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PyRo's Horse Bets.
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A small profit on Wednesday with Beat The Bell coming home in 2nd. He was quite unlucky to run into one who proved to be much too good, but that's how she goes. However, he probably ran close to a career best in chasing home the relative shock winner, Falasteen, who showed unbelievable speed to make all in a field full of potential pace setters. My selection had a poor draw and showed plenty of bright early speed to get a quite prominent position, before staying on well to come out of the pack and finish well clear of the 3rd positioned horse, who also ran a cracker.
I'm quite happy to have backed the right Barron horse, as I didn't really rate Archers Road's chance and he definitely didn't give his running, despite going off a well backed favourite. I'd imagine that wasn't stable money though, as my selection was backed on course and that was probably where Barron's cash was going. Both of his runners will win races this year, but the older horse, Beat The Bell, will prove to be the better animal in my opinion.
+2.25pts on the day and 3 profitable days from the last 4, which hasn't happened in an absolute age!
3:30 Folkstone - Waabel - 3pts @ 15/2 (VC)
I've missed the earlier 9/1 that was available for this fellow, but I still feel that he's significantly overpriced and definitely worth a shout in a race of this nature. Being a 7 runner race, there's no real point going each-way, but he could have a much great chance of winning than the current market expects. Jim Best's 4 year old, Waabel, has proved to be a good talent since reverting to sprinting trips on the all-weather, winning twice at Lingfield, a course which is notoriously tough to make all of the running at, but he managed to do exactly that, twice. The first of those runs was off a mark of 72, where he made every post a winning one, beating a couple of decent types in the process and looking value for further than the official ½ length winning margin. Next up, over the same C&D, Waabel showed bright early speed to get over from a poor draw to attempt to make all once again. However, his early exertions told as he was headed a furlong from home and then went on to lose 2nd place in the final couple of strides, but it wasn't a half bad effort at all.
He went up another lb on the back of that run and once again ran over 6f at Lingfield. This time, Waabel had a much more favourable draw in stall 2 and broke quickly to set out and make the running. He wasn't for catching this time and won a shade cosily, with many of his rivals failing to land a blow. A 4lb rise followed before running over the same C&D again but he couldn't get to lead from a poor draw and probably ran as well as expected given his preference to make the running. Connections then stepped him up to a class 4 contest, yet again at Lingfield over 6 furlongs. However, the race contained suicidal front runner, Billy Red, who blasted off in front and gave my selection absolutely no hope. It was a poor run from Jim Best's charge, but it has ensured that he's a nice price to land this contest and I think he'll have things to his liking.
This is the first time that Waabel has encountered 5 furlongs in his career, but given that he has showed so much bright early speed, including on turf, I'm of the opinion that it could see him in an even better light. He is bred to stay further, being a son of Najah, a Group 2 winning mare over 1m 2f, by an easy 4 lengths nonetheless. However, his sire, Green Desert, has bred many sprinters and if his sons record is anything to go by, he's passed on plenty of speed to him too. Lots of his progeny are fast ground horses too, so conditions over this trip could be exactly ideal for my selection, who only encountered this ground on 2 occasions before, over trips over 7 & 8 furlongs, which is too far for him evidently. His dam also won on fast-ish ground. Waabel has impressive form behind the likes of Kalk Bay, who has proved most progressive since and only bet my selection by a neck in a 7f contest at Chepstow.
I think this sharp track is perfectly ideal for Waabel. He should also be suited by the undulations of the course which suits his running style and given that he's drawn close to the favoured rail, he should be getting out to make all of the running. Paul Doe takes the ride and he boasts a fine record for the Jim Best yard, with 14 wins, 5 seconds and 10 thirds from just 53 rides, giving the pair a 26% strike rate and a £58 LSP. Best also has a fine record on course and this is possibly his best chance of a win today. Doe also gets on well with the horse having won on him three starts ago in that career-best effort, but as already explained, they had no luck last twice. I think they could be making it 2 from 4 here, with conditions ideal and a course to suit. 15/2 is a huge price and I reckon he could go off 4/1 or less. Diamond Johnny G also interested me at 16/1 and he's probably worth a tiny stake saver. However, I'll stick with Waabel and place a medium win stake on him gaining his first career win on turf, where he's unexposed and running over a sprint trip for the first time since making his racecourse debut for Michael Jarvis back in July of '09. He should go well here, but God knows what'll happen! That's my only bet of the day. It's quite a terrible card at Folkstone, bar this race, which should be interesting at least.0 -
Non-runner.0
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4:50 Sandown - Julienas - 1.5pts e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill)
Not a race for sizable stakes, but with 17 currently listed to go to post and 4 places available, I'm quite keen on the chance of Walter Swinburn's charge, Julienas, who fits the bill as a potential winner of this race. He's lightly raced, having only run on 6 occasions and I'm of the opinion that this fellow could end up in stakes races by the end of the season, as he does look supremely talented based on certain showings so far. How he has trained on over the winter is unknown as of yet, but he won after a longer break last year and I'd imagine this would be an ideal race to have him spot on for, despite it being so early on in the season.
Julienas only had 1 run as a 2 year old, over 7 furlongs at Kempton. He ran very green for half of that race, but stayed on in a very eye-catching fashion to finish a 4l 4th of 9, and he was sure to go on to bigger and better things. That was in October of '09, and he didn't reappear until July of 2010. This time he tackled a mile for the first time, which he's bred to get handily enough. He had obviously filled out quite well and looked to be a nice, long and strong type. Connections got stuck into him in the betting and he eventually went off as the 2/1 favourite in the 13 runner maiden at Windsor. Adam Kirby, who's on board today too, rode him in behind the leaders and produced him to lead just over 2f from home. He eventually ran out a very ready 3l winner and was probably value for further. That effort was deemed worthy of an opening handicap mark of 84 and he lined out over todays C&D to make it 2 from 3. Connections backed him once again and he was sent off as the 6/1 favourite in a 15 strong field. However, it was a much more difficult task than he faced at Windsor and he could only manage a 3½ length 5th place. Immaturity and a lack of experience probably took its toll though, as he held his head quite awkwardly throughout and ran quite well considering. He stuck to the task very well too, and it was definitely another positive effort from the now 4 year old.
Another run over the same C&D, this time in a handicap against horses of his own age. Julienas finished a 1l 2nd but showed a very game attitude to rally having been headed over 2f out. He set out to make all that day and once headed, looked likely to drop away, but to his credit, he stayed there battling on for the final quarter mile. The final ½ mile at Sandown takes a lot of getting, so that made the feat even more impressive, and one that could stand him in good stead here, especially considering how he improved when next seen over 1m 2f at Kempton. Julienas routed a 12 strong field, including older horses than himself, and it was very impressive, as he did stray over to the near side rail under pressure but he showed a very nice turn of foot to put the race to bed, despite being a horse who'd be more of a relentless galloper than a horse that would have an instant turn of foot. However, the extra 2f obviously helped him, but given the testing nature of todays track, I think a mile around here will also be spot on. The horse returned to turf and upped 11lbs in weight for the win. He faced a mile and 2 furlongs on turf for the first time, but it was in soft ground, which didn't seem to suit at all (as breeding would suggest) and he faded tamely under pressure to finish 10th of 16. I'd consider that run a complete write off and definitely not a true reflection of this horses ability. Being out of Cape Cross, ability to handle soft ground was always a slight worry, and I think that the return to a quick surface is exactly what he's crying out for. Although his dam won a 6f Group 2 on good to soft.
Adam Kirby, who rode this fellow on every one of his career starts is in the saddle again, and he hops off Dunn'o to do so. Kirby won this race in '09 on this fellow and finished a close up 3rd last year, so maybe it's a positive thing, or else I'm just reading into it too much. I dunno! However, this is his only ride of the day at a track where he has a fine 14% strike rate and a £48 LSP. Swinburn has a 15% strike rate here and also shows a tidy profit to LSP, although Kirby rode most of those winners so it's no surprise. This is the only runner they bring down today and I think it's a realistic early target for the 92 rated animal, who I believe could be a 100+ rated type by the end of the year. He's well drawn in stall 12, likely to enjoy how the race will be run, has C&D experience, sees out the trip well and has a game attitude. Fitness is the only thing that's up for debate but he won first time up last year and may not take a lot of getting ready given his shape. He's sure to progress even further and I think that 14/1 is overstating his realistic chances of success here. The race is littered with dangers, so I'm not going to go into detail about them but I feel that Julienas will land some tasty prizes this year, and if he doesn't win today, I'll be compensated some day soon. Small-ish each-way stakes for me and it's my only bet of the day, which is rare for a Saturday.0 -
Another few quid added to the kitty as Julienas finishes in 3rd place to land each-way spoils. He was available at 20/1 throughout the day, but came in for strong support in the last 10 minutes to go off at 8/1, and favourite on the exchange. He wasn't positioned as handily as I thought and he took up a position wide in mid-div, which probably wasn't ideal. However, he ran on strongly up the hill to grab a place on the line, having been given a fairly considerate ride. Kirby only gave him a couple of smacks with the whip, which he responded to excellently, and it's quite possible that he'd of been closer if he got a handier sit early on.
I can't complain though, and it's a nice few quid back despite a 10p R4 too. This horse will be (IMO) rated 100+ by the end of the season and there's definitely a big handicap in him, from anywhere from 1m to 1m 2f (track dependent), possibly even a bit further, given how he finishes his races. He's entitled to come on for that run too, so it was extremely encouraging and I'll definitely back him again at some stage, hopefully when he wins!
+3.22pts on the day (inc. 10p R4), and 4 profitable days from the last 5. Thank God for the flat being back, I loves it! Hopefully the winners will be following soon, but for now, the places are providing a decent return.
Stats et all to be updated later.0 -
4:10 Musselburgh - Sioux Rising - 1.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)
A solid pace to run at and a sharp track seems to be exactly what this 5 year old mare requires, and that's exactly what she gets here. However, on first looks and jockey bookings, it seems like Sioux Rising is the second string horse for the Richard Fahey stable, who also runs another mare here and that one is partnered by Paul Hanagan, but I think he's on the wrong horse, as mad as that sounds. It doesn't really bother me who's on board, but it seems to be the main reason why she's currently available at 16/1, a price that I'd consider much too big, even though the trainers intentions is pure guesswork. She was the stables apparent second string before when finishing 2nd at 28/1 in a similarly hot handicap, with Hanagan on board the 3/1 Fahey trained favourite, who finished a head back in 3rd. Incidentally, Tony Hamilton was the man on board Sioux Rising back then, and he's on for the first time since, which I'm hoping proves to be a good omen. She most certainly has things to suit here and my only worry is what way the ground is, which is deemed to be good-to-soft (good-in-places) on one site, with the other saying it's good (good-to-firm). That's quite annoying but I'd imagine the ground will be pretty decent and my selection is quite adaptable with regards to ground.
Overall, Sioux Rising has performed to her best at 6f, with both of her wins coming over that distance. However, both of them wins were at Pontefract, a track with a premium on stamina. The Musselburgh 7f that she faces today should be ideal and I fancy the track to suit perfectly too. She has run good races over this trip and I've seen many a race where I thought she'd be better upped in trip on a quicker track. She is on a long losing run, stretching back to her third career start, when landing a similar handicap from a 3lb lower mark. She needed all of the 6f at Pontefract to get up that day and I'm surprised she hasn't been tried over 7f more often. Despite failing to win in her last 15 starts, she does have 4 seconds and 2 thirds to her name, including a few races where she was probably a bit unlucky not to win. Her attitude is perfect and now all she needs is a little bit of luck to get her head in-front. Her draw today makes things difficult, as she's out wide, but she has plenty of early speed, certainly enough to get a relatively handy position in the field.
She's had her problems in the past, notably a back injury between her 3 & 4 year old season, which caused her to miss a year. The now 5 year old came back as good as ever and probably put in a career best performance when finishing 2nd over a fairly sharp 6f at Ripon on the back of that injury, with Tony Hamilton on board. Sioux Rising is clearly talented, but somewhat luckless given her determined attitude. I'm of the opinion that she doesn't have enough speed to reach her potential off this mark over 6 furlongs, but a truly run 7f on a quick track will be perfect, as she's only encountered this trip on 4 occasions, twice on galloping tracks and twice on the all-weather. She has certain pieces of form, both on the AW and flat, that would give her much more solid claims here than her 16/1 price tag suggests, but she's most likely priced on the jockey booking and not her raw ability. She's only had 11 runs on the flat, so she's fairly unexposed and still open to a bit more, especially under todays conditions. Her yard continues to be in fine form, with 12 winners from their last 40 runners in the past fortnight, giving them a wonderful 30% strike rate with a +£41 LSP. When Tony Hamilton rides for Fahey at this track he has a 12% strike rate, which is very decent by his standards. I wouldn't know too much about him but he gave this horse a good ride before and will hopefully do so again. I could say plenty more and go through her form in detail, but I'm quite lazy tonight! She's definitely worth a chance here though, as she's fit, suited by conditions, a potential improver over the trip, at the track and in a race like this. 16/1 is value and she should only be 10's, at most. Small-ish each-way stakes for me and one I think could pick up a place handily enough, if she runs to her ability. There's plenty of dangers, which is why I'm not staking more but this one is definitely a lively candidate and has pretty good recent form figures when things haven't been against her (like the ground LTO). Hopefully she'll run well.0 -
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I think this might be one I will be lumping on, best of luck sir.0
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Nice one pyro, ran a cracking race. A few more yards and he would have had the win!0
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Lovely stuff0
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N1 sir long may it last.0
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Yesterday I was happy getting returns from placed runners, but now it's starting to piss me off. Yet again, another selection finishes close up but doesn't win. Sioux Rising was well supported to go off 9/1 and despite the jockey bookings, she proved to be the main Fahey horse by the looks of it. However, with the main pacemaker declared a non-runner earlier on in the day, they didn't go overly fast early on, which meant my selection could get a nice sit in behind the leader (both whom weren't drawn well) in a race where racing handily was a positive.
Sioux Rising was probably the last one off the bridle, but she took her time picking up before responding quite well to pressure. I still think it would of proved more suitable if she had a good gallop to run at but the way things panned out weren't too bad and she held every chance of winning. The winner, who made all, repelled her very gamely and eventually won by a head, with Tony Hamilton and Sioux Rising back in 2nd. It's still a tasty return from a 16/1 shot but she could of, and probably should of won.
There's no faulting her efforts though and I'm sure she'll break her losing streak before too long, as she's well handicapped, talented, not overly exposed and game. A sharp track is key though, and I wouldn't be overly keen on her if she was running on an out-and-out galloping track. She definitely deserved a win though and it'll be interesting to see whether Paul Hanagan will hop back on board any time soon, as he has proved to be the only man to be capable of unlocking the door for her.
Of the rest, Silver Rime shaped well back in 5th and it may be worth keeping an eye on him next time out, assuming the ground isn't too fast. He seemed to need the run today and did so last year too, so to finish as close up in a race that wasn't run to suit was commendable. A truly run 7f on a testing track or even a mile will see him in a better light and I'll probably be on him at some stage this season.
