PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

LMAOLOLROFLCOPTER... etc etc.

x PyRo

2:55 Towcester - Vodka Brook - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (PaddyPower)

I'm quite keen on this lightly raced 8 year old chaser, who may have just found an ideal opportunity to get off the mark for his new connections. He left the Alner yard to join Tim Walford and shaped very well on debut in first time cheek-pieces, putting in his best performance to date when 3rd of 15 over 3m 2f at Carlisle. He was running after a 6 month break and looked like a good thing before running out of petrol in the final run in, hitting 1.15 in the process. The trip was a bit on the long side given the conditions that day and he'll find this 2m 6f much more to his liking, plus the ground should be quite similar. He was turned out 2 weeks after that debut run, which turned out to be a mistake as he was pulled up in a 3m 1f contest at Wetherby and was reported to have found that race coming too soon. Walford didn't run him again until 6 weeks later, in a "Jumpers Bumper" at Southwell, in which he was easily beaten and showed little dash over the 2 mile trip. That was a joke race and he was only out to improve his race fitness I'd imagine as he hadn't a snowballs chance in hell of running well on those terms. I now find him very interesting in what will be a very testing slog in soft ground, which will be right up his street.

Vodka Brook should love the Towcester track, as its undulating and testing nature should be right up his street. He gets his ideal soft ground too and he should get a race run to suit. He's running off a mark of 130, which may be a bit below what I think he could eventually achieve. He's relatively lightly raced, having only had 9 runs over fences, in which he won 2, came 2nd twice and 3rd twice. He's consistent in the main and I think a repetition of his debut run for the Walford yard would see him win this, comfortably too. The cheekpieces really perked him up for the run and he avoided his customary jumping mistakes, which were all too prominent on previous attempts over fences. It was only his stamina that gave way that day and the 4f drop here will hopefully counteract that. He faces a few decent types but many of them find winning hard and any of them who have won recently, look on stiff marks. I'd much rather be with a relatively unexposed horse who could improve more, than try and solve the race by picking something still feeling the effects of a tough mark and bad form. This fellow is the only runner for Tim Walford, who makes a 320 mile round trip to come to a track that he has only visited on 7 occasions in the past. Robert Walford, the same jockey who rode him on debut, takes the ride again. The father/son combination have had 1 runner here over fences with 1 winner, 100% strike rate! I'm hoping they also think that this track is the place to get him off the mark for their yard as I believe it'll play into his strengths. How he's deemed a 12/1 shot I'll never know. He has enough form in the book to go very well and I marked him up as a fair 13/2 shot with very good place prospects. I'm having a smallish each way bet at very tasty odds and hopefully he'll replicate that Carlisle run.

Mossyman

Carrickboy is a non-runner Pyro.

mickey1979

keep going mate I think your doing the right thing Jumps seems to a graveyard for most form pundits I am sure you will have a spurt again where things go right limiting your losses are the key

x PyRo

Cheers Mickey, it's a disaster at the moment but I'm just hoping that form eventually matters as I can't call it right at the moment.

Vodka Brook was going nicely until pecking on landing after what was a decent jump but he came out badly on the other side. That's awful frustrating as the way it panned out would of been perfect for him I'd of thought. Turned into a real slog and his stamina would of kicked in but that ruined his chances. Ah well, can't get it right all the time! He was eventually pulled up.

-3pts on the day with the other being a non runner.

x PyRo

1:40 Newcastle - Leith Walk - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Very competitive and trappy class 4 event over 2miles at Newcastle. I'm expecting they'll go a decent clip here and that my play into the hands of this relatively lightly raced 8 year old mare. Leith Walk is a hard one to get right, as she often flatters to deceive when looking in with a big chance and finding little for pressure. Her only career success was over 2m 4f at Musselburgh in a good quality class 3 handicap. They went a mighty fine gallop that day on similar ground to what we'll get today and that played right into her hands, eventually finishing very strongly from off the pace to score by 4 lengths and still going away. She always gave the impression that she'd stay further than that trip but she hasn't managed to put in a good performance at anything beyond 2m 4f. Now, Leith Walk is running over 2m, which wouldn't exactly seem ideal but I think the race could revolve around who is staying on the best in conditions where the speedier horses may well fold under pressure. If this race pans out as expected, then I find it hard to believe that she wouldn't be staying on as well as anything else and if for once, she found something off the bridle, then she could possibly scoot away to win for the 2nd time in her 15 race career. She won that class 3 event off a mark of 94 and only runs off 3lbs higher today having failed to impress after that, she should prove to be well handicapped and we know she holds her own against better opposition that this, so hopefully everything else will go in her favour.

