PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

He ran a good race, some early scrimmaging could of took a little bit out of him.

He wouldn't stay further.

thesandeman

Still not bad. Glad he drifted. I could only get 8s this morning.

JONJO THE MISER

Just done Poets Place, he wont let us down Pyro:cool:

JONJO THE MISER

No where.

x PyRo

Never picked up.

-6pts today.

Bank - 383.76pts (+283.76pts)

I don't think I'll have any selections for a while.

TheMilkyPirate

Second time poets place has let me down, Firmly in the black books now no excuses there.

JONJO THE MISER

Dont give up Pyro these things are bound to happen you just got to ride it out and dont go on tilt, i have no doubt whatsoever that you will reach over 500pts profit by xmas, so look at it that way.

argosy2006

i remember this time last year , none of the top tipsters could tip a thing,
Hugh taylor took month off if i recall, or was it segal,
the transition from flat to NH was to be avoided, although today was all flat for u, so i dunno,

x PyRo

I can't catch things right at the end of the season, the ground is horrible to call and form is worthless. I'll just continue losing money if I don't take a break, my winnings from Workforce on Sunday are gone now. No point eating into the rest of the bank.

I was going to back Lochan Mor in the 2:35 tomorrow but not going to bother now, he'll end up winning without my money on.

I need a break anyway, my head is fried. I'll have a few next weekend I reckon, possibly not either, just depends if I feel lucky again!

JONJO THE MISER

Very Professional Pyro, a break can be the best thing in the world, you will come back refreshed and with a new lease of life.

OutlawPete

x PyRo wrote: »

I can't catch things right at the end of the season, the ground is horrible to call and form is worthless.

Nail on head Pyro.

I'm still nursing wounds from my loses from when the rain came mid August.

I would say that if you went back through your wins and loses, you would see a distinct trend towards making better profits when the ground is Good / Good to Firm than when it is Good to Soft / Soft.

Learned an expensive lesson this year and as long as I live, I will never have a serious bet in any race with ground softer than Good.

x PyRo

Cheers JJ, once the form's out the window I can't call it, it'll be the same for the first month of the NH racing. That'll be a tough month. The last 2 Saturdays have been big losing days and yesterday was too, it's better to come back feeling positive than to spend another week losing more and more because that's what'll happen with how things are going.

Pete, that's it, at least in August they're not completely run off their feet in terms of runs for the season and the form can stack up. The majority of my selections in the past week have completely let down the form and ran like I do! I'll spend this week trying a few things and probably come back next Saturday for the good races, avoid all horses with solid form and pick ones who have underachieved this season. That seems to be the way things worked out today. Disaster.

To make it worse I had selected Dubawi Gold (previous selection too) as one of my bets today, I decided I had staked enough so avoided putting it on, he trounced a field of 5 in the first at Ascot after going off at 25/1. 33's were available when I was going to back him. You know your luck's out when shit like that happens!

Speak to you soon guys, I've alcohol to attend to! :pac:

Sorry

about those ones today and yesterday, shocking stuff.

People don't like me apologizing so I spoilered it.

:pac:

mickey1979

cheers pyro have followed you up and down funny enough followed you today but missed yesterday I would think you are been caught by the ups downs of punting you had a serious run since July and balancing out is hitting you where no matter what you do its wrong. The Laws of punting its time to go holiday to Barbados and lick your wounds and prepare for winter war. On another note shocking stuff in Celtic Bookmakers today I would be a losing punter in there and they knocked me back for a few bets. Ivan must be struggling

The Recliner

A break can never do someone harm

Keep the head up

thesandeman

Lol at the spoiler. No worries. My a/c balance is four times what it was a couple of months ago mainly because of you and Aidankkk so no complaints here.

Super-Rush

Its not all doom and gloom XP. I got €8 back from Sirvino. Went ew for the first time ever :pac:

Tough break over the last few days man, but we owe you nothing.

x PyRo

Cheers lads, hopefully a little break will do me no harm, I'll probably get bored and start selecting bets again in a couple of days but every other break I've taken has done me good, even if it's just for a couple of days. Hopefully the same happens again. Haven't got any luck of late and even when they've been well backed they've ran crap. Autumn Riches 20's into 12's. Poet's Place, 7's into 9/2 and then all the ones yesterday that were halved in price. Getting the market spot on, just not the horses. I'm going to start laying as I do get the market right a lot which will work even better with lays, hopefully.

argosy2006

thenutflush

super-rush wrote: »

Tough break over the last few days man, but we owe you nothing.

I'll second this Pyro. I only bet very small stakes (by the standards of most lads in here id say!) as I've only recently got into the horses but I'm up over 150 just from your selections in the last few weeks. A welcome wee bit of money for a poor student :pac:

You've just caught yourself in a bit of down-swing after a vicious good run and you're right to sit it out. Same as in poker after a downswing..ya need to just get out of the game for a bit till your judgemental is crystal clear again.

