Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Tuesday/Wednesday (5/6 January 2010)

Redsunset

God wicklow got and still is getting a hammering

zenno

yeah it just skirted by dublin. close though but no cigar.

Johnny1999

Just looked out of the window, not a thing! I am so dissapointed!

snaps

No overnight snow here, but cold and frosty, -2.9c

Mothman

2.9/-1.9C and drip drip drip
1cm lying but thawing quicker than it is being replenshed.

It was looking bad last night when M2 was reporting 5C Dp0C and it is 5/1C atm. Further inland and highernup will continue to get wintery showers mainly south of Dublin

Deep Easterly

This day last year (6th January 09) was the start of the coolest spell of winter 2008/09 over Ireland:



High pressure moved down from the north to bring the coolest lows of the winter to many areas between the 6th and 7th:

Derrygreenagh: -7.9c
Mullingar: -7.3c
Sraide: -7.0c
Oak Park: -7.0c
Ballygar: -6.7c
Dungarvan: -6.3c
Galway City: -6.0c
Casement: -5.3c

Data Source: http://www.met.ie/climate/monthlyBulletins/jan09_lores.pdf

The above chart exactly one year later: (Jan 2010)



Where high pressure was in 2009, low pressure sits in 2010.

Image source: http://en.vedur.is/weather/forecasts/atlantic/#teg=prec&type=temp

Johnny1999

Is that a good thing then deep easterly? It means more cold?

Deep Easterly

Johnny1999 wrote: »

Is that a good thing then deep easterly? It means more cold?

Low pressure to the south of Ireland this time of year is more likely to drag in cooler air from the north and east over us. The high pressure cell in the 2009 chart basically has the same effect but was a little to far south to drag in any sustained cold, but in itself, did bring some impressive minima during its short reign.

ninebeanrows

Hardly any snow here as expected.

A strong NE wind though.

Tis a strange one the Irish sea, have seen it create much more with much higher pressure and a slacker flow.

Graces7

After three weeks all changes; the hype has gone as we adapt and live alongside ice and snow.

Life goes on and the night hours are for rest.

All is a part of the daily life here now.

Heard something against the window in the night; but when I let the dogs out at 3 am, all seemed as last night.. clear starry sky, a cold that eats into the very bones..

The one item of washing left out is as stiiff as a board, waving eerily in the breeze.:) Snow ghost...

Check water; taps all are frozen again, so we recycle the hot water bottle water and seek out the bottled for coffee.

It is simply a part of life now as the days and nights pass.

The effect of long term cold is interesting; skin on heels has broken down, so a quiet day knitting etc today.. the pile of new born baby sets is growing nicely, white as the snow... hard to think of summer markets when the car has to be shaded against hot sun.

But it will come, so we build and work for that now.

Whatever comes...

Stay safe and warm..as we are here.
sat

DOCARCH

Not too much here overnight - a dusting of snow and graupel over existing snow. Still, day 7 of snow on the ground. North east wind never materialised - low over southern England never really moved overnight.

All eyes now in that blob of ppn over northern England. This could move across the Irish Sea during the morning but I think we still need winds to veer more to the east!

Redsunset

06.45

snaps

Just been watching the sky news weather, They seem to have NW airflow coming into Ireland from today? Is this right?

Also, theyve had some snow in S England! Some parts over 40cms!

snaps

Graces7 wrote: »

Check water; taps all are frozen again, so we recycle the hot water bottle water and seek out the bottled for coffee.

sat

Cant you defrost some snow for water.........But not the yellow snow!

DOCARCH

snaps wrote: »

Just been watching the sky news weather, They seem to have NW airflow coming into Ireland from today? Is this right?

Not sure - would not expect NW airflow today, just NE?

Light graupel shower here now.

Elmo5

Not one single snow flake here last night, absolutely gutted.

ciaran76

No ice even on my car this morning in D.15. Very strange.

Redsunset

MET EIREANN

06 January 2010 06:07

Today
Widespread sharp or severe frost this morning with icy roads and patches of freezing fog. Most places dry today with sunny spells. However further wintry showers of sleet and snow will affect east Leinster and scattered wintry showers will also develop in coastal regions of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster. Highest temperatures of just 0 to +4 degrees with fresh north to northeast winds
Tonight

Wintry showers of sleet and snow will persist tonight in coastal regions of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster. and there'll be a few further showers also on the east coast. Elsewhere, it will be dry with winds becoming light. Widespread severe frost and patches of freezing fog developing again. Lowest temperatures of -8 to 0 degrees


Tomorrow

Many areas dry on Thursday with sunny spells. Continuing very cold with further wintry showers of sleet or snow in coastal regions of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster. There's a risk of more persistent sleet and snow pushing in over west Ulster and Connacht in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 0 to +4 degrees.

Outlook

The weather is going to continue extremely cold across the country through Thursday night, Friday, the weekend and the early days of next week. There will be severe frosts and patches of freezing fog at night with temperatures well below 0 in many areas. Daytime temperatures will be in low single figures at best with frost slow to clear and sometimes persisting. THURSDAY NIGHT will be largely dry and calm. FRIDAY will be dry with good sunshine, though fog may persist in some sheltered areas. SATURDAY and SUNDAY will both be bright and mostly dry with moderate northeast winds, which will push some wintry showers of hail, sleet or snow on to Ulster and Leinster coasts. Winds will become mostly easterly through Sunday night and Monday with wintry showers becoming more prevalent on east and south coasts, while the rest of the country will be mostly dry.

snaps

ME forcast for tommorrow (Thursday)


Tomorrow

Many areas dry on Thursday with sunny spells. Continuing very cold with further wintry showers of sleet or snow in coastal regions of Ulster, Connacht and west Munster. There's a risk of more persistent sleet and snow pushing in over west Ulster and Connacht in the afternoon and evening. Highest temperatures of 0 to +4 degrees.