Leith Walk comes here on the back of a 2 month break. She ran over a testing 2m 1f at Carlisle, coming within 2 lengths of a horse who has subsequently followed up that success to frank my selections recent form. She just didn't handle the ground as well as the winner but looked to be tanking along when coming to challenge, hitting 1.21 in the process. She found little off the bit but was still upsides the winner when making a mistake at the final flight, plus the ground was very testing and todays is much more ideal, with the potential of even more rain, which would help. There seems to be a fair few possible pace setters here and I'm just praying that they go off at the speed I think they will. It's an 18 runner race so something is bound to tank along in front to ensure it's a good test and this will be where Leith Walk can be at her most effective. The galloping and testing nature of the Newcastle track should also play into her hooves and the very testing run in will hopefully be where she confirms her abilities to do so. She's bring partnered today by a jockey called Callum Whillans, who I've never heard of and rides for someone who I can only assume is his father, as they share the same second name. The jockey takes off a massive 10lbs to leave the mare carrying only 9st 12lbs in this race, which is another positive. The trainer has a very good record at the track, having had a 100/1 winner previously along with many other good priced winners. He has had 9 finish first and 10 finish second, all that coming from 62 runners, with a massive LSP of £127. The young claimer hasn't got amazing stats by any means but he has won and came 2nd on Leith Walk, all this coming from 5 rides. She was 25/1 when winning that class 3 event so hopefully she'll defy decent odds to fly home once again. I marked the horse up as a fair 10/1 shot with very good place claims assuming there's a good gallop, if there's not, then we can forget about this horse having any chance as she won't win a sprint in the run in but would probably come there shaping as if she's traveling the best so an in-running lay may be advisable, especially as she often trades a lot shorter than her BSP. She's currently trading at 14/1, which I think could end up drifting out, despite the fact that I think she should be shorter. There isn't a cent around for her on the exchanges at the moment and the fact that she's from an unfamiliar yard may mean we'll get an even bigger price come the off, which I'd be quite happy with! Medium each way stakes in the hope that she is as good as I think she can be, plus there's 4 places being paid, so I feel she could certainly fill one of those if she runs to her abilitiy.

Nulty

Winner of his last race won again off the same mark and he seems to go well fresh.

EDIT

Excuse me, I only read your essay after I posted

x PyRo

Hopefully they've put some fireworks on her hooves this time. I'd love to see her pick up for once! Seems to be a nice horse on the bridle then finds nothing. Just hoping she can stay well enough in touch then get a chance for the stamina to kick in. All sounds nice now though, may sound daft if she comes a tailed off 18th place!

That's my only bet for the day anyways, too many crappy races.

x PyRo

Leith Walk finished 8th. Got outpaced and made a stupid mistake 4 out. I'll be keeping an eye on her for sure and hopefully she'll run over further soon.

-4pts on another poor day.

x PyRo

5:15 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 4pts @ 11/2 (VC)

Back with reasoning later. Price shouldn't be around too long and I've already missed 7's.

UrbanSea

Pyro just saw a welcome description you've been waiting for.


The words 'good-good to firm in places'

x PyRo

Good to firm? :eek: Madness!

Re-hashed version of my previous write up for her.

5:15 Kempton - Absa Lutte - 4pts @ 11/2 (VC)

Talented mare on her day who loves racing around Kempton, having won here on 4 occasions, including 2 over this flying 5 furlongs. She needs a very quickly run race to be at her best and I feel the numerous pace setters in the field could set it up perfectly for her, assuming she comes back to something like her best. She switched yards recently and made her debut start for the Michael Mullineaux stable when finishing 9th of 12 at Wolverhampton. That was after a 4 month lay off and she only finished 4 lengths off the winner, having been hampered at the start. She can win from behind but is most effective when sitting in behind the pace, which she never had a chance of doing after that interference. She was also denied a clear run just over 1f out which certainly didn't help matters and I believe she has come on ten fold for that run, as shown at Kempton a week ago. Absa Lutte is now rated as a 71 animal, and that looks a pretty attractive mark, given that she placed off 79 on the turf (she's much better on AW) and she's now 3lbs lower than her last C&D win, which was also in this grade. Her jockey, Joesph Young, takes off another valuable 7lbs from his claim, effectively leaving her to run off a mark of 64, which has her very well in, in my opinion. Young is a decent jockey despite his lack of experience and good value for his claim, he also has a decent record on the all weather in his relatively short career, having won on board 3 of his 29 rides, with a further 8 placing. His has ridden twice at Kemtpon , both for Mullineaux, in which he finished 2nd and 3rd, so hopefully he atones for that here, by gaining victory.

