PyRo's Horse Bets.

UrbanSea

Liking the look of it myself.

x PyRo

Hopefully they'll fly out of the stalls! Think he has a good chance myself but is really pace dependent.

Reasoning for these to follow in the morning. Awful tired at the moment.

5:10 Lingfield - Elna Bright - 2pts @ 11/1 (VC) & Red Somerset - 1pt @ 10/1 (WillHill)


Total Staked - 14pts

x PyRo

Burren Legend was doing alright for a long way but got outclassed readily in the end. He finished well back in 5th place but if he's dropped in class, he'll be of interest again.

Carruthers ran a cracker in the National trial, showing up wonderfully from the front for a long time, before fading in the end. He was well supported after Pricewise put him up and went off as a 7/2 shot. It was too much of a test for him but his jumping was sublime and he'll grab a big one sometime. My saver, Silver By Nature, absolutely bolted in. Scoring by 15 lengths under top weight in what was a wonderful performance. Thank God for the saver, as the 1pt @ 10/1 saved the day from being a complete disaster.

Like Minded ran well in the testing conditions at Ascot and looked a likely winner at one stage. However, he didn't hurdle well enough and looked one paced once he made a move to get into contention. He does look well handicapped though and is bound to land a decent contest some day, so it'll be interesting to see where he goes now. The winner, Act Of Kalanisi, appreciated the big drop in class and despite his trainers concerns about the ground, he ran brilliantly, despite a couple of mistakes. I backed him before but couldn't of had him on the ground.

Flipando ran a cracker as the pace was very slow, so he done exceptionally well to get within 1.25 lengths of the winner. He finished in 4th place and I reckon he'd of won with a good pace. He's got a decent race in him yet, despite being 10 years old now.

Elna Bright and Red Somerset disappointed as the pace was very slow and it turned into a sprint. That form is worthless and I'll back both again if pace is assured.

-3pts on the day, with my 10/1 saver being a God send. It could of been a disaster!

x PyRo

Reasoning later on this one..

3:55 Kempton - Hereford Boy - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

x PyRo

Went out for a few pints last night, so I didn't get back to post my reasons.

Anyways, Hereford Boy couldn't pick up at all on the back of a rapid gallop and ended up being eased down (as good as pulled up!) when all was lost. Poor.

Big Bay ended up winning it and I've backed him on his last 3 starts, but not today. Typical.

-2pts on the day.

x PyRo

Short write up, getting tired!

6:00 Wolverhampton - Mount Hollow - 3pts @ 9/2 (WillHill)

Trappy enough contest here but the French import looks likely to run a big race here. He's had 3 runs for his new yard, 4th first time up and 2nd last twice. Mount Hollow is going up in the weights despite not winning but a mark of 65 still looks very lenient and the return to 7f combined with the track running as standard (ran slow on opening 2 starts) will see him go one better I hope. He won a few decent races out in France and it certainly wouldn't take a career best to land the spoils here. The race should be run to suit and the booking of Luke Morris (on LTO too) looks a plus. The form of Mount Hollow's last 2 runs are working out well and I think he should be the clear favourite here. Medium stakes at a price that I think could shorten considerably. Gordy Bee and Piccolo Express rate as the main dangers but I fancy Reg Hollinshead's charge to do the business at the 4th time of asking.

x PyRo

Mount Hollow was well supported once again but got no luck in running throughout and was also hampered in the run in, although it made no difference as he was already beaten. I still think he's worth pursuing with for a little while. He definitely has enough ability to land a similar contest soon.

-3pts on the day. Bank et all will be sorted in a couple of days.

ValueSeeker

Keep it up mate, just remember that in long odds betting it's normal(probability wise) to have long long periods of nothing so in a phase like that just stick to the plan (don't raise your stakes or anything). You'll see then that the big wins can and (in your case from what I've seen) probably will come like buses and produce nice longterm profit.

For example, in golf betting last season I was -40 pts or so over the first couple of months. By October I was almost 400pts to the good and then lost another 100pts or so in a last completely dry last 2 months of the season.

