PyRo's Horse Bets.

dennymin

you have proven that you could pick them before fella!! it'll happen again!!

x PyRo

Cheers lads, bound to click at some stage. This is an awful run.

4:15 Lingfield - Cut And Thrust - 2pts e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Well bred 5 year old who should be much better than he has proved to be, but I think he has his best chance to gain a victory that has eluded him for just over 2 years. He's a former Michael Jarvis trained gelding, who cost 85,000gns as a yearling but never justified that price tag and was eventually sold out of Jarvis' for 5,000gns in October of '09. However, he's highly interesting now returning to the scene of 2 of his best performances, having won here over C&D and run a fine race when coming clear with polytrack specialist, Sarah's Art, in a similar handicap over C&D when making his debut for the Mark Wellings yard. That was a very impressive run and he was only caught in the final strides of the race, in which the leading 2 pulled over 2 lengths clear of the field having taken advantage of the pace setters going off to fast in front. I'm expecting a similarly run race here, as there are a number of front runners in the field which may set it up for something coming from behind, which could be Cut And Thrust, who seems highly suited by truly run races. His course and distance form of 1-2 shows he handles conditions with ease and he hasn't been running too badly prior to a 2 month break, which he now returns from. His record fresh reads ; 6-9-4, but that doesn't tell the whole story as he wasn't beaten too far on those occasions and all were at Kempton, a track he'd be much less suited to, despite having won there before.

Last time out, Cut And Thrust was sent off as a 9/2 shot in a similar contest at Wolverhampton. The final result of 7th place from 10 runners doesn't look in any way impressive, however, he was on the inside rail when making a move but couldn't get a clear run through and it was game over. That's the worst place to be positioned at Wolverhampton and I think the 4 length defeat shouldn't be taken as a bad performance in a race that didn't pan out to suit, so hopefully things go better here today. Liam Jones takes the ride today, for the 2nd time on this fellow. He's bang in form and riding at the top of his game having had 9 winners from 29 rides since the beginning of December. The only time he rode Cut And Thrust was on quick ground at Leicester, in which he finished last but he's not a good horse on the turf at all. Jones only comes for 1 ride today and rode a good winner here at Lingfield yesterday. The Mark Wellings yard didn't have a winner in all of 2010 but they don't have many horses at all and only had 26 runners in the whole year. Wellings travels a total of 320 miles to bring out his only runner of the day to his favourite track and I'm hoping that it's not all in vein, as the horse is clearly suited to Lingfield and looks very well handicapped now that he's on his last winning mark and 2lbs lower than when losing out narrowly to the rapid finishing Sarah's Art. The key to his chances are a very good gallop, which I'm anticipating and hoping for, as he's bred to get further but has lots of speed. The "slingshot" effect at Lingfield seems exactly what he enjoys and he'll hopefully come into the home straight down the middle of the track before powering home. He's drawn in stall 11, which is usually not a place to be but it should ensure he'll get a nice sit on the outside, where I'd much rather see him positioned as he'll not end up on the rail like last time out at Wolverhampton. I can't really get my head around the fact that he's priced as the 20/1 outsider of the field, as he's an 8/1 shot in my book with very solid place claims. I'm playing decent each way stakes here as he's vastly overpriced and I don't expect it to be around come race time, although he rarely ever shortens in the market. There are many dangers in what's a trappy affair but I believe he's the best handicapped and most likely to be suited by how this could pan out, so hopefully it'll all go to plan. If there's a slow gallop then I wouldn't give him much hope but it seems likely that they will go off fairly hard in front and play into the hands of this well handicapped 5 year old.

thesandeman

Youre head to head with Hughs 3pointer. Ive covered the forecast just in case. (Got advised price on HTs as well as I was actually on the phone backing yours when his selection came up. Hope its a good omen and one or both of them click.

x PyRo

Cut And Thrust finished 5th, less than a length away from a place. They went slow enough up front which didn't suit so I'd say it was a decent run. Just not good enough in the end.

-4pts on the day. Bank sorted tomorrow.

Super Saturday coming up? Yes please.

x PyRo

Early one for tomorrow before the price disappears.

2:55 Ascot - Notus De La Tour - 3pts @ 6/1 (WillHill)

Reasoning later...

UrbanSea

Just looking at that race actually. Thanks for changing the name of the log. Looking forward to a good Saturday hopefully.Price gone aswell,5/1.

x PyRo

Price still disappearing.

12:40 Ascot - Lordsbridge - 1pt @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Yet to win over fences and thoroughly exposed in the main but this strong traveling 9 year old has improved his jumping on his last 3 outings. 6 of his previous 7 efforts over fences were shockingly bad, with only 1 relatively good effort which was a 9 length 2nd to Call Me A Legend (winner off 10lbs higher since) in this race last year, which has since changed in distance to be 2 furlongs further. The extra distance should be ideal for a horse who was outpaced that day, plus his jumping has also improved since, so I'm expecting a big run. Lordsbridge now runs off 2lbs lower than when finishing 2nd that day and has 7lb claimer, Ed Cookson, taking the ride, with his claim potentially invaluable as it leaves the Andy Turnell trained 9 year old with only 9st 12lbs on his back. He should also have little problem with dealing with the give in the ground, having competed well on similar going in this race last year, along with winning over hurdles on Good to Soft also.

Lordsbridge is trained by Andy Turnell, who hasn't had too many winners of late but has had some success with his chasers going to Ascot, with 2 winners from 6 runners (33%) and 2 further placing. I'm hoping he'll be enhancing that course record here and I think his charge could be a very dangers threat to the Nicky Henderson trained Osric, who is currently the 6/4 favourite on the back of winning what was a weak novices chase, so he's absolutely no value here off top weight and a harsh looking handicap mark. Ed Cookson takes the ride on my selection, he's a decent 7lb claimer who does reasonably well for this trainer, having gained victory in 7 of his 75 rides, with a further 10 placing. He's yet to win on board this horse but Lordsbridge has improved his jumping significantly of late and if there's ever a time that he'll win a race over fences, then I think it's now. He has had 4 runs this season and should be fully wound up for this, the yard seem in relatively good order and this is their only runner for the day. The 11/2 looks too big to me, as he's a 4/1 shot in my book and I believe his usual strong traveling style could culminate in his first victory over fences, as everything is likely to suit. Small bet as it's hard to oppose any Henderson horse at the moment but he has pretty solid claims.

Letyourselfgo

Just picked him out myself this very second, that's another tick in the positive for this selection

Nulty

We're all looking at the same race....weird.

Turnell is 2 from 9 at Ascot apparently.

UrbanSea

Nulty wrote: »

We're all looking at the same race....weird.

Turnell is 2 from 9 at Ascot apparently.

I'm not,I'm looking at PORN


ano,Criminal Minds.

UrbanSea

I was looking at that race,I'd probably avoid it. No real great each way shouts either with just 2 places if Premeir Sagas doesn't go,and unlikely to.

Letyourselfgo

Letyourselfgo wrote: »

Just picked him out myself this very second, that's another tick in the positive for this selection

Just re read this and I should clarify that the extra tick is because you selected it and not me

x PyRo

1:50 Ascot - Sparky May - 1pt @ 7/1 (Bet365)

6 year old Mare who is still unbeaten over hurdles having won on all 3 of her racecourse outings, steadily improving as she went along too. Her first 2 wins came around the 2mile mark but when upped to 2m 5f at Newbury she proved most impressive when scoring by 27l, beating Alverstone (reopposing here) and some decent types despite having to shoulder the burden of a double penalty. The winning margin flatters to deceive as her nearest rival, Line Freedom, fell at the last but she would of run out a comfortable winner regardless. She has been raised 11lbs for that victory but now takes a big step up to Grade 2 level, having won previously at class 3 & 4 level, but I believe she could be something special and is certainly open to a lot more progression given that she's only had 7 career starts, of which 3 have been over hurdles. On official ratings she has 7lbs to find with Nicky Hendersons runner and 3lbs with Nigel Twiston-Davies' but given the price differences and her potential to be even better now upped in trip, I'd much rather take a chance on her, with the other 2 rivals 6/4 & 2/1 respectively.

The main worry is whether Sparky May will see out 3 miles or not, as the way she travels would suggest she mightn't but she seemed to see out the 2m 5f at Newbury with ease and showed a nice turn of foot in the run in, which could be very handy over this trip if she can travel with her usual ease. Conditions shouldn't be a problem and her jockey, Keiran Burke, has been on board all of her career starts, so he'll know exactly what to do, whether she's up to it is another story but at the prices, she's worth a shot. Her jumping isn't perfect by any means but it should begin to improve at this stage and that may help to bring the improvement needed to beat the 2 market leaders. Trainer, Patrick Rodford, hasn't had too many runners of late but 8 of his last 20 runners have won, with the majority being nice prices, so he's clearly doing something right. The fact that he now steps Sparky May up to this league speaks volumes in my opinion and I'd guess that they're expecting a big run from their stable star. 7/1 looks generous to me and I'd have her down as a 5/1 shot, which isn't a huge difference but I fancy her to run a big race here. Small bet again as it's tough to oppose the 2 at the head of the market, but I'm hopeful she'll run them close.

UrbanSea

Haha that struck me as the kind of horse you'd go for earlier,like that Marsh Wobbler horse the other week

x PyRo

I like my unexposed potential improver's! Small bet though.

x PyRo

2:25 Ascot - Mad Max - 2pts @ 11/2 (Coral - w/o the fav)

Lightly campaigned 9 year old who I've backed on numerous occasions, including when he was 4th of 18 in the Powers Gold Cup Chase over 2m 5f in Cheltenham. He ran a good race that day but I think he'll prove a lot more effective over this 2m 1f trip. Mad Max is an absolutely massive horse but he's not short of speed for these types of contests and he's 2 from 2 when going right handed, including at this course when winning over hurdles at the back end of '08. He has only had 8 starts since but won a Grade 2 and finished 4th in the 2010 running of the Arkle at the festival, despite making a massive mistake 2 out, which cost him any chance of winning. He's a fine jumper at the best of times, has a wonderful turn of foot and travels very well through his races, so I think he's a very good bet to finish 2nd to Master Minded, who is nearly impossible to oppose here so I'm betting on the "without the favourite" market at 11/2.

The soft-ish ground shouldn't be too much trouble to Mad Max and I expect his 2 seasonal runs should have him spot on to produce his best here. On official ratings, he has a bit to find with a lot of them but given Nicky Henderson's recent form, he shouldn't be too far away with everything likely to suit. Barry Geraghty has decided to ride stablemate Petit Robin instead, which leaves David Bass on my selection. Bass has never been on board this fellow before but he's a capable jockey and has a 21% strike rate for Nicky Henderson, with 1 win and 2 2nd's from 5 rides at Ascot. Mad Max is obviously the stables "second choice" for this race but I believe he could have the beating of his stablemate with the drop in trip likely to bring an improved effort. He may not have the beating of Paul Nicholls' rejuvenated Master Minded but he could well have the beating of the rest of the field, which makes the 11/2 a very nice price, especially as I had him down as a 3/1 shot without the favourite. Small/medium bet on Nicky Henderson's charge to come back to form and run a big race.

x PyRo

Previously posted..

2:55 Ascot - Notus De La Tour - 3pts @ 6/1 (WillHill)

Lightly raced 5 year old who joined David Pipe after winning a decent 16 runner French hurdle by 20 lengths on heavy ground. He then won impressively on debut for Pipe, when scooting 6 length clear of a decent type from the Nicky Henderson yard on testing ground at Plumpton. Notus De La Tour then ran his most impressive race to date next time out, when finishing a 9 length 2nd to Sanctuaire in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham Festival. That form hasn't exactly been franked but David Pipe's charge had to give away 7lbs that day and possibly wasn't suited by the relatively quick ground. He'll be much better suited to the softer going today and they should go a good gallop with Lough Derg in the field, which is another positive. My selection has run since finishing down the field in a Grade 1 hurdle at Aintree, where he was reportedly over the top on the back of that Cheltenham run. I'd expect Pipe will have him bang on for this contest and the 7lbs he receives from Soldatino could prove vital here.

AP McCoy gets the ride on Notus De La Tour and he'll certainly be a big help to this inexperienced 5 year old. McCoy has a fine 34% strike rate when riding for David Pipe (3 from 4 here) and they're 2 from 2 so far this year. The Pipe yard are bang in form of late with winners all over the place with 13 winners from 50 runners in the past few weeks. Pipe has also won the last 3 runnings of this race and I think he'll be making it 4. McCoy won the previous 2 before Pipe's treble so hopefully that means this is the perfect partnership to gain success here. It'll be a big scalp to beat last years Triumph Hurdle winner, Soldatino, but I think my selection is more than capable of doing so, especially with so much in his favour and overnight money speaking volumes so far. I got the 6/1 when I posted this up earlier and he's now around the 7/2-4/1 mark in every bookmaker, which I expect to get even smaller throughout the morning. This race is between the main 2 in the market in my opinion and I think David Pipe's looks the best bet, even at the current odds. I had him down as a 3/1 shot, which he's not far away from now but he may go off even shorter than that. Medium sized stakes already played at a very nice price.

UrbanSea

Good luck with that one especially. Projected Sp was 12/1,big difference in that and 7/2 and shortening.Still can't believe Lough Derg is rated so high,handicapper doing no favours for that horse.

x PyRo

3:15 Haydock - Palypso De Creek - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill)

I'm constantly backing this fellow and I'm not giving up. He's yet to win a chase on British solid but he's a Graded winner in France and came 2nd to Our Vic in this race last year when 6lbs out of the handicap. He's now 4lbs lower than that run, mainly due to failing to complete on his last 3 outings but should have everything to suit here today, assuming he managed to stay upright. He was sent off as the 5/2 favourite on his penultimate start, which was over C&D. King Fontaine was in opposition that day and is once again here but they meet on much different terms here. My selection fell that day before the race was about to unfold after making a sloppy mistake at the 7th fence but if he stayed upright then I reckon he had a great chance, especially as he was well fancied having been punted from 5/1 early doors into 5/2. Palypso De Creek meets that runner on 19lb better terms today and if he can run his usual race then I can't understand how he's double the price of Malcolm Jefferson's runner. The softer going today is also much more in my selections favour, as he only seems to win with cut in the ground, so I'd blame the ground for his poor showing when running in a Listed contest at Cheltenham last time out. He ran no race at all and was pulled up 2 out.

On last years form alone, Palypso De Creek has a very good chance here. He's reunited with Tom Sidall for the first time this season and he was the jockey who was on board for his only British racecourse success, a 3 mile hurdle at Towcester on debut for Charlie Longsdon. The yard seem to be in good knick lately, with 2 winners so far this year but many more making the frame and going very close. Longsdon has a 21% strike rate at Haydock (43% with Sidall), with 3 winners and 6 2nd's from 14 runners, this is their only charge today. I reckon he'll have this horse spot on for today and with everything to suit he should run another massive race. Haydock is ideally suited to him and with the ground currently very soft, he'll be in his element. A repeat of the form behind Our Vic would see him go very close to winning this and the 14/1 available is huge. I had him down as a fair 8/1 shot with very solid place claims and I'm hoping for that at least. Medium each way stakes at a price that's much too big to turn down.

UrbanSea

11 points bet,good luck fella,hopefully 110 back :pac:

UrbanSea

EDIT:Haydock Park abandoned with Gowran

x PyRo

Two little mice fell in a bucket of cream. The first mouse quickly gave up and drowned. The second mouse, wouldn't quit. He struggled so hard that eventually he churned that cream into butter and crawled out. Gentlemen, as of this moment, I am that second mouse.

:pac:

Sparky May wins. What a lovely mare.

UrbanSea

Nice winner.You could call her the winner a circuit to go

thesandeman

Lolz.

Nulty

She did that well

x PyRo

Lordsbridge finished a distant 4th, never got into it and jumped left throughout. Don't think I'll be punting him again.

Sparky May won after jumping and traveling well throughout. She got very tired towards then end but still held on from one of the best mares out there to score by 4 lengths. Plus it's my first winner after a run of 26 losers, shocking!

Mad Max came 2nd (w/o Master Minded) and 3rd overall. Ran a good race but raced to prominently for my liking and finished a fair bit behind.

Notus De La Tour was unbelievably disappointing. Took ages to pick up and looked rusty over his hurdles. He finished 4th in the end but should come on big time for that run.

+1pt today. Tiny profit but getting that elusive winner has me happy enough. More to come I hope.

Bank sorted later.

Nulty

Sparky May 14s for the David Nicholson...I'm interested. Are you?

UrbanSea

Can't say I'd be

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

Can't say I'd be

Go on....elaborate :rolleyes: :P

x PyRo

I'm very interested. Clearly a top notch animal and potentially a lot more to come. I love the way she jumps and travels, should be ideal at Cheltenham. 14's look tasty and I'll be snapping up some of that soon.

The way she scooted clear of Carole's Legacy was top notch, especially on her first try at 3miles. Best of luck with the bet Nulty, I'll be following in soon.