Cold Spell & Snowfall Discussion Part 2 (Eagle says Polar Low) Wednesday/Thursday

revr

irish1967 wrote: »

And some even know where in Donegal !;)

do you know redcastle hotel - I go every year - always great weather round those parts tho I play on the golf course!

typhooner

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have you noticed ever since Copenhagen, the whole world has been freezing its collective arse off?

I'm declaring unilateral victory over global warming, start the car !!!

Anyway, update from the 18z GFS (everyone's favourite drunk, so to speak).

It does show a slight upgrade to snowfall potential in Ireland tomorrow, my earlier forecast is hereby tweaked to suggest 4-6 cm potential in a rather ragged zone that includes basically any county that does not touch salt water (for more than ten miles, you know who you are, even if I don't).

There could even be some weak sea effect in the southeast again due to a gradual turning of winds from N to E during the day. And when we're dealing with "weak" snowfall in very cold conditions, the snow to water ratio may jump up and surprise us with a deep mantle of very fluffy snow, sometimes, it's not as simple as 2 mm of rain equals 2 cm of snow if the ratio is 20 or 30 to 1, then 2 mm of rain equals 4 or 6 cms of snow.

There was no upgrade to the Sunday situation from what I could see, perhaps a slight downgrade to it.

People are bound to notice some very low overnight readings over fresh snow cover that is radiating like mad -- at your latitude in Canada or continental Europe, even central England, with the kind of upper temperature dynamics now in place, it could easily fall well below -20 C on a night with clear sky conditions given 5-10 cms of fresh snow cover, it totally insulates the ground below from affecting the low-level atmosphere, so it's basically a question of how much moderation the surrounding seas might have, because essentially the conditions are there for rapid radiational cooling and a few -12 to -15 readings next few nights would not surprise me at all. They might not show up at official weather stations, but some in NI are already well down there. Calm winds help too, because then slightly milder air from another location can't blow in to replace the very cold air over your snow cover.

why speak in Riddles or maybe i is fick

maquiladora

18Z NOGAPS gives what looks like the mother of all snowfests. If snow showers brought Dublin to a hault today, this would be The Day After Tomorrow...




But its NOGAPS....;)

jenzz

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have you noticed ever since Copenhagen, the whole world has been freezing its collective arse off?

I'm declaring unilateral victory over global warming, start the car !!!

Anyway, update from the 18z GFS (everyone's favourite drunk, so to speak).

It does show a slight upgrade to snowfall potential in Ireland tomorrow, my earlier forecast is hereby tweaked to suggest 4-6 cm potential in a rather ragged zone that includes basically any county that does not touch salt water (for more than ten miles, you know who you are, even if I don't).

There could even be some weak sea effect in the southeast again due to a gradual turning of winds from N to E during the day. And when we're dealing with "weak" snowfall in very cold conditions, the snow to water ratio may jump up and surprise us with a deep mantle of very fluffy snow, sometimes, it's not as simple as 2 mm of rain equals 2 cm of snow if the ratio is 20 or 30 to 1, then 2 mm of rain equals 4 or 6 cms of snow.

There was no upgrade to the Sunday situation from what I could see, perhaps a slight downgrade to it.

People are bound to notice some very low overnight readings over fresh snow cover that is radiating like mad -- at your latitude in Canada or continental Europe, even central England, with the kind of upper temperature dynamics now in place, it could easily fall well below -20 C on a night with clear sky conditions given 5-10 cms of fresh snow cover, it totally insulates the ground below from affecting the low-level atmosphere, so it's basically a question of how much moderation the surrounding seas might have, because essentially the conditions are there for rapid radiational cooling and a few -12 to -15 readings next few nights would not surprise me at all. They might not show up at official weather stations, but some in NI are already well down there. Calm winds help too, because then slightly milder air from another location can't blow in to replace the very cold air over your snow cover.

Hey MT

Thanks so m,uch for such accurrate forscasts. Quick Q.... My local station is down on the beach. Their snow melted. I still have 10cm about 1mile up the road & 60m ASL. They are reading -.3. DP-4.5. What sort of temp are we looking at ?

snaps

jenzz wrote: »

Everyone in weather knows Pangea is donegal...............:)

Does he/she know how to update their profile?

Pangea

irish1967 wrote: »

And some even know where in Donegal !;)

Ok i admit 1967 has the dirt , be quiet lol

nacho libre wrote: »

how much exactly has accumulated out of that shower. by the way did you see that picture on the news of the frozen lake near ballybofey? i was up there last week and like an idiot forgot to bring my camera. Benbulben also looked spectacular.

