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Big Freeze Discussion (Friday 8/1/10)
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CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »
is that not just a pic of some frozen snow on a wire?
Edit. was a bit slow, sorry
.💙 💛 💙 💛 💙 💛
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always wondered what snow on the washing line looked like from below!CroppyBoy1798 wrote: »Temp peaked at 0.6c just before lunch, its currently falling again and is now -0.5c. This mornings low was -8.5c at 6.43am.
That freezing fog has all the trees looking even whiter today than yesterday, frikkin' white trees!!! Its beautiful!!
Feel like digging out the oil paints again!
Edit: My brother captured this strange cloud formation earlier today!! :P Its not an altered pic!!!0 -
For the first time today I have had a chance to look at some runs for sunday and monday. Most agree that there will be very heavy snow for much of the southern half of the country at least. Based on these charts the snow could fall in many parts for 3-4 days. I think it is more likely to snow in coastal areas than sleet/rain looking at these charts.
Now is a time for calm i know as things can change but you cannot help but be taken aback looking at some of these charts.
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I leave a tap in the bathroom running with a light flow so the pipes cannot/less likely to freeze over.
The estate here has its own water supply, which is currently an icerink with snow on top. So far I am restraining the overpowering urge to go racing around on it on a quadbike..
LOL, well, even the pro's are accident prone when it comes to ice!
Ouch, you can hear the bones breaking!
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For those with freezing pipes issues (I had this a couple of weeks back..)
1. dont leave a tap running to avoid it, we had no water for 4 days as the reservoir was drained by people doing this amongst other things.
2. Do go to your attic now and check that all copper pipes have insulation. If you cant afford insulation just tape newspaper around them, 4 or 5 sheets has a massive impact.
3. check to see if you have 2 tanks, a big one and a much smaller one. If the smaller one has water in then you can still have the heating on even if your main water is cut off.
4. If your pipes do freeze, open the loft hatch and leave it open, this way they will defrost (makes your house colder though).
5. Once defrosted, either lag or leave heating on with loft hatch open.
6. If your mains is cut off, you still have water in the tank, preserve this by not flushing loos unless you really have to
and stocking up dishes and washing them all at once.
7. Melting snow for water is a good idea but a bucket of snow can take 3 days to melt and leaves you with 1/3 of a bucket of water.
Hope this helps. Feel free to correct me if you need.0 -
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+1 on all the above. Except, if you have a private water supply, then leaving a tap running somewhat is a good idea if a severe temperature drop is expected. There's always the small risk of a well going dry so don't go overboard. But having a frozen pump is really not fun to deal with.For those with freezing pipes issues (I had this a couple of weeks back..)
1. dont leave a tap running to avoid it, we had no water for 4 days as the reservoir was drained by people doing this amongst other things.
2. Do go to your attic now and check that all copper pipes have insulation. If you cant afford insulation just tape newspaper around them, 4 or 5 sheets has a massive impact.
3. check to see if you have 2 tanks, a big one and a much smaller one. If the smaller one has water in then you can still have the heating on even if your main water is cut off.
4. If your pipes do freeze, open the loft hatch and leave it open, this way they will defrost (makes your house colder though).
5. Once defrosted, either lag or leave heating on with loft hatch open.
6. If your mains is cut off, you still have water in the tank, preserve this by not flushing loos unless you really have to and stocking up dishes and washing them all at once.
7. Melting snow for water is a good idea but a bucket of snow can take 3 days to melt and leaves you with 1/3 of a bucket of water.
Hope this helps. Feel free to correct me if you need.0 -
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To_be_confirmed wrote: »Where I live and back home both are east of the M1/M50/M11. Back home is a bit of a disaster, the particular hill I live on is too steep to drive on so for my family to go to work, they have to walk half a mile on said slippery lane to do it. I do know what I said about it was a guideline, and was specifically about organised snowfall coming from the east or southeast in general.
The hirlam model has verified a bit better but yesterday's Eagle Low damaged my confidence in it. In this situation, forecaster experience and personal experience is what I'd wager on. The airflow over the irish sea looks conducive for shower development, with the windspeed and fetch and depth of the cold all counteracting the pressure. But of course not much has to change to make it different.
What worries me most is the GFS dewpoint predictions. Unacceptably marginal on the east coast from midday Sunday onwards.
They dont look too bad ....
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It will not be too far out if the winds do pick up from the east. Precip will be hit and miss and will vary in intensity from location to location. Will give a few cm in places.pistolpetes11 wrote: »Could this be counted as reliable at 30 hours out ?
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To_be_confirmed wrote: »Where I live and back home both are east of the M1/M50/M11. Back home is a bit of a disaster, the particular hill I live on is too steep to drive on so for my family to go to work, they have to walk half a mile on said slippery lane to do it. I do know what I said about it was a guideline, and was specifically about organised snowfall coming from the east or southeast in general.
The hirlam model has verified a bit better but yesterday's Eagle Low damaged my confidence in it. In this situation, forecaster experience and personal experience is what I'd wager on. The airflow over the irish sea looks conducive for shower development, with the windspeed and fetch and depth of the cold all counteracting the pressure. But of course not much has to change to make it different.
What worries me most is the GFS dewpoint predictions. Unacceptably marginal on the east coast from midday Sunday onwards.
I cannot stress enough that HIRLAM did not model inland penetration of precipitation, I am adament of that, I checked it four times & it certainly did not show this. It showed the main disturbance centred in the Atlantic and moving south, not inland, with a risk of coastal wintry showers, which is exactly what happened.
I agree with your points as above though, it could turn more marginal later on near the coast, as did the February 2009 event, but inland should be fine.
Another point to make, the 528 DAM line is not as important when we are dealing with a Continental Easterly. Snowfall has occured on the continent before in Dam Heights of 546 DAM air, incredibly!
Precipitation looks to be fairly light, perhaps moderate in the Southeast, but it's persistence is proving to be the troubling factor.
Notably, pressure declines to 1020MB in the South on Sunday, those pressure levels are more acceptable.
I posted some days ago about the evolution on 31 Dec 96/ 1 Jan 1997, being very similar to this one & it does appear that way. Again, pressure was relatively high at 1020MB - 1025MB, but this delivered decent snowfall to many Southeastern areas.
It's still far from certain at the moment but I would put the risk at about 60% for increasingly persistent outbreaks of light snow in Eastern & Southeastern areas from Sunday afternoon onwards. Also worth noting that an inversion layer will have formed at this point with snowcover and the depth of cold that is in place, once 850mb temperatures increase this will become relevant. In the UK, snowfall has been recorded with 850mb Temperatures of 0C because of snowcover.
All very interesting & the potential is certainly there.
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would anyone mind telling me briefly what today has in store for Dublin? Ive been looking back through pages, but theres a lot of sqabbling to sort thru. so if anyone could Id be grateful
Cold and clear. Possibly a light shower or two popping up somewhere. Got lucky here earlier and got a little top up 0 -
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