PyRo's Horse Bets.

thesandeman

Its ok Pyro. Aidan covered your ass :-P

Really looking forward to following you this year. Hopefully youll hit the 500.

x PyRo

Seen that. Pity I didn't cover myself. Cheers for the words of encouragement and hopefully I'll hit the target. Trying to cut out the silly mistakes I've made over the winter and if I can, I could go close to it. June onwards will probably be my best time though. Seems much easier then as most of the animal have been out and shown their levels of form. Then it's up to me to find excuses as to why they're so crazily overpriced.

5:20 Leicester - Nimue - 3pts @ 9/2 (Bet365)

Fine looking filly who took a fair while to eventually get a win, but she's got plenty of ability and looks a very interesting prospect for the season if she can overcome her quirks. Nimue originally cost connections $310,000 as a 2 year old, and was certainly expected to be racing at a higher level than this class 4 handicap. However, she didn't win until the 11th run of her career and was overturned as favourite no fewer than 5 times. There's still plenty of form in the book that should see her much shorter than her current price, including her run first time up, when finishing a length 2nd to Beyond Desire, a very talented filly who has placed at Group 2 level and won a Listed contest (rated 105). Paul Cole's charge also finished a 1 length 3rd to Eldalil on her seasonal bow last year, and that filly has gone on to place at Group 2 level and was rated 106 last time out. Dance East, who finished 2nd that day, is also a classy type out of Jeremy Noseda's yard, and she was last seen running in a Listed handicap off a mark of 96. Both of those runs came when running fresh, and I don't see the 243 day layoff being much of a hindrance to the now 4 year old filly.

Nimue's last run was in a poor quality class 4 maiden, in which she won by 8 lengths hard held. She set out to make all on the very quick ground at Thirsk and had the field on the stretch a long way from home, before putting the race to bed in a matter of strides. Whilst an improved effort will be required here, the ease in which she galloped all over the field was quite visually impressive and she finally completed what she threatened to do for a long time. The handicapper put her up 8lbs for that effort, but I still think she could be significantly well in at the ratings, assuming her headstrong nature doesn't return. She's caused trouble in the stalls on a number of occasions and doesn't seem to find much for pressure, but if she gets to lead here, which is very possible, then her chances of gaining career win number two is increased. The big risk isn't the opposition, it's the wonderful (sarcasm) Jamie Spencer, who could do anything from the simply amazing, to the absolutely shocking. The latter happens more often than the former but his form on this animal reads ; 3-2-3-2, which isn't too bad but there were a few dodgy rides in that sequence, so hopefully he'll make amends for those "mishaps". The Spencer/Cole partnership have a decent 15% strike rate, but individually, they do quite well around this course, with Jamie having a 25% strike rate in the last 5 years and Cole having a 21% strike rate in the same period, with a LSP of £21. This is his only runner of the day and Spencer's only mount at the meeting, before he heads up to Wolverhampton. I do my best to stay away from him, even though he's top-notch at times, but I think the horse has massive claims here if she's allowed to gallop away out in front.

Of the opposition, Space Station is likely to go off favourite but I'm of the opinion that he could be handicapped to his best and is also more suited to a sharper track. He's obviously a horse of ability, but at 3/1, I'd rather be on the other side of the fence and lay him. His stable is in good knick though and he has a fitness advantage over some of these, but may find it tough to win off this mark. Mick Easterby's Barren Brook is another likely contender on some of the form he showed last season. However, for all that he's lightly raced, he may prove to be a better animal over 6 furlongs (pulls hard) and is entitled to need this. The fact that I can never catch his yard right is another reason to oppose and he may not be suited to how I think this race will pan out. Claims could be made for a few others, but they wouldn't be overly strong and I reckon that the best bet for this race is Nimue, both in terms of value and who could be the most likely winner. The Jamie Spencer factor does scare me though, and that's one of the reasons I'm not loading up with maximum stakes here, plus it's early in the season and anything can happen. Also, Nimue is drawn right along the far rail, assuming I'm reading the new draw system right, and this is the place to be. I just hope to God that Spencer doesn't try any fancy tactics and holds her up in a race where she's the most likely pacemaker. The last time he was on-board, he set out to make all and went off at a good clip, getting everyone else off the bridle and they were still going along significantly better than the rest inside the final 2 furlongs, before fading into a three length 2nd having found zilch off the bridle. Similar tactics will have to be used here to gain victory and I'm playing medium sized stakes on that happening. She has a lot more ability than she's given credit for and the 9/2 available is much too big, even though it's not normally a price I'd be too keen to take about most horses. Personally, I think she should be around the 3/1 mark and the current favourite should be no less than 5's. It all depends on fitness but she was readied last twice and will hopefully be in a similar vein this time around. This is my only bet of the day and one with quite solid claims. Fingers crossed!

