PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Thought he was too, but not to be.

They were surely. Mad keen on both, especially Dunguib.

x PyRo

Fiftyonefiftyone ran a cracking second, jumping and traveling like the best horse throughout but got outdone by another runner after making his one and only mistake. It was a much improved effort and he'll be of interest again in the future.

-2pts on the day.

3:00 Newbury - Saphir Des Bois - 3pts @ 10/1 (PaddyPower)

Wide open Grade 3 Handicap here but I think that Peter Bowen's charge could run a cracker here. This is his first venture into Graded company, but he's clearly a talented animal and warrants a lot of respect with conditions likely to be ideal and only 10st 12lbs on his back. Saphir Des Bois was previously running for the Jonjo O'Neill yard, but has since moved to Peter Bowen's yard on the back of some disappointing runs in 2010. However, he made a very impressive effort on his debut for his new yard, on the back of what was a 10 month lay off. His comeback run was over 2m 3f on very testing ground at Hereford, in which he only found one too good when finishing a 1 length second to the Tim Vaughn trained Grand Lahou. My selection went off the 3/1 favourite that day, and despite tracking the winner throughout, he just couldn't get past when it mattered despite make numerous game attempts. It's quite possible that he was in need of the run and he's more than likely going to come on from it. That was rated as only a couple of lbs below his career best, and being only 7 years old, there's a fair chance that he could run beyond that mark, even though he has an exposed look about him.

Whether he's good enough at this level is debatable, but he jumps well, travels well and should be ideally suited to these conditions. The yard haven't had a winner in the past month, but they've had a few run quite well and could break the baron spell here. Peter Bowen's yard have a good 16% strike rate over the Newbury fences, and have had 2 winners from 3 runners when Richard Johnson takes the reins here. He's a very interesting booking for the yard, especially as his overall record for the yard being 28 wins from 93 runners over fences, giving the partnership a massive 30% strike rate, with a 23% ROI. That's extremely positive and Bowen has a 400 mile round trip to run just 2 horses, the other wouldn't be considered to have much hope. Johnson has a brilliant record around Newbury and should prove to be a massive plus to Saphir Des Bois. He's currently priced up at 10/1 with the bookmakers, which is bigger than I have him at. However, he's 15/1 on the exchange, and I reckon that he'll be available at a bigger price than this in the morning but I'll take it now as I'm not sure if I'll get on in the morning. I marked him up as an 8/1 shot, as I was quite impressed with his effort on debut for this yard and he's worthy of medium sized stakes. Whilst it'll be tough for this relatively small chaser to win here, I don't think it's beyond him in this field, if his jumping holds up in what should be a truly run race. Fine Parchment and Prince De Beauchene are my 2nd & 3rd rated respectively, but I'll just stick with the one as I'm bound to land on a nice one soon, so hopefully it's here.

x PyRo

3:35 Newbury - Zafranagar - 2pts @ 25/1 (VC)

Relatively lightly raced 6 year old who often throws away any chance he has by pulling hard through his races. However, they should go a good gallop and this is exactly what he needs. Zafranagar will be running from 1lb out of the handicap but he represents the Tony Carroll yard, who won this race last year having had similarly average form figures but managed to get his head in-front from the foot of the handicap under the guidance of todays jockey. Todays soft ground should be ideal for my selection, as he has won on it before (in a weaker race) and performed decently on even more testing ground. He's not the most fluent of jumpers, but has jumped better on the back of more solid gallops in the past, which he hasn't good too often. He won on the All-Weather back in January when scoring by 6 lengths, so he's obviously in quite good form and made a pleasing enough return to hurdling when finishing 5th at Kempton. He'll definitely be race-fit for this, having run 4 times already this year and he's bound to be trying here, as there's not much hope of him picking up more than the £7,500 on offer for winning the race. His jockey, Lee Edwards, takes off a valuable 5lbs to leave him with a featherweight of 9st 9lbs, which is bound to come in handy in this ground. Edwards is a very capable conditional jockey and he does exceptionally well when riding for Tony Carroll, with a 12% strike rate over hurdles and a 19% ROI from 162 rides. He also gets on well with this animal and has won on him before. This is a pretty wide-open contest, with plenty of doubts to be had about many of the field and it may pay to oppose the market leaders. I think that Zafranagar could be a lot better than he has shown to date, and now that he should get a good gallop combined with suitable ground, a light weight and a track that'll suit, I expect he could get involved at the business end of proceedings. He's 25/1 at the moment, which is too big and I made him half that at 12/1, which would be a fairer reflection of his chances. Small/medium stakes for me and I wouldn't be surprised to see this price come in somewhat.

