PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

4:10 Wolverhampton - Lewyn - 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Course specialist per say, has never won anywhere else and comes here on her last winning mark of 83, in which he won over 6f here. She's much more effective over this 5 furlong trip and I certainly think this mark isn't a true reflection of his abilities. She's a speedy type who rattled in 3 times from 4 runs at the beginning of this year, including a 1/2 length defeat of the progressive R Woody, who is now rated 93 on the turf, although not as effective on the AW but it's still decent form. I'm not quite sure how she's 25/1, her recent form has been relatively poor but she has a 13lb swing with the favourite, Piscean, all that for a 5 length defeat at a Kempton track (last time out) that she had never experienced before. That one is 3/1 here and I can't really get my head around it, Piscean has won since but has to contend with top weight and a career high mark, I wouldn't even consider getting involved at that price and I think that Lewyn can take advantage of the return to this track and overturn the form at a huge price.

Lewyn clearly goes well around here, that victory over 6f was highly impressive considering she lost a couple of lengths due to a bad break from the stall and yet she still readily asserted her dominance shortly after the home turn, she's even better over 5f and her last win over this distance (off 7/2) was a 4 length demolition job, in which she had so much in hand on her opponents, she was upped 9lbs for that win but it was highly impressive and she has the scope for more improvement, it's just a pity she doesn't handle turf. She's tactically versatile and can be ridden to race prominent or to be held up, with a likely rapid gallop on here it may pay to do the latter, she has speed to burn and her ability to stay further than this trip should ensure she'll be staying on very well in what could be an extremely quickly run race. She is trained by Kevin Ryan, a trainer I always keep an eye on as they seem to love a gamble and I'd be surprised if they don't get stuck into this one at such odds, I'm not worried about the price at all as the stable would be prone to having big priced winners with their last 2 being 20/1 and 12/1. Philip Makin takes the ride on her for the first time, he's a jockey I rate highly and he is 5/27 (19%) when riding for Ryan on the AW, including that 20/1 winner here a week or so ago. Lewyn is well drawn in stall 5 and with everything likely to suit I think she stands a mightily good chance, 25/1 isn't a true reflection of her chances and I had her priced up as a measly 8/1, based on what she can and has done at this track, not what she has done recently with conditions not to suit. The one problem is that it's so hard to catch Kevin Ryan horses right, I can never tell if his horses are actually trying but in the fear of missing a very high price I'll take that chance, they could well get stuck into a gamble tomorrow and there has been some market movement through the night with various bookmakers and on the exchange. She has each way claims at a minimum and I'm playing medium each way stakes in the hope that she's actually trying today. She has enough ability to win this and the 13lb swing with Piscean coupled with the return to this track could well she the form dramatically change, if all goes to plan. A 3 year old won this race at a nice price last year and there's only 2 in this race, my selection and Whozthecat, that one is far too short at 5/1 and has never experienced this track nor won on the AW, I'm sticking with history to hopefully repeat itself and the overpriced 3 year old to claim a scalp in a franticly run race.

x PyRo

That's my only bet, the racing's too crap or impossible to call.

x PyRo

Price just been cut with Bet365 to 20/1, VC went 16's from 25's, Hills go 16's too.

Stan James goes 25/1 still, don't think that'll last long.

Crowie13

12's now with PP :eek:

Johner

Crowie13 wrote: »

12's now with PP :eek:

I'm convinced they watch this thread.

Nulty

FFS, ew beaten into 4th by a short head and my saver beaten into second by a head

NaiveMelodies

Just me or did jockey seem disinterested in 3rd place?

Nulty

Just you. He threw everything at the horse and got tired towards the end. Absolutrly nothing wrong with the ride.

NaiveMelodies

Cheers, just noticed the horse slowing up bigtime toward the end.

x PyRo

Well at least she was trying today! Pity to just get nailed for a place but that's life, glad to have got a decent run for my money as it was a large bet on a complete outsider. Thought I had the place secured, all good each way bets come 4th.

