PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

1:55 Cheltenham - Midnight Chase - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Massively progressive 8 year old who was a decent hurdler and has improved tenfold for the switch to chasing, although he took his time to get used of it he is now seeking a 5th win in 6 runs having dotted up by 10 lengths last time out in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 9lbs lower than the 146 that he runs off today. He's clearly going the right way and I think he can continue his progression even further by proving he's still way ahead of the handicapper despite rising 21lbs since his opening chase win. His win by an eased down 10 lengths at this course last time out was highly impressive, both visually and in terms of how the form has worked out. Lacdoudal was the second placed horse and he won the cross-country race here last time out, although he didn't face my selection on what I'd consider to be his best terms but the form has to be respected regardless and he's a good benchmark. That was Midnight Chase's first run for 5 months and he could well come on even better for having it, it came 4 weeks ago so he should be relatively fresh but definitely should be in tip-top condition to gain another scalp here, now stepped up to Grade 3 level.

Midnight Chase is one tough cookie to crack once he gets a lead, he made most of the running last time out until being joined at the 8th fence, he was then headed after number 13 but joined the leader again 3 out before taking full control before 2 out and readily asserted with relative ease, it was a pure class performance that many horses would fail to do and it leads me to believe he could be significantly ahead of the handicapper despite being one you'd consider slightly exposed having had 9 runs over the larger obstacles and 18 career runs in total. He has a very game attitude and loves the testing nature of the Cheltenham track, he has never run a bad race at this course and I'm hoping he'll continue that trend by gaining his third victory here. His form at Cheltenham reads : 2-3-1-1, highly impressive form altogether and should continue here if he gets to run his race. There are plenty of opposition for the lead here but he has won when not getting the lead before and could do so again, although I'm hoping he will get a handy lead as he gets the opposition on the stretch fairly readily and he has a wonderful turn of foot when it's required, over this 3m 3f trip it's very helpful to have that. He loves the hill here and always finishes very well when he encounters it, that advantage should be a massive plus against many horse who I believe don't have the same ability as he does. He's stepped up to this 3m 3f trip for the first time, 2 furlongs more than he has ever raced before and I think it could see him in an even better light, which could be scary! He has wonderful stamina coupled with a top-notch attitude and the speed when it counts for longer distances, I'm quite sure he'll stay the trip and the only thing that worries me is the ease in the ground. He has won with cut in the ground on numerous occasions but only once over fences and he wasn't too impressive that day, although he has improved a lot since and may find conditions ideal but it scares me slightly, still worth taking a chance regardless of the ground. Midnight Chase is partnered by Dougie Costello once again, they seem to get on very well having paired up to be victorious on 4 occasions from 6 runs with 1 second place. Costello is 2 from 2 when riding for Mulholland at Cheltenham and they've a 24% strike rate over fences when teaming up, positive stats to say the least. I'm just going to play small stakes here yet again as it's a tough race but he has huge claims and should go well at a price that looks too big, he's a fair 4/1 shot in my book and should go well once again.

x PyRo

Now for the big one, getting sleepy now, bad sign!

2:35 Cheltenham - Max Max - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

Has a massive chance here in my opinion, he'd be my absolute bet of the season if his stablemate, Long Run, wasn't racing in this contest. My selection probably holds the best form of the race having gained victory in the Grade 2 Manifesto Novices' Chase at Aintree when he destroyed Somersby by 9 lengths on similar ground to what he faces here today. He's still lightly raced having only had 4 starts (won 2) over fences and despite being an 8 year old he may have a great deal more to give, he has only run 9 times in his relatively short career. He's an absolute giant of a horse who has to be one of the biggest in training, he has had his breathing problems but is apparently over them and we'll start to get to see the real machine within. Typically in this race 8 year olds haven't done too well in recent years but he has by no means reached his peak over fences and is open to as much improvement as anything else in this field, in my opinion. The Grade 2 success was his first time running at 2m 4f over fences, he relished the step up in trip and goes over an extended 2 and a half miles today, a trip that should be his optimum and over a course that should suit him ideally. He ran here over fences previously when coming a relatively close up 5th in the Arkle this year, which is run over 2m. That was on quick ground too and he's much more suited to softer ground given his size and action, he was so unlucky not to win or come close after having made most until the 2nd last fence, into which he was produced perfectly but made a novice mistake and absolutely clobbered the fence and was extremely lucky to stay standing. Had he avoided making that mistake I'm quite sure he would of won as he only finished 5 lengths down in the end when coming behind Sizing Europe who finally came good that day. The Henderson trained star was somehow sent off 25/1 that day but he was 13lbs 'wrong' at the weights with the eventual winner and probably would of pushed him very close without making the mistake. The trip wasn't ideal that day, nor was the ground, yet he produced a brilliant performance even in defeat, he jumped cleanly throughout and looked a real smart prospect and the likely winner but didn't get that bit of luck when he needed it. He was out on his feet after than fence but still stayed on well up the run in and if he avoids making any errors today he stands an absolutely huge chance with much more in his favour today.