x PyRo

2:10 Doncaster - Solway Sam - 2pts @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Very lightly raced given that he's 8 years old and has only run 11 times, but he looked a promising type when rattling in a hat-trick last year. He should definitely make a nice chaser but may not be done over hurdles yet, and despite underachieving last twice, he could be a lively contender here even though he has to shoulder the burden of top weight. Solway Sam is yet to win over a trip this far, but is unexposed over it having only run over 3 miles on 2 occasions. He seemed to be ridden to get the trip on the first occasion and was never really put into the race, whilst he was definitely out of his depth when trailing in 39 length behind Lush Life when last seen at Cheltenham in December. This is a relatively competitive field, especially as the betting is 5/1 the field but I think that Lisa Harrison's charge is vastly overpriced, given that he clearly has ability, is still unexposed and has had valid excuses last twice. He has the speed for 2 mile when things pan out and has won over that trip on 3 occasions, but has also won over 2m 4f, shaping as if he'd get further too. He seems to have a very good engine to match the speed and he also hurdles quite well, so 3 mile on the flat course of Doncaster should be ideal for him. The majority of his form is on flat tracks also, which is interesting. He has won at big odds before, when winning a NHF race around Aintree when sent off as a 33/1 shot, with the favourite being none other than Grand Crus, who finished well back in 9th place. That form doesn't really matter here but he has a couple of scalps to his name and is a horse who demands a lot of respect in this contest. His yard haven't had a runner since December, but do quite well with their hurdlers, as their overall strike rate of 10% suggests. They also don't come here too often (only twice) and has booked Tom Siddall to ride their only runner of the day, plus he's a first time booking for the yard. Siddall is a jockey I rate quite highly and he's provided me with many a winner in the past, so hopefully he does so again and justifies the yards 300 mile round trip to come to Doncaster with this animal. Solway Sam is somehow judged to be a 20/1 shot here, and I don't really understand that. He should be better for having had a 2 month break and I don't think his handicap mark of 130 is beyond him, especially against these opposition. Carrying so much weight shouldn't have too much effect either, as he's a big strong animal who's built to do so and assuming he takes a more prominent position early on (restrained too much last twice) then I can see him being bang there and involved in the finishing stages of the race. I marked him up as a 10/1 shot, so it's small/medium stakes yet again. The ground is ideal also, which I forgot to mention!

x PyRo

Final bet for me.

3:15 Doncaster - Meanus Dandy - 3pts @ 8/1 (VC)

Another lightly raced type, this time it's an 8 year old from the Paul Nicholls yard. He's only had 8 runs over fences, proving most progressive when things fell right, and before that he was a 4 time winning Pointer. Meanus Dandy hasn't been seen since unseating Ian Popham in the Becher Chase at Aintree in November, but the saddle had slipped causing the 2 to part ways. He won on his penultimate start, when staying on strongly in first time blinkers (on again) over this trip at Wincanton. That was on similar ground to what he'll face today and he won in the style of a horse going the right way, so the 12lbs rise may not be beyond him. This is his first time to run at Doncaster, but a flat track is exactly what he wants and it should help him show his best form, especially in the jumping department, where he's somewhat sketchy at times. Nicholls has a fine 24% strike rate around here, whilst Popham doesn't have much experience riding around Doncaster but he's a fine jockey over the larger obstacles and he also takes off a valuable 3lbs, to leave Meanus Dandy carrying 11st 1lb. The ground is ideal today and Nicholls is sure to have him ready after the break, so I expect he'll have a big chance of landing this £30,000 prize for connections if all goes well. This is a wide-open contest but I think this 8 year old is more than capable if he's on a going day. He's currently priced at 8/1, which is too big, and I had him down around the 6/1 mark. Medium stakes for me. Killyglen and Ringaroses were the other two under consideration but Paul Nicholls' charge is preferred.

