PyRo's Horse Bets.

Brendygg

First time checking your log in a while Pyro, a winner first bet!! Great stuff.

Crowie13

Excellent stuff Pyro, if this blacksmith hurrys up I might get to see the next one run

jive

nice dude. first time i've backed a horse in a while. medermit in a double with nottingham forest. hopefully forest hold on now, if they do you're my hero

x PyRo

Cheers lads, great start to the day but an anti-climax with the rest of it! Still a tidy profit on the day, so at least I'm getting a bit more consistent.

Medermit looked the winner a fair way from home, looked to have it in the bag pretty comfortably after his main rival at the last fence made a mistake but Captain Chris came from out of the clouds to put in a dangerous run. Thank God my main selection held on to score after idling in front, looks a classy prospect to say the least. I also got the 5/2 price spot on, which is another thing to be happy about.

Miss Overdrive was disappointing, bad mistake at the 7th cost her and she was never getting involved. Still keeping an eye on her as she'll win someday soon, not up to this level though.

I'moncloudnine ran alright, plugged on gamely but he doesn't jump well enough and gave away ground at the majority of the fences when the pace quickened. Going to avoid him from now on I'd say.

Rugell got the lead but was never competitive. Probably needs to go further and get eased by the handicapper. Went off 50/1 too, which told the story of his chances. Got that one way wrong. I was right to oppose Johnston's short priced favourite, but it's a pity I got the wrong horse, as the last one I mentioned one, although I wouldn't of picked him out in a month of Sundays.

Elna Bright was disappointing. Kept on but never had the turn of foot to get involved. I still think he's worth following but it would help if he got some leeway from the handicapper. Seems to be reasonably consistent but just not good enough to get fully involved.

+3.50pts on the day. Not a big profit by any means but still a decent return on the day and hopefully a sign of better things to come.

I'm sorting out the bank & stats now.

x PyRo

Bank - 304.63pts (+204.63pts)


February -

(Profit)/Loss - +29.75pts

Bets - 13
Wins - 3
Placed - 2
SR - 23%
Staked - 27pts
Returned - 56.75pts
ROI - 110%

x PyRo

Early selection with reasoning to come later. Hopefully Leopardstown will go ahead.

1:05 Leopardstown - Louisville Lip - 2pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)

x PyRo

1:05 Leopardstown - Louisville Lip - 2pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)

This bet will be subject to whether the meeting goes ahead or not but assuming it does, then this talented 4 year old has a good chance of gaining a Grade 1 scalp on only his second start over hurdles. He made his debut just under two weeks ago, when sent off as a 20/1 shot in what looked to be a competitive field. The way Louisville Lip traveled, jumped and asserted in the closing stages was highly impressive. He ran out a 2.5 length winner to Maxim Gorky, a previously decent animal on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute and whom he re-opposes today. Patrick Flynn's charge was value for more than the winning distance and won going away, despite stumbling shortly after taking the final flight in impressive fashion. He's sure to go on to a lot bigger and better things, whether a Grade 1 contest is within his grasp at such an early stage is debatable, but he does look high class and at 7/1, I'm more than happy to take a chance.

The vibes out of his yard are good, as they seem to really rate this fellow and expect he should come on tenfold for that recent run. Louisville Lip has previous race experience, having been a 9 race maiden on the flat at trips up to 12 furlongs. He was average to say the least, but always looked to be a better prospect once going over jumps, as he has both the size, speed and stamina to be much better in this code. Assuming he can kick on from that last win, I think he has massive claims here in a race containing similar lightly raced types. However, he's open to a lot more improvement and if he was from one of the leading yards, he'd be half this price at least. Dermot Weld trains the current favourite, another 1 race 1 win competitor going by the name of Unaccompanied. She gets a fillies allowance here, which is 5lbs, so that's a plus but she won a modest maiden hurdle first time up, jumping averagely over a few flights and is priced purely on her trainers potential, although she has lots of it herself. At 11/4, I'd rather take her on with something else.

Paul Nicholls trains the other big danger, a more experienced runner in comparison to my selection, as Indian Daudaie has already run 4 times over hurdles, winning once in France in a decent race and also placed in a French Group 1 on very testing ground. He made his debut for this yard in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham, when finishing a good 3rd of 7 behind Local Hero, who looks to be a more than classy type. However, 3/1 is much too skinny for me and despite the powerful connections, I'd rather oppose once again. There's a few more dangers, but assuming the race goes ahead, I'll happily side with the potential of Louisville Lip, who could be anything and already looks pretty exciting. Conditions are favourable and the race should pan out to suit, the only wonder is whether he's good enough, but 7/1 is enough for me to take a chance. Small/medium bet on a selection who I think should be no bigger than 5/1, with the potential to be even shorter based on how visually impressive he was first time up. The meeting may not even go ahead, but if it does, then this should be an extremely exciting race.

UrbanSea

Leopardstown not looking good. 1.12 that it won't go ahead

x PyRo

2:00 Musselburgh - Viva Colonia - 2pts @ 7/1 (PaddyPower)

On paper, this looks a wide open contest but I've readily discounted a lot of the field and I think that it may pay to side with David O'Meara's lightly raced hurdler, Viva Colonia. He was previously with the Charlie Mann yard, but cut little mustard over hurdles, bar winning on his debut in an awful maiden race. He then ran 2 more decent races for Mann, before blowing up at Kempton and collapsing after the race. His next 4 efforts were very laboured, finishing well beaten every time, before moving to O'Meara's yard around September time and was ready to line up again at the end of October, over 2m 4f at Wetherby. He was sent off as a 10/1 shot in a 15 runner handicap, traveled and jumped well throughout and won in decisive fashion, beating some decent animals in the process. That was a career best effort and connections turned him out 2 weeks later, over 3 furlongs shorter this time, but at the same track. The ground was a bit worse this time and he wasn't able to pick up as easily as before, settling for a 0.75 length 2nd place, which was probably a step up on his previous form as he was shouldering an 11lb rise in the weights and running at a trip I believe to be shy of his optimum.

Viva Colonia has since had nearly 3 months off the race track and should come here nice and fresh, ready to take on an even tougher task. He's up another 7lbs on the back of that second place, but he's back in to his optimum trip and has an even better jockey on board, with Denis O'Regan taking over from Fearghal Davis, whom I also rate but just not as highly. If O'Regan can get this animal traveling with purpose, then once the business end comes along, I think he has a huge chance of taking his recent progression to another level. Viva Colonia will have top weight to contend with, but the ground is only on the soft side of good, which should be of no problem and I can't believe that 120 is the ceiling of his abilities, especially on what he has shown last twice. I really like O'Meara as a trainer and he should be able to exert even more out of this lightly raced hurdler, who has only had 9 runs over obstacles. The form of the yard is decent of late and they've never come to Musselburgh before with NH animals, and only bring down 2 today, this one with the most lively chance. It's a 350 mile round trip for them, so hopefully it's not wasted. There's a fair few dangers but I'm not going to go through them, however, Viva Colonia was by far and away the best choice of this race from all of my attempts to look at it in different ways. He should appreciate everything that's likely to occur and although top weight is tough to overcome, he has a very good chance of doing it. I marked him up as the 7/2 favourite, with means I should be having a bigger bet but I think I'll play it smart and only play small/medium stakes as I'm bound to have missed something. Another bookie has him priced as the 9/2 joint favourite though, which looks more realistic. Either the odds compliers are out of their mind at Powers, or else I'm completely wrong. I'll take my chances though, as he's bound to run a good race and will hopefully find enough to go one better than last time, seems to go OK fresh too.

x PyRo

3:35 Musselburgh - Beidh Tine Anseo - 1pt @ 16/1 (WillHill)

Highly progressive over hurdles last spring, notching a hat-trick under the guidance of Campbell Gilles, who's on board yet again. He failed to win in his 2 hurdle starts since but wasn't suited by things last time out and could have a decent chance here at the foot of the weights. This is a tough class 2 handicap and it'll take a career best to gain victory but I think that Beidh Tine Anseo may have a lot more to give, especially with things a lot more likely to suit today at a track that's made for him. He's ideally suited to a sharp 2 mile test and that's what he gets today, plus he also races a lot closer to home, which is a positive as the long journeys of late may have taken a bit out of him, as he certainly didn't perform to his abilities. If everything could come together here, then he may have a nice chance of getting involved at what looks a very tasty 16/1 price tag.

He's trained by Lucinda Russel, who isn't in good form of late but due to hit a good run any time soon. Herself and Gilles form a very good partnership, with 13% of their runners getting into the winners enclosure and they also show a nice LSP of £44. Beidh Tine Anseo handles most ground, so the current going won't inconvenience him and with a good gallop likely, he'll have everything in his favour. He stays further pretty readily and sees out this trip very well, which he'll need to do today up against some very decent opposition. He also gets on very well with this jockey, having won under his guidance on 3 occasions and Gilles has a fine 18% strike rate here at Musselburgh. Drill Sergent will be a big danger and I probably would of punted him if it wasn't for his current price of 13/2, which has come in from 11/1, as I'd imagine Pricewise have put him up for todays racing, sucking out any value that was to be had, so I'll oppose now. There's many more lively contenders but at the current prices, Lucinda Russell's 5 year old is worth chancing. He has a lot more to give and is still pretty lightly raced. He hasn't raced in a few months but that shouldn't be any concern and it's quite possible that he'll come back a much better animal, although it'll take a fine run to win here. 16/1 is much too big, I marked him up as a 10/1 shot and I'll play a minimum win stake on him, in the off chance that he comes back to his usual self and performs to the level that he should be able to.

