PyRo's Horse Bets.

mailburner

best of luck with it
im coming along for the ride

that looks a fantastic price for a horse that couldnt have won its
two races over c&d any easier

x PyRo

Cheers MB, this is much tougher off a 15lb higher mark but he's still on the up and has a rapid turn of foot. Yard are in flying form of late too, which is a big plus. Only thing I worry about is the amount coaxing along he needs at times, those sorts always worry me as I notice a lot of them throw in the towel if they're ridden along a couple of furlongs out, he doesn't seem to do that but I'd much prefer if he was a 'cruiser' that just lurked until the final furlong before showing his speed. Not really a big deal by any means but it's always a worry of mine with horses like this. The jockey is 2/2 on him and gave him 2 good rides, smacked the feck out of him in the second win, even when he was 6 lengths clear! Quite odd.

No really speedy types here anyways so I expect our one will get the lead, I reckon he'd be mightily good if making the running, can get the field off the bridle in a matter of strides, hopefully he'll do that today over the minimum trip. That's where I think he could have a massive edge over the field. Here's hoping anyways.

Nulty

Why post it in the thread if its not for the thread? And you've reasoned it out fairly thoroughly there why not include it? I haven't looked at the race so I couldn't pass comment on your pick.

x PyRo

Nulty wrote: »

Why post it in the thread if its not for the thread? And you've reasoned it out fairly thoroughly there why not include it? I haven't looked at the race so I couldn't pass comment on your pick.

Fair point.

I just don't want to advise any stake that I haven't time to (what I consider) thoroughly write out my research. Just thought I'd mention it, thread gone a bit dead too due to no good racing and a lack of time at the moment. Plus normally when I mention no stake they win! It's a huge bet for me so I'm using the 'no stake' method. :P

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Fair point.

I just don't want to advise any stake that I haven't time to (what I consider) thoroughly write out my research. Just thought I'd mention it, thread gone a bit dead too due to no good racing and a lack of time at the moment. Plus normally when I mention no stake they win! It's a huge bet for me so I'm using the 'no stake' method. :P

Your stupid like a FOX! :pac:

The lack of decent racing is giving me withdrawal symptoms. If I wasn't obliged to live out my real life I'd be in serious trouble. I can't look at the AW cards in depth knowing the Tingle Creek should be on...this weather had better feck off very quickly!

YouTube has me awake at this hour. Power Down....*

x PyRo

One of my mates ends the majority of sentences with 'like a fox'. :pac:

Yeah it's atrocious, I've little if any motivation to go through class 5 and 6 races, sellers, claimers, maidens and the likes. Just can't be arsed. Quite annoying as I miss my gambloring. C'mon Shostaaa!

Mr E

On the bright side, you're going to make a friggin' fortune over the Christmas meetings, right?

yesno1234

Thanks Pyro first time I'm going with one of your tips. Good Luck

yesno1234

Came in 2nd. I had backed him each was so think I lost about 12 euro. Unlucky Pyro

mailburner

didn't really consider the winner too much
beat the rest well enough though :pac:

coughlan08

this was my first bet ina while..had to drive into town to put on bet,had 100 on,dont mind losing it but almost got killed on the road on the way in,the car kicked out when going around a corner,scary but funny all the same...
not thr best of days,,wright back to study,actually il have a cup of tea first.:D

x PyRo

I don't like that horse any more. :pac:

1:50 Exeter - Au Courant - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (PaddyPower)

Plenty of risk when backing this fellow, you never know what he'll do but I believe he retains enough ability to win some day soon and I'm willing to pass over his stamina doubts over this 4 mile trip, at 40's he's certainly worth a go. He's a former Nicky Henderson trained horse who has since moved to the Sophie Leech yard, a yard I know little about but they've had 6 winners from their last 40 odd runners, which is impressive giving the fact that they only had 11 winners from the previous 280. Au Courant has run 4 times for his new yard, didn't perform well in any of them really but has dropped to a mark now 16lbs below his last winning official rating. I'm very interested that he's now going to Exeter, his first run on a right handed track for quite a while. His form completing right handed reads : 1-1-2-1-4, that's highly impressive in comparison to his bog standard form when going the opposite way. His stamina is another doubt but he managed to complete over 26 furlongs last time out over the really tough Aintree fences in the Listed Becher Chase, although he was 7th out of 7 completing and 40 lengths behind the winner but I believe it showed more promise in reality than it does on paper, he was also hampered at the 13th of 20 fences which possibly cost him any chance he had of going closer, it wasn't a bad run when all things are considered.

Au Courant now drops to class 3 company again and I fancy him to go a lot better than he has in recent times, he has always struck me as a staying type and I'm hoping that'll come to be proven here. He hasn't looked too interested of late but now has conditions that I consider very favourable, on his day he can canter through his races so easily that it makes him look like a good thing but he has managed to get outpaced so easily of late and makes a lot of silly jumping mistakes, however, I think it could all come together for him soon and he'll take advantage of a lowly handicap mark, hopefully that could be today. He's the complete outsider due to recent runs being so poor but I prefer to look at what a horse can do and if he managed to come back to 80% of his former self then I reckon he'd have these beaten before they line out, pity it's not as easy as that but he's worth keeping an eye on for a while as that elusive win isn't too far away, in my opinion. I'm not too keen on his jockey, Johnny Farrelly, but he's decent enough and if the horse came close to his true self then it wouldn't take a brilliant jockey to get him to go close here. Au Courant is 10 years old now but he has only had 15 career starts so he's quite lightly raced and although I doubt there's much more to come from him in terms of progression, I certainly believe he could on day run like the horse that won off a mark of 135, whether that'll be over such a long trip as he faces here I don't know, but I'll take my chances. It's a shot in the dark backing an out of form horse with stamina doubts but 40/1 is far too good to turn down, especially how much more effective I believe he is when going right handed. He's a 16/1 shot in my book, only worth small stakes but stranger things have happened and he has the ability to cause a major shock here, assuming he puts his best foot forwards.

x PyRo

2:30 Lingfield - Whiskey Junction - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (VC)

Front runner who will need things to go favourably if he's going to win but looks to have a very good chance now returned to 6 furlongs having ran well on 3 occasions over the minimum 5 furlong trip. He also looks very well handicapped off a mark of 72, which is lower than all of his last 4 winning marks and the same mark as his other 2 victories. Whiskey Junction has also won here off a mark 11lbs higher, when scoring here readily in June of 08. He went on to win twice more in 09 off marks of 75 and 78 but has failed to get his head in front since, this looks an ideal opportunity to change that if he can get anywhere near the lead, which I think he will as he's ideally positioned to attack, possibly sitting just behind the likely pace set by Freddie's Girl, who may line it up perfectly for my selection.

Whiskey Junction hasn't been beaten by far on his last 3 starts, his worst run was a 3.75 length defeat when coming 3rd to the progressive Kinigi. I fancy that he'll enjoy the return to 6f and the return to this track too. He has Shane Kelly on board for the 3rd time in his career, he's a jockey I rate highly (comes here for only this ride) and assuming he can give a very intelligent ride, I don't see him being too far away from the business end of proceedings. He has never run off such a low mark at this course and I think he could well take advantage of that, helped by his good draw in stall 4. His yard isn't in great form, without a winner since the end of August but haven't had too many runners since and some have shaped quite well in the mean time, I'm hoping they could break the duck here with a bit of luck. 10/1 looks a great price for this fellow and with the likely pattern of the race falling in his favour I think he looks a perfect each way bet, he's only a 6/1 shot in my book and I'm expecting a big run. Small/medium each way stakes in the hope that he runs his usual tough front running race, if he gets to the front he'll certainly be hard to pass if in the right frame of mind, he's hard to catch right but I think he's not too far away from visiting the winners enclosure for the 7th time in his career.

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

2:30 Lingfield - Whiskey Junction - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (VC)

<snip>

I'm just about to hit the sack and caught this. I'm torn between 4 horses in this race and Whiskey Junction is one.The others are Even Boulder, Efistorm and Sioux Rising. I'm leaning towards the fav but will sleep on it and decide tomorrow. Good luck. We all seem to need plenty of it lately!

thesandeman

Au Courant only 16 and 20s this morning :-(

mookie2007

Crowie13 wrote: »

Drifted to 8/1 before the off and only managed 4th. Thought it was travelling well coming around the bend but got blocked off and then ran on once it got the break. Not a great ride, thought the jockey could have done better IMO.

Just got 25's on 365

thesandeman

Ill have to get around to opening an a/c with them. I dont like places without a b+m presence though. Took 20s with Boyles. Meeting prob wont go ahead anyway. Another inspection at 11.

yesno1234

Got him at 40 last night.

argosy2006

Pyros back in the saddle, boo yawwww

thesandeman

Drifted to 40s now. Would be nice for Xmas.

yesno1234

How was he doing bedore he pulled up? Didnt get a chance to watch the race.

x PyRo

He was cruising, then off the bridle, cruising again, off the bridle, cruising again. So weird. They quickened up from the front around a mile out and he was completely spent, just faded into oblivion then. I'm giving up on him at those sort of trips but I'm going to keep with him at anything from 2m 4f to 3 miles. He'll click some day at a big price, possibly if he has a good jockey on board, wasn't thrilled with the ride he got today but he is an awkward horse anyways.

The other one came 5th, ran well for a long way but proved hard to catch right once again. He's worth following on the AW this winter, certainly well handicapped and a win isn't far away if he keeps running as he has of late.