Bank - 381.36pts (+281.36pts)

12:20 Southwell - Elkhorn - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (WillHill)

A shot in the dark here but this is by no means a tough race and the Julie Camacho trained 8 year old may prove to have a solid chance off a constantly easing mark. He comes here racing off a career low mark of 46, 26lbs lower than his last winning mark which was in '07 but if retaining any of his old ability he could well make a mockery of this field. Having failed to win a race in so long would normally put me off but he has ran some very good races in defeat, all off much lower marks and in tougher contests. He's also trying fibresand for the first time, which could bring out even more in him. He has run on 7 occasions previous to this, placing twice, both coming at Wolverhampton. He may be suited to the slower nature of the Southwell surface and although he has been drawn in stall 1, the 'coffin box', it may not actually be a bad place to be. Elkhorn is most effective in bigger fields and has 13 opponents to contend with here. Of his 5 career wins, only 1 has come with single number runners in the race, the other victories had 16, 17, 13 & 21 runners, he may need to pass some deadwood to build up confidence before taking off, he should get an ideal chance to do that here, whether he's up to it is another question but he's worth taking a chance on.

One worry I have is the stable form has been poor for sometime now, they're 35 runners without a win and have only had 8 winners from over 100 runners in 2010, although they're 4 from 29 on the AW, giving a 14% strike rate, which isn't bad. There's a fair amount of pace here and that may be ideal for Elkhorn, he's versatile with regards to tactics and can be suited to racing prominently or being held up, I'm favouring the latter here as he seems a confidence horse and when the prominent horses fade away he will hopefully get buzzed up from passing them, it's a relatively mad theory but the mentality of these horses is very odd and he seems to benefit from being held up, he's so long without a win but has the ability to change that in a race like this. The only problem with being held up at Southwell is that it's so tough to make up ground for varying reasons and that's not helped by the kickback, it's still worth taking a chance at 25/1 about a horse who has lots of potential to go well off 46. Elkhorn comes here after a relatively light season in which he only raced on 6 occasions, the last time being in September. He goes well after short breaks and could be rejuvenated for having it. Liam Jones takes the ride, his first for Julie Camacho. He's a jockey I rate as decent and he's prone to the odd big priced winner, if he can get this fellow settled in behind then I don't think he'll be too far away come the business end of proceedings. With things likely to suit and the only worry being the surface, I can't see how he justifies being a 25/1 shot, it's a long, long time since he went off anything near that price and I had him up as a 10/1 shot in what looks a weak and wide open race. Small each way stakes for this one and hopefully a good run.

x PyRo

3:20 Southwell - Mcconnell - 3pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Course specialist who has seen 3 of his 4 career victories come here, all in 2009 and 2 coming from 7 & 8lb higher marks than that of what he runs off here. The other win was in a claimer in which he was sent off 4/9 and won easily. He's now running off a mark of 68 in class 5 company, he has won off a mark 8lbs higher in class 4 company, he also won that very easily, a repeat of that performance would see him virtually unbeatable here, if on song and reacting positively to first time blinkers. He made a comeback in September after a 5 month lay off, he ran well for a long time but got tired inside the final furlong when seemingly having every chance, I reckon he needed the run and should strip a lot fitter for having that. He has needed a run in the past and won 2nd time up after a similar break in '08. It is now 2 months since that comeback run and he now reverts to the AW, he's very well drawn and now running with blinkers, all over his favourite trip of 1 mile. Everything's ideal and I think he has a favourites chance, as he currently is. He is partnered by George Baker, the man who won aboard him on his last 2 wins here. When pairing up with Mcconnell their form here reads : 1-2-1. Very impressive to say the least and Baker clearly gets the best out of this well bred gelding.