Absa Lutte ran over the flying 5 at Kempton last time out, in which she finished 1 1/2 lengths behind the leading duo to finish in a gallant 3rd place. She was given a very easy time of it but got up to land place money on the line. That was her best run for some time and I feel the iron is hot and ready to strike, helped by the fact that she'll only have to carry 8st on her back today. The race will be run ideally to suit and she's somehow judged to be a bigger price than Feeling Foxy, to whom she finished behind last time out but has an 8lb swing at the weights here. The other main danger is the Stewart Williams trained, Stratton Banker, who is in great form of late but flopped last time out when coming last of 5 over 6f here. The step back in trip will suit as will the likely fast gallop but he's a Lingfield/Wolverhampton type horse and Kempton may not play to his strengths. 3/1 is much too short as well for a horse who is 6lbs higher than his last win, which was at Lingfield when defeating Fromsong, a distinctly average 12 year old horse. Numerous others come in to the equation but I feel many are either handicapped out of it or avoidable at their respective prices. I'll happily take them on with a horse who is clearly in good knick and also shaped as if ready to get back into the winners enclosure over this C&D last time out.

Interestingly, Mullineaux is making the 350+ mile round trip for the second time in a week to bring Absa Lutte to the location of her greatest successes and I think that speaks volumes. He only brings two horses to Kempton and has only had 26 runners here since having his first in '01. The slow going at Wolverhampton on her penultimate start wouldn't of helped her either and the Kempton surface is obviously ideal. She's perfectly drawn in stall 11 and right beside the likely pace setter, Feeling Foxy. There are a few more pace angles in the race but I think he's the most likely of them to set it, as he's most effective when doing so. I'm hoping that Mullineaux's charge will keep relatively close order on the pace before pouncing late on, if she's good enough. It'll be mighty tough for her contenders here if she's out to win and on song as she has a lot of ability on the back of a strong pace and she seems very well handicapped on all known form. I marked her up as a fair 3/1 (25%) shot, way shorter than the 11/2 which I got her at and I believe it's a much truer reflection of her chances. A big win bet for me here at a price that I can't ignore.

iggy

Down to 7/2 now on PP. I got it at 5/1 earlier. Here's hoping

OutlawPete

greetings wrote: »

The words 'good-good to firm in places'

UrbanSea

OutlawPete wrote: »

Haha. Something we've all wanted for a while.

SirDelboy18

Found 50 quid on the ground. Put €20 on Duke of Rainford and Absa Lutte double so here is desperately hoping!!:D

iggy

SirDelboy18 wrote: »

Found 50 quid on the ground. Put €20 on Duke of Rainford and Absa Lutte double so here is desperately hoping!!:D

Its mine give it back.

x PyRo

3rd in the end. Good run but not good enough. Winner won going away after drifting to a backable price. Absa had it perfectly run for her to attack but she's just not up to this level nowadays. Hopefully she'll run here again next time and be dropped in class.

Sorry lads.

-4pts on the day.

iggy

Had a good bit on a place so im up a fair bit

Cheers

x PyRo

Bank - 319.58pts (+219.58pts)

Yearly P/(L) - -9.95pts

80 odd points lost in the last couple of months. Depressing.

3:40 Hereford - Lord Singer - 2pts @ 6/1 (VC)

I'll be back with reasoning in a couple of hours.

x PyRo

3:40 Hereford - Lord Singer - 2pts @ 6/1 (VC)

Decent hurdler who has since made the transfer to chasing when making his debut over UK fences (formerly French trained) at Sandown in November. He traveled well throughout and was only denied victory due to jumping several fences to his left on what is a right handed track. However, he jumped them like a horse who will eventually make a fine chaser and only lost out after being headed in the final run in by Pepe Simo, a mighty fine chasing prospect from the Paul Nicholls yard. A repetition of that run, minus the jumping left, would be sufficient enough to see Gary Moore's charge claim victory. Sandown is a very tough place to jump fences anyways so I'd forgive him for jumping left under pressure. Lord Singer's next assignment was a 4 runner class 4 beginners chase at Lingfield on similarly heavy ground to what he'll face today. He was sent off the 1/2 favourite, pulled hard in front early on but seemed to get into a rhythm after the first few fences, jumping alright before guessing at one and taking a very heavy fall. He hoped up unscathed and has since had nearly 2 months off the race track. I'd assume they'll have done a lot of work with him lately and have him in tip top condition to compete in what looks a very winnable race.

Assuming racing goes ahead at Hereford, the ground will be extremely testing, which will be ideal for Lord Singer. He won over hurdles on ground described as "heavy" and he also came a 3l away 3rd to Aegean Dawn on very testing ground at Folkstone, on what was his hurdling debut. His race last time out was also on this going, in which he was taking along before coming to grief after the 7th, in a race he would of almost certainly won. Had he done so, he'd be much shorter than the current 11/2 that's available (I got 6's). Gary Moore's yard are in decent knick having been in the winners enclosure 5 times since the new year. He does very well when coming to Hereford as his 15% strike rate shows, that's boosted up to 33% when Jamie Moore rides. It's interesting that despite jumping left when going right handed, then being switched to a left handed course, Lord Singer now returns to go right handed once again. If he's feeling no ill-effects of that heavy fall then I think he should jump around this course well enough to put him in contention. I'd make the assumption that he's been off for 2 months to improve his jumping and he also goes exceptionally well when fresh (Won after a near identical break last year). His handicap mark of 118 doesn't look overly harsh and he has everything to suit today, with ground, trip and the likely hood that he'll get the lead all being in his favour, but even if he doesn't get the lead, there should be enough pace on for him to bowl along in behind, which would also suit based on hurdle runs. The Nicholls runner is an unknown quantity at this stage and doesn't warrant a 3/1 price tag despite his powerful connections. Some of the others are in bad form or unsuited by the going/trip and a couple of the last time out winners look like overcoming their penalties will be tough. I'd much rather side with a horse who has been progressive over hurdles and potentially decent class over fences. The form behind Pepe Simo could look very strong once that one comes out again, as it was run on good ground which wouldn't be in the favour of Gary Moore's 6 year old, plus it was run over a very tough course. Hereford is a tough enough place to jump around but the course characteristics should suit a horse who is a relentless galloper on his day and highly suited to the testing conditions. The 6/1 I took looks very good value to me, especially as I had him priced up as a 7/2 shot. This is the only horse Moore sends out today too and I feel he'll be getting a win out of him soon.

Back in October, Gary Moore said that Lord Singer was "a born chaser – a big, strong, powerful horse who jumps fences well – but needs pretty heavy ground. If you could hold him up he’d be even better, but he pulls too hard so you have to let him bowl. He’s a 120 horse over hurdles and should be even better over fences." He gets his heavy ground today and I think he'll live up to the expectations that Gary has for him finally, at the third attempt. If his last line is correct, then the 118 rating shouldn't be beyond him, the rest is left to chance. Hopefully he gives his running and feels no effect from his fall last time out. I'm tempted to go in even bigger but I'll just play small/medium stakes as it's a competitive contest with many unexposed types but this is the one to be on, in my opinion.

argosy2006

I have never seen so many favourites winning, its not you dude, there is just no value to be had, i suggest 5 pts on 10-3 's lol:P

x PyRo

(Cheltenham Ante-Post Bet #2)

The Champion Hurdle - Tuesday, 15th of March

Dunguib - 5pts @ 20/1 (Coral)

I'm pretty sure I'll get the chance to trade out if I want. 20's are madness and I just want to make sure I don't miss it. He's definitely the forgotten horse of the race and if he makes any sort of impression on Hurricane Fly in the Irish Champion Hurdle in 10 days time then the price could collapse. He was sent off the 4/5 favourite in last years Supreme Novices Hurdle at Cheltenham, raced in the middle of the track throughout and only managed 3rd place, only 2 lengths behind Menorah, who looks a superstar in the making. I still think that was a wonderful performance from Fenton's charge given the amount of ground that he must of thrown away due to the trainer and jockeys tactics, which were to allow him clear viewing of all the hurdles as he's not exactly a magnificent jumper. However, he has an amazing cruising speed and if/when they go a rapid gallop in the Champion Hurdle at the festival, he'll be bang in the mix I feel.

