PyRo's Horse Bets.

clived2

Hello Pyro

Do you not finding betting on wolv etc where they are 1k prize races to be
very unpredictable etc, Also you are unsure of trainer intentions etc, whereas big racing, usuallly on saturday is much easier and much more profitable,

Also I notice most of your selections, their price shortens a lot, Would you not consider backing your selection the night before and laying befor the race hence the odds diff would be a "free bet" especially for weekday races at poor meetings

mickey mac

clived2 wrote: »

Also I notice most of your selections, their price shortens a lot, Would you not consider backing your selection the night before and laying befor the race hence the odds diff would be a "free bet" especially for weekday races at poor meetings

I'm 100% certain that Pyro knows this already!:D

clived2

mickey mac wrote: »

I'm 100% certain that Pyro knows this already!:D

Thanks for that.......:rolleyes:

I know well he knows all this stuff, I was just enquiring as to whether he does it or not

x PyRo

clived2 wrote: »

Hello Pyro

Do you not finding betting on wolv etc where they are 1k prize races to be
very unpredictable etc, Also you are unsure of trainer intentions etc, whereas big racing, usuallly on saturday is much easier and much more profitable,

Also I notice most of your selections, their price shortens a lot, Would you not consider backing your selection the night before and laying befor the race hence the odds diff would be a "free bet" especially for weekday races at poor meetings

I do surely Clive but I get severely bored with no proper flat racing so I like to have a bet on it anyways, even though it's tough to call. I'm always unsure of training intentions, not many people know them and even on a Saturday it's every bit as risky. So many horses aren't running to their merits week in week out and that obviously makes it tough, as everyone knows I'm sure.

I do trade out on my bets but not when they shorten. I wait for in running then do it and it usually pays off, especially with some of the longer shots oddly. Although I didn't trade out of the Where's Reiley bet, so I'm doubly gutted about that one! I could of got out at a shade over even money but got greedy and lost a nice sum there. Thought Bookiesindex Boy would fold as usual so I let it ride, big mistake but that's life.

Early one for tomorrow, pretty much the same write up as last week, when the meeting was called off.

1:10 Leopardstown - Louisville Lip - 2pts @ 13/2 (Coral)

This talented 4 year old has a good chance of gaining a Grade 1 scalp on only his second start over hurdles. He made his debut just under three weeks ago, when sent off as a 20/1 shot in what looked to be a competitive field. The way Louisville Lip traveled, jumped and asserted in the closing stages was highly impressive. He ran out a 2.5 length winner to Maxim Gorky, a previously decent animal on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute and whom he re-opposes today. Patrick Flynn's charge was value for more than the winning distance and won going away, despite stumbling shortly after taking the final flight in impressive fashion. He's sure to go on to a lot bigger and better things, whether a Grade 1 contest is within his grasp at such an early stage is debatable, but he does look high class and at 13/2, I'm more than happy to take a chance.

The vibes out of his yard are good, as they seem to really rate this fellow and expect he should come on tenfold for that recent run. Louisville Lip has previous race experience, having been a 9 race maiden on the flat at trips up to 12 furlongs. He was average to say the least, but always looked to be a better prospect once going over jumps, as he has both the size, speed and stamina to be much better in this code. Assuming he can kick on from that last win, I think he has massive claims here in a race containing similar lightly raced types. However, he's open to a lot more improvement and if he was from one of the leading yards, he'd be half this price at least. Dermot Weld trains the current favourite, another 1 race 1 win competitor going by the name of Unaccompanied. She gets a fillies allowance here, which is 5lbs, so that's a plus but she won a modest maiden hurdle first time up, jumping averagely over a few flights and is priced purely on her trainers potential, although she has lots of it herself. At 11/4, I'd rather take her on with something else.

Paul Nicholls trains the other big danger, a more experienced runner in comparison to my selection, as Indian Daudaie has already run 4 times over hurdles, winning once in France in a decent race and also placed in a French Group 1 on very testing ground. He made his debut for this yard in a Grade 2 contest at Cheltenham, when finishing a good 3rd of 7 behind Local Hero, who looks to be a more than classy type. However, 3/1 is much too skinny for me and despite the powerful connections, I'd rather oppose once again. There's a few more dangers, but assuming the race goes ahead, I'll happily side with the potential of Louisville Lip, who could be anything and already looks pretty exciting. Conditions are favourable and the race should pan out to suit, the only wonder is whether he's good enough, but 13/2 is enough for me to take a chance. Small/medium bet on a selection who I think should be no bigger than 5/1, with the potential to be even shorter based on how visually impressive he was first time up. Really looking forward to the race.

clived2

x PyRo wrote: »

I do surely Clive but I get severely bored with no proper flat racing so I like to have a bet on it anyways, even though it's tough to call. I'm always unsure of training intentions, not many people know them and even on a Saturday it's every bit as risky. So many horses aren't running to their merits week in week out and that obviously makes it tough, as everyone knows I'm sure.

Thanks for the reply

Specifically when I mention Saturday, I mean Big Races with Big Prize money,
Wherefore the trainer intentions is to win the race and not 1 of the following
1) trying at new trip
2) trying over new fences etc
NB 3) And trying to get favourable weight/odds concessions in big race

I find big prize money races much easier to find winners, and considering the study you put into poor races I am sure you do too.

x PyRo

I get what you mean in that respect although I love seeing a trainer trying out new trips, not sure why but I always get it in my head that the horse could improve under different conditions, which isn't always the case but on the flat I found many a winner that way, like my big bet on Cheveton in the Ayr Bronze Cup. He had 35 odd starts, never won at 6 furlongs before, done all his winning over 5 but usually finished out his races pretty soundly. Ended up seeing out 6f very strongly and won that day, so it paid off then but I could give numerous examples that lost, although I forget about those easier!

I find that bigger prizes etc do increase your chance of getting a horse that's actually going for it but it also increases the chances of running into a few more who are going for it too. Then it's down to numerous other things. I'd love to perfect who's trying to win the crap races, but as anyone over the last few months will know, it's really tough. Even Hugh Taylor/Segal and the likes were/are doing quite crap lately. I just can't wait for the flat to return, it's so much easier for me, even in poor races. This NH/AW stuff ain't my thing at all and I'm struggling big time but I've f'all else to be at so I just have a couple of bets every day to quell the boredom and then trade out for profit when the opportunity arises. I just don't like advising where people should trade out so I don't bother mentioning it, although if I did, the stats would look a lot nicer than they do at the moment.

x PyRo

Another previous selection, similar write up as before.

1:55 Newbury - Miss Overdrive - 2pts @ 10/1 (WillHill)

A wide open class 2 handicap over an extended 3 mile trip at Newbury, but I believe it could pay to side with this relatively lightly raced 7 year old mare. She comes here on the back of 2 decent runs, the first being a 7 length defeat to Barafundle, who finished 2nd to the David Pipe trained Grand Crus on his previous outing. The latter has since won a Grade 2 contest at his ease and is currently the 2nd favourite for the World Hurdle in March. The form of those races alone look quite strong, despite the wide margin winners. There should be a fairly good gallop from the off here, with numerous front runners lining up in opposition and that's exactly what my selection needs, as she sees out her races extremely well and gets 3 miles with relative ease. This trip is no ideal for her, if it's a good stamina test and I expect it to be. The ground is currently listed as Good to Soft, which is no problem to her, although I always thought she'd be better on better ground.

Miss Overdrive has been competitive at Listed level. She was staying on strongly that day from a long way back and gets another few furlong furlongs today, so anything better than that run could put her in with a shout here, assuming she steps up on it a bit. She also ran well enough over 3m 1f when coming 4th of 18 behind Universal Truth on her penultimate start. The winner was a handicap good thing and won with ease, but the rest were pretty close together and if it wasn't for the very testing Soft/Heavy ground, then my selection would of been a lot closer. That was probably a joint career best performance, so this 7 year old mare seems to be in fine form and possibly ready to take another step up on what she has shown to date. Another positive for me is that due to being rated only 120, she gets to run here off a riding weight of just 10st 11lbs, with her jockey, BJ Poste taking off another 7lbs to leave her effectively running off 113. He seems to get a decent tune out of her and with conditions likely to be ideal, he can add what seems an unlikely victory to that sequence. The mare is trained by Andy Turnell, who hasn't had too many winners of late but his runners seem to be running with credit and making the frame, so hopefully that's the case once again with this runner. If she's there or thereabouts 2 out, then there won't be too many keeping on as strongly as her, though the only worry is how easily she seems to get outpaced when the business end comes along.

This is a mightily tough contest but not beyond Miss Overdrive if she could put everything together, which she hasn't done too often. She ran awfully last time out, but that was in a Grade 3 contest at Sandown just a week ago. She smashed the 7th hurdle that day when already under pressure and never got involved, as she was well out of her depth. Now dropping back in class and up in trip, I'm expecting we'll see a lot more from this game Mare, who has enough ability and form in the book to land a race like this, if on song. Her jockey doesn't have the best of stats, having only ever won one race but that was when we was on board Miss Overdrive and he was also on board for her penultimate start, when she placed in a decent contest. He gets on alright with her and could be in line to get his second ever win if reproducing the effort when coming second behind handicap good thing, Barafundle, over C&D. 10/1 looks a perfectly acceptable price to me and the only doubt I have is how she'll handle 2 races in the space of a week, but at the price, it's worth taking a chance on. The favourite is much too short for me, he's vulnerable off this mark in this company and is probably better going the other way around. I'd much rather take him on and I feel Andy Turnell's charge is the one to do it with. She's priced at 10/1 which looks generous to me, as I had her down as a 7/1 shot. Small/medium stakes in the hope that she handles the short gap between her races and does what she has been threatening to do for a while and win.

x PyRo

Realisation finished 2nd, beaten by the 16/1 outsider of the race. Hayley Turner ended up on board after a jockey change. If I knew that originally then I'd of steered well clear, as I never get winners when I back her. Realisation was backed into the even money favourite and was selected at 10/3 last night, though there'd be a small R4 if he'd of won. Got the value but ended up with a jockey on board who I think is pretty useless. If only Silvestre was on board...

-3pts on the day.

x PyRo

Selections already posted a couple of days ago.

(Totesport Trophy)

3:35 Newbury - Notus De La Tour - 2pts @ 12/1 (Ladbrokes)

Previous selection of mine when making a modest return last time out, on the back of a 9 month break. He was well backed the night before and throughout the day but flattered to deceive, potentially being in need of the run. That race was 3 weeks ago, so it should be plenty of time to be ready to race again and I think he holds decent claims here in this Grade 3 Handicap, where it's notoriously hard to win when carrying much more than 11 stone. Notus De La Tour will have to shoulder 11st 1lb, but I don't think that should prove to be too much against him, as many of the fancied dangers are carrying a lot more weight, so it's all up to how good he'll be. His effort last time out was judged to be equal to his 2nd place finish in the Grade 3 Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival in 2010, so with the run likely to bring him on a fair bit from that, I'm expecting a much improved run and hopefully a winning run. Although he'd probably prefer ground conditions to be significantly worse than the current 'Good to Soft', I don't envisage too much problems because of it and he should be able to run his race. Tom Scudamore is also back on board, having had McCoy on last time and although McCoy is the best around, I wasn't too impressed with his ride last time out, although the horse seemed to hit a flat spot which put paid to his challenge but I felt he was kept too far back on the back of a very strong gallop, but it may have only delayed the inevitable anyways. That race was run over 2m 4f and they now step back to an extended 2 mile trip, which will be ideal if there's a strong gallop, which I'm expecting will be the case. The David Pipe team are in good form lately and they'll no doubt have this fellow ready to put in a good run. He has buckets of ability and although running off a mark which probably represents his ability, he may have a bit more to give on what is his 10th career outing. The 12/1 I took looked a good price (14's now) and I reckon he should be a bit shorter than that, although not too much.

My second bet is Tarkari - 1pt @ 33/1 (Ladbrokes). That price has disappeared and he's now 22/1 with a couple of firms and 16/1 elsewhere, which is a more realistic price for a horse who is extremely well handicapped. He's formerly out of the Willie Mullins stable but switched to the Evan Williams yard before making his debut last weekend in the Welsh Champion Hurdle, where he was sent off as the 18/1 outsider of the 5 runner field. However, he was running an absolute cracker despite being significantly 'wrong' at the weights with all of the field. Tarkari looked nailed on for 2nd place before smashing the last hurdle and ended up coming a close up 3rd behind a horse rated 15lbs higher than him, yet running off level weights. They were a long way behind the winner, Oscar Whiskey, who never looked like getting beaten and should go on to run well if lining up in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham. My selection is obviously still on an upward curve and is due to run off 4lbs higher in future engagements, which makes the 132 he runs off today looking a rather attractive mark. He's a rare improver having left the Mullins yard but Williams is a top trainer, in great form and very capable of getting more out of this 6 year old, who fits a lot of the trends for this race. I wouldn't be overly keen to back him at the price now, although it's still acceptable I suppose, but the 33/1 looked absolutely huge the other day and looks even bigger now. I think he has a lively chance near the foot of the weights and conditions to suit, although the more rain, the better. It should be a very exciting race to say the least and I think my two should run with credit if they run to ability.

x PyRo

2:10 Warwick - Working Title - 3pts @ 6/1 (VC)

On hurdles form, this fellow should have a good chance here. He's rated 149 over the smaller obstacles and running off 136 here over fences, which looks a very workable mark. He's from the Nicky Henderson yard and although a winner in this code, he's yet to fire on all cylinders yet, however, the sharp 2m 4f trip here should be ideal and I don't think this is an overly strong contest, with doubts to be had for many of the runners, including himself. Ground conditions should be ideal and I'm expecting a good gallop from the offset, with a couple of relentless gallopers lining up in opposition, which will be in the favour of Working Title. He's lightly raced in this sphere, having only had 6 runs to date, with only 1 victory to his name. As a 9 year old, there wouldn't be too much improvement expected but he always looked like he'd be a decent chaser and off a mark of 136, he could well be primed to take advantage. Andrew Tinkler takes the ride and he knows the horse well, having ridden him on a number of occasions. If he can get him settled in mid division and get him into a nice rhythm, then I think this race is there for the taking. The 6/1 available looks much too big and I marked him up as a 9/2 shot, which a couple of firms have him priced at. I think it's all set up for Working Title to run a cracker and I'm playing medium win stakes at a nice price.

x PyRo

3:40 Lingfield - Feelin Foxy - 2pts @ 7/1 (VC)

Although it'll take a career best to win here, I think that James Given's highly progressing mare could have a lively chance in this small field. She likes to make all and is full of speed, so the drop back in trip is going to suit, although she seems better around Kempton but has run well here over 6f. Feelin Foxy has been the model of consistency over the last number of months, making the frame on her last 7 starts, including 2 victories. If she gets an easy lead, which is possible, she could prove very dangerous if managing to get a couple of lengths on the field. The yard are in decent form and Micky Fenton is now taking the ride, replacing Franny Norton who was on board for her last 6 outings. A number of the opposition look vulnerable to me and I think the 7/1 about Feelin Foxy is a very good price, as I'd of put her closer to the 5/1 mark. She has decent claims and is worth a small/medium bet in the hope that she gets an easy lead and runs them into the ground.

x PyRo

4:50 Lingfield - Franco Is My Name - 5pts @ 13/2 (VC)

Highly talented individual who is probably best suited to Kempton but has won here over C&D and looks well enough treated. They're likely to go pretty quick from the off and that'll be ideal for Franco Is My Name, who gets 1m 4f comfortably and is best suited to truly run races. If the gaps open at the right time, then I can't see this fellow not being involved in the finish. He has a great strike rate on the all weather, winning 6 of his 14 starts and finishing unlucky on a number of other occasions. With the possibility of even more progression, I think that a mark of 86 is certainly not beyond him and now that Dane O'Neill takes the ride, I fancy his chances even more so. This is a tough race by all means but he's ideally suited to these bigger fields and is drawn decently enough. He travels well, has a good turn of foot and looks best suited to going left handed having edged left on a few occasions around Kempton, so I'm interested in him at Lingfield again, having finished a close up 3rd last time out over this C&D in a similarly hot contest when he took too long to get going. If things fall right for him, then I think he's the best handicapped horse in the race and winning is within his grasp. The 13/2 looks massive and I marked him up as a 4/1 chance, with claims of being shorter. He's still on the upgrade, very talented and likely to make his presence felt. Maximum bet for me, which does look a bit risky in such a wide open affair but he'll thrive in these conditions and I expect a huge run.

Total Staked - 17pts

If all lose, I'm done until Cheltenham.

x PyRo

Truly awful days racing, regardless of the loss of money. Not too worried about that.

Two non-runners at Newbury after it was called off and one who was pulled out earlier on.

Louisville Lip was so bad it couldn't of happened! Didn't run well, jumped awfully and never looked like getting involved. I usually avoid Irish racing and I think I should continue to do so. Can't even pick horses who run well, never mind win.

Working Title can't jump. I'll never back him again unless he shows something completely different in the future. He gave away numerous lengths at nearly every fence once the pace quickened and he was poor to say the least.

Feelin Foxy didn't run to her form. Broke slowly and was left in rear, which isn't ideal for a front runner!

Franco Is My Name, backed at 13/2, was sent off the 7/2 favourite. I thought he'd be the saviour of the day, but he could only manage to come around 5th place. Disappointing but that's racing.

-12pts on an awful day.

I'll tally up the stats later on but that's me finished until Cheltenham.

x PyRo

Bank - 265.63pts (+165.63pts)


Will have the monthly stats up sometime soon. It's -10pts for February now though, which is a disaster after a good start.

UrbanSea

Keep going,everyone has a bad run. One good day could wipe that out.

x PyRo

Being the mug I am, I'm going to keep trying. Too bored at night and this gives me something to be at!

1:50 Southwell

Wide open contest here over what should be a rapidly run 6 furlongs, with many potential pacesetters lining up in opposition. It ain't easy to make up ground here on a course that favours front runners, however, the two I'm going for here are tactically versatile and can drop in behind or follow up with the pace. The first of them is the Kevin Prendergast trained Convince, who at 10 year old, is certainly in his twilight years but shaped quite promisingly on his first start since rejoining this yard. He was slowly away last time out but ran on with real purpose, shaping as if needing the run on the back of a 4 month run. He's fully entitled to come on for that and now that he's off a mark of 55, against poorer animals and in a race likely to be run to suit, I think his 3rd course win beckons. The trainer does well at this course, Probert looks an interesting booking and at around the 6/1 mark, he's worth a small/medium sized stake.

The next one that interested me was Andrew Reid's lightly raced Attrition, who has only seen a racecourse on 6 occasions. He traveled well on a couple of his runs over turf and is one I expect to have enough ability to land a contest like this off his lowly mark of 49. He's only a 4 year old and hasn't really shown too much yet but handled soft ground on the turf and seemed to be alright on this surface when making his fibresand debut a couple of weeks ago. He finished down the field but was slowly away in a race run at a frantic gallop, which put paid to any hopes he had. However, that was on the back of a 3 month break and he's bound to come on for that. If the step up in trip combined with improved fitness works in his favour then I think he'll prove to be overpriced at something hopefully around the 20/1 mark. James Doyle is taking over too which is a big positive in my book and he's a jockey I really rate. Assuming he can get this potential improver positioned well, then I think his threats to finish strongly could be increased over the extra distance. He's worth chancing with a small bet, assuming the price is reasonable. Currently trading around the 14/1 mark but I'm hoping that'll go out a bit come the morning time.

Selections -

Convince - 2pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)
Attrition - 1pt @ 22/1 (VC)

Johner

The winners will flow soon, that 16/1 winner you napped on another forum today will surely get the ball rolling.

x PyRo

Cheers Johner, bloody typical that I didn't post a winner that'd take away the majority of my losses for the year!

3:20 Southwell - Hawaass - 1pt @ 22/1 (VC)

This could prove to be an utterly mad bet or else pure genius, as both horse and yard have had severe problems of late but Hawaass was a classy type for Mark Johnston and looks overpriced here. He hasn't seen a racecourse in nearly 2 years, so he's obviously had his problems but he went well fresh before and Ruth Carr's awful run of form is due to end sometimes soon, so maybe this could be it. Hawaass is a 6 year old now, lightly raced and now 8lbs lower than when sent off as the 6/1 favourite for a 20 runner Heritage Handicap at Epsom when last seen, in April of '09. Assuming he retains a fair chunk of his old abilities, then he has a decent chance of running well here, although it's worrying that he was only sold for 5k out of Johnston's yard. The opposition here are no great shakes and the majority of the runners, including Carr's, are opposable on various grounds. I'll just play minimum stakes here at a very nice price on this fellow, as I keep expecting the yard to come back to form and there'd be no better way to do that than having a winner who hasn't raced for 2 years. It's worth a small go in hope more than expectation.

Nulty

Paper trade or look at the cheltenham cards and races if you feel that way. Grand National weights are out tomorrow. I'd say its annoying missing Snow Dancer today. Did you have anything on it?

x PyRo

I backed it dude, 2pts at 20's as I put up on a daily thread elsewhere but not on any of my threads. It just goes to show that I'm giving them the kiss of extreme death by posting them.

x PyRo

3:50 Southwell - Calculating - 2pts @ 11/2 (WillHill)

Backed this fellow last time out, so I'm not going into too much detail here but I believe he's worth chancing again. Connections now see fit to step him back up in trip to his favoured 2 miles and I expect everything should pan out in his favour. Calculating was 7 lengths off the pace last time out but was undone by the oppositions turn of foot, which he hadn't a hope of matching. He finished behind the progressive Mush Mir, who he re-opposes here today but on 12lb better terms, which I believe is enough to turn around the form when coupled with the more suitable trip. David Probert also takes over from Lee Newnes and that's a positive for sure. The horses C&D record reads 3-1-1, which is obviously very impressive and he's well handicapped to strike, having gained the last of those wins from a 9lb higher mark in August of last year. A repeat of that performance would see him go close here and I think the 11/2 is vastly overstating his chances. He's worth a small/medium bet in the hope that he'll turn around the form with the fav, which he's more than capable of doing. A big run is coming soon from this fellow, so hopefully today's the day. Trainer in good knick too, which only adds to his chances.

Nulty

Well thats grand then! Money in the bank.

x PyRo

Not on the thread though. I want it here too. :pac:

You're on fire lately, keep up the good work. Can't wait for the new flat season, like yourself I'd say. This NH/AW stuff isn't as exciting imo.

Nulty

Its just the bad days racing. I can work with crap flat horses but not crap jumps. I'm looking at the National now cause I cant be bothered with the racing tomorrow.

x PyRo

Attrition lands the odds after being well punted. Super James Doyle! He's class,

Johner

x PyRo wrote: »

Attrition lands the odds after being well punted. Super James Doyle! He's class,

Great stuff. You are back.

On another note watching Spider Boy in the 2.00 at Folkestone reminded me why I love NH, the racing might be poor but at 14 years old he gets his 4th win in his 80th start under rules! 32 placed efforts as well. Brought a smile to my face watching him gamely repel all comers from the front.

x PyRo

Cheers Johner, feels nice to post a winner!

I didn't see the race but you're not the first going on about him. There's a few others on facebook et all banging on! Really nice to see the older horses still winning. I'd love to see The Tatling get one more win.

Johner

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers Johner, feels nice to post a winner!

I didn't see the race but you're not the first going on about him. There's a few others on facebook et all banging on! Really nice to see the older horses still winning. I'd love to see The Tatling get one more win.

One more win for The Tatling and I'd say he will be retired, was meant to be his last run a couple of starts ago but he ran so well and came second I'd say they feel there's another one in him, great horse.

Mush Mir was impressive there.

x PyRo

Sure was, bastard of a horse! :pac:

Attrition lands the spoils to make it a profitable day. I expected more prominent tactics but I didn't think he'd get the chance to make all in a field with numerous front runners, but he did and did it in style. Kudos to James Doyle for a very good ride and it never really looked in doubt. How he was 22/1 this morning is beyond me and he was well punted into 7/1 before duly obliging. My other selection, Convince, was under pressure a long way from home but stayed on well past beaten horses to finish 4th, nearly getting a place but lost out in a photo.

Hawaass was awful and not much else can be said. He's obviously a tricky one to train and with the way Carr's yard has been of late, I doubt he'll be doing any more winning for a while.

Calculating was well backed to go off the 7/2 second favourite but he ran into a handicap good thing in Mush Mir, who jogged all over his rivals and won with ease.

+17pts on a very, very good day.

Overall Bank - 282.63pts (+282.63pts)

February -

(Profit)/Loss - +7.75pts

Bets - 32
Wins - 4
Placed - 8
SR - 12.5%
Staked - 72pts
Returned - 79.75pts
ROI - 10.7%

argosy2006

Thats good to see, So many favourites are winning, Good to see a big price winner
well done