Mad Max wouldn't be anywhere near this price if he wasn't in opposition to stable mate, Long Run, who is seen as the first choice Henderson horse. I can't really understand it as I believe on these terms, at this track, that my selection is the superior horse and actually has a jockey on board that has a lot of talent, in all fairness to Sam Waley-Cohen he is not the best of jockeys and even with his 5lb claim I believe he's more of a hindrance to his mount than a positive. Barry Geraghty rides Mad Max and they are 2 from 2 over fences, clearly forming a formidable partnership, including 2 wins from 3 runs over hurdles when paired together. Geraghty is in flying form in the past week having won aboard 5 of his last 10 rides, he's always one to follow around Cheltenham as he usually rides the course very well. His strike rate here is 16%, bumps up to 23% when riding for Henderson and he shows a healthy £70 profit to £1 level stakes here, very good stats. Henderson has won this race before and he's double handed this time, I reckon he'll take it again and it won't be the selection that most people are raving on about. I don't think Long Run will be suited to jumping at the speed he'll have to in this race, he's much more effective going right handed on flatter tracks and the undulating and testing nature of the Cheltenham track could catch him out once again as it did when he was last seen coming 3rd in the RSA Chase in March of this year. He could well go a lot better here this time around but at that price on these terms I'd much rather oppose him and it just happens that Mad Max looks the best bet to me here, especially with 5 places being paid. If he doesn't come in the top 5 I think I'll have to take a look at bets that I consider 'Bet of the year', because he's bordering on being one of them for me, he has so much going for him and despite a tough weight to carry, he has the best form and has more scope to improve beyond this level. His record fresh is also very impressive and he should handle the break without bother. 8/1 is massively generous to me, he's a 5/1 shot in my book which seems a lot fairer given his raw abilities and likely-hood to improve. Medium each way stakes at a very nice price.

I'm also backing Dancing Tornado - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Betfred)

Looked an absolutely huge price to me earlier, he has since come in to 33/1 (25's in places) and I think it'll get even shorter before the off. He's a very talented horse on his day and looks well weighted to perform well here. He's running off a mark of 142 with Adrian Heskin taking off another valuable 5lbs to leave him with a riding weight of 9st 13lbs, which should help. Heskin has been on board him 3 times with form reading : 1-3-2, all of those were over hurdles and it's interesting to see Heskin get the ride here at a track where he is 1 win from 1 ride having won at the festival this year. The horse had a good run over hurdles 2 weeks ago in which he came 2nd, just let down by some poor jumps but if he can correct that back over fences then he could run into a place with conditions currently ideal for him. Dancing Tornado is now 9 years old but relatively lightly raced over fences having only had 8 career starts, winning twice. He was sent off the 9/4 favourite for the Munster National in October over 3m at Limerick but failed to fire after jumping poorly and not staying the trip. Now back over 2 and a half miles should see him more competitive and with the lowest weight on his back combined with the likely quick gallop I can see him jumping a lot better than he has done in recent times. On his day he doesn't make too many mistakes and I've a good feeling that he could be on his day now, he comes here fit and ready to challenge and the support throughout the day seems quite interesting to me as he's owned by none other than JP McManus, the man himself! I've also heard a little squeak that he's fancied to go well and if he is then he could not have thing more to his liking. At 40's he was well worth a bet, he's still value at 33/1 as he's a 20/1 shot in my book with potential justification for being even shorter. Small each way stakes and a Mad Max win with this fellow coming second would be more than ideal, I live in hope!

x PyRo

3:10 Cheltenham - Our Bomber Harris - 3pts @ 8/1 (WillHill)

Lightly raced Paul Nicholls charge who has plenty of ability but hasn't been seen out too often. He has had 7 career starts, winning a bumper and then making plenty of mistakes along the road to a debut hurdles victory. He has since only been seen on 4 occasions and his last 2 runs have been decent efforts here in relatively good handicap company. He was beaten by the 150 rated, Bensalem, over 2m 6f here. His jumping let him down badly on that occasion despite being 13lbs wrong in the weights, it was a mighty good run with all things considered and he runs off 1lb lower here today against horses who aren't as good as the one who beat him. He then didn't reappear until April of this year, after almost a year off the track. He was sent off the 11/2 joint favourite for a Class 2 handicap over 2m 4f here, he ran well for a long time before weakening coming up to the final flight after making a big effort to get in contention, the lack of competitive action may have taken its toll and I think he's more of a stayer so the step up in trip seems a massive plus but yet an unknown at the same time.

