PyRo's Horse Bets.

argosy2006

If its not broke la la la.......

x PyRo

4:05 Nottingham - Hail Tiberius - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Lightly raced maiden 3 year old who showed little in handicaps until eventually dropping down to this mark of 69 and running a very good race on Good to Soft ground at Leicester last time out, he came 4th of 15 in a race with many unexposed sorts and I thought he ran very well and was even well backed from 33/1 into 20/1 just before the off. He was relatively prominent throughout and stayed on very well for pressure when looking well beat a few out, he ended up just shy of 3 lengths behind the winner. With similar conditions here at Nottingham today I'm expecting another bold bid if all goes to plan, he comes with a slight risk as he bombed out on 3 of his other 4 handicap starts but the soft ground and 10f trip seemed to bring out the best in him. Graham Gibbons is on board again too and this will be his 6th time to ride this fellow, hopefully it'll result in a win soon. Gibbons has a very good 14% strike rate when riding for this trainer and a good profit to level stakes too, he has also won 1 out of 4 rides on 3 year olds at this course for Walford with 1 second and a 4th place also. Walford typically does well at Nottingham, he has a 17% strike rate here and is 2 from 9 with his 3 year olds with a further 3 placing.

With Hail Tiberius clearly suited by going left handed on these galloping tracks he should have a lot to his liking today, he's also well drawn and should get a handy position early. There's no out and out pace but I think that may suit him, he seems to have a nice turn of foot but takes a little longer than most to make it click, the steady gallop should certainly help this if they don't take off to quick and leave him in their wake. He probably will be one of the first off the bridle but he showed a different side to him last time out and I reckon that he's more comfortable in the bigger fields, as some of his results would also back up. He has a good attitude on a going day and comes up against 13 other horses here, if he can get settled just behind the pace and get the gaps when needed I reckon he has the toe on softer ground to win a race like this. I don't think he'll be a maiden for too long and he looks a likely winner of a mark of 69, hopefully today. He made his handicap debut off 78 and in 4 runs dropped 9lbs, I think he has been given a good chance to get off the mark and the odds of 14/1 look massive to me. I had him down as a 6/1 shot with many things being in his favour and he's each way value in the extreme if he gets some luck. Decent each way stakes for me and hopefully he can finish his season off in style, certainly has the ability and potential to do so.

x PyRo

Only selection, was very tempted by High Office in the first at Kempton, just a little too risky for my liking.

TheMilkyPirate

Just wondering pyro how you consider a 4/1 in form favourite a riskier betting proposition than an 8 race maiden beaten a total of nearly 80 lengths in his 8 races.

L'prof

baraca wrote: »

Just wondering pyro how you consider a 4/1 in form favourite a riskier betting proposition than an 8 race maiden beaten a total of nearly 80 lengths in his 8 races.

He usually backs those prices on the nose and obviously feels he has decent opposition in that race. A place in the other race would still mean profit.

PEACEBROTHER

Good question but I dont think any of us have the right to question pyros selection , he is a genius for picking horse, an even if he doesnt always pick winners he gets the market right most of time
Thanks again pyro

heavyballs

i don't see the problem in asking a question,xpyro is usually honest and will explain if needed,i don't think he need's peacebrother to answer for him,there's a lot of ass licking going on here,yes he gets the market right a lot to be fair but it's about making profit
i might start backing an laying on betfair with a few of pyro's tips,that might make more of a steady profit,albeit smaller profit

naughto

heavyballs wrote: »

i don't see the problem in asking a question,xpyro is usually honest and will explain if needed,i don't think he need's peacebrother to answer for him,there's a lot of ass licking going on here,yes he gets the market right a lot to be fair but it's about making profit
i might start backing an laying on betfair with a few of pyro's tips,that might make more of a steady profit,albeit smaller profit

heavy balls great name by the way.some of us have being following this thread from the start so i dont see where the ass licking is .pyro postes his tips here he is not get paid for it and all he is doing is giveing the simple man a chance to beat the bookies.

heavyballs

naughto wrote: »

heavy balls great name by the way.some of us have being following this thread from the start so i dont see where the ass licking is .pyro postes his tips here he is not get paid for it and all he is doing is giveing the simple man a chance to beat the bookies.

i know and i follow it as often as i can, but pyro did say constructive cryticism welcome when he started the thread so i was just saying to the previous poster that pyro is well capable of answering for himself,i don't want to clog the thread up so i'll leave it at that,re the ass licking that only apply's to 1 or 2 who over do it even when pyro picks a stinker

x PyRo

baraca wrote: »

Just wondering pyro how you consider a 4/1 in form favourite a riskier betting proposition than an 8 race maiden beaten a total of nearly 80 lengths in his 8 races.

