PyRo's Horse Bets.

thesandeman

40s best price with bookies for tomorrow now.
My 5k must have made a difference lol.
I see Aidans has come in a few points as well. Wonder are Boardsies affecting the odds?

x PyRo

God knows. Plenty of people read the log section though so it could well be. :pac:

+2.00pts yesterday. Sounds small but it was a 100% ROI!!

(The Spring Mile Handicap - 2:05 Doncaster)

I'm taking on a couple here, mainly concentrating on the young potential improver's who are likely to go well fresh. The first horse I'm backing is the William Jarvis trained Oriental Scot, who has disappointed on occasion but doesn't seem to take his races too well and could be best when caught fresh. He's a big, strong, galloping type, who is likely to be suited by a truly run mile and I think he's somewhat overlooked in the betting having flopped in a similarly hot contest when last seen. However, I'm putting that form down as clearly not being his true running, as it was just 2 weeks after winning at Thirsk and seemed to come much too soon for well-bred son of Selkirk. His trainer recently said that he has wintered very well and is pretty fit, so combining that with his overall fresh record should see another good performance from this impressively sculpted animal. His penultimate start, over a mile at Thirsk, resulted in a 3 length win off a 7lb lower mark than what he faces today. It was a visually impressive performance from Oriental Scot, who had disappointed on his two previous runs despite holding every chance inside the final couple of furlongs.

However, after disappointing, he was given a 50 day break before landing the spoils at Thirsk, and freshening him up seems to be the key, as his only previous win from 8 attempts was on the back of a 136 day absence. He hasn't run since the middle of September, where he tackled 1m 2f for the first time, but flattered to deceive once again having failed to pick up when asked for an effort. He's bred to be suited by further, and does shape as if it'd suit, but I find the return to 1 mile interesting and I think that this is his trip when they go a good gallop, which should be assured here. Even though he picked up so well at Thirsk, I think he was flattered by the second horse (and the rest previously) having nothing else to give, and my selections stamina was the key in him extending so easily. He seems like the type who could grind out the finish to his races if they go quick enough and he travels very well, so ticks most of the boxes in what I want here. If the fractions aren't quick enough and it turns into a sprint, then he could well be beaten out of sight, but if they go quick enough early enough and he gets into his stride, I can picture him staying on strongly to finish in the places at least. Stevie Drowne takes the ride on him for the first time, and he's a jockey I've a significant amount of time for. He's done me numerous favours in the past and boasts a fine 21% strike-rate for William Jarvis, with a LSP of +33.94p. Drowne also has a fine record over the Doncaster mile, with 14% of his 42 mounts winning and a +25 LSP. Oriental Scot is currently 20/1 with 5 places being paid, which is a perfectly acceptable price and I'll have a tentatively small each-way bet on him doing the business. He's a horse of much talent and this may well be the time to catch him. He's drawn OK and the ground should pose no problems, despite having won on quicker surfaces before. The track is made for him and if he can get himself together early, he could cause a shock at a nice price. I wouldn't have him any bigger than 12/1 if I was an odds-complier and this lightly campaigned (8 runs total) animal seems to be overlooked too easily.

My next selection is another one who has raced only 8 times and is also a 4 year old. It's Andrew Balding's Highland Knight, who does have his quirks, but could be another up to running well fresh as he done last season. He had 1 run as a 2 year old in October of 09, before reappearing the following May in a hot maiden, in which he finished a close up 2nd to Man Of Action, a horse who has since won off 88 and finished 2nd off 96 in his only 2 runs since. The overall form of that race is hardly awe-inspiring, but the first 3 home were decent animals and it's reasonably solid. My selection was reported to have hung left that day, which didn't help, but it was a very good run all things considered and shows that he can be readied first time out. It was also run over 7 furlongs, which is shy of his optimum. He reappeared 1 week later in a Lingfield maiden over a mile on the all-weather, in which he sluiced up by 4.5 lengths having went off the 6/5 favourite. However, that was a poor contest and the form isn't worthwhile, but he still showed a tidy turn of foot to score having made all from a poor draw. 4 weeks later, Highland Knight contested his first handicap, off a mark of 87 (runs off 88 here). Oddly enough, he was edging left once again early on, but ran straight when under pressure, but despite being sent off the 3/1 favourite, he could only manage a respectable 5th place, 2.25 lengths behind the winner Sea Lord, a Group 3 winners since, when rated 115. The form of that race looks alright, and my selection ran below par in my opinion, suggesting he may be capable of his jumping above his current mark. He flopped next time out, possibly not appreciating the right-handed course and being brought into the lead halfway to home didn't help. A much better effort followed next time out, when going left-handed around Haydock over a mile on soft ground. He hung badly left again but was hampered 2 furlongs from home, and showed a determined attitude to run on under pressure, despite never going the pace to trouble the leaders.

Highland Knight was raised a pound for that effort and returned to go right-handed once again. However, he ran a cracker this time considering how unlucky he was in running. Despite racing handy, he couldn't get a run 2 furlongs out, was switched left just over a furlong out, got badly hampered twice, dropped to second last position, then ran on to pass 3 more animals and finish a gallant 2.75 length 6th place. It was an eventful race for Andrew Balding's then 3 year old and he was oh so unlucky not to place, if not won. A career best run then followed, as Highland Knight ran a gallant 0.75 length 5th behind Sarrsar, who is a very useful animal. My selection set out to make the running along the stands rail, but he was joined by the winner inside the final furlong before getting swamped by 3 fast-finishing horses inside the final 100 yards. He went left under pressure again but showed that good attitude to try and keep up to his work, but it wasn't to be. The soft ground combined with the 1m 1f trip took it's toll and he ended 2010 without any wins, having performed well on the majority of the runs. However, since then he has been gelded, and this could well help Highland Knight to avoid those costly quirks and continue his progression. The ground is likely to be Good, possibly on the slow side, and that's perfect. He seems equally good on all ground and he's well drawn in stall 3. He'll race handy, which is perfect in these big field handicaps and I quite like David Probert on front-runners. He takes the ride on this fellow for the first time, and Probert has 4 places from 12 runs for this trainer at Doncaster, 2 of those coming in similarly field big handicaps. His overall strike rate for Balding is an impressive 15% and they show a profit to level stakes. Probert's riding exceptionally well of late, the yard are in amazing form, and this is the only ride/runner for both. The horse is unexposed, talented, suited to conditions and bound to get a bit of luck. He could well be a fair bit better having been gelded and this mark may not be beyond him, if he gets some luck. The current price of 16/1 is generous in my opinion, and I'd expect it won't be available come race time. 5 places are being paid with the bookmaker that price is with, and I fancy him to grab one of them, although not as much as my other selection, who I'm putting slightly bigger stakes on. There's too many dangers to list, so I won't, but I couldn't touch anything in single figures, especially as this race has only been won by single figure runners on 2 occasions in the last 10 runnings. 4 year olds have also won 7 of the last 10 runnings. It'll take a lot of luck to get the winner of this, but with the two I've selected, I could get lucky enough.

Selections -

Oriental Scot - 1.50pts e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill - 5 places)
Highland Knight - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill - 5 places)

x PyRo

(The Cammidge Trophy - Listed Race)

2:35 Doncaster - Brave Prospector - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (VC)

This horse wants to gallop in behind a good pace and I'm hopeful that he'll get that here. He has a few lbs to find with some of the runners, but he's a high class sprinter on his day and comes here in decent knick having run on the all-weather throughout the winter. Brave Prospector is a strong travelling type, who is best suited by franticly run races, and whilst he may not get exactly that, there's enough potential pace on here to suggest that it'll be run at a decent clip. He's relatively exposed having run a total of 24 times and now that he's 6, significant improvement is unlikely, but he has become much more consistent since joining Jane Chapple-Hyam's yard in November, having moved from her ex-husband's yard randomly enough! Jane has done well with him in the 5 runs he's had for her, in which he's gained 1 win and 2 places (inc at Listed level). He hasn't been beaten further than 4.75 lengths and even then he was unlucky in running. Brave Prospector has run exceptionally well at Group 3 level on 3 occasions, with 2 places and a close up 5th. Many of the experts say he's not up to this level, and has had too many chances, but I don't buy into that. Some of his efforts were filled with promise that he could land a similar race, and this doesn't look like an exceptionally hard race to win, as I can only make good claims for a few of them and they lack recent runs. Pace is key to this fellow and I'm quite sure that he'll blow his chances if it's not quick from the off, but I think his price is too good to turn down.

The Chapple-Hyam yard are in excellent form of late, with 5 wins from their last 20 runners and many others placing or running respectably. The yard are 0-24 here in the last 5 seasons but boast the jockey booking of the in-form Jamie Spencer, who has two 2nd places and a 3rd from 6 rides at Doncaster for this yard. He also seems to be their "go to" guy when they want a winner, as their 14 wins from 58 runner (24% SR) record suggests, with a further 19 finishing 2nd or 3rd. Whilst I'm by no means Spencer's biggest fan, he can do things spectacularly well at times and he knows Brave Prospector well, having ridden him on 5 occasions since September of '09, with form reading ; 1-3-3-2-4, gaining that win here at Doncaster over an extended 6 furlongs. Spencer has a 33% strike rate in the past 2 weeks, including some very good rides and he was also on this fellow last time out. They finished 4th of 12 over this trip at Lingfield, just half a length behind Waveband in the same grade as this. My selection held every chance that day and traveled supremely once more. However, the contest was won from the front under a smart ride from Martin Dywer, who slowed it down and quickened up at all the right times. This forced the race to turn into a sprint as they turned for home and Brave Prospector is not suited by that one bit. Though he did show his wellbeing to finish a half length behind the winner despite not having it run to suit. This 6 furlong contest on a flat galloping straight track is ideal though, and none of that should happen if I've judged the pace right. So I fail to see how he's judged as a 14/1 shot when he's clearly running as well as ever despite not having everything pan out for him. That's why he doesn't win as often as he should but if he's on his game here today, a top 3 position beckons and possibly even victory. He handles all ground too and based on the draw bias site, he's soundly drawn in stall 14, even though I was of the opinion that low was better but who knows! Another thing is his owners recent record. He's owned by Dr Marwan Koukash, who has had 72 runners this year so far. A staggering 21 winners have come his way already including 23 further places. He's running with a 29% strike rate and a LSP of +£18 also. Whilst it matters not in terms of the race, and the vast majority have been on the all-weather, it's still interesting. This is also one of his better animals, so I'm sure they'll be keen on picking up the £17k pot for the winner, before going on for some more cracks at Group level. The horse owes me nothing, as I plowed into him for his last win at Wolverhampton, and I'm siding with him to gain his first win in a stakes race. 14/1 looks generous and I'm playing medium each-way stakes in the hope that he'll at least place. Of the rest, Bated Breath is interesting but may come on for the run and Royal Rock is another who could get involved, for all that he is out of form. At the prices I'll stick with Brave Prospector, who will need a solid gallop to win, but could get that with some luck.

x PyRo

Previously posted.

(The Lincoln Heritage Handicap)

3:10 Doncaster - Prince Of Dance - 1pt e/w @ 50/1 (Ladbrokes)

At the time I posted this I was hoping the heavens would open and it would rain a lot, but alas, that hasn't happened. However, Prince Of Dance still has a squeak at a nice price and could return to form now that he'll get a truly run mile for the first time since he tackled Paco Boy in a Group 1, where he hadn't a hope to begin with. He's obviously had his problems, but he shaped as if being a highly talented individual after winning his first 3 career starts, when trained by Tom Dascombe. His first win was a 4 length demolition of a maiden field over 7 furlongs at Newbury in May of '09. He came back lame from that race and wasn't seen again until October. However, he was well-backed on his comeback in a class 2 handicap off a mark of 94, which looked a tough task for him. The race was run at an awfully slow pace early on, which wasn't ideal at all but when the pace quickened, so did he, before running out a comfortable 1.75 length winner, with Prime Exhibit finishing back in 2nd place despite carrying 6lbs less than my selection for todays race. That horse has improved significantly since but he's deemed a 9/1 shot here and if Prince Of Dance could return to anything like his old self, he could laugh at the 50/1 he was available for the other day, especially as he has dropped to the exact same mark of 94, having been rated 108 at one stage. His next run was on similar ground to what he'll face today and despite pulling extremely hard early on as the pace was so slow, he ran out an extremely game winner (by a head) from the likes of Shaweel (rated 119 at peak, 115 at the time) and Bushman, a Group 3 winner two starts later and rated 110 when last seen. My selection had 15lbs to find with the former and 5lbs with the latter, and despite the race panning out all wrong for a horse who needs a good gallop, he won in impressive fashion.

