PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo

Poor effort from Madawi but I don't think he was overly helped out with how the race went. There was very little pace early on and it turned into a sprint, which didn't seem to suit as he dropped tamely away before being hampered when beaten. However, he's fully entitled to be in need of the run and I'll be on again at some stage. A truly run mile might just be ideal though.

-2pts on the day.

2:10 Newbury - Home Office - 2pts @ 7/1 (Betfred)

I wouldn't normally be too keen to get involved in a race like this but Mark Johnston is making a 500 mile round trip to come to Newbury with just one runner, and that looks interesting given the horses overall profile. Home Office was a constant improver as a juvenile, shaping well for a long time in a competitive C&D maiden on debut, before fading under pressure to finish last having been eased down. It wasn't a great run given the result but he showed plenty of early speed and looked like one to improve with racing, which was shown next time out, as he finished a good 2nd over this 7f trip at Musselburgh, holding every chance a couple of furlongs from home but he failed to pass the winner when asked to. The ground was quite soft that day, which may not have been ideal for this well-related type and I think we'll see that quick ground will bring out further improvement in time. Home Office avenged that defeat on his third and final juvenile start, in which he ran out a relatively comfortable half-length winner of a Wolverhampton maiden. That wasn't a very competitive race but once again, he travelled supremely and took it up going well, before showing a nice turn of foot to scoot clear of the field. A Mark Prescott trained animal came out of the pack to challenge but was always held and they were 7 lengths clear of the remainder. It's definitely not the strongest piece of form in the race but it does mean that my selection runs off a mark of 78 and carries bottom weight of 8st 7lbs in this 3 year old contest.

Whether or not he's ready to win on his seasonal reappearance is an unknown, but Johnston's making a fair trek up to a track where he has a 17% strike rate and Silvestre De Sousa takes the reins, which is surely a positive. De Sousa has a fine 21% strike rate on the turf for Johnston, and this is one of 3 rides for him today, the other 2 being un-raced juveniles for Paul Cole. I'm a huge fan of De Sousa and he should prove to be a big plus to this strong travelling type, but what Johnston has in store for him is another thing, as it's quite possible he could be "kept for another day", as so many of his runners are! However, Home Office most certainly has the scope to improve beyond his current rating of 78, and if he's ready first time up, he'll make a brave bid to land back-to-back races. Another thing is that he's owned by Sheikh Hamdan Bin Mohammed Al Maktoum, who not only has a very long name, but he also has a long list of winners so far this year, with 20 of his 76 runners in 2011 gaining victory, giving him a fine 26% strike rate. His animals are picking up plenty of small prizes so far and I fancy his chances of landing another £7,166. This horse holds an entry in one of the big Tattersalls Millions' races in June, but that's over 1m 2f, which could be where his future will be in time. For the moment, this trip should be no bothers given the early pace he showed on a number of occasions last year and I think he should make a cracking 3 year old. This is a very open contest though, and it's tough too be confident about anything but I'm finding reasons to oppose plenty of the opposition. Paul Cole's None Shall Sleep and Clive Brittain's Sikeeb were the others who caught my eye, but for one reason or another, I think that Home Office is the value at 7/1 and the most likely winner if he's allowed to give it a good shot. Small/medium bet as I reckon he should be a couple of points shorter, even though the current favourite does look like a potentially good sort too. I just hope it's a truly run race, because if it is, my selection should definitely be involved in the finish.

x PyRo

4:55 Newbury - Sohraab - 2.5pts e/w @ 11/1 (Bet365)

Quite baffled by this price, as despite the fact that this horse is a character to say the least, he has plenty of raw ability and has went well when fresh before. To be honest, I had expected a price around the 5/1 mark, hence why this is a max each-way bet at such an early stage of the season. Sohraab has reappeared in this race last twice, finishing a gallant 2nd to the supremely talented Chief Editor, who met his end next time out when falling. He was arguably well handicapped off a mark of 107 and just got up to pip Hughie Morrison's charge by half a length in the dying stages of the race. My selection was near the peak of his powers back then, running off a mark of 95, 7lbs higher than what he faces today and this renewal would be less competitive I'd imagine.

Sohraab went on to win next time out in decent fashion before going on to run very well in 4 of his next 5 races, all at Listed level, where he competed admirably against the likes of the exceptionally talented J J The Jet Plane (4l 4th), Borderlescott (1l 4th), Doncaster Rover (½l 2nd) and Exceptional Art (hd 2nd), who just got up in the final strides to deny my selection a stakes win. Morrison's then 5 year old went on to compete at Group level but was out of his depth and performed as expected. Whilst he hasn't run up to that level in a fair while, he wouldn't need to to land the spoils here over his preferred 5 furlong trip on very fast ground. After all of those outings, the now 7 year old ran in this race last year, finishing a 4l 5th behind Blue Jack. My selection got a fine tow into the race but couldn't take advantage and never really picked up. However, that was from a 10lb higher mark than what he's rated at today, and I think we'll see a much improved effort assuming he doesn't throw in a shocker, as he does on occasion.

Sohraab disappointed in competitive races on a few occasions last season, before he finally took advantage of some leniency from the handicapper to land a 5f contest around Sandown on fast ground, making full use of his good draw in stall 1. He's now 3lbs higher than that win and although he was found out from a mark of 89 on his next and most recent 2 appearance, he probably found the ground a bit dead for his liking. The last of those runs seen him outpaced from the off and receiving reminders early on, but he was probably feeling the effects of the season and didn't really want to know at all. He should be refreshed for having had a break and he has won first time up off this mark before, so lets hope for an identical result here. He's trained by Hughie Morrison, who seems to have his yard in great order with a few nice winners of late and the booking of Eddie Ahern looks interesting. Eddie comes to Newbury for just the one ride, and he has ridden this fellow to his career best victory back in May of '09. He doesn't ride too often for this yard and I fancy him to have a positive impact on this horse. Ahern has a 17% strike rate in the past fortnight and seems to be riding quite well at the beginning of this year, so hopefully he'll add to his tally here. Hughie Morrison has a good record here with 11% of his runners winning and they also show a profit to SP. The yard bring down 4 runners today, with 2 having little hope and the other having his first run in this code for near on 2 years, although he was impressive over hurdles lately.

