Recession is over - Davy Stockbrokers

Liam79

Davy Stockbrokers basically saying Ireland will emerge from the recession in the first six months of this year :eek: Add that to the opinions of many respected economists and none other than Mr B Lenihan.....and maybe the Doomsday boys on here really will be proved wrong.
Maybe we really are on the way up...

Do all the self appointed economists and financial whiz kids on here disagree?

ei.sdraob

why dont you post a link and the whole of the (short) article?

http://www.breakingnews.ie/business/davy-predicts-end-of-recession-early-this-year-440731.html

Davy Stockbrokers are today forecasting Ireland should come out of recession in the first half of this year.

Its forecast suggests economic growth will start earlier than previously thought.

The firm is also warning however that growth will be dependent on the success of Nama, sustained global recovery and low interest rates.

emphasis above is added by me

Taxipete29

I have to agree with the emphasis on low interest rates. The ECB raising rates later in the year is widely predicted and any minor growth we my get in the first 6 months will be undone by this.

Sleepy

So a company who depend on a positive outlook for the economy for the vast majority of their business are making predictions based on fantasy assumptions in order to show a positive outlook for the economy?

Shocking!

LookBehindYou

Who owns Davy stockbrokers ?

Liam79

listen lads i am not saying i agree....nor am i saying they are wrong.....the point i am making is this
There are many (more and more by the day) respected economists and economic commentators now predicting the green shoots in spring 2010....and yet as soon as they do the usual heads in here start calling them...fantasists....idiots.....have agendas etc etc.....

It just seems this place is full of self appointed economic commentators who seem to regard the slightest sign of good news as populist diatribe and want us all to continue wallowing in the wave of self pity and depression the county is currently in.

Maybe ye are wrong lads.....maybe ye are wrong....!!!

God knows, I would listen to Davy's/Friends First before I would listen to some faceless "commentator" on here with a degree in photonics who feels qualified to tell us all whats going to happen in 2010 as a fact!!

ei.sdraob

Liam79 wrote: »

It just seems this place is full of self appointed economic commentators who seem to regard the slightest sign of good news as populist diatribe and want us all to continue wallowing in the wave of self pity and depression the county is currently in.

whose wallowing in self pity and depression?

[ sarcasm ] yes lets move on, lets forget what happened, by not learning from mistakes it cant happen again :rolleyes: [ /sarcasm ]

the country is out of recession according to some figures, this has been news a month ago, dont forget these very same stats and figures are manipulated

if this depression is over then we must learn from mistakes and ensure it doesnt happen again, so far i see no one being jailed and no legislation passed to prevent this from happening again

what i do see is:
* large unemployment
* corruption thru the whole system/society
* people responsible are not jailed, and some are still running the country
* people responsible have not admitted any wrongdoing
* nama hanging like bad smell for another few decades
* waste waste and more waste
* banks hanging on brink and relying on taxpayer
* we lost/wasted a decade


to sum it up do yo want to go back to good "olde" days of likes of Bertie telling people to commit suicide, or do you want something done about it and country on a new path?

Diarmuid

Liam79 wrote: »

God knows, I would listen to Davy's/Friends First before I would listen to some faceless "commentator" on here with a degree in photonics who feels qualified to tell us all whats going to happen in 2010 as a fact!!

How about making a judgement based on the quality of their arguments instead of their name?

Technically speaking it wouldn't be hard for Ireland to exit recession in 2010 as all it takes are 2 quarters of +ve GDP growth and we are already in marginal +ve territory .Whether that means anything for most Irish people is debatable, better looking at GNP which still is heading south.

bangersandmash

Wonder if this will be more accurate than their predictions for 2009? Not that wildly optimistic predictions are a new thing for them.

Taxipete29

Liam79 wrote: »

listen lads i am not saying i agree....nor am i saying they are wrong.....the point i am making is this
There are many (more and more by the day) respected economists and economic commentators now predicting the green shoots in spring 2010....and yet as soon as they do the usual heads in here start calling them...fantasists....idiots.....have agendas etc etc.....

It just seems this place is full of self appointed economic commentators who seem to regard the slightest sign of good news as populist diatribe and want us all to continue wallowing in the wave of self pity and depression the county is currently in.