This season again I was almost -50pts until last week where I got most of that back and 1 or 2 good weeks now and I'll be well in the profit zone again. It's normal and planned for with regards to bankroll management.

x PyRo

Cheers VS, I'm confident everything will come back once my beloved flat racing returns! This NH/AW stuff doesn't get my juices flowing at all but that's probably because most of my selections tail off! I'll keep at it in the hope that it'll change soon, in time for a Cheltenham spree!

3:40 Doncaster - Il Duce - 2pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)

Alan King trained 11 year old who isn't in great form of late but warrants a lot of respect of such a lowly mark. He's put in many a good performance at Graded level over the years without managing to gain victory. However, he's now running in a handicap off a mark of 121, 28lbs below his highest rating, achieved a few years ago. Il Duce has been lightly raced since his last racecourse win, which was in '07, and he has only raced 11 times in the following 3 and a half years. He seems to be over his problems, having had 3 runs since October and there could still be life in the old dog yet, especially in contests like this. His 3 runs on the back of 11 months out haven't been inspiring by any means, but the 16lbs he has been dropped by the handicapper in that time is a big help, along with the trip, conditions and track that he's now going to. His yard are in decent knick and he's partnered today by Choc Thornton, for the first time since returning to racing. Thornton was the man who guided Il Duce to his last 5 career wins and in the past 5 years, he's been the top jockey around Doncaster, with a 29% strike rate and a decent profit to level stakes. King and Thornton have managed 5 wins from just 13 runners over the Doncaster fences, clearly forming a formidable partnership around here and I think the track is ideal for this horse. The favourite, Wogan, is also ideally suited to here but he'll have a tough enough job lugging around a big weight here and I think he's much too short to get involved with. Dark Ben also has a chance, but he's upped in class and it'll take a career best for him to win here, which could prove beyond his 11 year old legs, although he jumped superbly last time out. I think it could pay to side with Alan King's Il Duce, who's a class act on his day and could have won more win in his, especially at this level. Small/medium bet at 7/1, which is a fair bit larger than the 9/2 I deemed acceptable.

x PyRo

4:10 Doncaster - Ackertac - 3pts @ 12/1 (PaddyPower)

Ran extremely poor in a hot contest at Kempton last time out, which is the main reason for his price, but I still think there's a great chance he could land a race of his mark of 127. Ackertac is only 6 years old, lightly raced and still open to more progression, plus the flat galloping nature of Doncaster should play right into his hands, assuming he's tuned up to land the spoils. He's trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies, who wasn't in great form at the beginning of the year but his runners seem to be coming into themselves of late and I'm hoping that's the case with this fellow. He's only had 10 career starts, 8 of which have come over hurdles and he opened his account in ready fashion back in September, on what was his first run for 6 months. The official winning margin was 10 lengths, in a poor race, but he was heavily eased in the final 100 yards, having scooted 25 lengths clear. He then followed up next time out, in another poor race but one with slightly better opposition. It was reported that he had significantly strengthened up during the summer and definitely looked to be going places. Ackertac's next start was at Cheltenham over 3m 2f, where he was upped to Listed class. He was sent off a 9/2 joint favourite with none other than Cross Kenyon, recently an impressive winner of a Grade 2 slog at Haydock. However, my selection found the trip too much having been bang in contention 2 out, before fading into an 11 length 5th place. Not a bad effort considering. He was brought down when still going very well in another tough contest, which was won by Lush Life. He's clearly a horse of great ability and now that he's running in a class 3 handicap, with ideal conditions underfoot, I think he holds massive claims, assuming he's out to try. I'm not sure how he's not shorter for this contest, as I thought he'd be worthy of being around the 7/1 mark, not the current 12/1 that's available. I expect that to shorten and I've had a medium sized bet at a price which is too good to turn down. There's a fair few others in with good chances, but the Twiston-Davies animal is the best value, the best handicapped and possibly the best horse in the race when tuned up. He'll make his presence felt, I hope.

