PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

2:35 Folkstone - Midnight Haze - 2pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

Previously selection of mine when scoring easily last time out at Ludlow in a 3mile contest on Soft ground. He made the running from pillar to post and scooted home by 5 lengths, never looking likely to lose and continued his fine progression over the larger obstacles. That run was after 9 months off and I expect he could come on even more for having had that spin. Mighnight Haze has won 3 of his last 4 starts, coming 2nd on the other occasion and he has seen vast improvement since he has gone chasing and started to make the running. With no natural front runners here I am expecting he'll get the chance to make all once again, and I think he'll capitalize on it. His first win was a heavily eased 14 length success off a mark of 99 over an extended 2m 4f, he was good value for double that margin. He was then turned out 6 days later carrying a 7lb penalty, but failed to get into the lead and had to settle for 2nd place. I believe he was turned out too quickly and wasn't helped by the step back to 2m 3f but he still ran a gallant race. He wasn't seen for a further 4 months before coming back at Wincanton on very testing Heavy ground over 3m 2f, he won by a head in the end after making all of the running once again and just holding on, running off a mark of 115. He showed some decent speed for a stayer that day and I think he's very versatile trip wise, with anything from 2m4f to 3m 2f. The race I selected him in was a decent little handicap in which he ran them ragged from the front. He won off a mark of 120 and looked very good in doing so. The 2nd placed horse, Key Cutter, who was 5 lengths behind has since won off a mark of 119 when scoring at Kempton by 4.5l to frank the form of my progressive selection.

Midnight Haze now faces the toughest task of his career to date, he's running off a mark of 128 and up against class 3 horses but I believe there's a lot more to come from this fellow. He has improved over 2 stone since landing his first victory in November of last year and he could go on to notch a few more yet. He's a mighty fine jumper, although he does jump to his right, he usually jumps fluently throughout his races and really puts his opposition on the stretch from the word go. He does need to go right handed to be effective and the Folkstone track fits that bill, it also has relatively easy fences which should help too as I'm expecting he'll be able to jump these fences with even more authority than he has done in the past and really get the field under pressure. He steps back to 2m 5f here which I don't think will inconvenience him in the slightest as he has won easily at this distance before and has enough speed to be effective at it off this sort of mark. He's from the inform Kim Bailey yard who have been firing in a lot of winners of late with 8 of their last 20 runners gaining success. This is the only horse he sends out today and it's to a track that he wouldn't visit too often. Nick Scholfield takes the ride, he's a jockey I rate quite highly and he has won on board Midnight Haze before. He comes to a track that he rarely ever visits and he only has 2 rides, this being his only realistic winner. He also rarely ever rides for Kim Bailey having only had 2 for him before, 1 being a winner on this fellow and the other being a no hoper in 2008. The jockey booking looks relatively significant, although I'd say Bailey would have Jason Maguire on board if he wasn't due to ride at Catterick today also. All in all I think this is another chance for this horse to prove his worth. He has the talent, speed, stamina and ability to go very well here and he seems to have been placed in another suitable race, despite it being a tough one. I find the 6/1 price is very attractive and I had priced him up as the 4/1 favourite. Only playing small/medium stakes here as there are too many dangers to put on a large bet but I expect we'll get a good run for our money.

OutlawPete

Bad luck with Silaah Xp, Dandy Nicholls winning it anyway though with the second string.

x PyRo

Cheers Pete, bloody disaster! I was full sure he'd get past him in the final furlong but never picked up. Sir Geoffrey is hard to pass anyways but I thought with the move on Silaah from 6's into 10/3 would make him get out of the way. :pac: Proved not to be.

Midnight Haze was too slow, thought the step back in trip would suit but it done the opposite. He was outpaced!

-5pts

coughlan08

backed midnight haze aswel,very disappointed with the run,thought the drop in trip would suit aswel,not to be though.a lot fancied him..
had my first big winner today,i now know why you go for broke and try to find that big winner as the buzz is frightening.

will you be getting involved in any of the fairyhouse racing tomo..?
some super racing regardless.

Nulty

OutlawPete wrote: »

Bad luck with Silaah Xp, Dandy Nicholls winning it anyway though with the second string.

