PyRo's Horse Bets.

UrbanSea

Good man Pyro

3ndahalfof6

x PyRo wrote: »

Most bookies do that Mark, don't give the enemy any credit. :pac:

I agree if you hit 5/6 good results in a row they wont be long telling you, sorry your limit is 2 cent.

Fowler87

Great picking Pyro. Hope it continues!

Derek!

Great stuff today Pyro
I see you do be up till all hours of the morning so I think youd be the man to ask, do you know when the bookmakers usually price up the rest of the races?

x PyRo

Cheers lads.

Derek, any time from 8am onwards. Powers are usually one of the latest if you're betting with them.

Derek!

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers lads.

Derek, any time from 8am onwards. Powers are usually one of the latest if you're betting with them.

Ah no point staying awake then thanks mate

thesandeman

x PyRo

Guilded Warrior was disappointing, but having set such a frantic pace up-front, he was always going to be vulnerable. The race time was 1.75 seconds under standard, helped by the rapid ground and following wind but the gallop at the head of affairs certainly ensured this would be a quick time. He only finished 2 lengths back in 4th place, so it was a decent run but not what I wanted or hoped for.

I thought Taurus Twins had a small chance, hence the stake, but I was very wrong. He had an absolutely huge chance, and despite being friendless in the market, he won like a good thing. The way the track was going, combined with the wind, was always going to suit a front-runner, but as he was drawn in the parking lot, he had to show some very bright early pace to get over and bag the rail. Somehow he done this and scooted clear to score by 2 lengths and broke the track record in the meantime. Brilliant run and a tidy return from a 1pt e/w bet at 16/1. Credit must go to Tom Queally though, the ride was sublime. My man-love for him is ever increasing!

+17pts on a day that restores confidence.

3:10 Pontefract - Satin Love - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (PaddyPower)

Truth be told, I was in two minds over which Johnston horse to side with, as he runs 2 of them and they both look like potential winners. I should probably leave the race alone, but I'll take a small chance on Satin Love, who has the added benefit of Kieren Fallon on board, a man who probably rides this tricky track better than anyone else. The horse himself was slightly disappointing as a 2 year old, but competed in Group and Listed level following an impressive maiden win first time out. However, he'll probably prove to be a better animal in weaker contests and I think that this fits the bill, as he's now beginning to receive plenty of leeway from the handicapper and looks well in off a mark of 82, having contested his first handicap off 95 and ran quite well. The only reason for his current price was a disappointing comeback at Kempton on the all-weather, where despite holding every chance a couple of furlongs from home, he just didn't pick up having pulled hard throughout the first half of the race and he probably had nothing else to give. That race was just shy of 3 weeks ago, and he was well punted in his attempts to gain a second career win but his efforts petered out and another disappointing display is all he ultimately achieve. He ran off 85 there and has now received another 3lbs worth of grace from the handicapper, and I think this will surely help when combined with a stiff, testing 6 furlongs, which he surely gets around Pontefract.

Satin Love is bred to appreciate further but I think that backing horses who stay further than the trip they race at on the Pontefract track can often pay dividends, as it takes a lot of getting and the final 3 furlongs are up a very steep hill, so stamina is exactly what's needed here and that's what he was originally expected to excel at. He has also won at Hamilton, which is a similarly testing course that takes a fair bit of getting, and he got it exceptionally well on debut when scooting up the steep hill to score by 5 lengths over the same distance he faces here. Realistically, he beat nothing that day in a 4 runner race but the way he went about business was quite decent and he showed a nice turn of foot to put the race to bed despite only receiving a couple of little reminders to do so. He was eased down close home and was definitely value for further. Satin Love handled the Hamilton undulations and steep hill very well that day, but it was a straight 6 furlongs and he'll have to the sharp turn for home here and the short run in, but he should be more than capable if allowed to give his all, which is always the question with some of Johnston's animals. He's a hard trainer to catch right and even harder to catch right when he has two animals in the race but I think this is the one that's being overlooked significantly. The yard are in decent order overall and Johnston has a 15% strike rate at this course, whilst Fallon has an extremely impressive 28% strike rate from 159 runners (45 wins) here, with a LSP of £45. He's clearly a man who can get the best of horses around this course and I think that he has the right horse underneath him today. He hasn't had many winners of late though, which is a worry, but he has had many a close call and is bound to land a nice one soon.