x PyRo

8:05 Kempton - Ongoodform - 2pts @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Doesn't exactly live up to his name but I think things should be ideally run to suit here, and if he can run to his name, he'll be there or thereabouts. Ongoodform ran in some very decent contests during his 3 year old campaign in 2010, but failed to win any. However, he's dropped to a potentially attractive mark of 79, handles conditions and should be suited by the drop to 6f, having pulled hard last time out over 7f. That run was 3 weeks ago, but came on the back of a 6 month lay off and he's surely entitled to come on for the run. His All-Weather form at this trip reads ; 3-2, and it'll hopefully be followed by a "1", which would be his second in 16 runs. He often takes a very good pull early on, so the drop in trip is bound to suit assuming they go quick enough from the front. He's not well drawn in stall 3, but that may force hold up tactics, something which I believe would suit him if he's on one of his good days, when he often travels with lots of menace. Paul D'Arcy trains Ongoodform, and his yard are certainly in good form, with lots of winners since the turn of the year and many others performing well. This is his only runner of the day, although his record at this track is uninspiring. Liam Jones takes the reins, like he did last time out, and he's a very capable jockey in my opinion. The 20/1 available here is much too big and I marked him up as a 12/1 shot, with claims of being shorter. The favourite, Clear Praise, is clearly on an upward curve but may well prove vulnerable under a 6lb penalty, and doesn't tickle my fancy at 7/4. There's a few others with claims at decent prices but Paul D'Arcy's charge strikes me as one who's severely overpriced and holds a good chance if both the drop in trip and race fitness work as expected.

ValueSeeker

Little tip for Cheltenham for yourself and anyone interested:

I know sweet FA about the horses yet I've make good profit on Cheltenham every year by watching the market movers.

Here's my simple strategy:

The night before the race I take screenshots of the odds on oddchecker for each race. I target horses from 20/1 - 12/1.

Then the next day about 15 mins before each race begins I re check the odds on those horses highlighting the ones with a 4 notch or more move in odds (cut). EG: A horse that was 16 moving into 12 or 11/1 or something. Maybe a little less in the case of horses that were at 12's.

I back the horse with the most significant (IMO) move E/W as you can be pretty sure a lot of the smart money from those really in the know has gone on it.

Generally, you'll break about evens from the place returns and any winners will have you firmly in the profit zone.

x PyRo

Best of luck with that VS. Following any market moves ain't my thing though, plus Cheltenham would be the worst place to do it, considering the majority of animals will actually be trying.

Early selection for tomorrow, and it's one who owes me a fortune.

4:20 Southwell - Where's Reiley - 3pts @ 10/3 (WillHill)

Reasoning to follow.

x PyRo

Price falling now. 9/4 with Hills.

4:20 Southwell - Where's Reiley - 3pts @ 10/3 (WillHill)

Previous selection on numerous occasions and I'm yet to get a win out of him, so hopefully that'll change here. He's a speedy type, who finishes off his races very well, so I'm hoping the step up to 6 furlongs will see him in a better light, which it should. Where's Reiley is a 4 time course winner, all coming over the minimum trip but he has form over 6 and is most definitely well handicapped off a mark of 68, which is 6lbs lower than his last win. That win came in March of last year, when beating a decent field by 3 lengths and he looked sure to go on to bigger and better things. However, he ran poorly more often than not over the coming months but showed up well last twice, finishing an ever diminishing 1.75 length 5th place on his penultimate start, before finishing a length 2nd to Bookiesindex Boy, a horse who can be brilliant, or atrocious. The fact that David Barron now sees fit to step his lively 5 year old up to 6 furlongs for the first time at Southwell for a long time speaks volumes, and his recent efforts in the finish suggest it'll prove no bad thing, if they go off quick enough from the front. There's lots of pace here, which should set it up for a closer and I think that it'll be perfect for Where's Reiley. He's running himself into form, well handicapped and has ideal conditions today. Lee Newman, former champion apprentice, takes the ride for the first time on this fellow. He's picking up a few rides for Barron now and is producing good results, so hopefully he'll be a plus to this animal. The 10/3 available is starting to diminish now, and I'd expect he'll be going off under 2/1, which would be a fair reflection of his chances. I think he'll take a lot of beating here, with Takajan the main danger but not too attractively priced. Medium sized stakes, which would cover what I've lost on him on his last few run. Fingers crossed!

x PyRo

Il Duce was poor and is now worth leaving alone I'd say. Although I'll probably get tempted again sometime. He made a few costly errors and just doesn't look anything near the force of old. Poor effort.

Ackertac was well supported, extremely well in fact, having moved into 11/2 from 12/1 early doors but he was collared at the final flight by a big price outsider from the Jonjo O'Neill stable. It was a very good run though and he has a big one in him off this sort of mark, so I'll be on again, price dependent.

Ongoodform was friendless in the market, which isn't a good sign with his stable and he ran accordingly. He'll probably get dropped another couple of lbs and I still think there's a decent handicap in him yet. I'll be on again if there's any sign of money for him.

-7pts on the day.

x PyRo

4:50 Southwell - Convince - 2pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)

10 year old who's truly in his twilight years, but he's bound to be ready to strike now that he's getting his ideal conditions for the first time in a while. He ran well enough last twice, finishing with plenty of intent, but finding the 6 furlong trip too sharp. Convince is now stepped up to 7 furlongs, which shapes as his best trip nowadays, and his last career win was here over C&D, off this mark. All roads point to Kevin Prendergast's lively 10 year old getting involved here, and the likely strong pace only strengthens his case. He's also down to his last winning handicap mark of 55, with Andrew Heffernan on board to take off a further 3lbs, which leaves this animal looking mightily well handicapped, especially with a very talented claimer on board. The Heffernan/Predergast combination are 1 from 3 at Southwell, and 2 from 6 overall, so he looks like a positive booking for this yard. The yard don't have too many runners around here, with only 10 lining out for them, returning with 2 winners, which isn't bad. They only send out 2 runners today, and this is the one that I'd consider to have the greatest chances, with the other being a virtual no hoper. They're sure to have Convince spot on, especially on the back of his 2 recent runs, which came after a 4 month break, so he's entitled to come on for them. I think everything points to a big run from the old-timer and he should be getting involved at the business end of affairs, before hopefully running on for his first win in 10 attempted. He's likely to be around the 8/1 mark, which is a more than fair price, and although there's plenty of potential winners in the field, he strikes me as the type who's not too far away from getting another win. Small/medium stakes, at a price that'll be taken in the morning.

x PyRo

5:40 Kempton - Novastasia - 2pts @ 14/1 (Bet365)

20 race maiden who doesn't have inspiring form figures, but both her career runs in class 7 handicaps have resulted in 2 decent 4th place finishes, less that 1.5 lengths away. Novastasia handles conditions without problem, seems to have little bother with the track and is now wearing her reapplied blinkers that were replaced last time out, which didn't suit. She also raced too handily throughout and with slightly more reserved tactics today, it should see her in a much better light. Sam Hitchcott takes the ride, and he's a jockey I've a lot of time for. He's taken the reins on this 5 year old on her last 5 starts and will hopefully be able to get a bit more out of her in the finish. It's a very poor class 7 race, and she's running off a mark of 45, 18lbs lower than her opening mark when trained by Walter Swinburn. She's obviously not one of much ability but nor are the opposition here and with a plum sit in stall 12, she may have a chance of getting involved. Dean Ivory is her trainer, and he does well at Kempton, with an 11% strike rate and a decent profit to level stakes. Novastasia doesn't look an easy horse to win with, but I believe there's some ability there and I'm hoping they go quick (not too quick!) early enough, as she seems to get caught for toe quite easily in the final stages, before picking up again. She made encouraging headway on 2 of her last 3 starts but didn't quite get going until the race was lost, and if she could avoid that, then a race of this nature is definitely not beyond her. She's likely to be around the 25/1 mark, which is a massive price in my book, as I had her down as a 10/1 shot, despite her obvious limitations. I fancy the drop in grade combined with the return of blinkers to perk her up and hopefully she'll get involved, as she's going to be vastly overpriced. Small/medium bet at a price that'll be taken in the morning.

x PyRo

7:40 Kempton - Rapid Water - 2pts @ 25/1 (PaddyPower)