I reckon this is their best chance of a winner today and I really think the odds-compliers have overlooked Sohraab. It's a competitive race by all means and probably one that I shouldn't plow into, but so many of the other runners will have their targets over 6f and in better races, so the £10k on offer for the winner will hardly be worth the few lb rise that any potential winner will get. I don't think that applied to my selection, as he will need a win to get his season going and refill his confidence. Of the opposition, my old friend Cheveton would have a chance if it wasn't for his preference for softer ground. He's a classy animal on his day and at home around this C&D but I just can't back him on quick ground. Noverre To Go, Courageous and a couple of others are likely to improve for the run and step up in trip, so I'll avoid those too. Five Star Junior is probably handicapped to his best and in need of 6f, even though he's effective over 5. Striking Spirit has a chance but looks to have plenty of weight on his back and God only knows how the lightly raced Run For The Hills will perform for his new yard having been gelded. All in all, and potentially crazily, I think that Sohraab warrants a lot more respect than he's getting here. Conditions et all are in his favour, the jockey booking is positive, the yard are in form and he goes well fresh. He's 11/1 and over double what I thought he should be. Maximum each-way stakes on a very well handicapped horse and if I don't collect today, I will be getting it back in the not so distant future. There's no way that this horse won't win a decent race off this sort of mark and I think he'll run well enough today to see a return, and hopefully it'll be a big one.

That's me done until Saturday. Fingers crossed.

x PyRo

Ahh, my stupidity got the better of me. Home Office ended up like plenty of others from his yard and tailed off. He was under pressure a long way from home and definitely didn't get to give his true running. There's definitely more to come for him, but probably at a modest enough level and possibly on a slower surface.

To kick me in the balls even more, Sikeeb went on to win and I had a very long look at him yesterday before thinking he may need the run given Clive Brittain's recent runners shaping as if they did. That one will be interesting on good ground in decent races over a mile, although he proved he ain't so bad over 7f. He did look caught for toe at one stage though but ran on very well at the end to win quite easily. Pattern races await for him, probably not for my selection though!

I really, really, really fancied Sohraab to place at least, and I was very wrong. He, like most of the field, was under pressure a fair way from home and only managed a modest 6th place in the end. He shaped as if he'd most certainly come on for the run and I'll be aiming to collect my losses again when he's in a suitable race. He's undoubtedly well handicapped on his best form and still has some decent fast ground handicaps in him when he shows his best, so I'll be keeping an eye on him. Very disappointing though but that's racing, unfortunately.

-7pts on the day. Still in profit (will update stats soon) for the start of the flat but not as much as I'd like to be having had a decent start.

Roll on tomorrow, there'll be winners galore, but whether I find them will be completely different story!

3ndahalfof6

onwards and upwards sir, tomorrow is a new dawn.

x PyRo

Cheers mate, fingers crossed for a good day.

2:05 Newbury - Bridge Of Gold - 2pts @ 10/1 (WillHill)

A relatively competitive Group 3 contest featuring many decent types, but the one I'm interested in is the Mikael Magnusson trained 5 year old, Bridge Of Gold. Whilst he certainly doesn't have the form in the book to suggest he has a great chance, he is lightly raced for his age and previously shaped as if being a potentially Group class animal, so now he gets the chance to show it. I've got worries about many of the field purely down to the fast ground. Clowance is a softer ground horse, as is Poet and possibly even Allied Powers, who has form on good ground, but nothing on anything quicker than that. Indian Days is also another with good ground form, but has probably run his best race on softer going when landing the spoils in a Turkish Group 2. The ground is a concern for my fellow too, as he is un-raced on anything quicker than good and his trainer says he'll only run if it's suitable enough.

However, Bridge Of Gold did run a cracking race in the Ebor Handicap on quick-ish going, when he finished a gallant 3rd to the dual performing Dirar. Magnusson's charge held every chance inside the final furlong having taken up the running but he couldn't match the finishing burst of the duo who finished ahead of him and a 1.25l 3rd place was all he could muster. That was a career best run though, but he was unfortunate to have missed the majority of his 4 year old campaign, having previously picked up a virus when he came back from Meydan in 2010, where he put in two relatively dismal performances. Before that, he won a competitive all-weather handicap around Lingfield off a mark of 100, winning by ½ a length but he was good value for further. That was only his fourth career start, having previously opened up his account on debut at this course over a mile on soft ground. He ran a good race at Listed level on just his second start and looked like he'd be flying high, but things obviously haven't panned out as expected. Magnusson is on record as saying he's "the best horse I ever had", and that's quite encouraging to say the least! Given that he has only had 8 career runs and certainly hasn't peaked as of yet, I think that a race of this nature could be on the cards. Whether it's on the cards now, having run averagely in a French Listed race last time out, is yet to be seen, but the 10/1 price-tag is ever so tempting for a horse who could really be anything.