It'd be much better if there was a professional jockey on him but I'll take my chances as Dunguib certainly isn't worthy of such a large price tag. He's a highly talented individual and he'll have a damn good chance of proving that at the festival if he turns up on song. They said he was over the top by the time he faced Hurricane Fly in the Rabobank Champion Hurdle at Punchestown in April and that could help explain his poor performance, which also wasn't helped by the quick-ish ground and a combination of pulling hard and poor jumping mid race. He was beaten by over 15l by Willie Mullins' highly impressive 7 year old but I don't think that's true form. Connections are taking it much easier with their talented 8 year old this year, with plans to send him to Cheltenham straight after the Irish Champion, assuming he makes a decent impression. Fenton said he'd be happy to "come within 10 lengths of Hurricane Fly" but I think that he's only pullin' our leg! He'll be coming a lot closer than that I reckon, plus he does go well fresh. They went to Cheltenham last year having had 4 runs before the Supreme, the first being in October and the last being 5 weeks before his tilt at glory in March. It may well pay dividends to go on the back of just the one run this time and have a fit and fresh animal who isn't burnt out form his previous exertions, although that probably wasn't the case in the Supreme last year but it possibly took its toll on the horse. It's all ifs and buts, however, I'd much rather see him taking this route than having a busy campaign, plus having an outing 7 weeks or so should also help and leave him race fit but he'll also be relatively fresh when turning up at Cheltenham. The way he won the Champion Bumper in 08 was one of the best performances in years and the way he powered 10 lengths clear of the field when going up the hill was a sight to behold. I'd love to see it again and I bought into all the hype last year when lumping on, only to end up disappointed. I'm hoping I'll get a chance to see him power clear in such a high class field again and maybe this could be the year, if he jumps around well for once. They'll be hoping it'll come up relatively soft, as he's not very good on quicker ground and the softer it gets, the better chance he'll have. So I'm praying that the weather stays crap for a while yet and it'll also help my other 5pt bet on Pandorama in the Gold Cup. He'll need some give in the ground too but I reckon I'll get a chance to trade out of that one at a shorter price, as I'm on at 20's. It's risky backing ground dependent horses but I'll take my chances.

Maximum bet on now, which is my second for the festival. I don't think I'll be having any more of those for a while anyways.

I haven't posted my reasoning for Pandorama yet but I'll get to it at some stage. I'll be doing more in-dept proper race reviews for Cheltenham from the middle of February onwards so this is only a little one to get me started.

Bets as of now:

Gold Cup - Pandorama - 5pts @ 20/1 (WillHill) - Placed and posted 28/12/10

Champion Hurdle - Dunguib - 5pts @ 20/1 (Coral) - Placed and posted 13/01/11

Staked at Cheltenham so far - 10pts

FOXFISH1

Lord Singer now 7.50 on bet365

x PyRo

Really really nice price in my opinion. The Jonjo/McCoy horse is coming in for support so something had to give, fortunately (if he wins!) for some people it's the Moore one.

I'd nearly hazard a guess that if Lord Singer is backed he'll win. If he drifts or doesn't move in price, he'll lose. Seems to be a recurring theme with Moore and all the time I've followed racing. He'll know if it's going to win today, I'm just hoping it's positive market signs as the horse has a lot of other positives.

UrbanSea

I was looking at Shadow Dancer in that race before. Good luck with your one,couldn't make head nor tail of the race.

Nulty

Good luck with Dunguib, my pedancy cannot be contained - Brian O'Connell turned professional last year.

x PyRo

Cheers Nulty, better change that.

Ominous drift on Lord Singer too. F....

Nulty

Carnaby Street is about to run in Dubai. Ground is obviously against him though.

UrbanSea

I hope you don't mind a bit of discussion here Pyro,but can't have Dunguib myself for the Champion. As you said he's not the best jumper,and poor jumpers aren't going to crack it in the Champion. Whole different world running in the Champion and the Supreme novices. Not that I wish bad luck on you though