PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo · 30-04-2011 4:42pm

Poor showing. Sand Skier ran well enough to come 7th. He wasn't given an overly hard time of it when losing his position coming into the dip and he'll be of interest again at some stage.

Loving Spirit was reluctant to go into the stalls but eventually went in. It probably would of been better if he didn't go in, as Frankel made sure nobody had a hope of getting involved. It was a stunning performance, and I'm now a believer! I certainly didn't picture him making his own running mind!

Oratory was withdrawn at the start, probably didn't go into the stalls, but I didn't see the race. He had drifted out to 33/1 anyways and probably wouldn't of got involved. Money back on him anyways.

Mister Hughie was disappointing but he's entitled to come on for the run and I'll definitely be backing him again. He definitely has the ability to get involved in one of these races and it was a relatively encouraging run, for a while at least.

-5pts on the day, could of been worse I suppose!

Stat Attack -

Bank - 239.54pts (+139.54pts)

2011 Flat Stats - +25.72pts

Bets - 33
Wins - 3
Placed - 10
Win SR - 9%
Staked - 82.00pts
Returned - 107.72pts
ROI - 31.5%

Happy enough with that start, especially after the NH. The winners will come soon I hope.

Roll on May.

x PyRo · 01-05-2011 12:55am

2:05 Newmarket - Sharaayeen - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)

I hate backing favourites, especially in a race of this nature, but I think we're getting the chance to back a potential Group horse running off a mark of 93. The horse in question is Barry Hills' 4 year old, Sharaayeen, who improved to no end when switched to more reserved tactics on his final 2 starts of last year. Before that, he had run well in the main, but just didn't seem to see out his races when racing up towards the head of affairs and he was beginning to get a little disappointing, despite shaping as if he'd make a nice horse when winning as a 2 year old. There should definitely be more to come from him this year and the fact that he holds some fine entries in staying events suggests that connections clearly think he'll continue to improve. One of the entries is for the Chester Cup (2m 2f) on Wednesday, which I'd imagine he won't run in, but he also holds an entry in the Group 2 Emirates Airline Yorkshire Cup over 1m 6f at York in a fortnights time. The next and final entry is for the Ascot Gold Cup over 2m 4f in the middle of June. That's a Group 1 race, which will probably prove way above his level, but I think he'll develop into a decent horse in the lower quality Group races. Given that he's so well built and is such a strong galloper, the step up in trip does look a very good idea, but for now, 1m 4f over a track like this should prove ideal, and he also has some very decent form on the Newmarket Rowley course from last year.

I'm only going to concentrate on the final 2 runs of Sharaayeen's 3 year old campaign, because they're clear indications that he'd be capable of being rated in the 100's, suggesting he has at least half a stone in hand, although fitness has to be taken in trust. The first of those was over the 1m 2f trip at the galloping Newbury track, where Barry Hills' charge was sent off a well-backed 9/4 favourite of 9 runners. Richard Hills, who's on board today, steadied him up in the rear of the field for the first mile of the contest, before producing him 2f from home when the gaps finally appeared. The then 3 year old made rapid headway to scoot clear with the only horse who could come anywhere close to him, Scottish Boogie, a 19 length winner of an easy race next time out. However, my selection disposed of his challenge within a couple of strides and galloped relentlessly to the line, scoring by a 5 length margin off a mark of 78, proving that the waiting tactics were exactly what was needed. The ground was good that day, but not overly quick, and with todays ground likely to be good-to-firm, we could see an even better performance, as he looks like a true fast ground horse to me. The handicapper obviously had his say after that win and raised Sharaayeen up by 13lbs, which was probably fair given how visually impressive the horse was over a trip that's likely to prove shy of his optimum, although they did go a very good gallop in that race, which is exactly what's required and he should get that today too. He showed he could both travel, gallop easily at speed and quicken with ease, which should stand him in good stead in a contest like this, even from a markedly increased rating.

Next, and last time out, Sharaayeen was upped in class and trip to tackle todays course and distance. He also tackled truly soft ground for the first time in his career, although he had decent form (3¾l 2nd) behind Taqleed on good-to-soft, but had bombed out on his previous 2 attempts with cut in the ground. However, despite the 13lb rise, Sharaayeen ran a very creditable race to finish a 2¼ length 2nd behind the Richard Hannon trained Lethal Glaze, who clearly relished the ground. My selection, under the quite average handling of Tadhg O'Shea, had plenty of work to do 3 furlongs from home. O'Shea switched him right and he proceeded to make relentless progress to take 2nd just a furlong from home, but he had done his bit and ran out of steam in the final half furlong. A combination of the ground and a distinctly average ride from the jockey made it tough for him, but to finish a creditable 2nd at the back end of a 7 race season wasn't too bad, and he again shaped as if there was more to come off this sort of mark, having run similarly to his 5l destruction on his penultimate start. The return of Richard Hills can only be viewed as a plus, given that he, in my opinion, is a better jockey than O'Shea, even though I'm not too keen on him myself. Also, the return to fast ground should also be a plus, and given that he faces 14 rivals here today, there'll be plenty of opportunity to get covered up towards the rear of the field before setting off on a late run up the Newmarket hill, which he should love on this ground.

Overall, Sharaayeen is still quite lightly raced, having only run on 10 occasions previously. He has also only just turned 4 and should progress even further now that he has both experience and another winter to fill out his already sizable and strong frame. How he'll be ready first time up is anyones guess, and the only thing that's stopping my from backing him with maximum stakes, as I most certainly see him contesting some middle-distance group races before the end of this flat season. The Hills yard seem quite forward this year and have had enough winners so far to suggest that they'll have this fellow spot on to land this £25,000 prize, which is a lot more than he has earned to date. Barry and Richard have a 17% strike rate at this course, having had 17 winners from 100 runners, with a further 29 either coming second or third, with a LSP of +£40. They're clearly a formidable partnership at this course, and this is the only runner they'll be teaming up for here, with Michael riding the other 4 runners from the yard. He doesn't do as well around here as his brother though. I'm hoping hold up tactics will be used and given that the pace is virtually assured to be solid at least, all should fall into place for something coming home strongly from the rear. I think Sharaayeen will travel well throughout, cruise into contention coming into the dip, before powering up the hill to make it 3 wins from 11 attempts. I fancy one of the other 4 year olds, Life And Soul, could make a good race of it and there are many other dangers, but I'm siding with the horse I believe could be a step or two ahead of the opposition and the handicapper. There's plenty more to come from him, and that's pretty much a certainty, whether it'll be today will be seen later, but he should go well and rates as a value shout at 5/1. Medium stakes for me and I think he'll run a cracker bar disaster.

x PyRo · 01-05-2011 1:43am

2:35 Newmarket - Sea Of Heartbreak - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

I'm not overly convinced that this horse is up to winning at this level, but she has everything in her favour today with regards to trip, ground and track, so I'll take my chances at the odds. Sea Of Heartbreak, trained by the wonderful Roger Charlton, proved most progressive last year, winning her opening 3 races off marks of 70, 78 and 85, shaping as if she had a bit in hand on every occasion. All of those wins came over 1m 2f and she hadn't run a bad race until being stepped up to 1m 4f around Goodwood, where she ran a shocker, probably down to the style of the track. However, she ran a creditable 2nd of 6 next time out, when finishing 6 lengths behind the progressive and classy Ferdoos, who will now be trained by Roger Varian. My selection traveled strongly throughout but couldn't pick up on the back of a slow early pace and probably failed to see out the trip too, although the Ffos Las track was much more suitable, yet not ideal.