The stable don't often venture to Newbury, with only 17 runners here over the year, 4 winning, with 2 seconds, 1 third and 4 fourths. A 24% strike-rate overall is quite impressive and they show a tidy LSP & ROI too. This is Magnusson's only runner of the day and his first at the course since he had 2 runners in 2009, both winning at 9/1, including Bridge Of Gold. The wonderful Christophe Soumillon is booked for the ride and he's a fantastic jockey with plenty of talent. He's coming to Newbury for 3 rides and I fancy his chances on another one of them too. He'll hopefully prove to be a plus to this animal, who at least comes here on the back of a recent enough run but will be fresh enough, which seems to be a positive given his overall record to date. I've no doubt that Magnusson will have the horse spot on but whether he'll run him is another thing, so there's a good chance he could be pulled. His biggest danger is undoubtedly Sir Michael Stoute's impressive 4 year old, Verdant, who could make into a top-notch horse this year but I just can't accept 2/1 for him. I'm going to stick with the odd Magnusson/Soumillon partnership to land the spoils and hope that this lightly raced 5 year old can finally live up to his trainers initial hopes. One thing I failed to mention was the trip, which should be his optimum. He's a $250,000 purchase who hasn't lived up to that price-tag, but he can here by landing the £30,000 prize. 10/1 looks a nice price and I'll have a relatively tentative small/medium bet on him to do the job. Hopefully he'll run!

DOC09UNAM

Best of luck with this one Pyro.

UrbanSea

Hey Pyro where do you see how much they cost as yearlings?

Soumillon is terrific on terrific horses.

x PyRo

I just get it from whatever's listed on the RP.

2:40 Newbury - Rimth - 2pts @ 11/2 (WillHill)

Speed, speed, speed and oceans of speed. That's what Rimth is bred to have. However, having performed admirably over sprint distances as a 2 year old, I now fancy her to make the transition into a nice horse around 7f, and even potentially over a mile (although not entered in the Guineas). She's officially joint-second best with regards to how well she is in at the weights, and I'm of the opinion she could be an even better animal than her official rating suggests, over this trip mind. She's a wonderfully talented horse and even has Group 1 form behind Hooray, on soft-ish ground, which doesn't suit a horse who I believe to be significantly better on a quick surface. Her dam won over a mile on the all-weather but she's related to some very classy sprinters, which must be where Rimth gets all her natural speed. However, it's still an unknown about how she'll do over further and I'm more than happy to take 11/2 on her being good enough.

Last year, on debut, Rimth routed the field despite running greener than grass and having an unfavourable position over 5 furlongs at Windsor. She was all there physically but not mentally, according to her trainer, and he went on to say that she was one of the fastest fillies he's ever had. I've quite a lot of time for Paul Cole and regularly back his animals, so when he says she's fast, she's most certainly fast! Next up, connections decided to give the then 2 year old a shot at Group level, even though she got injured after her debut win and wasn't seen between May and August. Her preparation was obviously not 100% ideal but she still lined up in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes over 6f at York. The ground was good, which was ideal, but ran green throughout, before staying on well to finish a 3l 3rd behind Hooray on their first meeting. Rimth then ran a fortnight later, this time at Listed level and on her preferred Good-to-Firm ground. She raced handily this time and looked likely to win at one stage but got collared on the line by the fast finishing Brevity, who hasn't raced since but holds an entry in the 1,000 Guineas. Paul Cole's charge was probably in front plenty long enough and was a little unfortunate to lose the race so late on. It was still a fine effort from the inexperienced filly and she looked sure to go on to better things.

Next up was another tilt at Group level, this time in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at Ayr, just a couple of weeks after her last outing. This time she was so unlucky to find Jamie Spencer at his comical best, as he managed to try drive her through gaps that just weren't there, on numerous occasions. That run was best forgotten and it certainly couldn't be considered as her true running. Rimth's next and last outing was the previously mentioned Cheveley Park Stakes, where she hadn't a hope of catching the very classy Hooray, but where she did manage to put in a career best effort to finish a gallant 2nd. The way she stayed on up the Newmarket hill on possibly unsuitable ground would really help reinforce the claims that she may just prove to be a better animal over further, even though it's obvious that she has plenty of speed. She may just prove to have enough stamina too, and if she does, it'll be a very exciting season for Paul Cole and company, as she could go right to the top with the right guidance. Today she'll have Christophe Soumillon on board, and he boasts a fine record for the Cole yard, with 10 wins, 9 seconds and 6 thirds, all from just 34 rides, giving the combo an impressive 29% strike rate. Most of those rides were out in France but as I said in my previous write-up, I really fancy two of Soumillion's rides, and this is obviously the second of those! Conditions are ideal for the horse, the race is likely to be run to suit, the jockey on board isn't as prone to errors as Spencer and the opposition may not be as classy as she is if she gets the extra furlong. Pontenuovo could be anything, but deserves to be favourite on official ratings. I've no idea about the horse though, so I'll just avoid saying anything! Cape Dollar will probably need further. Eucharist can't be backed at 9's given the fact that she's only proven in nurseries. There could well be more to come but I couldn't back her at those odds, regardless of connections. A few others have claims but I think that 11/2 is a cracking price about Rimth, as the only worry is whether she'll stay and I reckon she will on this ground. The track should also play to her strengths and I really expect a big performance here. She has the form in the book to be competitive and she's worth having a small/medium bet on. It'd be bigger if it wasn't for the worries over the trip, but hopefully that'll prove no obstacle.

x PyRo

3:45 Newbury - Greyfriarschorista - 2pts e/w @ 28/1 (Ladbrokes - 4 places)

I could get 5 places for this race but I'd have to take 20/1, which is still a good price for this fellow but the 28's with the one firm is just much too big. Whilst Greyfriarschorista isn't one to be relied on, nor is his yard, he's potentially well in here on his return to turf. His profile overall is a patchy one, and that's being quite generous, but he proved how capable he is when coming a gallant 3rd of 27 in the Britannia Stakes back in June of last year. The winner of that, Ransom Note, recently reappeared to land a Group 3 quite comfortably when rated 107, so it just goes to show the level that Mark Johnston's now 4 year old gelding can compete at on his day. He flopped on all bar one of his next 7 runs and has subsequently dropped from a rating of 103 to now race off 90, which makes him look very, very well handicapped. He's also in first time blinkers, which I think will have a positive effect and I wouldn't be surprised to see him make use of his decent draw to set out to make all of the running. He has plenty of early speed and looks to be at his best when running towards the front, so it'll be very interesting to see what effect the headgear has on him.