The other Johnston horse is Mutajare, who will be partnered by Richard Hills. He is 5 from 10 for Johnston at this course, which is obviously impressive but he has no prior experience of riding this horse and that's something I always like to take a look at. He also wouldn't be one of my favoured jockeys in any situation. Fallon was on Satin Love last time out, when the money came and the horse disappointed, so it's quite possible they could be after some retribution with the horse who was obviously fancied to go well and didn't. It's quite often that the outsider of the two Johnston horses wins too, and if early market signs are to be believed, my selection will be the better priced animal come the off. He cost $150,000 as a foal, so greater things were considered to be on the agenda but have failed to materialize. However, he seems to have strengthened up nicely and should make a tidy 3 year old. He handles the ground, should be suited by how the race will be run and is attractively handicapped given his early promise. I think that 12's are currently too big and I'd mark him down around the 8/1 price-tag, which would be shorter if it wasn't for the inclusion of his stablemate. Minimal each-way stakes for me in a race with numerous dangers, but I suppose there's plenty of them in every race. Hopefully he'll run well and the masterful Fallon will add to his impressive course figures.

x PyRo

4:10 Pontefract - Arlequin - 2pts @ 15/2 (WillHill)

Another tentative one, mainly down to a lack of any real pace here but I feel that Arlequin could be best suited to how things will pan out. There's plenty of horses who like to tag along in behind the leaders, but seems to be none that want to be out there making the running, so I can see it being slow early on and turning into a bit of a sprint. All of this could suit my selection who doesn't seem overly burdened by races run at a muddling pace and he seems to have a nice turn of foot when on song, particularly on quicker ground, which he gets here. He's a relatively well-bred 4 year old and comes here on the back of a productive 3 year old campaign, having progressed from a 78 rated animal to a peak of 92. He runs here off a mark of 87 and although still 9lbs higher than his most recent win, he has shown plenty that would lead me to believe that it's a workable mark. Another things that I like is the fact that ol' Phillip Robinson is taking the ride, and although he's adding on a few stone from his metal hip, he's a top notch jockey who has ridden this fellow to his best career win. The pair landed a very competitive 15 runner handicap over this trip at York last summer, followed by an unlucky effort behind Dandino on Derby day, where my selection was hampered mid-run when appearing to be staying on well enough. Robinson also rode him to a gallant 4th in an identical contest to this back in August, where my selection finished 4 lengths behind recent Lincoln winner Sweet Lightning, on the back of a modest pace. That was judged to be a joint career best effort, level with his win at York, and it's clear to see that Robinson can get the best out of this animal.

The only other problem that worries me is the track, as he didn't handle the sharpness of Epsom when running there, but that's a much tougher test and I'll pass over that run. Arlequin has gained all his wins going left-handed, so that aspect should suit, he stays extremely well, which is also ideal and he should be effective with how this will pan out, which is vital. Although I could be very, very wrong but we'll see later. He also comes here fit having had a couple of runs on the all-weather out in Germany and his yard have had 2 winners and 1 second from 9 runners when teaming up with Robinson at Pontefract, with the wins coming at odds of 10/1 and 25/1, so they show a huge 311% ROI here. Overall, James Bethell's yard have had 7 wins, 3 seconds and 10 thirds from 88 runners, with a LSP of £5, which ain't much, but it's somethin'! This is the yards only runner of the day and one of only two rides for Robinson, the other being a first time out 3 year old for Clive Brittain. Robinson has a sublime record at this course, with 22% (33 wins) of his 149 runners winning and many others running well. He rides the course well and should prove to be a big plus to a horse running here for the first time. There are many dangers and the one I'd be interested in if I was assured a good gallop is Brian Ellison's Overrule (16/1), but the gallop is far from assured and he really needs it. Heavy rain is forecast, and that's another thing I want to stay away for the sake of my selection, who clearly goes best of quick ground. He's one of only a few with a relatively recent run, he goes well during the spring/summer months, he has stamina and speed, with possibly everything else needed to go well here. It's only a small/medium stake for me, as there's plenty of risk, but at 15/2, it's worth taking a chance on. Plenty of the others will need the run or have other targets in mind throughout the season, so Arlequin could be the most lively contender in a race where everything is up in the air. Nothing else for me today, the two selection will do, but neither are very solid, but nor was yesterdays!

x PyRo

Satin Love put in a better performance than his recent all-weather comeback but could only manage 4th place. He was one of the first horses off the bridle a fair way out but was still in with a shout of placing a furlong from home. However, the winner hampered him on the rail as she was going past and that put paid to his chances of placing. He probably wouldn't of anyways but it was still a decent effort and he'll go back up to 7f I'd imagine, everything was happening too quick but he ran on well enough at the end. Keep an eye on him in the future.

My Single Malt was probably the one to take out of the race. He'll land a nice prize this year and still looks attractively handicapped. He broke slowly and had to go wide to get a run but showed enough to think he'll make a very nice 3 year old. A step up in trip wouldn't go astray either and he's entitled to come on for the run.

The winner, Strictly Pink, fitted the bill as a horse I'd want to side with around Pontefract but I opposed based on some relatively average runs on the all-weather. Wrongly so and the change of tactics worked a treat. She looks like a nice enough type but I'd oppose next time out.

As I thought, Arlequin's race turned into a bit of a sprint, but it was run at a decent pace early on. However, luck in-running wasn't on my side again and he had to come wide to get a run having failed to find a gap coming to the turn for home. When he got into the open, he ran on exceptionally well to come a fast-finishing 4th, but the leading trio had flown. It was still a highly encouraging effort given that things didn't pan out to suit and the fact that it paid massive dividends to race handily.

Arlequin done the best of those coming from behind and he'll definitely land a big handicap this year, probably around York in a 20 runner field where they go at it from early on. Although I think he's effective regardless of how the race is run, but it doesn't help when he's held on to on the back of an average pace. If they're going to go slow enough, I'd much prefer to see him settled in mid-div instead of being at the rear, but what do I know. It was very encouraging though and I think he could have a very fruitful 4 year old campaign.

-4pts on the day. Disappointing enough.

Overall Bank - 233.32pts (+133.32pts)

2011 Flat Stats -

Profit - +19.50pts

Bets - 13
Wins - 2
Placed - 2
Win SR - 15%
Staked - 32.00pts
Returned - 51.50pts
ROI - 62%

3ndahalfof6

Cheers sir, we can not win all the time, but your finding some for the future, the kitty is still well healthy,

I feel a bit embarrassed I put a saver on the winner as like you I felt it also had a good chance, onwards and upwards.

x PyRo

Early bets.

3:10 Beverley

Solemn - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Duchess Dora - 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

4 places paid. Solemn's price won't be around in half an hour imo. It's much too big. Reasoning to follow.

jive

x PyRo wrote: »

Early bets.

3:10 Beverley

Solemn - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)
Duchess Dora - 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

4 places paid. Solemn's price won't be around in half an hour imo. It's much too big. Reasoning to follow.

he's 16/1 already

3ndahalfof6

I should check in more often got it @ 12s but still a fine price if it gets in the 1st four, thank you sir.

FOXFISH1

Solemn now at 14/1 bet365

x PyRo

Fingers crossed he'll place at least. Market is positive already but wouldn't take much to shift it.

3:10 Beverley - Solemn - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

I'm taking two horses in this competitive 5 furlong sprint and the first of them is Milton Bradley's Solemn, who looks to have come back to an attractive handicap mark. His yard excel with sprinters and this fellow looked to be going the completely wrong way, having failed to get his head in-front, or even close, in 12 runs at 2 & 3. However, he proved most progressive at 4, getting a victory in a claimer when rated 45 and going on to score a further 4 times, ending the season with a rating of 72, nearly 2 stone above his rating second time out. The application of blinkers clearly helped to sort out this previously poor animal and he finally got to strut his stuff. It seemed hard for him to find much more when embarking on his 5 year old campaign in 2010, but he made his seasonal bow over this C&D, in which he ran a very respectable 2 length 3rd (from modest draw) in a race where many failed to get in a blow. Solemn was running from a 9lb lower mark than he faces today, but next time out he made amends for that defeat, when running out a 4 length winner on the back of a good pace at Yarmouth. He was most impressive that day and it was a very easy win off a mark of 72, showing that he was still going the right way. The handicapper was unforgiving and rose him up 12lbs in the weights for that effort. He disappointed next time out as a result but seemed to just have an off day, as he proceeded to finish second on his next 3 runs, off mark of 80, 80 & 81. Connections then decided to up him in grade again, this time he was running in a 19 runner class 2 handicap at Ascot. He finished a gallant 3 length 7th in the contest and went on to score again next time out, beating a 10 strong field at Newbury on his favoured fast ground. That was off the same mark he faces today, and he won in the style of a very game horse to get up to score by a nose on the back of a furious pace set by the trailblazing veteran, Cape Royal. Given that Milton Bradley's then 5 year old is much better tracking a fast pace, he done exceptionally well to win that race as he missed the kick at the start and had to make up a fair bit of ground to get involved. He ran some decent races under more weight after that but disappointed on his last 3 starts, with ground being a valid excuse in my opinion. He also had a tough long season which probably took its toll and now that he'll be freshened up and has conditions to suit, I fancy a huge run here.

The common denominator with the majority of Solemn's best runs seems to be a combination of truly fast ground and a rapid gallop at the head of affairs. Given the fact that the likes of Whozthecat and numerous pressers line up here, everything should be run to suit Bradley's runner, who only has race fitness to prove. A lot will depend on how forward he is first time out, but he's a fast ground horse, likes this type of track and hasn't landed a pot this big in the past, so I'm making the assumption that they'll actually be going for it. Silvestre De Sousa looks a very positive booking too, as he has never ridden for this yard before make a 420 mile round trip to come here for just one runner, which looks very promising. Solemn has a decent course record, which reads ; 1-2-3, whilst his overall form on Good-to-Firm ground is 4 wins, 4 seconds and 2 thirds, from just 13 runs. He clearly excels on this surface and added to that, he has the best draw in stall 1, as Beverley is notorious for having a draw bias, with horses previously drawn high (now low) holding a severe advantage, especially in bigger fields. I anticipate that he'll just sit in behind the pace and try to wear the leaders down late. A good break will obviously be key and luck in running alongside the rail will be too, but he's ideally positioned in a stall that boasts fine figures over this trip. That, amongst others things, wasn't factored into his price earlier on and I feel that 25/1 was laughable for a horse with plenty of ability and one who has run well fresh. He's around the 12-14/1 mark now, which is closer to reflecting his realistic chances here but it may still be a hint of value. Minimal each-way bet for me, as fitness is taken on trust, but he could go well at a nice prize in a race containing many animals with their sights set on other things. There's also 4 places being paid assuming nobody drops out, which is a bonus.

The next selection is Duchess Dora - 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

The draw makes life oh so tough for this talented 4 year old filly, but I still feel that she's worth a saver in the off-chance that the draw won't overly hinder her chances. Ignoring that, she goes well fresh, having won impressively first time up last year. Duchess Dora is also a C&D winner off this mark back in her 2 year old days and is ideally suited to a stiff 5 furlongs. She posted a few relatively poor efforts last year but was only a length away from winning at Listed level when rated 95 and has serious form claims back in a contest like this. Champion Jockey, Paul Hanagan, is on board today and that looks to be a very positive booking for the John Quinn team. The yard are in good knick, as is Hanagan, and this looks like a contest that the horse would have huge claims in if it wasn't for the draw. I'm not going into too much detail, but at 16/1, she's worth a tiny each-way saver.

markc91

Hi Pyro you seem to be in the know sorry for dragging this O.T but im just qondering i joined bet 365 today and deposited 25e they gave me a 25e bonus but apparantley before i withdraw any winnings ive to bet 150e win or lose is this correct do you know???

x PyRo

Yeah dude, it has to be rolled over 6 times or something like that.

markc91

x PyRo wrote: »

Yeah dude, it has to be rolled over 6 times or something like that.

Sound man....Better keep picking them winners so

x PyRo

Hopefully you will.

scopper

Solemn has went waaaay down in price.

Joekers

Yup 9/1 now
Here's hoping

Fowler87

Got on Solemn @ 16/1.. hope I dont jinx ya Pyro!

x PyRo

No luck. Solemn was poor enough having taken up the running at the 2 marker but proceeded to fade tamely a furlong from home. He went off at 14's, so I was happy with the price I got, just not the run.

Duchess Dora was definitely the one to take out of the race though. I only thought she was saver material, but she was very well backed to go off the 7/1 joint second favourite. She got a nice sit in midfield from her poor draw but had nowhere to go at one stage and was then denied a clear run by the 4th placed horse. She ran on strongly enough under a tender ride and will definitely be of interest next time out.

-3pts on the day.

2:45 Ripon - Discanti - 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Plenty of early pace on here and I'm expecting that to help set things up for Discanti, who despite being 8lbs above his last winning mark, still looks attractively handicapped given he has ideal conditions and will have a solid pace to run at. That last win came over C&D, which was his first career win over this 6 furlong trip, having done all of his winning at the minimum. It was his third start of the season, having finished a running on 4.5 length 4th to Hawkeyethenoo (improved 25lbs since) over 5 furlongs at Thisk and could be considered very unlucky having had trouble in running, including getting slightly hampered and being denied a clear run. He finished 2nd next time out, over 5f at Thirsk yet again, and despite going down by a short head, he shaped as if being in need of a step up in trip, which duly followed. They went a good pace early on, although not as fast as it should be today, but Discanti traveled supremely well in behind on his second career start at Ripon and his first attempt at this trip since early on in his 3 year old days. He took up the running going well and showed a decisive turn of foot to run out a 3.25 length winner under the David Allen, who rides today. He had numerous excuses in his next 4 runs, as he was drawn poorly first (came 3rd), couldn't get a run in the second race (5l 12th in a class 2), raced alone next time (7th), then pulled far too hard and couldn't get a run in a class 3, where he came a 4 length 6th. However, after all of those runs, he ran a cracking 2nd to Hotham in a class 3 handicap over 6f at York. He managed to get hampered early on before running on very strongly to finish an unlucky short-head behind the winner. He pulled hard again next time out, and could only manage 4th on the back of a 3lb rise, but went 2 places better when finishing a gallant 2nd to Mey Blossom after that, once again being troubled mid-run when failing to get a run a furlong from home. He flew near the end to finish a neck behind the winner but was so unlucky in running. It was a fine effort under top weight nonetheless and proved he was still going the right way despite being a 5 year old. Another 2lb rise was deemed fair by the handicapper and he was upped to class 2 and returned to this track to tackle some very decent animals. A 4 length 6th was all he could muster this time but it was still a decent effort all the same. 2 more decent runs followed before he earned a well deserved break.

Things rarely seem to fall favourably for Discanti, but he's now back running off 84, a mark he is competitive off and he's running in a class 4, which is more like his level. His record at this grade is 3 wins, 2 seconds and 4 thirds from 18 attempts. Over 6 furlongs it's 1 win, 1 second and 2 seventh's from just 4 runs, with valid excuses being available for both of the poorer efforts. He's still relatively unexposed over this trip, having only run 11 times from 33 of his starts and it's quite plausible that there's more to come. The one common denominator in his better runs seems to be a sharp track, which Ripon is, and that's exactly what he wants. A good gallop is also a help, as he does travel very well on the back of them and seems to pick up a lot easier when there's early pace, so the inclusion of the likes of Sir Geoffrey, Divertimenti and Cape Vale, leads me to believe that something will come off the pace to win this, despite it being a track that favours front-runners. Discanti also has decent form when going fresh, which reads ; 4-3-4. He's never won first time up and will be entitled to come on for the run, but he's consistent in the main and I feel it's worth taking a chance on him going a few places better. His yard are in poor form, which is a slight worry, but the horse is more than capable on the day and with everything being ideal, fitness is the only thing I'd worry about.

The favourite, Marvellous Value, doesn't live up to his name here, so I'm readily opposing. He has buckets of talent and looked well handicapped, but 4/1 is much too short. 6/1 was available earlier, and I see no reason to take anything less than that. Sir Geoffrey was the one I wanted to back originally, as he's an improving horse, but there's too much worry over the trip and I think he's an out-and-out 5 furlong speedster. I reckon he'll go off so fast that the other front-runners won't have a chance of winning, unless tactics are changed. I also don't think he'll last home and will probably finish mid-div. Cape Vale may be better on a galloping track and isn't well drawn, nor suited by the inclusion of other pacesetters. Desert Strike, for all that he has improved, is an all-weather horse and has a 0 from 12 record on turf, including from much lower marks. It's possible he could win, as the race will be run to suit, but 6/1 is never his true price and he's better over 5 furlongs. A few others have chances, but Tim Easterby's Discanti is the one I'm sweet on, and I think 8/1 is a good value price. He's well drawn, at home in conditions, goes alright fresh, goes well here and could potentially have more to give. Luck in running will be key, as he always seems to find it, but I expect he'll sit in midfield before running on strongly to finish somewhere in the top 3, hopefully first. Small/medium each-way stakes on my only bet of the day.

spiraleye

second for Discanti.

Joekers

Anything for today ?

x PyRo

Sorry I'm only getting back now. Didn't bother punting anything yesterday Joe.

Discanti finished a good 2nd on Thursday. He raced handier than I would of and it didn't really pan out as I expected, with the winner getting a handy lead early. However, my selection held every chance inside the last couple, but couldn't get close to Cape Vale, who ran out an impressive enough winner. Disappointing enough but still a small profit and he was well punted too.

+1.5pts on the day.

2:10 Thirsk - Celtic Sultan - 1pt e/w @ 11/1 (WillHill)

Tentative selection, as this fellow will need to lead and fitness has to be taken on trust, but I think that Tom Tate could land the spoils with his trailblazing 7 year old, Celtic Sultan. He ran many good races last year and only really disappointed on a couple occasions, probably because he went off to fast each time. However, there were plenty of runs throughout the year suggesting that this mark of 90 may not be beyond his capabilities, especially around a sharp flat track like Thirsk, where he now visits for the first time. This sharp 7 furlongs is probably his optimum trip, especially considering he won over 7½ furlongs around Chester, a notoriously sharp track, off a 10lb higher mark (mark of 100) a few years ago. Better things were expected of this fellow, but he failed to cut much ice after that, until sent to Catterick (mark of 85) for the first and only time, another very sharp track. Thirsk wouldn't be as sharp as either of those, but it most certainly suits his type of horse, so now all he'll need to do is knick the lead, which will be tough. The likes of multiple C&D winner Glenridding and the talented but frustrating Joesph Henry line up in opposition here, both of whom like to set a good tempo at the head of affairs, which doesn't bode well for my selection.

However, I'll take my chances as Celtic Sultan has buckets of early speed and has a sound draw in stall 5, which should help him get over to the rail first, depending on a good break of course. He has also won first time up in the past and run well on other occasions, so it's quite possible that he could be readied to go well now, even though he's now 7 and unlikely to have too much in hand. Micky Fenton takes the ride and gets on very well with the horse, having guided him to 3 of his 5 career wins and been on his back no fewer than 33 times under rules. Fenton comes up to Thirsk for just 2 rides, the other wouldn't be considered to have a good chance at all. He, when teaming up with Tate, boasts a fine record at this track, with 5 winners, 2 seconds and 3 thirds from just 17 rides, giving them an impressive 29% strike rate here. Tate doesn't have runners here too often and only brings one other animal to the track today, and he wouldn't have much of a shout either. Celtic Sultan is definitely their best chance of a winner today and I think it looks interesting that he's running here for the first time, even though it's debatable if he'll get a chance to show his best given the doubt over his chances of getting the lead. However, he finished last season with 2 very creditable 1 length thirds and with another winter under his belt, he could have a decent chance of blitzing this field, many of whom will need the run and are likely to have other targets in mind. 4lbs separate the field on official ratings, so it's most certainly not a race to have a sizable bet on anyone, but I think it's worth siding with this fellow, who has went fresh, will love the track, loves the ground, is well drawn and has buckets of ability on his day. Ruth Carr's San Cassiano also interested me at 25/1 but the yards form is a worry and the trip may be on the sharp side, regardless of the track. Oratory is another interesting one having switched yard and running off a career-low handicap mark, but he's entitled to need the run and may find his future lying over further, although the race will be run to suit. He definitely warrants respect. Ancient Cross has claims too, but his yard are impossible to get right and the same could be said about the Johnston pair, who look interesting but couldn't be backed with too much confidence. Nor can Celtic Sultan, but I think that 11/1 offers a bit of each-way value and he has a shout at getting into the places at least.

King Fontaine (100/1 in one place) for the National! Although I'm not posting any more National Hunt selections, as it's just impossible for me to get right. Only one bet today (although I'm backing KF for tiny stakes), on what looks a terrible proposition for punters.

x PyRo

It only took 20 yards to know Celtic Sultan was done. A combination of not getting out overly quick, being squeezed of room and getting hampered put paid to his chances. Which was frustrating but that's racing. He'll come on for the run big time and I'll be on again.