Dascombe's yard went out of form big time and Prince Of Dance didn't return until April of 2010, this time in a Group 2 contest. He didn't go unbacked either but performed poorly and finished well behind Paco Boy, with the ground proving too quick for him. He met the winner again next time and showed a bit more but couldn't pick up on even faster ground, before subsequently leaving Dascombe's yard for Jeremy Gask's. He showed nothing there but was campaigned over 6 & 7 furlongs, which is shy of his optimum and having run 4 times for them, he was sold out of the yard for 58,000 GNS. He's now with Tom Tate and made his reappearance at Wolverhampton in a trail for this race. Prince Of Dance traveled well enough but seemed to get outpaced quite easily before dropping away tamely enough. however, he wasn't given a hard time of it and I doubt they were overly worried about winning that race, with other targets likely to be in the offing. He was fancied for this race last year at one stage but would of carried too much weight I'd imagine. Now that he runs off 94, the same mark as his 2nd ever run, and also has the unknown of what his trainer could unlock. The horse will thrive on a truly run race and if it's true about the ground running slightly on the slow side of good, then that may suffice. I thought at the time 50's were much too big and it's still available on the exchange, but there has been a few quid for him with some bookmakers if the market moves are to be believed. He could still outrun his price-tag and I really think this horse could get back to his best over a truly run mile. Whether his Wolves run was a true reflection of his current abilities is yet to be seen, but assuming it wasn't, he could knick one of the 4 places here. Ted Durcan takes the ride and it's an odd enough booking for this yard. He's 2 from 6 (33%) for Tate and rarely ever gets a ride for him. It's an odd enough one but he's a decent enough jockey at times. Too many dangers to go through again but I fancy Prince Of Dance to run a big one if he shows any of his old sparkle. He was touted as a potential Group winner and surely hasn't declined that much considering he's only 5. Minimal each-way stakes on my final bet of the day.

x PyRo

Oriental Scot finished very well in his race, but ran on too late and could only manage 7th. He finished 2nd of 13 in his group, so he'll definitely be of interest over a truly run mile. He was on the side with a lot less early pace, ran keenly, so it wasn't ideal and I reckon it was a good run.

Highland Knight ran alright. Finished 13th, 6th in his group, and done OK. He'll come on for that run and could get his in-front of one of these big races this year. Would be nice if he got some leeway from the handicapper though.

Brave Prospector was the Nap, and the one I thought would win mid-run. He loomed large just over a furlong out and held every chance, but couldn't kick on when he got his head in-front. However, he held on to 3rd place to return some cash. I'm still a bit disappointed though, as I thought he'd kick on but it could be worse. Each-way money @ 14's will do though.

Prince Of Dance was nowhere of note. I'll look at the race again later and see how it unfolded, because I couldn't see him at all.

-2pts on the day. Could of been a lot worse, but could of been better too.

Overall Bank - 224.32pts (+124.32pts)

2011 Flat Stats -

P/L - +10.50pts

Bets - 7
Wins - 1
Placed - 2
Win SR - 14%
Staked - 19.00pts
Returned - 29.50pts
ROI - 55%

3ndahalfof6

Yes sir the place keeps things on the right side of the fence, you were unlucky, it is one to keep the eye on for sure.

The places will keep us going till the wins come, thank you once again.

x PyRo

Cheers dude. Fingers crossed there'll be another winner soon. Quite happy with how I staked Saturday's bets and I think the coming week could be a good one with a bit of luck.

