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Big Freeze Discussion (Friday 8/1/10)
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pistolpetes11 wrote: »Its not only themselves that they are endangering ,
What about the rescue services ? Or even a passer by that try's to help them.
-6.7 in Newbridge at the moment
DP -7.9
N7 Newbridge -7.8
I know i agree with you completely that's what i'm saying
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DP out on M2 bouy is -4.1
& I see the MET have us due snow in the morning
Weather Warning
Bitterly cold, icy conditions countrywide over the weekend with freezing fog lingering in places today and becoming widespread again tonight.
Some falls of hail and snow expected in eastern counties on Saturday, with a more prolonged spell of snow during the morning and accumulations of 2 to 5cm likely. The rest of the country will probably escape with just scattered snow showers.
Another spell of snow will affect mainly Leinster and Munster during Sunday and Monday with falls of 5 to 10 cm expected ( highest in eastern and southeastern counties). Strong easterly winds will lead to drifting.
Happy days - loads more ladyboy snowmen 0 -
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Good Evening Everyone,
The following is an analysis of the potential snowfall event, indicated as developing later on Sunday & into Monday.
Synopsis & Evolution
Confidence & Risk 65% - 70%
At present, a slack Easterly airflow covers Ireland. An Anticylone of 1035mb in intensity, continues to strengthen over Scandinavia.
Over the next 24 Hours, a slightly stronger Easterly flow will develop over Ireland. This will lead to a significant wind chill factor, with ''real-feel'' temperature values between -6 and -10. At present, an area of low pressure centred between Corsica & Northern Italy, of 995mb in intensity, is advecting a deep cold pool westwards. A complex frontal feature associated with this area of low pressure spreads Northwestwards towards the UK & Ireland over the coming 36 Hours.
T+48 12.00 - Sunday
A strong Easterly wind persists over Ireland, while a complex frontal feature begins to arrive from the Southeast. Associated snowfall, at first rather light in nature, should arrive in Southern & Southeastern areas, sometime shortly after 12 Hours on Sunday, between 12.00 & 17.00 Hours. During the course of Sunday, outbreaks of snow should develop more widely over Southern, Southeastern & Eastern areas. Pressure will fall to 1020mb overnight, particularly across the southern half the country, allowing for an intensification of the precipitation. At this point, it is largely expected that all precipitation will be snowfall, apart from some possible exceptions along extreme coastal fringes. 850mb temperatures at 12 Hours Sunday will range from -8 to -10.
T+60
Overnight, the frontal feature will straddle the southern half of the country, with strong Easterly winds persisting. While Dam Heights will gradually begin to increase above 528DAM, towards 529 & 530 - this shouldn't be a problem immediately because we will be dealing with a continental influence. It may, however, add to the marginality element in exposed coastal locations. At this point, outbreaks of snow, light to moderate in nature, should straddle many Eastern, Southeastern, Southern & Southwestern areas of the country.
Counties at risk at this timeframe include:
Kerry, Cork, Limerick, Tipperary, Waterford, Wexford, Wickow, Kilkenny, Carlow, Southern Laois, Kildare, Dublin, Meath & Louth.
T+72
At 12 Noon Monday, the boundary line of the complex frontal feature lies to the North of the country. An Easterly, backing Southeasterly airflow persists over Ireland. At this time, 850mb temperatures continue to support snowfall across the country, although marginality may become more prominent in exposed coastal areas. Equally, precipitation may continue to fall as snow in many areas, due to the level of embedded cold. Areas most at risk include large portions of the East, Southeast and South, with the risk diminishing in the Southwest. Blizzard conditions are possible over High ground in particular, and possibly to lower levels at times. Precipitation will generally fizzle out later on Monday into the East of the country. 850mb temperatures continue to support snowfall in Eastern areas in particular. A slight thaw is possible in the far Southwest later in the day.
Summary
There is a High Risk - 65% - 70% - of outbreaks of persistent light snowfall developing in the above areas later on Sunday & into Monday. While conditioins may become increasingly marginal in some areas on Monday, as discussed above, many areas should see snowfall during this period if the current NWP Guidance verifies. Total accumulations possible in this period range from 3CM to 8CM at lower levels, with in excess of 10CM possible at higher elevations. Disruption to Transportation is possible during this period. A gradual slight thaw may occur in the far Southwest & exposed areas much later on Monday, although 850mb temperatures remain largely supportive of snowfall, particularly further East, until Wednesday on the latest ECMWF Guidance.
SA
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