PyRo's Horse Bets.

FOXFISH1

Prince Of Vasa is a non-runner

x PyRo

Saorocain was awful. Finished last. One of the other outsiders I looked in depth at ended up winning @ 33/1. lol?

Scoter Fontaine was bang in contention before finding little if anything. Disappointing.

-3pts on the day.

UrbanSea

Unlucky big man. Tomorrow's a new day.

x PyRo

Cheers dude.

Quick one for today.

2:50 Wolverhampton - Torteval - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Betfred)

This is a terrible class 6 contest where the highest rated runner is judged to be a 55 animal. I don't think it'll take a lot of winning and one who could prove to be overpriced is the David Evans runner, Torteval. This 3 year old colt showed nothing on his first 6 visits to the racetrack but put in 2 improved efforts off this mark of 45 (although 1lb out here). First he ran over an extended mile at this course, in which his jockey tried to make all. He showed some bright speed to get the rest of the field on the stretch but couldn't maintain his efforts after the home turn once headed. He plugged on to come a 5 length 4th in a first time visor, which seemed to perk him up. Evans then decided to drop him in trip to run over 7f at Lingfield, where he didn't have the best of draws and was forced to sit towards the rear and race wide throughout. He made steady headway in his changed headgear (first time blinkers) and looked as if he'd be in the places but couldn't pick up quick enough when the pace was lifted, finishing a 3l 5th, which was possibly an even more improved performance on what he done here at Wolverhampton. The visor now goes back on and although not well drawn, he could find the step back in trip in his favour, especially with the polytrack currently riding quite slow. His relatively proven stamina over trips further than this could come into play and I believe he showed enough speed here to get involved over a sprint trip just shy of 6 furlongs. Torteval has a 7lb claimer on board to leave him at the bottom of the weights carrying only 8st and the young jockey has a decent record on the all weather. David Evans in a shrewd trainer so any money for this fellow would be very significant but the projected 14/1 seems much too big to me. It's a race that really scrapes the barrel in terms of horses with actual ability and I think this one could prove to be better than a 45 rated animal, although running off 46 here and 39 (crazy!) with the claimers claim taken into account. The Johnston and Williams runners demand respect but they'll be no price at all and don't look anything special, even for this level. I'll happily take a chance with small each way stakes on a horse who has shown much more lately than he has before.

Price supplied in the morning.

mixed up

Esprit_Skillz: D The best of luck today i'll follow you on this.

thesandeman

Around 10/1 atm.

Woddle

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers dude.

Quick one for today.

2:50 Wolverhampton - Torteval - 1pt e/w

Saw this too late I was looking at both torteval and crazy in love and I decided on the latter, best of luck.

TheJackAttack

The ponies being a bit of a disaster today! Trying to seek refugee with you pyro.. Fingers crossed

Woddle

Congrats on calling the top 3.

x PyRo

Cheers Woddle. Damn Johnston and his very quick horses.

Torteval finished 2nd, no match for the Mark Johnston runner but still ran a good effort. I might try and look at some of these lowly races more often. I can't get much worse anyways.

+1.40pts today.

Tiny profit but profit all the same.

x PyRo

Early one for tomorrow.

2:50 Wolverhampton - Just For Leo - 1pt @ 15/2 (Bet365)

Not a race for big stakes and this isn't a horse with inspiring results, but I believe he could have a good chance in what looks a relatively weak field. He's a 17 race maiden but seems to have little problem handling polytrack and may just have everything to suit. There's a fair bit of pace in what will be a truly run 5f, which should suit Just For Leo, who came a quarter length 2nd at this course when it was riding on the slow side of standard. He showed bright early speed that day and tried to make all of the running but was eventually worn down on the turn for home when pressed by the eventual winner. However, very little got into it from behind and he plugged on gamely to post one of his best all weather runs to date. That was a claimer though, and this is much tougher. Extra stamina could prove vital with the course likely to be riding similar to that day and I feel the step back to 5f here is just what's required. He then raced 2 days later at Lingfield, in a similar class 5 handicap to that of what he faces today. 3rd place was all he could muster over a the flying 5f but he was just 1 length away and posted an effort considered to be a step up on what he had done at Wolverhampton. He couldn't get to dominate from the front but stayed on gamely in the final furlong to close at the finish, again showing that along with his speed, he has plenty of stamina (if you could call it that) for the sprint distances. He's at his best when there's a good gallop and I'm nearly certain it'll be like that today, with horses who stay further that this trip likely to be in the shake up.

Just For Leo ran at Southwell on Sunday, posting a terrible effort but I don't think he travels at all well on the fibresand and is much better suited to Wolverhampton and Lingfield. He was outpaced and in rear throughout, but I don't feel that's a true reflection of his abilities and he should have a much better chance of gaining compensation for those 2 close efforts earlier on in the month. There shouldn't be any problem with running a couple of races in the space of 2 days, as he has done it before without showing up too badly. The draw in stall 8 hasn't been too kind to him but I don't think it'll have a major bearing on the race and stall 8 actually has a very good record in these 8 runner races, so hopefully it proves a positive this time around. The yard are in good form and had 2 winners today, plus my selection who finished 2nd. They run another horse in this race too but I'm not overly keen on his chances and he's readily passed over. Robert Walsh takes the ride, he's a very competent 7lb claimer and was the man on board for that close up 2nd over 6f here. He seems to do well on the all weather and from his 2 rides on Monday, he had a winner and a 2nd place. Walsh comes to Wolverhampton for just 1 ride and will hopefully make it count. He also seems to do well here having had 1 winner and 2 seconds from just 4 rides, which ain't bad going for such an inexperienced rider. His 7lb claim leaves my selection with just 8st 3lbs on his back, which is surely a help and effectively leaves him off a mark of 55, which understates his abilities. The 15/2 available on Just For Leo looks significantly too big to me, as I had him down as a 9/2 chance with solid claims on his best form. If he can run up to his true levels then he has a good chance in what is a very weak race, however, that's also the reason this is only a minimal bet. I can't go in with more than minimal stakes in a race full of inconsistent animals who could always spring a surprise. Fingers crossed that it's David Evans' runner who springs the surprise.

NaiveMelodies

I see Lewyn is running 2moro, step back to class 6, you getting involved or have you given up on him?

x PyRo

It's a claimer Stevo, and she's probably not too well in at the weights considering she's running averagely of late. She does like the track though and any of her better runs would see victory imo but I'm avoiding. I've lost enough on her to risk more in such a race. I'll be interested if the handicapper cuts her some slack and drops her a few lbs but until then, I'd keep well away.

Watch her win now!

NaiveMelodies

x PyRo wrote: »

It's a claimer Stevo, and she's probably not too well in at the weights considering she's running averagely of late. She does like the track though and any of her better runs would see victory imo but I'm avoiding. I've lost enough on her to risk more in such a race. I'll be interested if the handicapper cuts her some slack and drops her a few lbs but until then, I'd keep well away.

Watch her win now!

Cheers man, looks to go off at a short enough price so might see how the market goes in the morning!

x PyRo

3:20 Wolverhampton - Perlachy - 0.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (VC)

Small stakes and a very tentative selection, but I feel this 7 year old all weather specialist has a good chance of running a big race over this 6f trip. He's a 5 time course winner, 2 of which were over this trip just shy of 6 furlongs. If all goes as I expect them too then I think this could end up being run to favour horses who see out their races very well but take relatively close order to the pace, both of which usually apply to Perlachy. His last victory here was over 5f, in which he was lucky to hold on from the very fast finishing horse who finished second. It was however, a much more improved effort on what he was showing before, as he was either looking too slow for 5f or being outstayed over 6f. He's just 1lb higher than that run, which was 4 races ago and he also ran well in the race following that victory, when coming a 4l 4th to Sir Geoffrey (winner since) off a 2lb higher mark than what he runs off today. Derek Shaw's runner was unlucky in running as he could not get a clear run just over a furlong out and by the time he got room, the others had skipped away and his race was run. However, he did stay on to come 4th in what was a competitive handicap for the grade and I believe the way my selection stayed on from so far back could see him improve for the step up in trip.