Greyfriarschorista is still relatively lightly raced on the turf, having only had 8 runs on it, with another 8 runs coming on the all-weather, where he has gained all 3 of his career successes to date. Given Johnston's talent of getting them right on the big day, I wouldn't be surprised to see this fellow absolutely spot on for this race, especially as he has had 3 runs on the all-weather this season and should be coming into his own sometime soon, hopefully today. He was also deemed good enough to run in the 2,000 Guineas last year, although he was a 200/1 shot and finished second last, but I'm pretty sure that a fast ground handicap off a mark of 90 is not beyond him and I think this race could pan out in his favour. Typically it's won by improving 4 year olds who are drawn middle-to-high, and as he's drawn in stall 19, it may just be the perfect place to be, break dependant of course. There's plenty of pace around him too, so more reserved yet prominent tactics could be used too. No horse since '01 has defied a single figure stall, so 1-9 would be out already, and with most of the pace coming from the high numbers, I reckon the horses drawn from 16-25 could dominate this. It doesn't always work out like that but in these massive fields I like to try and discount certain runners and I'm finding it easy enough to get rid of at least 10 of them straight away (I could be very wrong mind!).

A few others interested me, most notably the well handicapped Night Lily, who ran a cracker in a Listed fillies' race on the all-weather last time out and gets to race off a much lower mark on the turf. However, her jockey has never rode at the course before and that'd be enough to put me off given the type of race this is. Saint Pierre could be anything but has only raced 3 times and is much too short to get involved with. Brave Echo would be in with a shout but for the draw theory and I'm not overly gone on his price now either, but he has claims. Andrew Balding's Brick Red is too short given the fact that he's only proven on softer ground, but he has a good chance if he handles conditions, although it's still not enough for me. I could go through the rest of the field making similar comments but the 28/1 about Greyfriarschorista looks much too big given the fact that his stable can get them back into miraculous form at times. Richard Hills also looks an interesting booking, even though I don't like him personally, but he rode the horse before and has 5 wins from 17 rides at this course for the trainer, giving them a 29% strike rate. Johnston also does quite well at the track and although his yard aren't in great form by their standards, the majority have been running fresh and this fellow does at least have recent runs to his name, over unsuitable trip I might add! It all looks rather interesting and I think that this horse could spring a surprise if he's on song. There's not much else I can say or I'd be talking all night but he might be worth a decent each-way bet at the odds and hopefully he'll live up to my expectations. I wouldn't expect this price to be anywhere in the early part of the morning. It just looks much too big.

Derek!

Hard luck with Bridge Of Gold mate

joebucks

x PyRo wrote: »

I just get it from whatever's listed on the RP.

2:40 Newbury - Rimth - 2pts @ 11/2 (WillHill)

Nice one man!

3ndahalfof6

it looks like it your turn today nice1 sir, the upwards is a great feeling.

budgemook

Good stuff!

UrbanSea

Well done,unlucky with the first. Did all his best work at the end,one for September at the Curragh if the ground is good?

x PyRo

Cheers for the comments lads. US, haven't a notion to be honest. :pac: Mightn't be up to that level (If you're on about the Leger) but who knows. Definitely a weak-ish Group race in him for sure.

---

A decent day all round but it could of been so much better if Bridge Of Gold had of picked up slightly earlier than he did. Despite the ground being a worry beforehand, it seemed to suit him and he was traveling well just behind the leaders coming into the last ½ mile. When push came to shove, he seemed to be going nowhere until Soumillon switched him to the outside and he came home with a flurry, finishing a head behind the winner, who ran around a bit once he took up the running. If he could of just picked up when originally asked then he'd of landed his first Group race, but he couldn't and he didn't. Disappointing enough but it was still a fine effort and I reckon he'll be landing a similar contest sometime during the season.

Rimth was top class today, beating a decent field with relative ease having drifted to 13/2 before the off. She pulled like a train in the early stages of the race but the wonderful Christopher Soumillon got her some cover towards the rear of the field, before setting her alight after weaving her way through a couple of gaps having been denied a clear run on a couple of occasions. She then took off like a bat out of hell and showed that wonderful turn of foot she has to take over inside the final ½ furlong and win very readily from an unfavoured position. The early pace wasn't too strong, which I don't think suited her (given how she pulled early), so to win how she did gives plenty of hope for the future. She was obviously well tuned for today and the step up in trip proved no bother (possibly flattered by the race turning into a sprint?), but how she'd get an extra furlong in the Guineas is still debatable. I reckon she's most certainly worth her place in the field though and if the ground was fast, combined with a good gallop throughout, she could have a chance. Paul Cole certainly has a top notch filly on his hands and it'll be interesting to see how she progresses throughout the season.

Greyfriarschorista was well punted as I thought he may be, eventually halving in price to go off at 14/1. He was still bang there and going alright about 3 furlongs out but faded tamely when the tempo lifted. He's obviously one to avoid from now on and I'll be doing exactly that. I opposed most of those drawn from 1-15, as I thought that the pace may come from the higher drawn horses, but it came from stall 1 (got over to the favoured middle strip of ground quicker than the rest, probably because most near him were restrained) and the first 5 home were drawn 10, 8, 7, 3 & 12, making me look quite stupid! It just didn't pan out as I thought, although it probably had zero effect on my selection, who ultimately, wasn't nearly good enough. He'll probably get more leeway from the handicapper and win a big race from a low weight at nice odds, but there's a fair chance I'll not be on.

I backed Arlequin last weekend and said after he finished 4th that he could have a "very fruitful 4 year old campaign". Well, I didn't notice that he was running today and never got around to backing him. He won quite easily at 7/2 in an average enough race with Philip Robinson on board for his only ride at the meeting, having come up from racing at Newbury earlier in the day. Gutted!

+7pts on the day. Making up for yesterdays poor effort but it's still disappointing as I'd of been quids in if my first horse had of picked up earlier. Still, can't complain.

Stat Attack -

Bank - 227.82pts (+127.82pts)

2011 Flat Stats - +14pts

Bets - 23
Wins - 3
Placed - 4
Win SR - 13%
Staked - 57.00pts
Returned - 71.00pts
ROI - 24.5%

Would of hoped to have picked things up after a decent start but I went 10 without a winner and lost about 18pts before getting that one up today. Still, if I can do a 24% ROI for the rest of the year then I'll be happy. I done much better from June onwards last year so hopefully the same follows this time around too. No selections for Sunday.

UrbanSea

Stranger things have happened,it's an infamously poor group 1. Vinnie Roe winning it 4 times says enough.
Wouldn't fancy it against the likes of Fame And Glory or Sans Froniters or even Dandino this year though if they turned up.

x PyRo

6:20 Windsor - Meglio Ancora - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Highly thought of by connections but has proved to be a big disappointment since winning on debut. Meglio Ancora was sent off as a 16/1 shot first time up, when running over 6 furlongs at Newbury in May of '09. He was up against a couple of decent types who cost a lot more money than he did, but in the end that didn't matter, as the then 2 year old ran out a determined ½ length winner, hold Alrasm quite readily and that one has since gone on to be rated 102. Given the fact that Jonathan Portman's charge was unsold at 1,600GNS as a foal and the second placed horse cost £150,000 as a yearling, it goes to show that money can't buy everything. Although the more expensive horse has obviously gone on to excel, whereas the winner has went backwards.

Things didn't work out after that game victory and Meglio Ancora had two more runs as a 2 year old, finishing tailed-off in a Listed contest on his second start, before finishing 8 lengths down the field on his handicap debut off a mark of 87. He was put away after August of that year and reappeared in April of 2010, where he put in a modest effort (off 83, over 1m 2f) in a good handicap won by the progressive Verdant. He got some leeway from the handicapper after that and was dropped 5lbs to a mark of 78, but it made little if any difference as he finished 12th of 12 having returned to Newbury, this time over 1m 3f. There's plenty of stamina in his blood, so these sort of trips would of been on the agenda even after he won over 6f on debut, but the horse looked very poor given the original promise he had shown. However, next time out, Meglio Ancora ran his best race since debut when running over 1m 3f at Goodwood on the back of another 4lb concession from the handicapper. He found one too good, in the form of Roxy Flyer, then rated 74 but was last seen running well in a Listed race when rated 90. That was still a fine effort from my selection, who ran on very well under the Fallon drive and was unlucky to find one very well handicapped horse in opposition.

A series of average enough runs from Meglio Ancora followed and as a result, he comes here to run off a mark of 70, which looks very workable if he's spruced up on the back of a break having had a few runs over hurdles, where he ran respectably but not much more. This is most certainly a tentative selection, but the return to the flat, combined with the return to a sharp track, could see him in a much better light. He's been off for 3 months so it could be possible that he'll be in need of the run but he was readied first time up and has run OK on the back of a break before, although nothing spectacular. Fast ground over a sharp 1m 3½f may prove to be in the favour of this fellow, who ran his best race over middle distances at Goodwood, which is also a sharp track, both of which suit the shorter striding nippy horses, which seems to be the category that he'd be put into. On paper, it'd look as if the Jonathon Portman yard are out of form, with only 1 winner from 27 runners this year, but once I delve a little deeper, the overall stats look better. They've had 1 win, 8 seconds, 3 thirds and 2 fourths from 28 runners, with 4 places from their last 10 runners, at prices of 16/1, 13/2, 33/1 and 14/1. That's not bad form for a yard without too many exceptional animals and I think they come here with a live chance of adding to that list of decent priced places. A win would also be possible and not beyond this horse if he's tuned up, so I feel that 25/1 with 4 places being paid is worth a small, tentative, each-way bet. Personally, I'd mark him up around the 12/1 mark, based on what he can do, not on what he has done of late, which is what the current price would be revolving around I'd imagine. Eddie Ahern also takes the reins, and he's a jockey I've quite a lot of time for. His record for the trainer is uninspiring but he has had big priced winners for him before and could do so again, if they're going for it. Of the opposition, there's too many dangers to list but none appealed too much and I'll happily stick with the unpredictable Meglio Ancora, who has talent, but rarely shows it. Fingers crossed that he does today and starts his 4 year old campaign with a bang, a massive one at that!

x PyRo

6:50 Windsor - Hand Painted - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

I can't really understand this price for a horse who has a cracking record on sharp tracks, loves quick ground, has went well here before and is exceptionally well handicapped. Hand Painted is now a 5 year old but not overly exposed having only run 15 times on the turf, winning 3, coming second 3 times and finished third once. His record in handicaps, on tracks with the characteristic of being sharp, with good or better ground and over this 6 furlongs trip, reads ; 3-1-1-2-2-5-4-5-2, which is exceptional. One of those second placed finishes was over C&D on his only start here, from a 6lb higher mark. He's now running off a mark of 67, with his 3 career wins coming off marks of 65, 70 & 75, which leads me to believe that he's potentially well in here, especially having had a recent run.