2:45 Doncaster - Ursula - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

A truly run 6 furlongs seems to be this mares optimum and the same can't be said over this 7 furlong trip. However, I can see this being run slowly enough early on and turning into a bit of a sprint towards the end, which could play into Ursula's hands assuming she doesn't take a pull early on. The majority of her best form and wins have come on galloping tracks, including when running away with a competitive 6f contest here at Doncaster in June of '09, from a 4lb lower mark. That was a soundly run race, in which she picked up very stylishly when asked for an effort, despite meeting a bit of trouble in running. Ursula had a fair bit to do to catch Russian Spirit, who got first run on my selection and it looked a near impossible task a furlong from home, but the turn of foot from Elaine Burke's charge (then trained by husband Karl) was exceptional and she went on to score by 1.75 lengths. The filly in second has since improved significantly, last seen winning off a mark of 85 over 6f here, beating horses rated in the 100's. The form is hardly relevant now but that horse had beaten Penitent in her previous race, although that was a maiden and not relevant either! Interesting none the less.

Ursula is unexposed over this trip, having only run over it on 5 occasions, with suitable conditions not falling too often. Today, she has everything to suit and the only worry would be how forward Elaine Burke has her mare at this stage of the season. However, she readied a horse from a similar break to win easily yesterday at this course and will hopefully have this 5 year old in similar form. They've had 2 winners and a place from just 6 runners here at Doncaster and given this horse's previous liking for the course, I'm of the opinion that the Burke yard could add to that. Andrew Elliot, who takes the ride, has 3 wins, a 3rd and two 4th's on board Ursula, from just 8 rides. He obviously knows how to get a good tune out of this animal and with ground conditions, draw, handicap mark and how the race is likely to pan out being likely to suit, I think she can outrun her 20/1 price tag. She's a very game animal who responds well to pressure when things are run to suit and I don't think this trip is against her at all, as she's bred to appreciate further and has seen out some of her races over this distance quite well. I could have the pace angle all wrong, but I reckon that El Dececy will set out to make all at a modest early pace, before attempting to quicken it up a couple of furlongs from home. If Ursula can get covered up and travel like she can, then I think the extra distance on a track like this, in a race run like this, could be ideal. It's guesswork to a certain extent but she ran over 7f at Wolverhampton on her AW debut, and finished fast on the back of a pace no more than decent. That was judged to be a career best run (off 3lbs higher then) and she's better suited to slower surfaces than that at Wolverhampton. I'd say she'd of won that race with a clear passage too and it's quite clear to see that she could well have a future over this trip. This isn't an overly strong heat in my opinion and I think she could be handicapped to strike again, despite being 2lbs above her last winning mark. 20/1 is about double what I think she should be, but I could have the race called all wrong so I'm only playing minimal each-way stakes. It's a worry how she'll turn up first time out but she has run well after a longer break before and could run into one of the currently available 4 places. Although if one horse drops out, we'll be down to 3 places. It's 11/2 the field, so it's a very open contest, but one she could be up to winning if on song. Imperial Djay is another one who could run well for a stable I think will find the winners enclosure more often now that they're back racing on turf, but I'm slightly concerned about her current rating. She is 16/1 though, so could be worthy of a small e/w stake-saver.

x PyRo

3:20 Doncaster - Fibs And Flannel - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Has had his problems but talented, lightly raced and previously looked progressive, so may well prove to be significantly overpriced here in what looks to be a modest enough contest. Fibs And Flannel disappointed last thrice, but I believe he had valid excuses every time. First up was a mile contest around Warwick, where they crawled early doors and that wasn't ideal at all, as I reckon he'll need a truly run race to show his best, which he hasn't really gotten yet. His next 2 runs were down to the ground, which was heavy, then soft, on testing tracks. He ran exceptionally flat both times and they certainly weren't true reflections of his ability. Before that sequence, he had notched up a double of race wins. The first of which was a fast ground contest at Beverley over 7 furlongs, where he won a shade cosily off a mark of 64 but had to make his own running as they went so slow early on. Ten days later, he beat a decent type in Dolphin Rock, in a similarly run race but the way in which he cruised into contention and cheekily went away from the second horse was impressive. He was barely touched nor pushed out and the way in which he won suggested that he'd go on to bigger things but he failed to do so. The handicapper has given him some leeway by bringing him back to just 3lbs above his last winning mark and that may be enough to get him back into contention in a race like this, especially where there's numerous potential pace makers.