LOL

x PyRo

coughlan08 wrote: »

backed midnight haze aswel,very disappointed with the run,thought the drop in trip would suit aswel,not to be though.a lot fancied him..
had my first big winner today,i now know why you go for broke and try to find that big winner as the buzz is frightening.

will you be getting involved in any of the fairyhouse racing tomo..?
some super racing regardless.

Too much competition for the lead cost him, he just couldn't keep going so fast. If he was left alone we could of been on the winner. The annoying thing was the one that pressed him to ensure the rapid gallop is never normally a front runner, so it ruined my reading of the race.

Just seen that now, great shout. One of my mates was on it too based on the sires strike rate at the track being 2/3 and the speed the horse showed last time out before fading. The price was mental altogether. Just proves my theory that recent form is not the b-all and end all, as many think it is. Completely agree about the buzz, it's so much more satisfying to have €10 on a 25/1 winner that to have €100 on a 6/4 winner, for me anyways. You do have to go long periods without winners (as I prove!) but value punting pays off long term. Although an even money shot can be value too but it's usually not my thing. I don't focus purely on long shots as I find plenty of overpriced 3/1 to 8/1 shots but I do love my odd mental one. All Annalena being one of my favourites and the 150/1 winner I put up during the Galway festival. Only had €5 matched at 150/1 on Betfair but had a lot more on at 33's with the bookmakers, I'll never forget Coronea Lilly! Robbie McNamara is the man. :cool:

Not sure what I'll be getting stuck into tomorrow, the racing at Fairyhouse is pure class but too many short priced favourites that I find hard to oppose, I'll be having a good look anyways. Best of luck tomorrow dude, keep taking 'em to the cleaners. Don't change your approach though, if it ain't broke, don't fix it.

thesandeman

x PyRo wrote: »

Bank - 380.53pts (+280.53pts)

No selections for today, as of yet anyways.

Also, sorry for anyone who lost money on Saturday.

Just so you know youre not alone, Hugh apologised to his followers on Twitter today for his bad run.

x PyRo

I'll take that as you comparing me to the great one. :pac:

One quick one, back soon with reasoning. Just afraid of the price being swallowed up.

3:00 Fairyhouse - Zaarito - 3pts @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

Kod-box

I might wait and see if theres faller insurance offered tomorrow :pac:

x PyRo

3:00 Fairyhouse - Zaarito - 3pts @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

I'm a big fan of this highly talented 8 year old, he has speed and stamina to burn but hasn't had any luck over fences. He has managed to fall on 4 of his 8 chase starts, leading to big concerns over his jumping but surprisingly he's actually a very classy jumper 99% of the time, it's just so unlucky that he has managed to make very costly mistakes in half of his races to date. In all 17 of his career starts under rules to date he has never been sent off larger than 11/2, usually being around the 3/1 mark on average, I see the 8/1 today as massively generous and he has a much better chance than an 8/1 shot has. He fell on his chasing debut before coming a very close 2nd to Captain Cee Bee (Rated 160+) in an 18 runner Beginners Chase at Naas. He then won a 21 runner race of the same nature by 8 lengths at Leopardstown in December of 09, jumping well throughout and winning on the bridle. He then fell on his next 2 outings, going particularly well on the 2nd of those in a Grade 1 race at Leopardstown. He was tanking along going down to the last fence and about to take the lead when he fell heavily after trading at around the 1.5 mark. That was a very good race in which Weapons Amnesty finished 2nd and has since went on to win the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in very impressive fashion to beat Burton Port (Hennessy 2nd) by an easy 7 lengths. My selection was going to beat him and the field with relative ease in my opinion before coming to grief due to a sloppy jump, I'm expecting he'll make amends for that defeat today.

