PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

That's my only bet, nothing else jumps out.

PEACEBROTHER

Just wondering how do you rate The Nifty Fox chances in same race as your selection

x PyRo

Woah, I got that one really wrong. Never involved.

Going flat out tomorrow in the hope of a good day, lots of races to get through and hopefully a winner or two. Couldn't buy one at the moment but Saturdays usually change that. Here's hoping.

Didn't see your message in time PB, so I couldn't reply.

x PyRo

2:00 Doncaster - Eton Rifles - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (PaddyPower)

Relatively lightly raced for a 5 year old, he has only had 15 career runs and comes here in the form of his life. Although he's running off a joint career high mark he has very solid claims based on his last 3 runs, specifically his 2nd place in a Listed race when attempting to make all and just failing by a length behind Harrison George. They raced off level weights that day and my selection was rated 24lbs worse than the winner who is a 111 rated animal and very good on his day. A repeat of that performance would see him win this quite handsomely, although it's not as easy as that. He was sent off as a 5/1 favourite in a hot handicap last time out at York on similar ground to what he'll face here, he traveled like a dream and was the last one off the bridle but when Justonefortheroad loomed up alongside him he didn't want to know anymore and ended up going down by half a length. They re-oppose each other here once again with my selection 1lb better off but I believe Eton Rifles has the beating of him more often than not and he's a larger price too which is always good. The draw shouldn't have too much effect over this 7f trip but he is drawn in stall 21 (widest stall) which would typically be a good place to be positioned as the highest stall has a decent record at the Doncaster course, the likely pace is all over the place so I can't see where it's going to come from for sure but Welsh Emperor likes to take his fields along at a good gallop and he's drawn not too far away from my selection in stall 15 and this should suit with Eton Rifles likely to get a good position in behind, if all goes as predicted.

Eton Rifles is trained by Howard Johnson, who has seen his yard in decent knick of late with a lot of his horses running well without getting the wins he has deserved, hopefully that'll change here. Johnson doesn't have many runners at Doncaster on the flat and he only sends this fellow out to this track, he has only had 1 runner at the track all year on the flat and that was a winner. Paul Mulrennan gets the leg up today and he has won 2 races on board Eton Rifles, with many more fine efforts, mainly in 2009 and also in that fine Listed run on his penultimate start. Mulrennan doesn't have impressive stats at Doncaster but he's a fine jockey on his day and usually quite good on a prominent racer, he also seems to get on quite well with this horse and the horse has the ability to run anything from 6-8lbs higher than his current mark, which should certainly put him bang in contention here. The more rain, the better. This 5 year old really enjoys cut in the ground and there could well be rain overnight, which gives him a much better chance than the 12/1 price suggests. This is the first time he comes to Doncaster, it's a flat galloping track which should suit him very well, it's a tough race but Eton Rifles has a hell of a lot going for him, he comes here in career best form and hasn't had a tough season by any means. I'm expecting a big run here and he's the 15/2 second favourite in my book and I don't think 12's will be around for long, there's 4 places paid also which is a massive plus and I'd be slightly surprised if he doesn't at least get into the top 4. His win claims are mighty solid and if he can turn around the form with Justonefortheroad then he should be winning this as that one is potentially the one to beat with Hanagan on board. Decent each way stakes at a price much too big.

blindpilot

Havent been on this thread in a wee while. Condolences on your loss Pyro. here's to a money making weekend!!!

ghosttown

Pyro, best of luck tomorrow... i'll be on Eton too, and not just because I've always loved The Jam !!

x PyRo

Cheers lads, Powers must be watching! He's 9/1 now.

blindpilot

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers lads, Powers must be watching! He's 9/1 now.

