Met Eireann said we have at least 10 more days of this....

cinnamon

... and now there's talk of a thaw and temps getting up to normal, and reports of rain around the country.

So is that the end of The Big Freeze, weather people?

Tommo119

I don't see temperatures back to ''normal'', i think the feeling is they may not be as cold as they have been meaning they may get above freezing for the first time in days. Wednesday looks cold to me, temperatures around freezing around the whole of the British Isles. It's not over yet.

allthedoyles

But dosen't it look like it ain't going to be as bad as predicted yesterday ?

Tommo119

allthedoyles wrote: »

But dosen't it look like it ain't going to be as bad as predicted yesterday ?

Most forecast predict it staying 'cold' for another Week, meaning the chance of snow is always there

maquiladora

Depends where you are, will probably still be cold enough for snow in the north midlands and north for another 2 or 3 days.

M.T. Cranium

The "good old days" were famous for forecast errors with regards to cold spells breaking down. We shall see if the 2010 version of the models can do any better, because it's the models saying milder weather with rain is moving in, forecasters like myself are just the messengers. Even presented with a fairly definite looking change to milder weather on Tuesday, we have to keep in mind that the colder air source (a high over Scandinavia) is going nowhere and will continue to keep some parts of Scotland very cold even while this Tuesday low pressure system (according to model predictions) moves past Ireland and drags in some milder air from the south. There is considerable discussion on the UK forecast scene about how far into the UK this Tuesday warming will extend, and whether it will result in a snowfall east of some stalled front in places like Wales, the West Midlands, and south central England for example (my thinking is that it could, while south Wales and Cornwall-Devon get into the same mild air as Ireland).

Also, it won't last too long before colder air tries to seep back in, a second low from the south is being shown as held back over France, then another surge of milder air gets in on Friday night or Saturday, but that's into the range where we never trust the models too much (five-six days), whereas the Tuesday warming trend would be a major model "bust" if it failed to occur. I would say check the forecasts first thing Monday to see if the overnight runs have changed the call.

djhaxman

maquiladora wrote: »

Depends where you are, will probably still be cold enough for snow in the north midlands and north for another 2 or 3 days.

I've been in Monaghan since Christmas and it hasn't snowed here in days. :mad:

nacho libre

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

The "good old days" were famous for forecast errors with regards to cold spells breaking down. We shall see if the 2010 version of the models can do any better, because it's the models saying milder weather with rain is moving in, forecasters like myself are just the messengers. Even presented with a fairly definite looking change to milder weather on Tuesday, we have to keep in mind that the colder air source (a high over Scandinavia) is going nowhere and will continue to keep some parts of Scotland very cold even while this Tuesday low pressure system (according to model predictions) moves past Ireland and drags in some milder air from the south. There is considerable discussion on the UK forecast scene about how far into the UK this Tuesday warming will extend, and whether it will result in a snowfall east of some stalled front in places like Wales, the West Midlands, and south central England for example (my thinking is that it could, while south Wales and Cornwall-Devon get into the same mild air as Ireland).

Also, it won't last too long before colder air tries to seep back in, a second low from the south is being shown as held back over France, then another surge of milder air gets in on Friday night or Saturday, but that's into the range where we never trust the models too much (five-six days), whereas the Tuesday warming trend would be a major model "bust" if it failed to occur. I would say check the forecasts first thing Monday to see if the overnight runs have changed the call.

i doubt they will do at this late stage. So Tuesday increasingly looks like it's going to be another what might have been - that's been the recurring theme of this cold spell - everytime the atlantic has squared up to the cold over ireland it has won decisively. i am fully aware this will only be of regret to snow lovers like myself and others because we know that in classic winters the atlantic in a somewhat similar weather pattern(most notably '47 and '63) was continually given a bloody nose by the colder airmass, which resulted in periods of widespread heavy snowfall throughout ireland. so the greatest regret i have now with the cold seemingly ending is, the relisation that the verification of the charts we've seen over the last few weeks may not happen again for many, many years to come. it's maddening to think(well, at least to me it is:o) we came close a couple of times to getting an epic snowfall- by epic i mean a widespread snowfall that could have resulted in 6- 10 inches at lower levels across the country.
instead what we've mostly seen is rather localised heavy snowfall with generally moderate accumulations at lower levels.
of course the board members from the snow- deprived south who got hours of snow today won't care!

additionally, i appreciate there are many newcomers... who will be glad for the cold to end and are bemused by posts bemoaning its likely end:)