CheckRaiseIRL

Good work ethic and thought process however the variance on your bankroll must be having a very negative impact in the long run.

For example you are betting double what a reasonable estimate may be for a kelly criterion full stake in some of your selections.

have you kept a LSP account?

x PyRo

All the above lost.

3:00 Exeter - Pepporoni Pete - 3pts @ 28/1 (Bet365)

Very headstrong and quirky type but handicapped to strike. He's ran poor last thrice but should find this test a lot more to his liking, especially as he now drops in grade to take on some pretty poor animals. He's not easy to win with, but on his day he's a decent type and 2m 3f around Exeter may be exactly what he's in need of. He's 3lbs below his last winning mark, partnered by a jockey who has won on him twice (horse takes a bit of getting used to) and ran some decent races last year which would see a similar effort suffice here. 28/1 is madness in this company and he's very capable of pulling off a "shock" if he runs to his abilities. He was well supported in a claiming hurdle on his penultimate start but something went wrong that day and he was pulled up, while he blew his chances last time out by pulling extremely hard for the first mile but was still there traveling well 3 out before his effort petered out due to his earlier exertions I'd imagine. If he can settle better and they go a decent clip upfront, he'll have a good chance of getting involved. The handicapper hasn't given him too much leeway in the last while but is taking a chance now and Pepporoni Pete could take advantage. Medium sized stakes as I marked him up as a 10/1 chance.

jive

backed him just there gone into 20s on bet365 already someones watching this......

D1976

Good stuff Pyro, 2nd at 25/1 :D

UrbanSea

Would have been nice each way.

Goldcupfav

Hope you were on Wheres Reiley today after backing him the last two times !!

Nulty

Just flicking through your last three pages I see no ew bets...you given up on them? What turned you?

x PyRo

Goldcupfav wrote: »

Hope you were on Wheres Reiley today after backing him the last two times !!

Typically my internet was down for a long time (until about 3pm) so I couldn't get post it but I was on. Not enough to cover the numerous times I've lost money on him but nice to finally see him return a few quid.

Nulty wrote: »

Just flicking through your last three pages I see no ew bets...you given up on them? What turned you?

I was just trying it out, as when I went each way, nothing would place. Though now that I haven't more are placing and none are winning. I was losing too much on e/w bets that made the wins fairly meaningless, so instead of splitting my stakes to go e/w, I've been just putting the whole shebang on the nose.

Oh the joys!

I'll be back e/w punting on the Flat and I'll hopefully be reasonably profitable again. This thread will die a death soon enough then I'll have a brand-spanking-new one that'll hopefully bring luck and less losing.

x PyRo

Short write up, falling asleep!

4:00 Fontwell - Formedable - 1pt @ 28/1 (VC)

Form figures are relatively uninspiring but could be capable of running a good one in this lowly handicap hurdle. He's an 11 race maiden but has shown the odd glimpse of promise, and could be well in here off a mark of 77. He ran well for a long time at this course on his only start here, but that was over 3m 3f back in April of 09, where he failed to see out the trip but ran well until the tempo quickened on ground possibly too quick for him. He's running over 2m 4f here, which is perfect and the GS ground should pose no problems. Whilst he's not an obvious winner-in-waiting, I think the 28/1 provides a hint of value in a contest with little substance and the re-application of cheekpieces could perk this animal up again. Will Kennedy takes the ride and he's a capable jockey who has ridden this fellow before on a few occasions. He has ridden a winner for this yard before and will hopefully do so again, even if it's a little optimistic to hope that he will. Formedable is worth a small go at fancy odds and stranger things have happened!

x PyRo

D-d-d-d-onkey.