Enjoy get pissed tonight anyways!

x PyRo

Fuck it, winners never quit, quitters never win. I'll just ride it out and hopefully it'll change soon, soon being today. :pac:

2:35 Goodwood - Avertor - 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Unexposed 4 year old who has only had 7 career runs to date, he has only won once when winning a maiden on his second start, he went in to handicaps off a mark of 83 and flattered to deceive when coming plum last on his first 2 handicap runs. He got to grips with business when coming 3rd of 15 over 5f at Haydock after being dropped 3lbs. That was an impressive run over a trip that he may not be quick enough for and he was upped to 6f next time out on very testing ground, similar to today. He came 2nd of 17, 2 lengths behind R Woody, who he re-opposes here with a 7lb swing in his favour. That pair were well clear of the rest in a hot handicap. He was then dropped back to 5 furlongs for a class 3 event at Haydock, he ran reasonably well on quick-ish ground and finished 5th of 12. Cheveton ran in that race and came 2nd, just 1 length ahead of my selection. He has franked the form of that race to no end but he could of won it quite easily if he had a clear passage so the 1 length gap between he and my selection would and should of been significantly more. Now that Avertor is stepped up to 6f again and racing on slow ground I think he has a big chance of showing his true abilities here, he has only raced 4 times this season and should still be fresh in comparison to a lot of these who have had long tough seasons. He's drawn in stall 4 which isn't ideal but with plenty of pace not far from him I think he should get a reasonable sit in behind the leaders and hopefully run on inside the final furlong to lead, he did make all in his maiden win but I doubt similar tactics could be applied from stall 4 and with a couple of other front runners in the field.

Avertor is trained by the wonderful Robert Charlton who has witnessed his stable come right into form in recent times and he has a 22% strike rate in the past month after having numerous winners. He usually does very well when sending horses to Goodwood and he has a good 17% strike rate here and 5 out of 13 sent here this year have ended up in the winners enclosure. Steve Drowne takes the ride on Avertor as he has done on all bar 1 of his career starts, he should know exactly what to do with this fellow. Drowne is riding well of late and has a 21% strike rate on course when riding horses over 4 years old for Charlton, I also think he's a very good jockey over the shorter distances and in what looks likely to be a tactical affair he could well be a massive benefit to this horse on such a tricky track like Goodwood. I'm also interested that Robert Charlton now reaches for the Blinkers on this gelding, he has pulled strongly and hung on a number of occasions and if the blinkers have the desired effect it may just bring out some more ability in this horse. He certainly has conditions to suit today and has been nibbled at over night having moved from 8's into his current price of 7/1. He's 9/2 second favourite in my book and at 7's with 1/4 the odds paid he's worth a decent each way stake. He certainly has the ability to do well here and will eventually prove to be a better horse than his mark of 82, I hope that's today but knowing my luck it won't be. I'll take a chance anyways and he's my only selection for the day.

blindpilot

Keep the faith chap. You've been excellent recently. We all hit bad runs. There's nothin like a winner to forget about it though. Hopefully that comes tomorrow.

Kod-box

Thats the spirit man lol

x PyRo

Cheers BP, it's not just the losing run and losing my own money that gets to me, it's losing anyone else that follows as I post on numerous forums and websites etc. I think I've made too many mistakes in sticking with horses I've backed on numerous occasions that I thought would win and they haven't. I decided not to go on a session (:pac:) and analyze my own strategies, I haven't changed how I select them, I've just changed who I stay loyal to and tried to get rid of horses from my notebook that are deadwood and should be avoided. I've a habit of keeping patience with too many horses for too long, and it costs money.

That's only relevant at the end of the season though, as a lot of them are from early on and have had long hard seasons and just can't win, Poet's Place for example. I think all the tough races have caught up with him as we haven't seen the horses true abilities on his last run. I will however keep backing horses from the beginning of a season until late September (next year) and start backing fresher horses once the ground gets really testing throughout October and November. That seems to be the current trend and happens year in year out but I haven't the previous experience to know that and I've learnt now after losing a serious wedge of cash, all my Workforce money infact. Anyways I live to learn and won't make this mistake next year, or for the first month of the new NH season.

In short, thanks.

Cheers Kod, I think it's a change of strategy needed not a break. Hopefully, or I'll look like a bigger idiot!

CHAAAAAARGE! :pac:

DOC09UNAM

Worry about your own money man, your not forcing anyone to Bet, You put up suggestions, we'll mostly have a Read and see whether it's worth the flutter, don't worry about It, we all have the faith in you to return to form!

thesandeman

''AND ON THE SECOND HOUR HE AROSE AGAIN AND APPEARED TO MANY'' Welcome back Xp ;-)

x PyRo

I know what you mean dude and thanks. Even if I won someone a million and they lost a grand on the next one I'd feel bad. Especially when it's people who actually interact in the thread all the time, I wouldn't of got this far (improvement wise) if it wasn't for people reading my posts and commenting etc. I know it's my log and my bets but I do want people to read and I do want people to make a few quid off it too so it's not nice to lose my own bollocks for 2 days in the row and the bolli (lmao? :pac:) of many others that would follow them all.

If I ever do get a job for the RP (pipe dream!) they'll be pissed off with all the "And Pyro apologies for this losing tip". :pac:

The luck will change, sometime soon. Hopefully. The stats since July still make nice reading, +200pts and a 45% ROI, despite this crap run.

Sandman, class. Hopefully the planned break has tricked my subconscious into picking a winner. :pac:

DOC09UNAM

If it makes you feel better, I have backed horses because I liked the name.

I know, it's stupid, but when they come through it's a mixture of happiness and lols.

x PyRo

It's as good a strategy as any at times, I've a mate who does it all the time and does quite well. Hasn't a clue about horses but backs the funniest or coolest name in the race!

DOC09UNAM

Oh i'd only do it when I have money to play with, nothing too major, it's funny if they do win, and someone asks you why you picked them, makes you look like a tit tbh.

x PyRo

Ah right, I'd never do it but more than you think actually do! It's crazy but whatever floats their boat.

I can't back anything without spending a couple of hours on the race studying all horses in depth. Takes a long time, hence why it's so annoying when they run like they're 3 legged.