PyRo's Horse Bets.

CriticEyes

Class. Great shout!

x PyRo

Cheers CriticEyes, even taking out the money aspect, this will do wonders for my punting confidence, which disappears after a few losers on the bounce. So you can imagine what last month was like. Pure depression!

I like February!

argosy2006

http://rynobjj.files.wordpress.com/2010/11/told-ya.jpg?w=335&h=295

x PyRo

lol cheers Argosy!

3:40 Lingfield - Maslak - 3pts @ 22/1 (VictorChandler)

On the face of it, this may prove to be a bit of a wild bet. However, I feel that the Peter Hiatt trained 7 year old has massive claims here, especially when you look at his overall record at Lingfield. His form around here (around 12-13f) reads ; 2-6-1-1-9-4-2-2, which is incredibly impressive and the 2 victories were off 6 & 10lb higher marks than todays mark of 74, which gives him a massive chance now that he's dropped in grade. His course form with Chris Catlin reads ; 1-1-2, so they obviously strike up a fine partnership and Catlin only rides twice at Lingfield before heading off to Kempton, with his other ride being a 12 race maiden that I'd find hard to fancy, despite it being a debutanté for the Mark Prescott yard. I'm pinning my hopes that he'll be seeing Maslak over the line in 1st and increasing their fine course record in what looks a relatively weak affair over this 1m 4f trip.

The only reason I can come up with for Maslak's current 22/1 price tag is his 2 most recent runs, which were poor to say the least. However, he won very impressively at Southwell over this trip at the back end of November, when beating Yossi by just over 2 lengths. That horse has since finished a head 2nd to an 85 rated animal in a claimer, when 16lbs 'wrong' at the weights, so I feel it's decent form indeed. That win for my selection was off a mark of 72, which is only 2lbs lower than what he runs off today. Mainly as he flopped when turned out 5 days after that victory and once again at the back end of December at Kempton, where he was destroyed and finished last in a class 4 contest. I believe there's valid excuses for both, with the first being that he may need some time between his races and was possibly done out of any chance by the quicker pace over a shorter distance. The second run was possibly due to a lack of work, with the trainer reporting that the frost had severely hindered his horses from getting any word done. I expect that he'll be much fitter now and they seem to have no problems with the weather now, after Peter Hiatt firing in 4 winners from his last 10 runners with a further 2 placing, all at decent odds. He also reported that Maslak wasn't fully ready for that win at Southwell and said he should come on for that run, so assuming he does indeed improve for it, then I'm expecting a bold showing now that he's returned to his AW track of choice.

This isn't a very competitive race at all in my opinion. With the likely favourite Zafranagar having proved nothing yet and ran out an easy winner of an awful maiden over C&D 2 weeks ago. He's much too short at 3/1 and I'd much rather oppose him than hop on the bandwagon now. Beaubrav was another impressive winner last time out in a similar class 5 contest, but he's now 8lbs higher for beating a few glorified trees and I'm expecting this to be much tougher for him, as it would take a career best to gain victory. So at 3/1, he's most avoidable and bordering on lay worthy. A couple of others come into the equation but at the prices, Maslak is definitely the one to be on from a value perspective. He'll get a race run to suit and is a 4 time class 4 winner, so he's definitely up to standard here. Assuming he's race fit and feeling no ill effects of those 2 poor efforts, then I expect a very close run from a horse who is deemed to have little if any chance by the odds compilers. I've actually marked him up as an 8/1 shot, which is obviously much shorter than the current prices available and I'm hoping he'll go well for the in-form Peter Hiatt yard, who only bring 2 to Lingfield today. Medium sized stakes here at a price that's too good to turn down. It could be an absolute gift, or it could be an absolute disaster. We'll find out come 3:45pm.

x PyRo

Maslak ran a shocker. Got the lead early on but was constantly pressured throughout and was beaten turning for home. I still think he's potentially well handicapped and I'll keep an eye on him next time out.

-3pts on the day and I've a couple planned for tomorrow.

x PyRo

2:00 Southwell - Clever Omneya - 2pts @ 5/2 (Bet365)

This isn't normally a race I'd get involved with but I think that the relatively lightly raced US bred Mare will relish the return to Southwell and gain her second C&D success. Clever Omneya is currently trading at around the 100/30 mark on the exchange and that looks a perfectly acceptable price given her highly impressive win here back in December, in which she scored by an easy 5 lengths on her Southwell debut off a mark of 47. She ran under a penalty next time out but was racing at Kempton, the race seemed to come too soon for her and she finished a well beaten 11 of 14. However, that was her second run in a short space of time, having won at Southwell on the back of a 6 month lay off, so it may have been all too much for this very well bred Mare. I think todays race should prove much more to her liking, and despite a 10lb higher mark than her latest victory, she should get competitive at least.

Clever Omneya is bred to be much better than this mark of 57, as her $125,000 price tag as a yearling would suggest. However, she hasn't lived up to expectations but it's quite possible that she needed to run at a track like Southwell, where the fibresand surface is exactly to her liking. They should go a good gallop here and that will play into her hands, although it's quite possible that she'll be up around the pace herself. This is an all-fillies contest, with only 5 in opposition and given her style, that should suit. Franny Norton takes the reins again and he was the jockey who was on board for he C&D success 6 weeks ago. He's a jockey I rate highly and he is riding well at the moment, plus this is his only ride at Southwell before heading off for one more at Wolverhampton in the evening. The Jenkins yard are in good form of late and do well at Southwell, so they'll hopefully keep that record going. All in all, I feel the potential 3/1 available will be worth a smallish win bet in what is an open but very winnable contest. Clever Omneya shaped as if a fair rise in the weights wouldn't be against her and despite a 10lb higher mark, she still looks well handicapped to win at this course again. I marked her up as the 6/4 clear favourite and I think she has a great chance of gaining victory once again.

x PyRo

3:30 Southwell - Mister Green - 2pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

First impressions would lead me to believe that this will be a truly run race and the winner will more than likely come from off the pace. So although he has never run at Southwell, I'm going to take a chance of the potentially very well handicapped Mister Green to gain victory here. He's a previously high class animal on the flat, having ran well at Group & Listed level around Lingfield. He reached a peak rating of 96 but has since ran terribly at all sorts of trips before showing up much more like himself over 7 furlongs at Lingfield last time out, when well supported from 25/1 early doors, into an SP of 10/1. He stayed on well for pressure but the 7f trip probably isn't his ideal, nor is this 1 mile trip, but they way it'll pan out should be in his favour, assuming he takes to the surface.

Mister Green was beaten by less than a length last time out, which was a hugely improved effort considering he has failed to make the frame in nearly a year. His last win was off a 12lb higher mark and assuming he can come on from that recent run, then he could prove to be very well in here, in a race that he'd be capable of winning with ease if on song. James Doyle gets the nod again, having been on board him for the first time when getting a good tune out of him last time out. Doyle is a jockey I rate very highly and he's riding very well of late, plus he has been on board this trainers last 2 winners in the last couple of weeks. The David Flood yard do well at Southwell and have a 14% strike rate here. Assuming Flood has this horse back to anything like his old self, then he should run a good race here. The headgear that was on for the first time last time out is on once again, which seems a positive to me, if it has the desired effect once again. Of the opposition, the lightly races Mr Emirati looks well handicapped and a potential improver. However, at 11/4 I don't want to get involved with a horse who may not be suited to the good gallop here. The main danger looks to be San Antonio, who won impressively over C&D when scoring by 9 lengths. However, he's now 11 years old and that may have just been a flash in the pan. He's priced up at 3/1 here and faces competition for the lead, both of those things would put me off straight away. There is a few other dangers but David Flood's 5 year old may have a lot more to give off this sort of mark and at 6/1, I'm happy enough to take a chance on him handling the surface. It's a wide open contest but I marked him up as a 4/1 chance, so he's worth a small/medium bet. Hopefully he'll run to his old abilities and gain his 3rd success of his career, at what looks to be a very nice price.

x PyRo

4:00 Southwell - Guto - 1pt @ 7/1 (Betfred)

Not a race for big stakes but this horse may be a decent enough price in what looks a very winnable contest. He's a 4 time C&D winner and is running well at present, making the frame more often than not. It's over a year since Guto tasted success but he's now 13lbs lower than that success and 8lbs lower than his last C&D success, which was in August of '09. Assuming he runs to the level of his close up 3rd behind Residency last time out, then I think he'll have a good chance of going close here, at likely odds of around the 8/1 mark. He's from the Bill Ratcliffe yard, who don't have too many horses but seem to do quite well around Southwell, with 11 winners from 101 runners. Matthew Cosham takes the ride, and he has been on board this fellow 3 times, with form reading ; 3-2-4, which is quite good considering this is a horse that takes a lot of getting used to and usually needs a lot of coaxing along. Cosham is a good young jockey and takes off a valuable 7lbs from his claim, which could be vital to the horses chance of winning here.

