PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Now for the AW racing. Prices to come.

1:30 Wolves - Just Timmy Marcus - 2pts

Hasn't won for over a year since winning his opening 2 races at this track and has since run 23 times without success. He has went very close on many occasions, usually doing his best work with Graham Gibbons on board, one of the best jockeys at riding this Wolverhampton track, he has a 12% strike rate here and shows a profit of £144 to £1 level stakes, very impressive. My selections biggest defeat with Gibbons on board was by just over 3 lengths and he's now just 1lb higher than when winning his debut handicap start. Gibbons has been on board Just Timmy Marcus on 8 occasions at Wolves, winning 2, placing on 3 occasions along with a 4th and 2 5th place finishes. He has been turned over in running at odds of 2.04, 1.05, 1.05, 1.51 and 2.04 again, some days it's going to click and he won't get beaten at a course he loves. He has never run a bad race here with Graham on board and I'm hoping that's the same case once again. He has had a busy campaign but there was a lot of cause for optimism from his last run, he finished 5th out of 11 at this course but over 1m 1f, he hit 2.04 in running after taking the lead just over a furlong out but he tired badly and hung under pressure.

Just Timmy Marcus now steps back to 7 furlongs and based on his last run that's exactly what's needed. He's also tactically versatile and should be suited by any sort of race, there's not too much pace here and I expect he'll track the leader before trying to take the lead inside the final furlong should the opportunity arise, I expect it will do and that's where the shorter distance will come in very handy. There's a short run in at this course and it does favour horses who race handy so I'm hoping the same tactics that were used last time out are also used here. He's drawn in stall 1 which is right against the rail on the slowest part of the track apparently but it has a very good record and should ensure he'll get a nice position. Gibbons will be key to getting this fellow over the line in first and keeping him interested as he seems to finish out his races poorly at times and somehow snatches defeat from the jaws of victory, he'll come good someday soon and I reckon it could be today. He's likely to be around the 8/1 mark at most and I'll be very happy with that price if I get it come morning, small win bet for a horse I've marked up as a 7/2 shot.

DOC09UNAM

Have you taken a leaf out of my book and just started backing horses with funny names :P

Might do an each way double, hmmm!

x PyRo

Shit, I've been ousted. :pac:

If I was doing that I wouldn't be spending 12 hours a day going through these shit cards.

x PyRo

Last one. Price to come.

3:40 Wolves - Hart Of Gold - 2pts @ 8/1

This is an awful race altogether and contains horses who can't run much faster than myself but I fancy the Ron Harris trained 6 year old to gain his first victory in 2 years from a much diminished handicap mark of 48, 12lbs lower than his last win, 32lbs lower than his highest rated win and a massive 40lbs lower than his highest official rating. Hart Of Gold now competes in a class 7 event against fellow out of form horses who haven't excessive amounts of ability and if he even retains a small percentage of his former abilities then he should prove to have a solid chance over a track that suits his prominent racing style to perfection and a course where he has went well at on numerous occasions. He's partnered today by Tom McLaughlin, a jockey I rate highly on the AW and a jockey who has got him to come 2nd on 2 occasions and a 4th too. McLaughlin rides the course very well and 3 of his last 8 rides here have won, he has an overall win rate of 10% and is very good with horses who run from the front.

Hart Of Gold usually gives his running and is generally consistent, he ran a terrible race last time out but didn't get the chance to dictate on very Heavy ground which doesn't suit him at all, he's drawn in stall 2 here so he has the perfect position to lead or sit in behind the pace setters, a tactic which has paid dividends in the past. This 6f trip here is his optimum and against horses like these I'm expecting a big run. He's currently trading around the 10/1 mark and I have him down as half that price so hopefully that'll be the price come morning and I'll be using small stakes yet again here. This is truly a shocking race but the horse has ability on his day and could click again some day soon, he has looked likely all year on numerous occasions and a mark of 48 is certainly not beyond him, his last handicap run off 48 resulted in a 2nd placed finish with McLaughlin on board too, I'm hoping he can go one better here.