Maybe ye are wrong lads.....maybe ye are wrong....!!!

God knows, I would listen to Davy's/Friends First before I would listen to some faceless "commentator" on here with a degree in photonics who feels qualified to tell us all whats going to happen in 2010 as a fact!!

I have to say I dont wallow in self pity and I am not depressed. I do however prefer to take a realistic view of what is and what may happen in the coming year.

You can choose to listen to whoever you want. Economists are not always right, they are not always wrong. Well informed people on here are the same. They are not always right but they are not always wrong. I do have to say that biased commentators like Davys may not be the best source of information on this subject.

imme

LookBehindYou wrote: »

Who owns Davy stockbrokers ?

from their website:
"Davy is an independent company owned by management and staff."
used to be in the hands of the banks but not anymore, this doesn't mean they're not trying to sell something, isn't everyone trying to sell something.

ei.sdraob

LookBehindYou wrote: »

Who owns Davy stockbrokers ?

go to http://www.cro.ie/search/

type in "davy" they have several companies (i can count 24 companies :eek: to my surpirse) registered in ireland, all of the companies have the address as 49, DAWSON STREET, DUBLIN 2.

you can then request of CRO various details about each company including who owns what and how much, its about a euro per report, you can pay online

seems they are are limited so theres probably less than 50 people who own this group of companies

Sleepy

Liam79 wrote: »

listen lads i am not saying i agree....nor am i saying they are wrong.....the point i am making is this
There are many (more and more by the day) respected economists and economic commentators now predicting the green shoots in spring 2010....and yet as soon as they do the usual heads in here start calling them...fantasists....idiots.....have agendas etc etc.....

It just seems this place is full of self appointed economic commentators who seem to regard the slightest sign of good news as populist diatribe and want us all to continue wallowing in the wave of self pity and depression the county is currently in.

Maybe ye are wrong lads.....maybe ye are wrong....!!!

God knows, I would listen to Davy's/Friends First before I would listen to some faceless "commentator" on here with a degree in photonics who feels qualified to tell us all whats going to happen in 2010 as a fact!!

We don't really need to argue with them tbh. As ei.sdraob pointed out: their own article does that for them when read by anyone following current affairs.

When their predicted growth is dependent on the success of Nama, sustained global recovery and low interest rates it's dependent on a fantasy.

NAMA not making a loss on the properties and getting the banks lending again has already been shown to be a nonsensical notion. It may lose less money than the alternatives but do we qualify that to be a success under the ideals it was created under?

Sustained global recovery as an assumption for this is something I wouldn't have a problem with. Continued low interest rates, however, can't be taken seriously as an assumption for any economic model in the EU. I'm not an academic or a professional economist but I've not heard of a single report contradicting predictions of interest rate rises in the coming year.

The article is nothing more than a re-print of some Davy's marketing material.

Sand

Youd be poorly advised to take Davy stockbrokers claims seriously. They have an agenda in encouraging a bullish attitude to investment given that it drums up business for them. Also they have been relentlessly, manically postive about everything Irish regardless of the reality.

Take Davys views on Bank of Ireland as noted by Shane Ross in his book, The Bankers ( well worth picking up by the way) - Davys were owned by Bank of Ireland, who they managed to theoretically become independant from in 2006. At that point Bank of Ireland shares were 16 euro. Davys advised investors they were worth 18.50 Euro. By February 2008 the Bank of Ireland shareprice had hit 9.59 Euro. Davys advised investors to buy them up, arguing Bank of Ireland was a low risk bank and a good place for investors to hide. By the start of 2009 the shares had fallen to 89 cents, Davys argued they should be bought as they were really worth 1.50 euro. By March 2009 the price had fallen to 12 cents.

Essentially Davys got it wrong again and again and again and again, when other more objective analysts (Soc Gen were advising investors to stay away given the risky portfolios that had been built up as long ago as 2006) were highlighting the dangers of Irish banks. Anyone who followed Davy's advice would have been wiped out. Their reports are just "press releases" to talk up banks and drum up bussiness from investors.

Also a few months ago, Davys was claiming that Bank of Ireland would not need any further capitalisation. We all know now that was a ridiculous assertion.