Quick one, race on in 20 mins.

6:00 Kempton - Lytham - 3pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Wasn't going to back this fellow at the 7/2-4/1 mark that he was this morning but he's now a very attractive price and worthy of backing. Lytham is a 7 time course winner, coming from only 15 starts and he has shaped as if retaining plenty of his old ability on his last 2 starts. He was a fast finishing 5th place on his penultimate start, when coming 5 lengths behind a relatively easy winner in a truly run race. He was then dropped 2lbs when stepping up in trip to 1m 4f, also here at Kempton. Tony Carroll's charge could only manage 2nd place, running into a well handicapped animal in the process but it was yet another step in the right direction. Connections see fit to drop him back to 1m 2f, which is around his optimum trip and I reckon things could pan out in his favour here with the race likely to be run to suit. J-P Guillambert takes the reins in what's an interesting jockey booking for this yard. He's a jockey I quite like and rate highly, although he's not as good as Neil Callan who hops off, which is a slight worry. Lytham is well handicapped, now 9lbs below his last win, achieved over 1f further at this track back in April of 2010. Assuming he's still in as good form as he showed last time out, then the 11/2 (could get bigger) should prove to be quite overpriced. The big worry is Barney Curley's charge, who could dot up again or tail off last but I'm sticking with this lively 10 year old, who deserves to get his head in-front once again. Medium sized stakes for me.

x PyRo

Lytham was only 3rd.

5:50 Wolverhampton - Absa Lutte - 5pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)

Well punted last time out, when backed from 14/1 early doors into around 7/1. However, she done her traditional break from the stalls and was forced to be held up at the rear. She ran on well under the tender riding of Joesph Young and was an ever diminishing 2.5 lengths off the winner, but could only finish in 9th place. Absa Lutte will now have the added benefit of George Baker, who will be taking the reins on her for the 2nd time. He was on board for the mares penultimate start, but she was drawn terribly and was forced to sit on the outside of the field, which wasn't ideal. Now that they're well drawn and likely to get covered up on the back of what should be a decent pace, I think that this well handicapped 8 year old could be primed to strike. She's 6lbs below her last winning mark and is running quite respectably without managing to put it all together. I think that today could well be the day and she'll take advantage in this relatively weak race. The Stuart Williams horse is an obvious danger given his recent efforts but if Baker's mount can run to her ability, she could (it's a big could!) win easily. She owes me quite a bit at this stage, but I'm playing maximum stakes again as the price is too good to be true. I reckon she should be at least half this price and the race could fall into her lap, whether she can take advantage is another thing but I'll take my chances.

x PyRo

Absa Lutte was still going well when repeatedly denied a clear run through. She broke well for once, but it didn't matter in the end. She's so bloody frustrating but what can one do!

Bank - 200.63pts (+100.63pts)

x PyRo

Short write-ups, caugh for time.

1:55 Sandown - Get It On - 2pts @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Tough race to solve but the return to a sounder surface should see Evan Williams' charge in a much better light. He has improved significantly since joining this yard and has quickly disposed of his Irish form, winning 2 novice hurdles in the process before failing to win last twice, though did shape better when chasing home Captain Kirkton last time out (12lb swing should help reverse form). Whilst it would be quite an achievement for him to win this, he looks quite well handicapped, should relish conditions and looks progressive in the main, although vulnerable to the more lightly raced types. His yard are in good knick and at 20/1, he's worthy of a small enough bet.

3:00 Sandown - Fiulin - 3pts @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Another selection from the Evan Williams yard, and one who has a lot more ability than he has shown to date. He ran a decent race in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year, finishing a 13 length 7th behind Menorah when sent off as a 100/1 shot. His run behind Dunraven Storm when last seen in October was decent and I think he could prove dangerous here off a mark of 130 on ground that should be ideal. He was previously a decent horse on the flat, winning a Listed contest when trained by Marco Botti and the fact that he cost 280,000gns shows how decent he's expected to be. He's lightly raced over hurdles, having only raced 4 times, and despite being a maiden, he's not without a chance at a very nice price here. The Racing Post analyst deems him good enough to be Napped, and I'm thinking along the same lines. He's unexposed, potentially progressive, full of ability and well handicapped. Medium sized stakes and I expect a brave showing.

