PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Cheers everyone, I'm thrilled to give a winner now and again! :pac:

The other one is on a mighty drift now, the writing could be on the wall but who knows.

gnolan

Jaysus. Breathless Kiss out to 11.0 on BF and still moving

x PyRo

What a price, can't understand it to be honest. Someone must know something, quite worried Ryan will just hold her back for another day, he's prone to that.

My book priced her at 7/4, she's nearly 6 times that on the exchange. That, folks, is how to get a market completely wrong. :pac:

x PyRo

She didn't even try.

+22pts today.

Bank - 374.16pts (+274.16pts)

Relief.

D1976

Good stuff today Pyro :D

mickey1979

finished last ever get the feeling all is not what it seems here pyro think form was not a factor here:cool:

Mr E

Nice job dude..... the 5:50 screwed up my patent, but I'm still ahead for the day. Well done!

mannheim.rebel

Nice one Pyro man. good to see you back in the game

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments men, all was certainly not well with that last one, she was intentionally pulled in my opinion. Keep an eye out on her.

More to come later, off to a game of cards now.

1:15 Cheltenham - Knowhere - 1pt @ 9/1 (Bet365)

Highly talented 12 year old who on his day would be massively well in here, he doesn't have too many good performances nowadays but he still retains enough ability to go close here if coping with a 5 month lay off. He has a great record when fresh and is a previous 2 time Grade 2 winner, including once at this course in similar conditions to that which he faces now. His highest career win came off a mark of 154 and he runs here off 137, his lowest career mark and well below marks that he has run well off before. He's from the Nigel Twiston-Davies yard who are brilliant at getting a horse ready and they won this race last year with Razor Royale, he scored so easily when winning by 23 lengths. Hopefully they're planning to take this again with a horse who clearly goes well around here and has even contested two Cheltenham Gold Cups. There's a fair chance that we'll get a relatively slowly run race and that should help as this fellow has tendencies to throw in the odd poor jump but with less emphasis on him to jump under pressure we may see him in a better light, he also has a very good amateur jockey on board as Derek O'Connor takes the ride, he's a highly competent jockey and he has a fine 16% strike rate over fences. O'Connor has ridden on 16 occasions over the fences of Cheltenham, he's yet to taste victory but has placed on 7 occasions, hopefully he'll get his slice of luck this year and take the amateur contest here on his only ride of the day.

Twiston-Davies' yard are in good order and have done well here in recent seasons, they're sure to have Knowhere tuned up and ready to put up a bold bid here after a few months rest, as previously said, his record fresh has been brilliant over the years and he's very well in on these terms with conditions likely to suit. If he could get his jumping right just one more time then it'll be very very tough to see him beaten as that's the only thing that has stopped him from being the force of old and even improving beyond what he once was. He's 12 years old now but that doesn't tamper my enthusiasm, he's very good with some cut in the ground and with the weather as it stands, there is a fair chance it'll be Good-to-Soft or even Soft, either will suit perfectly and increase his chances tenfold. He showed enough last season to suggest there could still be one or two more wins in him yet and I believe this is an ideal chance to do so. It's a tough race by all means but he looks to have a very lively chance for a yard who have won this before, coupled with an interesting jockey booking and ground suiting him, all of this suggests to me that he should be a lot shorter than the current 9/1 on offer and the odds compliers are just basing that on his most recent run in which he lived to to his name and came nowhere. He's a 5/1 shot in my book, bordering on favourite and I'm expecting a big run, small stakes due to the type of race but he stands a lively chance and is by far and away the best horse in the race, I'm just afraid of something progressing past his current abilities but he could still have enough.

argosy2006

argosy2006 wrote: »

Dam, bad runs end with a huge win, only matter of time

:rolleyes:

x PyRo

1:50 Cheltenham - Ballyadam Brook - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

It's hard to oppose the odds-on Cue Card but if any of the opposition here are going to topple him it will most likely be this fellow, he's a game front runner who notched up 4 straight wins before coming 2nd in a Grade 3 contest at Tipperary, he found one too good that day but a couple of sloppy jumps possibly cost him a 5th consecutive victory. There's a fair chance he won't get a handy lead here, possibly won't get to the front at all but he has been equally effective when tracking the leaders and taking it up late, hopefully those tactics could prove dividends here and if he gets his jumping spot on then I think he could be a tough one to pass with conditions likely to suit and the tough Cheltenham track being exactly to his liking. Paul Townend takes the ride here, his only one of the day. He's a top class young jockey and has been on board Ballyadam Brook on 6 occasions, culminating in 4 wins and 2 second places, he clearly gets on well with the horse and knows how to get the best out of him, if he can give him a canny ride and keep his mind on getting the jumping right then I can't see him finishing out of the top 3 at least but I'm hoping he can progress even more to gain victory.