Our Bomber Harris comes here having been off for just shy of 7 months, he has went well when fresh in the past and it's not an excessively long break to overcome and I believe he's in with a good shout along with being well weighted to go close. He's unexposed and open to so much improvement and a mark of 132 may certainly not be beyond his potential capabilities. He's partnered by Noel Fehily today for the first time, he's a man on a mission of late and has been in amazing for having won aboard 10 of his last 30 rides, producing some classy rides in there too. He's a jockey I rate quite highly and he shows good results when riding hurdlers at Cheltenham, he has a 10% strike rate and a profit of £65 to £1 level stakes, giving him a massive return on investment of 60%. He has only started picking up rides for Nicholls in recent times but they have produced wonderful results, they've a 46% strike rate together with 6 winners from 13 runners and a further 5 places, only 2 finished out of the top 3. Fehily, in his current mood, is a positive to any horse and he's excellent at getting them settled and travelling well, he'll have to be at his best to get this lad settled as he often takes a fierce hold in behind and that costs him from being even better but with so many front runners here I'm hoping we get a good gallop, that should give us the chance to see Our Bomber Harris perform to the best of his abilities. He certainly has a race like this in him and hopefully it's sooner rather than later, I'm very confident that Nicholls will have him ready and raring to go with conditions suiting wonderfully. He steps up to 3m 1f for the first time, he has only went 3m on one occasion when finishing 2nd to a decent enough type on similar ground to this. He didn't pick up as expected that day on very testing Heavy ground but we should see this GS ground much more to his liking and the emphasis on stamina could and should pull out that little bit of improvement needed to win this. He's a horse of great potential and I expect a big run from him, he is somehow deemed to be an 8/1 shot but I had him as the 9/2 favourite. I'd make the assumption that the price won't be along for too long as it seems very big to me, I'm going to play medium stakes on him here, it's a tough race but he has the scope and ability to do well.

x PyRo

Finally, last one. Been a hell of a long night. Going to wait up for the Morning Line, then go to sleep for 2 or 3 hours!

3:40 Cheltenham - Ballybriggan - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Impressive winner last time out when landing a 16 runner Maiden hurdle after over 6 months off the track, he won easily by over 3 lengths despite running very keen early on. The form of that race looks quite solid and the 2nd has since come out and won whilst the 3rd came 2nd next time out. Ballybriggan had more in the locker that day if it was needed and I thought he ran as if needing the run for a while, he should certainly come on a lot for having got his head in-front and for having the run under his belt. He has to carry top weight here but it's by no means beyond the realms of possibility that he will defy that and grab on of the 4 available places at least. He's running off a mark of 124 which could be understating his abilities a bit and I think he can progress a fair bit past that rating. He should find his optimum trip around this extended 2 mile trip and he looks built for the speedier contests, that of which he should get here. He also seems to have quite a good attitude as shown when digging deep to run on so well last time out, he clearly relished the comfort of a big field and with 19 runners here, he will certainly get a big field once again. All 3 of his career wins (1 DQ) have come when going left handed, he's possibly suited to flatter track but I'm going to take a chance here as he has run decently on testing tracks before but clearly comes here in much better form that when running those races.

Ballybriggan comes from a relatively inform yard who tend to do very well with their hurdlers, not so much when they visit Cheltenham, though. They're 0 from 16 when coming here but the yard comes here in good knick and with a horse who has got a fair chance on form and conditions. They also do well when Dougie Costello is on board and he knows this horse well having ridden to victory on 2 occasions and coming 3rd in the other, one of those victories ended in disqualification due to a banned substance being found in his system but he has since proved his ability in a much better race, drug free! Costello is riding extremely well of late and he's a plus on board this fellow, the weight might be tough for Ballybriggan but he has a very good jockey on his back to make up for that. He should get a race run to suit and the ground as it stands is bordering on perfect for him. He has come in from 14's to 12's overnight, I always like to see a little bit of support for the horses I shortlist then select and this is another positive despite it being a small shift in price, it's just a pity that I waited for a number of hours before backing him. 12's are still fair value in my book and he's a fair 7/1 shot as far as I'm concerned, I hope he grabs one of the four places at least and justifies medium each way stakes. He is the form pick for me and still open to a lot of improvement, I expect a decent run from him anyways.

