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Big Freeze Discussion (Friday 8/1/10)
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Snowaddict wrote: »I cannot stress enough that HIRLAM did not model inland penetration of precipitation, I am adament of that, I checked it four times & it certainly did not show this. It showed the main disturbance centred in the Atlantic and moving south, not inland, with a risk of coastal wintry showers, which is exactly what happened.
I agree with your points as above though, it could turn more marginal later on near the coast, as did the February 2009 event, but inland should be fine.
Another point to make, the 528 DAM line is not as important when we are dealing with a Continental Easterly. Snowfall has occured on the continent before in Dam Heights of 546 DAM air, incredibly!
Precipitation looks to be fairly light, perhaps moderate in the Southeast, but it's persistence is proving to be the troubling factor.
Notably, pressure declines to 1020MB in the South on Sunday, those pressure levels are more acceptable.
I posted some days ago about the evolution on 31 Dec 96/ 1 Jan 1997, being very similar to this one & it does appear that way. Again, pressure was relatively high at 1020MB - 1025MB, but this delivered decent snowfall to many Southeastern areas.
It's still far from certain at the moment but I would put the risk at about 60% for increasingly persistent outbreaks of light snow in Eastern & Southeastern areas from Sunday afternoon onwards. Also worth noting that an inversion layer will have formed at this point with snowcover and the depth of cold that is in place, once 850mb temperatures increase this will become relevant. In the UK, snowfall has been recorded with 850mb Temperatures of 0C because of snowcover.
All very interesting & the potential is certainly there.
SA
sa, is the hirlam model the one you mentioned as being the most reliable in predicting the track of precipitation so far during this cold period?0 -
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Snowaddict wrote: »I cannot stress enough that HIRLAM did not model inland penetration of precipitation, I am adament of that, I checked it four times & it certainly did not show this. It showed the main disturbance centred in the Atlantic and moving south, not inland, with a risk of coastal wintry showers, which is exactly what happened.
SA
this was posted in the early AM yesterday
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nacho libre wrote: »sa, is the hirlam model the one you mentioned that had been most reliable in predicting the track of precipitation so far during this cold period?
Hi Nacho,
Yes indeed it is. UKMO NAE for example didn't predict the snowfall on Wednesday in the East & Southeast where as ECMWF/Hirlam did. Even during rainfall events, HIRLAM has always been very accurate, especially at T+24..
Did you know that Jean Byrne worked on the development/enhancement of the HIRLAM model, as well as other NWP Guidance.
SA 0 -
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What we have been facing here the last three weeks is not fresh snow, but deep compacted ice. Exacerbated when there is a light sun thaw, or a little rain and then it freezes over again.
Around three inches deep in places right across the minor roads.
"Learning to drive" as you put it is not possible in these conditions, when neither gears nor brakes prevent a gravitational slide.
No amount of skill or experience helds then.
Many men tried to drive my car; some ended her up in the ditch.
And this has been so for three weeks now on many side roads.Snow chains are legal here but should only be used on snow more than an inch or two deep. They will damage roads if the snow isn't deep enough and should be taken off as soon as you reach less snow or clear roads.TBH your friend would be far better off learning to drive on the kind of snow we get here which isn't really deep enough to warrant the use of chains and occurs about every third tuesday in lent.
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Snowaddict wrote: »Hi Nacho,
Yes indeed it is. UKMO NAE for example didn't predict the snowfall on Wednesday in the East & Southeast where as ECMWF/Hirlam did. Even during rainfall events, HIRLAM has always been very accurate, especially at T+24..
Did you know that Jean Byrne worked on the development/enhancement of the HIRLAM model, as well as other NWP Guidance.
SA
thanks SA:)
no i did not know that about her, that's certainly very impressive:). do you know anything else about her. like where she likes to goes out:p
but on a more serious note i won't get my hopes up for snow making it this far west so.0 -
Snowaddict wrote: »I cannot stress enough that HIRLAM did not model inland penetration of precipitation, I am adament of that, I checked it four times & it certainly did not show this. It showed the main disturbance centred in the Atlantic and moving south, not inland, with a risk of coastal wintry showers, which is exactly what happened. SA
This one as well SA. I knew i didn't imagine it
http://wwww.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63846936&postcount=880
DMI.DK Hirlam 06z run
HIRLAM get it completely wrong yesterday0 -
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This was posted in the early AM yesterday
Indeed & look how accurate it was, no feature running down across the bulk of the West, any heavy or sustained precipitation is kept offshore. Light, transitory precip in parts of Mayo & Galway, progressing southwards. In addition, light snow showers off Eastern coasts, but not penetrating inland - one or two very light flurries clipping the extreme East Coast - that's exactly what happened also.
In terms of accuracy, that was very accurate.0 -
I prefer it my way; and in that case I quoted phrases in the text .. and yes, DEFINITELY the wrong side of the bed!!!
NinjaTruncs wrote: »I would say he is complaining that you are putting the quote under you reply like this
Where most people put there reply under the quote like this. He must have gotton out of the wrong side of the bed.0 -
Snowaddict wrote: »Hi Nacho,
Yes indeed it is. UKMO NAE for example didn't predict the snowfall on Wednesday in the East & Southeast where as ECMWF/Hirlam did. Even during rainfall events, HIRLAM has always been very accurate, especially at T+24..
Did you know that Jean Byrne worked on the development/enhancement of the HIRLAM model, as well as other NWP Guidance.
SA
what outfits did she wear when working on that development/enhancement?!0 -
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the best way round this is to leave an electric heater on in the attic and checking on it every coupe of hours. leaving the hatch open and the heating on isnt a great idea ya may just throw your money in the fire all you'll end up with is a cold house and a cold attic.For those with freezing pipes issues (I had this a couple of weeks back..)
1. dont leave a tap running to avoid it, we had no water for 4 days as the reservoir was drained by people doing this amongst other things.
2. Do go to your attic now and check that all copper pipes have insulation. If you cant afford insulation just tape newspaper around them, 4 or 5 sheets has a massive impact.
3. check to see if you have 2 tanks, a big one and a much smaller one. If the smaller one has water in then you can still have the heating on even if your main water is cut off.
4. If your pipes do freeze, open the loft hatch and leave it open, this way they will defrost (makes your house colder though).
5. Once defrosted, either lag or leave heating on with loft hatch open.
6. If your mains is cut off, you still have water in the tank, preserve this by not flushing loos unless you really have to and stocking up dishes and washing them all at once.
7. Melting snow for water is a good idea but a bucket of snow can take 3 days to melt and leaves you with 1/3 of a bucket of water.
Hope this helps. Feel free to correct me if you need.0 -
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munsterlegend wrote: »what outfits did she wear when working on that development/enhancement?!
LOL! I don't know now, maybe something of a Scandinavian influence, Swedish/Danish perhaps
On a more serious note, it will be interesting to see just who is doing the forecast this evening. I wonder will Evelyn be on?
SA 0 -
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Snowaddict wrote: »LOL! I don't know now, maybe something of a Scandinavian influence, Swedish/Danish perhaps
On a more serious note, it will be interesting to see just who is doing the forecast this evening. I wonder will Evelyn be on?
SA
SA. Did you see that HIRLAM?
http://wwww.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=63846936&postcount=880
It was wrong. No need for you to apologise:p0 -
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Snowaddict wrote: »LOL! I don't know now, maybe something of a Scandinavian influence, Swedish/Danish perhaps
On a more serious note, it will be interesting to see just who is doing the forecast this evening. I wonder will Evelyn be on?
SA
They should bring out the big guns for that one. Lord Aidan Nulty for example....;)0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sdmkA-r9cds
This discussion has been closed.
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