That race was 3 weeks ago on the all-weather at Kempton, where he returned from a 6 week break having finished a decent second in a seller. Hand Painted was exceptionally well backed on his return, opening at 13/2, before being punted so severely that he went off the 3/1 favourite in a 10 runner race that looked very competitive despite being a low-grade contest. He finished unplaced in the end but was only 3 length behind the winner, which wasn't too bad for a horse who I'd consider to be a lot better on the turf given his overall profile. Also, it could be possible that Peter Makin will be on the prowl to recoup monies lost last time out, and this race, even though competitive, does look right up his street from a very good draw in stall 4. He's also reunited with former regular jockey Travis Block, who was on board for his first 13 career starts but for none of his last 8. For whatever reason, I don't know. However, Block has a cracking record on this animal, with 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third and 3 fourths coming from those 13 rides. Given that there's currently going to be 4 places paid here, the signs do look positive and the jockey clearly knows how to do what no others have managed to do, and that's to get Hand Painted over the line in first place.

Block also has a good record for this trainer, with 8 wins, 7 seconds, 6 thirds and 8 fourths from 57 rides, giving the combination an impressive 14% strike rate with a massive £82 LSP, which is skewed by a 100/1 winner. Neither have mind blowing stats around the Windsor track, but this is the trainers only runner here and the jockeys only ride, so hopefully they'll make it count. Regardless of that, the track is built for Hand Painted, and he should appreciate the likely fast pace, which should lead him into the race nicely. Whether he'll prove as good as last season now that he's back on turf is questionable, but on all known form and on a lot of his efforts last year, he's well handicapped and could be ready to gain a long overdue win, if recent betting patterns are suggesting what I think they are. There are many dangers though, especially Equuleus Pictor who was unfortunate in running last time out and is currently subject to a bit of overnight market movement. He has a chance but having missed 12's, I'm not going to take 8/1. Stuart Williams runs two animals who you could make a case for, but it's tough to get his intentions right when he has one runner in the race, never mind when there's a couple. Wooden King also looks interesting but the draw isn't ideal for a horse who likes to make the running or race very handy, so for that reason, I pass over him too. Overall, I think Hand Painted is interesting and if he's out to run his race, he has very solid claims. It won't be an easy race to win, but with 16 runners currently and 4 places being paid, I think he can use his good draw to help grab one of them at least, if not win. He's a talented horse on his day and his day could be now, all going well. I'd of expected something around the 5/1 mark (The RP say 10's!), so I'll play medium each-way stakes. Hopefully the return to turf does the trick.

x PyRo

Both came 3rd (22/1 & 8/1).

+7.25pts on the day.

I'll post my little review thing later when I get a chance.

Happy out.

scopper

Thanks for these Pyro. I put on a small e/w double on these two on the random (7e e/w) so a handy enough profit for a Monday.

UrbanSea

Well done.

maxmo

Hello Pyro,any news on Peter Toole? I can't seem to find anything on here for recent information.He's a champion in the making.Thanks.Max

POINTBREAK

x PyRo wrote: »

6:50 Windsor - Hand Painted - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

I can't really understand this price for a horse who has a cracking record on sharp tracks, loves quick ground, has went well here before and is exceptionally well handicapped. Hand Painted is now a 5 year old but not overly exposed having only run 15 times on the turf, winning 3, coming second 3 times and finished third once. His record in handicaps, on tracks with the characteristic of being sharp, with good or better ground and over this 6 furlongs trip, reads ; 3-1-1-2-2-5-4-5-2, which is exceptional. One of those second placed finishes was over C&D on his only start here, from a 6lb higher mark. He's now running off a mark of 67, with his 3 career wins coming off marks of 65, 70 & 75, which leads me to believe that he's potentially well in here, especially having had a recent run.

That race was 3 weeks ago on the all-weather at Kempton, where he returned from a 6 week break having finished a decent second in a seller. Hand Painted was exceptionally well backed on his return, opening at 13/2, before being punted so severely that he went off the 3/1 favourite in a 10 runner race that looked very competitive despite being a low-grade contest. He finished unplaced in the end but was only 3 length behind the winner, which wasn't too bad for a horse who I'd consider to be a lot better on the turf given his overall profile. Also, it could be possible that Peter Makin will be on the prowl to recoup monies lost last time out, and this race, even though competitive, does look right up his street from a very good draw in stall 4. He's also reunited with former regular jockey Travis Block, who was on board for his first 13 career starts but for none of his last 8. For whatever reason, I don't know. However, Block has a cracking record on this animal, with 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third and 3 fourths coming from those 13 rides. Given that there's currently going to be 4 places paid here, the signs do look positive and the jockey clearly knows how to do what no others have managed to do, and that's to get Hand Painted over the line in first place.

Block also has a good record for this trainer, with 8 wins, 7 seconds, 6 thirds and 8 fourths from 57 rides, giving the combination an impressive 14% strike rate with a massive £82 LSP, which is skewed by a 100/1 winner. Neither have mind blowing stats around the Windsor track, but this is the trainers only runner here and the jockeys only ride, so hopefully they'll make it count. Regardless of that, the track is built for Hand Painted, and he should appreciate the likely fast pace, which should lead him into the race nicely. Whether he'll prove as good as last season now that he's back on turf is questionable, but on all known form and on a lot of his efforts last year, he's well handicapped and could be ready to gain a long overdue win, if recent betting patterns are suggesting what I think they are. There are many dangers though, especially Equuleus Pictor who was unfortunate in running last time out and is currently subject to a bit of overnight market movement. He has a chance but having missed 12's, I'm not going to take 8/1. Stuart Williams runs two animals who you could make a case for, but it's tough to get his intentions right when he has one runner in the race, never mind when there's a couple. Wooden King also looks interesting but the draw isn't ideal for a horse who likes to make the running or race very handy, so for that reason, I pass over him too. Overall, I think Hand Painted is interesting and if he's out to run his race, he has very solid claims. It won't be an easy race to win, but with 16 runners currently and 4 places being paid, I think he can use his good draw to help grab one of them at least, if not win. He's a talented horse on his day and his day could be now, all going well. I'd of expected something around the 5/1 mark (The RP say 10's!), so I'll play medium each-way stakes. Hopefully the return to turf does the trick.