So yeah, essentially, Davys are not reliable. Id be more surprised if they werent talking up the economy or Irish banks or NAMA.

nesf

Sand wrote: »

Take Davys views on Bank of Ireland as noted by Shane Ross in his book, The Bankers ( well worth picking up by the way) - Davys were owned by Bank of Ireland, who they managed to theoretically become independant from in 2006. At that point Bank of Ireland shares were 16 euro. Davys advised investors they were worth 18.50 Euro. By February 2008 the Bank of Ireland shareprice had hit 9.59 Euro. Davys advised investors to buy them up, arguing Bank of Ireland was a low risk bank and a good place for investors to hide. By the start of 2009 the shares had fallen to 89 cents, Davys argued they should be bought as they were really worth 1.50 euro. By March 2009 the price had fallen to 12 cents.

And they peaked at over 3 Euro in September. They're trading at 1.60 atm. Someone who invested in BoI at 89 cents at the start of 2009 could have turned a very nice profit in Q3 of 2009. I wouldn't trust Davy's opinion on BoI in general but their advisory in Q1 2009 was reasonable.

Sand

Their current share price is propped up almost entirely by NAMA* which was not passed or even close to it back in Q1 2009. It was announced only back in April 2009, after the point shares fell to 12 cents. And a stopped clock is right at least twice a day.

*debateable of course but the "rally" began with the announcement of NAMA in April 2009 and has reacted sharply to news of just how badly screwed the taxpayer is going to be.

sold

Liam79 wrote: »

Davy Stockbrokers basically saying Ireland will emerge from the recession in the first six months of this year :eek: Add that to the opinions of many respected economists and none other than Mr B Lenihan.....and maybe the Doomsday boys on here really will be proved wrong.
Maybe we really are on the way up...

Do all the self appointed economists and financial whiz kids on here disagree?

Of course they are going to say this, markets is all about playing your cards and knowing when to feed optimism, to allow the economy to grow you need investor confidence, but this does not mean we are out of recession.

johnathan woss

nesf wrote: »

And they peaked at over 3 Euro in September. They're trading at 1.60 atm. Someone who invested in BoI at 89 cents at the start of 2009 could have turned a very nice profit in Q3 of 2009. I wouldn't trust Davy's opinion on BoI in general but their advisory in Q1 2009 was reasonable.

L-O-L

A stopped clock is right twice a day.
How would you be doing if you'd bought at 16euro ?


As Davy's let a load of staff go at the start of the recession I guess this means they must be hiring loads of new staff now..... right ? ........

nesf

johnathan woss wrote: »

L-O-L

A stopped clock is right twice a day.
How would you be doing if you'd bought at 16euro ?


As Davy's let a load of staff go at the start of the recession I guess this means they must be hiring loads of new staff now..... right ? ........

Nah, you miss my point. The last prediction made some sense. My silence on the other ones and comment about not trusting Davy should make my opinion of them clear.

hinault

Liam79 wrote: »

Davy Stockbrokers basically saying Ireland will emerge from the recession in the first six months of this year :eek: Add that to the opinions of many respected economists and none other than Mr B Lenihan.....and maybe the Doomsday boys on here really will be proved wrong.
Maybe we really are on the way up...

Do all the self appointed economists and financial whiz kids on here disagree?

Davy's are wrong.

galway2007

interest rates may not rise fast
Latest reports show german unemployed rate is rising again

parsi

Liam79 wrote: »

God knows, I would listen to Davy's/Friends First before I would listen to some faceless "commentator" on here with a degree in photonics who feels qualified to tell us all whats going to happen in 2010 as a fact!!

I'd listen to jimmmy sooner than I'd listen to one of those paid puppets from Davy et al

ei.sdraob

nesf wrote: »

Nah, you miss my point. The last prediction made some sense. My silence on the other ones and comment about not trusting Davy should make my opinion of them clear.

well of course it made sense, the stock was at rock bottom, not much else to fall

the problem was (And still is) whether the bank will be officially declared bankrupt (since they are) thats the main worry for investors

bush Baby

Sand wrote: »

Youd be poorly advised to take Davy stockbrokers claims seriously. They have an agenda in encouraging a bullish attitude to investment given that it drums up business for them. Also they have been relentlessly, manically postive about everything Irish regardless of the reality.