+4.50pts on the day, but it could of been a lot better. I'll definitely update the stats soon, probably tomorrow. No selections for tomorrow either, there's numerous pints with my name on them tonight! A day off would do no harm either and it's pretty boring stuff tomorrow too.0 -
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4:50 Ascot - Ahlawy - 1pt e/w @ 33/1 (WillHill)
Tentative is definitely the best way to describe this bet and it'll probably be the end of my place streak, but 33/1 looks to be a monster price in my opinion, so I'll go for it! Ahlawy is trained by Frank Sheridan, who wouldn't have many very good animals and this heavily campaigned 8 year old is definitely one of his better runners. The majority of his better runs in the last few years have come on the all-weather, but he won on the turf twice last year, albeit from 9 & 10lb lower marks. However, being a horse who needs a bit of cover to be at his best, this 20 runner field could bring out the best in him and the current fast ground is exactly what he needs on turf. He stays further this this 1 mile quite easily, but has won over 7f and most recently over an extended mile at Wolverhampton. I'm of the opinion that the relatively stamina testing mile on the Ascot track, which is galloping in nature, is also ideal, plus he'll get a solid pace to run at, which is also needed. Everything points to this race being run to suit perfectly, but the main question is whether this horse is good enough, and I think he could just be, despite getting on in years.
The Frank Sheridan yard had a terrible time of it for about 2 years, with a virus continuing to affect his horses and force them to move badly. He moved his base to Averham Park at the back end of '09, had an average season in 2010, but has since seen his relatively modest string of animals begin to run very, very well. Since the beginning of 2011, Sheridan has had 52 runners, with 12 winners, giving him a highly impressive 23% strike rate and a +£51 LSP so far. A further 23 of his runners have finished either second, third or fourth, and he clearly has overcome his problems after an original bright start back in '08, having moved over from Italy, where he trained horses for many a year. The man can certainly train horses, and it looks as if he's managing to get that little bit of luck required to get winners too. Hopefully he'll be adding another one here.
Ahlawy won his penultimate start, at a tasty price of 11/1, having been well punted in from an opening show of 18's. The race wasn't run to suit, as they went quite slow early on, before quickening from the front a couple of furlongs from home, as is typical on the all-weather. However, James Doyle, who was on board that day, had Sheridan's charge nicely positioned on the inside through, just stalking the leader, a move that paid dividends as Ahlawy came up the unfavoured inside position to lead inside the final strides. That was a cracking run and one of his best performances for a long time, with the tongue-tie/blinker combination seemingly working wonders for him. He won in that combination of headgear 4 times before, all back in '09, and it seems to help him pull out a lot more in the finishing stages of races. This is the first time he'll be wearing it in a turf handicap (wore it in 3 claimers, form ; 6-2-2), so hopefully it'll prove as effective once more. His run off a 2lb higher mark last time out was disappointing, but I believe there's valid excuses. It was a 5 runner race, which wasn't ideal for a start, but to make it worse, it was over an extended 1m 4f trip, which is much too far for this fellow. A truly run mile in a big field is what I'm expecting to be his optimum, but a good break will be required, which is always the risk with this horse. He's often very slowly away, which if occurring here, will effectively blow his chance before the race has got interesting. However, a quick break, and a handy sit in behind the leaders, will see him in a much better light, especially as he's bound to get plenty of cover.
My good mate, Jamie Spencer, is on board Ahlawy for the first time ever. Spencer is riding very well of late and I'm starting to warm to him again, despite having my heart shattered into pieces by him on a fair few occasions. He's still pure class on his day though and he's most certainly an interesting jockey booking, on what is his only ride here before setting off for only one more at another meeting. Jamie has only ridden for Sheridan on one occasion, resulting in a 2nd place, so hopefully he can go one better here on this occasionally talented animal. He'll have his work cut out, as the horse seems to be the type to take notions, but he does respond well to pressure when everything's lined up to suit, and I think it is here, although I could be very wrong. He's drawn in stall 20, which is a grand place to be given that I expect most of the pace to come from the higher drawn runners. It's a wide-open class 4 contest, with too many dangers to list, but Ahlawy is a 5 time winner in this grade, and although he has never defied a mark this high, his yards recent return to form leaves cause for hope. They make a near 300 mile round trip to visit a track they've come to once and I believe it's one that'll play into the horses hooves perfectly. There's a few ways this race could pan out, and a couple involve my selection coming near the rear of the field, but I think that 33/1 is certainly worth taking a chance on. He has belied big odds before and could do so again, with plenty in his favour. I wouldn't be surprised to see him halve in price, as I think that'd be a true reflection of his chances, but I'm playing small, tentative, each-way stakes, in the hope that he'll show his best form and win this open contest. Plenty of the opposition will need the run, come here out of form, or will have different targets for the season. This is a big race for this horse and probably his best chance of landing a prize over £5k, although it's not much over it mind! Hopefully he'll run well, but it's one to go into very cautiously. That's my only bet of the day, which is a pity, as there's some good racing, but I just can't solve the other ones. Quite fancied Zacinto in one of the earlier races but he's no price and very dodgy nowadays. If he turns up in good knick, he'll hammer them, but God only knows what he'll do. Definitely one of the biggest let downs around.0 -
Ahlawy NR0
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3:15 Leicester - Flowing Cape - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (WillHill)
Plenty of pace on in this competitive 6 furlong sprint, and I reckon it'll set everything up for a horse who's almost sure to be staying on strongly from the back. The one that I fancy to land the spoils is Reg Hollinshead's talented 6 year old, Flowing Cape, who usually races over furthers, but could prove to be highly suited to this test. The Leicester course does take a fair bit of getting despite being galloping in nature, with the first 2f of the last 2½f being gradually uphill, before finishing on level ground. It's a fair test on the back of a normal gallop, but with a race containing the likes of the trailblazing Peter Island, usual front-runner Norville, and a couple of others who like to press, I'm expecting it to be fast and furious. The type of horse I want for this is one who can travel on the back of a rapid gallop, stay further than the bare 6 furlongs, and one who enjoys the ups-and-downs (which aren't overly severe) of the Leicester track. It is a risk that everything will be happening too quickly for Flowing Cape, but he's usually a very strong traveler, finds a lot for pressure, and has a good finishing kick regardless of how the race is run. However, he does seem the type that would thrive off a gallop like this over this trip on turf, and now he'll get the chance to prove it. Small fields are also ideal for this horse, who often finds trouble in running, and despite having raced 36 times in his career, he's not exposed at this trip, nor overly exposed on turf with his optimum conditions, as he has run just over half his career races on the all-weather.
