Big Freeze Discussion (Friday 8/1/10)

mothel

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

To be honest , you usually dont go far wrong looking at MT's daily forecast or MET Eireann's website


MT's Daily forecast :

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055579971&page=50

MET's Latest forecast

http://www.met.ie/latest/reports.asp

Yes I looked at MT's and he predicts it to be more likely rain too?!

Snowaddict

Latest GFS 18Z Operational Evolution suggesting snow showers moving Westwards and fizzling out later on under the influence of High Pressure & over land during tomorrow.

Also suggesting rather heavy snowfall arriving in the South, Southeast & East towards 13.00 on Sunday.

Certainly one to watch.

SA

thetonynator

dfbemt wrote: »

Dunno but there's 3 ex penguins on the Ryan Tubridy Show Late Late Show :rolleyes:

:D:D

WolfeIRE

Views of other ensembles on snow (all Monday lunchtime)

UKMO (potential for snowfall across the lower two thirds of the country at least. Likely to be lighter on extreme west coast)
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-7.GIF?08-18
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/run/UW72-594.GIF?08-18

JMA (Introduces rise in temps, though not significant, before a drop in temps again by next weekend)
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma/run/J72-594.GIF?08-12
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/jma/run/J72-7.GIF?08-12

ECMWF/CEP (marginal for snow on south coast on Monday. Temps rising throughout week.)
http://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf/run/ECM0-96.GIF?08-0

GEM (Introduces rise in temps, though not significant, before a drop in temps again by next weekend)
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-72.png

GFS (slight increase in uppers temps from Mon Am which may result in any snow turning to sleet or rain along the south west and later southern coast)
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/18_90_ukthickness850.png
http://theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/gfs/18_90_precipratec.png

Most models indicate that the Scandinavian blocking high gets pulled towards Siberia thus allowing milder air to push back the colder airmass. They all differ though regarding how much of this high's influence will be lost. All models indicate that milder air will get the upperhand initially but that it may be pushed back later in the week, or at least kept at bay.

Temps do look like rising by 2-3 degrees everywhere by later monday in the southwest and south, and then the southern half of the country by Tuesday and Wednesday. All of this is very uncertain at the moment but at least many in the southern third of the country, along with the east coast will see snow on Sunday night/Monday AM. Snow could very well push further west and north overnight sunday.
http://91.121.94.83/modeles/gem/run/gem-1-126.png


I reckon that the S, SE and E coast, along with the the southern half of Munster and southern half of Leinster will see snow on Sunday night. Precip will not be heavy but as the front is slow moving and the precip will be sustained there is a chance of quite significant accumulations. Met Eireann's figures would be a good average but higher amounts are likely on higher ground. The lower accum amounts will be in coastal areas.



The front will slowly push NW on Sunday night and will probably reach the southern tip of Ulster and over to North Mayo/Sligo. Confidence in this is low at the moment. Will need to wait until the morning ensembles to determine how this will pan out. I have a feeling that the front will lose much of its intensity by Monday afternoon before being reinforced by a system from the south west (therein lies the greatest threat of midler air shoving our colder airmass north eastwards). This is a classic set up for heavy snowfall. If the high to our north east can hold firm and the SE winds remain in place we would see significant snowfall across much of the country. This scenario could last into Thursday and Friday. It has happened before in this country (I think this was the scenario in 1982 although winds were more easterly rathern than southeasterly then).


Wolfe

thetonynator

DDigital wrote: »

Ah the balmy Co. Kerry seaside resort!

Coincidentally, I often spend my summer holidays just 5 miles from Valentia weather station, and when the rest of the country was wet, flooded, where I was was sunny most of the time, temperatures high teens

200motels

Villain wrote: »

Thanks flanzer, the station records all the data to a pc updating every 2 seconds and then the website updates every 45 seconds approx, its all automatic

I thought you were excellent this morning, you came across as a person who knows what they are talking about, well done.

baughd2

Does any1 know when the last time ireland experience such a long and hard freeze??

DDigital

thetonynator wrote: »

Coincidentally, I often spend my summer holidays just 5 miles from Valentia weather station, and when the rest of the country was wet, flooded, where I was was sunny most of the time, temperatures high teens

Thats why I honeymooned there! Crackin spot.

patneve

Dublin airport on the brink of beating its record (-10 I think), now currently -9!!!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

Ricky91t

1661 posts!:eek:

Supposedly getting snow here tomorrow...

leahyl

Min wrote: »

This morning at 7:55am Met Eireann gave heavy snow for Wednedsay and Thursday, the south and East again getting the brunt of it .

Yes BBC currently showing heavy snow for Cork for Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday:eek:!

pistolpetes11

mothel wrote: »

Yes I looked at MT's and he predicts it to be more likely rain too?!

Not really ,

There will be snow in places , may be rain in some places , may be a thaw early next week,

BUT

This could all change on the next run of the charts .