Good question, I probably should of explained myself.

I didn't want to be taking 4/1 about a horse who is running on the all weather for the first time in 2 years since his only run, which was poor too. He has to carry top weight against some fairly lively opposition and is usually most effective on soft and slower surfaces, although Kempton is one of the slowest AW tracks, which should suit. I like the horse and he has a very good chance I'm just caught in 2 minds as to whether a mark of 85 is a tad risky on a surface where he's virtually untried and unproven. Fahey also has 5 wins from 102 horses he has run at this track, awful records given the quality of horses he has. It's quite possible the majority just don't like it here, or else he's not trying very hard. Hanagan has won on-board 1 of 35 rides here for Fahey and never on a horse 4 or older, I like my stats and when they go against me like that I certainly wouldn't be taking 4/1 about a horse, no matter how likely he may be as I do think he has a lot of claims but too risky. Only 3/1 now too, definitely not getting involved at these prices. The opposition looks very good quality too.

Also, I already explained why I don't think Hail Tiberius is a riskier bet, I prefer value betting to be honest and I think he's got solid claims at the wrong price. Hopefully anyways.

Moffo

x PyRo wrote: »

Good question, I probably should of explained myself.

I didn't want to be taking 4/1 about a horse who is running on the all weather for the first time in 2 years since his only run, which was poor too. He has to carry top weight against some fairly lively opposition and is usually most effective on soft and slower surfaces, although Kempton is one of the slowest AW tracks, which should suit. I like the horse and he has a very good chance I'm just caught in 2 minds as to whether a mark of 85 is a tad risky on a surface where he's virtually untried and unproven. Fahey also has 5 wins from 102 horses he has run at this track, awful records given the quality of horses he has. It's quite possible the majority just don't like it here, or else he's not trying very hard. Hanagan has won on-board 1 of 35 rides here for Fahey and never on a horse 4 or older, I like my stats and when they go against me like that I certainly wouldn't be taking 4/1 about a horse, no matter how likely he may be as I do think he has a lot of claims but too risky. Only 3/1 now too, definitely not getting involved at these prices. The opposition looks very good quality too.

Also, I already explained why I don't think Hail Tiberius is a riskier bet, I prefer value betting to be honest and I think he's got solid claims at the wrong price. Hopefully anyways.

Best of luck with it Pyro !

x PyRo

Market right, horse wrong.

Came 5th in the end, I don't think he enjoyed the really testing ground and couldn't pick up, looked quite awkward on the surface. It was GS last night, wouldn't of been as keen if I knew it was going to be so testing but that's the risk. Backed into 17/2 which is the only positive from that selection.

Not going near High Office but I reckon he'll win now that I haven't. Can't wait for the weekend, I'll have a hell of a lot of bets. Got some planned already.

Johner

I've backed High Office, I think he has a great chance.

Johner

Market got it spot on there.

x PyRo

Thank God I didn't go near him, he was useless despite looking likely. I don't think Fahey wants some of them to win there, they just run terrible at Kempton.

TheMilkyPirate

x PyRo wrote: »

Good question, I probably should of explained myself.

I didn't want to be taking 4/1 about a horse who is running on the all weather for the first time in 2 years since his only run, which was poor too. He has to carry top weight against some fairly lively opposition and is usually most effective on soft and slower surfaces, although Kempton is one of the slowest AW tracks, which should suit. I like the horse and he has a very good chance I'm just caught in 2 minds as to whether a mark of 85 is a tad risky on a surface where he's virtually untried and unproven. Fahey also has 5 wins from 102 horses he has run at this track, awful records given the quality of horses he has. It's quite possible the majority just don't like it here, or else he's not trying very hard. Hanagan has won on-board 1 of 35 rides here for Fahey and never on a horse 4 or older, I like my stats and when they go against me like that I certainly wouldn't be taking 4/1 about a horse, no matter how likely he may be as I do think he has a lot of claims but too risky. Only 3/1 now too, definitely not getting involved at these prices. The opposition looks very good quality too.