Gary Moore has an impressive 21% strike rate at Southwell in recent seasons and comes here with his stable in good knick. He has recently had Mcconnell returned to his stable (made return last time out) after having 6 runs for the Butler yard, the horse should appreciate the return to the yard who got the best out of him and I expect they'll be out to get him winning off what looks a very good mark. When Baker rides for Gary Moore on the AW surface of Southwell he has 5 wins from 17 runners, giving them a massive 29% strike rate, it doesn't happen too often and looks a very interesting jockey booking. 3 of their last 5 runners here since '09 have ended with a visit to the winners enclosure, Baker rarely visits Southwell nowadays, he hasn't had a ride here in 2010 and didn't have many in '09 either, I find it very interesting that he comes here for just one ride today and it looks significant. There are some decent horses in here but Mcconnell represents the most solid chance on these terms, he has a lot more ability than a mark of 68 would suggest and the first time blinkers could spark some more improvement should they have the desired effect. He was well backed into 4/1 last time out on turf when coming 4 lengths behind the progressive Tevez, if it was a case of just needing the run then I think he's bordering on a 'good thing' here, although the blinkers working will be key to that claim coming through. He still has a massive chance here if getting to run his race, he's well drawn and should get a race ran exactly to his liking. I think he'll be very hard to beat and there has been late night support for him with his price shifting from 6's into 9/2. He's the 2/1 miles clear favourite in my book and he's worth medium stakes. He should prove tough to beat having so much in his favour but this is a class 5 contest with some inconsistent horses who can be good on their day and terrible the next so I'm playing it more cautiously than I'd like to.

x PyRo

3:50 Southwell - Astrodiva - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Frustrating 4 year old maiden who has some fine bits of form but hasn't managed to get her head in front as of yet. She has came seconds on 4 occasions with 3 thirds, she has finished 4 lengths behind Sheshali (winner off 83), 6 lengths behind (off 75) Akmal, who peaked at a rating of 111, 10 length second (off 78) to Whispering Gallery, who had a highest rating of 115. All of those runs are highly impressive in comparison to the opponents she faces here and a repetition of any of those would see her go very close here. She made her handicap debut off a mark of 78 and has subsequently dropped 23lbs to a rating of 55, which is an astounding drop considering she has only run very badly on one occasion. Ashley Morgan takes the ride and his 5lb claim effectively leaves Astrodiva running off 50, a mark that should put her bang in contention here in this class 6 event. This is her first run on fibresand but if she takes to it then the 10/1 price tag could be made to look a little silly as she's clearly a horse who on her day could absolutely rout this field. She wasn't seen from October 09 until the same month this year, she has had 3 runs since, coming 7th on each occasion, beaten by 6 lengths, 8 lengths, and most recently, 3 lengths, on the AW of Lingfield. She may have needed a couple of those runs and last time out she showed the ability I thought she had but just ran out of steam inside the last 150 yards.

I find it interesting that Mark Tompkins now bring Astrodiva to Southwell, a track he has done well at in the past and one he wouldn't visit too often. He has a 14% strike rate here overall and since 2007 he has had 12 winners from 60 runners, a very impressive 20% strike rate. This jumps up to 25% when Ashley Morgan takes the ride, they're 5 wins from 20 runners at Southwell and clearly form a good partnership. Morgan is a jockey I rate relatively highly and his 5lb claim could prove very valuable, it takes Astrodiva's weight to carry down to 9st, which against this quality of animal, could prove a big help over this 12f trip. The trip should be ideal for my selection and if she proves much fitter for the 3 runs since last month we should see a much better filly in this contest. She's likely to be suited by the track and the only question is whether she'll handle the ground here at Southwell, at 10/1 I'm certainly willing to take a chance on that. It's a very weak race overall and bar an excessively poor run we should her finish in the top 3, there are a couple of decent horses here but many are out of form or unproven on this surface, like my selection. 10/1 looks way too big to me, she's an 11/2 shot in my book and should go very well if showing her capabilities of old, small/medium each way stakes is the call for this one and I'm hoping for a place at the very least.

x PyRo

More money for Mcconnell early doors, into 10/3 now with Bet365 and 3/1 with SJ's and Hills. Could go off even shorter if they're getting stuck in. 9/2 looks huge now.

In the Elkhorn race this Luijana has been backed from 25's and now hovering around 9/1, 12's still available with Hills, could be worth a small bet. Actually not now, just as I type this it has opened 17/2 with VC and the price has been cut with Hills. Opened 6's with SJ's. :eek: Mental markets at the moment.

Not expecting much market movement for my one to be honest. Still overpriced though.