Ha ha they're worried about you now man.

x PyRo

They've little to worry about if recent form holds up! I'm hoping that's not the case though.

x PyRo

2:35 Doncaster - All Annalena - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365)

Previous selection of mine who I backed at 25/1 last time she was running, she won so easily in a decent 16 runner handicap at Haydock when scoring by 3.5 lengths off a mark of 80 after being cut some slack by the handicapper. The combination of soft ground and a 10 furlong trip saw her show her true colours on a UK track for the first time since coming to the country from Germany where she had some fine form in similar Listed races to this, although they wouldn't be as competitive. She was seen as good enough to be given an opening handicap mark of 99 when coming here, a mark that would make her competitive in this race if she could run to that level. Her official rating has risen by 9lbs to 89 after that win, on OR she stands little chance here but I do believe she could potentially be a stone better than her current rating, although I'd expect it'd take a top trainer to bring her up to that level but at these odds she's worth chancing. She'll be highly suited to the flat and galloping nature of the Doncaster track, the trip is her optimum and the ground should be 100% ideal. The wonderful Dane O'Neill takes the ride, he's a brilliant jockey and managed to get All Annalena her first career win at the 13th attempt on his second ride on her. He got good runs out of her on both occasions and the first time he was on board she finished in 3rd place, 5 lengths behind Senate who is vying for favouritism in the race after this one. My selection pulled very hard that day under hold up tactics and I thought the 5 length defeat was a wonderful run with all things taken into account, she proved this theory next time out. That's a good form in my opinion, even without the win and my selection had to concede 5lbs to the 3 year old Senate despite being 5lbs worse off on the ratings, a 10lb swing which off level weights could of had the gap between the 2 quite close, although that's up for debate.

Now that All Annalena has got her head in front we could see more from her, certainly enough to put up a challenge here. I reckon she'll have to find around a stone in improvement to win this but it's not beyond her and only 4lbs higher than her opening UK handicap mark. She was beaten by a short head in a Listed race in Germany on 2 occasions and maybe she might get the opportunity to right the wrongs this time. The tactics used last time out were perfect, she didn't pull hard and she was let do what she wanted once the pace was slowed down, she tracked the leaders and took the lead just over 3 furlongs out and powered clear, never for catching. There's not a whole lot of pace here and she has a perfect draw in stall 11 to get a nice sit in behind whoever tries to make the running, the pace could be slow and if she gets the chance to pick it up a couple of furlongs out then she could prove very hard to catch as her turn of foot on the softer ground seems very effective, whether it's effective enough to trouble a field of this quality is anyones guess but 33/1 in a race like this is certainly attractive enough to take a chance on. She's a 4 year old with only 13 career runs, so I think there could be more to come yet and her trainer has some mighty impressive stats given the quality of horses she has. Overall, Lucy Wadham shows a profit to level stakes if you backed all of the 1020 runners she has sent out, absolutely wonderful. Her overall strike rate is 14% and her horses have been running very well since the beginning of September. She has only ever raced 1 horse on the flat at Doncaster so I find it interesting that she sends one of her best horses to this track, although I think it'll fully suit All Annalena's running style. Wadham and O'Neill rarely team up but have 1 winner and a place from 4 runners, hopefully they can add to that here. O'Neill is riding well of late and he rides the course well, shows a profit and has an 11% strike rate. He has won on 4 of his last 16 rides here (25%) and he's wonderful at getting a horse settled, which he'll have to do here, he's also prone to the odd massive priced winner and I'm hoping that'll happen again here. 33/1 is madness, she will have to find a lot of improvement but has the ability to do so and her place claims are quite solid in my opinion. She's a 14/1 shot in my book and comes here on the back of a career best, likely to be full of confidence, has conditions to relish and a great horseman on her back. I think she's worth a small each way bet in the hope that she finds what's needed to challenge. If she's outclassed here she'll be worth keeping an eye on for the 2011 flat season in handicaps as she has a lot more to give to the racing game but she owes me nothing. Lovely filly and a lovely price, here's hoping for a big run.

x PyRo

Price cut, lol. 28's now.

x PyRo

3:10 Doncaster - Sirvino - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Ladbrokes)

I've been looking at this race for hours, going through each horse on numerous occasions trying to solve it and I keep coming back to the David Barron trained York John Smith's Cup winner of '09. He really strikes me as having a very lively chance in this 23 runner field, especially having run so well last time out when upped to 1m 4f for the first time and tried Soft ground for the first time in a long time. He ran a cracker to come 2nd behind Vulcanite despite being hampered at the start and looking one paced a long way from home. He also had been partnered with Tom Eaves for the first time as Phillip Makin was riding Poet's Place elsewhere. He is now reunited with Makin, the man who won on him 4 times during his 4 year old campaign in which he was one of the most progressive handicappers of the year, improving from a mark of 65 to end there year rated as a 101 animal, stunning progression from a horse with a hell of a lot of ability. He ran here before off a 2lb higher mark just 3 starts ago, he ran a shocker and beat just one home but I still believe this left handed, flat and galloping track is exactly what he needs. Most of his good form has been on left handed galloping tracks and this is his first run over 12f in these conditions on his favoured terms. He has went up 2lbs for that 2nd place last time out and he's now 5lbs higher than his last win in the John Smith's Cup, I fully believe this mark is not beyond him and he should come on a lot for having tried similar conditions at Ascot when last seen 4 weeks ago. He also only carries 8st 13lbs, his lowest riding weight in quite a while and weight is certainly important to me over these middle distances.

Sirvino is drawn in stall 18, not the best place in terms of getting positioned but he's best when held up near the rear so he's very likely to be unaffected by the draw. There doesn't seem to be an excessive amount of pace but there is enough prominent horses to suggest that they could be taken along at a decent pace, hopefully playing into the hands of David Barron's charge who will relish a speed test and not an out and out stamina test. Barron doesn't do too well at Doncaster but I'm quite sure he'll have had this race planned out for Sirvino who comes here on the back of a relatively quiet season having only had 5 runs, needing the first 3 before actually showing his old ability. Regardless of Barron's poor track record he is great at having a horse ready to strike and this will be the 5 year olds last run of 2010, ending on a high note I hope. Barron's yard are in good knick of late and his combination with Phillip Makin have produced a 20% strike rate from their last 20 partnerships. Makin is riding very well of late and he does alright at the track with 10 wins from 100 odd mounts, he's also a good jockey over these middle distances and times his runs to perfection, he'll need to be at his best here today but he has a horse than runs really well in big fields and relishes todays conditions, I'm hoping for the best and I think he should place at least if he gets a clear run. I'm only playing with small stakes such is the tough nature of this race but 16/1 looks huge, he's a 9/1 shot in my book and could even justify shorter. He's the out and out value of the race for me and when I try to find something else I just keep asking myself "Will he beat Sirvino on these terms?", the answer has been a straight out "no" with the majority of the field and I'm hoping I'll be proved right. He should run his race and go very well, there's no reason why he shouldn't.

x PyRo

Awful unlucky Pete, I was on the 3rd placed one e/w so I was happy but I thought Midday would piss it to be honest.

3:40 Doncaster - Doncaster Rover - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Has massive claims on form and at these weights, the only reason he's anything near this price is because he's not from a fashionable yard. He has so much impressive form in the book that I can't understand how come he's a 12/1 shot. He's a Group performer previously and placed at Group 3 level in May, winner at this level on numerous occasions and is ideally suited by cut in the ground that he'll get here. He was only 5 lengths behind Markab in the Haydock Sprint Cup on ground slightly too fast and he has beaten that fellow by 5 lengths on Good to Soft ground before. He was only 2l behind Equiano last year on rapidly fast ground at this level and that one has won a Group 1 since and has retired. My selections last win was only 3 starts ago in this Listed level when beating Advanced quite handily with many more decent animals behind those. He raced at Group 1 and Group 3 level since, performing well without setting the world alight. He's dropped back to the level where he has most success and with everything going for him he's deemed a 12/1 shot? There must be something I'm missing as he's miles ahead in my book and looks to have the form of something likely to be around 4/1 at most in a race like this. Either the bookies or I have slipped up badly here but I'm very confident he will go close here and hopefully place at worst. My only worry is the yard haven't had a winner since September but that's only 28 runners ago as they're a small yard.

Doncaster Rover is now fitted with first time blinkers, which I find interesting. He hasn't really been seeing out his races too well of late, bar when winning. The blinkers should certainly help him keep his mind on the job and if having an effect first time out then we could see more from him, which means victory if it happens. Robert Winston takes the ride for DH Brown, they've a very good partnership stats wise with a 19% win rate from 26 runners. Brown has only had 2 winners from 24 runners at this course but Doncaster Rover should be ideally suited to the track that he shares a name with, his 2 runs here ended in half length and 2 length defeats, both over 5 furlongs, a trip too short for him. He has a lot of form claims here and I'm still bamboozled by the price, normally I'd advise max each way stakes here but I'm going to listen to the old saying, "If it looks too good to be true, it probably is" and I'm just going to place small each way stakes on him. He's a 4/1 shot in my book and would justify being even shorter. I'm hoping he runs a big race and I think he will but I'm afraid I've missed something blatantly obvious, we'll see come race time. Can't see this price being around for too long regardless.

x PyRo

Thanks for removing your post Pete, now it looks like I was talking to myself. :mad:

:pac:

x PyRo

3:00 Down Royal - Osana - 3pts @ 5/1 (VC)

High class hurdler turned high class chaser and looks a monster price here given everything likely to suit. He will have a battle to beat Pandorama who looks a very classy type but he's well in at the weights given that he's rated 2lbs higher than that one and carries half a stone less. He ran great races in defeat at Cheltenham, Aintree and Punchestown, all of them coming in 2m Grade 1 chases. He now step up to 2m 4f for the first time over the bigger obstacles and I reckon it should suit, he also should be suited to the testing nature of the Down Royal track and he'll relish the ground conditions too. He loves soft ground and has won 3 from 6 on it, also having never finished outside the top 3, the combination of the ground and step up in trip should see him in an even better light, he's also a very good jumper when on song. He's trained by Edward O'Grady, his yard isn't in great knick of late but with his top horses starting to come out in the coming weeks he should see things picking up, he pulled Osana out of a prep race not long ago as he was waiting for Soft ground and that he does get today. This should be race to get him ready for the Powers Gold Cup at Cheltenham next month and there's no better place to run him that Down Royal, a track that O'Grady has a mighty fine 20% strike rate and his horses go very well at the track usually.

Andrew McNamara takes the ride, he knows the horse well having ridden him on 7 occasions including 2 wins. He's a jockey I rate highly and he has 5 wins from 25 rides over fences at Down Royal, giving him a 20% strike rate to match the trainer he's riding for today, hopefully a good omen. Osana has a decent record fresh and I don't see that causing any problems here, it'll be a reasonably tough task by all accounts but he's clearly a high class individual and has to have a very good chance here. Pandorama warrants favoritism but shouldn't be half the price of a horse who could be even better over this trip, has solid G1 form, loves the ground and should be suited by the track. I have him down as the 15/4 second favourite with the Nicholls runner not far behind either, I just prefer those who are well in at the weights and O'Grady's 8 year old certainly is. Medium sized win bet as there's little point going each way at this price.

x PyRo

Last selection folks.

2:10 Wincanton - Black Jack Blues - 2pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

Highly progressive 7 year old hurdler who made a cracking comeback when jumping brilliantly last time out to score by 9 lengths in a decent handicap, he now takes another leap up in class with an added 13lbs on his back but I believe he's capable of overcoming that and he's one to keep on the right side of for this season. He's usually a front runner and it's quite risky taking him here in a race that contains Australia Day and Barizan but I think my selection could let them go at each other and take advantage in the final stages of the race as I expect they could go at breakneck speeds and run themselves out of the race, the latter is a bit of a header altogether and takes his fields along at severely rapid gallops and if that happens again it could well play into my selections hands as he has both the speed and stamina to cope with a race run in that fashion. I'd be even happier if Black Jack Blues somehow managed to get an uncontested lead but that's highly unlikely in this race. He also handles all ground and regardless of what it's like today he should have no problems in that respect, he's also unbeaten at no further than 2miles, that's from 3 races. He's also 2 wins from 2 runs on right handed tracks, although he has raced predominantly on left handed tracks but it's still a nice looking stat as he's a very good jumper going either way.

Aodhagan Conlon takes the ride today, he was on board this fellow last time out and gave him a fine ride, he takes off a very valuable 7lb from his claim and is a very capable jockey on his day but he's inexperienced and hasn't yet reached 200 career rides. He has a 12% strike rate over hurdles but has yet to win a race at this track from 4 attempts, although they were on poor horses so I would pass no heed on that stat. Black Jack Blues is trained by Rebecca Curtis, she's a class trainer and has a 20% strike rate with all of her runners, which is highly impressive and a credit to her training abilities. She has only had 7 runners at this track before, never had a winner but can hopefully change that today. Her charge has drifted out to 6/1 from 5's overnight and I'm snapping that up, it's a brilliant price in this race and with so much in his favour I had him down as a 7/2 shot. He's only worth small enough stakes as how the race will be run is too difficult to work out but I think he's worth following this season and should come on 10fold for having that recent run in which he was so impressive. I expect he'll take this race in his stride and continue his impressive progression and go on to bigger and better things, that's the plan anyways.

Total Staked - 15pts

x PyRo

All Annalena still shortening, this could get interesting!

DOC09UNAM

x PyRo wrote: »

Thanks for removing your post Pete, now it looks like I was talking to myself. :mad:

:pac:

I've been here all night, and you've definitely just been talking to yourself.

x PyRo

Off your head on MDMA again Doc? Kids these days.

:pac:

DOC09UNAM

Who are you talking to man??

:P

x PyRo

I can undelete posts man, you don't know my powers.

DOC09UNAM

Well fúcking played sir.

well played indeed

No MDMA for me tonight, that shít is dangerous

How you been brohsef stalin, been a while since i've had a gamble on the horses!

x PyRo

lol it comes in handy at times. People can't try and trick me. :pac:

Yeah that stuff's mad, it'd come in handy when watching the last number of horses I've backed. At least they'd be pink and able to fly.

All's good with me Mein Fuhrer. Keeping on the QT until a potential drinking session later tonight. I've been up for 36 hours straight so I could do with some sleep soon.

DOC09UNAM

That reminds me of a great tactic I had for my sisters wedding, spent a few days staying up 36 hours during the week, it got me ready for the wedding day, and christ did it work, ended up going for breakfast the morning after the wedding before going to bed, and still managed to be up at eleven and ready for the day after.

Mein Fuhrer, I like it, it can be my new name

You should stay up till about 11-12, get 8 hours sleep and then head out at 9, you'll be fresh as a daisy and still have plenty left in the tank come 5 o clock at night

x PyRo

It's not easy staying up for so long, I've been doing it on and off for years. Flat out at the moment with the betting and other stuff, not enough hours in the day.

I'll be going to bed after the morning line which is over around 9 I think, then back up at 12 to get ready to watch the racing, then the United game at 4, then alcohol from 7 onwards. Flat out is an understatement. :pac:

In other news, I'll be putting some of the betting bank towards buying my first thoroughbred Mare in the next couple of months, it'll be the beginning of the x PyRo breed of amazing horses. lmao

Anyways, I'm off dude, good luck if you're backing anything today. I can't bloody wait! Should be a fantastic end to the flat season.

DOC09UNAM

Christ man, flatout is an understatement, you mad baaaaaastard.

Enjoy tomorrow man, should be a good day, think I'll avoid the horses and stick to the footy this weekend!

scopper

Some serious money must be riding on all those! I'll back the lot with some mini-bets though I have a good feeling about these after reading your reasoning (I just don't have the cash to back it up at the mo!).

x PyRo

Nosed into 2nd. Nice place money but I should of been collecting a fortune there. Poor Eton Rifles just can't get his head in front.

Johner

That was just terribly unlucky, done in the last stride. Still a good shout mate.

x PyRo

The minimum distance between ensuring a 100% ROI after the first race, God damnit! When you're going bad it's always so much tougher. +4pts from that one though, happy yet sad. Hopefully some of the others mate up for it. Cheers J.