Sea Of Heatbreak then ran at this track on her final start of the season, this time in Listed company over 1m 2f, which is around her optimum trip. She ran a cracking 4th of 14 and even led a furlong from home, before staying on but finding herself unable to match the leading trio up the hill. However, before the race, she had 16lbs to find with the 3rd and 19lbs with the 2nd, with the winner now being rated 108 with the potential to contest at the top level this year. It was a cracking run from Roger Charlton's charge and she was also racing out in the middle of the track, which probably wasn't ideal given how things panned out. She has now went up 11lbs in the ratings and looks sure to progress even further as a 4 year old given her overall size. I've no idea how she has wintered but she won first time up last year, although in a much weaker contest, but she's worth chancing again here now that she comes back to a very suitable track and on ideally fast ground. I just hope they go a good gallop up front and set things up for her, as that's a requirement for her given all of the races I've seen. She's most certainly up to winning at Listed level, but hopefully she's up to gaining a Group 3 scalp too. Eleanora Duse has a great chance, but she shoulders a 5lb penalty, which may prove tough to live with in a competitive contest. However, her stable has won this on the last 4 occasions and she certainly fits the bill as another likely type, but I'd rather not take 4/1 about her and look for some each-way value elsewhere. There's a few other types that could go well, but the strong travelling Sea Of Heatbreak is taken to continue her progression into her 4 year old campaign and get things started with a bang. The only thing that would stop her getting involved is race fitness, but Charlton is more than capable of getting them ready and hopefully he will have.

x PyRo · 01-05-2011 2:45am

3:15 Newmarket - Elshabakiya - 0.5pts e/w @ 100/1 (Ladbrokes)

I'm probably barking up the wrong tree here but I'm quite surprised by the price available on Clive Brittain's 3 year old filly, who obviously possesses a lot of ability and looks the type to improve with racing. How she's 100/1 I'll never know, until after the race maybe! Anyways, I'll happily take a chance on Elshabakiya, who looked like a decent animal in the making last year when having 2 runs over 5f, a trip that she shaped as if would prove to be well below her optimum, but she performed creditably, finishing 2nd on both occasions, first to the classy Maqaasid (28/1 today) and then Crying Lightening, who's a decent filly in her own right. After those runs, she was said to be "the best filly in Clive's yard", according to owner Saeed Manana's racing manager. Given that they've got a fair few very useful filly's around, that's quite a statement. She still holds entries in the Investec Oaks (won't stay) and Coronation Stakes, so I'm quite sure that better things are expected of her this year, as her form as a 2 year old was decent, yet unspectacular.

However, Elshabakiya stepped up on all known form when running 2,000 Guineas 2nd, Dubawi Gold, to a head on her seasonal reappearance, despite taking a very keen hold early on. She was quite unlucky to be caught, but the slow early pace helped Richard Hannon's 3 year old to utilize his exceptional turn of foot, and he just managed to catch todays selection. That form isn't enough here, but it's not half bad and I think that we haven't seen the best of this lively filly just yet. She has had another run since, when lining up in the Nell Gwyn Stakes over 7f at this track. However, she seemed to get unbalanced coming into and going out of the dip, which threw away any chance she had of landing the Group 3 contest. I think the experience should stand her well though and if she handles conditions better today, then she could be finishing off her race quite well, as she shapes to me as if a truly run mile would be perfect, even though some of the write ups I've read would disagree with me. However, she was still running on when just 4¾l behind Barefoot Lady last time out, and I think that form could be overturned here, with that runner rated as a 22/1 shot and Brittain's as a 100/1 shot, which is wrong in my opinion. There was valid excuses for Elshabakiya and she definitely looks like one to improve with experience, so I'll happily take a minimal each-way punt on her. I can't split the market leaders, so I'm not going to mention the dangers, because there are many. Although I'd love to see Sir Mark land a classic with Hooray. Hopefully Clive Brittain and Phillip Robinson's charge will at least fill one of the places, as she has everything to suit and looks severely overpriced, although still a big outsider.

x PyRo · 01-05-2011 11:44pm

Seconditis once again, and it shows no sign of disappearing. First up, my strongest bet of the day, Sharaayeen went down by the shortest of short-heads, just surrendering his narrow lead in the final strides of the race, having traded at 1.07 in running. I can't really complain though, as he ran an absolute cracker and galloped all the way to the line, but the winner showed a great attitude to land the spoils despite taking a pull early on.

Everything went as expected though, as Sharaayeen cruised into contention coming into the dip, before powering on up the hill. Pity he just couldn't shake off the winning horse but he shaped exceptionally well on his seasonal bow, which he's entitled to come on for. He'll land some nice races this year and could even go on to contest stakes races at some stage, all going well.

Next up was Sea Of Heatbreak, who went off at a massive 16/1 in the Group 3 Dahlia Stakes. It doesn't take much guessing to figure out where she came, but she hadn't a chance with the winner anyways, who looks sure to contest better races throughout the year. Sea Of Heatbreak traveled well throughout but was denied a clear run on a couple of occasions, which probably cost her at least couple of lengths with the winner.

However, she still ran a cracking race to finish 2nd of the 11 runners and showed that she's capable of landing a low enough quality Group race at least. She finished 4½l behind the winner, but well clear of the remainder and looks sure to go one better at some stage soon. The ground was ideal but she shaped as if a step up in trip may be no harm, especially if it was around here again. She's still unexposed having only had 9 runs, so Roger Charlton should have some fun with her this season. She's not half-bad for a filly rated 70 this time last year. Small profit from that bet.

Next up was the 1,000 Guineas, where I had backed Clive Brittain's Elshabakiya. I would of been happy if she came second but she could only manage 10th in the end, which wasn't a bad effort at all. She was punted before the off, eventually going off as a 50/1 shot, probably based on the Channel 4 pundits saying how well she looked. She's a big strong filly with plenty of speed, but as things panned out, todays race was definitely well above her head.

Given the worry about whether she'd see out the trip, I was expecting that she'd be held up like her previous race here, but Robinson set out to press the pace-making Hooray throughout and even managed to get her head in-front about 3f from home. However, she was swamped then after and dropped back to 10th place. It was a quite pleasing run though and there's most certainly some weaker races in her this year, probably on slower ground, as she was reported to have had issues with quick ground before. I still think she'd of done better if she was covered up in mid-division. A step back in trip will probably be in order now and hopefully connections will aim her at a decent race again, although she holds an entry in the Investec Oaks, which is about twice as far as she wants to go. She's worth keeping an eye on though, as she's talented and open to a lot of improvement.

-1pt on the day, which isn't to bad, but I was a few centimeters away from having a fourteen point profit. Quite gutting and the story of the past week, in which I've had no fewer than 6 seconds and 3 thirds. Hopefully there'll be a winner tomorrow.

UrbanSea · 02-05-2011 1:21am

Keep them coming James a pleasure to read.

x PyRo · 02-05-2011 3:47am

2:55 Windsor - Desert Icon - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Quite an open looking contest over 6 furlongs at Windsor, but I think things could fall the way of David Simcock's 5 year old, Desert Icon, who despite being on a long losing streak, looks well handicapped and ideally suited by how things could pan out here. It's no fewer than 24 races since this frustrating animal has managed to get his head in-front, having only gained victory on his second outing, which was in maiden company over this C&D. Regardless of that, he does hold some pretty decent form and should be highly suited to this flat, sharp track, especially as this is likely to be a truly run race, which he hasn't always got, but badly needs. He's said to be better suited to a slower surface, but on form and from what I've seen of him, he seems perfect on a quick surface and just needs to get cover and a good toe into the race, which he'll get here with the likes of trailblazing Taurus Twins lining up, along with Norville and Collect Art, who should all help ensure a very good gallop from the off.

Desert Icon comes here on the back of a 3 month layoff, having run on the all-weather tracks over the winter, in what turned out to be another fruitless campaign for the speedy son of Desert Style. However, the way many of those races panned out were completely against this gelding. In the meantime he has forged a decent partnership with young apprentice Alice Haynes, who's on board today taking off a valuable 7lbs, to leave him with a low riding weight of 8st 5lbs. I know very little about the jockey but she's ridden one winner from 18 rides and doesn't look too bad in the saddle for an up-and-coming apprentice. David Simcock seems to have his yard in decent order and had a nice winner yesterday. He has had 3 winners aged 4+ from 15 runners at this track, giving him a 20% strike rate when you take out his younger animals that have run here. That's not half bad and he's a very talented trainer who deserves to get this horse over the winning line again.

Desert Icon returns to turf running off a mark of 69, which is 17lbs lower than his peak rating in September of '09, a time when he was contesting some very decent handicaps. Whilst he's obviously went somewhat backwards, he's still capable of running to mark in the mid 70's at least, and that makes him of interest here, especially as he's effectively running off a mark of 62, albeit with an inexperienced jockey on board. However, he gets everything to suit and looks built for this track, even though he has disappointed here before. I'd like to see him tucked up towards the rear and produced earlier than he usually is, although he seems to be a horse who takes a little while to pick up. He's had plenty of inexperienced jockeys on in the past 10+ races and that's contributed as to why he hasn't managed to add to his sole career win, but if it all came together here, he'd have a serious chance of getting into the frame. The Henry Candy trained veteran Seamus Shindig also interested me at a price but I've missed 14/1 and I'd rather not take the 9's that are around now. He has claims though and could be worth of a saver. Get Carter is also given a chance by the handicapper but he's priced on stable power, not on his own abilities, although he should go well for Hannon and Dane O'Neill. My old favourite, Taurus Twins is a better 5f horse and may be at risk of getting caught late on, even though I'd be happy to see him notch up another win given the favour he done me when landing the spoils on his penultimate start. A few others have chances too in what is an open affair but I'll side with Desert Icon, who is exposed, but continues to look well handicapped and up to winning a race like this. He has ability and could go well here at a price. 14's looks generous and I'll play minimum each-way stakes. Hopefully he won't come second! Although I'd rather that than last.

x PyRo · 02-05-2011 4:20am

3:50 Beverley - Fibs And Flannel - 1.5pts e/w @ 9/1 (WillHill)

Has had his problems but talented, lightly raced and previously looked progressive, so may well prove to be significantly overpriced here in what looks to be a modest enough contest. Fibs And Flannel disappointed on his last 4 runs, but I believe he had valid excuses every time. First up was a mile contest around Warwick, where they crawled early doors and that wasn't ideal at all, as I reckon he'll need a truly run race to show his best, which he hasn't really gotten yet. His next 2 runs were down to the ground, which was heavy, then soft, on testing tracks. He ran exceptionally flat both times and they certainly weren't true reflections of his ability. Last time out, on his seasonal reappearance for this year, he raced over 7f at Doncaster in a big field, shaping as if he was in need of the run but he ran on quite well from off the pace, also shaping as if this step up to 1m ½f will be ideal.