Not at best last twice but reapplied blinkers seemed to have an adverse effect and he didn't run his race at all. Previous to those runs, he made a relatively encouraging 2nd appearance for the Jane Chapple-Hyam yard, when finishing within 2.75 lengths of Anne Of Kiev, who's in the form of her life and has won since. Rapid Water could only manage 6th place that day, but ran on well alongside the Lingfield rail and put in the best of his 4 runs for his new yard. He was slowly away that day, and also last twice, which seems to be commonplace with him nowadays, but with a quicker get away on the back of what should be a good gallop, I think we'll see him in a much better light. He's relatively lightly race for a 5 year old, had a good 3 year old campaign and a decent 4 year old campaign, but looks as if he's regressing now. However, I still think the ability is there and he's now looking very well handicapped off a mark of 67, 5lbs below his last winning mark and 13lbs below a mark which he has been very competitive off. He's much better going right handed if his last 4 efforts are anything to go by, so I'm hoping the return to a right handed track will help, along with the long straight at Kempton, which should be in his favour. The only thing I'm worried about is the extra distance, which he's unproven over but has shaped like it'd suit if they went quick enough. The yard are in decent form, so I'll take my chances. They also have a fine record at this track and the booking of Martin Lane is very interesting, as he's never rode out for them before. Rapid Water should be around the 20/1 mark, which will be vastly overstating his chances. It looks a very winnable contest and I'm playing small/medium stakes once again.

Price to follow in the morning.

x PyRo

Where's Reiley continues to frustrate, finishing 2nd yet again. He done his customary thing of getting outpaced before staying on but the winner had flown and the race was over. He's still attractively handicapped and will eventually repay my faith, but only God knows when!

Convince ran a cracker in a race where it paid to be handy. He was one of the only hold up horses to get involved but he, like my previous selection, could only manage 2nd. He was also outpaced early on and has to be shoved along, but he stayed on well to finish with a late rattle, but to no avail. Despite being an old-timer at this stage, he's still up to landing a similar contest if he gets a bit of luck. Encouraging performance but not the result I needed.

Novastasia was sent off as a 20/1 shot and ran a decent race to finish 5th. She was under pressure a long way from home but ran on well near the end. Possibly a step up to a mile around Kempton would be suitable and she's definitely up to winning one of these awful contests if things fell her way. However, not the result I wanted and she never really looked like winning.

Rapid Water also finished in 5th place, having been deemed a 33/1 shot before the off. He ran his best race in a while and broke well for a change. The trip probably stretches him but it was a much better performance in defeat and I'll be on again next time he runs around Kempton, if he gets a good draw.

-9pts on the day, and this rot won't stop. However, the crossbar can only be smashed so many times before a few eventually go in and I'll keep going. Roll on the flat though, can't handle any more of this tedious AW/NH stuff. Just not my thing.

x PyRo

4:00 Sandown - Manele Bay - 2pts @ 14/1 (VC)

Lightly raced Mare who has only seen a racecourse on 8 occasions, 6 of those being over hurdles. She's held in decent regard by connections and has obviously had her problems, but she shaped encouragingly last time out, when returning from a 2.5 month break. Manele Bay finished 3rd of 14 in a decent contest at Leicester. The ground was shocking that day and was described as "heavy", which forced her jockey to race on the outside throughout in the search for better ground. That obviously wasn't in her favour, as she was giving ground away throughout and if it wasn't for some poor jumping at the final few flights, she'd of went quite close. However, it was judged to be equal to her career best run, when scoring on similar ground at Fontwell, and I believe she has a race of a similar nature within her abilities. She runs here off a mark of 110, which looks well within her capabilities and she'll be partnered by Andrew Thornton, the man who was on board her for the first time last time out. He has a decent 12% strike rate over hurdles at Sandown and seems to be picking up a few rides for Richard Rowe nowadays, with a couple of winners last month. He's a very capable jockey and should definitely be a plus to this Mare, who looks a little awkward at times. Manele Bay should handle todays ground with ease, as it's currently soft and she should appreciate that. This 2m 4f trip is probably her optimum on ground like this and I expect the galloping and testing Sandown track to be right down her street. Her trainer, Richard Rowe, seems to have his string in decent order since the turn of the year and he comes here with only 2 runners, the other being a virtual no hoper. Hopefully he'll be adding to his recent winners here and I think he can, assuming she comes on from that run last time out and jumps a little bit better. She clearly has ability and more to offer, so the 14/1 price tag looks much too big to me. I marked her down as a fair 8/1 shot, with possible claims for having her even shorter. There's many dangers here, with both of Alan King's having chances and also a Nick Williams runner, but I think that Manele Bay is in with a lively chance of coming in at a nice price and she's worthy of small/medium stakes.

x PyRo

4:35 Sandown - Antonius Caesar - 2pts @ 13/2 (VC)

Plenty of negatives to be had about this fellow, but the same goes for the majority of the field. He has never strung back-to-back wins together but this looks like an ideal opportunity to do so, assuming he runs like he did last time out. Antonius Caesar won quite comfortably at Leicester, winning by 4.5 lengths under the capable hands of young 7lb claimer, Peter Carberry. He's on again here and is sure to be a plus, especially with the way he's been riding of late, making his 7lb claim invaluable. Carberry gave a very good front running ride on this moody 8 year old and it's quite possible he could get to lead here once again, making him a lively contender. He usually jumps well, travels well and loves the conditions, so I really expect a big performance here, even though it's a tricky contest (hence the stake). Antonius Caesar has run at Sandown on 2 occasions, both over this extended 3 mile trip and both times he ended up finishing in 3rd place. However, he's 1lb lower than the most recent run and a full stone below the first run, and has softer ground which is more to his liking. He traded at 1/3 in running on his most recent appearance here, but due to early exertions trying to fend off another front running competitor, he had absolutely nothing left in the tank when it came to the run in, eventually finishing a 12 length 3rd in a similar contest to this. His yard are in good form, his jockey is very talented and the conditions are to his liking. I can't see how he'll not be involved in the finish and I think he should be vying for favouritism, rather than being priced at the current 13/2 price that he is. Of the rest, Moleskin is lightly raced and has promise over fences, but he's a bit too short for my liking. The Nick Williams trained Diamond Brook is also much too short, mainly as I don't think he'll see out the trip in these conditions. There's a few others in with chances but a lot of them have patchy profiles and I'd rather stick with Alex Hales' runner, who ran his best race in a long time last time out and could potentially have more to give off a mark like this. He's a 5/1 shot in my book, but I'm only playing small/medium stakes as a fair few of the opposition could have more to give. Hopefully he'll get the lead and jump them into submission.

almat1981

Yo xpyro I had 2 months of bad results so have been on a break for the last couple , I know you got the skill's for me to piggy back on ,you will come good soon .I have been saving what Is left of my bank for cheltham . Keep the faith bro , if it's any consliation you are the best flat racing person I have ever seen. .sorry for the rant , I've not been on for a while and from what I read you needed a big up for those who have not been following you for the lenth of time I have , ( not ment to be a boast ) you always over a quarter turned a profit . Please keep em coming even if your not backing them . ( but as always state if you are or nor )

x PyRo

Cheers mate, really appreciate it.

Can't wait for the flat to return and I probably should quit until then but I quite enjoy just analyzing & playing a few bets every day, even though it's losing me money at the moment. I'll always back anything I put up here too. Not working out at the moment but the only way to improve is to try and figure out where I'm going wrong, which I still don't know. Probably just not cut out for this time of year and I do find it much, much easier to solve a flat race.

I might sit back after Saturday and just concentrate on Cheltenham. I done alright there last year when I didn't know too much, so hopefully I could do better this year. Funnily enough my record in the better NH races isn't too bad. It's the poorer quality stuff that's killing my bank, but I'll get it all back during the flat I hope.

The good times will roll mate, just not for another while I'd say.

Thanks again.

x PyRo

Manele Bay tried to make the running and looked well beaten turning for home. However, she plugged on to finish 5th in the end, which looked a highly unlikely finishing position at one stage. She'd be an interesting one upped in trip I reckon. She went off 15/2 also, so was obviously fancied by someone but she was just not good enough today.

Antonius Caesar also finished 5th. He tried to make all again but was taken on throughout. Showed a better attitude than usual and didn't cave too easily but in the end, not getting a handy lead cost him. He was well backed to go off the 9/2 co-favourite but the market was about all I got right.

-4pts on the day. My last four bets have come 5th.

Early one for tomorrow.

3:00 Kempton - Hey Big Spender - 3pts @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Reasoning to follow.

UrbanSea

I was looking at him myself. Nice race. Best of luck buddy.

x PyRo

3:00 Kempton - Hey Big Spender - 3pts @ 14/1 (Bet365)

I'm quite the fan of this fellow abilities and he has a great chance here in my opinion, a far greater chance than his odds suggest. This is a tough Grade 3 contest and although he's never won at this level, he has more than enough ability to suggest he'll hold his own in this company. Hey Big Spender will have to shoulder 11st 11lbs, but it's no problem to him as he's a big strapping horse who's built to carry these weights. The majority of his wins have come when carrying lots of weight against inferior rivals and most of these are inferior to him if he produces his "A" game. Horses carrying a fair bit of weight also have good records in this race and he fits many more of the trends, most of them actually, with the only thing against him is that he has never won/placed at Listed & Graded level. However, there has been exceptions to the rule and he was in the process of running a cracker at Listed level, when sent off as an 8/1 shot in the Jewson Novices' Chase at the Cheltenham festival last year. He unseated his rider at the 13th, despite still traveling quite well on the back of a mistake at the previous fence. When he unseated, he was sitting nicely in 2nd place and assuming he finished the race, I expect that he'd of placed.

Despite having fell on 2 of his 10 chase starts, Hey Big Spender is quite a good jumper when on song (can throw in the odd howler). So if he can get into a rhythm around here, I think he'll be involved at the business end, as the race is likely to be run to suit. He stepped up on all previous form when landing a class 2 handicap at Warwick last time out. He ran a career best to defy top weight against some decent animals. That was over 2m 5f on GS ground, in which he was slightly outpaced early on but traveled like the best horse and won in a decisive fashion. The only thing that worries me is his ability to handle Kempton, which is an unknown, although he's perfectly suited to galloping tracks. He seems to have enough speed to get competitive, he stays the trip and jumps well enough to suggest he'll handle the relatively tough fences here. How it'll hold up on the back of a solid gallop is a worry but he stays well and avoiding any mistakes will be crucial to his chances. If Joe Tizzard can get him settled in behind the pace (often takes a pull) and has him jumping well, it'll be hard to find anything staying on as well as him on the ground which is likely to be ideal, although more rain wouldn't be much harm. The likely fast pace is perfect for him (in terms of settling him) and if he's switched off early, he has a wonderful chance of producing another career best performance. I'm not too sure how he's marked up as a 14/1 chance, as he fits the bill as a potential winner of this race. He's 8 years old, won LTO, produced a career best RPR last time out, stays the trip, and many more. I marked him down as an 8/1 shot and I think he has a great chance of running a cracker here, assuming his jumping holds up, despite being usually good, it's still a worry. His yard are in decent form and do well with runners at Kempton, with 6 wins from 36 runners, giving them an impressive 17% strike rate and a 112% ROI here. Hopefully they'll be adding to those records with a victory here. Of the remainder, Bakbenscher and Fistral Beach may give my selection most to think about but I'm playing medium stakes on Colin Tizzard's charge.

x PyRo

2:10 Lingfield - Nubar Boy - 2pts @ 11/1 (VC)

He'll need some luck in running but this speedy 4 year old has the ability to go close here for the David Evans/Jamie Spencer combination. Nubar Boy is a hard one to win with, as his 2 wins & 31 start record would suggest. However, he's running well of late and has made eye catching headway on 2 of his last 3 runs, suggesting a win may not be too far away if he gets the breaks. He has form to overturn with a few of these but he's 5lbs better off with Qadar for a 1.5 length defeat last time out, when coming with a late charge to come a respectable 3rd. There seems to be plenty of pressers in the field, with Waabel the most likely front runner, assuming he can get over from his wide draw. Rio Royal is another one who could force the pace, and he's much better drawn in stall 4, so if he does, I'm hopeful that they'll go a decent pace up front and set it up for a fast finisher, preferably my selection! The booking of Jamie Spencer is interesting and he was on board last time out also, producing a late run as usual, but to no avail. Spencer's always a bit of a hit and miss character whenever I back him, but on his day he's a top notch jockey. I always like jockeys having experience on their mounts and Spencer should know more about this quirky animal after having his first run on him last time out. Spencer has a fine 15% strike rate for David Evans and a 20% SR around Lingfield, which is impressive. Evans' yard are in good knick of late and although he has 2 runners in this race, I'd imagine that Nubar Boy is the first choice. He's potentially well handicapped, highly suited to C&D and has a top jockey on board. I think 11/1 is overstating his chances and I marked him down as a 15/2 shot. He's an awkward horse but one with decent ability on his day, so if everything fell right in running, he'll be sure to have a chance. Small/medium stakes.

x PyRo

3:10 Lingfield - Five Star Junior - 2pts @ 14/1 (VC)

Has plenty to find with some of these in comparison to what he'd carry if this was a handicap but there was a lot to like about his performance last time out and he looks to be overpriced. Five Star Junior produced what was a career best performance when finishing a comfortable 3/4 length winner in a class 3 handicap last time out. He showed an impressive turn of foot to get up near the line but the race wasn't run to suit, with the likely stronger pace here suiting him significantly more. There's a fair chance they could blast off in front here with the likes of Waveband and Duff taking their place. That's exactly what my selection needs to utilize his turn of foot and despite being "wrong" at the weights with numerous runners, he may still have enough to get very competitive if things pan out his way. James Sullivan takes the ride, like he has done on the last 4 starts this fellow has had, resulting in form reading; 3-3-2-1. He's a very good jockey in my opinion and although he made a mistake on this fellow on his penultimate start, he seems to get on quite well with him. Sullivan has a good 14% strike rate when teaming up with Linda Stubbs, and her yard are in good form of late. This is the yards only runner of the day and the jockeys only ride, so hopefully they make it count. Five Star Junior is a 3 time C&D winner and is clearly in good heart of late, so the current 14/1 looks a tad generous to me, even though he'll need to step up once again. With some luck in running, he'll be there or thereabouts and is worth small/medium stakes in the hope that he'll get his head in-front again.

I'm having another small bet on ; Elna Bright - 1pt @ 22/1 (WillHill). He's another one who has lots to find at the weight but he had a promising run over a mile here last week and may just need the drop in trip. It's a fair drop down to 6 furlongs but his last win came over this trip and he'll be highly suited by the (hopeful) speed up front. I've backed him too often to let him go unbacked here and he's worth a minimum stakes bet in the hope that he causes a shock. First time visor is also interesting, although it will take a career best to land the spoils. Hopefully it has an extremely good effect!

hawaii501

Backed Hey Big Spender yesterday so hoping he can run to his ability well over-priced in my opinion. I think Razor royale is a danger

x PyRo

Nubar Boy was very poor and never picked up. Seemed to be swept off his feet turning for home but wasn't going to land a blow. Typically David Evans' other runner ended up winning.

Hey Big Spender ran a decent 4th place in the end. He jumped poorly at the first and was slightly hampered, which didn't help. Hold up tactics on the back of such a good gallop didn't really help and he was quite sketchy over a few jumps. Still a decent run though and I think there's a big one in him someday.

Five Star Junior was well beaten but seemed to be traveling well going for home. However, they went slow enough up front which I didn't think would happen nor did it help his chances and he just couldn't pick up. Elna Bright was staying on late but really needed a good gallop if he was going to get into it. A former selection of mine won it and it was a runner from my favourite yard too. Can't get anything right!

-8pts on the day.

Bank - 241.63pts (+141.63pts)

Only a couple of weeks until Cheltenham and then only a few weeks until the flat racing. I'll have a new thread for the flat, with a few new things that I'm planning to try out. Can't wait.