Big Freeze Discussion (Friday 8/1/10)

Snowaddict

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Even the latest fax goes for a breakdown next Tuesday to less cold.
It sums up Met E when they say another 10days at least:rolleyes:

The breakdown is a cert, but the odds are favouring a swift return to cold at the moment. Still though a breakdown is imminent, expect a subtle change in forecasters words tomorrow

A certainty like the HP that was going to sink & that there would be no snowfall in this setup? The odds don't favour a swift return to cold. If the breakdown is sluggish & not definite & areas of low pressure are deflected as they approach, then that allows for a re-load or a persistence of at least a certain level of cold. If LP however breaks through then the pattern could be completely disrupted.

An area of positive height anomolies will remain in place to the North/North East of the UK & Ireland for some time to come. How they will affect us - no one really knows yet.

Regarding the FAX charts, yes they model a moderate Southeasterly / SSE airflow but do they (T+120 that is) show LP having advanced in over the country - not at the moment.

More interestingly they indicate an area of snowfall arriving from the Southeast at T+72 with more widespread outbreaks of snow between T+72 and T+96..

The T+120 chart is the exact same as the Raw UKMO Data Model Output.

Yes it will get less cold into next week, because of the Easterly, later trending Southeasterly flow. Is that a complete breakdown of the pattern - not to my eyes but then NWP guidance changes so quickly we could have a completely different scenario before us tomorrow & another one by 18 Hours tomorrow - that's the nature of it - very unpredictable.

JanuarySnowstor

beeb newsnight forecast showed the whole southern half of Ireland snowing on Sunday
Looking very good for snow now imo

jenzz

Weathercheck wrote: »

For me it looks like lots of Snow on Sunday and into Monday.

Then probably turning to sleet/rain near the east south coasts but remaining as snow inland.

Well WC you've been so right so far ...... im with you

bionic.laura

I saw diamond dust at about 12.00 today. It looked like someone had thrown a load of glitter in the air with the sun shining through it. I'd never seen it before. Beautiful stuff.

Am eagerly reading all the forecasts and data. Great work everyone!

linguist

Weathercheck wrote: »

For me it looks like lots of Snow on Sunday and into Monday.

Then probably turning to sleet/rain near the east south coasts but remaining as snow inland.

Do you think it will actually snow here on the coast (Donabate) or are we to be disappointed (again)?

Birdnuts

Su Campu wrote: »

I certainly think that we're going to get the coldest airmass of the winter so far over the weekend, certainly a 100% chance that any precipitation that does fall will fall as snow. The problem I see is I don't see there being much precipitation at all.

With the upper tropospheric high becoming established over the weekend, our only chance of snow will be sea-effect snow. The best chance of will be Friday, but thereafter the effects of the upper high become too much to allow for any deep convection. Any sea effect convection along the east and south will be highly surpressed by a strong inversion from 750-700hPa, which will limit cloudtops to 10,000ft at most. This will greatly limit the potential for any snowfalls of note on Saturday and Sunday, though for early Monday there is potential for brief snowfall with the arrival of the Atlantic breakdown.

So in summary I do see some further decent snow showers in eastern and southeastern counties tonight, tomorrow morning and up to tomorrow afternoon, possibly giving a few cms in places, but thereafter I think the most we can expect are some brief light flurries for the weekend

If this works out as you say all the models and forecastors from the Met O to Met Eireann are going to looks rather silly.

PS: I genuinly can't see it working out that way SU even if you go by GFS which has been very dodgy recently - ECM has been the form Horse and tonights output has no breakdown right out to 240hrs:)

snow ghost

WolfeIRE wrote: »

Just had a thought there (doesn't happen too often in this vacant ceann of mine)....If Met Eireann has advised the Department of the Environment thgat the cold spell is set to continue well into next week, is it not reasonable to suggest that they clearly do not think that the cold spell will lose out to warmer air this Sunday and Monday?

IMO Wolfe, could be wrong, given the current serious situation developing in the country due to the big freeze - lack of grit, transport problems, etc - Met Eireann would be under pressure to not make the wrong call that could result in extenuating the difficultues.

So it may be the case that they are inclined to err on the 'freeze continuing with no let up insight' side to ensure the government departments get their fingers out, rather than tell them it might warm up and be blamed for the consequences if it doesn't.

DOCARCH

Su, you've been a great and informative contributor here over the last while
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hat and coat by the door.....close it on your way out!
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Joking of course.

WolfeIRE

found this website. quite good 5-day temp forecast. Looks like we will have easterlies direct from russia for sunday and monday. Nice one to keep track over the next few days.

As Maq said, the stronger the easterly or SE wind blows the more widespread the snow event will be. The closer those isobars the windier it will be

http://scandinavia.meteox.com/forecast.aspx?type=drukverwachting

ninebeanrows

Was thinking that snow shower might of hit here but by the looks of it, it could head into the city.

Would be gas if the one shower to hit the east coast hit the city centre!

Our man in Havana

I went to my local Lidl today for some shopping. The place was being stripped bare by all the panic buying. No bread, milk or eggs to be had. It was like the fall of Hanoi.

hoody

Baltinglass -13.4C at 11pm, wonder how low will it get there towards mornin time?

linguist

Weathercheck wrote: »

Was thinking that snow shower might of hit here but by the looks of it, it could head into the city.

Would be gas if the one shower to hit the east coast hit the city centre!

Was thinking of Sunday/Monday. Are you saying snow on the coast, turning to sleet/rain later or sleet/rain on the coast from the outset?

200motels

Trotter wrote: »

Lads/Ladies before I hit the sack I'm gonna ask for a layman's summary here for the south east.

