PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

Best of luck with them and if AOK doesn't win, one of those two will I'd say.

See what I'm saying! Complete jinx. Couldn't see Perfect Act turning around form with AOK and Ray Of Joy from a while back, especially at Kempton.

Unlucky lads.

NaiveMelodies

Ah well, good turn of foot from Perfect Act there..
Hope Chilli Green can do the biz!

Woddle

x PyRo wrote: »

See what I'm saying! Complete jinx.

Street power in the last

Hondo75

Happy New Year Pyro,been following this thread on and of since feb and past on tips to me da and a few mates over the last 8 months so thanks for the winners and sure have forgotton all about the losers... .Cheers lad

x PyRo

Cheers Hondo and thanks for the message. Pity the last few months have been horrific but the new year will hopefully bring a change of luck, it'd want to! Have a good new year yourself, I can't wait to hit the pub later.

One for today. Very quick write up.

2:30 Lingfield - Radiator Rooney - 1.5pts e/w @ 11/1 (Betfred)

Frustrating type who has lots of ability on his day but often finds little when push comes to shove. However, his run on his penultimate start would put him in with a very good chance here if he could replicate that effort. He finished 3.75 lengths behind Sleepy Blue Ocean over 5 furlongs at Wolverhampton. My selection met trouble in running that day before running on well inside the final furlong to get up for 4th place. He was then stepped up to 6f, which seemed ideal, but he was given a pretty easy time of it I thought and never got involved but wasn't too far away. He now stays racing at Lingfield, where he has won over 5f here and placed on 6 occasions from 12 other outings. He does go well here at the best of times and I think the likely quick run race should suit him as he likes to come from behind to strike late on. He'll require some luck in running but he's well handicapped off a mark of 52 and has Amy Ryan on board taking off a further 3lbs, to leave him 6lbs lower than his last polytrack win and 19lbs lower than when winning over 5f here back in '06. Pat Morris trains him and his yard seem to be running reasonably well of late, this is the only fellow they send out today and there has been a few quid about for him since early morning. I think the 11/1 could be a tad too big and I had priced him at around the 7/1 mark. If he gets himself together then he should place off this mark and go pretty close if getting the breaks required. Hopefully he will!

x PyRo

Meh, modest 5th.

In the last two at Lingfield I like..

3:00 - Thoughtsofstardom @ 6/1
3:30 - The Magic of Rio @ 11/2

Haven't a cent on either so lets see how they run now! No doubt they'll win.

argosy2006

ITS TIME TO KNOCK THAT WALL YOU'VE HIT

OutlawPete

x PyRo wrote: »

In the last two at Lingfield I like..

3:00 - Thoughtsofstardom @ 6/1

On this myself XP, fear the fav though on his win here, clocked a good time and didn't need to dig too deep to do it, but Luke was on board that day and so may just not be as good.

Think TOS has a chance for sure, especially with Catlin up. If he reproduce anything close to his Folkstone run, he should be in the shake-up.

Good luck and well done on the thread for the year.

If next year brings even half the points profit you have shown this year, we'll all be more than happy to follow your selections for another 12 months.

Happy New Year

naughto

Thoughtsofstardom @ 6/1 came third had him ew

x PyRo

Cheers lads, hopefully 2011 brings some more good times, and less of the bad times since October. Really struggled lately and I'm not sure why! So many highs and lows though. Cheveton @ 16's in the Ayr Bronze Cup was one of my best payouts, paid for many a night out and more! Losing a wedge on Blessed Biata in October wasn't nice though.

Onwards and upwards we go, cheers for all the support folks, it has been a great year on the gambling front and I'm looking forward to more of it come 2011.

Closing Bank for 2010 - 329.53pts (+229.53pts)

Pity I've dropped over 70 points since my high point but that's gambling. Plenty of poor calls lately and a few decent ones. I'll be continuing off the same bank as I'm not withdrawing anything until I reach the 500 mark. I haven't made one single deposit throughout the year which is nice. Makes a change!

Now, off to the pub I go in a little while. All the best folks and many thanks for all the comments throughout the year, top people. 4,150 posts (Although I've a lot of them!) and 170,000 odds views says it all. Madness!

Also sorry to anyone who followed the crap I've put up in the last couple of months. :-(

Pj!

Great stuff x Pyro.

Have a good 2011.

thesandeman

Enjoy dude. Happy New Year.

Moffo

Happy New Year Pyro....... New Years Resolution ... Back to Laying !!

Nulty

Happy new year pyro-maniac

UrbanSea

Never said happy new year,still looking through the cards?

x PyRo

Cheers everyone and same to yourselves, I've sobered up now.

I'll be back with reasoning on this one, the price will disappear soon imo.

3:00 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)

UrbanSea

11/1 now lawl

x PyRo

:pac:

3:00 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)

Talented mare on her day who loves racing around Kempton, having won here on 4 occasions, including 2 over this flying 5 furlongs. She needs a very quickly run race to be at her best and I feel the numerous pace setters in the field could set it up perfectly for her, assuming she comes back to something like her best. She switched yards recently and made her debut start for the Michael Mullineaux stable when finishing 9th of 12 at Wolverhampton. That was after a 4 month lay off and she only finished 4 lengths off the winner, having been hampered at the start. She can win from behind but is most effective when sitting in behind the pace, which she never had a chance of doing last time out after that interference. She was also denied a clear run just over 1f out which certainly didn't help matters and I believe she should come on ten fold for that run. Absa Lutte is now rated as a 75 animal, and that looks a pretty attractive mark, given that she placed off 79 on the turf (she's much better on AW) and she's now just 1lb higher than her last C&D win. Her jockey, Joesph Young, takes off another valuable 7lbs from his claim, effectively leaving her to run off a mark of 68, which has her very well in, in my opinion. Young is a decent jockey despite his lack of experience and good value for his claim, he also has a decent record on the all weather in his relatively short career, having won on board 3 of his 27 rides, with a further 6 placing. His only ride at Kemtpon was also for Mullineaux, in which he finished 2nd, so hopefully he atones for that here, by gaining victory.

Interestingly, Mullineaux is making the 350+ mile round trip to bring Absa Lutte to the location of her greatest successes and I think that speaks volumes. He only brings the one to Kempton and has only had 25 runners here since having his first in '01. I'm hinging my hopes on the fact that he's got her in tip-top condition after that debut run at Wolverhampton, and now thinks that she needs to return to Kempton to get things back on track. The slow going at Wolverhampton wouldn't of helped her either and the Kempton surface is obviously ideal. She's perfectly drawn in stall 7 and right beside the likely pace setter, Love You Louis. There are a few more speed angles in the race but I think he's the most likely of them to set it, as he's most effective when doing so. I'm hoping that Mullineaux's charge will keep relatively close order on the pace before pouncing late on, if she's good enough. She pulled very hard last time out as well, which didn't help at all and with such a good gallop virtually assured, I can't understand how she opened at 20's (which I missed) and is now still available at 11/1. I've already snapped up 16's at around 10pm, which is an unbelievable price in my opinion. If she runs her race and retains her ability then I can't see her not finishing out of the top 3, plus there's only 9 runners so it's nearly a perfect each way betting race. The Racing Post's "Spotlight Verdict" has also made her their main selection, so I'm obviously looking at it similarly to them and I fully agree. It'll be mighty tough for her contenders here if she's out to win and on song as she has a lot of ability on the back of a strong pace and she seems very well handicapped on all known form. I marked her up as a fair 6/1 shot, way shorter than what I got her at and I believe it's a much truer reflection of her chances. Relatively big each way bet for me here at a price that I can't ignore. Please don't let Hugh Taylor pick her too!

UrbanSea

Hi Pyro

UrbanSea

Ano,looks a hard race. Those all weather handicaps are awfully hard to call,but value to be had.

x PyRo

Hey G, you're dead right there. Plenty of value to be had on the AW, but it's just so hard to find with the inconsistencies of form lines. I've been making some serious dough from the selective laying of short priced horses on it. I just don't log it in my laying thread as I don't like posting stuff minus reasoning and I'm so caught for time nowadays, which means I've barely left the pub in a few weeks. :pac:

Hopefully Absa Lutte does the job now, I really think she has massive claims to win here, never mind place but the ones I'm very confident on usually do crap lately. Fingers crossed.

UrbanSea

Hopefully,would be a nice one

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Absa Lutte now 7/1.
Why didn't I back it when I was awake all night?-.-

thesandeman

Had to take 8s but only 8 runners now. Hope nothing else pulls out.
Hugh is on hols so you have no worries about his hex lol.

thesandeman

Got the place anyhow. Profit is profit B-)

budgemook

thesandeman wrote: »

Got the place anyhow. Profit is profit B-)

It is indeed, fiver more than I had this morning. Saw this late so only got 7's

x PyRo

Glad she placed but mighty pissed off. She was clearly out for another jog, the jockey went so easily on her throughout and didn't even raise the whip. Frustrating to say the least but a positive start to 2011 and probably my first winning day in a long time.

+4.80pts on the day, including a 15p R4.

Woddle

Hi xpyro, I'm fairly sure your a Jake the snake fan (could be wrong), just thought you'd like to know
he is running tomorrow in Kempton at 5:05 and looks to have found a good chance after a nice break.

x PyRo

I don't think I ever selected him dude. Might of been Coughlan?

5:35 Kempton - Brave Prospector - 3pts @ 5/2 (Bet365)

This isn't usually a price I'd be too intent on getting involved with but he looks to have a massive chance of gaining his first victory for his new yard. He's now 6 years old but still retains plenty of ability, as shown when placing over this 6 furlong trip at Lingfield on debut for Jane Chapple-Hyam, having moved from her ex-husband's yard, oddly enough. Brave Prospector was relatively lightly raced for his former yard in 2010, only appearing 3 times before moving on. He has since run twice, shaping well on both occasions, possibly unlucky twice but he was definitely unlucky when last seen. The first of those runs, at Lingfield, was at Listed level, where he was sent off as a 5/1 shot on his all weather debut. He ran a creditable 3rd behind the progressive, Hitchens. My selection was forced to make his move on the outside of the field, possibly losing some ground in the process due to that move. It wasn't a race ruining factor but I think that losing any ground against that calibre of opposition proves detrimental and he could of done a lot better if he didn't have to go so wide. The next run, over 7f at Kempton, is the one I'm interested in. He was racing at Listed level again, in a high class 13 runner field, but got no luck in running once again, having been denied a clear run on multiple occasions when trying to make his move from the rear of the field. He seemed full of running that day and looked to enjoy the track/surface, so I believe he's worth pursuing with for a while yet, especially now that he's running in a class 4 "conditions stakes".

Brave Prospector is also very well in at the weight here, as he's officially rated as a 102 animal and only faces one horse on "proper" terms, that horse is Piscean, who I consider to be a much better horse at the likes of Lingfield and Wolverhampton. He will also be un-suited by the potentially slower gallop that we could see here, and I think that'll play into the hands of Jane Chapple-Hyam's charge, who has a very good turn of foot when on a going day. The benefit of having only 5 rivals is also huge in my opinion, plus the only time he faced a single figure field, he won, in decent style too. Jamie Spencer gets the leg up today, he's a jockey I can't make head nor tail of, as he's so good on occasion, then terrible on others. However, he's the king in tactical races and whatever way this is run, you can be sure that he'll have his mount ready to pounce, whether the horse can is another question but I believe he can and will. Spencer has a mighty 50% strike rate when riding for this yard at Kempton, with 4 winners from 8 rides. He gets on well with the horse, having won on him before and placed on board at Group 3 level in '09. He will hopefully ride one of his better races today and gain another victory on the talented, Brave Prospector. I think he'll take all of the beating here and has a golden opportunity to gain his 4th career win and his first on the all weather. 5/2 looks a massive price, given that he's only a 5/4 shot in my book and clearly the one to beat. There are a couple of dangers but even at their best, they've a fair bit to find with this relatively lightly raced 6 year old. Medium stakes for me and I'm very tempted to make him a maximum bet but I'll air on the side of caution for once and resist. Here's hoping he'll cruise to an easy win, but it doesn't always go like that, unfortunately.

coughlan08

x PyRo wrote: »

I don't think I ever selected him dude. Might of been Coughlan?

nope not me either.if i was to have a bet in that race though it would have to be Vhujon ridden by Martin Lane..

will go with brave prospector also..3.8 on betfair,stake 200,just did the bet there.
best of luck pyro.