PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

I'm thinking of changing my approach for the rest of the NH season by doing a lot more dutching. Probably backing 2 and 3 horses per race. It should cut down the losses, it would would cut profits but there has been none lately and I'm getting quite fed up. My second choice won that race today and he would of been a nice little saver. My third choice was 3rd. I'm cutting down with 1 point is to me, not by much but enough to stake more per race and stop the rot hopefully. It's not even funny anymore.

Roll on the flat season, where I can actually pick the odd winner.

UrbanSea

Give it time,the winners won't be long coming back. Would you do any bets at Meydan or Jebal Ali? Some nice prices in those handicaps. Had a 12/1 winner myself first bet in a log and had my last bet beaten a short head

Quazzie

x PyRo wrote: »

I'm cutting down with 1 point is to me,

Just out of curiosity. What is 1 pt for x_Pyro?

x PyRo

greetings wrote: »

Give it time,the winners won't be long coming back. Would you do any bets at Meydan or Jebal Ali? Some nice prices in those handicaps. Had a 12/1 winner myself first bet in a log and had my last bet beaten a short head

Cheers G. Doubt I will be as I haven't a notion how to solve those races. I think I'm better off failing at the NH and AW rather than adding Dubai to that list!

Domo-kun wrote: »

Just out of curiosity. What is 1 pt for x_Pyro?

I use the points system here as I don't want people to know what I win or lose, so I'd rather not say. It's significant enough to hurt when I'm losing 80+ of them but not enough to leave me bankrupt and on the streets. :pac:

Quazzie

x PyRo wrote: »

I use the points system here as I don't want people to know what I win or lose, so I'd rather not say. It's significant enough to hurt when I'm losing 80+ of them but not enough to leave me bankrupt and on the streets. :pac:

A point for me is €2.50 but I do admit I do it for the interest in the races rather than any hope of making massive amounts of profit. I'm clueless about horse racing so its just a self-financing way (most of the time) to get involved.

x PyRo

Wouldn't matter if it was 10c, it all counts. It's a nice (but possibly expensive!) way to get interested in racing as it makes it much more exciting, that's how my obsession started. Just putting on fivers here and there on other peoples selections then I started to learn more and love the sport. Now I don't really do much else, as you know I'd say.

UrbanSea

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers G. Doubt I will be as I haven't a notion how to solve those races. I think I'm better off failing at the NH and AW rather than adding Dubai to that list!



I use the points system here as I don't want people to know what I win or lose, so I'd rather not say. It's significant enough to hurt when I'm losing 80+ of them but not enough to leave me bankrupt and on the streets. :pac:

Haha even watch them sometime maybe,good racing I think I know what your point is btw :pac: but won't say :P

x PyRo

I'll take a look at it tomorrow if it's on. I remember betting on it once, on something really short priced. I was enjoying it, until he came stone last!

UrbanSea

You can watch replays here if you're looking to kill some time.
http://www.emiratesracing.com/
Good to watch the replays when the group ones are ran.

x PyRo

Cheers G, I'll check it out later, just trying to solve the 3:20 at Musselburgh.

If I keep losing over the next week then I'm done until Cheltenham then I'm done until the flat starts to level out. Can't handle the pain of constantly losing!

UrbanSea

Shall leave you to it my good man.Ballabrook for me in that but not having a bet on it.

x PyRo

greetings wrote: »

Shall leave you to it my good man.Ballabrook for me in that but not having a bet on it.

Stop reading my mind. :mad:

Back soon with reasoning and crap.

UrbanSea

Haha great minds think alike

SirDelboy18

Tomorrow brings a big winner for you.. I can feel it!

x PyRo

Cheers Delboy, I can't though. I'm going to play around with some savers tomorrow as it's sickening how many of my 2nd and 3rd rated are winning. I've been a bit stupid to go so long without covering myself sufficiently. Although it could completely backfire but we'll see!

SirDelboy18

Im a bit rubbish at the horse racing betting, but I think the Wonga Coup could go well in the 2 30 at Lingfield tomorrow at big prices. Any opinion on that race?

x PyRo

I'll get back to you on that one dude.

3:20 Musselburgh

This is a 3 mile handicap chase on very testing ground in which it may be smart to side with horses who stay well, handle conditions and don't carry too much weight. The first horse who caught my eye was the Donald McCain trained, Ballabrook. He comes here on the back of one of his better performances to date, when staying on very strongly from a long way back in a 3m 2f chase at Catterick back in December. That was on relatively good ground, which isn't ideal for this 9 year old stayer. Jason Maguire also gave him a very relaxed ride and didn't push the button until the race was lost, but when he did, the horse ate up the ground to finish a 12 length 3rd. I think a more positive ride will pave the way for this maiden chaser to get his first victory over the larger obstacles, having seen his only 2 career wins to date come over hurdles. Conditions today will be significantly more favourable and with a bit of luck, he should be bang in contention at the business end of proceedings. I can't see any chance of excessive pace here and that may just play into his hands, as he can guess at a few fences so jumping under less pressure will be in his favour. He's not the quickest horse in the world and usually I'd think a strong gallop would be ideal, but he ran on very well under little pressure last time out and a similar effort could suffice here, especially in ground as testing as this. Both of his hurdle wins came when the going had "soft" in it. One of those was in quite testing conditions at Catterick, where he ran out a relatively easy winner over 2m 3f, so he seems to have the toe at shorter distances on soft ground, which suggests to me that he could do it over 3m on the back of a slow gallop, plus he's unexposed at the trip having only went 3 miles or further on his last 2 starts, resulting in a 2nd and 3rd place. He'll also only carry 10st 10lbs, which will come in handy when the going gets though. Interestingly, Donald McCain is traveling nearly 500 miles to the course, just bringing Ballabrook with him, that's significant in my eyes and I believe they may have found the ideal race to get him off the mark. Maguire has a 20% strike rate over fences at Musselburgh and hasn't ridden here since February of last year, so I feel it's significant that he comes for just 2 rides, the other being a maiden who I wouldn't consider in with a great chance. I'll be having a small to medium win bet on this fellow at odds of 13/2 which are very tasty indeed. He's marked down as a fair 4/1 shot in my book and I expect the price will be closer to my expectations come race time.

The one I feel worthy of having a saver on is the prolific Point-to-Point winning Irish raider, Bally Wall. He looks well handicapped on his best form under rules and is now just 3lbs higher than when winning impressively at Ayr back in April of last year, in what was a very competitive class 2 novice handicap which has thrown up many talented horses in the past. He's a very game type who often sees out his races very well and is at home in these testing conditions. Going a slow gallop will also be in this horses favour and I very much doubt that his trainer is bringing him over from Ireland for nothing. Andrew Lynch takes the ride and he's a jockey I rate quite highly. He visits the track for the first time and only rides 2 horses, the other is one I wouldn't expect to win. Lynch partnered this 8 year old for the 4th time and he was the man who got him to gain his only success under rules so far. Bally Wall ran decently over hurdles last time out to come a close 2nd of 4, that was his first hurdle start and I'd assume it was a prep race to preserve his chase mark and have him ready for this relatively weak encounter. The 11/2 looks good to me, he's a 9/2 shot in my book and I'm expecting he'll make a brave bid alongside my other selection. Small bet as a saver for my main selection.

Selections :

Ballabrook - 2pts @ 13/2 (Bet365)
Bally Wall - 1pt @ 11/2 (Bet365)

x PyRo

3rd for Bally Wall, 7th for Ballabrook.

-3pts on the day.

Absolutely shocking. Would of staked 3pts on Ballabrook usually so it made no odds that both lost but that was just disappointing.

Going into a Saturday in awful form again, which is always a good sign.

Time to get the head in the books, long night ahead.

UrbanSea

Don't worry about it buddy,tomorrow's a new day.

x PyRo

1:20 Kempton - Aather - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betfred)

Previous selection of mine when racing over 2m 1f at Cheltenham last time out, in which he finished 7th of 17, well off the pace. He traveled well for a long time before his customary weak finishing came into play and he dropped away tamely. I still believe he's still worth chancing once again, especially now returning to Kempton, a track on which he finished 2nd to the highly progressive Clerk's Choice, to whom he was giving 15lbs in weight to. That race was run on good ground, similar to what he has faced on his most recent outings too and the cut in the ground for this contest should certainly pave for much better performance. On his penultimate start at the end of October, he ran in a very good Listed contest at Ascot, in which he finished a respectable 4th, just 6 lengths behind Tocca Ferro, who has since went on to frank the form by winning easily in another Listed contest. My selection was iffy over a few hurdles, lost his placing before running on again to challenge, then faded on the flat. It was a highly promising run from him in my opinion, and one that would give him every chance here on a more favourable surface against lesser opposition. This doesn't look an overly tough race, certainly not tougher than some of the races that Aather has went very close in. I also think that they should go a fair gallop out in front, as there's a fair few prominent races lining up and this should play into the hands of the Alan Flemming trained 6 year old.

Aather gained his last win off a mark 15lbs lower than what he runs off today. That win came at Ffos Las, a similarly flat track to Kempton. I believe he could be a totally reformed character on these types of courses and the fact that he gets some cut in the ground is also a big positive as he gained that win on Good to Soft ground and finished 2nd on Soft ground at Cheltenham next time out in a much tougher race that this. He may have needed those 2 runs this season to get fully wound up and I believe this could be an ideal time for the iron to strike. Young 5lb claimer, Conor O'Farrell, takes the ride today, with Timmy Murphy ridding a different horse in the race, which looks very odd to me. However, O'Farrell is a very promising jockey and takes off a valuable 5lbs here to leave Aather carrying 10st 12lbs, which will come in very handy. Trainer, Alan Flemming, usually does fairly well at Kempton, having had 3 winners, 3 seconds and 2 thirds from 13 runners. I'm pinning my hopes on a flat, sharp, 2 mile trip, to be a God send for this horse. He clearly has a lot of ability and always seemed the type that would progress beyond a mark like this. I think he has a fair few lb in hand at a track like this and could be up to winning if things fall his way. The good gallop will play to his strengths and he may be able to find more for pressure in softer ground. The 12/1 looks huge to me, he's a 15/2 shot in my book and I think he could come in for some support, assuming I'm not the only one to notice his significantly large price tag. Small each way bet as it's an open race but he's definitely up to standard and should go well.

x PyRo

1:55 Kempton - The Snail - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Coral)

Progressive 8 year old who notched up a sequence of 6 wins in 7 races, over both hurdles and fences. He's ideally suited to sharp, flat tracks and will love the cut in the ground, so I'm just hoping his progression hasn't come to an end. His last victory came in a similar class 3 contest at Ludlow, in which he beat a subsequent winner by an easy 7 lengths, despite making some mistakes. He then flopped next time out under a penalty but it was understandable as it was his 3rd run in less than 2 weeks, which is excessive to say the least. A well deserved 7 month break followed and he made his seasonal reappearance at Ffos Las, when coming a well beaten 5th of 6, shaping as if in dire need of the run. However, Ffos Las is a left handed track and he just doesn't seem to act going that way around, with all 6 of those victories coming when going right handed. He constantly jumped to his right and slowly lost touch with the main contenders, also he was definitely not helped by the 2 mile trip against speedier rivals, so the return to an extended 2m 4f will definitely be in his favour. I expect we'll see a much sharper animal today and he'll strip a lot fitter for having had the run. Kempton is obviously a right handed track and plays right to his strengths, he's also equally at home on any ground and shouldn't be inconvenienced by the likely strong pace that will be encountered.

