PyRo's Horse Bets.

thesandeman

If you stick with this thread its your gambling incomings you have to think about Budgemook ;-)

x PyRo

Goodwood Starlight was poor over the jumps. Well backed too so I'd say they expected a bit better, definitely worth following him for future engagements.

I managed to get on a massive gamble, pity he only came 2nd.

+1pt today.

Massive. :pac:

Bank - 386.16pts (+286.16pts)

Pontefract tomorrow. Overpriced horses with a lot of stamina will be the order of the day.

scopper

Is Divertimenti going to figure into your bets tomorrow by any chance? Just taking a gander after some time off...one of my favs though so might throw some money on it.

D1976

Back on form Pyro good stuff

ft9

Pyro what would you advise regarding a staking plan? Its something ive never thought about and would like to get one in action to follow your selection.

Should 1pt be 1% of balance or what is generally the crack with it?

L'prof

ft9 wrote: »

Pyro what would you advise regarding a staking plan? Its something ive never thought about and would like to get one in action to follow your selection.

Should 1pt be 1% of balance or what is generally the crack with it?

Yep:

x PyRo wrote: »

That's a head scratcher alright!

Possibly 1% of your bank per point but whatever you're comfortable with. I'd regularly be staking a good percentage of my bank on weekends but a bad run could wipe you out handily. If it's for the horses I'd probably go slowly and increase it as the bank increases. It's a tough question though.

thesandeman

Strange things happening here. Xps reply to fts question didnt come up but the post which quoted it after did :-S Getting alerts for things that arent there as well. Back to help desk in the morning me thinks :-)

x PyRo

ft9 wrote: »

Pyro what would you advise regarding a staking plan? Its something ive never thought about and would like to get one in action to follow your selection.

Should 1pt be 1% of balance or what is generally the crack with it?

1% would be what I'd advise, considering there's 10pts staked on the better days racing I wouldn't go much higher than that dude, no point taking the chance.

thesandeman wrote: »

Strange things happening here. Xps reply to fts question didnt come up but the post which quoted it after did :-S Getting alerts for things that arent there as well. Back to help desk in the morning me thinks :-)

L'prof quoted a post I made a while ago in response to someone else, I didn't reply to ft. Don't worry, there's nothing wrong with your alerts. :pac:

x PyRo

2:40 Pontefract - Amistress - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Progressive 2 year old who was a convincing winner last time out, gone up 10lbs for that success but it may not be beyond her. She's bred to be a decent juvenile and once she got the hang of things she has turned out to be a good animal. This is much tougher than any of her previous races but she has many a thing on her side. With Pontefract being a very stamina testing track she will have conditions to savour here, she ran over this C&D on her penultimate start, finishing 2nd to a decent looking Johnston horse. She is bred to handle further than this 1mile trip and with stamina being in abundance she may prove to be a lot better than a mark of 55 in a nursery like this, not only is she bred to have a lot of stamina but she also finishes off her races very well, suggesting to me that there could be a lot more to come from her. She gets in here off a very lightweight of 8st 1lb and has the master of lightweights, Silvester De Sousa, on board. He also rode her on her only start here and gave her a fine ride when 10lbs out of the handicap. Amistress ran very well in an 11 runner handicap last time out, winning by 3 lengths after tracking the leaders to stay on strongly towards the finish. Those were very positive tactics that day and with a more reserved running style here I think she will be staying on best of the rest as it's likely that we'll see a reasonably quick gallop which will suit, she is also one of only a couple to have experienced this tough track. The ground is ideal and the draw in stall 12 may not have too much of an effect on her chances as it may force her to be held up, which I want to see.

Amistress is trained by the wonderful Eve Johnson-Houghton, she rarely visits this track and when she does, her runners are always of interest to me. She comes here with two charges and I reckon both have solid chances. The last time she came here it was with these two, Amistress and Yurituni. The former coming 2nd and the latter coming 1st. In all her time training Eve has only had 12 runners here with 4 wins (33%), 2 2nds and 3 3rd places. When De Sousa rides for her he has a 23% strike rate, they haven't teamed up too often but the stats are mightily impressive and he's always a big positive to any horse, even more so when doing such a light weight. Amistress is likely to be around the 12/1 mark and that's too big in my opinion, she has got her head in front now and should really plow on from there, even with a 10lb penalty. She has everything going for her here, it is a tough race but I believe her forecast price is massive and I was expecting something closer to the 5/1 mark. She's worth small each way stakes, tougher race to contend with but she has the ability to go close.