Zaarito then went on to score in a Novice Chase at Naas, winning by 6 lengths at odds of 4/7. It was a decent quality race, nothing spectacular in terms of opposition but he was unextended in victory yet again after putting in a relatively flawless round of jumping. He then went back into Graded company to tackle the Powers Gold Cup at this course over 2m 4f in April of this year. The ground was very testing that day, which suited, and he was once again cruising throughout the race. He took over the lead 4 out and was finally looking like he'd claim that elusive Grade 1 scalp but once again he ended up playing Russian roulette with a fence and the gun went off, he fell once again after trading at 1.14 this time around. Zaarito was then upped to 3m 1f in yet another Grade 1 contest, he stayed out the back throughout and was never put in contention, however, he was found to be 'clinically abnormal', which explained the awful run. He's now running back over 2m 1f, a trip that's ideal for him and one I expect to finally see the best of his abilities over. The Soft ground is also exactly what he wants and he has previous course experience which is handy, although it resulted in a fall but most of his runs have! There's plenty of pacemakers in the race which should help this contest turn into a stamina sapping race, which will help Zaarito as he's proven over trip further than this. Assuming he has been doing well at home then I expect a mightily good run here. He's not well in on official ratings with the favourite but he's well in in terms of the raw ability that I believe he has. He's also in receipt of 8lbs from Golden Silver and that should help matters even further, although that horse is officially rated 17lbs superior so my selection still has 9lbs to find, which I believe he could, and quite easily. He also goes well fresh and I expect he'll be fully tuned up for this before going on to greater things. He's a horse with a hell of a lot of ability and the 2010/11 NH season may finally see all the hope and promise come to fruition, especially in the jumping department, although I think he has little problems in that regard but others disagree. He just seems a very lazy animal at times and puts in the odd clanger, which costs him from showing his true abilities. He cruises through his races, looks like winning the majority of them and I finally think he'll start to put them to bed in the near future. 8/1 is an absolute gift and I priced him up as a fair 3/1 shot with the potential to be worthy of a price tag even shorter. There are many dangers in backing this selection but I'm overlooking them for the time behind and playing medium stakes at a price much too big. Here's hoping he puts in a clear round and cruises to a long overdue Graded success.

x PyRo

1:40 Lingfield - The Which Doctor - 3pts @ 7/1 (VC)

Tactically versatile 2 time course winner who has been running relatively well on a consistent basis without getting his head in front. His last win came off a mark of 85 when scoring over this 1m 2f trip at Newbury in September of 09. He's running off the same mark now and returns to a course where his form reads ; 1-1-4. 1 of those wins was over 7f while the other was over 1m. He now tackles 1m 2f for the first time at this track and I believe this is his best trip and it is the trip he has been campaigned at on his last 5 outings. The Which Doctor made a return to racing after 2 months off when coming a close up 6th of 11 on the 8th of December. He was well backed that day and I expect that connections think that career victory number 5 isn't too far around the corner. He should certainly strip fitter for having had that run and there was valid reasons that he didn't run better than his 6th position would suggest. These reasons would be partly down to a rare mistake by George Baker, who was on the horse for the first time. He sat pretty in mid-division before making a move to go 2nd a long way from home. He then hit the front on the home turn at Kempton and continued to lead until just over 1 furlong out, the horse found little when coming under pressure and I believe he needs to be produced late, thus sending him to the front so early proved costly.

The Which Doctor will be partnered by Baker again, and I expect we will see greater dividends this time around if everything goes to plan. The worry is that we won't get a truly run race as there's a distinct lack of pace in the race, however, I believe that this 5 year old gelding will be suited by a slower run race, possibly suited a lot more than the rest of the field, of which many need to run on on the back of a reasonably solid gallop. I don't think they'll get that here and if Baker plays his cards right he could well be sitting on the horse with the best turn of foot, which will be vital in a race run with little pace. He's trained by Jeremy Noseda, a trainer I hold in the highest esteem and he normally does well when coming to Lingfield. He has a 24% strike rate here from just under 400 runners and even more interestingly is that when George Baker rides for him here it has resulted in 5 wins from 6 runners, with the other coming 2nd. They only team up for this fellow today and George only has 2 runners at Lingfield, a track that he rides supremely well and knows like the back of his hand. He's the master tactician at Lingfield and hopefully he'll be continuing that highly impressive stat when riding for Noseda. I think the favourite, Dark Promise, is extremely vulnerable under a penalty and I didn't like the way she idled when hitting the front last time out. At odds shy of 2/1 I'd much rather oppose her here and I'll be doing that. Medium sized stakes at what is a very tasty price, I'd of happily taken 4/1 here but I'm getting nearly twice that, hopefully the market is confident just to add extra confidence but I'm expecting my selection to relish the return to the speedy surface at Lingfield.