Ballyadam Brook is still lightly raced for a 6 year old, he has only had 9 career starts having made his debut in March of this year, he has had a very hectic campaign but comes here fit, ready and in good form. He could well progress significantly enough to beat the odds-on favourite if Cue Card doesn't come on for his debut hurdle win, which was in a very weak race, although he scored very impressively, there's still too many questions to be answered and I'd much rather oppose him and support him, especially on these terms. He's trained by Terence O'Brien, he has never had a runner at Cheltenham before and only sends this fellow here today, it's a wonderful chance for a yard that doesn't have too many runners to take a massive scalp by landing a Grade 2 contest with his first runner. O'Brien clearly rate this horse very highly and he has got a lot out of him already, there's still more to come and I think Terence is a very good trainer who could get that little bit extra out of this fellow. There are many more dangers bar the favourite but I think that O'Brien's Irish raider is the best opposition to Tizzard's exciting 4 year old hurdler and should place at the very least. 10/1 looks a huge price to me and he was a 5/1 shot in my book, small each way stakes in the hope that he pulls off a shock, he has the ability to do so, in my opinion.

x PyRo

2:25 Cheltenham - Star of Germany - 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes)

Possibly a bit of a crazy bet here but this fellow is on a very handy mark having been dropped a total of 12lbs for 3 poor runs for a new yard, he moved from the David Pipe yard to Ian Williams and showed little if any of his old ability when running in 2 Listed level events and one similar classed handicap to this one. I am more of the belief that he was running at a trip that stretched his stamina too far and he's now dropped back to this 2 mile trip having run over 2 and a half miles or further since joining Williams. He has won over 2 and a half before but he's most effective at 2 mile, in my opinion. The only worry I have is his ability to handle ground with some give in it, he has never won on anything worse that Good and he should be getting Good-to-Soft here, at best. He has run twice at Cheltenham in his 42 race long career but never won, the track should suit him as all of his wins have come going left handed and the tough nature of Cheltenham should be to his liking.

Star of Germany is now 6lbs below his last winning mark, in which he won easily at a higher grade than this when tracking the leaders and running on strongly to score by 5 lengths in a 15 runner race, he seemed well ahead of his mark on that day and anything near that form should see him go close here. I wouldn't be surprised if Williams was keeping him for another day as he's prone to the odd gamble and now after having had 3 runs he may be out to try and do the business, if so the 33/1 price tag will look a bit stupid come after the race but if not, I will! Tom Scudamore takes the ride, that looks a very positive jockey booking and he knows this horse inside out having been on board for 5 of his 7 career wins, he knows how to get this fellow ticking over well and will hopefully help rejuvenate him with his presence and riding talents. Scudamore doesn't ride for Williams too often but they strike up an impressive 16% strike rate, although that's only from 19 rides. There's enough positives to make me believe that the 33/1 price tag is extremely excessive, he's a 14/1 shot in my book but this is a very tough race and the slow ground doesn't exude confidence, for that reason alone I'll only play minimal each way stakes but he is handicapped to win this if old form is taken seriously, I think he has a decent chance of running into a place if things fall his way, hopefully they do.

JONJO THE MISER

Never backed your tips yesterday:mad:, meant to back them but went to the pub early and forgot about them.

x PyRo

3:35 Cheltenham - Pro Pell - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

I quite fancy this Gary Moore trained 5 year old to have a good chance here, he's lightly raced having only had 7 career runs, with 5 of those being over hurdles. He is open to a lot of improvement and after 3 non productive spins over hurdles he finally got his act together when upped from 2 miles to 2 and a half miles, he scored by 5 lengths that day but it was not as easy as the result suggests, he looked in big bother 3 out, hit 230.0 in running but battled on gamely to win the race. I still think there's a lot more to come from this rookie and he could still prove well handicapped off a mark of 112 now trying softer ground over an ideal distance for the first time. Joshua Moore takes the ride here and is great value for his 6lb claim, he's a very competent jockey and leaves Pro Pell having to carry 10st 9lbs, which will be bottom weight in this handicap, that's a massive plus here for a horse who clearly has ability and the only two things I can question is his suitability to the slow ground and his jumping after he unseated his rider last time out, that was a silly blunder 2 out and had he stayed on his feet he'd of went very close in what was a tougher race than this.

That race was here at Cheltenham and over this distance, he seemed to be going quite well around this undulating and testing track but he is ideally suited to this set up and both of his wins have come going left handed on tricky tracks. Pro Pell should certainly come on for that run and hopefully won't make the same mistake twice, his jumping under pressure in his previous race seemed very good indeed and with a likely strong gallop we could see the best of him. On his penultimate start (in which he won) he showed a very impressive turn of foot for a whole who is a 2 and a half mile racer, it was quite surprising as he seemed to be losing touch with the leaders if anything but his attitude can't be questioned and I'd make the assumption that Gary Moore has him primed and ready to go well here. His run over C&D was just 1 month ago, previous to that he wasn't out since May and could well of been in need of the run but he seemed to be going so well before that mistake cost him all chance, he'll definitely strip fitter for that run and will hopefully come on for the experience and avoid any lazy jumps in future. The key here will be getting him settled in behind the leaders, not too far away but covered up sufficiently to switch him of and produce him late, if they do that then he could well have the beating of the favourite and hopefully the field. Nicky Henderson's charge, Aegean Dawn, is the clear favourite but there's too many questions about him for me to get involved at 11/4. He hasn't been seen for nearly a year and that last run wasn't too impressive in my opinion, certainly not one to warrant this price and it's fully based on his stable having won the last 2 renewals of this race, still not enough reason to justify that price. I'll side with Gary Moore's 5 year old to prove he's beyond this mark and play small each way stakes on him at a 12/1 price that's much too big. He's an 11/2 shot in my book and should push the favourite all the way assuming the softer ground isn't of any detriment to him, he strikes me as one who would appreciate some cut but I have been wrong about these types before, hopefully not today.

x PyRo

My last selection, 5 out of the 6 Cheltenham races covered. I think Gardechampetre should destroy the field in the one I haven't covered but I'm not getting involved at even money, tis no fun!

4:05 Cheltenham - Quantitativeeasing - 2pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

Quite interested in this one on his Chasing bow, always struck me as one who'd do bigger over the larger obstacles and now he gets his chance. He re-opposes Reve De Sivola here, that one was a mammoth 37l ahead of the Nicky Henderson trained 5 year old when they both faced off last time out at Punchestown in the Grade 1 Champion Novice Hurdle. My selection was going well until making a mistake 3 out, he made good headway from the rear before messing it all up but I think they would of finished a lot closer together had he not made that blunder. I also feel that Quantitativeeasing could make the better chaser of the two, he has only had 6 career runs to date, winning his first 3 and then was found out at a higher level over hurdles. He comes here having not run since that Grade 1 contest but he has won after a similar break in the past and I've no doubt that Henderson will have him fit and ready to make a gallant effort to secure a first time chasing win here at a track that he does well when running his horses over the larger obstacles, he has a 14% strike rate at this course and a 38% strike rate when McCoy takes control over fences for him, impressive stats to say the least.

McCoy has been on board this fellow on 5 of his 6 starts, including guiding him to decent victories on 2 occasions. He rides Cheltenham reasonably well as shown by his 20% strike rate when going chasing here, he's a top notch jockey and a massive plus to the majority of horses, although not a plus to horses who don't like getting smacked! Regardless of that, there's certainly no better man to have on board for a horses chasing debut and if he can get Quantitativeeasing to cut out those little jumping mistakes then he should stand a solid chance of overturning that hurdle form with the Nick Williams trained 5 year old. The only other one that stands a very big chance is Time For Rupert but he's currently around the 5/2 mark, which is too short for me and the horse has previously needed the run after being off for over 6 months. He holds the best form having chased home Big Buck's over hurdles in the World Hurdle but it's too risky to back him at those prices given how he handled time off before, I would of went for him if he was a bigger price but not now, he should make a mighty fine chaser though. I'm going to stick with the Henderson charge to gain victory here, he's a nice looking animal with so much scope for improvement and may just find things in his favour here, he likes cut in the ground and should be much better suited to his return to a left handed track, he also wasn't disgraced by any means when coming 5th of 28 in the Coral Cup at this track back in March, he finished 8 lengths behind but ran very free and made his trademark mistake at the last when already beaten. At least we know he'll handle the track and now it's all over to the jumping, if he gets that right I find it hard to believe that he won't be on the premises here but if he gets it wrong then he won't have a chance against the calibre of opposition he faces here. 6/1 looks generous to me, he was a 4/1 shot in my book and small stakes are the order of the day, I expect a good run and hopefully McCoy will do me a good turn once again.

D1976

Good to see you back on form and thumbs up for the write ups.

Johner

Brilliant stuff yesterday Pyro!

Have to agree on Ballyadam Brook, by far the best form on offer over hurdles and is way overpriced at 10s.

Crash Bang Wall

Knowhere was placed 3rd....had him for a place on betfair, cheers man

Johner

My god what a horse Cue Card is going to be, that was an unreal performance.

x PyRo

God damnit, that was an anti-climax but with no excessively strong fancies it was on the cards.

-8pts for the day.

Bank - 366.16pts (+266.16pts)

Two early bets in the big one for tomorrow, reasoning to follow, one has already shifted in a notch on the market.

(Paddy Power Gold Cup - 2:35 Cheltenham)

Mad Max - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (PaddyPower) - 5 places
Dancing Tornado - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Betfred) - 4 places

There has been some support for Dancing Tornado in the last while, interesting.

Reasoning later on.

iggy

I backed Knowhwere to be placed so made a few quid on that cheers. I put it all on Dortmond to win tonight.

x PyRo

Pity I didn't do the same Iggy, backed it straight for the win. Non runner cost Ballyadam Brook a place too, that's annoying!

The others were awful. I was so tempted to go in with a lot more cash on Pro Pell, he came second last I think, that's the only reason I'm not overly disappointed with today as I was so close to lumping on.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

God damnit, that was an anti-climax but with no excessively strong fancies it was on the cards.

-8pts for the day.

Bank - 366.16pts (+266.16pts)

Two early bets in the big one for tomorrow, reasoning to follow, one has already shifted in a notch on the market.

(Paddy Power Gold Cup - 2:35 Cheltenham)

Mad Max - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (PaddyPower) - 5 places
Dancing Tornado - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Betfred) - 4 places

There has been some support for Dancing Tornado in the last while, interesting.

Reasoning later on.

Ha! We're on the same wavelength (today at least). Just saw your selections on letsbet. Same stakes too, hope thats a good omen!

Crash Bang Wall

Dancing Tornado 8.6 to be placed now on betfair

x PyRo

12:50 Cheltenham - Plan A - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (PaddyPower)

Decent type on the flat and a previous selection of mine when he scored at Brighton over 10 furlongs at a nice price after being well backed, he won 2 of his final 3 starts on the flat, coming second in the other. He's clearly on the upgrade and shaped well on his hurdling bow when going down by a neck to even money favourite, Jubail, in a 2m contest at Kempton. My selection ran well and jumped well on his opening race over jumps, he lost out due to the winners speed being much superior, Plan A should be much better in a stamina testing race, which he will get here I hope. That run at Kempton was on relatively quick ground and most of his good runs on the flat came with cut in the ground, he'll get that today and I'm very interested in how much more that could bring out of him. Another question is how he'll handle the track, judging by his flat form it shouldn't be a bother, his 2 career wins came at Brighton and Pontefract, both tough and testing courses. They are also both left handed, like Cheltenham, that's the only 2 times he has raced going left handed and both ended in victory, hopefully he can make it 3 in a row with victory here.

Plan A is clearly going the right way, he should strip much better for that opening spin over hurdles and I expect to see him progress into a nice type. His trainer, Mick Quinlan, wouldn't be sending him here at such an early stage if he didn't believe he stood a solid chance of running a good race. He has saddled 1 hurdler at this course but that fellow raced 4 times here, winning once. He doesn't traditionally have many hurdlers, never mind many juvenile hurdlers. When running his 3 year olds over the smaller obstacles Mick has an impressive 22% strike rate and has never saw fit to run any of them here at Cheltenham, so I find it interesting that Plan A is stepped up to a Grade 2 contest after debuting in a Class 3 juvenile race. There seems to be an excessive amount of pace here with so many front runners lining out, that should suit my selection to perfection as the race should end up as a stamina test rather than a test of speed because of that. If you also couple that with the Good-to-Soft ground here then he should have everything going for him, he will have to progress a fair bit to win this, possibly 10lbs at least from his recent run, maybe even more. He certainly has enough scope to do that and he has a very good try hard attitude to match, that alone may not be good enough to win here but I certainly think he's not without a chance if putting his best foot forward in this company, it's a very tough race and a huge step up in class but he could cause a shock. I wouldn't be the biggest fan of his jockey for the day but he's capable when at his best but his stats at Cheltenham are very poor, regardless of that I'll take a chance. He is a best priced 16/1 shot and as low as 12's in places, he was a 7/1 shot in my book and looks very good each way value at his current price. I'll be using small each way stakes in the hope that he runs a very good race to win and I'm hoping he'll run into a place at the very least. The Henderson horse, Titan De Sarti, is well supported having moved from 5/2 overnight into 13/8 in places and there's a lot of good word around for him but I can't have that price about something that has never jumped a hurdle in competitive action, he obviously stands a solid chance given his powerful stable but I'd rather be a layer than a backer in this situation. I'm sticking with the Quinlan trained juvenile to show even more here and claim a top notch scalp on his second hurdle start, Architrave and co may set a good enough gallop to ensure he'll be staying on as good as anything inside the final half mile and with his stamina abilities and solid jumping I'm expecting a good run from Plan A, hopefully it pans out that way.

Crash Bang Wall

Pyro....just wondering if you reckon The Sawyer is worth a small e/w punt tomorrow, cheers

x PyRo

I'll get back to you if I've time dude, he didn't figure too much in my calculations though, I just need to go over the race again once I've all the others written up etc.

1:20 Cheltenham - Bertie's Dream - 3pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

One of my higher confidence selections for today, he's a horse of lots of ability and we should see him in a much better light after he had a prep run for this when coming 4th of 15 in a beginners chase at Galway just under 3 weeks ago. He has proved he needs a run before and he looked badly in need of it having looked the likely winner before entering the straight, he was very one paced and looked like he was out for the jog more than anything. He now returns to the scene of his greatest success to date when running out a ready winner of the 3 mile Albert Bartlett, which was over hurdles. That was only his second spin over the 3 mile trip and he tackles it again here with conditions likely to be ideal, the opposition weren't as good as him over hurdles and only the favourite, Wayward Prince, would of stood a good chance of putting him to the sword, though I reckon he'd have a mighty tough job and has an even tougher job here on these terms. All of the Irish Raider's wins have come with some cut in the ground so the likely Good-to-Soft ground is perfect and he's tactically versatile so whatever way the race is run should suit his style, he can be ridden to lead or run just off the pace and with plenty of front runners in the race it may just pay dividends to do the latter but I think he's as effective either way.

Bertie's Dream should make a might good chaser and he has an ideal chance here getting weight from his main opposition, Wayward Price and the Gordon Elliot trained Chicago Grey. My selection gets 5lbs from the former and 8lbs from the latter, he's already well in here in terms of opposition, in my opinion, and this only strengthens his case much further. He has it all going for him here, he loved the track when last coming here to score by 6 lengths in a Grade 1 hurdle contest (sort of ran around in front though, could be more to come), he should get the race run to suit, he loves this ground and he seems to be extremely well in at the weights. I can see a huge run from the Paul Gilligan trained 7 year old, Gilligan wouldn't bring him over here if he wasn't without a good chance and he seemed relatively positive when questioned about the horse, although he didn't want to give too much away. There has already been some support for him, with bookies originally pricing him up as a 7/1 shot and he's now trading at 5/1, I took 11/2 but he moved in price mid write up. He's battling for favouritism in my book and hovering around the 3/1 mark, I wouldn't be surprised to see him end up around that price and I think it'd fully justify his chances. He's piloted by Andrew Lynch, a jockey I rate very highly and one who gets on very well with the horse having been on board for 3 of his 4 career wins, including the victory here during the festival. Lynch is 3 from 21 with a further 4 places when riding at Cheltenham, giving him a 14% strike rate which is good given the quality of races he's riding in. Medium sized stakes for this fellow as I think he justifies it big time, he should make a very good chaser and he's entered in a Grade 1 chase at Fairyhouse in 2 weeks, if he's expected to be competitive there then he should be winning this, here's hoping.

Crash Bang Wall

No worries, just a hunch more than anything, but a hunch gave me a 22/1 winner at Wolverhampton earlier:)

Best of luck tomorrow man

x PyRo

Thanks mate, you too if you back anything.

Sometimes you can't beat the hunches dude, so many times I've went with my head instead of my gut feeling and ended up being beaten by the one I didn't back. So bloody annoying! Back him regardless of what I say anyways. :pac: I will get onto it later on, just trying to solve all of the other ones first, tis a disaster because it takes much longer than usual!

Crash Bang Wall

Stuck a few quid on it to be placed on betfair, more so because I will be raging if it does something. I wont be making my fortune on the horse racing thats 4 sure