Bank - 382.86pts (+282.86pts)


I should have a couple for tomorrow, not great racing but I'm so bored so I'll be having a bet or two. Hopefully some winners.

OutlawPete

x PyRo wrote: »

I should have a couple for tomorrow, not great racing but I'm so bored so I'll be having a bet or two. Hopefully some winners.

The All weather looks good later in the week, some Class 3 and 4 races at least.

You think Cheltenham will go ahead?

x PyRo

Not sure Pete, hearing that it's in doubt at the moment but hoping for the best. Sick of the AW tbh, it's doing my head in!

1:50 Southwell - Royal Holiday - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

This is a very weak affair and it may well pay to stick with the highest rated horse here. He goes well around Southwell usually and despite coming here out of form he looks relatively well treated and likely to be suited by the potential stamina test over this 1m trip. He's a C&D winner and has also won a maiden here over 6 furlongs, beating a horse not rated in the mid 80's. He has the speed to go with the stamina and I'm hoping he'll race quite prominent here from a plum draw in stall 4. He was easily beaten last time out over C&D when finishing a well beat 11th of 14, however, he was hampered at the beginning of that race and could never get involved. That run is best overlooked and he now takes a step back in class to compete against what looks like a relatively weak field bar a few of the market leaders.

Royal Holiday is now only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark of 57, he also has a good 5lb claimer on board in Toby Atkinson, a jockey I rate highly and the same man that helped him to score here when he was sent off as a 16/1 shot in a hotter contest than this. He's trained by Brian Ellison, a trainer I always keep an eye on and one who has been in good form of late with many of his horses running well, especially on the AW of Southwell. He does tremendously well here and has an overall strike rate of 18% with a LSP of £71, highly impressive stats. 11 of his last 50 runners here have tasted success and he comes to Southwell quite heavy handed with 5 of his runners set to come under starters orders, although a couple are opposing each other, including in this race. Atkinson doesn't ride too often for Ellison and I suspect he sees him as good value for his claim, it also comes in handy that despite being the highest rated horse he will only have to carry 9st 2lbs, which will help against relatively poor horses. He's no great shake himself and I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't get involved but he's unexposed on the AW having only had 6 starts (2 win), he's on what I consider a good mark and he should get a race run to suit. The Barron horse is the big worry as he won with a good bit in hand last time out but it's not often that Barron horses land successive races and he's worth opposing here. Royal Holiday looks priced much too big at 8/1, he's a 5/1 shot in my book and worth small/medium stakes in the hope that he puts his previous race behind him and returns to being the horse that runs well at Southwell. He has the ability to do so but a good break will be key, if he gets it he'll have a good chance.

x PyRo

1:30 Lingfield - Final Verse - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

This price looks significantly too big for a horse who was very unlucky in running last time out in a better quality of race. He was one of the last horses off the bridle but couldn't get a run when trying to go the shortest way along the inside rail, when he eventually got some room he ran on well before his challenge was cut short by the finishing line. He was just over a length and a half away from the winner, finishing in 5th place overall. He's previously a very high class horse having been rated as a 109 horse in his days as a Sir Michael Stoute trained horse, he even finished just 5 lengths behind the famous George Washington in the '06 2000 Guineas. He's now with Matthew Salaman, a trainer that I've never heard of before!

Final Verse is clearly a previously high class animal who demands respect at this level, 6/1 seems more like an insult if the horse runs like he did last time out and gets some luck in running. He also had the blinkers coupled with his regular eye shield on for the first time last time out, he slightly missed the break but with a better break today and the likely hood that he'll strip better for having experienced the headgear combination in a competitive race, I see him running a cracker. He's also well drawn in stall 12 with the inform Luke Morris on board, I really rate him highly, especially on the AW and I expect that he'll know more about this horse now on what is his second time riding him. There's a distinct lack of pace here, I feel this will suit Final Verse as he often runs the final couple of furlongs of his races very quickly and could well benefit the likely hood of a closely packed field, the rest will be fate and how lucky he gets with regards to luck in running. I still feel he has a huge chance here if coming into the race in the same vein as last time out, a clean break will be required also as he missed it when last seen. 6/1 is huge, he's the 11/4 favourite in my book and medium stakes will be played. He has a very good chance of gaining his 6th career win.

x PyRo

That's me done. Hopefully one wins, preferably both.

Rekop dog

Pyro are you able to get any decent amounts on at 3 in the morning on Bet365? Imo they're the most ridiculous bookmakers, if your any way successful with them they cap your bet sizes especially in low class races with low liquidity like the ones your backing.

thesandeman

Hugh gone for Final Verse as well so price is dropping. Good prices available for the other one though. Took 9s with Boyles.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Royal Holiday 9/1 with PP now.
Final Verse 4/1.

OutlawPete

Bad luck ..

Final Verse (4th) will win soon, looked the classier horse.

Royal Holiday 3rd, didn't see this one.