x PyRo

3:40 Pontefract - Yurituni - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Talented 3 year old filly on her day who could still prove to be on a handy mark having seen blinkers improve her when winning over C&D 3 weeks ago. She just went up 2lbs for that success after making all to score by 1/2 a length in a weaker race than this, she got a big lonely in front and ran about a bit, she could of scored by further if not for that, suggesting there may be more to come. She ran at Bath next time out, upped to 6f, on soft ground and was sent off the 9/2 favourite. She got no cover at all and had to race very wide which cost her any chance, she was eased when beaten and finished last. She now drops back to 5f which is a big plus, she clearly relishes a tough stamina test and she is bred to have plenty, as shown when she won here under Kieren Fallon. He gets the leg up again and that's a massive plus in my opinion, he gave her a wonderful ride that day and has a fantastic record when riding at Pontefract, he has a 22% strike rate here and has won aboard 4 of his last 5 rides here. He also shows a big level stakes profit of +£75 to £1 stakes.

Yurituni has been competitive off a mark of 7lbs higher and although it'll take a career best effort to win this she certainly has enough in the locker to do well. I can't see similar tactics being used here as there is many front runners in the race but she has been suited by fast gallops before and with her stamina likely to prove very capable once again I see her as the one who should be staying on best of the rest. She may be hot and cold at times but I believe last weeks performance was due to being ridden so wide and not being covered up, she will get plenty of chances to cover up here and she clearly enjoyed the testing track on her only start here. There is more to come from this filly and although this is a tough assignment I do believe she has it in her to win, she has place claims at a minimum if coping with the short gap between races. 10/1 is too big and with everything likely to suit I had her as the 11/2 second favourite, she's worth small each way stakes in the hope that she can reproduce her impressive win on her penultimate start.

Crowie13

Good to see u back on form Pyro, didn't see ur picks over the weekend but had one of ur previous picks yesterday Lochan Mor. Couldn't beleive he was caught on the line

thesandeman

16/1 and 12/1 with Boyles at the moment.

Moffo

Amistress in a photo for 3rd

didnt get 3rd

Unlucky there Pyro, she had a good run

YohanCabeye7

4th nooooooooooooooo

thesandeman

The non runners cost us a few bob there :-(

PEACEBROTHER

scopper wrote: »

Is Divertimenti going to figure into your bets tomorrow by any chance? Just taking a gander after some time off...one of my favs though so might throw some money on it.

Nice one !!!!;)

Won @ 12 to 1

scopper

PEACEBROTHER wrote: »

Nice one !!!!;)

Won @ 12 to 1

No probs. Great horse. Always one to watch.

x PyRo

Good stuff dude, clearly a horse in great form.

Mine weren't good, Amistress ran well, unlucky not to place, just got tired. Yurituni ran poorly, possibly a race too tough for her abilities.

I'm not sure if I'll have any selections for Tuesday, I think the day off would do no harm.

Bank - 381.16pts (+281.16pts)

scopper

x PyRo wrote: »

Good stuff dude, clearly a horse in great form.

Mine weren't good, Amistress ran well, unlucky not to place, just got tired. Yurituni ran poorly, possibly a race too tough for her abilities.

I'm not sure if I'll have any selections for Tuesday, I think the day off would do no harm.

Bank - 381.16pts (+281.16pts)

Shame about Amistress. Going in my Nagme file

dennymin

x PyRo wrote: »

Good stuff dude, clearly a horse in great form.

Mine weren't good, Amistress ran well, unlucky not to place, just got tired. Yurituni ran poorly, possibly a race too tough for her abilities.

I'm not sure if I'll have any selections for Tuesday, I think the day off would do no harm.

Bank - 381.16pts (+281.16pts)

you always get back on form after a well deserved break!! i think its probably overdue at this stage!! nothing but donkey classes at lingfield and yarmouth, exter has a few decent jump classes! but flats are more your biz if i'm correct!!

x PyRo

3:40 Ffos Las - Munsarim - 2pts e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Well bred 3 year old who has some decent form lines through his maiden races, he has flopped on 3 occasions since winning a maiden by 11 lengths over 1 mile. I would put those poor runs down to the 10-12f trips he was running off, this horse is an out and out miler in my opinion and now dropping back to 1m could and should see him in a better light. He was initially given a mark of 87 after winning the maiden, he was hampered and had a poor jockey on board, he looked the likely winner 2 out but got tired and failed to see out the 10f trip. He was then somehow stepped up to 12f, ran on soft ground and never looked a danger, beaten by 16 lengths and showed very little. Then he ran well for a long way last time out, over 10f again, looked to be traveling well but didn't see out the trip after half rearing in the stall at the start. He has been dropped a couple of pounds after all of those races and now gets to run off a mark of 80, that should prove a mark well within his capabilities. He also has the wonderful 3lb claimer, Martin Lane, on board for the first time. That should be a big plus to a horse who had to put up with the 'services' of Richard Hills, Tadhg O'Shea, Jamie Spencer and Ted Durcan, all jockeys who on their day could ruin the chances of the worlds best horses.

Munsarim strikes me as one who needs quick ground, he should get that today with the ground currently Good to Firm and unlikely to change. The draw in stall 9 isn't perfect but it shouldn't cause too many problems at this course. This flat galloping track should suit him perfectly and with the combination of ideal ground and his optimum trip, I think he'll put up a brave showing, he is tactically versatile and can be ridden to make all or held up, he may be forced to do the latter due to his draw but there's only one out and out competitor for the lead and I'm hoping Munsarim may get to the front early on. He has a wonderful turn of foot and when allowed to dictate with conditions suiting he'll prove to be a decent animal, the way he accelerated 3f out when winning his maiden was impressive and he won by a very eased down 11 lengths in the end, suggesting there could well be a lot more to come from this fellow. On debut he was a 7l 3rd behind Al Zir who has since went on to be a very decent animal. He was 2l behind Coordinated Cut next time out, that one was last seen in the Irish Derby and then he was 2l behind the Hannon youngster, Invincible Soul, who has since placed in a number of big races and is rated 94 by the Handicapper. They were impressive runs and all over more suitable distances, he has a lot more to give and hopefully it starts here. Everything's going for him and his 11/1 price tag is far too big for a horse of his abilities, he's unexposed and open to improvement. I had him down as a 5/1 shot and he warrants decent each way stakes and is certainly one to keep an eye on in future engagements. Martin Lane doesn't ride for Dunlop often and he has a 22% strike rate when doing so, this is the only horse Dunlop sends out today to a course that he has never had a horse out of the top 3. (1 1st, 2 2nds, 2 3rds) Lane also has a 22% strike rate when riding here and a 50% place rate, he's a plus to any horse and should be an ideal partner for this fellow. I expect a big run and wouldn't be surprised to see this price shorten significantly.

L'prof

I was trying a new system of lays yesterday, which I'm going to keep on doing...provided what happened yesterday doesn't happen again. I selected a horse to avoid in 9 races (probably too many, I know) and layed the best priced horse after him. I made a very small profit, however if I had backed the horses I avoided at 1 point wins, I would have made an ROI of +53.3%! God I hate this gambling lark! Good to see you making a selection again, keep up the good work man.

thesandeman

8/1 pretty much everywhere. Money back if 2nd to Fav with Boyles.

Drakar

Lots of 10s http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ffos-las/15:40/winner

JONJO THE MISER

Morning fellas, are we ready to win some mula today:p

x PyRo

Very disappointing. Keep an eye on that one in the future, he's not as bad as he seems.

Bank - 377.16pts (+277.16pts)

One of my close relations is really sick at the moment, will be lucky to see tomorrow so I don't know how much time I'll get online from tomorrow onwards.

Quazzie

Sorry to hear that about your relation Pyro. I hope they find peace whichever way it goes.

x PyRo

Quazzie wrote: »

Sorry to hear that about your relation Pyro. I hope they find peace whichever way it goes.

Cheers Quazzie, she's asleep at the moment but completely drained. Cancer is terrible. Thanks for the message, means a lot.

Quazzie

As my father once said about Cancer "It doesn't care who it takes it'll just keep going. Its just harder to take for us when it takes a good one".

D1976

Very sorry to hear that Pyro