The Snail is still relatively unexposed having only had 7 starts over fences, of which he has ended up in the winners enclosure on 3 occasions. I don't believe that he has reached the peak of his powers yet and may have a couple of more wins in him. He still shoulders a 7lb penalty for that win at Ludlow in March of last year but he won in the style of a good horse and it may not be enough to stop him from going close once again, especially with everything likely to suit. Evan Williams trains this lively 8 year old and his yards are firing on all cylinders lately, having had a fair number of winners in the last couple of weeks and months. They don't come down to Kempton too often and only bring down 2 animals today, with this their most likely chance of success. Williams is making a 300 mile round trip and I think he'll be intent of doing his best to land this £7k pot to make it worth his while. Paul Moloney takes the ride and he gets on very well with the horse, having won on him 3 times from 7 rides and is 1 from 1 over fences, hopefully a good omen. He has a decent 15% strike rate over the Kempton fences and I'd rate him as a decent jockey. All in all, The Snail has a decent chance here in what I'd consider to be a race lacking any strength in depth and I think he's significantly overpriced. He's generally around the 10/1 mark but one BOG firm go 14's, which is very tasty indeed. I marked him up as a fair 9/1 shot and I expect he'll give a good run for my money, and hopefully place at least.

UrbanSea

We think alike man :pac: Was seriously considering aather myself. I remember backing Pepe Simo each way in the Imperial at Sandown and being so worried about Aather. I said I wouldn't back him ever though after he flopped in that and only finished second in a novice hurdle as favourite the race after though.

x PyRo

Great minds Sir, great minds!

2:25 Kempton - Escort'men - 2pts @ 9/1 (Bet365)

It could be madness to oppose the 3 market principles here in this hot Grade 1 contest but I believe each of them are vulnerable and easy to have doubts about. This looks the next best bet, given the style of his victory of this C&D when landing a Grade 2 contest on soft ground back in February of last year. He was sent off as a 16/1 shot having fallen on his debut for Paul Nicholls but he traveled like a dream throughout and was jogging in behind his rivals with relative ease when coming down to the last. Ruby Walsh was on board that day and didn't want him to hit the front too early so he bided his time before nudging him along. He went by them like a good thing and strolled to a 14 length success, not once shaken up or asked the question. Escort'men then went to Aintree and was sent off as the 4/1 second favourite in another Grade 2 contest. The ground was possibly too quick on that day and they went pretty slow up front, which lead to Nicholls' impressive French import pulling very hard throughout, eventually leading to him finding nothing in the run in after making some headway. I'd be more than happy to write off that result as it wasn't a true running of his abilities as he showed when coming back on the back of a 6 month break to score when next seen. He lined out in a class 2 handicap at Chepstow, in which he was giving at least 10lbs to his rivals, much like Menorah in the Greatwood, although in a much less competitive race. They went a good gallop in the race and he settled in last place before making headway into second 2 out. He looked set to claim a relatively easy victory but he made a mistake at the last to let his nearest challenger have another shot. However, he battled bravely to hold on under a determined ride from Ruby Walsh. That run was rated as superior to his Grade 2 success, so he's certainly still on the up and I believe he'll come on even more for having had that experience. He showed guts and determination to land the prize, a prize which Paul Nicholls thought he wouldn't be up to winning with so much weight on his back.

I don't believe that Binocular will be fully wound up until Cheltenham comes along and I'd happily pass over him at odds of 9/4. He was also a beaten favourite in this race last year and I'm hoping that trend continues. Starluck is a good horse, ideally suited to Kempton and the conditions but he finds little off the bridle and I feel he's easily opposable on the majority of his form. He has never won a Graded race and his last race was possibly his best chance of doing it as he's a good horse when fresh, but yet again, he found little for pressure. I think my selection could easily dispose of him, even though there's an 11lb difference in the official ratings. The next one is my big worry, it's the Twiston-Davies trained, Khyber Kim, who finished 2nd in the Champion Hurdle last year and goes exceptionally well fresh. However, he has never won going right handed and was beaten comprehensively on his only 2 hurdle starts going this way around. He has obviously improved significantly but he's a 9 year old now and could be due to decline any time soon, although he has more than enough form to put him bang in contention here. Overturn is a horse I just don't particularly like. He plods along in front and is very game but I feel he'll just be setting it up for the opposition to run off what will hopefully be a very good gallop. He's a good horse in his own right but he's too short for me to get involved with and he completely blew up in the Ebor when last seen, so there's enough doubts to leave well alone. All roads lead back to Escort'men, who will be hoping for a very good gallop to ensure he'll settle out the back before hopefully unleashing his very impressive turn of foot. If he's going to win a Grade 1 against these older horses then now is the perfect time to attempt it and Paul Nicholls is relatively sweet on this horses chance of being top notch. He says he'll improve every time he faces better rivals and now is his chance to prove his trainer right. In the last 9 runnings of this race, only one horse over 6 years old has gained victory. That was a 9 year old Harchibald in 2008 and he was lucky that 2 of his main challengers came to grief. The trends don't read well for the older horses and leave it between my selection, the massive outsider and Starluck, who I just can't fancy. I just going to play small/medium stakes on Nicholls' potential superstar and hope for the best.

Bumsex

i didnt even consider your horse in that race when i was doing my write up....:o..didnt even look into it tbh but obviously from your write he deserves credit...best of luck anyways,
great day a head of us anyways

x PyRo

3:00 Kempton - Riverside Theatre - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Although one of the greatest horses in history, I still can't bring myself to back an 11 year old Kauto Star at odds on and without the wonderful Ruby Walsh on his back. I'm much happier to take him on with something that may have a good chance at filling in the 2 places available after he wins this at a canter, which I think he will. I'm siding with Nicky Henderson's apparent 2nd string and relatively unexposed 7 year old chaser. Even in his short 13 race career, he'd be considered a Kempton specialist, as he's unbeaten here, having won 4 out of 4, although nothing even remotely close to what he'll be up against today but it's still very positive. Riverside Theatre gained his best success when landing a Grade 2 contest over 2 miles here in similar ground conditions when beating a horse who beat him easily over hurdles by a very impressive 12 lengths, barely extending himself. The majority of his running has been done at 2m or 2m 1f, but he stepped up to 2m 5f for the first time on his seasonal reappearance. He looked in need of the run for the first half of the race as they were going a very good clip but he eventually showed his class, jumping supremely in the final stages and strolled away from the field to win by a very easy 9 lengths. A further step up in trip is being experimented with today and I feel he'll have little problem dealing with it, plus it could bring out even more in this progressive and exciting horse. The way he jumped his last fence last time out was absolutely sublime. He's a wonderful jumper, even on the back of a strong pace, and Kempton brings out the absolute best in him. If it does so again, then he'll be the one to give Kauto Star the most trouble, even though on official ratings, he has little, if any, chance.

The softer ground shouldn't inconvenience Riverside Theatre in any way as 3 of his 7 wins has come with the going having some cut in it. He's probably better when it's good but it wouldn't worry me too much as I think he's a high class animal and should be second favourite for this race. Long Run is a poor jumper and has a relatively poor jockey on board. He's great around Kempton too but I wouldn't back him with stolen money. The Nightingale's price is gone now and I don't particularly think he's good enough either, regardless of his love of cut in the ground. Nacarat interested me but the ground isn't ideal and he may be left to do the donkey work up front, which makes it even tougher for him. The rest haven't a chance in my opinion, unless disaster strikes and numerous horses fall but apart from that, I can't have any of them. Kauto Star is well clear on official ratings but he probably ran nearly 2 stone within himself on his reappearance and he looked quite laboured to me. He's still a class act and even running a stone within himself would see a comfortable victory achieved but I couldn't ever get involved with him at those prices. He's not the same horse who hammered Denman in the Gold Cup and he may have his limitations these days, but should still win this. I'm much happier taking him on with a small each way bet on Nicky Henderson's runner. Geraghty in the saddle is a big plus as he's not required to ride the other stable horse and he's a top notch jockey who knows how to get the best out of this fellow. I think 16/1 is vastly overpriced and he'll make a good go of it, hopefully to grab a place at least.

UrbanSea

Haha we are thinking a like again :pac:

x PyRo

Remove the gigantic quote. :mad:



Great minds.

UrbanSea

Haha sorry I was trying to quote from Coughlan's log where I fancied Riverside Theatre for a place but clearly didn't work

Onecoolcookie

Really like the look of Wayward Prince in the 1.10 at Warwick tomorrow, have you any opinions on the race Pyro?

Juwwi

Riverside Theatre is 9/1 with stan james in the betting without kauto :eek: