PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

4:30 Kempton - Robby Bobby - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (VC)

Very tasty price here for a horse who has dropped to a very favourable mark now that he's a full 24lbs below his last winning mark. He hasn't won since January of 09 but shaped as if he still retained a certain amount of that ability when placing in a seller last time out, on his first run for the Laura Mongan stable. He's now dropped to a mark of 65, a career low, fully 30lbs lower than his peak rating in March of last year. That's a huge drop and I fancy he could well oblige some day soon as I think the change of environment seemed to perk him up, based on how he ran last time out. The yard seem to be in decent knick of late and Kemtpon has been a happy hunting ground for them in the past, the horse also handles the polytrack surface with ease, as proved when he won at Lingfield off a mark of 89.

Robby Bobby was obviously not in good form before the 3rd place effort last time out but I believe he could kick on having performed much better compared to previous efforts when trained by Mark Johnston. What impressed me last time out was how he traveled through the race, he raced 3 or 4 horses wide throughout the race and was held up in rear, he cruised up into 2nd place, looming large and looking a huge threat. His challenge petered out in the final 2 furlongs over 12 furlongs but he now drops back to 10f, a trip much more to his liking. He should get a good gallop here and his draw in stall 14 of 14 should ensure a nice sit on the rail before hopefully getting a run through on that rail, the area of ground that I believe to be the fastest at Kempton. The only problem is that I believe he performs better on left handed track but at 14/1 I'm willing to take my chances. Ian Mongan gets the ride here, he's the trainers husband and they strike up a mighty fine partnership at Kempton having had 12 wins from 76 runners, giving them a 16% strike rate and an impressive LSP of £49.50p. Mongan is a very capable jockey and I'm hoping they've got this fellow out to run his race from what looks a very nice mark. 14/1 is very good value, he's an 8/1 shot in my book and likely to give a good account of himself assuming he handles going around the opposite way. I think he should and he's worth a small each way bet. One to follow over the winter on the AW and lets hope he starts his handicap debut for the Mongans with a bang.

x PyRo

6:00 Kempton - Satwa Gold - 2pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Generally a consistent sort who has a mighty fine record on the all weather particularly at Kempton where he has run 9 times, winning 3, and coming 2nd on 3 occasions too. Last time out, he finished in 4th place over C&D, just over 5 lengths behind Morar, who he re-opposes here again. There's a big 10lb swing in the weights in favour of my selection and I certainly feel the form could and should be overturned here, plus Satwa Gold is almost double the price of his rival. He will also strip much better for having had his 2 recent runs after being off for 2 months, not a big lay off by any means but he's usually at his best when kept busy. He stays 2 miles with ease and is now 2lbs below his last winning mark which was over C&D in August of this year, I'm expecting another big performance here.

Satwa Gold is a very strong traveler, he often cruises through his races before being produced on the outside with a late run. Sometimes he's not as quick to take off as others are, which really cost him a chance of winning last time out as he let the winner get first run on him which proved vital, as when push came to shove, he found nothing at all despite looming large and looking likely to either win or finish 2nd. 4th was the best he could do in the end but looked right back to his best and has since been dropped another 2lbs by the handicapper. This race should pan out perfectly for him as the potential pace setter, High On The Hill, is likely to take them along at a fair gallop. Assuming he takes the lead that is, but I can't see anyone else taking them along and he's definitely the likely candidate. This could end up being a tactical affair and Adam Kirby is on board my selection, he's a very good jockey in my opinion and one who could prosper in a tactical race. He also does well when riding for Stef Higgins and her yard is going relatively well at the moment. I think he'll run a good race and hopefully win, the big danger is Spring Jim but he's too short for me. I'll happily have a small/medium bet on the Stef Higgins trained 4 year old to take advantage of a nice mark to score his 4th career win at this course. 11/2 looks like a gift as he's only 7/2 in my book, much shorter than the odd currently on the table.

stingerro

x PyRo wrote: »

6:00 Kempton - Satwa Gold - 2pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Found a 2nd reccomendation for him when visiting some other betting forums in best bets of the day thread :cool:
Hopefully that poster is decent too :rolleyes:

x PyRo

That was probably me too.

4th and 4th. No cigar.

-4pts on the day.