x PyRo

2:05 Newbury - Nozic - 1pt e/w @ 28/1 (Bet365)

I'm taking a big chance here on this fellow as I was hoping the next time I'd see him was on soft going but he's getting Good, Good to Soft ground today, not ideal but not completely against him. He was a high class chaser for Paul Nicholls in his day and if recent runs were a true reflection of his abilities nowadays then he'd have no chance but I believe he's much better than he has been showing and is now given a fair chance by the handicapper. His last win came in a Grade 3 Chase at Wetherby in December of 08, when hammering the talented Tidal Bay by an easy 7 lengths. That was off a mark of 153 and he was deemed good enough to be rated 161 after that success. He has since came all the way down to a mark of 130, which if recapturing 80% of his old ability, would see him bang in contention here in what looks a very wide open staying chase. He's also fitted with a first time visor for his new yard (3rd run) and if having a positive effect, it could well increase his chances. Interestingly, his usual tongue strap has been kept off once again.

Nozic certainly isn't a form chance having pulled up on his last 3 starts but he does comes back to a suitable track, one in which he finished a close up 2nd to Madison Du Berlais on 1 of his 2 starts here. The other run was last time out, when he was tried over 2m 4f, a trip where he hadn't a hope in hell of getting competitive as he was up against some mightily speedy sorts for the trip. He's an out and out stayer and the return to this extended 3m 2f trip will see the best of him, if he runs to ability. So many of the opposition here are either out of form like him or in dire need of the run. He fits the former but doesn't fit the latter, having run twice in November after a 6+ month break, he'll strip much fitter for having had those runs and the drop to a class 3 event will help too. Liam Tredwell takes the ride, he's a decent jockey and does well when riding the chasers out of the Gifford yard having rode 14 winners from 77 runners, giving him a very good 18% strike rate and a small LSP of £7. The Gifford yard aren't in great form but do alright at the course. This is a bit of a shot in the dark but the visor could well get him interested again, along with the trip and course being ideal. The 28/1 available looks very big, he has moved into 22's in a couple of places and I had him down as a fair 16/1 shot. He's a decent each way price and worth minimum stakes in a race where many horses have a lot to prove and class could pave the way, he has bundles of that, just hasn't shown it for a while.

x PyRo

5:55 Kemtpon - Duff - 2pts @ 6/1 (WillHill)

Speedy front runner who took this race in 2008 when scoring relatively easily. He's a previous Group winner and done well in patches throughout 2010, coming 4th in a Group 2 and coming 2nd in a Group 3. It was ultimately a disappointing season but he has an ideal chance to end things on a high note with the weights being significantly in his favour here based on official ratings. He's rated as a 110 animal and only has to carry 9st 2lbs, getting a couple of pounds from the horses I consider to be his biggest challengers. The drop in grade to Listed level is also a plus and his form on the AW reads ; 1-1-2. So he definitely handles conditions and although the draw could of been kinder, he's not too badly placed in stall 6, so I'm hoping he'll get out and race very handily, if not make all of the running. The Kempton track also favoures front runners so I'm hoping that once/if he hits the front that he'll be able to steal a couple of lengths on the field, this will require a very smart move by Kevin Manning but he has done just that on board this fellow before, and it paid dividends.

Duff will not have things his own way up front, which is the main thing putting me off a bigger but he has the ability to win when not getting the lead but I feel he will as I'm sure they know it's key to getting this fellow to gain victory. Edward Lynam wouldn't come over to Kemtpon too often at all, and has only done so on one occasion. He brought over 2 horses that day, a maiden and this fellow. He does that yet again here and I expect we could see him leaving with a winner, with my selection the most likely in my opinion. Kevin Manning is a very good jockey too and he hasn't been on board this fellow for a fair while now. He has won on board him on 2 occasions, coming 2nd once and unplaced on the other 3 outings. He's key to getting success here as it'll be no easy task with the animals in opposition here but I believe the Group winning 7 year old holds the most solid claims out of the whole field, and he's a wonderful price at 6/1. I expect to see a brave front running race from Duff and hopefully he can get that victory that has eluded him since October of last year. He's a high class animal and should excel in these conditions and on these terms. Relatively small bet considering his chances, but the potential threat to his lead does worry me but he's still in with a mighty good chance. He's a 7/2 shot in my book and I find it hard to see who could step up to the plate and beat him on these terms, but we'll find out come 6pm today.

TheMilkyPirate

x PyRo wrote: »

3:00 Fairyhouse - Zaarito - 3pts @ 8/1 (PaddyPower)

Golden silver would be my banker of the day, I'll take you on pyro! :pac:

CiaranC

baraca wrote: »

Golden silver would be my banker of the day, I'll take you on pyro! :pac:

Well done

Kod-box

Happy to see Zaarito jump well anyway, will come on from that run, hopefully see good things from him this season

x PyRo

The Which Doctor came 2nd, Baker gave too much respect to the fav and let her get first run, big mistake. Traded @ 2.08

Nozic was terribly hampered when still going well on the bridle. Would of placed at least imo. The visor really perked him up again and he's one to keep an eye on. Traded @ 20 and would of went much shorter, his BSP was 47.68.

Zaarito went well, happy with that. Didn't have the pace of the winner but should come on big time for that, lovely to see him jump a clear round. Traded @ 2.02

Duff came 3rd, traded @ 1.55 and looked the likely winner for a fair while. Just not good enough in the end.

Plenty of good trading opportunities there, going to take a closer look into maximizing profits with in running lays as this happens so often.

Bank - 365.53pts (+265.53pts)

Getting close to my 350pt stopping point. Too many placing and not enough winning, need to change that asap.

argosy2006

The magic will return i'v no doubt

OutlawPete

don't even ta;k to me about horses

x PyRo

Tell me about it. :pac:

1:20 Exeter - Darn Hot - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (PaddyPower)

Very game Mare who improved since being switched to fences having failed to win on any of her 7 hurdle outings. On her 6 completed starts over fences, her form reads ; 6-2-4-1-2-3. She's ultra consistent and could have turned a couple of those defeats into victories if it wasn't for some untidy jumping. She's usually one who needs a run to be fully wound up and she made a re-appearance over 3m at Huntingdon on the 10th of November. She ran extremely well for a long way, traded at 1.71 in running and looked likely to at least finish very close up. In the end she finished in 3rd place in a 5 runner race, 24l behind the winner, after making a bad mistake at the last due to exhaustion. She didn't see out the 3m trip very well and now steps back to an extended 2m 3f trip at a track much more to her liking.

Darn Hot was just touched off in this race last year in an exciting 3 way finish. She ran a cracker to come within a nose of Pavillon Bleu, a horse she had been beaten by on her previous run by 33 lengths in what was her first run of that season. She clearly improves for her runs and she showed that day that the track suits her very well indeed as she jumped with more authority than is normally the case. She now returns to this course which has me interested again. Her mark is 8lbs higher now than it was then but the race is likely to be run in a much more suitable fashion, as there are so many front runners here so I'm expecting a truly run race. There should be a fair gallop from the outset and this will play right into the hands of Darn Hot, who usually finishes out her races very well and has a decent bit of toe when needed. Her jockey takes off a valuable 3lb due to his claim and his record suggests he's not a bad man to have on board, even though I've never heard of him. He has been on board her on all of her 16 career starts and should know exactly how to get a good tune out of the Mare, although I'd much prefer if there was a top jockey on her back for a change. 10/1 looks very generous to me, her stable are going well of late and they're 3 from 3 at Exeter in 2010 with 14/1, 10/1 and 15/2 winners. Very impressive and it'll hopefully continue. This is a tough race by all means but I think my selection has a very good chance of running into a place at least. She'll like the ground, love the trip, love how the race will be run and should relish the return to the course. She should also come on so much for that run last time out and I'm expecting a very good result here. She's only a 6/1 shot in my book but due to her stable being relatively unfashionable, I don't see the price fluctuating much, unless connections get stuck in. Decent each way stakes here at a very decent price.

thesandeman

Anyone know a cure for Placeitis?

x PyRo

Get the shotgun imo.