Before that sequence, he had notched up a double of race wins. The first of which was a fast ground contest at this track, over 7 furlongs, where he won a shade cosily off a mark of 64 but had to make his own running as they went so slow early on. Ten days later, he beat a decent type in Dolphin Rock, in a similarly run race but the way in which he cruised into contention and cheekily went away from the second horse was impressive. He was barely touched nor pushed out and the way in which he won suggested that he'd go on to bigger things but he failed to do so. The handicapper has given him some leeway by bringing him back to just 2lbs above his last winning mark and that may be enough to get him back into contention in a race like this, especially where the pace is likely to be strong, courtesy of current favourite, Cono Zur. He has an exceptional cruising speed for a horse at this level, and I think things could pan out very much in his favour, especially as he's now returned to a track where he clearly goes well, having won and finished 2nd here. His yard are also in decent enough form of late and having had a recent run, I expect to see Fibs And Flannel show himself in a much better light. Fast ground is a positive, the track is a positive, the likely strong pace is a positive, the small field is a positive and the fact that he's 9/1 is another huge positive, as I was expecting around 5/1. I'll play small/medium each-way stakes here and hopefully he'll run well. I could go into much more detail about him but I'm knackered and I'll keep it reasonably short. David Allen also retakes the reins from Duran Fentiman, and he gets on well with this unexposed 4 year old, who should go on to be a nice type this year. Fingers crossed that he'll run well.

Juwwi · 02-05-2011 5:44pm

Did you see Thegreatjohnbrowne is going at Punchestown tomorrow.
He is in JP's colours now he must of bought him.
I have'nt a clue if he'll like quick ground tho.

x PyRo · 03-05-2011 4:09am

Not sure if he'll like it myself Rob. Tough race but he's talented enough to get involved if he likes the ground. No more NH for me anyways so I'll just watch!

Not close and no cigar. Desert Icon is an odd one altogether. Despite the good early pace, he was pulling away for the first 3 furlongs of his race, which obviously affected him in the finish, as he ran out of steam despite making a fair bit of headway on the outside of the field, only to fade into 9th place in the end. I wasn't overly impressed with the jockeys ride but them's the risks one takes when backing horses with inexperienced claimers on board. I won't be backing him again until a good jockey is back on board, which doesn't look like happening any time soon. The horse has talent though, just never gets to show it.

Connections of Fibs And Flannel seemed to be getting stuck in as his price went from 9/1 into as low as 7/2 throughout the day, but he drifted out to 6/1 on course before blowing the start and failing to recover from that. However, he made late progress to finish one out of the places in 4th and should come on again for having had that run. I'll be on again next time out, price and race dependent.

-5pts on the day. Poor effort, but what can you do.

7:00 Catterick - Night Trade - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill)

Competitive class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs at Catterick, in which they're likely to go at it from the off, ensuring a truly run race, which should play into the hands of Deborah Sanderson's 4 year old filly, Night Trade. Whilst on paper, her most recent run would be a big cause for concern, as she finished a well beaten 12th of 13 over this trip at Doncaster. However, that was in a lady amateur riders' race, where she was given an atrocious ride by her inexperienced rider, who can probably be excused for the poor ride. The odds compliers seem to have completely overlooked the reason she ran so poorly last time out, and I think that 14/1 is a brilliant price, especially as Night Trade now returns to the scene of her only 2 career victories, although they were achieved over 5 & 6f, but she's equally effective over this trip. The fact that the best jockey at this course, Silvestre De Sousa, takes over in the saddle is one massive plus, and he has went close on this animal on a few occasions. Overall, he boasts a fine 20% strike rate at this course and also shows an absolutely huge LSP of £137. He's clearly a force to be reckoned with around here and interestingly, despite having ridden this filly on 9 occasions, this will be the first time he takes the reins at this course, where her form reads ; 1-3-1-4.

Last time out, Night Trade hit 2.32 in running, having raced prominently throughout, holding every chance 2f from home, still appearing to go well. However, it looked as if her jockey was motionless and offered nothing in the finish to this horse, causing her to stroll home at her own pace and finish 14 lengths behind the pace. I don't want to continually scotch the jockey, but she wouldn't of been competitive in an egg and spoon race, nevermind a horse race. Her mount even managed to edge left from the middle of the track all the way over to the far side rail, which really showed that she wasn't in control at all. That was also the horses third run in the space of 2 weeks (off 17 days since) and previous to that, on her second start of the season, Night Trade ran a cracking 3rd in a competitive handicap on the all-weather at Wolverhampton, where she finished a gallant 3rd behind two decent animals (2nd won since, winner hasn't raced). That run wasn't far off her career best and although she's quite exposed for her age, there could still be more to come from this filly, especially over this trip. The track suits her perfectly and the fact that they should go at it upfront from the off means she'll get a race run exactly how she wants it. Deborah Sanderson is a very decent trainer but just hasn't enough good horses to go to war with, although she has a few decent ones. The yard are yet to have a winner this year, but they've only had 11 runners, with 1 second and 3 thirds. The most recent couple have performed well and hopefully they'll get the season off to a start soon. When visiting Catterick, they've had 3 winners from just 9 runners, and this is the only animal they venture down with today. The fast ground is perfect for Night Trade, the trip is perfect, the track is perfect and the positive booking of Silvestre De Sousa only goes to strengthen her case. There's a few decent types in opposition, but I think this horse should be no more than a 6 or 7/1 shot, so I'm playing medium each-way stakes. Hopefully she'll run as well as expected.

x PyRo · 04-05-2011 1:28am

Poor effort from Night Trade, who faded into the wilderness in the final couple of furlongs, eventually finishing last. Whether she saw too much daylight on the outside (raced wide and came very wide into the straight) or just wasn't good enough on the day is debatable but she certainly wasn't at the races again. I'll probably leave her alone now, until she's given some leeway by the handicapper at least. I obviously thought she'd do a lot better than that but perhaps today wasn't meant to be the day anyways. Oh the joys of racing.

-4pts on the day, and I'm starting to wish the constant places would return! I'm surely due a winner at some stage soon.

1:45 Chester - Choice Of Remark - 2pts @ 6/1 (WillHill)

I'm not usually a big fan of punting the 2 year olds early on in the season but this one caught my eye on a few occasions and could shape into a decent animal in time. Choice Of Remark, one of three David Evans trained runners here, shaped very well on all of his 3 visits to a racecourse so far, showing plenty of bright speed, more than enough to think that he'd be a very effective horse around a track like Chester. Around here over this 5 furlong trip, you must have a horse who's drawn low, a horse who races prominently and one who's got a nice short stride. My selection for this race fits the bill perfectly, as he's drawn in stall 1, right beside the favoured rail and he likes to front-run, which he should get to do given his very impressive early speed, which has seemed to increase with every race, although he didn't quite finish out his race as one would of hoped over this trip at Folkstone last time out, where he came 3rd in a race won by a potentially classy type in Gatepost.

Choice Of Remark will have to up his game significantly to get involved but this €13,000 son of Choisir definitely looks like the type to improve with racing, although there's a fair chance he'll make a much nicer 3 year old, but for now, I don't think he can be dismissed too easily in a race of this nature, especially with the yards eye-catching booking of Kieren Fallon. It wouldn't be often that Fallon gets booked for this year, who took the race in '09, but overall, they've a 24% strike rate on turf, with 9 wins and a further 10 places from just 38 rides, with a +£24 LSP, which ain't half bad. Along with the winner in '09, Evans had the 2nd in this race last year and the 3rd & 4th placed horses in '08, so it's obviously a race he likes to target. He's strong handed to land success again and I fancy him to do it with one of the three, hopefully Choice Of Remark. This horse ran on straight courses last twice and was always vulnerable having made the early running, but on a track like this, which has a sharp turn for home combined with a short run in, he could be in his element and prove hard to catch, assuming he gets the lead of course. There seems to be competition for the lead, and these races don't always pan out as expected, but the draw in stall 1 is a massive advantage and Fallon will hopefully get him out quick enough to bag the rail, which he should really.

Current favourite, Lily's Angel, looks priced on stable prowess, as her form isn't much better than my selections, even though she's won both her races to date. This is an entirely different proposition though and 15/8 is a laughable price, even though she's obviously talented and entitled to be there or thereabouts. Brocklesby winner He's So Cool looks up against it from stall 5 and faces likely competition for the lead. 9/2 is too short for me. David Evans' more fancied runner, Redair, may get taken off her feet easily enough here and I think she'll need further to be at her best. Regardless of that, she's entitled to be on the scene but 5/1 wouldn't float my boat at all. I'm going to stick to my guns and have a small enough bet on Choice Of Remark, who may also appreciate further in time, but looks to have bucket loads of early speed and enough to be right at home around this track. It's a fairly tentative bet as you never know what David Evans has planned, but this horse is talented, quick, and overpriced in my opinion. Hopefully he'll go well and see it out from the front, just like Star Rover did for the yard back in '09.

x PyRo · 04-05-2011 3:11am

The Chester Cup

2:55 Chester - Plymouth Rock - 2pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)

An exciting race in prospect over a trip just shy of 2m 3f, and I fancy Jeremy Noseda's only runner of the day to relish this test, although he'll need plenty of luck to get involved. I'm a big fan of Plymouth Rock, having backed him each-way at 66's in the Cesarewitch back in October, where he finished a very unlucky in-running 3rd place, having been repeatedly denied a run through in the massive 32 runner field. He was flying at the death (despite taking a very keen hold early) but the leading duo had flown and there was nothing that could change that. However, it was a clear indication of this one time St Leger entry's ability, who cost 280,000gns (re-sold 170,000gns) as a yearling, which is testament to his beautiful breeding. He's bred to relish a true stamina test and although he's probably a bit mentally, he's entitled to be bang there come the business end of proceedings, even though he's 5lbs higher than his 3rd place in the Cesarewitch (very capable claimer takes off 3lbs). The horse seems to produce his best when held-up, but it wouldn't be too bad to see him race a bit more prominently around here, as it'd take a hell of a horse to win this race from out the back given how I think things will go (should be run at a fair pace from the off). As long as Plymouth Rock gets a nice position and is covered up then he'll be staying on well at the end, bar disaster.

Plymouth Rock, who is now 5 years old, hasn't won since making his debut as a 3 year old. However, he's still progressed from an 82 rated animal to now run off of 99, which is testament to his abilities and consistency. In his 10 runs since that win, he's finished second on 4 occasions and third on 3. He's only really run very poorly on once occasion, although he had excuses. He also comes here having had a run, which is a plus. He contested a 1m 3f handicap on the all-weather at Kempton, and that trip is much too short for him, although he was traveling well a few furlongs from home but just couldn't pick up, which is understandable. Overall, despite being consistent, he's obviously been disappointing, having failed as favourite on no less than 6 occasions. The application of a visor has seemed to perk him up though and he's still unexposed in the main, and also very unexposed as a stayer, which I expect to see him excel at over the season. It just seems to take him too long to pick up when he's racing over middle distances and when he gets some luck, he'll be winning a race before too long, hopefully today. His yard are in cracking form this year, having had 15 winners from 53 runners, which gives them a well above average strike rate of 28%.

Their best horses haven't come out yet either and I'm a massive fan of Jeremy Noseda, who can certainly train to an exceptional standard. He's on track to have another good season and he should pick up many a nice prize throughout the year. The £62k for the winner here would be a nice consolation for a horse who has proved most expensive to follow and connections are due their day in the sun with him, so hopefully Plymouth Rock will run to the ability that I feel he has, because if he does, he'll go pretty close. 18/1 looks a cracking price and I'll play medium each-way stakes. Everything's in the horses favour here, although it's a tough contest with many a danger, but the price makes the risk worth it. John Fahey, who takes the reins, is an excellent young jockey and he's a very interesting booking for the yard. He takes off a handy 3lbs and is more than capable of switching this fellow off before producing him late on. Fingers crossed that all goes to plan, as he'll need a fair bit of luck, but he has buckets of ability and remains unexposed in this sphere. I also think he's a better animal on a quicker surface, even though he shapes as if being a softer ground horse. We'll find out come 3pm anyways. The horse owes me nothing, but he owes connections a hell of a lot I'd imagine!

x PyRo · 05-05-2011 1:33am

Choice Of Remark showed his bright speed once again to get out and attempt to make all, but it was all in vein as he was swallowed up inside the final furlong. He edged right under pressure and just couldn't maintain his effort, finishing 3rd in the end. He went off at 7/2 having been well supported before the off and connections will definitely land a race with this fellow before long, but today wasn't to be the day. Plenty of the runners kept close order on him from the off and I think he'll be much better when able to dominate from the front, which he couldn't really do today. Not a half-bad effort, but just not good enough. Keep an eye on him though.

In hindsight, I was quite stupid backing a hold-up horse in the Chester Cup, as Plymouth Rock never stood a chance, despite running a good race to stay on into 9th in the end. The race was dominated by the front two throughout and nobody else got into contention. My selection missed the kick slightly and had to settle for a position on the rail, which wasn't bad, but it was a position right out at the back, which you're not going to get away with here. He was never in contention but a return to staying distances over the likes of Newmarket or Haydock would be ideal, especially as he has some very decent form at both venues. This horse has loads of ability and he'll eventually land a nice race, and return all the money he owes me too! It was a good effort from the horse with all things considered, but not a good effort by me.

-6pts on the day. Hopefully the floodgates open and winners start to come think and fast. Wishful thinking I suppose.

1:45 Chester - Kingscroft - 1.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (VC)

The favourite is going to be all the rage here, as he's officially 8lbs well in at the weights and performed well last time out, but I'm going to take him on with a typical front-running Johnston horse, who is better than what he has shown in his last couple of starts, despite looking much more exposed than the majority of his rivals. Kingscroft, owned by Dr Marwan Koukash, comes here on the back of a most disappointing effort at Sandown, where he finished last of 9 runners, a race in which todays favourite finished 2nd, a full 27 lengths ahead of my selection, who clearly didn't run to his ability. There's no obvious excuses for him, but it wouldn't be the first time a Johnston horse hasn't run to their form and I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see him bounce back to form, despite this being a competitive handicap. Back in March, when Kingscroft won over 7f at Wolverhampton, Johnston said that "Dr Koukash always likes to have winners at Chester, so we've got our eye on a handicap there for the May meeting", which I find quite interesting. The horse has won since (only got a 2lb rise) but if he landed the spoils last time out (and the time before), he'd be facing another penalty in an attempt to land this £14,193 prize, which would make things awfully tough. Due to those flops, this potential turf improver runs off a mark of 83, which may prove to be a mark below what he could eventually progress to, despite having already improved 15lbs for winning 4 times on the all-weather this year alone, 3 of which were handicaps. I think there could be more to come from this 3 year old, who has only raced 5 times on the turf, all without success.

Kingscroft has done all of his winning over 6 and 7 furlongs, but he has shaped on a few occasions that he'll need a mile at least, and whilst he tackled a mile last time out, this may be the first time that he's let loose over the trip, although that's a theory rather than a fact (I like to try and read the trainers mind!). Joe Fanning takes the reins on this fellow for the first time since his debut, and assuming they continue with front-running tactics, I think he'll prove to be a big plus to the horse, as he's an excellent jockey from the front. His record at the track isn't amazing but it's decent. The Johnston yard were going through a bit of a rough patch not long ago, but they've had 4 winners and 2 places from their last 10 runners, so hopefully that's a sign of things to come, as I really like this yard but find it oh so tough to get them right. This is obviously a decent horse and whilst he looks exposed having had 12 runs, his ability is there to be seen and I don't think he's had optimum conditions yet, so I'm banking on this C&D to bring out even more from him, especially from a plum draw in stall 2, where he's likely to get the opportunity to get out in-front should they be the tactics pursued.

Of the remainder, Captain Bertie will be hard to beat given that he's ahead of his mark but even money is unattractive in a race like this and I'm more than happy to take him on. A repeat of his previous run should see him win, so he does warrant respect, but whether he'll run to the same level of form is yet to be seen and I don't think that's a 50/50 call by any means. Shafgaan was the other who interested me at a price, as he seems to have plenty of speed, decent form in the book and remains open to plenty of progression. His latest run wasn't a true running over a trip that's probably too short for him as a 3 year old and I expect to see him in a better light back at this course and over a longer trip. However, he shapes as if needing a bit of cut in the ground and Clive Brittain has been very slow into his stride this year, despite having the odd winner. I'm going to leave his horses alone for another couple of weeks, but he's a trainer that I'll be keeping a close eye on. He's a class act and isn't afraid to test his horses above where they're expected to be competitive. Credit must go to owner Saeed Manana too and he has some very nice types, many of which I'll be backing throughout the year, but for now, I'll pass on this horse. Weapon Of Choice was another I liked but Spencer said he didn't handle the quick ground last time out and assuming he isn't telling lies, I'd swerve him here too, even though he's a very good horse in the making. A few others have chances but I'll stick with Kingscroft, who comes here out of form but may have things much more to his liking here at a track I'm backing to suit him. He's speedy, should enjoy the ground and looks to have a very decent attitude. Whether I'm right about him possibly being better than 83 is yet to be seen, but in the long run, I think he could be at least a half-stone better than he's rated now. 20/1 is a bizarre price and only available with this firm. A few others go 10/1, and that's closer to my estimation of his price, possibly even a bit shorter. He's overlooked here and certainly worth a small enough each-way bet.

x PyRo · 05-05-2011 3:16am

4:05 Chester - Classic Colori - 2pts @ 9/1 (Bet365)

Originally this fellow was thought of as a Group performer, but things haven't gone to plan for horse and yard, but now that he's returning to racing fresh, well-handicapped and at a track that should play to his strengths, I'm expecting to see a good run from the one time all-weather Listed winner. Classic Colori, a €55,000 purchase as a yearling, has only run on 9 occasions, including 3 tilts at Group level, where he was well beaten on all bar one occasion, where he ran decently, although it was only on his second career run as a 2 year old having won very impressively first time out at Windsor in a hot maiden. His yard have had their problems though and it hasn't proved too much of a surprise to see plenty of their horses struggle in the last couple of years, but things look on the up for them this year and I think this fellow is well treated back in a handicap off a mark of 92. He won first time up as a 2 year old, won first time up as a 3 year old and I'm backing him to do the same here first time up as a 4 year old, at a meeting where his trainer is pretty keen on having winners, as he's based just 15 miles down the road. They had a 40/1 second and a 5/1 winner yesterday, with a couple of their other runners running very respectable races, so hopefully the trend continues here with a horse who's unexposed in the main and very unexposed at this 1m 2f trip, having won over 6 & 7f, but has plenty of stamina in his blood.

This is no easy race to come back to, as current favourite Beachfire does look to be a very talented horse. However, despite having a fine strike rate, he's not one to rely on as he's got a mind of his own and could do anything. I also get the impression that he's going to need a step up to a mile and a half at least to progress beyond his mark of 97. He can get quite far back before staying on well, but with the short run in here at Chester, he might get caught out and find everything happening too quick. He probably warrants being a relatively short price, but 2/1 is a long way off my idea of a value price about this horse. Mark Johnston's Jutland isn't a bad horse either, but he's probably handicapped to his best given what he's shown to date, although being only 4, further progression is not out of the question. The track is likely to play to his strengths but I think he's a better horse when dominating and the inclusion of Alan Bailey's Kidlat makes things difficult. The latter is an all-weather horse and I'd be shocked if he won this. He'll be there to be shot at and looks way too high in the weights given his flat form and should be double his 10/1 price tag in my opinion. Ryan Moore being on board is the only reason he's that price and I'm leaving well alone. He could win, but it's very, very unlikely that he'll be up to it.

Changing The Guard, for Richard Fahey, looks like a decent consistent horse but he finds winning tough and looks priced on stable prowess. 5/1 wouldn't get my interested at all and I'd rather take him on. He has claims but not enough to make that price worthwhile. Thin Red Line is a slower ground horse and 5/1 looks too skinny. He's a decent type though and I wouldn't rule him out but the ground makes things difficult. The other two don't interest me at all. I'm sticking with Classic Colori, who goes well fresh, looks well handicapped, looks suited to conditions and comes from a yard who'll be dying to get him back to form. On his best form, he shouldn't be 9/1, and he should be that priced based on his potential. He's only 4 years old, lightly raced and seems to have plenty going for him. Smallish win bet for me as I don't like backing Dascombe's horses with too much faith, but this one has decent claims and his rivals are vulnerable, although he is too. Hopefully he'll go well.

mailburner · 06-05-2011 12:58am

robbie1977 wrote: »

Did you see Thegreatjohnbrowne is going at Punchestown tomorrow.
He is in JP's colours now he must of bought him.
I have'nt a clue if he'll like quick ground tho.

he's running now in the 4.55
money is coming bigtime though
was 5s and now down to 7/2

x PyRo · 06-05-2011 4:29am

Kingscroft outran his odds of 25/1 to finish 4th in the end, having looked pretty sure to place at one stage. However, he was quite one paced in the final furlong having raced in mid-div throughout, before going clear with the leading trio. There's a nice handicap in him at some stage, although I think he'll have to dominate proceedings to be seen at his best. He's game though and ran quite well. Pity he just couldn't grab 3rd but I was quite happy with how I called the race, particularly with the odds-on favourite getting turned over. The only kick in the balls was that the other Johnston horse won.

Classic Colori wasn't one bit suited to how the race panned out and got outpaced 2 furlongs from home. He ran on well in the closing stages though and it's just a pity it took so long for him to find his stride. He'll be much better over this sort of trip when there's plenty of pace on throughout and I definitely think this was a step in the right direction. A move to a track with a longer run in would help and he's handicapped to strike soon enough. I'll be considering him next time out, price and track dependent. I was right to oppose the favourite here, as he proved to have his own ideas, but he's up to winning again soon, even though a step up to a mile and a half would be need in my opinion. Mark Johnston also had the winner of the race (Jutland) and his stable looks back to top form. I'll be backing plenty from his yard over the next while, although the ones I pick will probably lose!

-5pts on the day. Disappointing and I'm beginning to hate punting at Chester! It's tough to predict how the races will unfold.

I'm quite short of time (which isn't usually the case!) so these write-ups are going to be shorter than usual.

1:45 Chester - Lowther - 2pts e/w @ 10/1 (PaddyPower)

Top weight and a poor draw is going to make things tough for Lowther but he has a wonderful turn of foot and comes here bang in form on the back of a gallant 3rd in the 25 runner Spring Cup, in which he looked a likely winner of at one stage. He's 1lb better off with the likely favourite for todays race, Pintura, who finished a half length ahead of my selection last time out, when finishing second. They seem priced up based on the who's drawn better, but Alan Bailey's Lowther has the turn of foot to negate that, and has won here in the past. He was previously quirky and unruly but seems to have matured a lot, which has culminated in many fine performances over the last few months, the majority being on the all-weather. However, he's equally as effective on turf when he gets his favoured fast ground, and that's exactly what he gets today. How badly the draw will affect him early on is yet to be seen, but if he breaks quick enough and gets a sit in midfield, I can't see him being too badly hindered when we come to the business end of proceedings. He also concedes at least half a stone all round, but he's by far and away the best horse in the race and faces a much easier task than he did last time out. They should go quick in front, which is perfect and I'd be surprised if he's not capable of running into a place at least. He could be a Group 3 performer in the making as he looks on an upward curve now that he's got his act together and only embarks on his 3rd year of racing, as he was unraced at 2. He's not exactly unexposed but is at least improving, enough to make me think that Alan Bailey can land this race for the second successive year. Medium each-way stakes and hopefully he'll run well.

4:40 Chester - Sioux Rising - 3pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

I backed this 5 year old mare last time out when she finished 2nd Musselbrugh when seemingly the second string of the Fahey runners. I thought it'd be interesting if Paul Hanagan was back on board her sometime soon and he duly hops on today. Sioux Rising is a very talented mare but finds winning tough, despite having a faultless attitude. A sharp track seems to be the key to her and she now visits one of the sharpest of them all, which I'm banking on to see her gain victory for only the 3rd time in her 19 race career. She has plenty of speed and more than enough for 6f, but seems to see out this 7f trip very well, so given that she's drawn perfectly in stall 3 and unpenalized for that run last time out, I'm expecting a very big run here. Richard Fahey can do no wrong of late, with his yard running at a 26% strike rate in the past fortnight. Hanagan is also riding exceptionally well and I think his finishing drive should prove vital to a horse who just finds it tough to go ahead in a finish, which is shown by her finishing 2nd on 5 occasions already, in races where she wasn't beaten much more than a head. They're likely to go at it from the off here which is ideal and Sioux Rising likes to race handy, which is a plus around Chester with the run in being extremely short. If she gets the break at the right times I'm in no doubt that she'll be on the premises come the final furlong and Hanagan will hopefully have her running on as well as anything. She's quick, game, talented, suited to conditions and looks nicely priced at 11/2. I'm having a medium bet on her and I expect a very good run.

