PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Pj! wrote: »

To get back on topic, keep at it Pyro.

Losing runs all part of the game.

Cheers Pj, I've had many of them but this one has been severe. There has been a few winners but so many losers since October. I find it so much tougher to get winners on ground that isn't Good or better. I'm thinking of ending my betting year in October from now on if the ground starts to get worse and as the flat ends/NH begins. Really fecks up form lines (imo) and ruins my chances of getting results, which ends up costing me a fair few quid! Although I'm due a mighty hot run now so I'm going to hang on before relaxing it a bit. The last month with little good racing is a killer though, can't imagine avoiding it for long times again.

Ah well, we live in hope. Cheers for the message, hope you've had more luck that I have of late.

JONJO THE MISER

Fecking idiots on the tv, oh yeah im on t.v:rolleyes:

x PyRo

Ante-post Cheltenham bet for me now.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - Pandorama - 5pts @ 20/1 (WillHill)

I'll be back with reasoning at some stage.

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

Ante-post Cheltenham bet for me now.

Cheltenham Gold Cup - Pandorama - 5pts @ 20/1 (WillHill)

I'll be back with reasoning at some stage.

I'd be going against you on this one.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

I'd be going against you on this one.

For how much would you lay him @ 20/1?

UrbanSea

Zero,that's like backing at 1/20 shot,stupid game to play.

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Zero,that's like backing at 1/20 shot,stupid game to play.

Its a game of opinions. What price would you say he should be?

Nulty

Meade has said he wont run unless theres rain.

Asked about an assault on the Gold Cup, Meade - whose winner is 14-1 from 33-1 with Totesport for the Cheltenham championship - said: "We can dare to dream after that, but I wouldn't run him on anything better than yielding. He'll come back here for the Hennessy in February and we'll take it one race at a time. "Paul did the right thing when he pulled him up at Newbury, but he did it very well today and he does go very well left-handed."

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

Its a game of opinions. What price would you say he should be?

Never mentioned the price in my original post. Price is probably right. Think your 50/1 on him is a bargain now deinitely

Nulty

greetings wrote: »

Never mentioned the price in my original post. Price is probably right. Think your 50/1 on him is a bargain now deinitely

Everything has its price. Its not a matter of finding the most likely winner IMO.

Sry Pyro, wrecking your thread :P

x PyRo

No skin off my beautiful nose.

Back with reasoning for this one, really fancy his chances and I'm afraid the price won't be around for too long.

2:30 Leopardstown - Away We Go - 2.5pts e/w @ 40/1 (VC - 5 places, 1/4 odds)

OutlawPete

Impressed with the way Quito De La Roque finished.

x PyRo

Finished like a train alright but wasn't too taken by him overall. Not sure any superstars came out of that race, I still think Meade's will end up as the best horse that lined out there. May just need to go right handed and have better ground than that to be fully effective. I'll be keeping an eye on him for sure. It ended up being a tough day to try and make the running, never mind throwing in numerous poor jumps too. Threw in some fine leaps as well, but all of them seen him go right. Annoying!

2:30 Leopardstown

A typically wide open contest in which it's very tough to find the winner but I think it'll pay dividends to side with horses who'll see out the trip well, handle the testing conditions and especially horses who don't carry a shed load of weight in what should be a stamina sapping contest. I'll end up having a couple of punts here as I feel there is some excessively overpriced animals in the betting at the moment and the bookmakers go 10/1 the field, which shows how open this is. 28 runners are currently listed to go to post, with 20 of them available at 20/1 or more. It should be a very interesting race to say the least, especially on this heavy ground.

The first of my selections is Away We Go, from the Timothy Cleary yard. He's a steadily progressive chaser who comes here after a recent outing over hurdles on the 13th of this month. That run was on the back of a 4 month break and should have him flying fit to make a brave bid at what would be, by far, his biggest success to date. He has won 2 races from 7 runs over fences and came 2nd on another outing. The first of those wins came at Tramore, a right handed, undulating and sharp track, over 2m 6f. That was his debut run over fences and he managed to beat his 14 rivals despite some a couple of novice mistakes. He looked like a relentless galloper that day (on Good to Firm ground) and I believe that a 3 mile spin at the flat and galloping track of Leopardstown should prove an ideal test for him, although he was shocking on his only appearance at the course, when running over hurdles in January of '09 but I'm willing to overlook that and base it purely on running badly on the day, as I doubt the nature of the course was against him. After gaining success at Tramore in May he was then off until November, when returning to run at Limerick in a decent 13 runner chase. He finished 2.5 lengths behind Paddy Pub, who finished 4th in this race last year. That was a mighty fine effort on his second outing over fences and it was the first time he encountered 3 miles in his career. He saw out the race in very good fashion on similarly testing ground to that of which he will face today and I think a similar "plodding along" fashion will be required to run well here, and I feel he fits that bill perfectly, although his record over shorter distances suggests he doesn't lack a bit of toe when it's required.

Away We Go is a very fluent jumper at the best of times and I like the way he pings the majority of his fences. He has made the odd silly mistake on occasion but he's still only relatively new to the chasing game having had 7 career starts in this code. He is tactically versatile too, which gives him multiple options in such a big field and I always like horses who don't need to be ridden in a particular fashion, although he tends to have a much better chance of winning when racing quite handily. There doesn't seem to be many who like to plod along from the front and the option is certainly there for him should they choose that tactic, however, I don't really horses making all over staying distances as I think they blow up more often than those who need to be waited with but that's just my experiences, this horse tends to keep battling on but eventually loses out to horses with much more finishing speed than he has, possibly this will have less of an effect on this ground/trip combination and help his chances of holding on. He's from a small yard who only have 4 horses listed at the moment but he seems to have done well with this fellow and I'm very interested in why he ran over hurdles on his seasonal reappearance, I believe he thinks the horse could go very well in his next handicap chase and wanted to keep his rating down (won his last chase, now 13lbs higher). However, it could be something as simple as having no other alternatives but I'm always interested in what I'd consider an odd tactic to run him just 2 weeks before he has a relatively big entry, especially as the horse has a good record when fresh. Cleary said after his win at Tramore that "he should make a fine big strapping chaser and I think he'll go places.", very positive comments to say the least and I tend to agree with him completely, he also eluded to the fact that "he prefers a little more ease in the ground and in fairness to him, he's versatile.", another statement that I completely agree with, he get a fair bit of ease today and that versatility leaves me with little concerns over ground, trip or how his race needs to be run. I know very little about the trainer, nor the jockey but he seems to be decent enough and takes off a handy 3lbs to leave Away We Go with a relatively low riding weight of 10st 11lbs, which is always a plus in my book over staying distances. He also rode the horse for the first time on his reappearance this month, which is yet another interesting move in my opinion. He has only ridden on one other occasion for the yard, a 3rd place from 18 runners (on a 25/1 shot) in a hot handicap at Clonmel, a repeat of that here would put me in a good mood! The horse himself is used to going right handed mostly, with all of his wins coming right handed and his 2 worst career runs coming left handed. He has only run twice going left handed (over obstacles) and has to deal with this again, although I see now obvious reasons why he ran so badly on those days as he jumped well, just seemed to run out of steam so I'd rather blame the results on it being an off day, not the fact that it was left handed. Plus he jumps well and travels well enough to handle going either way. All in all, I think he's hugely overpriced here at 40/1 and should be no more than 20's at best. With 5 places being paid and 1/4 the odds, I feel compelled to have a maximum each way bet as I believe the horse has enough scope for improvement and conditions suiting sufficiently enough to see him run a cracker of a race. It's a massively wide open contest and his price is purely based on the small yard factor in my opinion, not the horses true abilities and suitability to the race conditions. It's a lottery by all means, but one I'll happily play with significant stakes in the hope of smashing the jackpot.

I'm not going into too much detail for my next selection but I think Mouse Morris' charge, Venalmar, could also have things sufficiently in his favour here. He was formerly a decent type over hurdles, winning 2 from 7 and coming 2nd on 3 occasions. His highest point was probably when he finished a quarter of a length behind Fiveforthree in the Grade 1 Ballymore Novices Hurdle at the Cheltenham festival in March. He ran a cracking race that day, especially considering the ground probably wasn't his optimum as he likes it very soft, having won twice on heavy ground, both in fine fashion. He had one more race over hurdles after Cheltenham, he ended up being virtually pulled up in a Grade 1 at Punchestown despite looking a massive threat 2 out, but something obviously went badly wrong as he wasn't seen out again until November of '09, a full 18+ months later. He had 2 uninspiring runs on his first 2 starts over fences, beaten by 68 and 70 lengths respectively. He was then back on holiday until November of this year, where he made a decent return to finish 3rd of 17 in a beginners chase at at Navan over 2m 4f. He ran within 3.5 lengths of the winner despite making a very bad mistake at the second last which possibly cost him enough momentum to stop him actually winning the race. He was then turned out exactly 1 month later at Galway, in a good quality chase over 2m 6f at Galway. Once again, the ground probably wasn't soft enough for his liking but he put in a brave bid, racing prominent throughout before struggling to go with the winner, Jessies Dream, who has since won a Grade 1 contest to massively frank the form. My selection jumped quite well throughout and although he probably wouldn't get as close to the 2 ahead of him again, he ran well enough to consider him in with a very good chance in this race. His next run was uninspiring, he made a mistake at the first, followed by a couple more mistakes later on after losing a shoe and he was pulled up after being sent off as the 9/4 favourite in a good contest over 3m at Fairyhouse, with conditions suiting perfectly. I'm willing to ignore that run and look at the positives of the previous 2, in which he ran to the standards of a chaser who could well improve into being a decent sort. He jumps well, travels well and should be suited by a stamina sapping 3m at Leopardstown. He also encounters a left handed course again, having only raced once over fences when going this way. He has won going both ways but done especially well left handed over hurdles, hopefully that comes to the fore over fences now too and he feels no ill-effects of his mistakes last time out. The heavy ground is also ideal and the race is likely to be run to suit. Morris has also won this race before and Barry Geraghty is on board today, yet another positive as he's a jockey I really rate. I think the 14/1 available is very generous and he's worth a small each way bet, he's not as good value as my main selection but he's worth a saver, especially with 5 places available. He looks to be an each way bet to nothing if showing up as I expect he can do. He carries 10st 7lbs, his lowest riding weight ever and something that should be handy over this trip, at which he is unexposed. Hopefully he'll do himself justice as he's a potentially nice type over fences but he's bordering on 9 years old now so there's not too much time, however, he has only run 14 times in his career and is still relatively unexposed for a horse of his age. I expect big runs from both of my selections, hopefully a 1-2 with the Cleary horse edging out a thrilling finish in what should be a very interesting race, although they'll probably both fall now that I've given them my kiss of death but putting money on their backs.

Selections ;

Away We Go - 2.5pts e/w @ 40/1 (VC)
Venalmar - 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

x PyRo

Back with reasoning soon..

1:25 Wolverhampton - Absa Lutte - 2pts @ 16/1 (VC)

Good luck today folks.

x PyRo

Didn't get online for long enough to do a write up on Absa Lutte, that one didn't run well after being hampered at the start of the race.

Away We Go traveled well, jumped well but didn't stay on the ground. Disappointing.

The other one was never involved.

Poor day again, can't get anything right lately but that's life. On we go to tomorrow.

UrbanSea

Chin up, I don't really bother even betting during the jumps.Hence the postponement of my horrible log

UrbanSea

Speaking of horrible logs,I'm posting whilst on the toilet.

thesandeman

At least you have a toilet. I had to go to the bookies to have a crap :-(
Turned out to be a winning crap for a change though :-)

jive

don't worry lad my log is still making yours look like heaven. i will continue to do crap so that you still look like a don

x PyRo

Hopefully things will change. I really dislike the jumps.

Quick one for tomorrow in case the price disappears, although I doubt it will.

2:45 Lingfield - Miami Gator - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

Form behind Final Drive looks solid, that one has since won twice in his subsequent 2 runs. They met over 1m 1f at Wolverhampton which isn't my selections optimum trip. He now steps back to 1m at a course where he has won previously over 7f and also run well over 6f here. He likes to plow along from the front and comes up against a field full of hold up horses, which should play into his hands as he can quicken very well from the front, especially if given a soft lead. He loves the all weather, he's consistent and progressive plus he's still only a 3 year old, so he may not be finished his progression yet. His run last time out was also probably a career best and it's mighty fine form in a race like this and I think he'll prove hard to beat. 6/1 looks a gift, he's only 7/2 in my book and if he can get a good run on Tevez then I think he will win, as that horse is the main danger in my opinion. Luke Morris is on board Miami Gator again which is another plus and he's a jockey I rate very highly, especially on the all weather. This one has a good chances here and could prove hard to catch if all goes well.

x PyRo

Might be back with a couple more tomorrow morning if I wake up in time, shattered at the moment.

Done a small interest treble for tomorrow..

1:35 Lingfield - Forty Proof @ 7/2
2:00 Leopardstown - Mikael D'Haguenet @ 8/13
6:40 Kempton - Anne Of Kiev @ 5/2

1pt @ 24.35/1 (Bet365)

UrbanSea

Did you take prices ya? Forty Proof drifting like a barge. Mikael on the slide too,8/11

thesandeman

Ouch. Close one :-(

x PyRo

Miami Gator just failed in 2nd. Beaten by the smallest of distances. Typical.

The treble was lol bad.

-4pts today.

UrbanSea

Unlucky,was close.

NaiveMelodies

Think i'm gonna go with Anne of Kiev Pyro, not sure how big I'll go in though, would it only have been a 1 point pick for yourself?

x PyRo

I'd plow into her if I wasn't so afraid to trust my own judgement at the moment. I can't call anything right but if I was having a single it'd be bordering on the 5pt mark, assuming I could get the 5/2 that was around last night.

The only worry I'd have is that she usually needs time between her race and she's turned out here quickly again. However, the course is perfect for her and she ran well here over 5f on her only 2 starts here. There's a long run in at Kempton which is perfect and she'll love the 6 furlongs around here I reckon. Form from last time out has been franked impressively enough too. So many things in her favour here and I can't see past her but I'm such a jinx at the moment.

NaiveMelodies

Cheers man, very thorough reasoning as ever! 40 euro bet for me @ 2/1. Similar bet on Chilli Green too in the 7.10, like his chances.

Woddle

Unlucky xpyro whenever I go against you you normally come in and I'm against Anne of kiev, I think both Ray of joy and Quasi have a huge shout but I can't decide between them so I won't be betting.

x PyRo

No problem Stevo, hope to hell she does the business even though I haven't a cent on. I just like being right sometimes. :pac: Haven't had much of that lately! She should eventually be Listed class and she's progressing at a very good rate of knots. Has a mighty turn of foot too and always finished out her races well. Hope she does it again for you. There was some discussion on another forum about that Chilli Green horse, the Sire has a brilliant record on the AW over 7f and a mile so hopefully it'll go and win again. I wouldn't back nor lay it but that Street Power has a massive chance imo, so that means your one has less to worry about. :pac:

Cheers Woddle, keep opposing me please. I backed Ray Of Joy last time out, she's a lovely type too and you'll get a good run for your money I'd say. Best of luck with them and if AOK doesn't win, one of those two will I'd say.