Weird that the Portman horse won that race after the write up you gave him in the first tip.
6:50 - Reading Post Handicap
Full result
6f, Class 5, £2,266.60
1 Spanish Bounty 7/1
2 Mymumsaysimthebest 15/2
3 Hand Painted 8/1
NR: Ebraam (USA), Elhamri
14 ran Distances: 5l, ½l, nk
TIME 1m 13.03s (slow by 2.53s)
Jockey: Eddie Ahern
Trainer: Jonathan Portman

x PyRo

That's typical PB. Pity I fancied the other one and didn't just follow the yard. Ah well, hindsight's a lovely thing!

maxmo wrote: »

Hello Pyro,any news on Peter Toole? I can't seem to find anything on here for recent information.He's a champion in the making.Thanks.Max

Haven't heard anything lately Max. Last I heard his condition had stabilized and he's recovering. Hopefully he gets back in the saddle as I reckon he'll be top notch in the future. He won a lot of dough for me on Fine Parchment a few times.

x PyRo

Two profitable days in a row. That hasn't happened in a long time! My first selection, Meglio Ancora, ran a cracking race to finish 3rd having been backed at 25's. 2nd would of been his finishing position if Eddie Ahern hadn't been easy on him towards the line but the horse changed his stride not long before that and was probably tiring. However, it was still a fine effort and at one stage, I really thought he'd go on to win. The early pace was sedate, as expected, and this was probably ideal for a horse who obviously has a good finishing kick over shorter trips. The form probably isn't too solid and I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the disappointing runners come out and do well next time out, if they get a suitably run race, so I'll be keeping an eye on some of those. My selection ran a cracker though and he should have some races in him this year.

Next up was the consistent Hand Painted, who also finished 3rd having, at one stage, looked likely to finish somewhere in mid-div. He stayed on well under pressure in first time cheekpieces and it was a pleasing return to the turf for Peter Makin's charge. There's most certainly a couple of races in him off this sort of mark but he's gone a long time without getting his head in front, which isn't good. That run should bring him on though and it's possible we'll see a lot more next time out, assuming he runs on a similar track again. His sharp track form is ultra consistent and it won't be too long until career win number 4 comes along. I'm happy with place money at 8/1 though, as I could of easily got no return from that selection given how things panned out.

+7.25pts for the day, taking my profit from my first 25 bets (of which 8 produced profit) on the flat to +21.25pts, which I'm happy enough with. Profit to BSP is about half a point higher than profit to advised.

3:10 Pontefract - Wildcat Wizard - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

A cracking price for this horse and I'd imagine it's mainly based on the fact that you never know what you'll get from this animal, but he's blessed with ability, despite having failed to win since his juvenile days, he's now 5. Wildcat Wizard recently left Paul Cole's yard to join the yard of the sprint king, Dandy Nicholls. He has since had 2 runs, running terribly on both occasions and as a result, has dropped 6lbs down the handicap. That makes him look potentially well in here and given that he's a horse that can go in and out of form race by race, he looks very interesting with plenty stacked in his favour. The first of those runs was on the all-weather around Wolverhampton, where he raced keenly and was forced wide from about halfway. That probably wasn't ideal and he faded quite tamely as the pace dropped before increasing rapidly on the turn for home, as is often the case on the all-weather. He finished a 6.75 length 10 of 11 and proved a big disappointment, but he was entitled to need the run on the back of 6 months off the track.

Next up, just over 2 weeks ago, Wildcat Wizard made his return to the turf, where he proved to be a big disappointment in a 20 runner handicap at Doncaster, won by the ever progressing Horseradish. My selection came stone last having broke slowly before failing to pick up at all. He was allowed to come home at his own pace for the final 2 furlongs and rightly so. However, that was obviously not his true running and I don't think a flat, galloping track plays into his strengths. He has very impressive form in the Stewards' Sprint Handicap at Goodwood last July, where he finished 3rd of 27 off a 2lb higher mark. By right, he should of won and was unlucky to be denied a clear run through, before finishing with a late rattle to finish in the money. Ironically, 2 Dandy Nicholls trained horses occupied the positions ahead of him in that big handicap. Whilst that track isn't identical to Pontefract by any means, he does seem at his best on a sharp track and I feel the stiff uphill climb he faces today is exactly what's needed, rather than the downhill finish he relished on that day.

I've my own little theories about how races will pan out when they're run a certain way, and this race could be run relatively slow early on for a 6f sprint, before possibly turning into a 3f sprint. There's no real pace here, and from some of the videos I've watched, Wildcat Wizard can pick up better and quicker when they slow it down in front. There's a limited amount of races where this has happened and he has run some of his best races when getting a real toe into the race, but I just get the feeling a race run slow early and quick at the end could be his best chance of gaining a win since he won his opening 2 career starts. He was rated 101 in his prime and obviously well thought of, but things haven't worked out with regards to winning races. Nicholls will surely help to change that around and he comes up to Pontefract with just one runner. He does alright here, with a 10% strike rate overall and many more making the frame. Andrew Mullen is a very interesting booking and he has a 10% strike rate for Nicholls, with 13 wins, 11 seconds, 10 thirds and 19 fourths from 124 rides. They show a massive £80 LSP, but that's skewed by a 100/1 winner on the all-weather at Southwell.