:pac:

thesandeman

You mean shoot the winner?? :-P

x PyRo

Internet is down for me at the moment.

Sending this off my phone. Hopefully I'll get back on soon to go through the cards.

I will be backing the Gifford horse in the 3:20 at Ascot. Currently 12/1 and looks to have very solid claims. I'll be back with reasoning I hope. I'll be staking 2.5pts e/w on him.

x PyRo

Phew, it came back!

Darn Hot stayed on like a dream, but her race was run at that stage. Not quick enough for the trip. Needs a few more furlongs to be fully effective. She was hampered too, which makes it even more annoying. When your luck's not in...

3:20 Ascot - Ballybach - 2.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

I've been waiting for this fellow to be stepped up in trip and now I get my wish, I'm just hoping the meeting doesn't get called off as there's an inspection in the morning. The horse itself is a very nice looking 6 year old who I think will make a nice chaser in time but looks well treated here off a mark of 125. He's unexposed having only had 8 career runs, 6 of those coming over hurdles and he is yet to taste victory. He comes here on the back of a very impressive seasonal debut over 2m 4f at this course. He was sent off as a 14/1 shot in a similarly hot contest and ran a very gallant 2nd, just fading to cope with the winner who proved to be a much too quick for him in the home stretch. That horse was called Like A Hurricane, he's from the recently rejuvenated Alan King yard and should make a decent type. Considering the wretched time that King had in the 09/10 season, I think that horse could prove to be a very good form yardstick for my selection here. That was Ballybach's first run for nearly 8 months. I doubt he was fully wound up for it and I expect we should see more of him once the season progresses. He's up 5lbs for that run but I expect he could still be very well in on the ratings and has the ability to be much better in time, potentially has at least another 10lbs to find and could begin that progression starting here.

The key to all this will be how Ballybach handles the jump to 2m 6f, it's not a huge leap in trip and he should get 3m in time, but I believe it could unlock all the doors for him as he seems more of a stayer than a speedster. He likes to grind it out when he makes his move but always seems to get outpaced in the run in. I'm hoping the extra distance will leave more of an emphasis on stamina, and less so on speed, although he does come out very well on the speed figures but I pass little heed on them. I doubt there'll be any problem in him staying the trip as he did tackle 2m 5f at Plumpton last year on softish ground. He was going best of all in my opinion before coming to grief at the last hurdle. The ground today is currently Good to Soft, Good in places. That's perfect for Ballybach as he handles that ground with ease, although I'd imagine that the quicker it is, the better. He's out of the Gifford yard, one I keep an eye on regularly. They're going good enough since the return of the NH season and I expect results will get better throughout the season. This is their best chance of a winner today in my opinion, as the only other horse they bring to Ascot is in a very tough contest. Liam Treadwell takes the ride, he has been on board on 7 of his 8 career runs and seems to get on very well with the horse. He has a very good record at Ascot, with 5 wins, 3 2nds and 10 3rds from 39 runs, giving him a 13% win rate but an even more impressive stat is his LSP of £35, although he has had 33/1, 20/1 and 10/1 winners here! At least we know he's prone to landing the bigger priced ones and I'm hoping that could happen again here. Ballybach seems to love it at Ascot. He has run here on 3 occasions, each time running very well without getting that little bit of luck needed. Assuming all is well today, I expect he could get his first career win. There are a few at the head of the market that warrant a lot of respect but I think he'll push them all the way. Dynaste has some mightily impressive form from his run last time out but I feel he's significantly too short to get involved with and I'm more than happy to take him on. 12/1 is massive each way value for this fellow, given how impressive he ran on his seasonal debut, and I expect he should come on from that run to improve even more. 15/2 was the price I had deemed his true market price and I think he has a great chance to grab 1 of the 4 available places, hopefully 1st place. Maximum each way stakes for me here, hopefully it proves worthwhile.

FOXFISH1

Thx PyRo
Ballybach now at 14/1 on bet365.

thenutflush

Haven't backed a horse in ages but going to get on this. 14/1 now on pp also.

Nulty

Reports are that Ascot is likely to be called off

Nulty

Ascot is abandoned

x PyRo

Probably for the best!