Letyourselfgo

Nice pick xpyro and I agree about space station, actually thinking of laying him for a place @ 1.83, any thoughts.

slookie

Did he hang on!!!!!!!

johnny_cash

Well done pyro now it's time to follow this log

slookie

slookie wrote: »

Did he hang on!!!!!!!

Yaaaaaaaaaa nice one!!!!! Good man Pyro!

thesandeman

Here We Go
Here We Go Here We Go.........

FOXFISH1

ya beautay!!!! ...well done x PyRo

woodyg

return off the mac
nice pick

3ndahalfof6

cheers sir, well worked out.

x PyRo

Cheers everyone. What a difference a change of code makes! Delighted with that, just for confidence as much as anything. She won a shade cosily (even though the margin suggests not!) so I'd keep an eye on her again, assuming there's any sort of price available. Definitely more to come from her if she doesn't go crazy like she did last year!

Roll on the flat season. I loveeeee it!

+13.5pts today.

oddo

well done

martineatworld

Nice one!

/subscribes

iggy

Well done Pyro.
A few more would be nice :-)

seklly

Followed ya on this with a few quid, good man!!

UrbanSea

Well done Pyro,well deserved.

mjth2004

Fair play Pyro - some funds into my pocket coming to the weekend!

x PyRo

Cheers everyone. Hopefully some more to come soon.

3:20 Musselburgh - Verinco - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Disappointing during his 2 & 3 year old campaigns but really got his act together last year, winning 3 times in all and showing plenty of speed when given the chance to strut his stuff over the minimum distance. Verinco was previously campaigned mainly over 6 furlongs, but failed to see out his races. However, since being dropped to 5 furlongs (and the application of a visor) on turf last year, he has form reading ; 1-5-2-4-5-1-1-5-3, generally proving consistent, even as he moved up the weights. He was originally rated 83 as a 2 year old and I'm sure bigger things were expected from this €50,000 purchase, but he failed to deliver on initial promise. He began 2010 racing around Southwell off a mark of 57 before putting in a couple of decent efforts in low level 5 furlongs contests. Verinco then went to Ripon in April for his seasonal turf debut, running off a mark of 60. He raced handy on the stands side, showing good pace before staying on to score a shade cosily to gain his first win at the 21st attempt. He disappointed next time out under a 4lb rise at Nottingham, before going on to finish a good second over this C&D. He was just behind Chosen One, who's a 25/1 shot here, and traded at 1.01 in running. It looked likely (obviously I suppose!) that he'd win that day but he just couldn't hold on despite having a length on the field inside the final furlong.

Two relatively poor efforts followed, before he notched up a double, the first of which was a small margin win at Hamilton on good ground off a mark of 65, where he showed a good attitude to hold-on, despite using up a fair bit of energy to get over to the stands rail from a poor draw. Verinco was then upped 3lbs and repeated that result to score easily at Carlisle, this time on soft ground. He made all down the middle of the track and was 4 lengths clear a furlong from home before landing the spoils with a bit in hand. That was rated as a then career best run and he showed a liking for soft ground, which he hadn't encountered too often previously. He had two final runs for the season, the first of which came at Beverley on good ground. He looked pretty sure to win a furlong from home, where he traded at 1/5 in running after scooting 4 length away from the field, but his fuel tank emptied very quickly and he faded into a 3.5 length 5th, failing to achieve the hat-trick. Two weeks later, another 5 furlong sprint at Beverley was the aim, from a 1lb higher mark than he faces today. Verinco ran a cracker to finish 3rd, but he didn't respond to pressure too well (ran around) and possibly wasn't suited by getting taken on early by the trail-blazing Mayoman, who somehow managed to sustain his effort throughout to win. My selection lost 2nd in the final strides but still done exceptionally well to finish 1.5 lengths behind the winner and posted another career best, on good-to-soft ground.

