PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

3:30 Lingfield - Final Verse - 2pts @ 9/1 (Bet365)

Tricky customer who finds winning tough lately but may be worth pursuing with once again. He's a previously class act, rated 109 in his day and was competitive at Group level. Final Verse is now an 8 year old, but running pretty consistently despite failing to take advantage in a seller last time out, where he was a disappointing 4th. However, that leads to another bit of leeway from the handicapper and now that he's running off a mark of 70, I think he should be getting competitive here. He's a C&D winner from 3lbs higher, likes to be held up and is best suited when running at a strong pace, which he will almost definitely get to do here. George Baker takes the ride for the first time on this fellow and that's a huge positive in my opinion. He doesn't ride too often for Matthew Salaman (1 from 5) and it looks like a very interesting booking. The return to a mile will help and everything looks set for a big performance from this fellow, who would blow these away if returning to anything like his usual self. The pace should be solid, the jockey booking is solid and Lingfield should suit his style. I'm hopeful of a big run from this fellow and I think 9/1 is vastly overstating his chances, even though this is a wide open contest. Small/medium stakes in the hope that he'll return to winning ways.

x PyRo

5:10 Kempton - Lunar River - 1pt 7/1 (Bet365)

This is by no means an inspiring contest, with none of the runners having a win on their recent records, but it may pay to side with Lunar River, who seems at her best when carrying more weight against inferior opposition. She has been running very consistently on her last 11 starts since August and hasn't been beaten by more than 7 lengths in that time, which isn't amazing but it's not bad for such a low level handicapper. She's now running off a mark of 50, with a further 3lbs taken off from her jockey and that combined with the drop in class (for the first time) to this awful class 7 level, should see her get competitive here. She hasn't won for nearly 2 years but has run many a good race in that time and now that she's 13lbs below her last winning mark, I'm hopeful that can all change around. This is an apprentice race but Lunar River is in the capable hands of James Rodgers (only ride), who is one of the better jockeys in this contest. He also has the added benefit of previous experience on this mare, with 3 placed efforts from 6 rides and a couple of other decent runs. She also has some decent course form off much higher marks and could well be rejuvenated for the change of track, despite the fact that she's never raced here. As I say, it's not a great contest and anything could come out of the woodwork but I think she's worth having a minimum stakes bet at likely odds of around 10/1, which overstates her chances in my opinion. She finished weakly last time out, which is the only reason she's this price but the Wolverhampton track was riding quite slow that day, which isn't in her favour. She's well drawn, probably too well drawn as I'd prefer to see her held up but things should pan out in her favour and she'll get a good pace to run at. Small stakes but she has a big chance if running to her abilities, though her overall profile says she'll run well, but possibly not well enough.

Price to follow in the morning time.

x PyRo

5:40 Kempton - Lytham - 2pts @ 14/1 (VC)

Recent form would give this fellow little hope. However, I believe he has valid excuses and the return to his favourite track will see him in a greater light, with victory from a big price very likely. He made his return to racing here over C&D back in December, on the back of what was a 7 month lay off. He wasn't suited by the slow early pace, pulled hard and folded tamely before being eased coming into the home straight. Lytham is definitely one who needs a run to be fully wound up, as proved numerous times in the past, so I'll happily pass over that form as nothing like his usual. It would seem worrying that his next & latest 2 runs were also awful efforts, where he came last on both occasions but his trainer says he hates Wolverhampton and it certainly seemed like that last twice. He now drops 8lbs in the weights for those 3 runs and I expect he could be bang in contention now that he's returned to the course that he has won 7 times at, all from just 12 runs.

He's handicapped 5 & 7lbs below his last 2 course wins and he's likely to get a good pace to run at, which is highly desired. He's a big horse and now 10 years old, so it'd be no surprise if he needed those few runs to come on and I fully expect a much improved effort here. The yard are in decent knick and do well at the course, whilst Neil Callan takes over the reins and he has 4 wins & 6 seconds from 21 rides here for this yard. Callan was riding out of his skin when last seen in November and he's a big positive to any horses chance of gaining victory. Assuming he's not too rusty on the back of a few months off, he could have a good chance of getting a nice priced winner here, plus he also has a number of rides before Lytham, which should shake off any cobwebs that may be there. Callan rides the track superbly, with an overall 15% strike rate and 9 winners from his last 23 rides, which is brilliant. He'll hopefully prove to be a welcomed addition to this animal, who hasn't had him on board before. Assuming the horse isn't completely spent and the reasons for his poor runs last thrice are legitimate, then I feel he has a very good chance in this lowly contest. He's likely to be around the 20/1 mark, which is huge and is definitely worth a small/medium bet. If I get that price, I'll be delighted and I expect it'll shorten significantly if he's ready to do the business. Noah Jameel rates as a big danger in my opinion but he may prove better over further but could be worth a small stake saver as he made a pleasing comeback after a break.

x PyRo

6:10 Kempton - Fair Passion - 3pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

I was going to call it a day with just the 3 selections, but then I noticed this lively filly was out and I have to back her. I previously selected her when she finished 2nd to the speedy Love You Louis . A replication of that run would suffice here and I think that Derek Shaw's filly should have every chance of winning here, despite a less than impressive return to racing when last seen. However, that was on the back of a 3 month lay off and I expect she should improve for having had it. If she runs to within any of her latest 2 C&D starts, then it's not hard to see Fair Passion getting involved in the finish and winning. She has some very solid form, including a 2.5 length defeat in a higher grade by Piscean, twice a winner since and has run numerous other good races off marks as high as 97.

Fair Passion was sent off the 4/1 favourite last time out and finished 2.75 length behind Island Legend, whom she re-opposes here on 3lb better terms, but the course riding slow that day didn't help my selection by the looks of it and the return to Kempton could help swing that around if all goes well. Jimmy Quinn takes over the reins today and he gets on well with this 4 year old, having been the man to guide her to both career victories to date. He'll be forced to take a sit towards the rear as they're drawn wide in stall 7 but that may be no bad thing, as I think she'll prove to be a better animal when held up on the back of a strong pace. She's only had 12 career starts, so it's more than likely that there's more to come from this animal and I think that a mark of 74 could underestimate her abilities. She's likely to be around the 8/1 mark, which is huge in my opinion and I'd of expected something around 5/1. The trainer seems to have his stable in good order and this is his only runner of the day, let's hope he makes it count. Medium sized stakes at a price that'll be taken in the morning.

The Jman

Hey Pyro, any thoughts on Black Baccara in the 6.10? Seems to be in decent form so I thought was in with a good shout....

scopper

The Jman wrote: »

Hey Pyro, any thoughts on Black Baccara in the 6.10? Seems to be in decent form so I thought was in with a good shout....

I think Pyro has backed Black Baccara before (we'll see when he comes online), but for what it is worth I think there is always a decent shot with that horse. All the same Black Baccara almost always places rather than wins so don't go crazy!

x PyRo

It has a chance for sure but I hate backing horses who are out of the weights. All her better form is in class 6 & 7 races vs donkeys and this isn't a bad contest despite being a class 5. She's a decent horse but looking a bit exposed now and finds winning tough. I wouldn't put you off her by any means but I think there's at least 2 that should fare out better here but she's got a lively enough chance.

x PyRo

x PyRo wrote: »

5:10 Kempton - Lunar River - 1pt 7/1 (Bet365)

This is by no means an inspiring contest, with none of the runners having a win on their recent records, but it may pay to side with Lunar River, who seems at her best when carrying more weight against inferior opposition. She has been running very consistently on her last 11 starts since August and hasn't been beaten by more than 7 lengths in that time, which isn't amazing but it's not bad for such a low level handicapper. She's now running off a mark of 50, with a further 3lbs taken off from her jockey and that combined with the drop in class (for the first time) to this awful class 7 level, should see her get competitive here. She hasn't won for nearly 2 years but has run many a good race in that time and now that she's 13lbs below her last winning mark, I'm hopeful that can all change around. This is an apprentice race but Lunar River is in the capable hands of James Rodgers (only ride), who is one of the better jockeys in this contest. He also has the added benefit of previous experience on this mare, with 3 placed efforts from 6 rides and a couple of other decent runs. She also has some decent course form off much higher marks and could well be rejuvenated for the change of track, despite the fact that she's never raced here. As I say, it's not a great contest and anything could come out of the woodwork but I think she's worth having a minimum stakes bet at likely odds of around 10/1, which overstates her chances in my opinion. She finished weakly last time out, which is the only reason she's this price but the Wolverhampton track was riding quite slow that day, which isn't in her favour. She's well drawn, probably too well drawn as I'd prefer to see her held up but things should pan out in her favour and she'll get a good pace to run at. Small stakes but she has a big chance if running to her abilities, though her overall profile says she'll run well, but possibly not well enough.

Lovely. Scoots in. Pity I hadn't more on.

x PyRo

Final Verse was well backed all day, going off at 5/1. However, things didn't pan out in his favour as the gallop wasn't overly strong and he was checked when making progress in the home straight. He did run on well though and finished a close up 5th place, but needs quite a lot of luck in running. I'll be persisting with him, as a win is surely not too far away.

Lunar River was also quite well supported from 7/1 early doors into 5/1. She ran a brilliant race as everything was run to suit, with a stop start pace ensuring she could use her impressive turn of foot. She came up the inside rail and scooted home by over 3 lengths, with the drop in grade clearly doing her a lot of favours. The only thing I'm disappointed with is not having had more than the solitary 1 point on her. However, a win's a win.

Lytham came back to form in ways, running a respectable race but wasn't really suited to how things panned out. He was well supported throughout the day before drifting on course but put in a better effort. A win may not be too far away assuming he runs here at Kempton again and I'll be on, assuming he's a decent price. Noah Jameel, the one I rated as the main danger and worthy of a saver, was the one who won. I should of had a saver!

Fair Passion showed decent early speed to take a handy position but in the end it told as she dropped away tamely enough. She was absolutely friendless in the market, drifting from 8/1 out to 14/1 and 19.5 on the exchange. I still think she's worth pursuing with, especially if the handicapper gives her some leniency.

+/- 0pts on the day. Meh!

x PyRo

4:00 Southwell - Guto - 2pts @ 10/1 (Bet365)

Tough horse to win with and on a long losing run, stretching back to September of 09, a full 26 races ago. However, things are likely to pan out in his favour and Guto has been running quite well in recent months, shaping as if a win may not be too far away. He's a 4 time C&D winner, who has a lot of speed on his day but doesn't win as often as he should. Though I think the jockey booking of Martin Lane is very significant and although the horse loses his previous riders 7lb claim, the skill of Lane is far superior and worth more than the weight to a horse like this. Lane was the man on board for his last success, when scooting home in a 14 runner contest at Ayr, off a 13lb higher mark. That was the only time he took the ride on this fellow and I think he could well pay dividends yet again, in a race that is likely to be fast and furious, potentially playing into the hands of the well handicapped Guto. All of his course wins have come from higher marks and both of them in this grade, so he looks well treated off a mark of 57, despite being obviously exposed. He has about 4.5 lengths to make up with likely favourite, Shawkantango, but is 6lbs better off now, which may be enough to overturn the form and the price difference is too big.

Guto is trained by Bill Rathcliffe and he runs two in this race, with Colorus also lining out. Although I couldn't have him at the price, unless the jockey bookings were swapped around. Lane is a wonderful jockey and has got many a nice winner for me in the past, so he'll hopefully prove a big plus to the horse. He also has a wonderful record around Southwell, with 16% of his mounts winning and many more making the frame. He only has 2 rides here today, the other taking on a likely odds on favourite who should win and I think this is definitely his best chance of success, in what's a relatively weak contest, where the 2 last time out winners may struggle to follow up. I'll happily take them on with the one I consider the value of the race, which is obviously Guto. He loves it around here and his turn to win shouldn't be too far away, so here's hoping that it's today. Small/medium sized stakes on a horse who I believe should be around the 6/1 mark, not the 10/1 generally available. There's a fair chance this fellow won't shorten in the market, being the apparent second string but I think he holds better claims than his stablemate, who is a horse I've opposed a few times, with some success too.

x PyRo

6:00 Wolverhampton - Quick Single - 1pt @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Extremely tentative selection, in what is a stunningly bad class 7 handicap over an extended 7 furlongs. However, I thought Quick Single plugged on decently at Kempton last time out and could be worth siding with once again. He's only a 5 year old but has dropped his form markedly, having won off a maiden when rated 57 & a handicap when rated 63 as a 3 year old, both around Lingfield. He was then rated as a 74 animal but seems to have deteriorated significantly, although so have many of the opposition here and it may pay to side with a horse who used to be half decent. Although his run last time out wasn't awe inspiring by any means, he ran a close up 5th despite being badly under pressure a long way from home. He's not reunited with Adam Kirby, a man riding very well of late and the only man to gain success on his back, twice from just 4 rides. Assuming he can have a positive effect on board this fellow, I think he'll be involved off a mark of 45. The yard aren't in great form, which will hopefully be reflected in his price. I'm expecting he'll be around the 14/1 mark, hopefully bigger but I think it's worth a minimum stakes bet, as the horse has ability, but just rarely shows it nowadays. The opposition are equally poor and there's no great shakes here, so he'll get a chance to strut his stuff, assuming it's still there somewhere.

x PyRo

7:00 Wolverhampton

I'm backing 2 horses in this 6 furlong contest, the first of which is Derek Shaw's Tourist, who is extremely well handicapped on all know form, but obviously on a downward spiral. He's running here of a mark of 72, but was rated 89 back in November and 92 at the beginning of last year. He clearly hasn't been himself but came in for strong support last time out, also over C&D, when punted from 25/1 the night before into an SP of 8/1. He ran too badly to be true, reportedly having bled and assuming he's alright now that it's 1 month later, I feel he's worth having another chance on. He's 3 time course winner, 2 of which were over C&D, both off higher marks than this. So he's well handicapped, likes it here and is in the capable hands of Jimmy Quinn, who has ridden him to success on 2 occasions. I think he'll be around the 10/1 mark, which is a perfectly acceptable price and he's worth a minimum stakes bet in the hope that he'll return to form. He clearly has the ability and the handicapper has given him a massive chance here, plus the race should pan out to suit. Tourist is also Derek Shaw's only runner at Wolverhampton today.

The next horse who caught my eye was Derek Haydn Jones' Gwilym, twice a course winner from similar marks. The handicapper has also given him a chance and combined with a good draw, Dane O'Neill on top and the yards excellent record here, I think he holds decent claims. He's 4lbs lower than his last win, running well of late and should be favoured by the return to Wolverhampton, having run well at Lingfield last time out. I've backed this fellow on a number of occasions, also on his last win and he owes me little at this stage, but I think this is an ideal opportunity for him to get his 7th career win at the 75th attempt. Gwilym should also be around the 10/1 mark, which will be a nice price and I think between himself and Shaw's runner, I've a good chance of landing on the money. This is a winnable race for either of my selections if they run to their abilities and hopefully they won't run into one too good, as Fahey's runner does worry me. I'll still just play minimum stakes on both of these.

Selections -

Tourist - 1pt @ 11/1 (VC)
Gwilym - 1pt @ 8/1 (Bet365)

thesandeman

Lads if ye are planning on backing Quick Single it is 20s with a couple of places but as little as 14 with others so it might be worth getting on early.

x PyRo

Previous selection, including when the meeting was called off last weekend. The price is mystifying.

Pretty much an identical write up as not much has changed, bar the ground.

12:10 Newbury - Miss Overdrive - 3pts @ 16/1 (Bet365)

A wide open class 2 handicap over an extended 3 mile trip at Newbury, but I believe it could pay to side with this relatively lightly raced 7 year old mare. She comes here on the back of 2 decent runs, the first being a 7 length defeat to Barafundle, who finished 2nd to the David Pipe trained Grand Crus on his previous outing. The latter has since won a Grade 2 contest at his ease and is currently the 2nd favourite for the World Hurdle in March. The form of those races alone look quite strong, despite the wide margin winners. There should be a fairly good gallop from the off here, with numerous front runners lining up in opposition and that's exactly what my selection needs, as she sees out her races extremely well and gets 3 miles with relative ease. This trip is no ideal for her, if it's a good stamina test and I expect it to be. The ground is currently listed as Soft, which is no problem to her, although I always thought she'd be better on better ground.

Miss Overdrive has been competitive at Listed level. She was staying on strongly that day from a long way back and gets another few furlong furlongs today, so anything better than that run could put her in with a shout here, assuming she steps up on it a bit. She also ran well enough over 3m 1f when coming 4th of 18 behind Universal Truth on her penultimate start. The winner was a handicap good thing and won with ease, but the rest were pretty close together and if it wasn't for the very testing Soft/Heavy ground, then my selection would of been a lot closer. That was probably a joint career best performance, so this 7 year old mare seems to be in fine form and possibly ready to take another step up on what she has shown to date. Another positive for me is that due to being rated only 120, she gets to run here off a riding weight of just 10st 11lbs, with her jockey, BJ Poste taking off another 7lbs to leave her effectively running off 113. He seems to get a decent tune out of her and with conditions likely to be ideal, he can add what seems an unlikely victory to that sequence. The mare is trained by Andy Turnell, who hasn't had too many winners of late but his runners seem to be running with credit and making the frame, so hopefully that's the case once again with this runner. If she's there or thereabouts 2 out, then there won't be too many keeping on as strongly as her, though the only worry is how easily she seems to get outpaced when the business end comes along.

This is a mightily tough contest but not beyond Miss Overdrive if she could put everything together, which she hasn't done too often. She ran awfully last time out, but that was in a Grade 3 contest at Sandown just 2 weeks ago. She smashed the 7th hurdle that day when already under pressure and never got involved, as she was well out of her depth. Now dropping back in class and up in trip, I'm expecting we'll see a lot more from this game Mare, who has enough ability and form in the book to land a race like this, if on song. Her jockey doesn't have the best of stats, having only ever won one race but that was when we was on board Miss Overdrive and he was also on board for her penultimate start, when she placed in a decent contest. He gets on alright with her and could be in line to get his second ever win if reproducing the effort when coming second behind handicap good thing, Barafundle, over C&D. 10/1 looks a perfectly acceptable price to me and the only doubt I have is how she'll handle 2 races in the space of a week, but at the price, it's worth taking a chance on. The favourite is much too short for me, he's vulnerable off this mark in this company and is probably better going the other way around. I'd much rather take him on and I feel Andy Turnell's charge is the one to do it with. She's priced at 16/1 which looks extremely generous to me, as I had her down as a 7/1 shot. Medium stakes in the hope that she handles the short gap between her races and does what she has been threatening to do for a while and win.

x PyRo

Guto drifted from 10/1 out to 25/1, which told its own story. He ran accordingly and finished last of the 7. I'll be passing over him from now on I'd say, unless he gets some more leeway from the handicapper.

Quick Single ran a good 3rd place after going off as a 14/1 shot, with 20/1 readily available in the morning. He was under pressure a fair way from home, struggling to keep up but he made decent late headway to finish behind the front 2 but unable to land a blow. It would of been decent place money, if I went each way!

Tourist and Gwilym failed to land any blows, so I'll be leaving those 2 alone for the foreseeable.

-5pts on the day, but optimistic of landing a couple more soon.

x PyRo

1:50 Newbury - Bothy - 2pts @ 10/1 (WillHill)

Lightly raced 5 year old, who returns to run over hurdles for the first time since coming a gallant second to Menorah in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham. He's now 9lbs higher than that run, but he's lightly raced, clearly on the up and ideally suited to todays conditions, now that the ground is turning up soft. Bothy has only run over hurdles on 5 occasions, winning his first 3 starts before finishing a decent 7th place in the Fred Winter at the Cheltenham festival. The ground was good that day, which wasn't ideal and it was a good run with all things considered. He was kept ticking over with a few runs on the flat (where he's a decent performer) but stepped up on all known form when chasing home the current Champion Hurdle second favourite. Bothy also had a run in a 'Jumpers Bumper' at Southwell just before the New Year, so he should be in good enough knick to run his race here and I expect he'll get involved in the finish. He runs here off 136, which may not be beyond him and Danny Cook takes off a valuable 3lbs from his claim, leaving the horse to carry 10st 7lbs, a weight that'll surely prove handy on this ground. The Brian Ellison yard are flying lately and they'll be sure to have the horse spot on for this, plus I'm sure there's still a lot more to come from him. He jumps well, travel well and is ideally suited by this track. I think the 10/1 is a nice price and he has a decent chance off a relatively low weight. Small/medium sized bet at a price that could well get shorter. Let's hope it keeps raining and his chances will be increased even more.

x PyRo

Only those 2 until the morning, when I'll be posting up a max bet. Should be around the 8/1 mark and I really fancy its chances. Although it's in a class 6 handicap so it's potential insanity! But I'll take my chances.

Putting it up in the morning after I get my price.

x PyRo

2:20 Lingfield – Ivory Lace – 5pts @ 6/1 (Betfred)

This is a potentially insane maximum bet, as the horse is 1 from 46 on the All-Weather, however, I think that she's bang in form and ready to strike with everything likely to be set up for her. Given her hold up style, she needs a lot of luck in running, which is partly the reason why she has only won once since September of 2007 but she has shaped very well on her last few outings, when things weren't as suitable. They're likely to go a very good gallop here, with numerous potential pacesetters followed by a number of pressers, so I'm anticipating bright early speed and the race to be set up for someone closing from the rear, which I'm hopefull will be Ivory Lace. She's 10 years old now, certainly in her twilight years but her last 3 runs have given cause for optimism and there's still life in the old dog yet. All 3 runs came here, 2 of them over C&D but it was the first of them that interested me the most. They didn't go a good gallop up front and she took a long time to pick up coming into the straight. When she did, she made eye catching progress to finish a three-quarter length 3rd. However, she was given a poor ride by Richard Rowe in my opinion, as he just whipped her and remained pretty motionless in the saddle. His record of 6 wins in 250 odd rides really showed and now that Andrew Heffernan takes over, I think her time is certainly now, plus he takes off a very handy 3lbs. The winner of that race, Ede's Dot Com, has since won again in decent style.

Despite being unable to win in recent times, Ivory Lace has been quite consistent, rarely ever beaten by far and terribly unlucky in running on a number of occasions. She's now 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, 10lbs if you include the jockeys claim and 25lbs lower than her best career win. Her form under Heffernan reads ; 2-6-3, which ain't half bad and for the 2 placings, she went short odds on in running on both occasions, losing out by a nose and 1 length, plus she wasn't beaten too far on the other. Heffernan is obviously a big plus to this animal and I think he has a wonderful chance of gaining his first win on her at the 4th attempt. He only has 2 rides today, the other is a virtual no-hoper and he's riding well of late. I'm just delighted that they've taken the other fellow off her back, as he's clearly a hinderance to her chances and the booking of a much better jockey is a huge positive. Ivory Lace is a course winner but it was a long, long time ago. Plus it was over 5 furlongs, so she obviously has decent speed but this 7 furlong trip has been her optimum for a long time now. She usually finishes out her races wonderfully, but has the pace to keep up in the early stages when they go fast, hence why she'll more than need the good gallop today, as it takes her too long to pick up on the back of modestly run races. Her C&D record shows consistency, yet no victories but I'm convinced that today is the day to change that. In 16 runs over C&D, she has finished 2nd on 4 occasions and 3rd on 3, the majority off much higher marks and in much tougher races. She runs here in a class 6 contest against like minded animals who find winning tough and this is one of the main reasons I think she's by far and away the most likely winner here, as she's holding her form significantly better than the majority and arguably the best handicapped. It's a big risk going for a maximum bet in a race like this, but at the price, she's the one to be on and I think she'd be a very worthy favourite. The yard are yet to have a winner on Lingfield's All-Weather track but they've had 9 seconds, 7 thirds and 8 fourths from a total of 70 runners. This is a brilliant chance to break their Lingfield 'hoodoo' and I fully expect a very big performance from the talented yet frustrating, Ivory Lace. Fingers and toes crossed that she justifies my confindence and goes on to win. As I say, it's a risk but I'm very hopeful that today's the day.

Mr E

Good luck Pyro.... your luck is due to turn any day now.

thesandeman

Here we go lads. Pyro and Aidan both fancy the first one so fingers crossed. Would be a nice start to weekend.

Mr E

2nd last by the looks of it.

frat

x PyRo wrote: »

2:20 Lingfield – Ivory Lace – 5pts @ 6/1 (Betfred)

This is a potentially insane maximum bet, as the horse is 1 from 46 on the All-Weather, however, I think that she's bang in form and ready to strike with everything likely to be set up for her. Given her hold up style, she needs a lot of luck in running, which is partly the reason why she has only won once since September of 2007 but she has shaped very well on her last few outings, when things weren't as suitable. They're likely to go a very good gallop here, with numerous potential pacesetters followed by a number of pressers, so I'm anticipating bright early speed and the race to be set up for someone closing from the rear, which I'm hopefull will be Ivory Lace. She's 10 years old now, certainly in her twilight years but her last 3 runs have given cause for optimism and there's still life in the old dog yet. All 3 runs came here, 2 of them over C&D but it was the first of them that interested me the most. They didn't go a good gallop up front and she took a long time to pick up coming into the straight. When she did, she made eye catching progress to finish a three-quarter length 3rd. However, she was given a poor ride by Richard Rowe in my opinion, as he just whipped her and remained pretty motionless in the saddle. His record of 6 wins in 250 odd rides really showed and now that Andrew Heffernan takes over, I think her time is certainly now, plus he takes off a very handy 3lbs. The winner of that race, Ede's Dot Com, has since won again in decent style.

Despite being unable to win in recent times, Ivory Lace has been quite consistent, rarely ever beaten by far and terribly unlucky in running on a number of occasions. She's now 7lbs lower than her last winning mark, 10lbs if you include the jockeys claim and 25lbs lower than her best career win. Her form under Heffernan reads ; 2-6-3, which ain't half bad and for the 2 placings, she went short odds on in running on both occasions, losing out by a nose and 1 length, plus she wasn't beaten too far on the other. Heffernan is obviously a big plus to this animal and I think he has a wonderful chance of gaining his first win on her at the 4th attempt. He only has 2 rides today, the other is a virtual no-hoper and he's riding well of late. I'm just delighted that they've taken the other fellow off her back, as he's clearly a hinderance to her chances and the booking of a much better jockey is a huge positive. Ivory Lace is a course winner but it was a long, long time ago. Plus it was over 5 furlongs, so she obviously has decent speed but this 7 furlong trip has been her optimum for a long time now. She usually finishes out her races wonderfully, but has the pace to keep up in the early stages when they go fast, hence why she'll more than need the good gallop today, as it takes her too long to pick up on the back of modestly run races. Her C&D record shows consistency, yet no victories but I'm convinced that today is the day to change that. In 16 runs over C&D, she has finished 2nd on 4 occasions and 3rd on 3, the majority off much higher marks and in much tougher races. She runs here in a class 6 contest against like minded animals who find winning tough and this is one of the main reasons I think she's by far and away the most likely winner here, as she's holding her form significantly better than the majority and arguably the best handicapped. It's a big risk going for a maximum bet in a race like this, but at the price, she's the one to be on and I think she'd be a very worthy favourite. The yard are yet to have a winner on Lingfield's All-Weather track but they've had 9 seconds, 7 thirds and 8 fourths from a total of 70 runners. This is a brilliant chance to break their Lingfield 'hoodoo' and I fully expect a very big performance from the talented yet frustrating, Ivory Lace. Fingers and toes crossed that she justifies my confindence and goes on to win. As I say, it's a risk but I'm very hopeful that today's the day.

Backed him at 6's, out to 12's now. Hope the drift isn't a sign of how he will run. fingers crossed!!

x PyRo

Usually is. Looks ominous.

x PyRo

Christ. Not my day at all.

iqon77

I do like this thread... Pyro, what sort of success rate have you had with this...

keep up the hard work !!..

x PyRo

Cheers Iqon, I'll keep going anyways!

Miss Overdrive finished 6th of 12, in what was a decent run but she paid for hitting a flat spot when the pace quickened. It was an improvement though and I still think she's worth pursuing with, as nothing got into it from the rear in this race and she stayed on gamely enough when beaten. Disappointing but all's not lost.

Bothy ran an absolute cracker. He jumped well and traveled well but didn't have enough in the tank to repel the challenge of Recession Proof, who looks a very nice type. My selection eventually went down by a short-head and is clearly going the right way, but it's gutting to be so close, yet so far away. It'll be interesting to see where he heads now. There's more to come.

Ivory Lace was poor and never got into it. I thought she should of been switched out earlier, as when she was moved out to run on, the race was long over. No real excuses though and it was just a very poor selection. I really thought she was up to winning this but it proved impossible to get into it from the rear and it paid to be positioned handy, which isn't her style at all. I'll be on again though, especially if it's in a smaller field and if she's given some leeway by the handicapper. She'll win eventually, though it'll probably be when I'm not on.

-10pts on a very poor day.

Apologies.

x PyRo

2:25 Ascot - Burren Legend - 2pts @ 10/1 (VC)

Fairly competitive contest here but I think that Richard Rowe's charge could prove to be a big price if he can string everything together. He's 10 years old now but ran a good 3rd last time out, when coming within 6 lengths of Sandown specialist Eric's Charm over 3m 1f, putting in a performance not too far of his career best. That was his first completion for 4 runs, but previous to that he looked to be going the right way over fences, winning off a mark of 120 and coming 2nd under a 7lb penalty next time out. However, Burren Legend found the following 3 runs at Listed level too much, as he unseated his rider once and pulled up twice but returned to form 2 weeks ago on the back of a 3 month break. He's quickly turned out again but has no problems running without much of a break and could well strip fitter for that run last time out. Conditions are no problem, the trip is ideal and the possible early pace being strong should play into his hands, as it has done in the past. He's a suspect jumper at times but gave more cause for hope last time out and if he managed to put it all together here, then I'm sure he'll be involved in the finish once again. The yard are in good form and this is 1 of only 2 rides for Andrew Thornton, who has decent stats at the track, as does the trainer. Thornton partnered Burren Legend last twice and seemed to get a good tune out of him lto, with a similar effort potentially enough to get involved here. 10/1 looks a very nice price and I think he can bounce back to winning ways if his jumping can hold up. He runs off a nice low weight, has conditions more suitable and should have the race run to suit. Small/medium stakes at a price that I consider to be quite wrong, although it could drift based on the number of early movements for some of the opposition.

x PyRo

3:35 Ascot - Like Minded - 3pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Tough contest to solve but I think Paul Nicholls' Like Minded shaped very well last time out, on the back of over a year off the track. It was a highly competitive 19 runner race over 2m 5f at Kempton, in which he showed up well for a long time before seeming to be in need of the run. He runs here off the same mark but has a first time tongue tie applied, which if having the desired effect, should certainly help to see this lightly raced 7 year old in a better light. He's clearly had his problems, having picked up a leg injury in December 09, after chasing home Alan King's Manyriverstocross in a Grade 2 contest at Sandown. He's only had 5 career starts, 3 over hurdles, so he's open to a significant amount of improvement and looks potentially well handicapped, especially given his powerful connections ability to irk out that extra improvement needed. Nicholls landed this contest last year with a similarly lightly raced type and I'm quite keen on his chances of doing it again. It often pays to carry little weight here and Like Minded will only carry 10st 6lbs, which is bound to come in handy. The ground should pose no problems, as that Grade 2 second was over further on very testing ground and if anything, he should be better suited by todays conditions. Nick Scholfield takes the reins today and he's more than capable of getting a good tune out of this fellow. He has a good strike rate over hurdles for this trainer and will hopefully add to that here. They should blast off in front, with the likes of Lough Derg in the field and I think that'll be in my selections favour, assuming he comes on for his recent reappearance. He has a lot of ability and a lot more to come, so I think the current price tag of 7/1 is very tempting indeed. I'm playing medium stakes on him and I should get a very good run for my money at the very least.

x PyRo

3:20 Haydock - Carruthers - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

I'm really looking forward to this race and it could be a cracker. It's tough to call but I feel that Carruthers is in with a massive shout now that he's 8lbs lower than his decent 6th place in the Hennessy over 3m 2f at Newbury. He's ideally suited to a slog in the mud and his form on 'Heavy' going reads 1-1-1, although not in races of this quality but they ended in 13l, 54l and 23l victories, which is very impressive. He has run well at Grade 1 level on a number of occasions and I think a big handicap win is within his grasp if he jumps around safely. The Haydock track is ideal for him, as he jumps left and he could prove very dangerous if left alone in front, which is very possible here. He usually jumps well but is prone to the odd howler, so he'll have to put in a good round of jumping to win but it's definitely in the locker if on a going day. The Mark Bradstock yard seem in good knick since the turn of the year, albeit from their limited number of runners but I expect Carruthers will be spot on here to attempt to win the £42k pot. They rarely ever come to this track and 330 mile round trip to do so, plus it's their only runner at the track, so I hope it's not all in vein. Matt O'Connor takes the ride, but I know very little about him. However, he takes off a handy 5lbs and has an OK 8% strike rate over fences. I think that the horse should be clear favourite, as one firm have him (4/1) and he's worthy of medium sized stakes.

Last years winner, Silver By Nature also interests me, so I'll have a 1pt saver @ 10/1 (Ladbrokes). He's also been given a chance by the handicapper and will love the conditions. He's 6lbs higher than winning this last year but that was a 15 length demolition job and a replication of that run would see him get very competitive. He also looks quite overpriced and could give my main selection the most to be worried about.

x PyRo

4:00 Lingfield - Flipando - 2pts @ 9/1 (WillHill)

I'm pinning my hopes on a good gallop here, which will give David Barron's lively 10 year old a massive chance here. Flipando comes here on the back of a few months off, but he has went well fresh in the past and the recent form of his yard gives cause for optimism. This is The Barron's only runner of the day, at a track where he does reasonably well, with 11% of his runners winning. Interestingly, Graham Gibbons, who often rides for this yard, has only mounted 2 of his runners at this track, resulting in a win and a 3rd place. Gibbons doesn't come to Lingfield too often, but has won on board 4 of his last 10 rides here and is a very capable jockey on the All-Weather. He has also ridden this fellow to victory before, when he scooted home by 5 lengths at Wolverhampton this time last year, having went off as a 25/1 shot. Flipando is 3lbs higher here but arguably well handicapped on his best form and has ran a few good races here, without winning but seems to handle conditions. If David Evans' Star Rover could get over from stall 11 to set the pace, then it'd be run perfectly for my selection, who likes to drop out early on the back of a strong pace before running on with his typically menacing late charge. He will need a good pace to get involved at this trip but he did come a good 3rd over C&D when last seen, on the back of what was an ordinary gallop, so it's plausible that he could well get involved if the pace is decent and not very fast, but the latter would increase his chances tenfold. There's a few good animals in this race, but the favourite is much too short and Flipando looks like a monster price at 9/1. It's shorter with all other firms and I'd expect that to fall even more, as he shouldn't be this big. Gibbons is coming down for only one ride too, which could signal intention and return dividends. Small/medium bet, which would be larger if the pace was assured.