I'm looking at all of the sites and tv forecasts, and it seems Waterford city will get a decent dumping of snow on Sunday/Monday. Are we at that opinion at this point before I go asleep!?

I wouldn't bet on it.

maquiladora

Trotter wrote: »

Lads/Ladies before I hit the sack I'm gonna ask for a layman's summary here for the south east.

I'm looking at all of the sites and tv forecasts, and it seems Waterford city will get a decent dumping of snow on Sunday/Monday. Are we at that opinion at this point before I go asleep!?

At the moment, looks like a fairly good chance of snow in Waterford from Saturday evening, Sunday and early Monday with maybe a risk of it turning to sleet/rain then progressing.

mad DIY

ffarrell wrote: »

Dublin airport currently reporting -7, Casement -8. Galway + 2, Valentia (kerry) + 3.

-6.8 now in Terenure. Temps still dropping, in fact that seems to have been 1.5 degrees in the last hour, so the rate seems to be increasing after temps hung around -5.5 for a while.

Chicken Run

Star Bingo wrote: »

no doubt.. - hey why is it at this time the most important things'r deemed to be bread and milk? "d'ya have bread n milk, bread n milk. alright, away with ya soo.. -youre alright then"

erm.. no, i'm nearly out of Rizla Slim actually nan now willya trudge through the snow and get

sod bread & milk.... wine and tea-bags....and probably crisps.....

sdanseo

Weathercheck wrote: »

Was thinking that snow shower might of hit here but by the looks of it, it could head into the city.

Would be gas if the one shower to hit the east coast hit the city centre!

Tomorrow's a work day. Gas it ain't for commuters.

Great fun for the rest of us though. :pac:

Trogdor

Weathercheck wrote: »

Was thinking that snow shower might of hit here but by the looks of it, it could head into the city.

Would be gas if the one shower to hit the east coast hit the city centre!

Haha my thoughts exactly! Praying it'll head just a bit south of city centre and finally close my school too!:p

PistolPete78

Weathercheck wrote: »

For me it looks like lots of Snow on Sunday and into Monday.

Then probably turning to sleet/rain near the east south coasts but remaining as snow inland.

snow to come to limerick u think,,,??? which is nice!!:)

hoody

hoody wrote: »

Baltinglass -13.4C at 11pm, wonder how low will it get there towards mornin time?

It may be near enough it's lowest point now as here on the coast we already have a very light ENE breeze and some cloud off the sea.
I can feel it at the front of the house but can't at the back where the weather station is,so it's quite light as yet but the first incursion of irish sea air.

Not sure when the breeze will pick up over there as it's nestled between hills in the south west of the county.
But when it does,probably during the night,the temp should shoot up.
It is here already.

WolfeIRE

Think we have it bad?

Trotter

maquiladora wrote: »

At the moment, looks like a fairly good chance of snow in Waterford from Saturday evening, Sunday and early Monday with maybe a risk of it turning to sleet/rain then progressing.

:cool: I just want to watch it for a little while, walk in it for a little while, and get some photos.

1 day will do me! Hopes are up. Nite all.

sdanseo

Another huuggge TAF for Dublin

EIDW 072300Z 0800/0824 30005KT 0300 FZFG BKN001 PROB30 TEMPO 0800/0801 -SHGS -SHSN SCT018CB TEMPO 0800/0806 2000 BR SCT001 BECMG 0806/0809 05005KT 9999 NSW SCT020 PROB30 TEMPO 0809/0815 3000 -SHGS -SHSN BKN007 SCT018CB

Basically, a fairly precise, 100% probability forecast of sleet and graupel or hail from midnight to 1am, followed by a probability of more of the same from 9am-3pm. Lots of CB meaning cumulonimbus - or preip-generating - clouds, too.

Currently EIDW 072330Z 28004KT 0400 R16/1200V1500N R28/1500U R10/1000V1300U FZFG FEW001 SCT002 M07/M07 Q1020 NOSIG 10190095 16490399, basically secondary runway closed due to contamination and freezing fog, temp/DP both -7.

pistolpetes11

:eek: Had not looked at my temp for a while and by golly its gone low:

Temp -7

DP -8.4

NRA station Newbridge bypass

Air Temp -9.6

Road Temp -7.0

DOCARCH

If that shower hits Dublin, every flake will stick, given the temperatures (-6.7c here atm). The city will be in bits tomorrow as on the news, Dublin City Council said today was the last of the grit/salt they had!

quietobserver

its nowhere near as cold here as it has been for the past 3 weeks, my car hasnt even frozen over yet. Im in the Galway. ive no temp reading though

bryaner

Kippure wrote: »

After watching prime time tonight, i had to it turn off.

This country is run/not run by a bunch of retards.

Lets all look out for each other, the older people more.

If we get another light snow shower, the country will stop running.

Its the people that keep the country moving and not the retard politicians

Couldn't agree more,whatever about politicians,action plans bollox it's

weather and lets get on with it

Su Campu

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Have you had a look at the breakdown of this cold spell from Monday onwards ?

What types of temps mite one expect after this breakdown ?

So you think we should be expecting a massive downgrade from the MET tomorrow on this Sunday/Monday snowmagedn event ?

Sorry for all the questions

It's looking very likely from today's models that the Atlantic will win over from around Tuesday on, bringing temperatures back to normal January values (mid-high single figures - remember those??!!)

I do think though there could be one last gasp of snow during monday as ahead of this Atlantic air, so I'd expect them to mention that in the coming days.

Star Bingo

Chicken Run wrote: »

sod bread & milk.... wine and tea-bags....and probably crisps.....

green tea.. chocolate cheesecake from aldi...


- damn, that frozen fog is cutting some nice crystalized foliage out there.. makes the air sooo f'n cold though :rolleyes: