PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

3:15 Sandown - Fiendish Flame - 1.5pts e/w @ 17/2 (VC)

Yet another horse that I've selected before. I'm a fan of this speedy front runner and bold jumper. He has ability to burn and has been steadily progressive over fences, opening his account off 135 and now running off 145 in a high quality class 2 contest. He has had issues with his jumping, often jumping right handed on left handed courses but now he returns to run the other way around, which may play right into his hands. Donald McCain brings him here in tip top condition, having run Fiendish Flame on 4 occasions already this season, with form figures reading 7-2-1-3. The victory was an easy defeat of last years Cheltenham Gold Cup 6th place, Calgary Bay. Although that horse was running at the completely wrong trip so it may not be great form to bring into account. His next run (and last) was in a high quality contest at Cheltenham at the beginning of December, in which he came 3rd behind an improved Woolcombe Folly, who finished 20l ahead of my selection who made a couple of horrible jumping mistakes. McCain's charge is the model of consistency since going over fences, having won 3 of his 9 starts, coming in the top 3 on 8 occasions, the only blot being the Jewson Novices Chase at the festival, in which he finished 6th of 20, only let down by a mistake 3 out.

His trainer, Donal McCain, comes here in good form having had 25% of his runners winning in the last 2 weeks. He doesn't come to Sandown too often and I believe he could of found the ideal race to pick up a decent pot with this lively 7 year old. The soft going is also perfect for Fiendish Flame and the 2m trip in testing conditions could see him in a very good light, assuming his jumping holds up under pressure. Another positive is the likely hood that he should face no competition for the lead, which is key to this horse winning as all of his victories have come when making all of the running. Jason Magiure takes the ride, and he has been on board for 4 of this fellows 5 career victories. He's a very good jockey and has a decent 13% strike rate over fences at Sandown. It's a very tough race by all means and the fact that he only carries 10st 13lbs in a handicap shows the true qualities of this race. However, he has a hell of a lot in his favour and looks nailed on to place at least once again if he runs his race. 8/1 looks big and I'll happily have a small each way bet on a horse that I marked up as a 9/2 shot. He'll make a bold bid from the front and give us a mighty run for our money if he gets a bit of luck.

Bumsex

il both be on Fiendish Flame and Midnight Haze maybe along with oh crick aswel,trust me i was going to back them anyway,im not stealing them,not like you care..:p
best of luck tomo,hopefully your saturday luck continues.

thesandeman

Dont know if this is any good but if anyone has a SkyBet account (I dont) they are paying 5 places on the 1.45 if 18 or more runners.

Jim05

Good stuff Pyro Great start to the day

iggy

Great shout on Marsh Warbler

thesandeman

And the year begins :-D

x PyRo

Fiiiinally. Took so long. Thanks for the comments lads and hopefully more to come.

Bumsex

x PyRo wrote: »

Fiiiinally. Took so long. Thanks for the comments lads and hopefully more to come.

well done pyro on your first winner of the new year.
great spot

UrbanSea

Nice winner Pyro,good place too.

budgemook

Nice spot in the welsh national too! Start of a roll hopefully

x PyRo

Cheers lads. Midnight Haze is now 5/1, wtf?!

budgemook

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers lads. Midnight Haze is now 5/1, wtf?!

i haven't backed it yet, only out of bed! would you take that price pyro?

x PyRo

I would now that it's 7/2 lol, I've no idea what's going on.

UrbanSea

Gonna be a rule 4 though if backed before Fit to Drive was taken out

x PyRo

Very sloppy jumping from Midnight Haze. Didn't like that fellow coming alongside him either.

Decent money about for Nozic. In to 16's now. A place would be nice.

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

Very sloppy jumping from Midnight Haze. Didn't like that fellow coming alongside him either.

Decent money about for Nozic. In to 16's now. A place would be nice.

Another rule 4 though

x PyRo

I do know these things.

4th from Nozic, can't complain. Just not quick enough for 2m 4f nowadays. I'm not giving up on him yet.

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

I do know these things.

4th from Nozic, can't complain. Just not quick enough for 2m 4f nowadays. I'm not giving up on him yet.