UrbanSea

Racing off in Ireland.

x PyRo

Viva Colonia ran well for a long way. Hit around 2/1 in running after making good headway but a combination of weight and testing ground took its toll. He finished just over 20 lengths behind, back in 6th place. I still think there's a decent race in him if he gets better ground so I'll be backing him again.

Beidh Tine Anseo faded tamely enough when still in with a chance. Traded around the 4/1 mark but couldn't pick up on the ground. Probably another one that'll do better on good ground and I'll be on again at some stage. There's a big one in him yet.

-3pts on the day. Hopefully a winner or two to come tomorrow.

x PyRo

2:25 Wolverhampton - Cape Royal - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Normally I wouldn't be too keen to back a horse who is 0-26 on the all weather but this trailblazing 11 year old could have a squeak at a nice price, now that he's back around Wolverhampton on favourable terms. Cape Royal showed all his old dash when attempting to make all over the flying 5 furlongs at Southwell a few days ago, where he was eventually worn down by 2 rivals but plugged on for a game third place. If he could replicate that run around here, then I feel he has a huge chance in what looks a particularly weak class 6 contest, even for the grade, where many come here in bad form or either handicapped out of the equation. His last C&D run was 3 starts ago, but it was when the track was riding slow and that's definitely not in his favour, with a 6th place finish all he could muster after fading under pressure. However, if we go back to his run over C&D 2 starts before that, he finished a gallant 2nd to Sir Geoffrey, a winner since and consistent performer off a mark of 86, 13lbs higher than when my selection faced him. Those two finished a few lengths clear of the rest and the form does look quite decent, especially when compared to that of the rest of this field. If things could just pan out in Cape Royal's favour today, then he may have an ideal opportunity of making it 1-27 on the AW, off a mark of 60, which looks quite attractive given that he has run well on this surface off much higher.

Of the rest in contention, I thought Decider showed a fair amount of speed early on last time out when racing at Lingfield over 6f. He was eventually caught inside the final furlong but plugged on well and looks ideally suited by this step back in trip. However, despite being in good form of late, he could be vulnerable off a mark that would need a career best to see him gain victory, so I'll avoid, plus I can never catch his yard right. Your Gifted, despite the bad grammar, is in fine fettle of late, winning twice from his last 7 outings, with 5 seconds and a third. He is a frustrating type though and may be found out on the back of another 4lb rise, especially at a course where he has never particularly ran well. He does warrant a lot of respect, but at 4/1, I'd much rather take him on with something else. Straboe has claims too but his yard are impossible to get right and he will more than likely win if gambled on, but I'm not taking that chance at around the 11/2 mark, although he's potentially well in with my selection on previous form. A couple more come into the equation, like Alan McCabe's runner and Derek Shaw's two, but at the prices I'd much rather side with Cape Royal, who seems to have a good opportunity to strike, as everything should be in his favour, the yard are going well, the course suits his running style and he's potentially well handicapped. It's a risky bet given his overall profile on this surface but the last time he got things to his liking, he ran into one that was an improver under new connections and has since went on to make the form look quite decent. A relative shock could be on the cards and at 8/1, he's worth a small/medium bet in the hope that he'll land the spoils. I marked him up as a 5/1 shot and I'm hopeful that today could be the day.

x PyRo

4:05 Wolverhampton - Army Of Stars - 1pt @ 15/2 (VC)

Wide open contest here and not one for big stakes, but it may pay to side with James Given's recent recruit, Army Of Stars, who never goes anywhere too quickly but could find things panning out in his favour here. There should be a fair bit of pace on, with the likes of Striker Torres and Double Carpet lining up, which should be on my selections side, assuming he doesn't get outpaced as he seems to quite often. However, he ran a good 3rd last time out, when finishing fast after he was given a very odd ride. Originally Franny Norton sent him up with the pace, before he dropped to second last half way from home. They went a good gallop but once they turned for home he made up significant ground to come 1.5 lengths behind the winner and grabbed 3rd place on the line, finishing behind 2 decent types for the grade. That was around Lingfield, where he won on debut in a seller for Given, having moved from the Jamie Osbourne yard. He was clear on ratings that day, sent off the 4/6 favourite and won by half a length in what was a decent yet uninspiring performance. However, Given is a trainer I rate fairly highly and he could get a bit more out of this fellow, especially as he has turned in 2 respectable efforts since.

Army Of Stars has only ventured to Wolverhampton on one occasion, which was on debut when he was relatively un-fancied. He was away slowly, ran quite green and only made modest progress in the straight. However, he should be a much better animal now and at least we know he handles the surface, having gained all 3 of his career wins on polytrack. He also looks decently handicapped, especially as he's 4lbs lower than a close up 5th place in a class 4 contest back in September, where he finished behind some very decent sorts. If he could run to that level again, he'd have a good shout of getting involved here, in what looks an open but uninspiring race with regards to quality. Striker Torres is a decent animal, but may need the lead to get involved, which isn't a given in this field and I reckon he's much too short at 5/2, despite dropping in grade. Steed has to shoulder another rise in the weights for winning at Southwell last twice, the last race off a 5lb lower mark. How he'll handle the different surface here is anyone guess and I'd rather look elsewhere as he's only available at 10/3, which is too short. A few others have claims on their best form but I'm siding with James Given and Franny Norton to provide the winner. They strike up a good partnership on the all weather and Franny knows the horse a bit better now having ridden him last twice, which will come in handy on a horse that needs a bit of knowing. 15/2 looks too big to me and I'll have a minimum win bet in the hope that he finds enough to knock back these rivals.

x PyRo

Cape Royal ran a decent race for a long time but faded inside the final furlong. I think it's time for me to give up on him, as he'll probably never win on the all weather. He hit 2/1 in running but finished in a dead heat 5th with fellow oldie and stable mate The Tatling. Once the money came for McCabe's horse, I knew he was probably the one to be on but I didn't have a saver, pity.

Army Of The Stars was well backed, went off at 7/2 but what Franny Norton was trying to do is a mystery to me. The front runners went off at a suicidal pace early on, which was perfect for my selection, and he was still cantering along with ease coming into the straight, hence why he hit 1.27 in running I'd imagine. But Norton barely done a thing until he had let the leading few get away. In fairness to Franny, he couldn't get a clear run after they turned for home but he just didn't look like he was putting the horse into the race at any stage. It'll be interesting to see this one out next time, as I reckon he's not far away from winning again.

-3pts on the day.

x PyRo

3:45 Southwell - Marvellous Value - 1pt @ 6/1 (WillHill)

I think that this talented 6 year old could live up to his name if he handles conditions, in what looks like a relatively weak 6 furlong contest. He didn't see a race track until he was a 3 year old, winning his opening two contests in impressive fashion before landing a competitive class 3 contest at Newcastle two starts later, winning quite easily off a mark of 87. Marvellous Value looked to be going places and lined up in a class 2 handicap next time out off a mark of 93, but could only manage a 6th place effort, which was respectable. He then headed for the Ayr Silver Cup, where he once again ran a decent race but only managed to come home in 5th position. There was very heavy ground that day, which probably didn't suit and he wasn't seen again for a long time, missing out on a 4 year old campaign in the process. He came back after a year and a half off, running poorly in a couple of decent races before putting in another two good efforts in competitive handicaps without landing too much of a blow. However, it's his most recent effort that has me interested, in which he lined out in a competitive class 4 handicap at Wolverhampton on his all weather debut. He was held up throughout, taken into the straight very wide but ran on in decent style to grab 4th place on the line, finishing behind and in front of some decent types.

Assuming Marvellous Value handles the new surface combined with the 3 month lay off, then I think he could have a good chance at getting involved in what looks a poor enough contest, where the favourite won a poor seller last time out and could be vulnerable back in handicap company. There could also be a decent pace on, with a fair few prominent racers expected to line up and this will also be in my selections favour, as he normally runs best on the back of a good gallop. Frederick Tylicki takes the ride today, he's just recently back in action having missed the last half of 2010 having suffered a bad fall back in June. He's a very talented jockey and assuming he's anywhere near his old self, he should prove to be a welcomed addition to this horse. He also has a good record around Southwell, having won on board 8 of his 43 rides, which gives him a fine 19% strike rate, with a further 19 coming in the places.Tylicki rarely rides for the Michael Dods yard, having only had 13 rides previous to this, with 1 winner, 5 seconds and a third placed effort. He looks an interesting booking and it's his only ride of the day and one of Dods' 3 runners at a course where he does reasonably well. If Marvellous Value handles the fibresand at Southwell, then he's bound to make his presence felt, as he has a lot of ability and looks well handicapped off a mark of 79, which he is much better than. He's currently priced up at 6/1, which looks acceptable to say the least and he's worth a small stakes bet, but no bigger as there's too much risk in backing a horse who may or may not handle the surface, but I'll take a chance.

x PyRo

4:45 Southwell - Calculating - 4pts @ 10/3 (Bet365)

Talented 7 year old on his day who specializes on the all weather and boasts a good record around this course. Although he stays 2 mile quite readily, his course form around 11 & 12 furlongs reads ; 2-2-1-2-3, though it is quite a while since he tackled this trip on the all weather but it should be run to ensure he'll be involved. The last time he encountered this 1m 4f trip, he won but that was on the turf and it was also his only career win from 28 attempts on it. Calculating also seems to need to run in a small field, having gained all of his career wins in races consisting of 9 or less runners, with only 6 lining out here. His form in fields of 6 runners or less reads ; 2-1-3-4-1-1-2-2-4-4-2-4-5-4, with the majority of the poorer performances coming when either racing too prominent due to no pace on or else taking up the running himself, which he can't seem to do effectively. I think that Jim Boyle's runner Mush Mir and Bryn Palling's Deejan should ensure that prominent tactics won't have to be applied here and they should go a relatively decent gallop from the offset, which is exactly what my selection needs to get competitive, as he has gained all of his wins in small fields from being held up early on then pressuring the front runners before they turn for home. I'm just hoping they don't crawl off and make Mark Usher's runner take a handy position, as it just won't suit at all, like we witnessed last time out when Calculating tried to make all at Kempton when setting off at a very good pace before fading after the turn from home to finish a remote 4th of 6. He does go down 4lbs for that effort though and he's now back at Southwell, where he has won on 4 occasions and gained his last win here off a 9lb higher mark in August of 2010, though, that was over 2 miles.

The return to Southwell is definitely a positive and Lee Newnes takes over the reins again, with Dane O'Neill having taken the ride last twice. Although Dane is the better jockey, Lee has won twice on Calculating and seems to get on well with the horse. He also takes off a valuable 5lbs and has form on board this horse around this track that reads ; 1-7-2-1. His claim leaves his mount carrying only 8st 9lbs, which should come in handy and he certainly looks very well handicapped on all known form. I feel that the favourite, Mediterranean Sea, is extremely vulnerable here and much too short at around the 6/4 mark. She's obviously in good form, having made the frame on her last 7 outings, including 5 second place finishes. However, she finds winning extremely tough and always seems to run into one. She's also 13lbs higher than her last career win and has become a victim of her own consistency, rising in the weights without even managing to win. She just doesn't seem like a horse who's able to put it all in when the going gets though and despite having lots of ability, she's readily passed over purely as her price is too short. Deejan has claims as she's lightly raced and looks well handicapped. However, she has 2.25 lengths to make up with the favourite as they met last time out. I don't think she will and I expect herself and Mush Mir to do the donkey work up front, before eventually fading, I hope. The latter put in a fine performance when scoring easily at Lingfield but now comes to tackle an unknown surface and may just end up ensuring the race will be set up for my selection. His trainer is pretty shrewd though, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him win but at the moment, I couldn't take a chance, even at 6/1. The other two are average enough horses and although they could both have a chance, I'm readily passing over them purely as I don't think they're good enough. On paper it looks to be a two horse race and at the odds I'm definitely siding with Calculating, who looks well handicapped, runs well here and has everything in his favour as far as I can see. I marked him up as a 2/1 shot and I think he's worthy of fairly large stakes. I would max bet him but I've already used one this month and I won't tempt faith by doing it again, so it's a 4 point bet at a price I consider too big.

UrbanSea

Great minds think alike. Really liking the look of Calculating myself

x PyRo

Marvellous Value ran a good race but could only manage 3rd in the end. He traveled well and got locked into a battle with Ace Of Spies over a furlong out. He took the lead but was pegged back by that horse and Elhamri, who ran on well to win a shade comfortably. Dods' runner was fancied, went off at 4/1 and should definitely come on for that. I'll be on again.

Calculating was disappointing. I got some of that race right, which is pleasing, just didn't get the winner. Mush Mir and Deejan made it a good test, going off at a solid pace, which would usually suit my selection but Mush Mir kept going and didn't really tire as I thought he would. He ran out a game winner, fending off Cobo Bay, who I didn't really fancy. Calculating ran on to come 3rd and the favourite was rightly opposed, just not with the right animal. He'll probably need to go further again and I'll be on if he's upped a further couple of furlongs and in a race with some decent pace or else when he's back to 2 mile. Disappointing selection but that's life, can't win 'em all.

-5pts today, but there's winners coming soon!

x PyRo

2:30 Lingfield - Chief Exec - 3pts @ 15/2 (VC)

I've changed my mind a couple of times on this race, as it's definitely a tricky one to solve. However, I think that the Jeremy Gask trained 9 year old could have a good chance in a race that should be run to suit. He finds winning hard nowadays but performed with credit last time out, over 7 furlongs here, with the form of the race working out well. The first and second horses have won in impressive style since, the fifth and sixth placed horses have run well since and the eight placed animal has won again, along with the horse who finished last, who has also won again. The form looks exceptionally strong and I believe that Chief Exec could benefit from the step up to 1 mile, even though he has never won at this trip, albeit from only 9 attempts with conditions not as likely to suit as they are today.

He's getting on now and finds winning hard, more often than not finishing second but the way he seen out his race last time out was impressive, in a race dominated by those who raced handily throughout. Chief Exec was a fast finishing 4th, 3 lengths behind the winner who looks a very decent animal indeed. He was nearest at the finish and although his record over this trip is uninspiring, he may find himself more suited to it nowadays as it seems to take him a bit longer to pick up, as shown last twice when flying in the final furlong but unable to make an impression. His turn of foot seems most effective on the back of modestly run races, which should be the case with only one likely pacesetter lining up in the shape of Cativo Cavallino and he wouldn't exactly be a trailblazer, plus he doesn't need to make the running to be fully effective, so it could be a crawl.

Chief Exec is arguably well handicapped on his best form, having gained his last success off a 4lb lower mark, when winning at Kempton in September. He's also a 2 time course winner, which includes a competitive handicap off a 14lb higher mark, albeit 5 years ago. It will take a very fine effort to gain victory here but he looks to have a good chance if stringing everything together, at a track that seems ideal for him, especially on his last showing in a more than decent contest. Adam Kirby takes the ride today, which looks an interesting jockey booking to me. He typically does well on this fellow, having ridden him on 7 occasions, including that win at Kempton a few months ago. Kirby doesn't ride too often for the Gask yard, but when he does, the stats are pretty darn impressive, with the due striking up a record of 6 wins from 17 runners on the all weather, giving them a highly impressive 35% strike rate and they're 1 win from 2 runners here at Lingfield, with the winner coming a few weeks ago. This is Kirby's only ride of the day, Gask's only runner of the day and he's making a 220 mile round trip to come here.

Of the opposition, I was really taking to Green Earth who looks potentially well treated on his third outing for a new yard. However, the lack of out and out pace could be costly to him and after much deliberation I managed to convince myself to avoid, but I'll be absolutely gutted if he wins. A fair few others could be considered but I believe that Chief Exec is definitely the most interesting of the lot and I fancy the step up to 1 mile to potentially unlock the door, as the horse still retains a lot of his abilities, but doesn't win as often as he should. The 15/2 currently available looks much too big to me and I think he should be closer to the 4/1 mark, which may sound very wrong but I feel it's basically a bet on whether the horse will see out the mile properly and I'm more than happy to take a chance at this price. Everything points towards this horse being ready to put it all in today and I think he's worthy of medium sized stakes. Fingers crossed that nobody blasts off in front!

x PyRo

3:35 Lingfield - Fonterutoli - 2pts @ 11/1 (VC)

This is another tough contest to call and I've been going over and back between different horses, struggling to find which one to back. However, I believe that Fonterutoli must have a very good chance here purely on a couple of lines of form, especially his penultimate start which was over C&D, in which he finished a 1.75 length 5th behind todays likely favourite Pertuis. My selection now has a 4lb swing in the weights with Harry Dunlop's runner and was arguably unlucky in running in that race, when being denied a clear run through around a furlong from home and that ended his race. He has since run relatively poorly in a similar contest at Kempton but should be much more at home back here and I'm hopeful of a big run.

Another piece of form that looks interesting to me is his half length 2nd to Dark Promise, also over C&D. My selection was sent off as a 20/1 shot that day but ran a very good race, although he was flattered by the filly who idled severely when sent to the front. However, she has since won again, this time off a mark of 82, winning a shade cosily and looks like a 90+ rated horse at least. Strictly through a line with Lingfield Bound, a 5/1 shot here, Fonterutoli has the beating of him, in my opinion. So that makes the current 11/1 very big indeed. His last few runs have involved muddling paces throughout, which isn't in his favour, so I'm hoping they go off a bit quicker here, although I can't see too many pace angles but at the price, it's worth taking a chance on.

He only recently joined the Roger Ingram yard and has had 4 starts so far. I'm hoping that they know a fair bit more about this fellow by now and he has had the last few weeks without a race, having been quite busy since joining these connections. If Fonterutoli turns up here in the way that I think he can, I feel that his handicap mark of 72 is definitely not beyond him and he's not too far away from gaining his first win for this yard. He has won on polytrack, so conditions pose no problems and the only worry is how he'll be towed into this race, which is anyones guess but I reckon the big outsider, Mutajaaser, may make it a decent test, but he's off the track 10 months or so.

The Ingram yard aren't exactly firing on all cylinders of late but they seem to be going alright and this is their only runner of the day. When Robert Havlin rides for them at Lingfield, they strike up a decent win rate of 10%. Havlin is a decent jockey in my opinion and is riding quite well of late, plus this is his only ride of the day. He was on board Fonterutoli for the first time on his penultimate start and should know a fair bit more now, at least I hope he does. It's a very competitive affair to say the least and a number of runners interested me, but none more so than this fellow. He has the scope for improvement to get his head in-front soon and I think we'll see a much better effort here if he gets luck in running. He's well drawn and nicely priced too, so I'll take my chances on the pace being effective enough to see him get involved. I marked him up as a 7/1 shot, so I'm playing small/medium stakes at a very tasty price.

x PyRo

That's it for the moment, but I may have a max bet for tomorrow depending on price. Waiting until tomorrow afternoon before posting it though.

x PyRo

Chief Exec, in my biased opinion, would of won if he got a clear run through. He cantered along throughout and was going the best of the chasing group turning for home, but he couldn't get through until switching markedly right before running on into a half length 3rd. Gask has schooled him over hurdles of late just to get him bouncing again and it seems to have worked a treat. I hope he'll keep doing it and I'll be on again, price dependent. Another thing that annoyed me was Adam Kirby didn't take the ride, for some reason. Liam Keniry ended up on board and if I knew that before hand, I wouldn't of been too confident. Anyways, that's life but the horse was obviously fancied (went off 11/2) and I think he's worth keeping a close eye on.

Fonterutoli ran a decent yet uninspiring race. He finished in 7th position, a couple of lengths behind the leading group that were covered by a couple of lengths themselves. The race was run awfully, with the leaders going no pace up front until the final few furlongs, where it turned into an out and out sprint, so I doubt the form is too solid. That wasn't in my selections favour, who was stuck along the rail and unable to quicken on what's the slowest part of Lingfield, so he was dead and buried by then. I'll be backing him next time there's some solid pace in the line up. Hopefully the handicapper eases him a bit, but he's still potentially well handicapped at the moment, though only when conditions suit.

-5pts on the day and I'm not backing the other one I had planned to.

x PyRo

2:20 Southwell - Where's Reiley - 5pts @ 9/2 (WillHill)

I think that this is by far the best bet of the day and despite having form to turn around with a few runners, Where's Reiley can take advantage of a lenient looking handicap mark. He hasn't been at his best of late, running poorly between October and December, but has since dropped from a mark of 82 to todays rating of 68, which is 6lbs lower than his last C&D success, when routing his rivals by an easy 3 lengths in a similar contest. However, he does come with warning, as his yard are extremely shrewd, so it wouldn't be a shock to see him run awfully but I'll take my chances at odds that are significantly too big in my opinion. I selected him last twice, but his run last time out was fully of promise, a lot more impressive than anything he showed on his previous 4 appearances on the racecourse. He started slowly over the same C&D that he faces today, but ran on like a train from the back to eventually finish on the heels of the leaders in a close up 5th place, just 1.75 lengths behind the winner, Sleepy Blue Ocean, whom he re-opposes here on 3lb better terms. He'll also have to turn over form with Sharp Shoes (neck) and Bookiesindex Boy (1.25l), but is 1lb better off with the latter, who throws in good and bad performances with regular consistency. I think Barron's charge has more than enough ability to turn around that form and a quicker break should see him do it comfortably. The main worry is his regular habit of getting outpaced early on, but I can't see too much early speed, so he may escape this time and with his finishing prowess, he should be getting involved at the business end of affairs without too much problem, assuming he's let.

Where's Reiley loves this surface, as shown by his overall record, in which 4 of his 5 career wins have come here at Southwell, all over 5 furlongs. He seems particularly suited by a good gallop, which should be on the cards here, but I'm hoping it's not strong enough to see him outpaced from the offset, which is too regular for my liking. He notched up 4 C&D wins in the space of 8 weeks at the beginning of last year, winning initially off a mark of 62, before gaining the final one off a mark 0f 74, when beating a decent field in impressive fashion. One of those races was also this one, in which he's now 3lbs lower in the handicap and has the added benefit of Graham Gibbons on board. Gibbons is a top notch jockey in my opinion and has 1 win from 3 rides on board this lively 5 year old. Where's Reiley is Gibbons' best chance of a winner tomorrow from his 3 rides and he's riding well of late, including a couple of winners around here. He has an overall strike rate of 12% at Southwell but that jumps to a massive 29% strike rate when riding for David Barron, who boasts a fine individual record here of 162 winners from 779 runners, with a massive LSP of £205. He comes here with only 2 runners today, both of whom I expect to win and it could make a nice double. Barron also had 2 runners on Tuesday, priced at 10/1 and 5/1, both ended up seeing victory. This is clearly a happy hunting ground for the Barron team and I'm very hopeful that it'll be continuing today, with a horse who is extremely well handicapped and capable of blowing away the opposition on a going day, assuming connections aren't waiting for a better price. This is a competitive race by all means, but my selection is, in my opinion, the best handicapped horse in the race and the most likely to be suited by conditions. I actually marked him up as the 2/1 favourite and I think that the 9/2 available is absolutely massive. There is numerous dangers but I feel he's the most likely winner, the value call of the race and worthy of maximum stakes. He comes with a great deal of risk in ways but don't they all. Wish me luck!

x PyRo

4:20 Southwell - Mr Emirati - 3pts @ 4/1 (VC)

Disappointing favourite last time out but the stamina testing conditions may not have favoured him one bit and I expect the drop to 7f on the back of a good pace to be right up his street. He's a lightly raced 4 year old, with plenty of scope for improvement and I believe that his opening 2 efforts on this surface were filled with a lot of promise, so hopefully he can build on them now having his second run in the space of a week. Back in December, Mr Emirati was beaten on the nod by the progressive Steed, who he reopposes today on a massive 10lb better terms. That horse is clearly going the right way, but I don't think the drop in trip around here is as much in his favour as it is in my selections. The pull at the weights may be enough to overturn that form and with Mr Emirati potentially coming on for that run last time out (on the back of a 7 week break), I think that the 4/1 available is vastly overstating his chances of success.

The likely pace should come from John Balding's El Dececy or Jim Boyle's Khanivorous, both of whom seem to have decent amounts of pace and I expect that there'll be plenty to toe my selection into the race, which I think will see him in greater effect over this trip. Mr Emirati is trained by Bryan Smart, a very good trainer and the yard is bang in form since the turn of the yard. They'll be hopeful of getting another win out of their lightly raced 4 year old, who they paid 5,500gns for, but he was originally purchased for 140,000gns before the Smart team got their hands on him, so he was obviously expected to be a much better animal that his rating of 68. His US pedigree suggests he should be right at home on the Southwell surface and I think he'll prove much better for having run on it last twice. Tom Eaves takes the ride, as he has done last twice and he's a jockey I've sided with on a number of times. He does well for this yard and is overdue a winner, having gone 20 rides without success. If he can keep closer order on board this fellow, I think he'll be finishing as well as anything and should be able to get involved at the deep end. The horse is potentially a lot better than what he has shown to date and I think today could be the day it all comes together. 4/1 is overstating his chances somewhat, as I believe he should be around the 11/4-3/1 mark, with claims of being shorter. It's a tricky class 4 contest but I think he can take it in his stride and go on to be competitive off higher marks in the future. He opened at 9/2, so it's disappointing to miss that price but I think he'll go off significantly shorter than this and hopefully he justifies medium sized stakes. Looks to have a very live chance if things fall right.

x PyRo

(Totesport Trophy - 3:35 Newbury - Saturday 12th February)

Notus De La Tour - 2pts @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes - NRNB)

Tarkari - 1pt @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes - NRNB)

Reasoning to follow tomorrow evening.

x PyRo

Shite. Bookiesindex Boy finds something for once, typical.

Gutted.

Where's Reiley comes 2nd.

x PyRo

Where's Reiley ran a good race, just not good enough. He was beaten by 1 length, finishing behind an animal that usually finds little for pressure but absolutely galloped all over the opposition today. He'll be a max lay next time out! Disappointing result but Where's Reiley is definitely getting closer to winning and dependent on the opposition/price next time, I'd imagine I'll be playing similar stakes once again. He went off as the 7/2 favourite.

Mr Emirati was very disappointing. Raced wide throughout, which wasn't ideal but found next to nothing for pressure. Finished in 5th place and will only be interesting again if there's a decent price about. Went off as a 3/1 shot, which is about all I got right in that race. The highly progressive Steed won like a good thing and I wouldn't of backed him on those terms in a month of Sundays, wrongly of course!

-8pts on the day. Highly disappointing but onwards and upwards I hope.

UrbanSea

Don't worry,plenty more racing this weekend.

x PyRo

7:10 Wolverhampton - Realisation - 3pts @ 11/4 (WillHill)

Not going into too much detail with this one but I feel Mark Johnston's only runner at Wolverhampton could be worth siding with. He doesn't win as often as he should but has enough ability to go well here and has some decent form in the book around this course. He's dropping in grade now too, having run a good race in a class 3 contest last time out, when finishing 3rd to the inform Hidden Glory. Now that my selection is back up in grade, I feel we'll see a much better performance, as this extended 1m 4f trip should see him to greater effect. He should also come on for that run last time out, as it was on the back of a 2 month lay off.

Realisation has C&D form to turn around with Mongoose Alert, who beat him by over 3 lengths back in November. However, they meet here with a 9lb swing in favour of Johnston's runner, which I'm hopeful will be enough to turn around the form, if all goes to plan. Of the rest, Straversjoy looks a big danger based on his 6 length demolition job over C&D last time out. The talented filly is obviously in great form of late but she's up another 6lbs and was possibly flattered up against her own sex. She's now up against the boys and up in class, plus the course won't be riding as slow as it was a couple of weeks ago, so at 4/1, I'll readily oppose. Kindlelight Sun looks a decent type and shaped alright on his 2nd career start at Kempton a couple of weeks ago. That was on the back of 12 months off the track but looks a bit short at 3/1 and could be anything, so I'll pass over. The 2 outsiders don't have much hope in my opinion and I'll certainly leave them be.

The Mark Johnston yard are bang in form and especially here at Wolverhampton. With 8 winners from their last 10 runners, which is phenomenal. I'm just hoping that they've this fellow out to try, as his animals seem to run good and bad with regular consistency. However, this fellow rarely runs a bad race and he's very talented and potentially well handicapped, with a lot more to come yet. He gets a 3lb weight allowance for age, which will come in handy and he looks like the value call, as I've marked him up as a 7/4 shot. Realisation will also be partnered by Silvestre De Sousa for the first time and he's a jockey that rarely lets me down. He's a top notch horse man and I expect he'll be a big benefit to this relatively lightly raced 4 year old. Medium sized stakes here, for what is my only bet of the day and one I'm confident will return with the goods, although I've probably jinxed him now.