This is Mullen's only ride of the day and he had a nice 18/1 winner with his last ride, so hopefully he'll follow up on that. Whether it's a booking that suggests the horse may be kept for a bigger race is debatable, but at the odds, I'll happily take a punt. The Nicholls stable are in top form in the past fortnight, with 10 wins from 52 runners, giving them a 19% strike rate and a LSP of +£39. They've started the season with a bang and should be monitored over the next few weeks, as I suspect he'll be tallying up quite a few more winners yet. I could list dangers all night here, but I've discounted plenty based on the track and likely pace. I've went out thinking races will be run slowly and they've ended up being run at a ferocious gallop, so that could happen again, but either way, Wildcat Wizard has enough about him to bounce back to form. The 16/1 available looks a tad generous, and personally, I've got him down as a 10/1 shot. I'm only playing small, tentative each-way stakes here, as there's too much up in the air about this race, but the horse has ability and is well handicapped on certain showings over the past couple of years. Hopefully he'll run to his merits and gallop up the hill in first place. I can dream!

That's my only bet today.

prospect

Thanks for yesterdays tips Pyro.

I am trying my own little log and used your tips for a small wager and they brought me back into the black.

Yay.

x PyRo

No luck yesterday but a much improved effort from Wildcat Wizard, who was only beaten 2½ lengths in the end. However, he could only manage 6th place in the end having raced quite keenly on the back of a slow early pace. I had expected it'd be slow but I didn't think that would affect him as much as it did. The blinkers seemed to have a good effect on him (bar possibly lighting him up a bit too much) and there's definitely a good handicap in him this year, assuming Dandy can bring him back to his old levels, which are very decent. He's now very well handicapped on plenty of his previous exertions so I'll certainly be on the lookout for him, possibly in a big field heritage handicap.

-2pts on the day.

2:00 Epsom - Beat The Bell - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (WillHill)

I'm quite keen on this fellows chances here, but the inclusion of his stablemate, who's partnered by Ryan Moore, is quite worrying. However, I do think that Beat The Bell should prove to be much better suited to this test here and I can see plenty of value in his current price of 10/1, compared to half that for his stablemate. Personally, I'd have them priced the other way around, but the Racing Post verdict person has napped Archers Road, which is most likely the reason he's being so well supported overnight. Regardless of that, Beat The Bell comes here on the back of an effort only a couple of lbs short of a career best run, and given the fact that it was his first run in 6 months, he's fully entitled to come on for it. That race was over the testing 5 furlongs at Beverley, where David Barron's charge took up the running going into the final furlong, hit 1.45 in running and finished 3rd, behind 2 animals he re-opposes here. The now 6 year old just didn't last home on the day and should strip much better for having had the run, especially now he's running at a track that I think is perfectly ideal for him. In the past, he's done all of his winning on turf at tracks like Chester, Windsor, Folkstone and Musselburgh, all of which are sharp tracks. Given that Epsom is the sharpest of them all, I think it could prove to be a perfect hunting ground for Beat The Bell, even though it is his first visit here and it's not an easy course to take to.

Before signing off 2010 with a 5f win at Musselburgh (beating Archers Road by a neck ironically), my selection had previously done all of his winning (7 races) over 6f, when trained by Jamie Osbourne. He moved to David Barron's yard after a disappointing effort in June, before reappearing in September at Musselburgh also. Beat The Bell was subject to a big gamble there, opening at 25/1 and going off at 10's, but luck wasn't on his side and he blew the start, which ain't handy over 5 furlongs, before running on very fast to finish a 1 length 4th, just missing out on landing each-way money. Barron then stepped him up to his favoured 6f trip for the Ayr Bronze Cup, where he was drawn 'wrong' side but managed to finish a close up 7th of 27, 3rd of 13 in his group. That was a fine effort off a 4lb lower mark than what he faces today and it was a clear indication that the wonderful David Barron had this horse back in good form, as he was rated 92 as a 3 year old before going on a long spell without success, although he was over-campaigned by Alan Bailey when trained by him.

Next time up was a return to Musselburgh, in a race that I've already just briefly mentioned. Beat The Bell was dropped back to 5f and well backed once again in search of his first win over the trip, opening at 6/1 before being punted on course into 7/2 favourite. He duly obliged, quickening well having been denied a clear run through inside the final furlong, but he showed the turn of foot and gear to suggest that he was an animal going places, and one possibly suited to the test he'll face today. He got up to beat Archers Road by a neck, but it would of been further if it wasn't for being short of room at one stage. My selection is now 3lbs worse off with that horse, but I'm of the opinion that this race will be run to suit my fellow and now his stablemate, who may find everything happening very fast, even though he's interesting in his own right. Graham Gibbons rides Beat The Bell today, and he boasts fine stats for Barron, with a 19% strike rate overall and a very impressive £50 LSP. Barron's yard are flying at the moment and with this fellow having a possible fitness edge on his stablemate, I think he could prove to be the number one choice of the in-form yard. They've only had 2 runners in the last 5 years here, with 1 winning. It looks interesting that they make the 500 mile round trip to come down and either one of their horses in this race will win, or Sirvino later on. This race should be run at a scorching pace early on, and that's exactly what my selection will thrive on. He sees out his races well when on song and I think he'll be staying on very well here. 10/1 is much too big and I think he could be a shade bigger in the morning too. Small-ish each-way stakes for me, but I really fancy him to run well if he takes to the track, which he should. Originally, I was quite keen on the chances of 40/1 shot Ghostwing, but he's so risky that I'm probably best stay clear, although he's bound to win now that I've said that! Silaah also as a chance and is one of my ten to follow, but I've got my reasons for thinking today won't be the day, so I'm swerving him too. I'm sticking with the master, David Barron, to do the job and hopefully I'm on the right horse.

UrbanSea

Aw man was just looking at Beat the Bell but I think that's the hardest race to call all day. I fancy Fratelino and Indian Days aswell,tough decisions

Joekers

I also fancy Silaath Nicholls only ride of the day. Tricast anyone :pac:

budgemook

Got him at 11/1. Small profit but profit nonetheless