I'm aware you know them but not everyone following the thread would and wouldn't know if there's a rule four or not.

budgemook

greetings wrote: »

I'm aware you know them but not everyone following the thread would and wouldn't know if there's a rule four or not.

like me, i haven't a clue what you're talking about:)

UrbanSea

budgemook wrote: »

like me, i haven't a clue what you're talking about:)

A rule 4 is a deduction in the amount of money you return because of a withdrawal. e.g say if you bet on a horse at 10/1 and after that bet a horse in the race who was 5/1 is withdrawn,then there will be a rule 4 of 15cent.
Full table here
http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk/rule4.asp

x PyRo

Marsh Warbler ran a cracker to win easily in his Grade 1 contest. Traveled and jumped like a dream then showed a nice turn of foot to scoot clear. He's a high class horse and he'll be a beast on soft ground, but not sure how he'll handle better ground. 1st

I'moncloudnine was great I thought, he put in a fair few slow jumps which cost him a lot of momentum. Done well to place I thought. 3rd

Midnight Haze was massively punted into 4/1 from the 14's I got. He didn't run well though and was pulled up after hammering a few fences when weakening. Pity. PU

Nozic ran a cracker to come 4th. Just doesn't have the toe for 2m 4 nowadays and I'll side with him again if he's out for a slog in the mud. Glad to see him finish for once. 4th

Fiendish Flame was sent off the 7/2 favourite (17/2 advised) and was going along nicely before jumping badly at numerous fences. He can't get away with that at this level and I now think he may just be handicapped to the hilt, despite his usual consistency. Hopefully he'll be dropped a few pounds at some stage and I'll be interested in him back at Cheltenham on soft going. I'll probably pass over him until then though. 6th(?)

A great start to the day and then a disappointing end but that's racing. Still a nicely profitable Saturday and hopefully I can pick up results again. My 2011 spreadsheet is showing a lot more + signs that it was before anyways!

+11.25pts on the day.

Gavin "shels"

x PyRo wrote: »

Going into a Saturday in awful form, which has been good in past times. Hopefully it is again.

Predicting your up-turn, now there's a good gambler.;) Fairplay on the horse man.

Crowie13

Marsh Warbler ran a cracker to win easily in his Grade 1 contest. Traveled and jumped like a dream then showed a nice turn of foot to scoot clear. He's a high class horse and he'll be a beast on soft ground, but not sure how he'll handle better ground. 1st

For some strange reason this ^^^^ is the only horse of urs I didn't back today and I don't know why

Good picks with both the win and place today.

x PyRo

Ah crap dude. Possibly the 1pt stake putting you off but I was just afraid of the two higher in the market. They looked well clear on official ratings but this fellow is just superior to them in these conditions. The slow gallop helped him too and he has a lovely turn of foot, along with wonderful jumping. Pity I didn't know all of this before hand or I'd of lumped on.

+7.05pts since last update.

Bank - 336.58pts (+236.58pts)

Yearly P/L - +7.05pts

Happy enough start.

x PyRo

2:45 Southwell - Elusive Fame - 1pt e/w @ 9/1 (Bet365)

It may be pure madness to oppose the odds on favourite here but I believe he's vulnerable off this sort of mark and is well worth taking on. My selection for this race is a lively 5 year old from the Mark Johnston stable. He's a 4 time course winner, once over 6f, once over this 7f trip and twice over 1 mile. He has also came 2nd or 3rd here a further 10 times, which is astonishing. This race may pan out to suit a horse who stays further and Elusive Fame fits that bill perfectly having seen out a mile here very well on 2 occasions, the last of which was from a 1lb higher mark and on the back of a slow gallop. He'll get a very quickly run race here, as there are at least 4 horses who could potentially make the running, including the favourite. When Johnston's horse runs at 7f here, his form figures read : 1-2-6-3-2, with the final run in the sequence coming back in August of 2010, in a class 3 contest, off a mark 8lbs higher than he races off today. That race was run at a fierce gallop, something similar to what I think todays could be run at and he only found one in-form horse too good on the day. I really think that Johnston's horses can run well and win on any day, he's just so damn hard to catch but I've had relative success in doing so, having hopped on the bandwagon with many of his horses in the past year. He'll be sure to have this fellow ready again and I fancy they think the drop to 7f in a race of this nature will be absolutely ideal, so I wouldn't be surprised to see a flood of money for him tomorrow, unless they think the favourite is un-opposable.

Elusive Fame has recently been running in similarly strong class 4 handicaps. Running respectably in the main but I was impressed with him last time out, despite being overturned by 4.5l when coming 3rd of 6 runners, behind Follow The Flag, who is a decent type and in good form. That race was over a mile and they went a very good clip, eventually setting it up for the top 2 who came from off the pace. My selection faired best of the prominent racers and looked the likely winner at one stage, trading at 1.20 and slipping the field just over a furlong from home. However, his rank emptied quite quickly as the effort used to take up the running possibly took it all out of him and he was headed inside the final furlong when failing to match the runs of the 2 who finished in front. It was a good run all in all and one I feel would suffice in this race to at least guarantee a top 3 position, with victory also possible. He traveled like a dream in that race and I really believe he's at his best on the back of a good gallop, which I'm very confident we will see here. He has a nice turn of foot too and should be very tough to peg back once his speed and stamina kicks in, assuming he can get to the front. Being a Johnston horse means he could be run any way possible, with many of his horses being exceptional at making the running. I'm just hoping they don't do that here as he's clearly one that needs to take close order but not make all. Joe Fanning takes the ride and he's a top notch jockey when on board any prominent racer, in my opinion. He gets on very well with the horse having guided him to 3 of his 5 career wins, including twice at Southwell. He and Johnston strike up a fine 22% strike rate at Southwell and only pair up for this fellow today. They won with their other runner here this year and the Johnston yard is starting to hit a bit of form once again and I'll be monitoring their runners in the near future. Fanning also only comes here today for 2 rides, this being the most likely winner of the 2, unless the money comes for the other horse who is a real dodge pot at the best of times. I feel that Dubai Hills, the odd on favourite, is very opposable here. He has found his rhythm lately having notched up 2 wins in a row over C&D and not faces his stiffest task to gain the hat-trick. He improved for the step up to 7f when scoring here by 13l off a mark of 65, then repeated the feat by scoring by 8 lengths off a 10lb higher mark. Both of those wins came in class 5 company and he now steps up to class 4 company running off a mark of 81. I believe this mark, combined with his fellow opponents tendencies to try make the running, could catch him out as he is a much better horse when getting to dominate. He's still the likely winner but certainly opposable at best odds of 8/11. Elusive Fame may just be the man to take him on with, as he's a decent type on his day, loves Southwell and looks very tastily handicapped. The fact that Joe Fanning returns to take the reins at Southwell is another plus and I feel that he should place if he's out to try today. We have the bare 8 runners at the moment so fingers crossed that no horses are pulled out between now and race time. 9/1 is a very good each way price for this fellow and I had him priced up as the 5/1 second favourite, bang in contention. Hopefully he'll run well but I'm only playing minimum each way stakes as I don't like the all weather too much due to my recent poor results on it.

x PyRo

2:25 Leopardstown - New Phase - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (PaddyPower)

I'm not a fan of Irish racing by any means, as I can never get it right but I really like the look of this fellow and I expect he'll put in a brave bid for the in-form Dermot Weld yard, who have recently taken a big scalp when winning the Paddy Power Chase at this course in December. Hopefully they get a good chance at making it a fine double by taking this handicap hurdle. They certainly come here with a horse who I believe is potentially well handicapped, especially as he gets 2 of the things he craves. He's getting his soft ground, which is his optimum and he's also getting a chance to win a handicap with ideal conditions, something he did not have when coming 3rd of 9 at Naas in October. The ground was quick that day and the 2m 3f trip would of also stretched him, so I think that 2miles on soft ground on the back of a strong pace will see this fellow overcome his official rating of 133. My one worry is that he has never won left handed, with all 5 career victories coming the other way around. However, he has run respectably on a few occasions going this way around and his only C&D run produced a decent 4th place on what was his 2nd run over hurdles. That experience should stand him in good stead and I expect he'll build on it if getting some luck. He's a soft ground horse through and through, so his previous 3 efforts before his last run can be ignored as an accurate form representation in my opinion, although 2 of them were decent runs on GF while the other was a mid division finish in the Galway Hurdle. I still believe everything is much better for him when going on softer ground and it's now time for us to witness this horses true ability.

New Phase ran a cracker last time out at Cork, arguably one of his best performances, especially visually. He destroyed a decent field by an easy 4 lengths over 2miles on soft ground, jumping supremely in the main and staying on like a good thing. He done all of this giving 7lbs to a horse rated 7lb superior to him called Jered. That's a very good yardstick even though Weld's animal had the benefit of a run but it wouldn't equate to such a trouncing when 14lbs wrong at the weights. It's not spectacular form by any means but it was very good on the eye and proved to me that this horse is still progressing along nicely. He has to carry a lot of weight here, 11st 7lbs to be exact, but that shouldn't be a problem to a horse who looks built to carry weight and he has the benefit of one of my favourite jockeys in the saddle. Robbie McNamara, the many who gave me my biggest ever BSP winner at 150/1 in Galway, takes the ride on a horse who he has been on board 7 times, winning 4. He clearly strikes up a nice partnership with this horse and he'll be aiming to land another big race in the space of 2 weeks. Weld and Robbie Mac have a 33% strike rate over hurdles here, albeit from only 6 runners but I like my stats and this is certainly a nice looking one on paper. Weld has a 16% strike rate with hurdlers at Leopardstown and Robbie has an overall 29% strike rate here, with a tidy 9 winners from 31 rides. They're a formidable partnership and should be able to get this fellow bang in the mix here. New Phase was planned to take time off over the winter before going chasing, which is really interesting as those seem to have been delayed, hopefully in anticipation of taking this €60,000 pot. The horse himself is still unexposed having only had 8 runs over hurdles and could be well able to improve past his 133 rating. His ability to handle the high speed hustle and bustle of such a race is an unknown at this stage but he cruises through his races in nice fashion and it could actually work in his favour. He has also won in 24 and 22 runner races before, including on his hurling debut. He has a very nice turn of foot too which will be vital against some classy animals here so I'm hoping he's kept up with the pace and tries to slip a few lengths on the field when turning for home, if he gets the chance of course. The 14's available are massive, especially with 5 places being paid. I marked him down as a fair 13/2 shot as he has a lot in his favour. He'd be even shorter in my book had this race been run the other way around but I'll take my chances with a reasonably sized each way bet in the hope that he fulfills the promise that he has looked like he's capable of. Fingers crossed for another big Weld/McNamara race victory.

x PyRo

I should of stayed away from the Irish racing. New Phase was bang in contention before he flattened a couple of hurdles and faded away before being as good as pulled up. Very poor to say the least.

Elusive Fame was no better either. Never picked up under pressure and the favourite won like a good thing. Hopefully Johnston's gets dropped a few lbs and he'll be competitive again.

-6pts on the day.

x PyRo

This is probably the earliest I've ever posted a selection!

2:15 Taunton - Carrickboy - 2pts @ 10/1 (PaddyPower)

This is a relatively wide open class 3 contest, containing only 8 runners. It's over an extended 2m 7f on the sharp Taunton track and I fancy this to play into the strengths of Venetia Williams' lightly raced 7 year old. Carrickboy was a decent hurdler, reaching a peak rating of 132 and running his best race on his final hurdle start when placing in a Listed contest at Aintree. He was then sent chasing after a 6 month lay off. He ran over an extended 2m 1f trip at Exeter, coming a 22 length 2nd to Royal Charm, who is held in high regard by the Paul Nicholls team and aiming to run in Grade 1 company this year. Williams' charge had no chance with the winner but looked like a relatively smart prospect himself, finishing 17l clear of the 3rd place horse even though he wasn't fully extended. He then went to Cheltenham a month later to run in a class 3 handicap, in which he was running very big race before unseating at the 4th last when still bang in contention. He was sent off a well supported 6/1 favourite that day and would of been in the shake up had it not been for blundering at that fence. The ground was also against him that day, as he's a soft ground animal and it was running as good that day, so I was impressed with that run bar his mistake 4 out. They then decided to run this fellow 4 days later in a similar quality handicap at Folkstone, which I can't understand. He was sent off the 7/2 favourite but jumped badly and never really traveled too well, mainly down to having had to run 2 races so close together.

Carrickboy has since been off for 4 week, which should be an ideal amount of time to have him ready to gain his first chase win. The yard aren't banging in the winners by any means but they've had a few and many more have ran very good races. I think they could be worth following in the next few weeks and they now come to a course where they do very well. At Taunton, Venetia's chasers are 13 from 50 (2 from 4 (50%) with Coleman on board), giving her a very impressive 26% strike rate, with a furtner 15 placing. They're highly impressive stats and I believe this horse is their best chance of adding to that here, although they only bring down one other chaser along with one hurdler. This is the first time that Carrickboy has run at anything past 2m 5f, as he now tackles 2 and a half furlongs further than he has before. I'm taking a chance here that he'll handle it and I suspect that we won't see a very quickly run race, which will help him utilize his very good turn of foot. He has also won at this course before, on heavy ground over hurdles. He's highly suited to these sharp tracks and he's the only course winner in the field, which is also a plus. I think he's severely overpriced here, especially as he was deemed good enough to go off favourite in 2 much tougher contests. The Henderson horse will be hard to beat here but he also has worries over the trip and is up 9lbs for his last win, while my selection drops 2lbs in the handicap for his 2 poor results last month. I'd make Williams' charge the 11/2 3rd favourite and I feel he has a very good chance of making amends over fences. Small/medium sized stakes for me and hopefully he'll repay my faith.

x PyRo

Price gone into 15/2 now. I know you're watching, Paddy!

investment

x PyRo wrote: »

Price gone into 15/2 now. I know you're watching, Paddy!

LMAO PADDY POWER IS FAR FROM WATCHING:D

He is off on his own island with five girls and his millions