The ground will be on the soft side of good today, which is perfect, and he's also very well drawn in stall 10. He doesn't need to get the lead to win and there are a couple of likely contenders for that, but he has more than enough early speed to get out in-front and attempt to make every post a winning one. Adam Carter, who has formed an exceptional record on this animal, is very good from the front and takes off a handy 5lbs to leave Verinco carrying just 8st 10lbs. Whilst the horse is running in this grade for the first time since tackling nursery's, he could well have more to come and has run more recently than most of his rivals, having run 66 days ago at Southwell, where he looked a possible winner at one stage before fading into a 4 length 9th place. He's trained by Bryan Smart, who has his yard in good knick of late and boasts a fine 24% strike rate here in the last 5 years (105 runners, 25 wins) and an impressive LSP of +£77. He's clearly a man worth following up at this track, to which he has a 350 mile round trip. Carter has 1 win and a 2nd from just 4 runs here and comes up for just 2 rides, of which this may be the best. Verinco seems to love sharp tracks, and combining that with ease in the ground, I fancy him to run a cracker here. He kept on improving last year and this mark of 73 could prove below his true abilities and he's still relatively unexposed at this trip on turf. Of the remainder, my old friend, Oldjoesaid, has exceptionally good claims on his old form, but he's too short (6/1) for me to get involved with and I've already invested a fair amount in him last year, where he was given some shocking rides by my mate Jamie Spencer. However, a galloping track may be what he's after and he'll do well to make up ground around here if continuing with the hold-up tactics of last year. His yard are also 2 from 65 with runners older than 4 around here, which is enough to make me avoid. Ignatieff was another one who interested me, but the lack of a very good jockey put me off, as the one on board tomorrow has never had a winner. The horse does have bundles of speed though, and could well set out to make all, but he's entitled to need the run and may need better ground off his current mark. He is 16/1 though and may be worthy of a stake saver. Cases can be made for nearly all of the field, but at the prices, Verinco may be worth siding with once again. He's 12/1 at the moment, and that's a very nice price given his performances last season. If fully wound up, he'll be very tough to catch if he gets out in front and one of the three available places beckons if things pan out. He's talented, speedy, game and has all the attributes to improve again. Whether he's up to the task here is yet to be seen, but I like how he goes about business and I think he's overlooked in the betting. 8/1 would be sufficient, as one bookmaker currently offers, and I'll play small each-way stakes on him gaining victory here. There's no point playing any bigger here as it's a tough heat, but one he can get competitive in.

x PyRo

Early one for tomorrow.

(The Lincoln Handicap - Saturday)

3:10 Doncaster - Prince Of Dance - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes - NRNB, 4 places)

Reasoning to follow. If it rains and the ground comes up on the soft side of good, this price could be made to look ridiculous. May still have another bet in this race.

Letyourselfgo

Very well put together, I have a tenner on him at 14s, I broke the race down to 4 contenders but couldn't seperate them any more so your the deciding factor

fkiely

You know what they say mate, form is temporary, class is permanent. Glad to see you off the mark with the new season.

x PyRo

Ahhh, nearly! Landed on a gamble and he went off 6/1. Finished a gallant second in the end, just caught by the Fallon drive.

Still, I'm feelin' it lads, I'm feckin' feeling it again.

Juwwi

x PyRo wrote: »

Ahhh, nearly! Landed on a gamble and he went off 6/1. Finished a gallant second in the end, just caught by the Fallon drive.

Still, I'm feelin' it lads, I'm feckin' feeling it again.

Unlucky on the bright side tho at least it was'nt Oldjoesaid who won it.

thesandeman

Was seriously backed all right.
Youre def back in form.
If the Prince puts up a show tomorrow youll have fought your demons.

blindpilot

Nice one Pyro. Did it each way. A fine start to my long weekend!:D

3ndahalfof6

N1 sir, I did EW singles on both of your picks and EW double so here is hoping,

but were well in at the moment, I got the 3:20 pick at 12s and tomorrows pick at 33s.

best of luck.

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Nice on Pyro! Had it ew.

Joekers

Cheers Pyro had it e/w and have it in a e/w double with the prince tomorrow

budgemook

noice one, did it e/w at 12's so doubled my money

x PyRo

Cheers lads. Personally, the money returns don't even matter too much to me at the moment. The confidence from getting things half-right is way more valuable long term and I really think this could be a good year. Even though I done horrific over the winter, I've picked up a few other things and know a lot more than I used to, so fingers crossed it'll give myself, and anyone who back anything, some monies.

It's a bit sad, but I'm buzzing*! Spend too long getting everything wrong. Tomorrow could be shocking mind, but long-term, I think it'll all be OK.

*


Buzzzz. :pac:

robbie1977 wrote: »

Unlucky on the bright side tho at least it was'nt Oldjoesaid who won it.

Thanks God he didn't, or else the whisky, tissues and shotgun would be out! :pac: