PyRo's Horse Bets.

UrbanSea

Pyro should the bank not be 341.63 with a profit of 241.63?

x PyRo

No. :pac:

UrbanSea

But you've included 100 points balance usually haven't you?

x PyRo

Ah, get ya now. Fixed'd.

UrbanSea

Is your profit not 241 but total bank 341?

x PyRo

Nope.

Wish it was.

UrbanSea

Ah chin up.
Looking forward to the new season.

x PyRo

Damn right, can't wait for it. Really looking forward to Cheltenham though. A change of fortune could be on the cards!

Only one bet tomorrow.

3:10 Fontwell - Skipper's Lad - 2pts @ 20/1 (VC)

Poor recent efforts but is finally given some leeway by the handicapper, who deems fit to drop him 8lbs for his recent poor effort over 3m 2f at Wincanton. However, he paid dearly for trying to keep up with a suicidal pace and ended up pulling up 2 out when in with no chance. Skipper's Lad is now dropped back in trip on ground that should suit and returns to a track where he has run relatively well before. He's 8lbs below his last winning mark, 11lbs if you include Sam Twiston-Davies' valuable 3lb claim, and I think it should put him back in with a chance here. Another interesting thing is that his usual combination of tongue-tie + blinkers is now reapplied, with the tongue tie being absent last twice. Both his career wins (in Oct '09) were achieved with both of those on board. He's obviously a fairly regressive horse and not one to put much trust in but his yard are in good knick, have a fine record around here and Twiston-Davies is 4 from 14 over fences for the yard. This is his only ride of the day and he'll hopefully make it count. The Tizzard yard also run Rateable Value in this race, and he seems to be the first choice animal but he's too short for me to get involved with, especially after a poor enough run last time out. A few other runners come into the equation but Skipper's Lad looks the best value to me, and at 20/1, he's worth a small bet. He'll either win at a canter, or tail off!

UrbanSea

Seems to be a mini gamble going on with your fella.

x PyRo

Skipper's Lad was well punted, eventually going off 13/2. However, he didn't get home in the ground and finished a modest 4th. His stablemate ended up winning it. There's still a race in this fellow though, probably when the ground's riding a bit quicker, even though he shapes like a horse who should like soft ground.

-2pts on the day.

2:30 Wolverhampton - Absa Lutte - 3pts @ 14/1 (VC)

Not in the greatest of form last twice but should have everything to her liking here, with a rapid gallop potentially on the cards. She's a frustrating type, who has a lot of ability but often throws away her chances by pulling hard early on. I doubt that'll happen here as there's numerous of potential pace setters, none moreso than the inform Island Legend, who showed bright speed to score by a length at Kempton last time out. He's also well drawn to attack here but has a few potential threats to his lead, which could set it up for Absa Lutte if she proves good enough to take advantage. She is a much better animal around Kempton, but she has 1 win and 3 thirds from just 6 runs here, so the track shouldn't be much of an obstacle. Joesph Young takes the reins and also takes off a valuable 7lbs, to leave her carrying 8st 9lbs, which is a handy weight. She's also 5lbs lower than her last winning mark and the jockeys claim takes her well below all 6 of her winning marks. The yard could be in better form but have managed a couple of nice priced winners since the turn of the year and they don't seem to get many winners anyways (4% SR says it all). Absa Lutte is well drawn in stall 4, close to the likely pace and if she can get a good sit in behind the leaders (can be slowly away) I think she has a great chance of taking advantage. She's often left behind at the start but most of her wins have come when tracking the leaders and asserting with her usual authority if she can just get away quicker from her good draw. She's a strong traveling type when the pace is strong enough and I'd be extremely surprised if they don't go off quick enough here. She'll hopefully avoid racing keenly and she'll take over the running just inside the final furlong, before going on to score comfortably. I can dream! She certainly has the ability to do so and is well handicapped, well suited to how this race will pan out and is definitely overpriced at 14/1. I marked her down as a 6/1 shot, which is significantly lower than what she's available at and I think that'll shorten. Medium stakes on this one and I think it could break my poor run if she get away quick enough. Incomparable and Bahamian Lad could give her the most to think about.

x PyRo

2:40 Catterick - The Red Laird - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