When I say that he's not overly exposed on turf with his optimum conditions - I mean that he needs fast ground, need to get a very good toe into the race and needs a small field to run in. Flowing Cape's record on turf, in races with 9 runners or less, reads ; 2-3-2, including one run over this trip as a 2 year old. That day, my selection was beaten by a horse called Stimulation, who later went on to contest the 2,000 Guineas in '08, before landing a Group 2 later on in the year. Whilst that form isn't exactly worthwhile a few years later, Reg Hollinshead's charge ran a very classy type to a neck over this trip, and they were well clear (3½l) of a horse now rated as a 108 sprinter out in Dubai. As I say, it's not overly relevant but my selection was bound to go on to better things, and he hasn't. However, being back at class 4 level, over a track where he goes well and off an attractive handicap mark, he could well gain his 4th career win, which is a disappointing tally given his clear ability. Also, given that he was once rated 95 on the all-weather (88 on turf), and now runs off 79, he could prove to be massively well in if my suspicions that a race run like this will see him run to a mark higher than he's currently rated. Everything's in his favour here, with the only thing I'm worried about being some of the opposition, who are quite decent, including more than a few potential improver's.
Recently, 2 weeks ago, Flowing Cape made his seasonal comeback at this course, over a furlong further. However, and for some unknown reason, connections decided to run their 79 rated animal in a Listed contest, where he was sent off as a 100/1 shot. He ran quite well for a long time, but class eventually told and he faded out of it to come 10th of 10, in a good race. The 3rd placed horse has since come out and won a Listed contest by 6 lengths, and given that my selection was only 7 lengths behind him, it wasn't a half-bad run at all and I'd imagine he ran well above his current rating. That gives plenty of cause for hope back in a contest like this, and I really think the trip, combined with the solid pace, will prove to be perfect. He has shown exceptional tactical speed over this trip before, on the back of a really strong pace too, but that was around Wolverhampton 2 years ago, where he shaped as being Listed class at least, in a race where he won easily. Whether he can transfer that over to fast ground on the turf, over this trip, is up for debate, but he has shown some nice bits of form on the turf before and could just benefit from having less opposition to run through. A prominent position wouldn't be a bad thing either, as he has shown before, and I'm quite intrigued to see what Reg Hollinshead will instruct George Baker to do. Bakes was on last time out too, for the second time in the horses career (close 5th on other occasion), and he looks to be an interesting enough booking, as he's certainly a top notch jockey, although he does ride another one of the stables animals, albeit one I wouldn't give too much hope to. He only comes to Leicester for 2 rides though and seems to ride quite well here.
Flowing Cape stays further quite comfortably, but he does look to have plenty of versatility with regards to trip, having run well between 6 & 9 furlongs. There's no point going over it all again though! His course record on Good-to-Firm ground reads ; 4-1-3-2, showing he clearly loves the track. This is the first time he steps below 7f at this course, and I'm hoping it could bring out further improvement, especially given how things should, and could, pan out. His trainer has a fine record here in recent years and seems to have his stable in good order. Having had a recent run, we could well see a very good improvement from Flowing Cape, although all bar one have had a recent run. Of the rest, Galatian and Absa Lutte would be my idea of fair dangers given how things will go, but I fancy Reg Hollinshead's charge to enhance his more than decent course record and take the step back in trip in his stride. 10/1 looks too good to be true, and I'd of thought he'd be 6/1 at most. I'd normally stake a little higher on a horse so overpriced (IMO) but I'll play it carefully this time and use small enough each-way stakes. Flowing Cape has huge claims on his best form, although it comes over further on turf, and on the all-weather at this trip. However, he's clearly talented and holds every trait that you'd want in a race like this, assuming it goes as I expect, so hopefully he'll oblige. This is my only bet of the day, before a great days racing on Saturday, where I'm opposing the "superstar", Frankel, in the 2,000 Guineas, with a very attractively priced outsider.0 -
Afraid youve been given the kiss of death today again Pyro.