5:10 Chester - Destinys Dream - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (PaddyPower)

There's a fair chance this race could be run at an average enough pace and turn tactical, but either way, Destinys Dream looks to have great claims here back at a track where she boasts form of ; 3-1-5-2. This 6 year old mare is plenty high enough in the weights but there's no doubting her ability and game attitude, which was on show during 2010, as she landed 3 handicaps off mark of 70, 76 and 81, proving most progressive despite looking thoroughly exposed. She's a strong traveling type with a very nice turn of foot, which was shown to great effect when winning over C&D back in August of '09, despite being well off the pace turning for home and being denied a clear run on a couple of occasions. When the splits came, she burst through to win under the same jockey as today. That was off a much lower mark, but she clearly enjoys it around here and just needs luck to go her way. Plenty of the opposition looks similarly vulnerable off their marks and I wouldn't be surprised to see Destinys Dream pull out more. She has exceptional talented when things go her way and her comeback run at Doncaster was promising, as the trip was shy of her best and she didn't get the best luck in running. Her yard seem in OK knick and has a nice 20/1 winner recently and her jockey is the very talented Kelly Harrison, who knows this horse inside out and has won on her 3 times. The ground, trip & track are all ideal and I think 10/1 is a very tempting price. Smallish each-way bet for me and I think she's capable of grabbing a place at least, with victory on the cards if the splits come at the right time. She's also well drawn in stall 3, so a nice early position is on the cards.

x PyRo · 07-05-2011 1:15am

Chester's over now and I've went 24 selections without a winner (awful), but yet I'm still slightly in profit. Today was no better than recent days and May has been terrible so far, but on I go and hopefully something will pop up soon. Just not getting the luck required, combined with some poor calls. The first selection for Friday, Lowther, who was well-backed to go off at 6/1, ran an absolute cracker in the 7½f handicap. He could only manage 3rd in the end but sprouted wings after they turned for home and was unlucky that he wasn't contesting his usual trip of a mile, which would of seen him win here. He's still on the upgrade, in good form, and surely due to land a big one at some stage. This trip is probably okay for him, but he'd need a much longer run in to be fully competitive. His turn of foot is sublime though and I think he'll eventually prove to be competitive at Listed/Group 3 level. Can't complain though and it's just a pity he was so poorly drawn.

Next up was the in-form Richard Fahey's runner, Sioux Rising, who was well-backed throughout the day to eventually go off as the 3/1 favourite. However, she was unlucky in running and got hampered on the rail by a horse on the retreat, which forced her to be snatched up, a move which cost her a few places. She has a cracking attitude and made progress again to get back into contention, before running out of steam in the final half furlong. She finished a close up 5th in the end, with the interference costing her big time, even though I'm not convinced that she'd of won with a clear run anyways, but she has a cracking attitude and anything could of happened. Slightly disappointing as I was quite sweet on her chances but she's forever the bridesmaid and never the bride. She's due to go up 6lbs again, which is very harsh and winning may be beyond her for the time being.

Destinys Dream ran no race at all, eventually finishing 10th of 11. I don't think the race was run to suit and she could still be competitive off this mark, even though todays run was less than inspiring. She looked to be carrying a lot of condition in the paddock and probably was in need of another run. It has taken her a while to come to hand in previous seasons and I'll be interested to see where she heads next. A sharp track (with a solid gallop throughout) plays to her strengths and although she's exposed, when she's ready to be at her best, she'll be hard to beat around the unconventional tracks. I'm not giving up hope just yet, even though I probably should!

-3pts on the day. Hardly a disaster, but with a helping hand from Lady Luck, I could of got a profit today. Ah well, onwards and upwards I hope. Some cracking racing today and plenty of bets to be had.

2:50 Ascot - Sooraah - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Quite looking forward to this 1 mile fillies handicap, as there's plenty of unexposed types who should make up into decent animals this year, although the inclusion of Sir Michael Stoute's Entitled means that there's a few runners here vastly overpriced, mainly because that one is priced based on stable prowess. The one I'm interested in is William Haggas' 4 year old filly Sooraah, who proved to be most progressive last year, winning handicaps off 70 & 75 (both easily), before going on to finish 2nd twice off marks of 81 & 83. She has looked awkward on a couple of occasions but travels strongly and should really appreciate the likely strong pace here, especially at a track that's likely to suit her perfectly.

Sooraah has had a run already this season and should be spot on now, but the basis of her price is due to running so badly last time out. She was a well-backed 4/1 co-favourite over 7f at Musselburgh, but disappointed in splendid fashion having had the race run all wrong. The talented filly pulled hard for the first 4 furlongs but was still travelling well enough with 2 to go, however, she faded fairly quickly to finish last, in a race where it paid to race handy. She did race handy (which was more forced than planned I'd imagine) and showed a bit of speed, but she's a miler at least and needs to be held up. The track was also against her and a stamina test rather than an out and out speed test is more to her liking, which she'll get today. She's still lightly raced having only run on 10 occasions and was unraced at 2, so there's undoubtedly more to come from this likable daughter of Dubawi.

Harry Bentley takes the ride and also takes a valuable 5lbs off her back, leaving a racing weight of 8st 11lbs. It's hard to find a better 5lb claimer in the country and he looks to be a very interesting booking for William Haggas, who has never acquired his services before. The yard haven't had many winners of late, but did start the year well and have had plenty of their charges running well lately, without getting the winners. However, they boast a 17 win, 97 runner record around Ascot in the past 5 years, giving them a LSP of +£72, which is extremely impressive. I'd say this filly will not go unbacked here, as 14/1 is about double the price that she should be. The fast ground, the track, the likely pace and the type of race are all in her favour, so I'm expecting a place at least.

Of the rest, Entitled, as previously mentioned, is far too short in the betting to warrant getting involved with. She's talented, but holds a modest level of form and looks like a horse who'd prefer a bit more cut in the ground. She's likely to be a big improver given her connections, but she's also entitled (see what I did there) to need the run. She is the type to get better with age, but I wouldn't take her at double her current price and I'm more than happy to readily oppose, even though she could win at a canter. Oceanway from the Johnston stable also interested me, as she's in receipt of a 13lb allowance for being a 3 year old and has a top 3lb claimer on board, but I think it'd be better to look elsewhere even though Johnston's yard are in fine knick once again. She's obviously talented, but it'll be so tough to win this against her elders, even with the big weight allowance. A stake saver on her wouldn't be a bad idea though, as she's 10/1 and could be a massive improver on her turf debut. Paul Cole's Listed juvenile winner, Lilly Again, was also interesting in the colours of Marwan Koukash, but she faded pretty tamely last time out when holding every chance at the 2 pole and I just think she may be there to get shot at towards the head of affairs. She does warrant respect though and is priced at 16/1, but she's also a 3 year old and may find the trip slightly too far. I'm going to stick with Sooraah, who is much better than she has shown last time out and could still be well-in on the ratings if she can continue the progression that seen her rise 17lbs last year. She's most likely going to get everything to suit here and with a bit of luck she'll be placing. Medium each-way stakes for me and I don't think this price will be around by the afternoon.

x PyRo · 07-05-2011 2:35am

The Victoria Cup

3:25 Ascot - Oasis Dancer - 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (Bet365)

A massive field here for the Victoria Cup with 29 runners listed to go to post. In the past number of years this race has been won by potential improver's without too much miles on the clock, and that would be a fair description of Oasis Dancer, who's trained by the wonderful Ralph Beckett, who seems to have his yard in fine order this year. This horse proved most disappointing in the last half of 2010, but he holds some smart form and more than enough to think he could get involved here at fancy odds. There's no doubting that it'll be a tough race to win but I expect a truly run 7 furlongs in a big field to bring the best out of this grey gelding, who was originally thought of as a potential Group performer. He comes here relatively fresh, having had his last run just over 2 months ago, when he was campaigned out in Meydan. He ran a couple of decent races but came 7th on each of his 3 runs. However, they were over 1m, 1m and 6f, and I'm of the opinion that this trip, right in the middle, is his optimum, especially on a track like this with his favoured fast ground.