Yes i seen the pic of the lake ,very nice indeed! Imagine people going on the quads on it lol
I suppose gave us around an inch of snow , it was nice and not expected at all.

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Have you noticed ever since Copenhagen, the whole world has been freezing its collective arse off?

I'm declaring unilateral victory over global warming, start the car !!!

Anyway, update from the 18z GFS (everyone's favourite drunk, so to speak).

It does show a slight upgrade to snowfall potential in Ireland tomorrow, my earlier forecast is hereby tweaked to suggest 4-6 cm potential in a rather ragged zone that includes basically any county that does not touch salt water (for more than ten miles, you know who you are, even if I don't).

There could even be some weak sea effect in the southeast again due to a gradual turning of winds from N to E during the day. And when we're dealing with "weak" snowfall in very cold conditions, the snow to water ratio may jump up and surprise us with a deep mantle of very fluffy snow, sometimes, it's not as simple as 2 mm of rain equals 2 cm of snow if the ratio is 20 or 30 to 1, then 2 mm of rain equals 4 or 6 cms of snow.

There was no upgrade to the Sunday situation from what I could see, perhaps a slight downgrade to it.

People are bound to notice some very low overnight readings over fresh snow cover that is radiating like mad -- at your latitude in Canada or continental Europe, even central England, with the kind of upper temperature dynamics now in place, it could easily fall well below -20 C on a night with clear sky conditions given 5-10 cms of fresh snow cover, it totally insulates the ground below from affecting the low-level atmosphere, so it's basically a question of how much moderation the surrounding seas might have, because essentially the conditions are there for rapid radiational cooling and a few -12 to -15 readings next few nights would not surprise me at all. They might not show up at official weather stations, but some in NI are already well down there. Calm winds help too, because then slightly milder air from another location can't blow in to replace the very cold air over your snow cover.

no offense intended but it would be great if you were both right and wrong in this forecast

billy the squid

jenzz wrote: »

Hey MT

Thanks so m,uch for such accurrate forscasts. Quick Q.... My local station is down on the beach. Their snow melted. I still have 10cm about 1mile up the road & 60m ASL. They are reading -.3. DP-4.5. What sort of temp are we looking at ?

Their snow melting might have to do with the presence of salt rather than the tempreture.

poolboy

i just played the sky weather forecast video and nearly wet myself when i saw sunday please somebody tell me they are right:eek:

irish1967

revr wrote: »

do you know redcastle hotel - I go every year - always great weather round those parts tho I play on the golf course!

Oh dear God..lmao:o

revr

maquiladora wrote: »

18Z NOGAPS gives what looks like the mother of all snowfests. If snow showers brought Dublin to a hault today, this would be The Day After Tomorrow...


But its NOGAPS....;)

Thats why a warning is out for N.Ireland from the met office for Sunday. They expecting something

Pangea

snaps wrote: »

Does he/she know how to update their profile?

Do you know how to read my last posts, Anyone that has a problem with me I suggest them to contact the moderator instead of cluttering the forum.
Enough is Enough.

A Dub in Glasgo

Hope you enjoyed all your snow, this cold spell is not leading to much snow for the West of Scotland. It is galling to see we have been sub zero for 3 weeks and then that fantastic band of snow skips over us and goes to England yesterday We need more winds from the East so that the North Sea percip can be blown towards Glasgow.

-9.2c here with some fantastic sparkling on the snow

revr

irish1967 wrote: »

Oh dear God..lmao:o

what? goin to a hotel is funny?

jenzz

snaps wrote: »

Does he/she know how to update their profile?

But we all know she be there ...........

nacho libre

Pangea wrote: »

Ok i admit 1967 has the dirt , be quiet lol


Yes i seen the pic of the lake ,very nice indeed! Imagine people going on the quads on it lol
I suppose gave us around an inch of snow , it was nice and not expected at all.

i really hope there are no idiots going out walking on it
anyway, i think the snowfall you don't expect is nearly always the best.

DOCARCH

poolboy wrote: »

i just played the sky weather forecast video and nearly wet myself when i saw sunday please somebody tell me they are right:eek:

Hope it's not quite right, when I looked earlier, I think it was showing 5c in Dublin!

pistolpetes11

If i remember correctly, that TV3 news report should be on in a few mins ,They went up in to the Roundwood , Co Wicklow

pad199207

down to -11.2c here in Naas co kildare

irish1967

Cork & Kerry ,mentioned for snow tomorrow on Sky News

snaps

temps leveling out here, not dropping much in the last hour. Currently -8.1c, im hoping for double figures of more than -11.3c.

jenzz

:eek:

pad199207 wrote: »

down to -11.2c here in Naas co kildare

maquiladora

NOGAPS 18Z is actually kinda scary between 84 and 120 hours. As much as I love snow, that would be too much.

Lets hope this isnt the 1 in 100 time that it gets it right.

Carroller16

flying to Liverpool on Friday morn and coming back Sunday evening....Wats my chances?

Pangea

nacho libre wrote: »

i really hope there are no idiots going out walking on it

*Puts away blackberry and sneaks off the frozen lake :pac:

revr

Sky news always overdo temps - Plus half the time they more focused on Europe than the UK and Ireland weather!

irish1967

Baltinglass in the lead on the NRA table... -10.7

Villain

Just hit -12c in Tullow

irish1967

Carroller16 wrote: »

flying to Liverpool on Friday morn and coming back Sunday evening....Wats my chances?

If all goes to plan.. no need to fly.. you can skate over:)

pistolpetes11

Get a load of your man, hardcore , out in his housecoat clearing the snow !

greenpeter

Carroller16 wrote: »

flying to Liverpool on Friday morn and coming back Sunday evening....Wats my chances?

You mite be able drive over its that cold.:D

Timistry

irish1967 wrote: »

Cork & Kerry ,mentioned for snow tomorrow on Sky News

really? Hope it turns out that way.

pistolpetes11

pad199207 wrote: »

down to -11.2c here in Naas co kildare

Where you getting that reading from ?

-6.2 in Newbridge bit of a rise from -6.4 at 10pm

gpod123

Got about 2 inches here (West Donegal) in last 2 hours

nacho libre

maquiladora wrote: »

NOGAPS 18Z is actually kinda scary between 84 and 120 hours. As much as I love snow, that would be too much.

Lets hope this isnt the 1 in 100 time that it gets it right.

i can't believe i'm reading such blasphemy;)

no need to worry as we both that it's not going to happen

revr

Doubt it, sky news are lazy and use charts 10 hours old before they do a forecast!

ninebeanrows

Villain wrote: »

Just hit -12c in Tullow

Time to put your taps on a trickle i would say.

Thats colddddddd :eek:

maquiladora

Timistry wrote: »

really? Hope it turns out that way.

Its hit or miss...Kerry might get a dumping or nothing at all. At the moment looks like it wont be too bad.

Timistry

Its unreal the difference that snowfields are having on the temp.

maquiladora

nacho libre wrote: »

no need to worry as we both that it's not going to happen

Now youve gone and jinxed it! :pac:

SpitfireIV

Villain wrote: »

Just hit -12c in Tullow

Jesus!!! -12c?! I'm only -4.2c here at the moment.

jenzz

The rescue chopper has just gone over me - Please dont say some tool went up the mountains in that cos they heading that way :mad:

leincar

-10.3c in Ballon. Temp for me gone down 3 degrees in just under an hour.

I won't get to the dizzying low that Villian is getting.

eigrod

jenzz wrote: »

The rescue chopper has just gone over me - Please dont say some tool went up the mountains in that cos they heading that way :mad:

Just heard it over Greystones at 11.08pm.

Edit : Might be Dick Roche getting a lift home ;-)

eskimocat

sorry was away there for a while... am i getting this right that there has been a shift in where this thing is supposed to land and that north leitrim is out of the running AGAIN!!!! drat i can't turn my back on this computer for one minute... and ye go and loose me snow somewhere down mayo or galway...:p

dublincelt

Villain wrote: »

Just hit -12c in Tullow

Villain, I am a few KM's from you in Carlow town. Is that a correct reading?!
Presently -6.3C on Browneshill Road. What a difference, I have your weather station page saved as a tab in Firefox, I view it every day and it is great by the way.

Danno

Quick look around the country...

Tullow -12.4c
Monaghan -10.2c
Newbridge -9.7c
Saggart -7.6
Colooney Sligo -7.5c
Johnstown KK -7.4C

ninebeanrows

Its literally 2/3 cm thick ice on the ground everywhere, almost unbreakable ice :eek:

pistolpetes11

This must be the busiest room in the house


432 (153 members & 279 guests)

WolfeIRE

minus 5.5c here. Calm. Starry starry night

On a separate note, today's post of the day is pretty funny:D
http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63803448&postcount=1