Min

nacho libre wrote: »

i doubt they will do at this late stage. So Tuesday increasingly looks like it's going to be another what might have been - that's been the recurring theme of this cold spell - everytime the atlantic has squared up to the cold over ireland it has won decisively. i am fully aware this will only be of regret to snow lovers like myself and others because we know that in classic winters the atlantic in a somewhat similar weather pattern(most notably '47 and '63) was continually given a bloody nose by the colder airmass, which resulted in periods of widespread heavy snowfall throughout ireland. so the greatest regret i have now with the cold seemingly ending is, the relisation that the verification of the charts we've seen over the last few weeks may not happen again for many, many years to come. it's maddening to think(well, at least to me it is:o) we came close a couple of times to getting an epic snowfall- by epic i mean a widespread snowfall that could have resulted in 6- 10 inches at lower levels across the country.
instead what we've mostly seen is rather localised heavy snowfall with generally moderate accumulations at lower levels.
of course the board members from the snow- deprived south who got hours of snow today won't care!

additionally, i appreciate there are many newcomers... who will be glad for the cold to end and are bemused by posts bemoaning its likely end:)

Some climate scientists believe we are in a period of global cooling which could last for upto 30 years.
Winters like this might not be so uncommon.

cinnamon

nacho libre wrote: »

be of regret to snow lovers like myself

Nacho libre - did you get to see any of the white stuff?

I am a big mad snow fan and I don't want this to end yet. I had a good spell though, I was out the country for Christmas and we got proper decent snow, enough to make a massive snowman and in my home town there last week we had lovely falls of snow (to various degrees) everyday for about 5 days.

AND the river froze over which was a magical site. Just walking along the frozen tree canopied river with snow flurries was a wonderful thing. I felt like I was retracing the steps my granny took in 1947. I was so aware of it being a historical day, that TBH I was quite overwhelmed. God I sound like a crazy person, but snow for me, seems to encapsulate the magic of childhood and when it ends it's like, bleh, back to the bloody adult world again with all its problems

I have been waiting my entire life for this kind of snow and I'm happy I got it. I hope you got some too.

nacho libre

cinnamon wrote: »

Nacho libre - did you get to see any of the white stuff?

I am a big mad snow fan and I don't want this to end yet. I had a good spell though, I was out the country for Christmas and we got proper decent snow, enough to make a massive snowman and in my home town there last week we had lovely falls of snow (to various degrees) everyday for about 5 days.

AND the river froze over which was a magical site. Just walking along the frozen tree canopied river with snow flurries was a wonderful thing. I felt like I was retracing the steps my granny took in 1947. I was so aware of it being a historical day, that TBH I was quite overwhelmed. God I sound like a crazy person, but snow for me, seems to encapsulate the magic of childhood and when it ends it's like, bleh, back to the bloody adult world again with all its problems

I have been waiting my entire life for this kind of snow and I'm happy I got it. I hope you got some too.

yes i got some too, thanks. although, i feel you can never have enough of the "precious":)

i had simliar feeling to the ones you've eloquently described above. taking long walks as the real cold was coming to an end was just brilliant.
it's rare to see frost cling to trees all day and lieing snow not melting in this country. i guess the rarity of it is what made it so special.

M.T. Cranium

There probably will be ten more days of it, five later in January, three in February, one in March, and one in June.

Joe Public

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

There probably will be ten more days of it, five later in January, three in February, one in March, and one in June.

Extra bonus points for the dates and locations:)

M.T. Cranium

Knock for the first nine, wherever I am holidaying for the tenth one.

Elmer Blooker

cinnamon wrote: »

... and now there's talk of a thaw and temps getting up to normal, and reports of rain around the country.

So is that the end of The Big Freeze, weather people?

It certainly looks like its THE END
I think even the biggest snow rampers will have to admit that the Atlantic is now unstoppable!
There's talk about a massive anticyclone over NW Russia extending westwards and bringing a return to colder easterlies but I think this is just a case of wishful thinking. As far as I'm concerned this high over Russia is more or less a permanent feature at this time of year. I've seen it so many times- a high appears to be building westwards towards Scandinavia but soon retreats back into the landmass. What a let down this winter turned out to be- waking up to nothing but slush on Sunday morning after Saturday night's brilliant snowfall was hard to take. I'm sick of this poxy climate!

Elmer Blooker

Elmer Blooker wrote: »

It certainly looks like its THE END
I think even the biggest snow rampers will have to admit that the Atlantic is now unstoppable!
There's talk about a massive anticyclone over NW Russia extending westwards and bringing a return to colder easterlies but I think this is just a case of wishful thinking. As far as I'm concerned this high over Russia is more or less a permanent feature at this time of year. I've seen it so many times- a high appears to be building westwards towards Scandinavia but soon retreats back into the landmass. What a let down this winter turned out to be- waking up to nothing but slush on Sunday morning after Saturday night's brilliant snowfall was hard to take. I'm sick of this poxy climate!

There ya have it! I've seen it all before, I've been around longer than internet, GFS watching and what have ya. And you can be sure of one thing - next week we'll be green with envy when SE England gets a good dumping while we can only look on in (yet more) frustration!
But I do think that winter will return at some stage, maybe the end of the month. I'm old enough to remember 1978-79 and that winter had Atlantic interruptions and so did 1947 which I'm not old enough to remember!
Mid Feb will see real winter weather- watch out!