Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday

Graces7

Thankfully as we were always taught as children. " I want doesn;t get.."
Unless there is better provision for basic needs; I WANT does not get that either of course.Sadly

nacho libre wrote: »

yes indeed!
i want this to be a truly classic winter like those fabled years. i want this winter to take its place in the winter hall of fame alongside '63 and '47!

hotwhiskey

Take this with a pinch of salt but SKY weather after giving another WARNING for Ireland on Sunday

munsterlegend

eskimocat wrote: »

he is predicting that kids will be off school for the next two weeks...

in just doengal or does he do a nationwide forecast?

ffarrell

I said that their WINTERS are generally MILDER in Southern England if you look at the overall statistics. There have been plenty of times when it has been 1 or 2 degrees in Dublin and 10 degrees in London. One EXCEPTIONAL heavy snowfall in Southern England compared to a moderate one in Dublin (10-15 cm here in lots of places) does not make it colder.:rolleyes::rolleyes:. Look at the tempertaure in London yesterday and you will see that it was higher than in Dublin (-1 Dub against 0 Lon) and if you continue this throughout the winter and calculate the mean you will see that Dublin is colder by about 2-3 degreees on average.

munsterlegend

hotwhiskey wrote: »

Take this with a pinch of salt but SKY weather after giving another WARNING for Ireland on Sunday

any particular parts or all of us?

joe316

???

munsterlegend

Snowaddict wrote: »

Morning everyone

Again, fantastic to see such interest on here - this is truly a memorable spell of weather & is now classified as a Severe Wintry Outbreak.

With regard to the potential weekend, event, ECMWF is showing this to be mainly an event for Eastern & Southeastern areas. More marginality is mentioned after Monday because as shown on last night's UKMO Fax Chart, a warm front will approach from the Continent later in the weekend, marking the boundary between very cold and less cold upper air. However, its worth bearing in mind that with all of the snowcover now, we can easily generate our own cold pool that can modify precipitation falling.

This does appear to be mainly an event for the above areas, as indicated on the overnight ECMWF charts, however small changes could bring the precipitation further north & inland.

At the moment, counties most at risk appear to be Waterford, Kilkenny, Wicklow, Wexford, Carlow, Kildare & Dublin, with Louth and Eastern areas of Northern Ireland also being at risk somewhat later on. County Kerry also appears to be at risk.



850mb temperatures will become less cold next week, with a more continental Southeasterly airflow being established. However, there will still be a significant wind chill factor, with much less of a diurnal temperature range.

SA

does it just skip over cork?! more than likely it will like most snow events so far.

hotwhiskey

munsterlegend wrote: »

any particular parts or all of us?

All, except the far North

Deep Easterly

Since my last post, temp has risen with shocking alacrity to -3.9c. Wind now at 1mph mean so something is stirrin'!

ninebeanrows

6z GFS puts us in a Thawing Situation by Tuesday as drags alot of Med air into the flow over Europe from Saturday.

Looks like 4c in Dublin and persistent Drizzle by Tuesday from the 6z GFS.

eskimocat

munsterlegend wrote: »

in just doengal or does he do a nationwide forecast?

He wasn't specific, its local radio for the north west but he is sure that the cold snap is not over and that there was a couple of weeks left in it.

dizzydiesel

ffarrell wrote: »

I said that their WINTERS are generally MILDER in Southern England if you look at the overall statistics. There have been plenty of times when it has been 1 or 2 degrees in Dublin and 10 degrees in London. One EXCEPTIONAL heavy snowfall in Southern England compared to a moderate one in Dublin (10-15 cm here in lots of places) does not make it colder.:rolleyes::rolleyes:. Look at the tempertaure in London yesterday and you will see that it was higher than in Dublin (-1 Dub against 0 Lon) and if you continue this throughout the winter and calculate the mean you will see that Dublin is colder by about 2-3 degreees on average.

Sorry dude - I'm talking about mainland europe (germany, poland, italy, france etc) They are getting hammered with savage conditions and do have colder winters. The neighbours across the pond have very similar weather to us....although they may have more extreme conditions from time to time the mean temps are very closely matched.

Scubadevils

Weathercheck wrote: »

6z GFS puts us in a Thawing Situation by Tuesday as drags alot of Med air into the flow over Europe from Saturday.

Looks like 4c in Dublin and persistent Drizzle by Tuesday from the 6z GFS.

4c and drizzle, lovely I think thats about one of the worst types of weather we can have.

Pangea

dizzydiesel wrote: »

Over the last 5 years we barely even get frost build up on cars over night. year.

What? Youre having a laugh, Ive seen plenty of frosts last year never mind the last 5 years! Last Winter I had very bad ice and frost , my place was covered, my my how people have short memorys.

Snowaddict

Weathercheck wrote: »

6z GFS puts us in a Thawing Situation by Tuesday as drags alot of Med air into the flow over Europe from Saturday.

Looks like 4c in Dublin and persistent Drizzle by Tuesday from the 6z GFS.

GFS 06Z has been performing very badly lately, the 00Z evolution appears to be the most reliable, according to the verification statistics.. 00Z was more in line with the ECWMF 00Z evolution so I wouldn't worry too much at the moment, however a warming at the 850mb level at least is likely next week.

Leeside

Weathercheck wrote: »

6z GFS puts us in a Thawing Situation by Tuesday as drags alot of Med air into the flow over Europe from Saturday.

Looks like 4c in Dublin and persistent Drizzle by Tuesday from the 6z GFS.

If correct, that will put an end to our cold spell.

ffarrell

Look at the temperatures for Northern and Southern France. I lived there for years - in both Lille and Paris - not Poland. Northern France, Belgium..very similar pattern and winter temperatures. I repeat, look at the today's temperatures there and the last weeks. Dublin gas been much colder than Paris with heavy snow. Paris has been relatively mild althogh has gotten cod now. No snow however.

dizzydiesel

Pangea wrote: »

What? Youre having a laugh, Ive seen plenty of frosts last year never mind the last 5 years! Last Winter I had very bad ice and frost , my place was covered, my my how people have short memorys.

I moved to the midlands 6 years ago. Last year was the only year with more than 10 days frost on the windscreen....I leave for work at 7am.
The previous years seldom dropped to freezing.

Deep Easterly

Snowaddict wrote: »

GFS 06Z has been performing very badly lately, the 00Z evolution appears to be the most reliable, according to the verification statistics.. 00Z was more in line with the ECWMF 00Z evolution so I wouldn't worry too much at the moment, however a warming at the 850mb level at least is likely next week.

I agree there SA regarding GFS.

Lads, could you post model outlooks beyond todays event in the "Model Outlook thread" as your analysis will only be lost in here should a single flake of snow fall today

Pangea

dizzydiesel wrote: »

I think you misunderstand me - sounds like you agreeing.
So I'm just imagining -10 then? This is totally not the norm. -16 in parts of Carlow!

Statistically rest of europe wets harsher weather - more extreme heat and more extreme cold.

dizzydiesel wrote: »

There's a reason for that. Historically we get milder winters and cooler summers. It's our geographic position.
We are not prepared for this cold. Compared to every winter for the last 20 years- this is by far the longest cold spell. Over the last 5 years we barely even get frost build up on cars over night. Sub-zero temps during daylight is strange for us.
If this was the norm, then you can compare to other european countries......why not compare our summers with Spain!
Climates and averages are the basis of weather systems - this is not an average year.

I dont know why you are going into all this ,im merly saying that the rte weather girl said ireland was the warmest place in europe yesturday, dont be giving out to me :P

Pangea

dizzydiesel wrote: »

I moved to the midlands 6 years ago. Last year was the only year with more than 10 days frost on the windscreen....I leave for work at 7am.
The previous years seldom dropped to freezing.

Well thats the midlands then , dont paint the whole country with the same paint, Things are different up here in Donegal

vizualpics

Temps this morn on my drive to work varied alot, -3C in castlebar and no overnight snow, went 10 miles out the road to the east and there was about 2 inches of fresh snow, freezing fog and temps of -10 @ 8am, currently in ballina in north mayo and temps at the moment are -1.5 according to NRA...and there is about 1 inch of snow...heard a guy on newstalk this morn on about the cold spell lasting till march but with the odd pocket of mild weather, i.e temps getting up to 5-6 deg C...Could be in for a long winter....No more snow here yet...waiting for the big stuff after 12mid-day...

Su Campu

Looking at the evolution of the "pseudo-polar low" overnight, it would seem to have limited development so far. THe 06 UKMO FAX has it as a 1012 low at 60N 10W, with the cold front already decaying. The M4 buoy at 55N 10W will be a good indicator of what's happening as the low centre moves very close to it over the next couple of hours. M4 Hourly Pressure Chart

From 850hPa ThetaW charts it would seem that as it nears the far west and northwest coast there is potential for certainly snow high up on the mountains of western Connemara, with rain, sleet, snow and freezing rain getting lighter at lower levels as you move further east towards the Shannon.

This pattern continues moving southwards throughtout the afternoon, diminishing as it does, but still bringing snow on mountains of Clare and Kerry above about 100-200 metres until around 9pm.

hotwhiskey

Pangea wrote: »

What? Youre having a laugh, Ive seen plenty of frosts last year never mind the last 5 years! Last Winter I had very bad ice and frost , my place was covered, my my how people have short memorys.

Yes i agree

Graces7

Just spent a while on the phone re prescription meds.

There are no contingency plans in Donegal for getting meds to isolated people.. Not even heart meds.

If you don't have someone to collect and bring?

Thankfully we always use the same pharmacy and our meds are on record there. And also when they have run out of items, they have posted them. So that is what they will do now.

It took a while to persuade them to do that though.

When I went into the room here I do not use just now - usually workroom. there is water on the floor by the press containing the immersion heater /tank.... :rolleyes:

The plumbing here is Heath Robinson; it is not from the loft as the bedding in the press above and by the tank is dry. It is all frozen anyways today so I have turned off what i am sure is the stopcock..
Cannot raise the landlord, but sure; nothing he could do anyways....

dizzydiesel

Pangea wrote: »

Well thats the midlands then , dont paint the whole country with the same paint, Things are different up here in Donegal

I know only too well. Friends in Sligo - they get some nasty stuff up there. :eek:

icescreamqueen

Does anyone know what the walking situation is like out there? Is it very slippy? I'm in Dublin 12 and was not prepared for this weather so have absolutely no food in the cupboard. I need to venture out to the shops.

ragg

Weathercheck wrote: »

Looks like 4c in Dublin and persistent Drizzle by Tuesday

You really dont know what you've got till its gone

Graces7

Depends where you are; Ireland is a very diverse country.

Here in Donegal Dec 2008 it was taking half an hour to de-ice the car every weekend to get to market.

But where you are is very different.

Interesting and the reason this is such a good forum. Wide ranging....

dizzydiesel wrote: »

I moved to the midlands 6 years ago. Last year was the only year with more than 10 days frost on the windscreen....I leave for work at 7am.
The previous years seldom dropped to freezing.

Pangea

Snowing here now in S.Donegal