Total Staked - 20pts

Could be an awful day.

x PyRo

Word count ended up as 4,500 words. :eek: 3 times the amount of required words for my end of year assignment at college last year. :pac: I've little to be at!

x PyRo

Ballybriggan has moved into 9's already. Powers and Will Hill still go 12's, won't be around long.

Some money coming for Plan A in places.

Could be an interesting day with regards to the markets.

thesandeman

Best of luck Pyro. I see my two favourite tipsters have gone for Tornado so thats confidance boosting.

UrbanSea

Pyro where are you getting that Wayward prince would have a hard time with Bertie's Dream giving it 5 pounds when it was rated 7 higher over hurdles?
Good luck today,love these big handicap chases. Didn't notice you were on Knowhere aswell yesterday,I had him each way,really thought he had a good shout of winning especially with one of the best jump jockeys in the world on him.

argosy2006

x PyRo wrote: »

Word count ended up as 4,500 words. :eek: 3 times the amount of required words for my end of year assignment at college last year. :pac: I've little to be at!

i dont even read it :pac: , i just back em :rolleyes:

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Word count ended up as 4,500 words. :eek: 3 times the amount of required words for my end of year assignment at college last year. :pac: I've little to be at!

I did that word count about two days ago on one of your writeups...I was astonished...didn't realise there was that many words that could be said about a horse in a race. You really cover every angle!

argosy2006 wrote: »

i dont even read it :pac: , i just back em :rolleyes:

You could learn something from other peoples opinions. Worth scanning at least

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

1:55 Cheltenham - Midnight Chase - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Fan of this horse. difficult call but plumbed for Razor Royale. Its clear why he strong in the market. GL

thesandeman

First one placed anyways. Good start.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

<snip>

1:20 Cheltenham - Bertie's Dream - 3pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

<snip>

I saw the 11/2 last night. You'l probably get a rule 4 will you? He's well treated and probably best he didn't win on seasonal debut. Thats two I've picked that you have too. *fingers crossed*

x PyRo

greetings wrote: »

Pyro where are you getting that Wayward prince would have a hard time with Bertie's Dream giving it 5 pounds when it was rated 7 higher over hurdles?

I always thought Bertie was the better hurdler, that's pretty much it. Not arsed about official ratings, I only use them when they make it sound good. :pac:

Nulty wrote: »

I did that word count about two days ago on one of your writeups...I was astonished...didn't realise there was that many words that could be said about a horse in a race. You really cover every angle!

I've little to be at dude. I'd say there's a lot more that could be said but it's tiring to process all these things and then put them into words. I enjoy it though, gives me something to do!

Pity we were on the wrong one there, I really fancied him to go very well but he was so flat footed when asked, quite surprised by that. Ah well, that's always a risk, could be worse.

Best of luck with your other bets Nulty.

scopper

Midnight Chase... nice run!

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

1:55 Cheltenham - Midnight Chase - 1pt e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Amazing. What a horse, he has the best attitude I've seen in a long time.

thesandeman

Luvly Jubley :-)

iggy

Oh yessssssssss. Free pints tonite

scopper

The big one now...I have no less than 3 in this race, dancing tornado, mad max and finger on the pulse. Not sure how this will go but the relief is there thanks to midnite chase

scopper

Oh place money for dancing tornado at 33/1 will do though so close!

x PyRo

2 places there, I am very very happy with that! Dancing Tornado could of and probably should of won. :eek:

thesandeman

Second and fourth. That will do nicely.

iggy

Oh Godmore free pints. Pyro I will curse u in the morning

Mr E

Well done that man.... great call!
Got 33/1 on Mad Max Dancing Tornado early this morning.

x PyRo

Enjoy the pints Iggy.

You mean Dancing Tonado, E. If Max was 33/1 I'd have the house and carpet on him to place. :pac:

Such a great day.

Nulty

Well done in spotting Dancing Tornado Pyro. Finished like a train

x PyRo

Cheers mate, very happy with that run from him but thought he was produced slightly too late. Not going to get greedy though, it feels good to have a good Saturday once again.

The Recliner

Good Man Pyro

You were due a good day so enjoy it

almat1981

Good shout with dancing tornado . Was about to say no one tipped little Josh but opened the paper and capt keen in the indo tipped him. Altough pretty much don't rate him .

L'prof

Well done man, in profit again! Missed Dancing Tornado myself