Astrodiva came in just there, gone 9/1.

x PyRo

VC now go 14's for Elkhorn, they must be getting a few pennies for him.

Mcconnell now 11/4 across the board. I really think he'll win, may even go below the 2/1 I priced him at.

iggy

Elkhorn 20/1 PP and Luijana 7/1

Crowie13

Get in there, good man Pyro

OutlawPete

Nice winner X.

iggy

U little beauty. Great shout Pyro

thesandeman

Nice one Pyro :-)

woodyg

dam it i forgot all about this
great shout on that one Pyro

Moffo

x PyRo wrote: »

VC now go 14's for Elkhorn, they must be getting a few pennies for him.

Mcconnell now 11/4 across the board. I really think he'll win, may even go below the 2/1 I priced him at.

Good call again Pyro

mailburner

great shout with mcconnell

couldnt bring myself to back it at 13/8 though
unreal price you got there
well done

argosy2006

so well backed, GREAT BET !!!!

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Owe ya a pint PyRo.;)
Got Mcconnell at 9/4.

x PyRo

+8.5pts today.

Bank - 389.86pts (+289.86pts)


Thanks for the comments everyone, I just hope ye got decent prices. Sorry about the other donkey that followed, I'm going to avoid her from now on I think, she's an odd one.

thesandeman

Only got 9/4 but trusted my own instincts this time and doubled with Nautical Approach so got a nice return. (Not aftertiming, just explaining lol).

Crowie13

I got 5/2 at 10.15am so was happy with that

x PyRo

2:20 Lingfield - Elspeth's Boy - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Fine looking price for a fine looking horse. He's a well bred 3 year old who belied odds of 33/1 to win on debut over this 7 furlong trip at Wolverhampton, he was the deemed good enough to run in the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket but this was certainly a step too far for the well bred Tiznow colt. His sire was a mighty fine all weather horse and this one could well prove a decent type too. Elspeth's Boy only managed to beat home 2 rivals in his 2 races after his Group 1 race and was then off the track until making a comeback at Kempton 3 weeks ago. He ran a very respectable race, coming 6th in the end, just shy of 4 lengths off the winner. His passage through was not without interference as he very nearly ran into the back of another horse (opponent cut across) then had to check his stride and switch left, this cost him any chance of winning but he probably wouldn't of anyways. He traveled like a dream throughout that race and seemed to be staying on well before being forced to check his stride, he may also have needed the run so it certainly seems like a good run after over 4 months off. He'll strip fitter for having that run and has dropped another 3lbs in the handicap for his last run, all leaving him on a very attractive mark of 76.

What interests me is the run at Kempton, it's a notoriously slow surface in comparison to Lingfield and I think this should suit him a lot more, he did win at Wolverhampton on the AW and that's only second to Lingfield in terms of surface speed. He should relish this surface and with a likely strong pace he'll have everything to suit, he's also relatively well drawn in stall 3. Elspeth's Boy is trained by Jim Best, the yard is in fine condition at the moment with 5 winners from 17 runners so far this month and this is their only runner today at a track where they done well at in recent times. Luke Morris is an interesting jockey booking, he's a decent jockey and rides well around here, his strike rate is 10% but when riding for Best at Lingfield he is 2 from 3 (66%), both at good prices of 11/2 and 7/1. Morris will be the key to getting this one to win as the horse seems to need some coaxing along when asked to pick up, with the likely strong gallop I reckon he could be staying on as well as anything if he can just grab the lead late on, he'd certainly be hard to pass if doing so. There are some good types in this race with the likes of Regeneration and Avertor lining up but the latter is tough to win with and unproven over this trip, the former is too short for me and looks a little high in the weight, added to that is Mr. Spencer taking the ride, opposable based on that alone! My selection has to overturn form with Lowther, to which he finished 1.5 lengths behind last time out, however, there is a 9lb swing the Best horses favour here and that rival is half the price at 6/1, madness. Also given my selection potential liking for the surface, I do not think 12/1 is justified, I had him priced up as an 11/2 shot and should place if coming on for that run. Small each way stakes for this one as it's a very tough race and one could come out of the woodwork, I'm hoping the one who does that is the Jim Best 3 year old who is open to a lot more improvement on only his 6th career run.

x PyRo

1:30 Warwick - Flemish Invader - 2pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

Bumper and hurdle winner turned chaser who nearly made a winning start to the new campaign when overcoming a 7 month lay off to come a half length 3rd to Dunkelly Castle at the beginning of October. He managed to hit 1.30 in running and looked the likely winner but he hung right 3 out before running on well on the flat, he just couldn't get there in the end but it was a very good run in a decent race. He is a 7 year old now and has been campaigned at various distances from 2m to 3m, this 2m 4f trip today on Good to Soft ground at a sharp track should suit him ideally, he finishes out his races quite well in these conditions and with a likely fast pace due to half the field being front runners, we could and should see him staying on as well as anything in very suitable conditions. He'll be partnered today by Paddy Brennan, a jockey I always rated highly and he has been on board him no less than 11 times, including his 2 career victories. Brennan knows the horse well and if any man can guide him to his first chase victory it will be him.

Flemish Invader is trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, the yard have been bang in form and send 3 here today, to a course on which they do very well and have a 19% strike rate with their chasers here, showing a small LSP at the same time. Their strike rate jumps up to 36% when it is Brennan on board and 40% when he's on board their chasers at Warwick, very impressive stats and they team up for 3 runners today, Flemish Invader being their best chance of victory, in my opinion. There's certainly a win in this fellow off a mark of 107 and I'm sure we haven't seen the best of him over fencer yet, this is a tough race by all means but he stands a favourites chance of getting the job done and he should come on tenfold for having that run last month. I suspect that the Twiston-Davies team will be trying to get him to break his maiden tag over the larger obstacles and if they are he'll take a hell of a lot of beating. He's still relatively lightly raced and open to more progression, a quickly run race on a sharp left handed course could bring that out of him, he's a nice jumper and ideally suited to the ground here, which will hopefully see him run his race. 7/2 is value in my opinion, he's the 7/4 favourite in my book with the rest of the field relatively close in price, he should prove to be the one to beat and if coming on from his close third then I feel we could be collecting here. Small/medium stakes due to the openness of the race but he stands a good chance.

x PyRo

4:40 Kempton - Alana Banana - 1pt @ 15/2 (WillHill)

I'm taking a small chance on this one here, she ran well last time after showing very little on her first 5 starts, only managing to beat home 3 rivals in that time, which is truly awful but she shaped as if on a winning mark when coming a 1.75 length 4th of 7 after running on strongly over course and distance. It was the first time she dropped down to 5 furlongs and it seemed to do the trick, she ran quite free at the beginning but looked a lot more comfortable after going around the bend before running on quite strongly when finding it tough to get any gaps. With more opponents here we should see her get a nice sit in behind to run on late and she has the big positive of Dane O'Neill on board for the first time. Alana Banana is actually very well bred and cost £20,000 as a yearling, she clearly hasn't lived up to her potential and off a mark of 50 she may not be out of things. She was backed from 40/1 into 10's on her penultimate start at Wolverhampton before easing out to 33/1 before the off, she seemed fancied in the early morning but the lack of any support in the afternoon was quite odd but it could indicate that they may be expecting her to get in front soon enough.

Alana Banana should be well able to make her presence felt if improving for that decent run last time out, if anything it should give her a lot more confidence when on the track. Dane O'Neill being on board will help as he's very good at getting a horse settled in behind to run on late and I'd be expecting that'll be the tactics used today, potentially enforced due to having the widest stall here. Typically they say it's very tough to win from stall 1 at Kempton but the results suggest it's not too bad and given her hold up style, it certainly should have a huge bearing on proceedings, I'm just hoping the "poor" draw ensures we'll get a decent price come morning. She's forecast to be a 4/1 shot but is currently trading at 11.0 on the exchange, a price that I'd be over the moon with if it becomes available in the morning. Alana Banana is one of the more unexposed ones here in a shocking class 7 event and she could well progress beyond the majority of these and I think she's worth taking a chance on despite my dislike of punting in these races. Small win stakes here for a horse who could justify being a 3/1 shot in a race of this calibre.