A mile is probably his ideal trip, but a truly run 7f on a galloping track may suffice, especially considering how well he can travel mid-race. Fibs And Flannel could potentially have anything from half a stone upwards in hand and I'd fancy him to land a nice race this year. Fitness needs to be taken on trust, but the yard had a nice 18/1 winner yesterday, which won easily following a longer break than todays runner faces. He's trained by Tim Easterby, who has done me good turns in the past and is a yard I like to keep an eye on. They don't boast a great record around here at all but this horse is yet to really get things to suit yet and I think he could prove even better around this track. Duran Fentiman takes the reins, and he's a jockey I quite like, despite his stats being unimpressive. He rode Fibs And Flannel to an 18/1 second on his seasonal bow last year, where he was staying on rapidly having come into the straight in last place. That was the only time Duran was on this 4 year old and a similar result would suffice! He's soundly drawn in stall 10, should have ground to suit, a race run to suit, and a decent chance of filling one of the 4 available places, but as like the other races, one drop out means one less place. Magic Cat, Mastership and Dubai Dynamo all interested me at prices too, so I'm only playing minimal each-way stakes once again. The 20/1 price-tag is too good to turn down and I think he's up to making a mockery of that if coming back into himself. He has had problems with his shins in the past though, so he does come with some risk surrounding his wellbeing, but I doubt the trainer would run him if he wasn't sound. It's they're only runner of the day too, and the jockeys only ride. Hopefully they make it count.

x PyRo

Ursula was quite poor and I called that all wrong. I thought she raced too handily to be seen at her best but she was way off the standard regardless. The other one I liked, Impreial Djay, ran very well to finish 4th but I'm delighted I didn't back her, because one horse dropped out to leave only 3 places being paid. He went off at 28/1 too, which would of been a double kick had he placed, as the odds were much too big compared to what I considered fair. He should land a nice race this year given how he finished here and I'll back him at some stage.

Fibs And Flannel was a disappointment too but was only 5 lengths off the pace in 10th place and should come on for the run. I'll definitely be on him again, especially if he lines out at Hamilton. Seemed to love it when he went there.

-4pts on the day.

3:40 Windsor - Guilded Warrior - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)

All five runnings of this race have been landed by 4 year olds, and with only three in the field you'd think I'd be going for one of them but I think that trend could be broken here with the trailblazing Guilded Warrior, who is a lively 8 year old. He holds no aces up his sleeve in terms of handicaps but he seems at his best when dominating inferior opposition in small fields and that's exactly what he gets here. As of this moment, only 8 will be lining up here and although Stuart Kittow's charge has one competitor for the lead, I think he can make all to land the spoils like he did when dominating a 6 runner field over C&D last June. He led at a good pace and repelled all rivals, including one pretty strong challenge, to score from a few useful sorts. Guilded Warrior won by 2.75 lengths, under the same jockey that's on board today and having flopped on his last 5 runs, he's now back to the same mark as when landing the spoils on similarly fast ground that day at Windsor. His last 5 runs have been on softer ground, which he has handled in the past but has never defied a mark that high on it. The lead was also unattainable on 3 of those outings and it's a tough task for him off high marks if he can't dominate. All of those were in class 3 handicaps too, and he drops to class 4 for the first time since beating a useful type in Lochan Mor first time up last season, on soft ground but over 7 furlongs.

Guilded Warrior seems to be a different animal when first time up and fresh, with his first time up record in handicaps throughout the years reading an impressive looking ; 3-1-2-3-1, which obviously shows that he's a good horse to try and catch when fresh. Despite being 8 year old, he put in what was judged to be a career best at this course last year, and I think that it's an ideal place for him, as his C&D record reads ; 2-4-1, with the worst of those performances coming when Fergus Sweeney wasn't on board. Sweeney seems to be the key for this animal, as he has run 46 times in his career, gaining 8 wins. However, Sweeney has only ridden him on 26 occasions, which is a lot, but when you consider that his overall record reads - 7 wins, 2 seconds, 3 thirds and 2 fourths with Sweeney on board, it really proves that he's the only man who can unlock the door for this animal, who has only won once from 20 rides when Sweeney hasn't been on board. Guilded Warrior ran 9 times in all last season, and it was no real surprise to see his form tail off towards the end of it, as it has happened before and he's probably at his best in the early months of the seasons, even though he only won once in between landing races in September of '08 and April 2010. He's trained by Stuart Kittow, who had 4 winners from 15 runners at this track last year and can clearly ready this animal to run well first time up. He's only had 3 runners this year, all on the NH scene but did have a winner back in January with a horse having his racecourse debut. They had a very good 2010, with 14 winners from 129 runners (11%), which was a career high number of winners for the Devon based trainer. Kittow and Sweeney boast a fine 15% strike rate on the flat, showing a £25 LSP from 178 runners, which ain't half bad at all. Their record at Windsor is even better, with a 20% strike rate over all and a £24.50p LSP with a ROI of 98%. They've had a total of 25 runners here, with 5 winners, 4 seconds and 4 thirds, which is a remarkable record for a yard that doesn't boast an overly high strike rate. Now back to the horse - another thing that I found interesting was Guilded Warrior's form when running in races with 9 or less runners. With his overall form in this scenario reading ; 1-3-4-1-1-1-2-2-3-6-4-2-1-1-5-8, which is impressive given that 6 of his 7 career wins have come in situations that have only come up on 16 times during a 46 race career.

The horse who'll be likely to challenge for the lead is Alastair Lidderdale's 7 year old, Kilburn. However, he doesn't necessarily need to lead (nor does my selection mind) and would be contented with a good gallop, which my selection will provide if left alone up front, which is possible. That horse is a 5/1 shot here, but he's 11lbs higher than his career best turf win and although he has run well on the AW of late and is in good knick, I couldn't go near him at the price considering he's a much better animal on the all-weather, unless he's progressed significantly, which is unlikely given his age. He's the only other C&D winner in the field, but certainly not one I'd get involved with, even though he has claims. Kingsdine is the likely favourite, and wrongfully so in my opinion. He's a better animal on soft ground and although he's progressive, young and an impressive winner when last seen, he's 10lbs higher now, running on quick ground, up in trip and is entitled to need the run. His yard also have a poor record here and a relatively sharp track may not play into his hooves. I just couldn't go near him at the 7/2 he is now and I'd rather place lay him truth be told. I could be way off the mark, but there's enough reason to believe that he'll be up against it here. Recent all-weather runner Yes Chef is another with claims but too short a price for an animal who looks reluctant to go past horses. He has a certain amount of ability and potential, but there's too much not to like about him and he could be outclassed here. First Post was the next one I liked, but I don't think the race will pan out to suit and he looks quite one paced. He could well grind it out as he seems to have a very willing attitude but he's 6lbs higher that his last win and may not be best suited to this track (despite having form here over further). He's obviously talented but I think he'll struggle if they go quick enough up front as he does look quite one paced at times. He has a chance though and I may regret not having a saver on him. The three other bigger priced animals in the race (all around 9 or 10/1) have claims too, but for one reason or another I can't back them. I feel that Guilded Warrior should be the favourite here and I feel the market's all wrong. He should get things run to suit, he's attractively handicapped, game, talented, has loads of early speed, likes the track, loves the jockey, goes well fresh and likes to dominate inferior rivals. He gets it all to suit here today and if he's readied, he'll go very well. 5/2-3/1 would be my idea of his true price and if it wasn't such an open heat, I'd play maximum stakes, but given that it's early in the season and there's no recent form to go on, I'll play it a bit safer and use medium stakes. I really think he has a huge chance if running to his best and his best is usually when fresh.

x PyRo

4:40 Windsor - Taurus Twins - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (VC)

Short write-up, getting tired! A poor draw which is a big worry but this horse is exceptionally quick on his day and could go very well at a price if he can break out smartly to get a handy position. Whilst those drawn low hold the advantage if they're prominent racers, the potential front-runners are drawn middle-to-high, which increases Taurus Twins chance of getting a good position. He has exceptional early speed and bowls along in-front quite nicely when given the opportunity. Whilst he does face competition for the lead, and lots of it, he could still be good enough to get involved here with conditions ideal for him. He was a 4 time winner at 3, proving most progressive in blinkers on similar ground to what he faces today. He's ideally suited to sharp tracks having won at both Southwell and Musselburgh, so he should have no problems here (has run OK over C&D on 2 occasions). Tom Queally takes the ride on this fellow and there's no better man to have on board. He is 2 from 14 for Richard Price and has had some very nice priced winners here at Windsor. The two wins he's had for Price came at prices of 9/1 & 20/1, so he could add to that here with a 14/1 shot. Taurus Twins is yet to win a race this tough (0-85), but he had looked on the upgrade before failing to win in his 4 year old season and now that he's had a recent run (where things didn't pan out), he could go very well as he has previously needed a run to get into top form. His trainer said it has taken him some time to get used to the racing game but he's got faster and faster as he went along and this test should be right up his alley. He's also effective over 6 furlongs. The handicapper has given him some leeway and he's now on his last winning mark. Luck in running early on will be key, but if he can get a nice position at the head of affair, he'll be hard caught. Minimal each-way bet but with 4 places being paid, he could knick one of them at least. He goes well in big fields too, which is a plus and he's got a top jockey on board. Queally only has 2 rides, the other would be considered to have very little hope and this is Price's only runner of the day.

thesandeman

Hugh gone for GW as well :-o

3hn2givr7mx1sc

GW was 11/4 an hour ago, he's now 9/2.

x PyRo

He jinxes me every time.

cup of tea

fantastic call on Tauras Twins. got him at 16's pity I didn't have more on it.

x PyRo

SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED!

Lovely. He's so game and so bloody fast. Hero.

16/1 too.

budgemook

Beauty

OutlawPete

Well done XP, had him small e/w.

"Time is the one immutable truth in the game" - Beyer.

Best of luck with the rest of the flat season too.

clived2

Pyro,

you will have to pm us your address and drink of choice;)

Good Win

3ndahalfof6

x PyRo wrote: »

SPEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEED!

Lovely. He's so game and so bloody fast. Hero.

16/1 too.

that is crazy I'm just in from work about 30 mins, missed your first pick so stuck a tenner EW on Taurus, 1 min to the off, great stuff thank you once again sir,

the kitty is plenty healthy for the time being, upwards and onwards sir.

x PyRo

Cheers guys. That was some buzz altogether! Delighted and everything seems to be changing for the good. Hope to hell in continues, because it's horrid fun. :pac:

seanhynes

**** it.made a big cock up. folowed ur taurus twins to win and rupert lamb double 36/1 and mistakenly didnt do it each way like i intended too

budgemook

i only got 9/1 on it. somehow i picked the very worst second to back it. thought the price was going to keep coming in so snapped up 9's and then it goes straight out to 16.

Ah well, still pretty happy with the win :-)

EDIT: Actually looks like PP gave me 16's. Woohoo!

x PyRo

Unlucky Sean but nice one Budge. That's the great thing about getting best odds.

thesandeman

Just checked result now. Nice one Pyro. The times they are a changin B-)

jive

nice win i followed you last night when i was absolutely wrecked. Checking the results on teletext there and was like "taurus twins.... sounds familiar" haha nice one. Btw when you say 1 pt e/w is that just 1 pt staked in total or 2 pts? Nooby question but its been bothering me for months i just never bothered asking

x PyRo

Cheers lads. I nearly didn't post that one because I was wrecked!

1pt e/w is 2 points Jive. Pity I didn't just put it on the win. :pac:

3hn2givr7mx1sc

Nice one Pyro ya sexy animal! Backed the insurebet 3 places.:D

markc91

Fair play to Paddys for paying out 16/1 rather than the 10s i got it at

x PyRo

Most bookies do that Mark, don't give the enemy any credit. :pac:

markc91

Haha the main thanks must go to you my man