12:10 Cheltenham - Othermix - 1pt @ 9/1 (VC)

Originally when I was going through this race I was all for the Nicky Henderson trained Spirit River. I think he'll make a mighty fine chaser and shaped well last time out on his first spin over the bigger obstacles but fell after blundering at the 11th. He jumped supremely before that mistake and looked as if there was no way he could be beaten but alas, there was. He's only 6/4 here and I'm going to go with the value pick of the race as it's certainly not a race for lumping on anything, very trappy to say the least. The next best in my view is the Ian Williams trained Othermix. He has much more experience over fences than most of this field, although from his 8 spins over fences, he has never tasted victory. He has come 2nd on 3 occasions and has 2 3rd places to his name, all in relatively good races. His standout form is over C&D when he was a close 2nd of 20 to Copper Bleu in the Listed Jewson Novices' Chase at this years festival. That's good form by all means and he was unlucky in running on a few occasions in that race.

Othermix is a very nice jumper on his day and I fancy the likely pace to be strong enough to help him gain an advantage in that department. He really enjoyed the quick pace in the Jewson and with a fair few here in contention to take them along, I'm expecting a good gallop from the off. He also handles most ground conditions so I see no problems in that regard. He only carries 11st here and has the benefit of Dougie Costello in the saddle, this is Costello's first time on his back and he's a jockey I hold in the highest regard. He's riding at the top of his game lately and has done well from his relatively few rides over the Cheltenham chase course. He has 4 winners from 15 rides, which gives Dougie a very nice strike rate of 27% and a LSP of £20. He's 1 from 1 (100%!) over this course when riding for Ian Williams, 3 win from 7 rides overall. Williams' yard has had a good year with their chasers having seen 7 reach the winners enclosure from 25 runners. He's a tough man to catch right but a mighty fine trainer in my opinion and always one who can get a horse in tip top condition. I highly doubt we've seen the best of this one yet and at odds of 9/1, I think he is a very good value call here. Spirit River should and probably will win but he's too short in a race of this calibre and I've priced Othermix up at 5/1, significantly less than his current price. Tiny win bet on him in the hope that he pulls off a mini shock.

coughlan08

i see shostakovich is running again in southwell,im assuming you wont go in again at those odds but how do you rate his chances.?
thanks.

x PyRo

If he doesn't win I'll be surprised. Interesting jockey booking with Travis Block coming to Southwell for 1 ride for a trainer he doesn't often ride for. He's a jockey I quite like and he does excellently at the course. Return to 6 furlongs is right up Shostakovich's street and I can't see what could beat him. I'm not getting involved because it's a heavy day for me at Cheltenham, but if it wasn't I'd be plowing in again.

coughlan08

alright thanks pyro,thoughts always appreciated..
im going to throw him in a double with master minded @10/11,which is a great price imo,he would be 1/3 in my book if back to his best..

thesandeman

Youre starting early tonight Pyro. Lets hope Chelt goes ahead. Lookin forward to the X Country myself. On another note Stef is planning to put a tongue-tie on Satwa next time out because she reckons thats the problem so dont lose faith ;-)

x PyRo

No problem Coughlan, MM should win too, would be surprised if he didn't but who knows!

Sandy, cheers for the info, definitely going to be on him next time there's a strap on him. He looks an awkward one at the best of times!

12:40 Cheltenham - Aather - 3pts @ 7/1 (VC)

This fellow has an absolutely huge chance here if repeating the run that seen him come 2nd of 16 over C&D last January. He cruised into the lead before the last, still on the bridle but idled badly in front, thus throwing away his chances in the final 100 yards of the contest. That was on very testing ground and I've a feeling the slightly better conditions today will be much more up his street. He was off from May until October before making his comeback in a hot contest at Ascot, where he finished 6 lengths behind Tocca Ferro in 4th place, that horse has since went on to frank the form by winning easily at Listed level off a mark of 134. My selection was also behind Hibki, who finished a neck 2nd in that race but the 6lb swing should be enough to see that form overturned quite handily.

Aather should also strip much fitter for having had that run, he jumped quite lazily throughout and made a few mistakes. I also think he's much more effective when going left handed and the extra furlong here should be in his favour. He's a speedy type who can cruise through his races with relative ease and the likely strong gallop should ensure he'll get his chance to show his burst of speed in the final couple of furlongs. If he gets to the front as easily as he did on his only run at this course then I do not anticipate the same mistakes being made again, I think he'll put the race to bed in a matter of strides if the chance arises for him to do so. He's still potentially well handicapped off a mark of 125 and he's usually consistent, running his race more often than not. He's still relatively lightly raced having only had 10 spins over hurdles and he's sure to prove to be progressive throughout the 2010/11 National Hunt season. I'm hoping he'll come on for that run as I expect he will and gain his first win of this season before going on to better things. He has the ability, speed and stamina to do so but he just looks awkward at times, like when he through away the race here in January. Timmy Murphy is his regular pilot and he's on board again, he's a class jockey and rides the Cheltenham track very well. He has impressive stats when riding for the Fleming yard as they have a 25% strike rate over hurdles after 8 wins from 32 runners, with a further 12 placing, impressive to say the least. I fancy Aather to do a good job today, although it's a tough race but he looks very nicely priced at 7/1. He's the 4/1 favourite in my book and I expect he could go off something around that price. Medium stakes for me and hopefully he runs as expected.

x PyRo

1:15 Cheltenham - Fine Parchment - 2pts @ 10/1 (WillHill)

Comes here in fine form having won and finished runner up from his his last 2 starts. He'd much prefer if this was a slog in heavy ground but he's effective on most ground and comes here having looked a lot more efficient on his last 2 starts than he has shown in previous times, often finishing weak and making jumping mistakes constantly. He made his return in October after a 6 month break and ran poorly before racing at Uttoxeter over 2m 4f on heavy ground. He jumped wonderfully throughout and showed a very good turn of foot to put the race to bed a long way from home, he ended up scooting in by a total of 23 lengths in a 6 runner race. He was raised 8lbs for that effort and headed to Aintree to contest a class 3 contest over 3m 1f. He ended up coming 2nd and possibly would of won but for hitting a flat spot when the tempo picked up. He did stay on to grab 2nd place in the dying stages and I think it was a good run, all things considered.

Fine Parchment now comes to Cheltenham for the first time in his 12 race chasing career. I expect it'll suit him perfectly as he's most effective going left handed and also he's likely to be suited by the testing nature of the course. Assuming he jumps like he did in that Uttoxeter contest he will be in the thick of things come the end of the race. He has won on good, soft and heavy ground, I believe the likely Good to Soft ground today will be perfect and will have enough give in it to suit him. He's also remounted by Peter Toole, the jockey who guided him to that 23l demolition on his penultimate start. He's a very capable rider and he's 1 from 1 on this horse. He does well when riding for Charlie Mann and they're 5 from 31 when running chasers, giving them a 16% strike rate. The yard is in grand form of late and CJ has worked wonders with this horse in recent times. Fine Parchment will appreciate the step back to 2m 5f, although he's capable at anything up to 3m 2f's but with the likely gallop here being very strong, I expect he'll relish the potential stamina test over a shorter distance. He'll need to jump around very well to be in with a chance but at 10/1 he's worth a go. He's a 15/2 shot in my book and I'll be playing small/medium stakes here. I expect he'll run a good race and continue his progression over the larger obstacles.

x PyRo

1:50 Cheltenham - Barwell Bridge - 2pts @ 10/1 (WillHill)

Has the potential to make a good hurdling handicapper. He was relatively high class on the flat having reached a handicap mark of 92 in his 3 year old season and has since proved to be a decent type over hurdles. He won over 2mile at Ffos Las at the end of last year and has since run numerous good races. Barwell Bridge is the only 4 year old in the field so it may be tough for him up against this calibre of opposition in a large field but I believe he has the ability to do very well here and looks quite overpriced. He's still unexposed having only had 6 spins over hurdles, winning 1 and coming 2nd on 3 occasions. He will have no problem with the ground whether it's Good to Soft or Good.

Barwell Bridge steps up to 3 miles for the first time in his career, and the way he finishes his races means I really fancy this to help him improve even more. Even when he has been well beaten he often keeps on under pressure, this trip could have him bang on the money and ensure he'll be staying on when it matters. He often gets outpaced in the final half mile of 2m and 2m 4f contests and now that he's up against horses who won't be finishing as quickly as him I think he'll be able to outstay many of the field here, plus he potentially has a nice turn of foot over staying distances, he's just not quick enough for the NH 'sprint' trips. He's out of the Warren Greatrex yard, they seem to be in decent form of late and only bring one to Cheltenham today. Daryl Jacob is a very interesting jockey booking, he has only ridden on 2 occasions for this yard in the past, neither yielding victories. Jacob is, however, riding at the top of his game and just won the Hennessy Gold Cup 2 weeks ago, that'll surely give him a massive confidence boost and I'm sure he's a good man to have on any of your horses right about now. He doesn't seem to have great results at this course but his last ride ended up winning and I'll ignore the stats on this occasion. Barwell Bridge was fitted with a first time tongue tie last time out and that seemed to provide more improvement, they've left it on again and it looks to be another positive for a horse that's on the up and potentially very well handicapped off a mark of 135. I think he has a great chance here and should go very well. 10/1 is a great price as he's only a fair 7/1 shot in my book with claims to be even shorter. I fancy this young and unexposed horse to run a massive race against his elders and hopefully claim the winning prize money.

x PyRo

Most of this is from the last time I backed this horse..

2:25 Cheltenham - Knowhere - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (VC)

Highly talented 12 year old who on his day would be massively well in here, he doesn't have too many good performances nowadays but he still retains enough ability to go close here if coming on for his run last time out which was after a 5 month lay off. He has a great record when fresh and is a previous 2 time Grade 2 winner, including once at this course in similar conditions to that which he faces now. His highest career win came off a mark of 154 and he runs here off 138, his second lowest career mark and well below marks that he has run well off before. Knowhere's come back run was a good 3rd place behind Rustarix. He only finished 2l back despite making a couple of jumping mistakes and being headed 3 out after trying to make all. That was a good run by all accounts and he could come on from it, although previous seasons say that your best chance to catch him is first time up, but I'll take my chances.

Twiston-Davies' yard are in good order and have done well here in recent seasons, they're sure to have Knowhere tuned up and ready to put up a bold bid here, as previously said, his record fresh has been brilliant over the years and he's very well in on these terms with conditions likely to suit. If he could get his jumping right just one more time then it'll be very very tough to see him beaten as that's the only thing that has stopped him from being the force of old. He's 12 years old now but that doesn't tamper my enthusiasm, he's very good with some cut in the ground and with the weather as it stands, there is a fair chance it'll be Good to Soft, which will suit perfectly and increase his chances. He showed enough last season to suggest there could still be one or two more wins in him yet and I believe this is an ideal chance to do so. It's a tough race by all means but he looks to have a very lively chance for a yard who have won this before, coupled with a top jockey on board and ground suiting him, all of this suggests to me that he should be a lot shorter than the current 16/1 on offer. He's a 10/1 shot in my book, and I'm expecting a big run, small each-way stakes due to the type of race but he stands a lively chance.

x PyRo

That's me done.

Good luck today folks.

pelliven

nice one

argosy2006

**WINNER **

WON WELL TOO

x PyRo

thesandeman

Kewl B-)

Goldcupfav

Backed Fine Parchment nice one !! Also had a small ew on Safari Adventures! Thoughts of a forecast never even came in to my head !! Oh well still happy enough win the win and place !

gnolan

Good stuff Pyro, makes up for an annoying loss for me last night on the Colts.

D1976

Good stuff Pyro, got him at 9/1

May the good form continue

Moffo

Fine Parchment ... Fine Win

Well done again Pyro

Goldcupfav

Very unlucky with Barwell looked the winner all over just wandered around under pressure if he had of been closer to the rail he'd of won! Place money isnt bad with the guaranteed price !! Well done again cheers.

x PyRo

Cheers all.

Barwell Bridge ran a cracker, last one off the bridle and traveled like a dream. Hampered twice, most notably in the run up. The best horse came 2nd.

thesandeman

Nuttin wrong with 4/1. Keep em coming.

D1976

Good stuff Pyro

Nulty

Good going Pyro...just as regards the last race, the best horse came fourth but I know what you mean

heavyballs

Nulty wrote: »

Good going Pyro...just as regards the last race, the best horse came fourth but I know what you mean

yeah the best horse that finished the race finished 4th but wasn't the fav travelling like an absolute dream when brought down
straight into the notebook

jive

was on the winner (HUGE 2 euro minimum bet stake on betfair) got barwell bridge @ 19s pity that didnt come in!! good stuff lad ive usually rotten luck with horses glad to see my backing didnt curse you

Nulty

x PyRo wrote: »

Amazing. What a horse, he has the best attitude I've seen in a long time.

You weren't wrong here. Midnight Chase is a serious horse around Cheltenham and not discounting other tracks

x PyRo

Knowhere is off my radar now.

Midnight Chase is class, just pure class.

+12pts today.