Although hes doing well this week so you never know.0 -
PP Special,
If your horse finishes second to Rum King in the 3:15 then your bet will be refunded.
Only trouble is Flowing Cape has gone in to 4/1 FAV. Got him at 15/2 myself0 -
Hugh's at it again.
*lays*0 -
Frustrating, frustrating, frustrating, again. Flowing Cape, punted from 10's into 3/1, thanks to Hugh Taylor, looked the most likely winner a long way from home. He cruised into contention just over a furlong out and looked sure to overtake Norville, the winner, who had been under pressure for a long way. However, he just wouldn't go past and settled for a ½ length 2nd. Both are clearly well handicapped horses and finished 6 lengths clear of the rest, so I'd fancy each of them to run good races next time out, depending on where they run of course. Flowing Cape has buckets of talent, but his will to win isn't overly strong by the looks of it and he may prove tough to win with. Cue a next time out demolition job!
I just can't get winners. Of my last 10 selections, 1 has won (Rimth, 13/2), 7 have placed (10/1, 25/1, 8/1, 10/1, 14/1, 16/1 & 10/1), with just 2 unplaced. It has been profitable mind, but so frustrating. The majority have traded odds-on, looked the likely winner, and lost. That's how it goes, but with a bit more luck, I'd be sitting pretty with a fair few more winners than I've had. Regardless of that, 6 of the last 7 punting days have been profitable for me, and I'm +30.72pts for the season, so all's not too bad. A few winners would be welcomed though. Hopefully they'll come tomorrow. Stats will be updated soon I promise, just haven't had a chance to go through it all, but I will after Sunday.
+1.50pts on the day.0 -
Keep 'em coming.0
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I'll try!
2:00 Newmarket - Sand Skier - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)
A competitive, wide-open and exciting looking class 2 handicap to kick us off tomorrow. It's over 1m 1f on the Rowley Mile course and the one I'm quite keen on is Mark Johnston's consistent 4 year old Sand Skier, who doesn't win as often as he should, but holds plenty of raw ability and more than enough to go close here. The one thing holding me back is the distinct lack of obvious pace in the race, and that's not a plus for my selection, who does like a good toe into contention, but he may still be worth siding with, despite having to face 18 other rivals. There is the possibility that Richard Hills could set out to make all on this gelding, but ideally, he'd like to be in behind a decent pace before making his move in the closing stages. Regardless of that, this race is filled with horses who'll need a good gallop, and it seems to be the same scenario for the majority of the field. Hopefully something will bowl along in-front at a good early pace, but it's doubtful, hence the tentative stakes.
Sand Skier comes here race fit, having run just 10 days ago over 1m 2f at Epsom. He was well punted to make a winning return to these shores, having opened at 13/2 before being backed into 9/2 favourite. However, the track certainly isn't for everyone, and he just didn't handle it, losing his position a long way from home before fading tamely 3f out. Frankie Dettori was on board that day and let him come home at his own pace, clearly saving him for another day. Given that he hasn't had an overly hard race, I'm expecting a much better performance here, even though it's not long since he ran. Given his overall profile, he seems to take racing quite well anyways, so that won't be a valid excuse. Sand Skier looked very well that day though, having run a month earlier out in France (came 2nd), but I'll happily put that run down to the track. He's also dropped 2lbs for having run so poorly, and that's another plus.
Today, he'll be running off a mark of 88, which looks a very winnable mark given that he's placed in a similarly hot C&D handicap off a mark of 90, on soft ground. Sand Skier dead-heated for second, just a short-head behind Sarrsar, a very decent type. My selection was hampered that day and looked likely to fade out of contention, but he rallied to put on the pressure as they met the rising ground, seeing out the trip very well, which is needed at this course. The return to quicker ground at Newmarket should prove to be a plus, and I can definitely seeing him getting involved once again, assuming things don't go completely against him. His ability to pick up on the back of slower early fractions does seem to increase on better ground, and this is the first time he encounters good ground on the Rowley Mile. He ran again over C&D later in the season, but faded tamely and probably had enough of the racing game at that stage, having endured quite a tough season. He ran 9 times all-in-all, failing to get his head in-front but he ran well in the main. He's very likely to make a much better 4 year old and hopefully it'll start with victory here.
The Mark Johnston yard aren't banging in the winners of late, but many of their animal have run well, whilst shaping as if in need of the run too. This fellow should come on from his recent runs, but how much is yet to be seen. Johnston won this race last year with Tartan Gigha, who also runs here, but I'm not overly keen on his chances. I don't usually back history to repeat itself, but this race usually goes to progressive 4 or 5 year olds, and Johnston has one of the former on the prowl here today, so hopefully he can take advantage again. Sand Skier has everything you'd want in a potential winner of this race and there's most certainly races in him off this sort of mark, whether it's one as competitive as this is yet to be seen, but the horses ability can't be questioned and the only reason he's 16/1 is due to that flop last time out, which was perfectly understandable as far as I can see. Richard Hills, who takes the reins for the first time on this fellow, boasts a good recent record at the course, having had 36 winners from his last 200 rides, giving him a fine 18% strike rate and a small LSP. He's not a jockey I'm overly keen on, but he's reasonably good and will hopefully enhance his already impressive record for the yard. Of the rest, Breakheart and Buaiteoir rate as dangers, but so do the rest of the field. It's a massively wide-open contest and one I'm only comfortable playing small enough each-way stakes in. I'd rate Sand Skier as a 10/1 shot on his best form, with claims for him being even shorter. I'd most certainly go in heavier if the pace was assured, but it's not, even though something could set off to make it a decent test. The return to Newmarket, quick ground and the big field are all in this fellow favour. Hopefully he'll take full advantage, as he deserves to get his head in-front once again.0 -
(Qipco 2,000 Guineas)
3:10 Newmarket - Loving Spirit - 0.5pts e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365)
There's a fair chance that most people not backing Frankel are just playing for the 2 places in behind. However, I'm not overly convinced that Henry Cecil's potential superstar is unbeatable just yet, purely as he hasn't faced a truly run race. It's all well and good destroying everyone around when the early fractions are very sedate, but can he do it if they go at it from the off? Who knows. There's a fair chance that this won't be run frantically from the off, but it should be set up quite well by the likes of Rerouted, who seems to be included to set it all up for the hot favourite. Frankel is clearly a horse with the most amazing speed and acceleration, but to date, that's all been off a slowly run pace in small fields. Fair enough, he hasn't settled in the majority of his races and still won with absolute ease, and a good gallop would be ideal, but does that take away his most potent weapon? Possibly. I'm not saying he won't win, because in all probability he will win, but I wouldn't take 4/7 about this horse in a million years. Although I wouldn't take that price about any horse nowadays. His ability is undoubted, his ability to be at his best under these race conditions is, and for that reason, I'm fancying an upset on the cards. There's a fair chance it won't be my selection that'll win, but I think he can nab one of the places if all goes well.
The one that I'm quite keen on is James Toller's potentially classy type, Loving Spirit, who will probably end up being a very useful middle-distance horse. However, I'm of the opinion that he's overlooked too easily here and could really be anything. Given that he's only run twice, he hasn't shown his all to date, but what he has shown has really impressed me. First time up he ran over 7f at this course, late on in the season. It was quite soft ground that day and he tackled a 17 runner maiden first time up, which looked a tough task. James Toller isn't too bad with his 2 year old and he clearly had this fellow spot on, as he was well-backed and duly obliged in a most impressive fashion. He sat in behind the leaders and traveled supremely throughout, before moving into contention with relative ease. In the end, Loving Spirit ran out a very easy 5 length winner, despite running as if he didn't know what was going on, although that's understandable. It wasn't a bad maiden by any means and plenty of the runners should make good animals, but Toller's charge will be the best of them. He put in a performance that would see him rated near 100 and done that all despite shaping as if he'd be a better horse on a sound surface, as his dam was.
He disappointed next time out when upped in class and trip (over todays C&D), but it was still a very good effort given his inexperience. 2nd place was all he could muster, having made his charge on what may have been an unfavoured strip of ground down the centre of the course, and despite holding every chance a furlong from home, the winner had soon flown to a 2.25l victory. James Toller has come out on record and said he believed his then 2 year old colt couldn't handle running a second race in the space of 2 weeks, and that could be a valid excuse, as I'd of fully expected him to be the best horse in that race. Toller has also said that Loving Spirit has strengthened up well over the winter and he definitely looked as if there was plenty of scope for improvement in his frame last year, so we could see a different animal over the course of 2011. Toller also admits that he's probably aiming a bit high in taking on Frankel here, but he expects a decent run and so do I. The horse should make a cracking 1m 2f to 1m 4f horse, but for now, a truly run mile should be alright. He obviously handles the track and goes well fresh, as his trainer also stated, so a good run could be on the cards. This horse could be anything and although he has plenty of stamina in his blood, his sire, Azamour, wasn't half bad over a mile. The 66/1 price tag is very attractive (much bigger on the exchange) and I think he could run himself into a place if all goes well. There's plenty of other opposition for the places, but this fellow is talented, unexposed, and should make a much better 3 year old. I'm playing the smallest of small each-way stakes on him, as Frankel should and probably will win, but I'd have my doubts. I'm probably wrong to have doubts about him, but until he does it on the back of a solid gallop (in a top race obviously!), I'll be a non-believer.0 -
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I presume youve spotted it but Ladbrokes are quoting 20/1 3places without Frankel about LS.
Edit: Stan James 40/1 w/o fav but I dont have an account with them.0 -
Sure have. Thought I'd be greedy!
(Palace House Stakes)
3:45 Newmarket - Mister Hughie - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)
A fast, furious and very exciting Group 3 contest is in order here, with plenty of good sprinters coming to Newmarket to contest this £28,000 prize. The one I'm most interested in is my good friend Mister Hughie, who I've backed on numerous occasions. He has recently moved from Mick Channon's yard and now runs for Tim Easterby, a man who knows how to get the most out of a sprinter. This horse is an odd one, as he takes a long time to get going, much like a diesel engine! However, when in top gear, he can mix it with the best, as proven when finishing a forever diminishing 1 length (4th) behind Borderlescott in the Group 2 King George Stakes over 5f at Goodwood. The sharp track suited my selection that day, but he has won on his only visit to the Rowley course, and I'm taking a chance on him making it 2 from 2. That race was over 6f in a handicap, where my selection for todays race was running off a mark of 95. He beat 18 rivals home that day and belied odds of 25/1 to do so. He has progressed since, winning a Listed race at Beverley from Prohibit by a neck, although it would of been further with a clear run initially. He re-opposes both of those horses now, but looks to be a much more attractive price than them.