Perlachy went to Southwell last twice, racing too handily over 5f there but still plodded along to come a 2.5l 4th of 11 behind the winner, Incomparable, whom he re-opposes here on 5lb better terms for that defeat, yet is nearly treble the odds of Dandy Nicholls' runner and also back on his favoured surface. The next run, and also his last race, was over 6f at Southwell, where he raced in rear in a contest where nothing got into it from off the pace. I'd happily overlook that run and expect that it should have him spot on for today. Derek Shaw's stable have had a few big priced winners of late and could well be in the money here again if this fellow shows up to what we know he can do. Kelly Harrison takes the ride and she seems to get on very well with the horse, having won on him twice and put in many other respectable efforts. She's a good jockey in my opinion and seems to be riding well of late, with 3 winners from her last 10 runners. Harrison only has one ride today and will hopefully make it count, at a track where she usually does well. Perlachy should be ideally suited by what should be a truly run 6f, over which he should be staying on as well as anything, assuming he can put that poor run from last time out behind. He has won off higher than this mark of 65 and gained his last 4 wins here, so the return to Wolverhampton may do the trick. Derek Shaw does have another runner in the field, one who has come in for a bit of overnight support but he's bang out of form and will need to show a lot more to win here, despite being eased by the handicapper. I'd much rather take a small each way punt on the course specialist, Perlachy, to overcome these crazy odds of 22/1 and put up a big fight to the market leaders. I had him down as a 14/1 shot, so I'm only playing minimal each way stakes, but he's not without a good shot of winning around the course where he goes best.

dennymin

well fella,

haven't been on in a while , how are you getting on with it?

x PyRo

Hey Denny, haven't seen you around in a while alright! Hope all is well.

It hasn't been going well for me since cleaning up in September but I'm just looking forward to Cheltenham and the return of the flat season. Still very well in profit over the last year so I can't complain too much but I've dropped a fair bit. It'll all be flying sky high again once I get my flat season back. Hopefully anyways.

x PyRo

Arghhhhhh.

Just For Leo was crap. Ominous drift before the off told the story of his chances.

Perlachy had to make do with a position out the back but ran on like a steam train to be denied a place in a photo by another fast finishing outsider. Went off at 25/1 too. When it's not your day (or month)...

Getting closer though.

-2pts today.

x PyRo

Perlachy traded at around the 2.4 mark earlier. Still gutted that he was held up so far back.

Only one bet today.

7:00 Kempton - Iron Condor - 2.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (Bet365)

This class 4 contest over 2m at Kempton looks to be wide open but I believe it'll be run to suit Iron Condor, who steps up to 2m for the first time and boasts very good form figures here when running over 1m 4f on all bar one of his visits, the other being over 1f shorter than that. His course form reads - 2-1-1-2-2-5, which is very impressive given he's usually a horse who would be considered inconsistent, however, he seems to have improved since he began racing on the polytrack of Kempton. His first run came off a mark of 66 and he has subsequently improved 11lbs to run off 77, but all 3 of the 4 year old runners are getting a 7lb weight allowance for their age, which should prove vital over this 2 mile trip. All of his winning and impressive form is over 1m 4f but he is bred to stay 2 mile, even though he failed to see out 1m 6f on the turf. He's a much better all weather horse so I've no doubts that he should stay on with his usual game attitude over this extended distance. Iron Condor usually finishes out his races in good fashion and comes out well on most speed figures, however, I find him a little one paced and he's often left to grind out a finish as it takes him a while to pick up, which may have less influence over the extended trip that he now faces. Over 2 miles, he could possibly have the best turn of foot in the race, assuming he manages to stay and I believe he's the most suited to how the race will be run, as there are a fair few prominent racers in opposition, which should ensure a decent pace on which he usually thrives. He is a very strong traveler and always gives the impression that he'd make a very good stayer, so now it's his chance to prove that on the surface where he has run his best races.

Luke Morris takes the ride today on Iron Condor, to whom he has guided to success before and has been on board the progressive 4 year old on 8 occasions, clearly forming a good partnership as they've won once and finished second on 3 occasions. Morris is having a great time of it over the winter and has started 2011 like a man possessed, with 10 winners from 54 winners, giving him a mightily impressive 19% strike rate. Along with that, he has had a further 15 finishing in the places, so he's clearly doing something right. He rides the Kempton track very well and even shows a £15 LSP from his 400+ rides around the track. When riding for trainer James Eustace at Kempton, Morris shows a £22 LSP and has a decent 9% strike rate. The Eustace yard don't have too many runners over the Winter but had Iron Condor out 3 weeks ago for a run, in which he finished 5th over 1m 4f here. I'm not sure whether the yard were affected weather-wise, but that run is sure to have their only runner of the day spot on for the race ahead. He has been competitive in a class 3 event here, when finishing a half length 2nd to Spensley, who is a progressive type and was gaining victory to notch up a hat-trick, this is clearly very good form and a repeat would put my selection bang in contention now in a class 4 handicap where he is in receipt of weight from all, bar 2. In opposition, there are many good types to overcome but I believe that many are either under-priced, too high in the weights or unlikely to be suited to how the race is run. The James Eustace trained hold up performer fits the bill for me and if he runs to his abilities, sees out the trip and gets a good gallop, then he should be bang in contention. I feel the 10/1 is much too big and is based on his lack of experience over this trip, which I believe he should actually improve for, on breeding at least. I had him marked up as a fair 6/1 shot and maximum each way stakes are in order, for what is my only bet of the day. Hopefully he'll run to how I know he can and give me my first winner in what feels like a lifetime.

Bumsex

Radiator Rooney wins today at lingfield beating off stiff competition.
impressive,just letting ya know as she used be a previous selection.
went off 13/2 and traded at 20.0 on betfair..

best of luck tonight.

x PyRo

Iron Condor came where all good e/w shots do, 4th.

Stayed well but turned into a bit of a sprint as they went no gallop early on, which I pinned his hopes on. Disappointing.

-5pts on the day.

UrbanSea

Aw man those horses like coming 4th for you.Unlucky

x PyRo

Tell me about it dude! Just not clicking at the moment but that's life. Can't win all of the time.

Really looking forward to the flat coming back.

UrbanSea

Can't wait for it. You know it's the flat season when you see a 2 year old maiden at the Curragh and haven't a clue who to go for when none of them have ran before.
Tip:Avoid ALL Aidan O'Brian horses til early May or April.

x PyRo

2:50 Lingfield - One Way Or Another - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (VC)

This looks to be a very competitive class 4 handicap over 1 mile, but I believe Jeremy Gask's 8 year old could have a decent shout at claiming his 2nd victory in the UK. He's an Australian import who has only gained 1 career win here but has competed in much tougher fields than what he faces now. Last time out, One Way Or Another ran over 7 furlongs in a class 2 contest at Kempton, finishing a well beaten 9th of 12 from 5lbs out of the handicap. He now takes a big step down to class 4 level and runs off a mark of 80, 6lbs below his sole win in the UK. His previous 2 starts have been on the all-weather, with blinkers on over in adequate trips (6f at Wolves, 7f at Kempton) and now he returns to his optimum trip of 1 mile, with no headgear. He seems to handle polytrack without much problems and I feel the Lingfield (first time here) course could play into his hands as he likes to run on from behind. The horse has clearly being going through the motions lately but he was competitive off higher marks and could get involved here if he puts his best foot forward.

There should be a good gallop here, with Miami Gator lining up and prone to blasting off in front when given the chance. It looks likely that he may get an easy lead and set it up for something to quicken off a fast pace, with my selection likely to be suited perfectly by this. I was originally siding with Miami Gator, who is in the form of his life but I believe it could be hard to turn around the form with Blue Moon, who is progressive, consistent and only 1lb worse off for a 1/4 length defeat of that horse last time out. There are many other in-form dangers but I think that One Way Or Another is still the one to side with, as he's potentially very well handicapped to compete against horses who are less talented than him, assuming he gets back to something like his old form when he was regularly competitive in higher grades. James Millman takes the ride, which is very strange given he has only ridden on 2 occasions for Gask, both back in '07. Millman is a decent jockey, nothing special but he has a decent strike rate and is overdue a winner. Jeremy Gask isn't in great form either but he does alright at Lingfield and this looks like his best chance of a winner today, as he only brings one other down and I don't fancy it. I find it very interesting that this is the first time in well over a year that the horse gets his ideal trip, which is 1 mile. He has loads of ability, speed & stamina when he gets going and I think that the race should be run to suit and bring it all to the fore. He was staying on very well over 6 furlongs at Wolverhampton in November from a 2lb higher mark and if the removal of the headgear coupled with the extra distance works, then I think he could have an exceptional chance of placing at least. 20/1 looks vastly overpriced and I had him down as an 8/1 chance, however due to the amount of potential improver's in the race I'm only playing minimal each way stakes. Hopefully he'll turn up and show his true abilities, which would see him go very close.

x PyRo

4:20 Wolverhampton - Carnival Dream - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365)

There's not much I can say about this race, as it's a truly shocking class 7 contest where the highest rated horse has an official rating of 49. However, I've watched some of Carnival Dream's recent runs and I think she could be well in here off a mark of 48 with Adam Carter taking off a further 5lbs. She was staying on well last time out in a similar contest having completely blown the start and a better positioning today could see her in a good light. Her overall record is awful, as her has only gained victory once in 47 starts but it was over 6f here last year, when he won easily by just over 2 lengths in an apprentice handicap with Carter on board. That was the only time Carter rode her and he managed to get a good tune out her, which many other have tried and failed to do. Carnival Dream has a much better draw today in stall 2, compared to 11 last time, and with a good break, she should have a much better chance of getting a good position. A repeat of her last performance would suffice if kept closer to the pace to ensure she doesn't have to come into the home turn in the middle of the track. The jockey is riding well of late and has a fine 14% strike rate at Wolverhampton and a relatively big LSP of £18. I think he could have yet another positive effect on this horse and potentially land this shocking race. Judging by current prices on the exchange, I'd expect it'll be priced around the 10/1 mark, which is worth a small bet. Awful race with awful horses and there's not much else I can say but it does look very winnable for this 6 year old mare, assuming she can get a nice position.

x PyRo

7:20 Wolverhampton - Dahaam - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

This is probably the highlight of what is a typically poor Wolverhampton card but I believe that David Simcock's lightly raced 4 year old could well be the answer here. He's already with his 3rd trainer, having previously run for Saeed Bin Suroor and Brian Meehan, but he shaped very well on debut for Simcock when coming an ever closer 3/4 length 2nd to Spectait over 1f shorter in December. That was also here at this course but he now steps up in trip, which should be ideal. He ran a good race last time out under the guidance of Hayley Turner, who held him up in rear and produced a late run to grab 2nd on the line. Dahaam got outpaced around 3f from home and looked in real trouble on the back of what was a truly run race, but he then stayed on very well to suggest that a step up in trip is exactly what is needed and he now gets that. He may of also needed that race on the back of nearly 3 months off the track, so it's plausible that he could be much better now, especially as Simcock will know a lot more about the horse.

Dahaam's only career success was over a mile at Kempton, in which he won a decent maiden after making all under Frankie Dettori. It was interesting how he was ridden prominently on all his starts before coming to Simcock's yard, who clearly see him as a hold up horse and it so nearly paid dividends last time out but George Baker's intelligent maneuver to slip the field by a couple of lengths ended up giving my selection little chance. There doesn't seem to be too much pace on here and that could well be good for Dahaam, who will hopefully avoid getting outpaced like he did when the tempo quickened last time out. The only worry I have is the man on top, Jamie Spencer, who I can never catch right. However, he has a fine 33% strike rate on the all-weather for Simcock and seems to be riding relatively well lately. He has also ridden this fellow before and will hopefully get a better tune out of him now that they seem to prefer holding the horse up, which sometimes isn't the best idea when Spencer's riding but I'll take my chances here. Simcock's yard are bang in form and he only sends this fellow out today. When Spencer rides here for this yard, he has 3 wins from 6 rides (50% SR) and if you want a more favourable stat, he's 2 from 2 with horses aged 4 or older, which doesn't matter but I like statistics! Spencer isn't too much of a danger when on board over middle distances as he tends to unleash his horses at the right time, but when it's a sprint race, he's most annoying but still high class on occasion. I think the horse could do all the talking here in a race which looks relatively open but he fits the bill perfectly as the one open to the most progression. 7/2 looks value to me as he's a 2/1 shot in my book and I don't think the price will be around for long. Medium stakes at a very nice price.

Nulty

I was tempted to go with Miami Gator there but its all just too competitive. No real reason why he should beat Blue Moon as you say. Looked at Ocean Countess at 16/1 last night but lost Kieran Fox's claim. Favorite (Blue Moon) looks the most likely winner but couldn't have a bet....90% of the field has a chance. I even like Bawaadi at a price. Inef is a totally unknown quantity too.

Front runners went very well at Lingfield lately...pace angle a bit different to the norm

break a leg

x PyRo

Dahaam came 2nd beaten by a neck, Spencer done his best though! The other two were 5th, both ran respectable race, just not good enough.

-6pts on the day.

Surely due a winner soon.

UrbanSea

Keep the aul head up my man.