Guto is decently drawn in stall 7, should get a race run to suit and possibly has his best chance of gaining victory in a long time. The 2nd horse in his last race has since come out and won, also under this jockey, so the form may not be too bad and I'm hopeful of a big run. Cape Royal also interested me at a price around the 14/1 mark, but he's unreliable in the main and is 0 from 25 on the AW, so I've passed over him. Cheveyo also came into my calculations as he's running quite well of late but may not be good enough and the likely price around 9/2 would be enough to put me off. A fair few others could have cases made for them but at around the 8/1 mark, Guto gets the nod. He's relatively consistent, goes well around here, potentially well handicapped and also a decent price. I expect him to make the frame but I expect a fair few of them to do so, so it's only a minimum stake bet, at hopefully a nice price.

x PyRo

6:00 Wolverhampton - Beetuna - 1pt @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Competitive looking class 4 contest here, which should be run at a good gallop given the number of potential pacemakers in the field. Assuming they do so, I'm expecting the David Bourton trained 6 year old, Beetuna, to be in with a good chance of gaining his 2nd C&D success. He's previously trained by Bryan Smart and had a spell out in France, where he won twice and ran in some decent races. He has since returned to Britain but is yet to see the winners enclosure in 7 attempts. However, a replication of his penultimate start over 1 furlong longer at this course would put him in with a good chance. He finished 2nd to West End Lad, who wasn't for catching on going described as 'Standard to Slow', which wasn't in my selections favour as he just couldn't pick up but still ran well. The 3rd placed horse, Kidlat, has won twice since. The 4th placed horse, Buaiteor, has won since and looks a very good yardstick. Even the horse who finished last has won twice since, so the form looks decent and I'm hoping it'll count for something here.

Beetuna is probably better over further, but if they go off hard in front and turn it into a stamina testing mile, then I think he's ideally suited and in with a big chance. He had 2 months off after that 2nd placed effort and reappeared just over a week ago. He finished 4 lengths behind The Lock Master, but could only manage 8th place. Assuming he has come out of that race well, he should definitely strip fitter for it and I expect a better showing. That was a weaker contest than this but I don't think it was his true running and he seemed exceptionally one paced, considering it was ran at a decent gallop. However, he's now a good price because of that run and I think he could pull off a mini shock in this company, if he doesn't get outpaced, which is possible if he can't keep with the likely early pace. Sam Hitchcott takes the ride, on what is his only mount of the day and he was on board this fellow last twice. I rate Sam as a good jockey and hopefully he'll be able to give trainer David Bourton his 3rd career success. The 14/1 looks a perfectly acceptable price, but due to the tough nature of the race I'm only having a minimum stakes bet. He's a 10/1 shot in my book and I'm hopeful of a good run if things go to plan.

That's me done.

Sykk

Quick update: Guto is 10/1 @ paddy power. (4:00 - Southwell)

Good luck!

Nulty

His run in November looks very promising now from a draw two stalls closer to the rail. Especially as the jockey dropped the whip in that race

x PyRo

Depressing day.

Clever Omneya improved on her run last time out but not on her C&D win. She finished a well beaten 2nd but the winner looks well ahead of the handicapper and I think there could be another win in her yet, although she'll probably get another few lbs for coming 2nd.

Mister Green drifted ominously in the betting and was well beaten by half way. Whether he didn't handle the surface or he wasn't out to try is up for debate but it sure wasn't impressive. If there's any money for him back around Lingfield again I'll be getting on.

Guto ran a decent race, just not good enough as usual. Finished in 5th place but was under pressure a fair bit from home, as always. Seemed to be running on before his exertions took their toll and he stayed on at the one pace. I had a feeling Shaw's runner would be dangerous again despite a 4lb rise but there was enough to put me off, unfortunately.

Beetuna was backed before the off, going from 14's to 9/1. However, he was very disappointing and was well beaten half a mile from home. Still keeping an eye on him though, as I wouldn't think a win is too far away but he'll need another couple of furlongs to be fully effective. He's quite slow so the trip really caught him out today.

-6pts on a bad day but still hopeful of getting a good winner tomorrow if all goes to plan.

x PyRo

Only one bet for me today. Spent ages going through the cards but nothing really jumps out bar this one, which I think has a huge chance. (cue epic defeat)

7:00 Wolverhampton - Brave Prospector - 5pts @ 9/4 (Bet365)

Previous selection of mine when finishing 2nd to the progressive Silaah over 6f at Kempton. He was given a very odd ride by Jamie Spencer that day, having originally set out along side the pace before he was restrained in behind the leader, to whom he gave too much leeway and lost the race because of that. The pace was set in dribs and drabs, which definitely didn't suit Jane Chapple-Hyam's charge and the race was over before it began, with the winner stealing it from the front in impressive fashion. Todays race should be run totally different, with Star Rover and Feeling Foxy likely to make it a good test from the outset, exactly what my selection needs to get fully competitive. He'll also have the added benefit of having Tom Queally on board, who is a top class jockey and has won on him before. I'm fairly confident that he wouldn't of made the same mistake as Spencer last time out and would of probably got a lot closer to the winner, or even won it, which would of ensured he'd be a lot shorter than the 9/4 available here.

Brave Prospector has never run around Wolverhampton, but he has run on polytrack on 3 occasions, with form reading 3-0-2. The '0' came when he was repeatedly denied a clear run through in a Listed contest over 7 furlongs at Kempton. He never had a chance of getting into that race and finished 4.75 length behind the winner in 10th place, which isn't as bad as the result would suggest. The 3rd placed effort came in a Listed race around Lingfield back in November of last year, in which he finished 1.5 lengths behind Hitchens in a hotly contested race. He was well in weights-wise with the majority of the field and got a rapidly run gallop, which suits, but it took him too long to pick up and he was finishing very fast at the end but once again, the line came too soon. A replication of that run would give him every chance here and I'm hopeful of a very good run here under the expert hands of Queally.

On official figures, this is a 3 horse race, with Brave Prospector, Atlantic Story and Piscean being the only runners who line up here under their 'correct' weighting. That doesn't necessarily mean that the others won't be up to winning, however, they're all at least half a stone 'wrong' at the weights, and that would be enough to put me off in itself. The main danger at the moment would be Atlantic Story, who runs off the same weight (9st 7lbs) as my selection and also has the same official ratings. So on paper, they should be hard to split. However, the Mick Easterby trained All-Weather specialist, has never won over anything shorter than 7 furlongs. There's always a first time but he is 0 from 11 over this 6 furlong trip and though the good gallop will suit, I can't see his 9 year old legs being quick enough against some younger and speedier animals. The one worry is, that although he hasn't won once in his 11 attempts over 6f or less, all of those runs were on turf, where he just can't seem to win anyways. So he could well be a different animal over this sprint trip on polytacks, but I'll take my chances and oppose him pretty readily. The next one up for consideration is Piscean, who is in great form of late but finished a couple of lengths behind my selection last time out. He also wouldn't of been suited by how the race panned out but I do think it could be hard to turn around that form, despite things being much more in his favour. He'll be ideally suited by the truly run race and he is also a C&D winner, but in a handicap off a 4lb lower mark. Before that race, he done all of his winning over 5 furlongs in very well run affairs, which shows him in his best light. That C&D win was on the back of a decent gallop on his first try beyond 5 furlongs on the All Weather. They went a decent gallop but nothing too quick and that probably helped him utilize his very impressive turn of foot. However, he was found out last twice and may find it tougher to pick up here on the back of the strong gallop that I'm hoping will develop. The 7/2 currently available is too short for me to get involved with and I'm passing over him too, despite the fact that he's a very lively danger if things go his way.

It looks like Brave Prospector and Easterby's animal will be battling it out for favouritism. I'm definitely siding with the former who will be highly suited to how this should (I hope!) pan out and who has more than enough abilities to gain success in this Class 4 Conditions Stakes. He has only tasted victory on 3 of his 22 runs but should of done a lot better, but he's lightly raced for a 6 year old and could have much more to give in 2011. The Chapple-Hyam yard are making a 280 mile round trip to run him here and they do alright with their runners at Wolverhampton, having scored with 8 of their 85 runners and a further 14 finishing in 2nd place. This is also their only runner on the day and the yard seem to be in decent order since the turn of the year. Hopefully they'll have this fellow in tip-top conditions and ready to win, as I think he has a wonderful chance against this opposition. I'm placing maximum stakes on him and I'm very hopeful of getting a tidy return. He's only 9/4 but I think it could end up even shorter before the off and I marked him up as a 6/4 shot, with claims of being even shorter.

UrbanSea

Haha,I knew you were going to back that horse. Looks to have a cracking chance,good luck.

x PyRo

Cheers Urban, really fancy his chances but who knows.

One early selection for tomorrow. Reasoning to follow.

3:00 Sandown - Miss Overdrive - 2pts @ 25/1 (StanJames)

Crowie13

Nice pick again Pyro

iggy

Oh Yesssssssssssss

x PyRo

Get in ya boy ya!

UrbanSea

Wahey.
Nice winner.

thesandeman

Easy :-D

oddo

x PyRo wrote: »

Only one bet for me today. Spent ages going through the cards but nothing really jumps out bar this one, which I think has a huge chance. (cue epic defeat)

7:00 Wolverhampton - Brave Prospector - 5pts @ 9/4 (Bet365)

Previous selection of mine when finishing 2nd to the progressive Silaah over 6f at Kempton. He was given a very odd ride by Jamie Spencer that day, having originally set out along side the pace before he was restrained in behind the leader, to whom he gave too much leeway and lost the race because of that. The pace was set in dribs and drabs, which definitely didn't suit Jane Chapple-Hyam's charge and the race was over before it began, with the winner stealing it from the front in impressive fashion. Todays race should be run totally different, with Star Rover and Feeling Foxy likely to make it a good test from the outset, exactly what my selection needs to get fully competitive. He'll also have the added benefit of having Tom Queally on board, who is a top class jockey and has won on him before. I'm fairly confident that he wouldn't of made the same mistake as Spencer last time out and would of probably got a lot closer to the winner, or even won it, which would of ensured he'd be a lot shorter than the 9/4 available here.

Brave Prospector has never run around Wolverhampton, but he has run on polytrack on 3 occasions, with form reading 3-0-2. The '0' came when he was repeatedly denied a clear run through in a Listed contest over 7 furlongs at Kempton. He never had a chance of getting into that race and finished 4.75 length behind the winner in 10th place, which isn't as bad as the result would suggest. The 3rd placed effort came in a Listed race around Lingfield back in November of last year, in which he finished 1.5 lengths behind Hitchens in a hotly contested race. He was well in weights-wise with the majority of the field and got a rapidly run gallop, which suits, but it took him too long to pick up and he was finishing very fast at the end but once again, the line came too soon. A replication of that run would give him every chance here and I'm hopeful of a very good run here under the expert hands of Queally.

On official figures, this is a 3 horse race, with Brave Prospector, Atlantic Story and Piscean being the only runners who line up here under their 'correct' weighting. That doesn't necessarily mean that the others won't be up to winning, however, they're all at least half a stone 'wrong' at the weights, and that would be enough to put me off in itself. The main danger at the moment would be Atlantic Story, who runs off the same weight (9st 7lbs) as my selection and also has the same official ratings. So on paper, they should be hard to split. However, the Mick Easterby trained All-Weather specialist, has never won over anything shorter than 7 furlongs. There's always a first time but he is 0 from 11 over this 6 furlong trip and though the good gallop will suit, I can't see his 9 year old legs being quick enough against some younger and speedier animals. The one worry is, that although he hasn't won once in his 11 attempts over 6f or less, all of those runs were on turf, where he just can't seem to win anyways. So he could well be a different animal over this sprint trip on polytacks, but I'll take my chances and oppose him pretty readily. The next one up for consideration is Piscean, who is in great form of late but finished a couple of lengths behind my selection last time out. He also wouldn't of been suited by how the race panned out but I do think it could be hard to turn around that form, despite things being much more in his favour. He'll be ideally suited by the truly run race and he is also a C&D winner, but in a handicap off a 4lb lower mark. Before that race, he done all of his winning over 5 furlongs in very well run affairs, which shows him in his best light. That C&D win was on the back of a decent gallop on his first try beyond 5 furlongs on the All Weather. They went a decent gallop but nothing too quick and that probably helped him utilize his very impressive turn of foot. However, he was found out last twice and may find it tougher to pick up here on the back of the strong gallop that I'm hoping will develop. The 7/2 currently available is too short for me to get involved with and I'm passing over him too, despite the fact that he's a very lively danger if things go his way.

It looks like Brave Prospector and Easterby's animal will be battling it out for favouritism. I'm definitely siding with the former who will be highly suited to how this should (I hope!) pan out and who has more than enough abilities to gain success in this Class 4 Conditions Stakes. He has only tasted victory on 3 of his 22 runs but should of done a lot better, but he's lightly raced for a 6 year old and could have much more to give in 2011. The Chapple-Hyam yard are making a 280 mile round trip to run him here and they do alright with their runners at Wolverhampton, having scored with 8 of their 85 runners and a further 14 finishing in 2nd place. This is also their only runner on the day and the yard seem to be in decent order since the turn of the year. Hopefully they'll have this fellow in tip-top conditions and ready to win, as I think he has a wonderful chance against this opposition. I'm placing maximum stakes on him and I'm very hopeful of getting a tidy return. He's only 9/4 but I think it could end up even shorter before the off and I marked him up as a 6/4 shot, with claims of being even shorter.

Thank you mate. Saw this and put a few quid on.

x PyRo

Cheers lads. Absolutely delighted with that and got the price right too, which doesn't matter but it's nice to get things right every now and again. Won like a good thing and everything panned out as expected, for once!

+11.25pts on the day.

UnitedIrishman

Good man Pyro, managed to get on this just in time. Had to bloody listen to the race through the phone (Paddy Powers live service is a c*nt).

x PyRo

Good stuff dude. Was never in doubt mid-race imo, for once. Pity I can't go beyond 5 points (trying to be disciplined!) or I'd of put a hell of a lot more on!

Currently up around 26 points for the month, which I'm really happy with. I'm aiming for over double that this month though, so a long way to go yet. Hopefully there's more winners to come yet. It makes a nice change though.

x PyRo

3:00 Sandown - Miss Overdrive - 2pts @ 25/1 (StanJames)

A wide open Grade 3 contest over this 2m 6f trip at Sandown, but I believe it could pay to side with this relatively lightly raced 7 year old mare. She comes here on the back of 2 decent runs, the first being a 7 length defeat to Barafundle, who finished 2nd to the David Pipe trained Grand Crus on his previous outing. The latter has since won a Grade 2 contest at his ease and is currently the 2nd favourite for the World Hurdle in March. The form of those races alone look quite strong, despite the wide margin winners. There should be a fairly good gallop from the off here, with numerous front runners lining up in opposition and that's exactly what my selection needs, as she sees out her races extremely well and gets 3 miles with relative ease. This 2m 6f trip is no problem for her, if it's a good stamina test and I expect it to be. The ground is currently listed as Good, which is another positive and although she has run well on softer ground last twice, she'll definitely find her chances increased by the better going.

Although taking a massive step up to Grade 3, Miss Overdrive has been competitive at Listed level over just shy of this trip. She was staying on strongly that day from a long way back and gets another furlong today, so anything better than that run could put her in with a shout here, assuming she steps up on it a bit. She also ran well enough over 3m 1f when coming 4th of 18 behind Universal Truth last time out. The winner was a handicap good thing and won with ease, but the rest were pretty close together and if it wasn't for the very testing Soft/Heavy ground, then my selection would of been a lot closer. That was probably a joint career best performance, so this 7 year old mare seems to be in fine form and possibly ready to take another step up on what she has shown to date. Another positive for me is that due to being rated only 122, she gets to run here off a riding weight of just 10st 2lbs, which is bound to come in handy. Nick Scholfield is also remounting which is another plus, as he's a jockey I rate highly and he has ridden her on 3 occasions, with form reading ; 4-4-2. He seems to get a decent tune out of her and with conditions likely to be ideal, he can add what seems an unlikely victory to that sequence. The mare is trained by Andy Turnell, who hasn't had too many winners of late but his runners seem to be running with credit and making the frame, so hopefully that's the case once again with this runner. If she's there or thereabouts 2 out, then there won't be too many keeping on as strongly as her, though the only worry is how easily she seems to get outpaced when the business end comes along.

This is a mightily tough contest but not beyond Miss Overdrive if she could put everything together, which she hasn't done too often. I do, however, think that the 25/1 I took is severely overpriced. She's generally a 20/1 shot now and 28.0 on the exchange, both of which still are too big as I marked her up as a fair 14/1 shot. Many at the head of the market are only such short prices due to their stables being big names. If this animal was trained by the likes of Hobbs, Nicholls, King, O'Neill or Henderson, she'd be much shorter in the betting. The preview sites seem to think she's not up to much progression but I completely disagree, as she hasn't shown her true abilities yet in my opinion. Todays conditions are perfect, the track should be perfect, the race should be run perfectly and the opposition aren't great shakes by any means. Henderson's Lush Life was the one I thought may prove to be a very big danger but the 8/1 available is probably about right, so I'll stick with the bigger priced selection obviously. Small/medium win stakes being placed, I would go each way normally but I'm cutting that out of my betting as an experiment so we'll see how it goes. If she places I'll be twice as disappointed but I'll take my chances at hitting the jackpot. Wide open race where anything could happen but she's definitely worthy of consideration at the current prices.

x PyRo

2:25 Sandown - Medermit - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

This is an attractive looking Grade 1 contest, where cases could be made for a lot of the field. However, I think it may pay to side with the Alan King trained 7 year old, who looks to have a big future ahead of himself over the larger obstacles. He was the best hurdler out of this field and is currently rated as the best chaser, at least 6lbs well in with his nearest rivals. He opened his account over fences when winning a 3 runner race by 88 lengths at Aintree when sent off the 1/5 favourite. He then ran in a similar 4 runner race at Huntingdon but refused at the 6th, apparently due to disliking the front running tactics that were applied due to none of the opposition wanting to make the running. Medermit put all of that behind him when winning a month later, this time over 2m 1f at Plumpton when running out an easy winner despite some poor jumping, which is understandable on what was only his 2nd appearance over fences. He was then both stepped up in trip and in grade to contest the Grade 2 Novices' Chase at Cheltenham on New Years day. It was run at a good gallop throughout and Alan King's runner only found one too good, with Hell's Bay showing his love for Cheltenham to hold on by 0.75 of a length. They were over 20 lengths clear of what was a decent field and I expect that form will be more than enough to gain victory here, with futher progression even more likely for Medermit, who put in a very promising effort despite going down narrowly on the run in.

One thing that should be ensured here is a good gallop, as there's a fair few potential pacemakers in the field, with the likes of Rebel Du Marquis and Hidden Keel likely to want to take things along. This is exactly what's needed for my selection to be fully effective and assuming it pans out this way, I'll be very confident that my Medermit will be bang there with a chance when it comes down to the business end of proceedings. He has the speed, clearly has the stamina and also seems to be much improved in the jumping department. I think a stiff extended 2m 4f should be right down his street and the good-ish ground shouldn't be too much bother, although a bit of cut would be ideal. Choc Thornton takes the ride and he's a top notch jockey, who has taken this fellow to 4 of his 6 victories to date. He's riding decently of late and has a fine 16% strike rate over the Sandown fences, with it likely to increase if all goes to plan with this ride. Alan King's yard hasn't been firing as well as usual in the last couple of weeks but he certainly has a horse of great ability here and I don't think his progression over fences is likely to end any time soon. The 7/2 available is quite big to me, as I think 5/2 would be a more acceptable price. I'll be playing medium each way stakes on him and I think he's definitely the most likely winner of the race. He's currently favourite and the last 4 favourites have won this contest, so lets hope that recent trends continue with this fellow.

However, I'm having a small saver on Captain Chris - 1pt @ 9/2 (Bet365). Mainly because I think that the step up in trip is what he's crying out for and although he has a fair bit to find with my main selection, he could prove to be a very big danger if everything comes together. For the sake of a 1pt stake, he's definitely worth taking a chance on in the off-chance that Alan King's charge is beaten. Phillip Hobbs' runner should also appreciate the return to a right handed track, as he was jumping that way last time out and this will counteract it if it continues. He's also extremely lightly raced, having only run on 7 occasions and just twice over fences. There's enough potential there to make him very competitive here and he's sure to be spot on for this contest. 9/2 looks a nice price to cover my main bet and a King/Hobbs 1-2 would be perfectly acceptable, preferably in that order. If both lose, I'll cry!

x PyRo

3:25 Lingfield - Rugell - 1pt @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Not an obvious form pick by any means but could prove to be a bit of value in what looks to be a wide open contest. He gained his sole UK win when making all to gain victory with ease in a 1m 6f contest at Ffos Las when trained by Clive Cox. Since then he has moved to the Derek Shaw yard, running twice since but both at inadequate trips where he tailed off on both occasions (1m & 1m 2f). Rugell is now upped in trip to 1m 4f and looks potentially well treated off a mark of 85, just 2lbs higher than that win here. He's a previous Group 2 winner when trained out in Argentina, so he clearly has ability but how much of that remains is still in doubt. However, he seems to handle polytrack without problem, as shown when coming 4th to Phoenix Flight over 2 miles at Kempton, with the trip possibly catching him out as he folded under pressure having set a relatively slow tempo. That was off a 1lb lower mark and all 3 ahead of him have followed up since, although the race was back in June so that's probably expected and not really relative to now. He looked to be a decent stayer in the making but has failed to live up to expectations and was sold out of Cox's yard pretty cheaply, fetching only €10,500. He's now owned by Derek Shaw himself, so hopefully he'll have him firing on all cylinders here and it's a yard that does have the odd massive priced winner.

This is a wide open contest, with Mark Johnston's recently impressive Lovers Causeway priced up as the 5/2 favourite. However, he's running under a penalty, upped in grade and being turned out quickly, all of which would make me oppose. He'll also face competition for the lead should he try to make all and looks potentially vulnerable off a career high mark of 88, although he was very impressive last time out. Another few were interesting, not least Taaresh, who was another impressive winner last time when scoring by an eased down 4.5 lengths over this trip at Kempton. However, he's upped markedly in grade, from class 5 to class 3, runs off a career high mark and faces a much tougher proposition here. At 6/1, I'd readily pass over him, but he seems in good form and would be of interest if he was available at a better price. Scamperdale has never won at this trip, throws in the odd howler and has never won off a mark this high, plus he's also 9 year old so I'll also oppose him. If things fell right for Shaw's runner, then he may have a chance to knick it from the front if getting to the lead, which is a doubt but at 25/1 I'll take my chances. He has won at this grade, gets the trip well, looks well handicapped and looks overprice. He should also improve for having those 2 recent runs on the back of a break. I priced him up as a 14/1 shot and I think that he's worth taking a chance on with minimal stakes.

x PyRo

4:30 Lingfield - Elna Bright - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Has a bit to find with some of these runners and it'll be tough to win off top weight but this relatively consistent 6 year old should improve tenfold for the step up to 1 mile. I believe it has been what he's been crying out for, as he seems readily outpaced in the final stages of his recent runs over 7 furlongs. He has won over 6f on two occasions, so he obviously has a bit of speed but I think stamina could be his forté and if he gets to run on the back of a good gallop, we could see him gain his 9th career success. Elna Bright is a 2 time course winner, with overall form reading ; 2-1-1-3-0-3-6, which shows consistency in the main and his only bad performance coming when he was hampered and lost his stride 5 starts ago. The 2 wins came over 7 furlongs, when winning off 7 & 3lb lower marks but he has won off a 1lb higher mark at Kempton, which gives cause for optimism that he's not completely in the grips of the handicapper, which seems to be the general consensus.

Elna Bright has a 4lb swing with Hazzard County, who is the current 5/1 favourite in this wide open contest. They met last time out, when my selection ran 4.75 lengths behind Simcock's runner over 7f here. I think that the combination of both weight change and the step up in trip is much more in my selections favour, with Simcock's charge being a much better animal over a truly run 7. I'm hoping that's enough to change around that form. Brett Johnston trains Elna Bright and his runners seem to be going well without gaining success, so he'll be hoping to change that with victory here with his only runner at Lingfield. Liam Keniry takes the ride, on what is 1 of only 2 rides today, the other being a virtual no hoper, in my opinion. Keniry and Johnston have a 22% strike rate at the course, with 2 winners from 9 runners. He's a jockey I rate fairly highly and he has won on board this gelding before, on 2 occasions, including at this track.

Many others can come in to consideration here, with Zebrano likely to make a bold bid but he's under a rise in the weights, a career high mark and possibly running at a track that's not fully to his liking, as he's a much better animal around Kempton. He also has some form to turn around with other animals and for all those reasons, at 13/2, I'd rather take him on despite him being in good knick of late. Everymanforhimself is finally getting his act together lately but both recent wins have come at Southwell and the further 3lb rise for his last race, combined with a step up to a trip he has never won over, would be enough to make me oppose at the currently 7/1 available. He's in good form but not a good enough price to be worthy of consideration. Cases could also be made for the rest of the field but I marked Elna Bright up as a 7/1 shot, with the potential to be even shorter, so I think that he's worth siding with by having a small/medium bet at the 10/1 currently available. I can't see that lasting too long as it looks vastly overpriced to me, but it's quite plausible that many other runners could be punted and he could even drift to a better price, despite being undeserving of it. He has a very lively chance under these new conditions.

x PyRo

3:10 Ffos Las - I'moncloudnine - 1pt @ 13/2 (PaddyPower)

I'm not going into too much detail with this one, as I've selected it on a number of occasions, including last twice. He's in good form of late, producing many decent displays without managing to get his head in front. However, he gets to run here off the same mark as then finishing 3rd in the Welsh National and I think that the return to a flatter and sharper track should pave the way for an even better performance. He should get this trip with ease, handle ground conditions with ease and also jump around a lot better on a track like Ffos Las, which is right up his street. Interestingly, I'moncloudnine has first time cheekpieces applied, which seems a bit odd to me but could spark something that hasn't been unlocked just yet. He's running off a mark of 133 and will need a rise in the weights to get into the Grand National, with will mean he'll have to be doing some winning pretty soon. He could have a good chance of doing that today, especially with Barry Geraghty on board, who is a top notch jockey and has only been booked on 2 previous occasions for the Neil Mulholland yard, including once on this fellow. Geraghty has a fine 40% strike rate here, with 6 winner, 2 seconds and 3 thirds from a total of 15 rides. Hopefully he can add to that with victory here in what looks a wide open class 2 handicap, in which the winner will pick up a cool £19,000. There's currently 11 runners, with bookmakers going 5/1 the field and the outsiders priced up at 12/1. That show how competitive it is and I won't be going into who has a chance, as pretty much all of them do but I think that I'moncloudnine could be worth pursuing with once again at his current odds of 13/2. I didn't bother doing a book for this one but I'd probably of had him a bit shorter than that. Minimal stakes being played in the hope that he can finally get his head in front in one of these competitive staying contests.

UrbanSea

Well done Pyro,nice start.