Also, I already explained why I don't think Hail Tiberius is a riskier bet, I prefer value betting to be honest and I think he's got solid claims at the wrong price. Hopefully anyways.

Thanks for the explanation pyro. Wasn't having a go either was a genuine question. And in response to another poster, Everyone has the right to question anyone if they feel it will help them.. Except my mum of course!

Good luck at the weekend can't wait myself, Get to see kauto back on saturday and then the breeders cup that evening, It's like christmas coming early!

x PyRo

baraca wrote: »

Thanks for the explanation pyro. Wasn't having a go either was a genuine question. And in response to another poster, Everyone has the right to question anyone if they feel it will help them.. Except my mum of course!

Good luck at the weekend can't wait myself, Get to see kauto back on saturday and then the breeders cup that evening, It's like christmas coming early!

No problem dude, if it wasn't so late when I posted that and I wasn't so sleepy I would of explained myself, I like the horse, I just didn't like how the trainers stats read. Especially from such a top yard it's truly shocking how they do there. Plenty of money to be made from laying Fahey at Kempton, although he doesn't go too often.

I know it was genuine dude, totally understandable question. I enjoy people asking me questions, but only before something happens. If he had of won and people start asking why then that'd be annoying! :pac:

Can't wait for the weekend, it should be brilliant altogether.

x PyRo

1:20 Lingfield - Roodle - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)

Quite a risky proposition in a race like this but the Eve Johnson Houghton trained 3 year old has some pretty decent 2yo form and may just find this quick All Weather surface exactly to her liking. She's a very strong looking filly who is quite well bred and has the potential to be better than what she has shown on her only 2 starts of this season. She was off the track for almost a year when making her comeback in a class 2 contest over 7f at Salisbury this September, that was the first time she was tried over 7f and she finished 4.5 lengths behind the winner in 8th place. Roodle met some trouble in running and the gaps never really opened, she had to check her run on one occasion also and never had much luck. She was still staying on well all the way to the line despite being outclassed by much better horses but I think that race proved that this trip could be her ideal one, breeding suggests it could be also, or she could stretch up to a mile either. Well worth following this one if she's out on the AW for the winter, she looks talented on a going day. I'm surprised she was dropped to 6f then last time out when she ran at Goodwood, I don't think she has the out and out speed to manage the 6f trip but they ran her over it anyways. She came stone last, well behind the winner R Woody, never traveled on her first try on testing ground and was heavily eased over 1 furlong out. I'd be more than happy to write that run off due to the ground and tough Goodwood track, she certainly didn't put her best foot forwards that day but looked in very good knick in the paddocks, looking fit and strong. She comes here fresh having only had 2 runs this calender year and may well outrun her price tag if taking to this surface.

Roodle comes up against a number of proven All Weather performers but quite a few of them are relatively exposed and on tough marks. She certainly shouldn't find a mark of 85 beyond her, she has good Listed level form as a 2 year old and was deemed good enough to open off a handicap of 90 last year. If you ignore her run last time out she is actually quite consistent, never beaten by far and often gives her best. She has a good attitude but her main downfall is pure speed, she has lots of stamina though and will be highly suited to this trip and may take to this fast surface like a duck to water, although she may take to it badly, who knows. I certainly don't think she warrants being the 25/1 outsider of the field and that price looks mightily generous to me. I'd have her hovering around a 10/1 shot, way short of the bookies expectations. All she has to prove is her ability to handle the surface but she should be flying fit having had those 2 runs and has the wonderful Seb Sanders on board to steer her home, hopefully in front. Seb rides the course well and has a 15% strike rate, depending on tactics used he could be a very good booking for Roodle. She is usually held up but can race just behind the leaders and with no strong pace here she may just race a bit more forward than usual, Sanders is exceptional from the front or from coming just off the pace and those tactics could pay dividends here but I've a feeling she could be held up again, which is risky with the possibility of meeting trouble in running but I'll take my chances and I certainly think she will win someday soon if she's out again soon, hopefully she wins today but it is a tough race. 25/1 is a wonderful price and she's worth small each way stakes in the hope that she handles conditions.

thesandeman

Hope I dont interrupt your train of thought but what do you think of Freddies Girl 1.55 Ling? Stefs Tweet seems to imply something to me. Ive the dreaded 'W' word to do tomorrow so I wont be able to keep an eye on market.
(ps: for any After Hours lurkers its a different 'W' word :-P )

x PyRo

I wouldn't go near it off this mark but go for it if you fancy it dude, plus my next selection opposes it. :-D

thesandeman

x PyRo

Food for thought below. :pac:

1:55 Lingfield - Al Gillani - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (StanJames)

Looks an absolute monster price based on his 4 timer notched between the end of '08 and the beginning of '09, all gained on the All Weather surfaces and including 1 wins from a mark just 2lbs lower than todays. He wasn't seen for a year, not sure why but came back in decent form on first 2 starts, the results suggest poor enough runs but he was only beaten by 3 and 5 lengths respectively, then he bombed out at Kempton last time out but traveled very well for a long time before weakening badly, possibly just a blip and worth forgiving. He is now re-partnered with George Baker, the man who guided him to all 4 of his career wins and also a 2nd place over C&D when behind a Prescott horse called Prescription off level weights, now rated 97 by the handicapper. Baker clearly gets the best out of this horse, he has only been on board on 5 occasions so the 4 wins and a second reads quite well. That 2nd place was off a mark 6lbs higher than he runs off today and this may prove a very handy mark, especially considering how easily he scored off just 2lbs lower at Kempton last year when winning by over 3 lengths in a tougher race. If he comes back to anything like the old force he was then this race is certainly here for the taking. He goes well off the back of a strong pace and there is a fair bit of speed here in the race and from stall 2 he should get a perfect sit in behind it, that race behind Prescription he was caught very wide and possibly cost him a couple of lengths in the end but he wouldn't of won regardless. He should have a good chance of going the shortest way around today and that could pay dividends especially with having such a capable jockey on board.

Al Gillani is trained by Jim Boyle, a man who I rate highly as a trainer. His horses are usually worth a second look when George Baker is on board and they strike up a decent partnership 6 wins from 32 runs on the All Weather, giving them a 19% strike rate with 10 further placed efforts. They've only teamed up on 6 occasions at this course with form reading : 2-3-5-1-1-2. Very impressive on the face of it but all of them were short prices of 7/2 or less. Baker rides Lingfield well and has a very good 15% win rate with 150 wins on the AW here including 5 wins from his last 20 rides, he's a class jockey on his day and he's ideally suited to my selection here. Al Gillani is somehow deemed to be a 20/1 shot, he may not have shown much in the way of results of late but I think the main issue is that he wasn't seeing out his races, he should be fit for those 3 runs and comes here fresh and possibly ready for a winter campaign. Interestingly, he's now tongue tied for the first time, possibly Boyle has picked up on something and this may just do the trick and help in regain interest. He's a very decent horse on his day with a nice turn of foot and with a bit of luck here I think he could place at the very least if coming back into his own. He's an 8/1 shot in my book, very much different from the price the bookies currently have. SJ goes 20's while he's shorter everywhere else, this isn't a best odds price but I don't think that should be a problem. If he goes off higher than this price I doubt he'll be winning, he has bounced back from poor runs before and will hopefully do so again. Only worth small each way stakes but if he's on his game he has the ability to go close in what looks a decent race. Here's hoping.

thesandeman

Ach Ill be a metrosexual and do both :-D Wont be able to do much gambling during the day anyway so one of ye might satisfy me lol.

x PyRo

2:30 Lingfield - Ivory Silk - 2pts @ 8/1 (VC)

5 year old mare who is much better on the All Weather in comparison to her Turf form, she certainly showed a lot more than usual on the turf when coming 2nd to the impressive Cardinal last time out, possibly suggesting she's about to return to the winners enclosure. In her hay day she was rated as high as 87 on the AW, she won off 74 & 80, placed off 85, 86 & 87 and gets in here off a mark of 74 after her jockeys 5lb claim is taken off her official rating of 79. Toby Atkinson gets the ride again today after giving an impressive ride last time out, he possibly sent her to the front a bit to early but she wouldn't of won anyways, in my opinion. The return to the AW is a huge plus, she hasn't won since '08 on it but has put in a number of fine performances, more than enough to win off these terms. She is effective at both 5 & 6 furlongs and runs today over the latter, a trip which she has won over once from 4 runs on this surface. She has never won at Lingfield but has placed on 3 of her 6 runs here and was unlucky not to win on a couple of those occasions.