Interesting for us in the west!

ffarrell

God Met Eireann are really pathetic. Predicting heavy snow showers for the East yet I have not seen a snowflake in Castleknock!!! Their forecasts are so off!!:mad:

Mothman

ciaran76 wrote: »

No ice even on my car this morning in D.15. Very strange.

The strong wind is blowing maritime air quite far inland. Temps are above 0C

snaps

Mothman wrote: »

The strong wind is blowing maritime air quite far inland. Temps are above 0C

Not a breath of wind here, -2.7c?????

Deep Easterly

snaps wrote: »

Not a breath of wind here, -2.7c?????

A light NNW breeze here with temp falling once again. -3.3c currently.

Birdnuts

This mornings 00Z ECM is a real cracker - Sets up a proper Easterly for us from the weekend onwards, which should finally deleiver the goods for people who are still snow starved in much of North Leinster etc. This is reflected in Met Eireanns outlook for the province this morning:)

Deep Easterly

ffarrell wrote: »

God Met Eireann are really pathetic. Predicting heavy snow showers for the East yet I have not seen a snowflake in Castleknock!!! Their forecasts are so off!!:mad:

That is the nature of showers. Hit and miss which does not mean the Met are wrong.

Edit. Temp fell down to -3.6c all of a sudden.

Mothman

snaps wrote: »

Not a breath of wind here, -2.7c?????

The question was from someone in Dublin. You are not quite far inland from the Irish sea.

Near gale here and temperature is +3C

ninebeanrows

I wonder how that trough will react as it passes through the peninnes over Northeast England at the moment.

Will probably break up and die, but hopefully won't and will bubble up over the Irish Sea and hit us at 12 noon.

Snowaddict

Last night delivered for quite a few but not for as many as was originally modelled, that's for certain.

Overnight Guidance continues to show a continuation of Bitterly cold conditions persisting for another 5 Days. Beyond Day 6, there are some tentative signs of a breakdown in the pattern at the moment but that's very uncertain at this stage.

ECMWF 00Z

Overnight, ECMWF has held firm regarding the transition to an Easterly flow over the coming days. Despite pressure rising, with a deep cold being advected Westward over the Irish Sea, it is modelling quite a bit of snowfall potential into Eastern areas in an increasingly due Easterly flow. Again, 850mb temperatures are being modelled as -10 to -11 through Saturday, persisting at values of -8 to -9 even into next Monday.

Thursday

Tomorrow, Thursday will see a slacker Northerly airflow covering the country, with a blocking High situated in the Northern Mid Atlantic. During the day, a shallow feature will progress southwards, near to Atlantic coastal districts. There is the risk of sleet and snowfall from this, however ECMWF continues to not model much inland penetration of shower activity - although this is definitely something to watch closely.

It will remain extremely cold, with 850mb temperatures of -8 across the country:



Friday

Friday will again remain bitterly cold, with an increasing Easterly flow as the day goes on, with pressure building firmly over Scandinavia. The flow may be slightly Northeasterly at first, but will continue to back Easterly as it develops. There will be a significant wind chill factor, especially later in the day. 850mb temperatures will begin to decrease even further, approaching value of -9 later in the day. A severe and penetrating frost away from exposed Eastern areas:



Saturday

At the moment, ECMWF 00Z is holding firm on a very potent firm on a very potent Easterly flow during Saturday, with 850mb temperautres approaching -11. It would feel exceptionally cold in this rather strong Easterly airflow, with an increasing risk of snow showers in Eastern and Southeastern areas later in the day:



Sunday

The latest indications suggest that this Easterly flow will continue into Sunday, with an increasing risk of snow showers developing in Eastern areas.





Summary

Remaining very to bitterly cold at times over the coming 5 Days. A further risk of snowfall, potentially in Western areas later tomorrow. This risk then transfers to Eastern and Southeastern areas, as the airflow turns increasingly into the East. Saturday may well see the coldest 850mb temperatures of the period so far, approaching -10 to -11, with an increasing risk of associated snow flurries & snow showers. Any breakdown being modelled is currently beyond Day 5.

SA

Deep Easterly

Sharp fall in temp now. -3.8c. Dp now reading -7c. :pac:

Edit: now at -3.9c. will it make it to -4.0c? Come on!

Edit Edit: -4.0c! Not surprising to see the windspeed has dropped significantly as well. 1 mph 10 mean mean.

Edit Edit Edit: -4.3c

Redsunset

Weathercheck wrote: »

I wonder how that trough will react as it passes through the peninnes over Northeast England at the moment.

Will probably break up and die, but hopefully won't and will bubble up over the Irish Sea and hit us at 12 noon.

I think it will hit us around noon WC and give a better chance for those that missed out and i can perhaps see it travelling further inland.
Just my thoughts so not guaranteed people