PyRo's Horse Bets.

UrbanSea

Iain,James,can we please stop the fighting

Nice winner :cool:

PEACEBROTHER

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers for the comments.

Clive, I did surely. Has to be used in the 2:10 at Haydock tomorrow.

3:50 Haydock - Nicene Creed - 5pts @ 6/1 (PaddyPower)

A very bizarre prize for a horse who has shown ability over sticks to date but is obviously going to be a lot better on quicker ground, which he gets for the first time in his hurdling career. Nicene Creed was an expensive purchase when fetching £175,000 in May of last year, having finished a good 2nd of 25 in a Punchestown bumper, behind none other than the 150 rated Backspin. He has won 2 of his 5 hurdling starts, but encounters ideal ground for the first time, which could see him make a mockery of this rating of 123. It's only his second start in handicap hurdles, the other was last time out, where he was sent of as a 5/1 joint-favourite in a competitive 14 runner race. He was threading water a long way from home and it was obvious that conditions weren't to his liking. He's from the Phillip Hobbs yard and they seem to think a lot of him, so they'll be looking to exploit this mark some day soon. Hobbs has a fine 19% strike rate here at Haydock when running his animals over hurdles (in the last 5 seasons) and Tom O'Brien, who has ridden this fellow on all 5 of his hurdle runs, also boasts a good record, with 3 winners from 18 runners over the Haydock sticks, to give him a 17% strike rate and a £9 LSP. The yard only come down with 2 runners and make a 400 mile round trip to do so. I'm not overly keen on the other one they're bringing down and this is the one to be on. 6/1 looks vastly overpriced and I reckon he could halve in price, at least. Maximum stakes for me and assuming the ground continues to be good, this fellow should be capable of taking advantage.

Price just gone into 5's, still 11/2 with VC.

7/2 Now :eek::eek::eek::eek:

budgemook

PEACEBROTHER wrote: »

7/2 Now :eek::eek::eek::eek:

was 10/3 for me :rolleyes:

naughto

budgemook wrote: »

was 10/3 for me :rolleyes:

got him at 5 to 1 last night had a good few winners at chemtham so have money in the pp account.heres hoping ;)

rossit

got him at 7/2 come on pryo do your magic top tips

mailburner

time to jump back on the bandwagon :pac:

longshotvalue

6/1 epic price, went for a reverse forecast with Los Nadis.

good Luck

YohanCabeye7

UL.
Twiston Davies again... Why didn't you fancy mad mouse btw?

x PyRo

Thought the drop in trip and his mark would possibly be too much but obviously not. Looks like Twister is coming back into form so he's worth keeping an eye on.

Pity Nicene Creed could only manage 3rd. Ran a strange race.

x PyRo

I should stay away from the all-weather but here goes..

4:10 Lingfield - Qadar - 3pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

Cracking price for a 5 time course winner who has 5 wins, 4 seconds and 8 thirds from 28 runs around Lingfield. Qadar showed he retained plenty of his old abilities when making his debut for Alan McCabe's yard just 5 weeks ago, having previously run in Ireland for the last 18 months. He was sent off as a 25/1 shot off a mark of 69 and duly obliged in impressive fashion, showing an instant turn of foot to score by three-quarters of a length. McCabe went on to say he was "very well handicapped" and could be aimed at a Listed race around here, which if he's being realistic, would see him hold huge claims in this race off a mark of 74. He did run a week later and finished a good 2 length 3rd to Norville in the Sprint Series Final, but he was hampered on the bend and had to be snatched up, which didn't help his chances one bit. He ran on under pressure (race seemed to suit those racing handy) but probably didn't get the chance to give his all and with more luck in running from a relatively poor draw today, I think he could well go 2 better and win. Qadar meets Norville on 6lbs better terms today, which is enough to turn around the 2 length deficit and the price difference is odd, considering the latter is a 9/2 shot here. Judging by overnight money, Arctic Lynx should go off favourite, but he was over a length behind my selection last time out and I see no obvious reason to suggest that form should be overturned (although I'm having a saver on him), unless McCabe's runner is "kept for another day", which is always possible with his yard.

There's plenty of pace on here, which is a big positive for Qadar, as the previously rated 102 animal seems to thrive on a solid gallop, which ensure he'll get to use that very impressive burst of speed that he possesses. The yard boast a fine 15% strike rate around here and a tasty LSP of £84, which will hopefully rise after this race. The horse hasn't too much mileage on the clock in recent years, having only raced 3 times in 2010 and he still looks well treated off this mark. McCabe could well eke out enough to see him win this relatively comfortably and the only worry I have is his draw in stall 11, but being a hold-up horse, it may not be overly important plus the stats suggest there's no particular bias here at Lingfield over 6 furlongs. 11/2 is underestimating his chances here and I think he should be around the 3/1 mark, certainly no bigger than 4/1. His form claims are solid and he has run 2 of his best races in years for the new yard, so any further progress on that front should see him get involved here and I'll play medium stakes on the lively 9 year old. Although he shouldn't overturn the form, I'll have a small stake-saver on Arctic Lynx - 1pt @ 9/2 (Bet365), mainly as he was so well fancied last time out, going off 13/8 in a competitive sprint having looked quite progressive beforehand. He's now partnered with a tongue-tie for the first time, which should help him as his finishing kick seemed to last no time when last seen and the aid could well help him at the business end. He's a strong traveler, still likely to have more improvement in him and has the added help of George Baker in the saddle. If my main selections loses, this is the only one I can see beating him. For the sake of 1 point, it's worth having a saver. He should also be one to keep an eye on when there's good ground during the turf season. Certainly looks like an animal with plenty more to give.

Kod-box

I see Monterosso is out in Dubai today, worth a sneaky e/w bet at a big price surely?

Nulty

Your not wrong about Spencer...what an idiot. He had the World Cup at his mercy there and blew it.

UrbanSea

I really try and avoid backing him. Thought Cape Blanco could have been good enough,even with him on it.
Alas,I was wrong.

The Recliner

Kod-box wrote: »

I see Monterosso is out in Dubai today, worth a sneaky e/w bet at a big price surely?

Good call dude

He was 40/1 on PP just before the race

x PyRo

Kod-box wrote: »

I see Monterosso is out in Dubai today, worth a sneaky e/w bet at a big price surely?

Would of replied to you if I hadn't been sick all day. He's a special horse altogether, to me anyways. Ran a cracker. I'm pretty sure that he would of won if they hadn't of went so slow up front. He's an out and out galloper so it didn't help one bit, plus he stays further too. Cracking run and a class horse. Pity it was run like a low-level Lingfield handicap and turned into a sprint.

Nulty wrote: »

Your not wrong about Spencer...what an idiot. He had the World Cup at his mercy there and blew it.

Don't get me started on him! There's something wrong with him.

Threw away Wigmore Hall's chances earlier on too. Terrible.

x PyRo

Flat Racing.

4:30 Leopardstown - Park Ranger - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (WillHill)

Usually a quirky type but plenty to be positive about here with conditions ideal and return to this 1m 2f trip likely to see him in a better light. This is a 60-100 handicap but I'm finding it quite easy to discount numerous runners and I think that Park Ranger could be a very lively candidate from a lowly weight here. He ran 6 times last year, 5 of those coming on the flat and once over hurdles. He was well punted nearly every time, including on his seasonal bow which was in June, on the back of a longer break than he faces now. That was a competitive 23 runner handicap at the Curragh and he opened 6/1 on-course, before being massively punted to go off the 9/4 favourite, an all-mighty move in such a short space of time. That was his handicap debut on the flat and the first time he ran over 1m 2f. Park Ranger traveled well throughout and was still bang in contention 2f out (hit 1.64 in-running), but he didn't seem to pick up on the Good-to-Firm ground that day, leaving the money behind. However, that defeat was avenged next time out when the then 4 year old managed to scoot in off a mark of 62 in a Yielding/Soft ground handicap over the same trip at Fairyhouse. The horse he beat that day (by 3 lengths) was running off a mark of 59 and has since won off 82 on the all-weather at Dundalk.

Park Ranger was then stepped up to 1m 4f for his next 3 runs, well backed every time again but he failed to impress despite being obviously fancied. All 3 of those runs were off a 10lb higher mark than his win and he's now dropped 1lb by the handicapper and has a very capable 7lb claimer on board, leaving him with a featherweight of 7st 11lbs on his back. The drop back in trip is exactly what's wanted, along with the soft-ish ground and possible decent gallop to run at. He's tactically versatile, so the relatively poor draw in stall 11 should prove to be no hinderence to him and the flat, galloping nature of the Leopardstown track could eke out even further improvement. Connections obviously felt that his mark was still workable at the end of last season and if similar traits follow again, I think he could well be subject to another gamble in a race that I think is very winnable and not as open as it seems. The yard had a couple of winner over hurdles this month and come to this track with just 2 runners today. The other one is likely to be a decent price and looks interesting on his handicap bow but there's too many similar types in that race and they may have their best chance of a winner here. Whilst my selection doesn't have the class of an animal like the potential favourite, Gimli's Rock, he's in receipt of 26lbs from that runner and could be open to significantly more improvement, given that he's lightly raced overall (run 8 times on the flat) and unexposed at this trip. 10/1 is a very nice each-way price about this animal and I'll play medium stakes on him. It'll be tough to win first time up but if he's tuned then he'll be on the scene, and if not, I'll have chance to recoup the losses at some stage, as I think he's definitely one with a decent handicap in him, especially off this lowly mark. Hopefully he's ready to do the business and get his head in-front again.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Fúcking hell. Just pipped for third at the end.

x PyRo

That's heartbreaking altogether. Took it up going best and I thought he'd scoot clear but he just doesn't like being in front. Traded at 1.04 in running and unplaced!

Ah well. Roll on next weekend.

thesandeman

Think the 'official' flat starts on Wednesday in Carlisle or some other obscure course.
We are gettin close ;-)

thesandeman

Dont forget about the new stall system starting tomorrow Pyro.
Hugh Taylor only realised today that it was coming in :-S
Dont know how it will affect things.

UrbanSea

Is that where they're putting the number on the race card as stall number instead of weight?

thesandeman

Nope. They are turning the numbers on the stalls on right-handed courses arseways. Stall 1 will be on the right as you look at it from behind. It used be on the left.
First meeting is Leicester on Thur I think but it will also affect Goodwood etc.
Some other changes as well.
Details on BHA website.

x PyRo

Cheers Sandy. Knew that anyways as people were talking about it elsewhere. It'll take a bit of getting used to.

Continuing to work off the same bank but I'll be keeping stats for the months and year as I go along.

I'll have my ten to follow list posted on Friday evening. A few of them are running on Saturday so it'll be interesting to see how it goes. Can't be bothered starting a new thread.

2:50 Catterick - Dazeen - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

On face value this race looks to be a wide-open contest but I find myself readily dismissing many of the competitors and the one I keep coming back to is Paul Midgley's 4 year old, Dazeen. Whilst he's still a maiden after 21 runs, he has run well on his last 5 flat starts, with form reading 3-3-3-2-3. His form over this distance from a limited number of runs reads; 2-4-3-2, and whilst he's yet to get his head in-front, he has more than enough talented to get a win off his current rating of 62, especially when they're likely to go off quite fast here. A sharp 7 furlongs should play into his hands and although it usually pays to race handy at Catterick, it's likely that this race will be set up for those coming late and fast, which is likely to be the tactics used today. His yard have a good record around here by their standards and Franny Norton comes down to a track where he rides well for just one ride. He was on board Dazeen last time out, over an inadequate 5 furlong trip at Southwell and they finished a gallant 3rd, behind my old favourite, Where's Reiley. That doesn't tell the whole story though, as my selection for todays race was quite detached from the field that day, before running on strongly under-pressure, showing he's still in good knick following 4 month lay off. He also comes here with a run under his belt, which is another positive and he's more than entitled to come on for that run. His record in bigger fields ain't half bad either and if he gets some luck in running, I expect he'll be finishing off his race as well as anything. The ground is likely to be quick, which poses no problems as he seems suited too all conditions.

The current favourite, Trans Sonic, may need slower ground to be at his best, plus he's not overly well drawn given how the race could pan out early on and his preference to race towards the head of affairs. He's also a bit high in the handicap for my liking and is a much better animal on the Southwell surface. Legal Legacy was another one that looked interesting at a relatively nice price, but he hasn't run since October and is likely to come on for the run, before being a much better proposition next time out. A few other come into the equation but I'm pretty sweet on Dazeen's chances of getting off the mark sometime soon, hopefully it'll be now. He rates as fair value at 12/1 and I reckon that could shorten tomorrow, as it overstates his chances for sure. I had him down as an 8/1 shot. The yards recent form on the all-weather this calendar year is a slight worry (1 winner, 35 runners), and that's why I'm playing smallish each-way stakes on him. Everything should pan out to suit and if he's good enough, he'll go close. He certainly deserves to get his head in-front at this stage and this track could unlock the door.

slookie

Cheers Pyro. Am I right in saying that you can't back e/w on Betfair...bit of a balls really when they normanlly have the best odds.

iggy

slookie wrote: »

Cheers Pyro. Am I right in saying that you can't back e/w on Betfair...bit of a balls really when they normanlly have the best odds.

Just do it to win and then bet on it to place

slookie

iggy wrote: »

Just do it to win and then bet on it to place

So for example put €5 on to win and also €5 on to place....same thing as 5 e/w?

UnitedIrishman

Yup same thing, although place odds are slightly tighter.

Best of luck for coming season Pyro, here's hoping for a few winners!

slookie

Has drifted to 14/1 now on betfair...was only 8's this morning...ugh

x PyRo

Ominous drift. Someone knew something!

Dazeen was very well punted early on and was the favourite (at 6/1) in places until a massive drift on the exchange before the off. I knew they'd go fast up front but it was exceptionally fast early on, with regular pacemakers struggling to get anywhere near the head of affairs. It definitely paid to race handy and my selection never got into it, but still ran a reasonably respectable race given how things panned out. Not the ideal start but it could always be worse.

-3pts on the day.

JONJO THE MISER

whos the man for the flat season whos the man for the flat sean , the time to make money is now im in my element flat season and riches:D:D