As excellent as MT's forecasts are, he can only forecast on the charts he has in front of him, Things have been changing day by day and this is how we will have to take this situation.

Elmer Blooker

baughd2 wrote: »

Does any1 know when the last time ireland experience such a long and hard freeze??

1963 is what everybody is saying but February 1986 saw a long cold spell but because little or no snow fell its long forgotten by now.

Dotsie~tmp

BBC24 forcast use the words "masses of snow for Ireland". Wasnt quite paying attention to it.

Mental Mickey

Dotsie~tmp wrote: »

BBC24 forcast use the words "masses of snow for Ireland". Wasnt quite paying attention to it.

Yikes!

paddydriver

patneve wrote: »

Dublin airport on the brink of beating its record (-10 I think), now currently -9!!!
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reurmett.html

Besides Scandinavia, Dublin airport looks like the coldest place in Europe... chilly.

piskins72

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

1963 is what everybody is saying but February 1986 saw a long cold spell but because little or no snow fell its long forgotten by now.

I remember 1986 as I had cousins over from Canada and they even thought it was cold!! :eek:

Snowaddict

Just to show how complex the evolution becomes later next week as described by MT Cranium in his forecast earlier, GFS is continuing to suggest an infamous ''Channel Low'' type event & is suggesting a marginal but heafty snowfall for many southern and central areas much later on Tuesday & into Wednesday.

Things could get very messy and severe into next week.

SA

DOCARCH

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

1963 is what everybody is saying but February 1986 saw a long cold spell but because little or no snow fell its long forgotten by now.

Indeed, that was the last time I remember the canals in Dublin fully frozen over. We only got light snow flurries.

-6.3c atm

M.T. Cranium

I haven't been saying much on this thread about Sunday-Monday because I have the feeling that the guidance available now will change in any case, so with the situation being so marginal (especially Monday) for snow, I thought it better to hold fire as much as possible. All I can say for sure is that it will be a messy mixture of rain, sleet and snow for several days, whether it organizes more by elevation or by region or both. You can probably figure the probabilities for your location from past experience, obviously it's more likely to rain along the coast and in the south than higher up or in the north.

But if it's just a snowstorm you want, there's always the chance that the guidance will shift in that direction before Sunday. Anything that happens tomorrow is likely to be isolated to the southeast and fairly close to the coast, but could be locally heavy, and should be mostly snow because the milder air due to start mixing in won't be that close yet.

I'm just off to have a look at the GFS 18z run and if that changes the balance maybe I'll update my forecast.

pistolpetes11

Snowaddict wrote: »

Just to show how complex the evolutin becomes later next week as described by MT Cranium in his forecast earlier, GFS is continuing to suggest an infamous ''Channel Low'' type event & is suggesting a marginal but heafty snowfall for many southern and central areas much later on Tuesday & into Wednesday.

Things could get very messy and severe into next week.

SA

This is Truly an amazing situation.

So many variables , changing so many times, day by day.

Many thanks to you/Wolfe and all the other weather crew for the great breakdowns/reports of the upcoming event/non event

Chicken Run

-9C according to the sensor nailed to the sheds, and clear skies in Clare

Leeside

I see that Carlow has hit -15.0. That record is sure to be broken.

mothel

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Not really ,

There will be snow in places , may be rain in some places , may be a thaw early next week,

BUT

This could all change on the next run of the charts .

As excellent as MT's forecasts are, he can only forecast on the charts he has in front of him, Things have been changing day by day and this is how we will have to take this situation.

So nothing is as certain as met eireann are predicting? which is where I came in... What are the odds, 50/50?

jd

DOCARCH wrote: »

Indeed, that was the last time I remember the canals in Dublin fully frozen over. We only got light snow flurries.

1986,I remember that. I tried to cycle from Rathgar Rd to UCD and came off my bike. Hit my head but went to the bar anyway.

Leeside

BBC is showing sleet for Cork on Monday at +3 and heavy snow on Tuesday at +5 degrees.
Doesn't make sense.

DOCARCH

mothel wrote: »

So nothing is as certain as met eireann are predicting? which is where I came in... What are the odds, 50/50?

No, that's why some (incl. myself) are so surprised that ME are so sure! They like fences and sitting thereon! In fairness, usuallly, forecasting snow for this climate is a nightmare.

leahyl

Leeside wrote: »

BBC is showing sleet for Cork on Monday at +3 and heavy snow on Tuesday at +5 degrees.
Doesn't make sense.

Ya i know their temperatures always seem to be way off even on their televised forecasts!

TomTom

I was kinda looking forward to a weekend of snow but now I'm finding it hard to get the hours kept warm and with small baby I would rather this cold snap pissed off. Jesus I am getting old.

je55ie

Leeside wrote: »

I see that Carlow has hit -15.0. That record is sure to be broken.

hi can you tell me is there an website that gives current temperatures of area or is it equipment you have?