Quazzie

x PyRo wrote: »

2:45 Southwell - Hot Tottie - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Only 5/1 on PP :mad:

UrbanSea

Hart of gold top priced at 8/1.
The lad in the 1.30 is 5/1 top.

mike65

Hart of Gold in a class 7? I thought "bandit class" had been done away with!

x PyRo

Another day that's typical of how things have been.

Hot Tottie put up at 12/1 goes off 4/1 and comes 4th, half a length away from place money. Got the market spot on.

Just Timmy Marcus traveled like a dream, went off 5/1 hit 1.17 in running and finished 1.5 lengths away in 3rd. Still worth following as he's clearly in good knick and due a win soon.

Hart Of Gold ran decently, finished 6th, just under 2.5 lengths away from the winner but never really looked like holding on in front. Should still be on a handy mark though and worth keeping an eye on despite the awful quality races he runs in.

Not sure what I'll have for tomorrow but scouring the cards at the minute, wouldn't mind a winner soon.

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

Just Timmy Marcus traveled like a dream, went off 5/1 hit 1.17 in running and finished 1.5 lengths away in 3rd. Still worth following as he's clearly in good knick and due a win soon.

Winner hit 100/1 in running I heard for 6 quid,would have been nice.

x PyRo

Would of loved 6 quid at that price!

No selections tomorrow, poor racing and a huge lottery altogether. I'm going to be a lot more selective until the racing settles down and formlines start to come to the fore. Too risky at the moment.

Moffo

x PyRo wrote: »

Would of loved 6 quid at that price!

No selections tomorrow, poor racing and a huge lottery altogether. I'm going to be a lot more selective until the racing settles down and formlines start to come to the fore. Too risky at the moment.

Thanks Pyro.. very sensible advice

x PyRo

I'm really bored so I'm having some AW selections, more bets, smaller stakes and hopefully a chance to get a winner or two, just for confidence more than anything.

Shorter write ups too.

12:30 Southwell - Silent Blessing - 1pt

Reasonably talented 2 year old maiden who has already experienced this course and distance on two occasions when sent off favourite and joint favourite on those runs. The first run say him fade easily but next time out he broke poorly and needed reminders early on before staying on inside the final furlong to come 4th, 2 lengths away from the winner. He has since raced twice on the turf, not beaten by too far either time but looks a much better prospect back over this surface and he's bred to be a decent 2 year old. This is a poor enough race and there's likely to be an odds on shot in Monsieur Jamie, he looks opposable to me at those prices and this is his first run on the AW which doesn't help. Silent Blessing is drawn in stall 9, not a bad place to be over the 5f trip, not 100% ideal but shouldn't have too much bearing on the race considering its poor quality. Trainer and jockey have a combined 19% strike rate when pairing up, they're 1 out of 2 when it's 2 year olds involved. Cowell does well at this course here and has won this race before, hopefully he's out to get this one over the line and at a likely price of 4/1 he may well be worth a small go.

1:00 Southwell - Zamina - 1pt

Another 2 year old maiden here, well bred and likely to make a decent middle distance type in time but has shown enough in the past month to suggest she could be winning something like this soon. She improved for being switched to the AW at the beginning of October and ran 3 solid races in succession, coming 2nd twice and 4th on the other occasion, she hit 1.22, 1.25 and 2.02 in those races and it may only be a matter of time before she hits 1.01 and wins, hopefully today. Opening mark of 66 may not be beyond here and this race doesn't look too strong despite containing many unexposed types, decent jockey booked and yard going well enough of late, they also do well around here and have a 14% strike rate, showing a profit to SP also. The horse ran over an extended 1m at Wolverhampton last time out, steps back to 1m here and that will hopefully do the trick, also combined with a quicker surface here should be of benefit too. Stall 10 doesn't look a great draw but based on the stats it's perfect and there's a bias to being drawn high at Southwell over a mile, quite interesting. Zamina should be around the 6/1 mark and is worth small stakes in the hope that she finally fulfills her promise and gets her head in front.