Ivory Silk is usually held up in rear and that may pay huge dividends here in a race where there is bucket loads of pace, potentially playing right into her hands on a track that favours those running on late, she also has bundles of stamina mixed with speed so there's very little chance that she could get outpaced. The Jeremy Gask yard have been in decent enough form of late with a fair few of their horses running well and he claims that todays trio should all run well, hopefully he's telling the truth! His horses don't seem to do too well here as he has only had 4 winners from 70 odd runners but the jockey rides the course well and has a 12% strike rate, he's a big plus to this mare and his 5lb claim could prove invaluable. Ritual is the one to beat and all the rage in the betting, he's very well bred and looks a progressive sort but he beat little more than moving trees last time out and now tackles the AW for the first time, he's likely to go off odds on and that's madness in my opinion and hardly justified. I fancy Ivory Silk to relish conditions here and hopefully put up a big test to the favourite, there are a few other dangers but this selection strikes me as the best way of opposing the favourite. 8/1 is good value and she was a 9/2 shot in my book, small stakes yet again but I'm expecting a decent run if she turns up like she did last time out.

pelliven

roodle is a non runner

x PyRo

Cheers dude.

Big gamble on Al Gillani, as short as 8/1 now.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers dude.

Big gamble on Al Gillani, as short as 8/1 now.

Good shout on Al Gillani Pyro. I'd love to have some of that 20/1

x PyRo

Cheers Nulty, unbelievable price, possibly the only benefit of SJ's now ditching their BOG is that their prices are quite sweet. Win or lose I'm happy to get the market right, it's all about the long term to me but I hope he wins!

x PyRo

Al Gillani looked bang in contention coming around the bend then he just stopped. Just my luck at the moment.

It'll click again soon.

x PyRo

2:00 Southwell - Where's Reiley - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (PaddyPower)

Very progressive at the beginning of 2010 over C&D, winning 4 out of 5 runs including 3 when this 5lb claimer, Dean Heslop, has been on board. He runs here off a mark of 79 which goes down to his last winning mark of 74 once Heslop's claim is taken into account. He's an out and out speedball in the final couple of furlongs and may have a lot more improvement to come, especially considering what David Barron can do with his handicappers. Where's Reiley was off from May until October, his 2 comeback runs were shocking, only beat 1 horse home in both but a return to Southwell combined with Barron's ability to get a horse to run well after a poor showing leads me to believe we may see a lot more to come from this 4 year old gelding. One thing I've noticed is that Where's Reiley seems to race a lot more prominent on every other track but not here, if he's held up as he has been for most of his wins then I think his chances improve greatly. Heslop is 3/3 over C&D when riding this fellow and he does very well for David Barron with them having a 19% strike rate at this course when partnering up and a nice return on investment for anyone constantly following them. The Barron is the boss around Southwell, he has a massive £200 profit to £1 level stakes and a 21% strike rate here from 755 runners, it's very impressive and he's worth following blind at Southwell. His yard seems in good knick and the last 2 horses he has sent out have won in good style, hopefully he's sending this fella out to get his head in front too.

Where's Reiley is drawn well in stall 7, right down the middle of the track which is the place to be at Southwell. The ground is quicker there and that should suit him perfectly, I'm just hoping he is held up today as I don't think he'll have any advantage due to racing prominently. He has run well after bad performances before and despite coming here in what looks like poor form, I do not think it'll have too much of an effect if the horses is out to try, as you never know what you'll get with a Barron horse, much like Mark Johnston in my opinion. There is a bit of speed in this race but nothing too quick, this will suit my fellow perfectly as he seems to get outpaced early on before finding top gear in the final couple of furlongs, with less initial speed he should have a much better chance of keeping up before hitting the turbo button. His last win here was off 74, in a race where he won by 3 lengths, I think there's a lot more to come from this fellow and based on that there could well be as he seemed well ahead of his mark back then. I have my doubts about a lot of the field here and Where's Reiley looks the most solid bet in comparison to the rest, he loves hit here, he's on a winnable mark (IMO) and he has been drawn perfectly. He's a 5/1 shot in my book and 12's are mental. Decent each way stakes at a wonderful price.