2:10 Wolverhampton - Elna Bright - 2pts @ 25/1 (WillHill)

Quite a bit to do at the weights but was doing lots of good work late on over 6f at Lingfield in a similar contest last time out. He ran on well to come a 2 length away 7th place. This race should be run at a better pace and assuming the visor does the trick again second time up, he'll relish the extra furlong. First time visit to the track, so that's an unknown but has won at both Kempton and Lingfield so he's comfortably at home on the polytrack. Liam Keniry is back on (twice a winner on him) and also drawn well in stall 4. 25/1 is vastly overpriced and he has a much better chance of making the frame if the gaps open at the right time. There are some classy types in opposition, but on his day, he can run to a level that would see him get involved at the deep end here and I fancy a big run today. He has certainly been threatening to produce a good one for a fair while now.

woodyg

x PyRo wrote: »

Short write-ups, caugh for time.

1:55 Sandown - Get It On - 2pts @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Tough race to solve but the return to a sounder surface should see Evan Williams' charge in a much better light. He has improved significantly since joining this yard and has quickly disposed of his Irish form, winning 2 novice hurdles in the process before failing to win last twice, though did shape better when chasing home Captain Kirkton last time out (12lb swing should help reverse form). Whilst it would be quite an achievement for him to win this, he looks quite well handicapped, should relish conditions and looks progressive in the main, although vulnerable to the more lightly raced types. His yard are in good knick and at 20/1, he's worthy of a small enough bet.

3:00 Sandown - Fiulin - 3pts @ 16/1 (Bet365)

Another selection from the Evan Williams yard, and one who has a lot more ability than he has shown to date. He ran a decent race in the Supreme Novices Hurdle last year, finishing a 13 length 7th behind Menorah when sent off as a 100/1 shot. His run behind Dunraven Storm when last seen in October was decent and I think he could prove dangerous here off a mark of 130 on ground that should be ideal. He was previously a decent horse on the flat, winning a Listed contest when trained by Marco Botti and the fact that he cost 280,000gns shows how decent he's expected to be. He's lightly raced over hurdles, having only raced 4 times, and despite being a maiden, he's not without a chance at a very nice price here. The Racing Post analyst deems him good enough to be Napped, and I'm thinking along the same lines. He's unexposed, potentially progressive, full of ability and well handicapped. Medium sized stakes and I expect a brave showing.

2:10 Wolverhampton - Elna Bright - 2pts @ 25/1 (WillHill)

Quite a bit to do at the weights but was doing lots of good work late on over 6f at Lingfield in a similar contest last time out. He ran on well to come a 2 length away 7th place. This race should be run at a better pace and assuming the visor does the trick again second time up, he'll relish the extra furlong. First time visit to the track, so that's an unknown but has won at both Kempton and Lingfield so he's comfortably at home on the polytrack. Liam Keniry is back on (twice a winner on him) and also drawn well in stall 4. 25/1 is vastly overpriced and he has a much better chance of making the frame if the gaps open at the right time. There are some classy types in opposition, but on his day, he can run to a level that would see him get involved at the deep end here and I fancy a big run today. He has certainly been threatening to produce a good one for a fair while now.

As Get it on is a non runner Im going with Ruby on his return on The Performer @ 8-1

x PyRo

Get It On is a NR.

1:55 Sandown - Blenheim Brook - 2pts @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Harshly treated given that he was put up 9lbs for a 2nd place finish and a novice win, when sent off 30/100 fav. However, he looks to be going places and is held in high regard by his trainer, so a mark of 127 may not be beyond him. The sound surface should be ideal and he travels/jumps well in his races and should be ideally suited to how this will turn out. 14/1 looks a nice price and although it'll take some effort for him to win, he has a chance of getting involved.