1:30 Southwell - Miss Cosette - 2pts

Another 2 year old maiden, everyone will probably think I've gone a little mad as I never back maidens but whilst the formlines are taking time to come to the fore the horses with little if any form may be worth taking a chance on. This one certainly fits the bill based on stats as Southwell is the breeding ground for many a David Barron winner, especially when he comes here with his 2 year olds. She has very little form to go on but should improve for the switch to polytrack and she'll be carrying a bottom weight of 7st 10lbs after Neil Farley's 5lb claim is taken into account, that should certainly give her a big shout in this Nursery Handicap. David Barron has a 21% strike rate at the course and shows a £200 profit to £1 level stakes on all of his 757 previous runners at Southwell, very impressive to say the least and he's always worth following. He has a massive 35% strike rate with his 2 year olds here having had 23 winners from 65 runners giving him a 118% return on investment when backing them. 12 of his last 40 runners have won here and he visits with just the one today, she's certainly likely to be a lot better than this mark of 47 and that coupled with a 5lb claim from a jockey I rate highly should be enough to see her get very competitive here. Farley is a very good claimer and huge value for it, he has only ridden once for Barron, which ended in a victory and I find it interesting that he gets the ride on the filly here. Miss Cosette is likely to be around the 6/1 mark, she's currently trading at 9/1 on Betfair and if I get that price come morning I'll be extremely happy. She has decent claims on Barron's form here alone and is worth a small stakes bet in the hope that he continues his impressive record at this course, if the money comes it'll be even more significant as we all know Barron loves a gamble and this one looks primed and ready for one soon.

4:00 Southwell - Charles Parnell - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (WillHill)

3 times C&D winner who has been running reasonably of late including when winning on penultimate start Ayr when beating Dubai Hills easily by 2 lengths. My selection also missed the break that day so he possibly had a lot more in hand that the 2l win suggests. Charles Parnell is still 3lbs higher than his last C&D win but he did win off 11lb higher at the back end of '08 and may be well in. He has also been runner up to Poet's Place at this course when the future Portland winner beat him by 4 lengths, he's now rated in the hundreds and my selection is 1lb lower than that run now. I don't rate his jockey today at all but he has a good record on him and has won twice on him, including that race at Ayr. There's likely to be a fast gallop here and my selection thrives on the back of excessive speed so hopefully he'll get that here. He's also drawn in stall 11 which shouldn't prove too much of a hindrance as it's close to the quickest piece of ground at Southwell. All in all he has solid claims in a decent looking race and I'm expecting him to place at least, small each way stakes at a price which is double what he should be.

x PyRo

I mightn't be online in time to update prices but I'll have the morning prices taken.

x PyRo

Christ of almighty, that's why I don't back horses in maidens usually and I'll never do it again unless there's massive claims. Miss Cosette was the biggest case of a non trier I've seen in a while, pushed along early doors and jogged the last 2 furlongs. Being saved for another day it seems.

All on Charles now.

argosy2006

Dam, bad runs end with a huge win, only matter of time

x PyRo

Bank - 352.16pts (+252.16pts)

Couldn't pick my nose at the moment, very close to taking a significant break from the horses but I'll plug on for the time being, the iron is truly heated up at this stage and due to strike red hot.

2:50 Southwell - La Capriosa - 2pts @ 8/1 (VC)

5 time course winner and 3 time C&D winner who has never won off a mark this high but now makes his first run for the Dandy Nicholls yard, which I find quite interesting. La Capriosa ran here just under a week ago but she only finished a length away in 5th place despite trying to make all and getting headed halfway through the race, something that certainly wouldn't be in her favour given her style of running, she plugged on very gamely in what was a tougher contest than this one and a replication of that run should see her go very close on her debut for Dandy. She's only 8/1 due to the fact that Colorus finished ahead of her last time out but I think my selection has much more in her favour on these terms with Tom Queally taking the ride and Nicholls hopefully tuning her up for this. There's a 1lb swing here in the favour of Colorus but he's almost half the price of my selection and I can't see very much justification in that especially given the very interesting jockey booking.

La Capriosa is 2lbs above her last winning mark of 70, which was only 2 weeks ago on the turf where she kept on gamely to score by a neck in a class 5 handicap on soft ground, she comes here in flying form and has been dropped 3lbs from her run here 6 days ago, that should certainly help and her draw in stall 9 may not be too bad, despite not being ideal it may force her to track the leaders, a tactic that has paid dividends in the past and I love seeing Queally on horses who play 'follow the leader', it's his most effective riding position in my opinion and once he can get a horse to the front I find that he's very tough to pass. He has only ridden for Nicholls on 2 occasions, once in '04 and then again in '09, he won aboard the latter when scoring quite easily. I'm hoping they're out to do a similar job here and although Dandy has another runner in the race, the jockey bookings suggest to me that La Capriosa is the first string, yet the two are quite similarly priced. Another thing that leads me to believe she should run well is that most of the pace isn't too far away from her, there is a lot of front runners in the race but the lowest drawn potential pace setter is in stall 7, thus making a stall 9 berth quite attractive and she may even get the chance to set the pace, although I'm hoping for slightly reserved tactics as the way she plugged on last time out suggests she may benefit from hitting the front quite a lot later than she's used of. She's exposed having had 53 career runs but she's still only 4 years old and the switch of scenery could bring out even more improvement as Mr. Nicholls is a highly talented trainer and can extract even more of this filly's likely potential, whilst her previous trainers may have taken her as far as they can. I think she has a lot going for her and if she's out to try and win first time then she has to have massive claims, her strike rate is impressive on the AW and the race should be run to suit. Nicholls does well here and 8 of his last 30 charges at Southwell have won, hopefully he'll be adding another one here today and hopefully it's the one I've picked, it'd be a kick in the teeth if Sands Of Dee won. 8/1 looks mightily generous for my selection and I had her down as a fair 9/2 shot, just holding favouritism, small stakes on this one in the anticipation that she can end my baron spell of constant losers!

x PyRo

2:00 Ludlow - Midnight Haze - 2pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Lightly raced 8 year old gelding who has improved tenfold since switching to the larger obstacles, he finished out his '09 campaign with a win and a second place in November, the race he won was off a mark of 99 in which he scooted home, winning by a massively eased down 14 lengths despite jumping right for the majority of the contest. He was then raised 7lbs in the handicap and dropped back a further 2f in trip, he ended up a 10l second to a very good type who is now rated 132, Midnight Haze possibly wasn't suited by the step back in trip (possibly turned out too soon also) and proved a lot more effective when upped a further 7 furlongs to 3m 2f when making his reappearance in February of this year, he won off a mark of 115 when beating Dune Raider by a neck. It could of been a lot more comfortable but he got quite tired over that trip and tackles 2 furlongs less today at a track he has experienced before when running well over hurdles to come 2nd. He's much better over fences and usually jumps extremely well despite his tendencies to jump right handed from time to time, he also has a grand record when fresh so the 9 month break may not be too much of a hindrance to him and the Kim Bailey yard is in fine knick having had 10 winners from their last 50 runners. They also have a decent record at Ludlow when sending their animals over fences, they've a 17% strike rate and when Jason Maguire rides here for Kim they have 1 win and 1 second from 3 horses saddled. They've an 18% strike rate when teaming up over fences in general and clearly form a very good partnership, this is Kim's only horse out today and one they'll be expecting to improve throughout the season.

Midnight Haze likes to make the running and although he faces stiff opposition for the lead here I think he has conditions to suit and can continue his progression, he has only had 10 career runs with 5 of those coming over fences, he's still unexposed and open to a lot more improvement which leads me to believe that a mark of 120 should not be beyond him if he's tuned up first time out. He likes Good ground although he's effective on all surfaces but the ground today is perfect for him and I'm hoping he will have the rest of the field under pressure early on as he tends to set a fairly good gallop and usually gets the field on the stretch and under pressure from the off. Should his jumping hold up as it so often does then I think he may prove very hard caught and now is reunited with Jason Maguire, the same jockey who was on board for his most impressive win to date when making all to win that 2 and a half mile contest at Kempton when heavily eased. He hasn't the most impressive records at Ludlow but he's a jockey that I rate highly and he has won once from 2 rides at the course this year. He's quite strong in a finish and always one to be positive about over these 3m+ trips, hopefully it's lucky ride number 7 for Jason aboard this progressive chaser. It's a tough race by all means but many of these horses are either badly handicapped or in need of the run and any weaknesses should be punished by the recently consistent Kim Bailey charge, all of this will depend on him getting the lead and hopefully the rest back off but he has run well with more reserved tactics before so I wouldn't be surprised to see a change in plan here but I'm hoping that does not happen. He's currently a best priced 9/2 and that looks mightily generous to me, he's an 11/4 shot in my book and I don't think the 9/2 will be around for too long come tomorrow. Prophete De Guye is my idea of the danger, he's a previous selection of mine and comes here in fine knick but he may be slightly on the high side in the handicap and looks too short at 3/1, all of his wins have come when going left handed also and I think he could struggle with the likely pace, even over this trip. His jumping seems to go slightly wrong when under pressure and he may find himself struggling early on if things go as predicted, I'm opposing him with the horse I consider much better handicapped and the most likely value. Only small stakes once again but he has very good claims if carrying on from his form when last seen, freshness shouldn't be a problem, though.

uggkelly

they have harrowed deep due to the weather so picking prominant stayers over a slightly longer distance than any given race could be wise.

x PyRo

Cheers Ugg, good to know. Just hoping the ground stays bordering on good, it should suit my one perfectly but rain is forecast.

5:50 Wolverhampton - Breathless Kiss - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

Decent 3 year old from the Kevin Ryan stable, she produced a career best run last time out when staying on strongly in a decent contest last time out to come 2nd of 11 after being sent off 33/1, her blindfold was removed slightly late and she missed the kick but showed a lot of ability to run on into second, she also ran around under pressure and if getting things right today then she could prove hard to beat. She has never finished out of the places on the all weather from 5 runs, which includes 1 victory when landing a handicap at Kempton off 3lbs lower, she made all that day in a 5 runner race but has used reserved tactic since, usually coming from the rear. Those tactics will be tough to pull off here at a track favouring front runners but if she's kept close enough she may have a good chance of winning. She raced here over 6f before, the race got away from her that day as she tried to run on late but the short run in beat her and she eventually finished a half length 3rd, although Jamie 'My Way' Spencer was on board, so we'll just blame him!

Breathless Kiss comes here relatively fresh having not run for over 2 months, she's also wearing cheekpieces for the first time instead of the visor and blinkers that she has worn in the past, should they have the desired effect then we could see even more improvement from a horse that is very well handicapped and relishes conditions. She's effective with any type of race and there doesn't seem to be an excessive amount of pace here although there's a few prominent races in the ranks. Her draw in stall 11 isn't ideal for a horse who needs to be near the front but it should have little if any effect on her chances and I think she should get a nice sit at the back in the anticipation of a run late on. Phillip Makin takes the ride for the first time, which I find interesting. He rides the course very well and has a 13% strike rate, that jumps up to 23% when riding for Kevin Ryan on the AW and 24% when riding at Wolverhampton for Ryan, very impressive stats. Makin is a very good jockey in my opinion, he keeps the horses interested and he'll certainly need to do that with this filly as she likes to take her eye off the ball when the chips are down, I'm hoping he gets her settled in behind and doesn't leave it too late to run on. 7/2 is a price I normally wouldn't get involved with but if she turns up here she should take a hell of a lot of beating on these terms, she's well handicapped, has a good jockey on board and has conditions to suit. She's 7/4 clear favourite in my book and I wouldn't be surprised if she ended up around that price come race time, she would certainly justify that price tag in my opinion and I'm expecting a big run, although slightly worried about Ryan's tendencies to hold his horses back for gambles but I'd say he wants to get this filly over the line in front for confidence reasons as much as anything. He only sends this one here today which is also a positive, when he sends one to certain tracks they usually run very well and I'm hoping that's the case once again. Medium stakes at a price I consider around two times too big.

mickey1979

nice shout

I knew your run had to come to an end soon enough

Johner

Nice one Pyro. Got well backed and did it nicely.

x PyRo

YEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

Thanks lads, 2/2.

slookie

You Legend!!

gnolan

the iron is truly heated up at this stage and due to strike red hot

Nice call. Two in a row!

x PyRo

Thanks lads, that was some relief! The iron has truly struck hot. :pac:

mickey1979

great stuff

iggy

Bollox I missed these:(

Moffo

Well done Pyro...back in the winners enclosure

storykid

sound man pyro! was online earlier and threw a tenner on La Capriosa, great shout!

Crowie13

Good to see u back picking winners Pyro, wasn't on the first but had the second and will have to throw a few quid on the last one now. Let the winning streak continue