Take Davys views on Bank of Ireland as noted by Shane Ross in his book, The Bankers ( well worth picking up by the way) - Davys were owned by Bank of Ireland, who they managed to theoretically become independant from in 2006. At that point Bank of Ireland shares were 16 euro. Davys advised investors they were worth 18.50 Euro. By February 2008 the Bank of Ireland shareprice had hit 9.59 Euro. Davys advised investors to buy them up, arguing Bank of Ireland was a low risk bank and a good place for investors to hide. By the start of 2009 the shares had fallen to 89 cents, Davys argued they should be bought as they were really worth 1.50 euro. By March 2009 the price had fallen to 12 cents.

Essentially Davys got it wrong again and again and again and again, when other more objective analysts (Soc Gen were advising investors to stay away given the risky portfolios that had been built up as long ago as 2006) were highlighting the dangers of Irish banks. Anyone who followed Davy's advice would have been wiped out. Their reports are just "press releases" to talk up banks and drum up bussiness from investors.

Also a few months ago, Davys was claiming that Bank of Ireland would not need any further capitalisation. We all know now that was a ridiculous assertion.

So yeah, essentially, Davys are not reliable. Id be more surprised if they werent talking up the economy or Irish banks or NAMA.

Its no secret that Daveys and Bank of Ireland are joined at the hip however, as the board of directors of B of I are replaced, this may falter. Daveys and B of I's synergy has been good for both operations for years now. There have been so many novices entering the market over these past few years, they (Davey's) have gotten away with saying anything, including complete (how should I put it) quasi-purposeful inaccuracies.

Gurgle

Growth will be dependent on:

The success of Nama
Nama is a 10 year plan, how can any measure of success be seen in the first half 2010?
It can't possibly fail in 1h2010.

Sustained global recovery
Well duh!

Low interest rates
Funny one this - If there is growth in europe as a whole, then the ECB are likely to raise interest rates. They're not likely to raise them much in the first half of the year, as the economy is still soft at best.

So its a given that we'll have low interest rates for 1h2010.

So this report could be rephrased: Our economy will grow if the global economy grows.
I can't argue with that.

ragg

galway2007 wrote: »

interest rates may not rise fast
Latest reports show german unemployed rate is rising again

Not going to be touched till Q4 2010 or Q1 2011 when they will rise in .25% increments according to most commentators.

People here seem to assume that they are going to rocket up on a daily basis or something :rolleyes:

doylerd

Oh this is worthy of a cheeky LOL

wonder88

I think we are technicially in a recession now (3Q of decline in GDP), but we still have to listen to the experts in Davys on our media.

doylerd

Why anybody would ever listen to sell-side research and commentary is beyond me. It's in Davy's interest for the retail customer to become more active in trading ISEQ stocks, and so they will say what they must. In general they will talk up investor expectations to get the retail guy churning again and generate some commissions.

I worked there at the time the "recession over" prediction was made and knew the guy that made it, who now works for the NTMA. It was a win/win situation for him: make huge call on the Irish economy and if it comes off, he's a soothsayer, but if he's wrong, he quits and takes the NTMA job. The latter happened shortly after he was proved to be totally, entirely off the mark.

Make you own calls based on INDEPENDENT research; noted academics and buy-side (hedge fund/private equity) commentators will give a far better handle on reality.

antoobrien

wonder88 wrote: »

I think we are technicially in a recession now (3Q of decline in GDP), but we still have to listen to the experts in Davys on our media.

Nope, for recession it has to be two consecutive quarters of decline (they changed it from 3 quarters not so long ago). If it was any dip in GDP there'd be a recession every year.

G Power

if the recession does somehow end in the first 6 months of the year and we don't change the system we will be back here again soon enough crying about the same issues and refusing to admit to the real issues.

antoobrien

G Power wrote: »

if the recession does somehow end in the first 6 months of the year and we don't change the system we will be back here again soon enough crying about the same issues and refusing to admit to the real issues.

Yeah, same rubbish since 2010 - when we came out of the recession.