Nulty

Fiulin = Smashed into in the betting.

Good Luck

budgemook

Doing anything for Cheltenham Pyro?

UrbanSea

budgemook wrote: »

Doing anything for Cheltenham Pyro?

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056206507

x PyRo

FLAAAAAT RACING!!! ZOMG! :pac:

Although it's crap enough stuff but I've got one fancy.

4:35 Curragh - Money Trader - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports)

Probably a little out of his dept here but I wouldn't be overly surprised to see him run a big race at a nice price. Money Trader isn't exactly consistent, but he has been heavily campaigned throughout his career, racing 14 times as a 2 year old and 11 times as a 3 year old. However, the best time to catch him could well be first time out, especially if last seasons effort is anything to go by. He ran on similarly soft ground at this course on the back of a 5 month absence. He ran a cracking second to Duchess Of Foxland, who ran that day off a mark 80, and has since progressed to win a Listed contest when rated 100 (also placed since at Group 3 level, twice). That was over 7 furlongs, which my selection saw out well and went on to score easily over a mile 2 starts later. He beat Mujaazef that day by 2 lengths, and he's a fairly useful animal. However, Money Trader paid for that win by going up 9lbs in weight and struggled for the rest of the season. He has since dropped back to just 1lb above his last winning mark and although this is a tough ask, he has conditions to suit, a good draw and could well be up to running above his current mark. A lot of it will depend on how trainer Jim Gorman has him for his first run of the season but the booking of Wayne Lordan looks a positive booking and he could well prove to be a big plus to this animal. Lordan is a very talented jockey and landed the penultimate running of this race, so hopefully he'll do so again. The horse himself has won over 5 furlongs (soft), 7 furlongs (soft) and a mile (good), so he's obviously got plenty of speed, stamina and toughness, as his trainer has said by stating "he`s definitely the toughest horse I`ve ever trained." Although he'd want to be considering he runs every other week. Whilst Money Trader's end of season form is nothing special, he should be one to catch in the first couple of months and if he doesn't win now, he'll be winning soon enough. His soft ground record has 2 wins, 1 second and 1 third from 7 runs. Conditions are ideal and he may just be up to causing a surprise, or at least grabbing one of the 4 places. 16/1 looks a nice price, but there's every chance that'll get bigger as he's not from a big yard nor one with many winners. Medium each-way stakes for me. 2 of the last 3 winners have come in priced at 20/1 & 33/1, so it's probably best to go for a bit of a long shot and avoid the market principles, with plenty having question marks.

almat1981

WOhoo
Flat racing + pyro = $$$

At 28 to 1 in paddys now

UrbanSea

almat1981 wrote: »

WOhoo
Flat racing + pyro = $$$

At 28 to 1 in paddys now

84/1 on BF is even nicer.

DOC09UNAM

Unlucky buddy, your luck will come good again

x PyRo

Ah nearly. He went off 98/1 on Betfair and traded at 2/1 in the race. Thought he'd plow on and win but no such luck. Came a gallant 5th in the end.

Still happy with the run and there'll be lots of money to be made this year.

slookie

I know feck all about horses, but is the flat season starting now? Is now the time to be following you??? Not that it wasn't all along!

x PyRo

The Irish flat season kicked off there but nothing again for a week or so. It's 10 days until the UK flat season starts and that's my strong point, especially the big heritage handicaps. Hopefully it'll be as good as last season and if it is, there'll be a few quid to be made.

I'm in the middle of working on a "horses to follow" piece, which will have various animals I think will land us some money this year. There's 2 fillies from last year (both are 3 year olds now) in particular that I'm mad keen on and they'll definitely be earners imo. All will be posted within the next week. It won't be mind-blowing stuff but I think it'll be interesting in the long run to see how they do. If it's ever a time to follow things I put up, it's now and I'll do my best to earn myself, and anyone interested, some money.