Mister Hughie comes here on the back of 6 month break, but he won that handicap last year on his seasonal reappearance, off a near identical layoff. This is obviously much, much tougher, but I'm full sure there's a Group race in him some day and he has ideal conditions to contend with. They'll go at it straight from the off and Tim Easterby's charge will probably be somewhat detached at the rear of the field, as he so often is, but one he hits top gear, I expect he'll be flying home late under the guidance of the brilliant Tom Queally, who takes the ride on him for the first time. Queally is one of my favourite jockeys and looks to have an excellent day ahead of him, with odds-on Frankel lining up in the proceeding race. He could come into this race having won the 2,000 Guineas and he's bound to be full on confidence if he does so. That will surely bode well for Mister Hughie, who does need expert handling if he's to be at his best. He's a tricky ride and an odd horse, but there's no doubting that he's an absolute speedball when he gets going. The track is grand for him, as he sees out 6f quite readily, and the uphill finish at Newmarket will play to his strengths. He is better on a quicker track though, but galloping tracks don't seem to both him too much, having won at Bath, Haydock and over the July course here. There's potentially more to come from this horse as a 4 year old and I think this is the year that he'll get that elusive Group race, although he has only lined up in 6 of them. I'm not going into too much detail, as I've posted plenty about him in the past, but he's more than capable of getting involved here if he doesn't need the run, and at odds of 20/1, he's worth a small each-way bet to make the frame. Hopefully he'll run well, because if he does, the sight of seeing him fly up the hill to win very late on will be thrilling and hopefully we'll get the chance to see it.0 -
Hope the greed pays off lol. Ive done it both ways just in case.
Also have sniper trained on HT if he gets any notions in the morning.0 -
Doubt we'll need it tomorrow. :pac:
3:35 Thirsk - Oratory - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)
I'm heading over to Thirsk for my fourth and final bet of the day, with this selection coming in the Class 2 Hunt Cup over 1 mile at this fairly sharp track. The one I find of interest is the fairly lightly raced recent addition to Geoffrey Harker's yard, Oratory, who made his seasonal bow over 7f at this track just 3 weeks ago. He was very well punted that day, having been a double figure price in the morning, before eventually going off as the 4/1 favourite of 13. He started slowly in a race where he'd of liked to be a lot better positioned, and he never really improved from his sit towards the rear of the field, eventually finishing a 9½ lengths 8th place. Despite all of that, his new connections, who forked out 44,000 GNS to acquire him, should of learned a lot more from that run and I'm expected the could be in line to land this £13,000 pot. Everything was probably happening too quickly for him regardless and I'm banking on the step up to a mile to do the trip, as it looks to be his optimum and given the nature of the track, I think that he'll prove to be right at home. The sound surface should also play into his strengths and it's likely that they'll go a decent gallop from the off. Assuming he can get a better sit in behind the leaders, I'm hopeful that he'll be running on well towards the end, hopefully into a place at least.
Given that Oratory is rated 90, there's not a whole lot of room for maneuver with him. However, he has been competitive off higher marks and may just have a win in him off something around what he's currently rated. Michael O'Connell also takes off a valuable 3lbs from his claim. He seems to be riding well of late and has run close to winning on a couple of the stables animals of late, so hopefully he'll do so again. Oratory is a former Richard Hannon trained horse, and one they expected a fair bit of a couple of years ago. He obviously hasn't lived up to expectation but a change in stable could bring more out of him in the long term. He has been consistent in the main before this and although he hasn't won very often (only once), he does hold a fair level of ability, and remains quite unexposed, especially over the trip. That recent run should bring him on a fair bit and the big field here is in his favour. A truly run mile on a sharp track will probably prove to be his optimum and if the jockey can give him a competent ride, I see no reason why he can't belie odds of 18/1 here. I'm tired so I'm not going to go into too much detail, but on his best form, this fellow has very good claims, certainly not those of an 18/1 shot. He's worth a small each-way go here and I wouldn't be surprised to see him win. Hopefully he'll run well.0 -
Steady up fella, I believe you forgot somebody in the 14:05 maiden hurdle at Uttoxeter
In fairness I'm a big fan of the Maguire/McCain combination but I don't think I could put any faith in that pig again :pac:0 -
Best o luck Pyro.
Couldnt resist a 12cent e/w L15 as well as the singles. One winner and my money is back. Four winners and Ive 65k lol.
Might invite you down in July if that happened :-D0 -
Haha I just knew you'd go for Mister Hughie0
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Haha I just knew you'd go for Mister Hughie
spotted him myself last night and couldnt resist a bet at 25 on betfair.. I think hes a flawed genius but hopefully the new stable will have settled him down a bit and being a year older and wiser he should surely be getting the hang of the stalls by now!0 -
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I never realised he was only 4. Good luck,I've backed Borderlescott. Back him every time without fail.0
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This discussion has been closed.
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