I said that "Tate doesn't have runners here too often and only brings one other animal to the track today, and he wouldn't have much of a shout either." - I was wrong, he won! At 18/1 too. God f'ing damn it! It's hard enough being wrong about my own selection but that just took the biscuit, and ate it. I got the right trainer, at the right track, just the wrong horse.

-2pts on the day.

No selections for Sunday, but Money Trader is running at Leopardstown and could have a squeak. I'm busy all day tomorrow though, so I'm not backing it. No doubt he'll win!

dabestman1

14:50 plumpton, who's your tip.

x PyRo

3:00 Newmarket - Madawi - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

I'm a big fan of Clive Brittain and his runners always warrant respect regardless of highly campaigned they are. Madawi seems to be another one of his Saeed Manana owned juveniles who could be tackling some of the top opposition around, as his entry in the 2,000 Guineas would suggest, although it's likely he'll prove to be below that grade, but I think this is a very achievable target assuming he's trained on from his 2 year old campaign. He's a 4 time raced maiden, but highly tried on every occasion, including when finishing a good 3rd on debut in a hot maiden (1l behind Biondetti, Group 1 winner after), which has since produced many a winner. My selection was staying on well that day but didn't quite have the pace to match the first 2 home. It was still a fine effort from a horse deemed to be a 20/1 shot on debut and he certainly showed plenty of promise for the future.

Next up was another trip to Newmarket, again over 7 furlongs but Madawi was now tried in a similar sales race to that of which he faces today. My selection finished in 4th place and was exceptionally well-backed, opening at 8/1 and going off as the 4/1 second favourite. However, he didn't look happy on the track second time around and despite being 11th a furlong from home, he finished with a rattle to come a 3 length 3rd behind shock 50/1 winner I Love Me. A step up in trip looked like it'd open up a few more doors for this fellow but he was sent back to this course for a third time to tackle a valuable 27 runner 2 year old contest, in which he was a staying on 10th place behind many who he re-opposes here. It wasn't a bad run all things considered, as he had to race stands' side and done the best of those. He also tackled soft ground for the first time and couldn't match the opposition for pace over the trip on that surface. He stayed on quite well though and there was plenty to like about the effort he gave. Next up was a tilt at a Group 3, in which he encountered soft ground and 7 furlongs once again. Madawi was outpaced and driven a fair way from home but stayed on impressively in the final couple of furlongs to grab 4th place on the line at Newbury, finishing just 4.75 length behind Klammer in a well run race. Once again, Clive Brittain's charge was well-backed but shaped as if needing further, which he finally gets today.

On official ratings and form, he has a bit to do with a few runners, but I think that he'll really appreciate the step up to this 1m 2f trip. He has plenty of speed from his sires side (progeny do well over middle-distances too), but his dam was a Group 2 winner (by 8 lengths) over this trip as a 4 year old and a Listed winner over this C&D as a 3 year old, having previously landed a Listed contest over 6f at 2. The signs are quite positive for Madawi, who, if following in the footsteps of his dam, should progress significantly at 3 when stepped up in trip, which he now gets. Whether he'd actually be better suited to a mile is up for debate but I think he shapes as if this trip is not beyond his limits and he should see it out alright. Having previous experience of the course should prove handy too and the ground is currently Good-to-Firm, which may well be a plus. How he'll handle running on the back of a break is yet to be known, but the winner gets £140,000 and I'm sure Clive will have him spot on for a good run. The yard have had a slow enough start to 2011, with just 1 win from 18 runners, but I'm expecting a big year from Brittain, especially as he's now reunited with the excellent Phillip Robinson who takes over as the new stable jockey. He should prove to be a plus to this horse and he's long overdue a winner too. Of the opposition, Together sets the standard on her Group 1 form, but she also faces a step up in trip and could well prove better on a slower surface. 11/4 isn't a price I'd consider taking, despite solid form claims, and I'll readily oppose. The Richard Hannon trio are interesting too, but I can't really split any of them and reckon they'll have to settle for minor honours at best. Mark Johnston has 4 runners and looks well equipped to make a bold bid to land the spoils, but it's complete guesswork as to what he'll be planning, and it's pretty assured that he'll have something planned! I'll side with Madawi, who is a 14/1 shot at the moment and looks a bit overpriced. He should really appreciate the spring ground, the step up in trip, the way the race will be run and the return to this track. He's worth a small each-way and I think he could be the dark horse in this race. He's certainly a lot better than he has got to show to date.