This race lacks much strength in depth at all and I fancy Neil King's lightly raced 8 year old to add to his sole hurdle win, achieved on his penultimate start. The Red Laird scored by just over 2 lengths in a conditional jockey's race at Warwick, making all in the process. He was under pressure a fair way from home but stayed on strongly to get the better of his rivals and won a shade cosily, despite hitting the last hurdle having been set up for it all wrong. He has only raced 11 times, 7 of them being over hurdles and 4 in bumpers, one of which was a heavy ground success at Plumpton. He's ideally suited to testing conditions, which should be what he'll get here and the sharp turns and undulations of Catterick will be no problems to him. The Red Laird didn't run well last time out, but his record going right handed isn't very good and the Towcester track has proved to be his downfall on 3 occasions. He's now sent to Catterick by Neil King, which is a 400 mile round trip and the stables only runner at the course. It looks interesting that they send him here and he seems to have found another winnable race, despite being 5lbs higher than his win at Warwick. Giles Hawkins, who was on board for the first time when gaining that win, is back on board today. He's a handy 5lb claimer and this is his only ride of the day, at a track where he has 1 win and 1 third from 3 rides. He doesn't ride too often for this yard so it looks a positive booking, as Alex Merriam who usually takes the ride, is going to Plumpton to for King's other 2 runners. The King yard are in decent order, with a couple of winners in the past few days and I think it's significant that they're coming up to this track, one which they don't visit very often. The opposition, despite having 3 last time out winners, shouldn't be too much to overcome. Many are out of form, inconsistent or potentially handicapped to their abilities and I think that my selection could still have a bit more to give off a mark like this. 8/1 looks too big to me and I'd of thought he'd be closer to the market principles, around the 9/2-5/1 mark. The track is key to his chances, and it should be ideal if he gets to make the running once more, which he should. Those tactics paid dividends on his penultimate start and I'm playing small/medium stakes in the hope that they will again.

argosy2006

http://www.psychologytoday.com/files/u12/Lucky-Charms-cereal.jpg

x PyRo

Absa Lutte was well punted, going off 7/1 in the end. She broke slowly and that was her chances gone. I'll be back on once a more experienced jockey takes the reins again.

The Red Laird was also reasonably supported, going off at 11/2. He hit a flat spot before staying on to finish a relatively close up 4th place. He could still have a race in him off this sort of mark.

-5pts on the day.

3:55 Ffos Las - Ballyegan - 3pts @ 13/2 (PaddyPower)

Lightly raced 6 year old who despite running a couple of decent races over fences, now returns to hurdling off a potentially workable mark. Ballyegan just doesn't jump well enough to win a chase yet but I think he's very interesting on his handicap hurdle bow off a mark of 105. He looks a dour stayer, who's highly suited by testing conditions, which he should get here. There's also 3 likely pace angles, which should make it a true test and it'd suit if they went fairly quick early on, as Bob Buckler's charge likes to take a pull on occasion. The flat galloping nature of Ffos Las is bound to suit and the easy run in even moreso, as I expect he'll be plodding along at the end quicker than anything, even though it'll probably be very slow! Nathan Sweeney takes off a valuable 7lbs to leave Ballyglen with a riding weight of 10st 13lbs, which will be handy in these conditions and I still think he looks attractively handicapped given his few impressive runs over fences, where he just doesn't jump well. Over hurdles, he only has run 3 times, twice in novice company where he just didn't perform and once in a maiden hurdle, which is his only piece of decent form over hurdles. He was badly outpaced over the 2m 4f trip at Fontwell but he stayed on gamely to run on past beaten horses to finish an 8 length 2nd on heavy ground. However, that trip is certainly on the sharp side for him, especially at that track and he seems to have improved over fences, enough so to see him in with a massive shout now that he's reverting to the smaller obstacles. His yard have had a couple of winners lately and don't visit this track too often (only twice with 3 runners, form of 6-5-4), with only 2 runners today, of which this is their only realistic winner. Todays conditions are exactly what he's after and further rain would even strengthen his claims. The 13/2 available is significantly too big and with the way he's been running over fences despite being a poor jumper, I think he should be favourite at the 4/1 mark. Bring On The Judge looks interesting from the Twiston-Davies yard and Duneen Point isn't without a chance either, but Bob Buckler's charge has a lot more to give and can take advantage of this mark on his handicap hurdle debut. Medium sized bet for me.

Nulty

I like duneen point. Not getting involved though

argosy2006

I like dipity, seems its nearly last though at this stage

x PyRo

Can't say much about Ballyegan. Jumped as if he thought he was leaping fences. Hadn't a hope then. He was well supported to go off the 9/2 joint favourite but was very disappointing. A winner's on the way soon.

-3pts today.

3:40 Folkstone - Amirico - 4pts @ 15/2 (VC)

I'm quite keen on this fellow chances. He looked a decent enough type when winning a maiden hurdle on his debut over jumps but has yet to live up to that promise on his next 3 starts. However, he won that race on very testing ground and hasn't had it anywhere near as testing since, but will get it too his liking today. Amirico probably didn't beat too much that day but he traveled and jumped like a horse with a handicap in him, so hopefully he can take advantage now that he's dropped in grade for his 2nd handicap start. He won that race in the capable hands of Will Biddick, who hasn't been on board him since but now takes over from Aidan Coleman, and his 5lb claim will surely come in handy in these conditions.

Amirico is trained by Venetia Williams, who has her horses in fine knick of late and has an impressive 20% strike rate at Folkstone. This is her only runner of the day here and it's a 400 mile round trip in total, so hopefully they're heading there with the intention of getting this fellow to achieve his 2nd hurdles win at the 5th attempt. His following 2 runs after gaining that maiden win were uninspiring to say the least but the ground was probably not soft enough to see him get involved. There was more to be optimistic about when he ran on good ground over 2m 4f at Sandown last time out, where he plugged on to be a 13 length 7th of 17, despite not having his optimum conditions. It'll be tough to get home over this extended 2m 6f trip on ground bordering on heavy, but he seems to have plenty stamina. The opposition look no great shakes here and I think that Venetia's charge should be significantly shorter in the betting. He's lightly raced, open to improvement, down in grade, ideally suited to conditions and potentially well handicapped. 15/2 is much too big, and I marked him up as a 4/1 shot so I'm having a fairly big bet on him. It's my only bet of the day and one I think could run a cracker. Although based on my own recent form, he'll tail off.

UrbanSea

I remember you saying you liked the horse,looks like a globe trotter this year.

http://www.sportinglife.com/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/11/03/02/manual_105405.html

UrbanSea

Monterosso goes in the half five at Meydan aswell tomorrow.

x PyRo

I love both of them horses. Might have a cheeky few quid on both.

Amirico was well punted to go off the 4/1 joint second favourite. He loomed up just before 2 out, having traveled like the best horse in the race but he found absolutely zilch off the bridle. He traded at 1.22 in running, but faded into 4th in the run in. Disappointing to say the least but I'm bound to land on a winner soon. Getting the markets right but the horses ain't proving up to scratch.

-4pts on the day.

x PyRo

3:30 Ludlow - Morcambe - 3pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Lightly raced 6 year old, who ran a shocker last time out on his handicap bow but he doesn't seem to act going left handed, and I think he's worth chancing again at a track that should suit. Morcambe ran a good 3rd on his penultimate start, when finishing 10 length behind a decent enough type. That was over 2m 3f around Towcester on extremely testing ground, which was probably too much for my selection, who's bred to be better on quicker ground. Whilst it won't exactly be too quick at Ludlow, it should be Good (Good-to-Soft), which should be suitable enough, as will this 2m 5f trip. He seems to jump quite well and is a very nice looking horse, so I don't think that this mark of 113 is at the ceiling of his abilities. He's only had 6 career runs, with only 4 over hurdles, so he's still learning and as he's from the Nicky Henderson yard, there's bound to be a bit more to come from this fellow. It's quite interesting that they see fit to put blinkers on now, and if they have a positive effect, a run slightly better than his penultimate start could suffice here in what looks a weak enough heat. The Henderson yard have a massive 33% strike rate, with 61 winners from 183 runners and a very nice ROI of 43%. They come down with 3 runners today, and could have a decent chance of getting a couple of wins. Barry Geraghty rides all 3, and he has a record of 5 wins from 9 runners over the Ludlow hurdles when on board Henderson's animals. Geraghty is bound to be a positive for Morcambe, who had David Bass and Andrew Tinkler on board for his last 2 outings, neither of which are close to being as good as Geraghty, obviously enough I suppose. The two market leaders are interesting, but neither have done enough to justify their prices and I think that my selection could prove to be a bit of value at 8/1. He hasn't proved much yet either, but should appreciate the ground, trip, track and also the better jockey taking the reins. I marked him up as an 11/2 shot, and I'll play medium stakes on my only bet of the day.

NaiveMelodies

Did monterosso win?? Stream cut off with a bit to go???


Haha he did and all!! Hope you were on him

x PyRo

What a horse! I only name myself after the good 'uns. :pac:

Pity the one I posted wasn't so good.

x PyRo

Morcambe was absolutely friendless in the market, eventually going off at 16/1. He made a mistake at the first, but apart from that, his jumping was quite fluent. However, despite traveling well for a long time, he faded when the pace quickened, before staying on once again to finish in 4th place, having looked likely to tail off. It wasn't a bad run considering and I think he's still of interest next time out.

Two of my favourite horses won at Meydan, with Monterosso coming home at 10/1 and Wigmore Hall landing the spoils at 12/1. Would of made a lovely double.

-3pts on the day.

x PyRo

3:30 Newbury - Fiftyonefiftyone - 2pts @ 16/1 (PaddyPower)

Lightly raced 7 year old who has only raced over fences on 5 occasions. He's yet to land the spoils and has thrown in a couple of shockers, but I think things should be suitable today and he can get involved at a very nice price. Fiftyonefiftyone was previously trained by Nicky Henderson, where he showed the odd glimpse of promise but was ultimately disappointing. He then moved to the Oliver Sherwood yard after finishing 3rd at Kempton in February of last year. He's had 4 runs for his new yard, but his form figures of 7-BD-2-PU are pretty uninspiring and his opening handicap mark of 120 leaves little room for maneuver. However, he has excuses for some of those runs and has bits of form that would give him a chance. He wasn't the best of hurdlers, but ran his best race at this track, on good ground when tackling 2m 5f for the first time. Fiftyonefiftyone finished 2nd of 17 when sent off as a 40/1 shot. He traveled well that day and only lost due to hanging badly when making his way up the run in. Obviously that being over hurdles and in novice company means it's not overly relevant here, but the horses obviously has a decent level of ability when on song and I think he still has more to show. He ran a good race 2 starts later, when finishing 3rd at Kempton on his final start for the Nicky Henderson yard but threw away his chances when pulling like a train throughout. However, there's a few pacemakers in opposition here, which should ensure a good gallop over this 2m trip, and that will help him settle a lot better. He does jump quite well, despite the odd mistake, and assuming he can do so on the back of a decent pace, I'm sure he'll be getting involved at the business end of proceedings. His 1 length 2nd to Ballybach on his penultimate isn't bad form, as I think that one should make a nice chaser, although it was his debut over fences. The soft-ish ground today should prove no obstacle to my selection and although the trainer/jockey combo aren't in great form, they've a reasonably decent chance of getting a winner here if this horse runs to his ability, which he hasn't shown too often. This race hasn't been won by a horse aged 8 or older since 2004, and with only 3 animals lining up who are favoured by that stat, Fiftyonefiftyone could be a potentially likely candidate on his handicap bow. I marked him up as a 10/1 shot, so the current 16/1 is much too big in my opinion. Small/medium stakes for me. He's not an overly obvious winner (although ones I think are, lose!), as he has never really run to his mark, but he has more to come and may find things to be in his favour today.

x PyRo

2nd.

iggy

x PyRo wrote: »

2nd.

Unlucky. Big winner is gettin closer. Keep at it

x PyRo

Cheers Iggy, that's the thing that I keep telling myself. Been a while now.

So frustrating though, as he jumped like a stag bar one mistake, traveled so well that he had to be sent to the front too early and then ran out of steam but plugged on well. Can't wait for the flat to return as I call the results much easier, in comparison to the NH, where I need a lot of luck to get winners, which I don't get.

On we go.

naughto

doing any thing for chelthem pyros??

x PyRo

Doing loads! Will take a while longer before I'll be posting anything else. I've already had maximum bets on Pandorama in the GC @ 20/1 and Dunguib in the CH @ 20/1.

Just praying for rain at the moment.

UrbanSea

Unlucky today Pyro,looked like he was going to win.

Those bets on Dunguib or Pandorama weren't 5 points were they?