Galloping tracks seem to play into the hands of Oasis Dancer, who was sent off as the 5/1 favourite in the 19 runner Totesport Mile at Goodwoord, where he disappointed once again. However, that track just didn't play to his strengths and he faded pretty tamely. That was off a mark of 105, 4lbs higher than what he faces today and it really shows what talented he has to be sent off as a 5/1 shot in a race like that as a lightly-raced 3 year old up against his elders. I think he could bounce back to top form at any stage this season (preferably today) and I'll make sure I back him every time, price dependent. He also finished 2nd to Workforce in a maiden as a 2 year old, which isn't relative form but interesting none the less, even though he was 6 lengths off the speed. Oasis Dancer went on to defy odds of 66/1 to win a 22 runner one of those Tattersalls Millions races on his 3rd career start. The form of that race wouldn't be considered the strongest, but it just shows that he can handle the hustle and bustle of a big field, which I'm banking on to ensure he'll be seen in a better light today.

His trainer, Ralph Beckett, has started off 2011 in good style, with 8 winner,8 seconds and 5 thirds from just the 45 runners, giving him an impressive 18% strike rate. His recent record at this track in uninspiring, with 1 winner from 46 runners in the past 5 years, but that winner was on his penultimate visit here. I think that Oasis Dancer is built for this track and assuming his side of the draw go quick enough throughout, he'll be finishing to good effect if readied to land this £53,000 pot, which he should be. Jim Crowley takes the ride and knows this horse well, having ridden him no fewer than 8 times, winning twice. Crowley is an excellent horseman and seems to be riding quite well this year. His record around here isn't great either but it's quite a bit better than Beckett's. This combination have provided many a winner in the past 5 years and clearly form a good partnership, so hopefully they can do the business here with a horse who has undoubted talent. It's a pity he just doesn't show that talent too often, as he needs everything to fall into place, but if it does, 33/1 could look very silly. He wants fast ground, a galloping track, cover in his races and a truly run 7 furlongs. All of which he should get here. There's far too many dangers to being listing them out in detail, but Lutine Bell, Noble Citizen, Mon Cadeaux and Zero Money (I can relate to that!) all came in for consideration and may be worth tiny each-way bets at fancy prices too. However, I'm sticking with Oasis Dancer to gain the upper hand here. He has everything you want in a potential winner of a race like this and I feel 33/1 is far too big. Smallish each-way stakes for me and I think he'll give me a good run for my money if readied. 5 places are being paid too, which is a plus obviously.

x PyRo · 07-05-2011 3:26am

5:10 Ascot - Striking Spirit - 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Won this race in '09 and boasts some fine course form. He has disappointed last twice but the return to this track could spark him back into life and he's also entitled to come on for having those runs. Striking Spirit is trained by the sprint king Dandy Nicholls, who has his string in good knick this year, and I fancy them to land yet another nice sprint handicap. The first of his 2 seasonal runs for 2011 was over 5f at Newbury, which is a trip shy of his best anyways, but he lost his action a fair way from home and never landed a blow. He was poorly drawn and wouldn't of got involved in the finish even if he kept going, but he was well-backed to make a successful reappearance, suggesting he may be showing a fair bit more at home. Striking Spirit then lined up over 5f at Musselburgh, a C&D where he had run well before. However, he was friendless in the market and ran accordingly. The softish ground over that trip put paid to his chances and he disappointed yet again.

Due to those two poor runs, Striking Spirit now drops back to the same mark that saw him finish a 2l 2nd in the Wokingham Stakes, over C&D, to handicap blot Laddies Poker Two. That was a cracking run and he ran into a Group horse running off a mark of 95, which certainly made things tough, but to finish where he did was impressive and I think he'll be capable of gaining compensation on his return to Ascot. The return to genuinely fast ground is also a plus, as all of his 3 career victories were gained on a similar surface. He'll more than likely set out to race very handy, and I think the recent runs should bring him on a good bit, even though his record fresh is usually good. Nicholls is more than capable of getting them ready for a big race, and if he's heading out with the intentions of landing this £8,500 prize, I think he has a horse perfectly capable of doing so.

The jockey booking of Andrew Mullen is an interesting one, but he's been picking up some rides for this yard of late and has ridden this fellow before, when they nearly managed to win over 5f at Musselburgh. He's a capable jockey and has won in a big field around here before, although he hasn't had many rides here. Mullen and Nicholls have a strike rate of 11%, but get plenty of nice priced winners as shown by their +£97 LSP from 130 runners. They also teamed up for a 22/1 winner at Newcastle a couple of days ago. Mullen comes down for just 2 rides today, and the other one would be extremely hard to fancy. Striking Spirit should be spot on here and ready to go, and assuming he is, the price-tag of 12/1 may look a little bit generous after the race. The track, going and big field are all taken to see him bounce back to form and I'll have another smallish each-way bet on him in the hope that he'll run well. 4 places are being paid, and once again, there's a lot of dangers lining up. I still think this fellow is capable off this mark and should put up a good fight to the opposing 19 runners.

thesandeman · 07-05-2011 11:03am

Hugh trying to steal your thunder again :-(

mookie2007 · 07-05-2011 3:00pm

God that was close. Great race. Unlucky you didn't get the win there

UrbanSea · 07-05-2011 3:05pm

Unlucky Py. That was one of the best finishes I've seen in a long time.

x PyRo · 09-05-2011 3:51am

-1pt on Saturday after Sooraah landed each-way money at 14/1. One of the other selections reached the frame but lost out on a place inside the final 50 yards and the other one was disappointing. Stats et all will be updated in a few days, preferably after a winner, or two.

I had my opinions on the last 3 selections written out, including a long write-up for todays bet, but I clicked the wrong thing and the browser shut down! Absolute disaster...

3:50 Redcar - Summer Dancer - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365)

Short write-up for this one. Class 4 handicap over 7 furlongs at Redcar, in which there's 11 animals listed to go to post. I'm finding myself readily discounting many of the field based on ground, track and because of how I expect this race to pan out. The one I'm backing is Paul Midgley's 7 year old Summer Dancer, who remains above his last winning mark (and career best), but can most certainly get involved at a tasty price given his showing over this trip at Doncaster on his seasonal reappearance. That was a lady riders contest but he finished a gallant 3rd of 13 (1¼l behind), staying on strongly despite not getting everything to suit. He flopped next (and last) time out, but he pulled very hard early, which is typical of his headstrong nature. However, Phillip Makin hops back on board and boasts a fine 3 win/10 race record on board this heavily campaigned animal. He knows how to get this horse settled, and should prove to be a massive asset to his chances.

They're likely to go a fairly solid gallop from the off, courtesy of the few potential pacesetters in the race, with a number of pressers also lining up. All of this should play into the hands of Summer Dancer, who thrives off a solid pace and settles much better in this scenario. He has won on sharp and testing tracks before, but he looks to be an out-and-out galloper with a nice turn of foot, so the flat Redcar track is likely to be ideal, on what is his second only run here. He looked sure to be involved in the finish on his other outing to this track, but he pulled hard and couldn't sustain his effort to the line, despite traveling well and shaping as if he was going to pick off his rivals. The pace should be stronger today, and with Makin back in the driving seat, I think he'll have a much better chance of sitting quiet towards the rear of the field, before attempting to use his very decent turn of foot to put things to bed. He's bound to be in much better knick for having had those recent runs and he comes here representing a yard in flying form, as they've had 4 winners and 2 places from their last 12 runners. That's impressive form by any mans standard and Midgley clearly has his animal in good knick. His course record is poor though, and that's a slight worry, but Makin rides well around here and the track looks built for this horse. As long as the rain doesn't affect the ground too badly, I expect Summer Dancer to outrun his 12/1 odds quite easily. Medium each-way bet for me and hopefully it'll break my poor run (which includes some awful luck) of results. This is my only bet of the day and personally, I'd of priced him up as a 6/1 chance at most. He warrants a lot more respect than he's getting and this price could well shorten before the off.

x PyRo · 11-05-2011 2:18am

Another poor effort, as Summer Dancer proved most disappointing on Monday. He broke slowly and took much too long to pick up, eventually finishing in a dead-heat for 5th place, 4 lengths behind the winner. It was a fairly encouraging run given that things didn't pan out and it was a race where racing close to the pace eventually paid dividends. However, he may need some help from the handicapper to get closer in the future and I'll avoid until he's looking well handicapped and/or runs at Beverley, a track where he shapes as if being capable of defying his current mark.

-4pts on the day. Surely a winner is coming soon! :-(

1:30 York - Sand Skier - 1.5pts e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)

A wide-open Class 2 Handicap to kick off an exciting days racing and once again, Mark Johnston's consistent yet frustrating 4 year old, Sand Skier, catches the eye. I backed him last time out when he came 7th of 19 in a similarly competitive contest over 1m 1f at Newmarket. He was easy enough in the market but ran a decent race on ground that was possibly a bit too lively for him, even though he's adaptable with regards to going conditions. However, the slower ground today, combined with the extra furlong, should help to see him in a much better light. Whilst it's hard to get to grips with the stables plans for their horses, they will surely be aiming to get this fellow a win at some stage soon, for confidence if nothing else. He's run 16 times in all, but has failed to win since his 3rd start as a 2 year old, despite making the frame on 9 of his last 13 outings. He's not overly exposed either and now drops to a career low handicap mark of 86, which gives him a great chance of getting involved based on numerous showings throughout his 3 year old campaign.

This will be Sand Skier's 4th outing of the season and he should be fully wound up by this stage. He ran a good 2nd on his seasonal debut on the all-weather in France, where he was a staying on 1½ lengths behind the winner. The form of that race wouldn't see him get involved here, but I'd imagine it was only a pipe-opener for this horse and he was expected to be better for it. He then lined up at Epsom over this trip, but didn't seem at home on the track and dropped away very tamely a long way from home. However, he was well-backed throughout the day up until they came under starters orders, and I'd assume that he was showing enough at home to warrant such support. Next time up, as previously mentioned, Sand Skier returned to Newmarket, where he has went particularly well 3 times, on ground ranging from Good-to-Firm to truly Soft ground. He held every chance a couple of furlongs from home but weakened under a fairly tender ride from his jockey, who didn't go hard on him once the race came to the concluding stages. It was a much more encouraging run though and an improved effort should follow.

Sand Skier now makes his way to York for the first time, and I'm banking on it's galloping style to be absolutely ideal for this horse, who just gallops and gallops without doing anything too quickly. He's as game as you like though and should get a fair pace to run at, which is what he wants. He likes to race handy which is a plus in a race like this and he's drawn well enough to suggest that Kieren Fallon will be able to get him into a nice position in behind the leaders. Fallon has a cracking record around York, with 65 wins, 50 seconds and 45 thirds in 400 rides, giving him a 16% strike rate and a very small LSP. He hasn't ridden many around here for Johnston but boasts a 21% strike rate on the flat for this yard and had 8 wins from 29 rides (28% SR) on Sheikh Hamdan owned runners in 2010. This is his only ride out of the 5 runners for Johnston tomorrow and I think he can add to his all round impressive stats for owner and trainer. Johnston's yard have picked up the bit in the past fortnight, having had 12 winners from 65 runners, giving them an 18% strike rate. They started the year off slowly but seem to be coming to hand now and with a few recent races under his belt, Sand Skier could benefit from the stables recent hot streak. The opposition are strong and there's 19 in total, with Taqleed being the likely favourite. He's talented and likely to make into a Group horse, but he's too short to get involved with (11/2), even though I expect his price to collapse even more. Right Step was another who interested me at 33/1, but he's impossible to predict and despite having form on this ground, may need a quicker surface to defy his current rating. Pekan Star could be anything but 7/1 is too skinny for a horse with only 2 starts to his name in as many years. There are many more but I'll side with the Johnston/Fallon combination to do the business with Sand Skier, who certainly deserves to get his head in-front and receives another 2lbs grace from the handicapper. If he put his best foot forward, he could definitely win this, but given his overall profile and his yards hit-and-miss style, I'll just play smallish each-way stakes. He should go well though and there's nothing to say he won't.

Lavattack · 11-05-2011 3:37am

I have been lurking long enough. I like the look of that horse in York at 13:30 tomorrow. Will have a wee nibble at him

Good luck and great log

x PyRo · 11-05-2011 3:58am

Cheers Lav. Hopefully he'll go well.

3:00 York - Regal Parade - 4pts @ 11/2 (Bet365)

This race is most certainly the highlight of todays racing with numerous top-notch types lining out to contest this Group 2 6 furlongs sprint and the one I'm interested in is the Dandy Nicholls trained 7 year old Regal Parade, who disappointed as favourite over in Ireland last time out but seemed to have valid excuses. He should be much more forward for having had that run and gets ideal conditions here today, which give me the impression that he should be the clear favourite (although he is the current fav) here today and a lot shorter than his current price of 11/2. He's a 2-time Group 1 winning gelding who, when getting ideal conditions, can put it up to the best of them. Fast ground is completely against him in races of this nature but he has won a Conditions race on very quick ground at this course, in what was his only visit here in his 36 race career. He's also officially the highest rated runner in this race and the best in at the weights as he doesn't have to carry a penalty for his last G1 success, whereas Markab (rated 1lb lower on OR's) does carry a 5lb penalty for his Group 1 success last time out in September of 2010. He'd prefer quicker ground and despite having loads of pace, could be vulnerable here.

Regal Parade has proved most progressive, winning a handicap off 79 in '07 when trained by Mark Johnston, before winning the Buckingham Palace Stakes (off 92) in '08 with Nicholls and the Ayr Gold Cup (off 99) later on in the same season. He went on to land a Listed race in '09 before tackling the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup a few starts later. 2010 was equally as fruitful as he put up a cracking performance to land the Group 3 Shadewell Stakes with ease, before gaining another Group 1 win in the Prix Maurice De Gheest out in France next time out. He didn't get ideal conditions next time out and finished a long way off Markab, but put it up to Goldikova in the Prix De La Foret after that. He paid for hitting the front too early but still ran to a level near his best despite getting beat into 4th place, with Dick Turpin and Paco Boy also passing him inside the final furlong. His form shows that he can mix it with the best and I expect everything could fall right today, assuming the ground doesn't quicken up. He disappointed last time out in the Gladness Stakes at The Curragh but the ground was heavy (track may not have been ideal either) and he couldn't sustain his effort, shaping as if he was in need of the outing. He also carried a 6lb penalty for his previous G1 success and all of this culminated in a very disappointing performance from a horse who was well-backed to make his seasonal reappearance a winning one. However, he should be spot on now and can make up for that poor effort last time out by making a winning return to British soil.

They're likely to go at it from the front with the trailblazing Rose Blossom, Hamish McGonagall, Dalghar and Markab all lining up in opposition. There's also plenty of pressers in the field too and I think everything will be set up for one of the hold-up animals to come with a late run to gain the £56,770 prize on offer. Regal Parade will relish a race run at a rapid gallop and that's exactly what he should get here. A lot will depend on how Adrian Nicholls steers this talented animal, as he wouldn't be what I'd consider a top jockey, but he gets on excellently with the horse and has gained victory on him no fewer than 5 times. He's getting some nice winners this year too and should be full of confidence, especially being on a horse he knows so well. The yard are also in good knick this year, which helps! Of the rest, Delegator looks interesting on his first outing at a sprinting trips. There's a fair chance that he'll come on a lot for the run and despite having some pretty impressive form over further, I don't think 7/1 is generous enough to get involved with. He may also prefer a quicker surface. Dalghar has claims too and he's unexposed as a sprinter, but he's also entitled to need his first run for his new trainer and could be vulnerable given how I expect things to pan out. Genki might need faster ground to be at his best in this company. A couple of others have claims, but Regal Parade looks like the best bet at 11/2. I've missed the 7/1 which was around earlier, and that's annoying but I'll play medium/large stakes at the current prices. I'm surprised he's not around the 3/1 mark and he'll surely be well-supported throughout the day, as it's much too big at the moment. Hopefully he'll go well and land another nice pot.

x PyRo · 11-05-2011 5:18am

3:35 York - The Galloping Shoe - 1.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Another wide-open handicap here but The Galloping Shoe looks very interesting now that he's stepped up in trip, which is what he seems to be crying out for based on his couple of outings this season. He's a 6 year old but still quite lightly raced for his age having only run 19 times on the flat, all over distances ranging from 6f to 1m 2f, but now he steps up to a mile and a half, which is bound to suit given how well he often finishes his races despite being regularly outpaced. The fact that he's from an "unfashionable" yard ensures that he's usually a very nice price and I think that 25/1 is vastly underrating his actual chances here. Alistair Whillans is the man who trains this ex-Jeremy Noseda gelding. Despite being a fairly small stable, the man can certainly train horses, in both codes too. In '09, he had 7 winners from 33 runners (21% SR), in 2010 he had 9 winners from 59 runners (15% SR) and so far this year, he's had 1 flat winner from 10 runners, priced at 18/1. He's clearly got an impressive record and managed to get The Galloping Shoe to progress a lot since he joined from a yard who certainly know how to get the best out of a horse. They've only came to York twice in the past 5 years, and both of their runners won, albeit at short prices. He's definitely the yards best flat horse and I think it's interesting that they're making the 300 mile round trip to come to this track, which is one that should be right up the horses street. Whether he's capable of getting involved is another thing, but he doesn't look impossibly handicapped and seems to love the hustle and bustle of a big field.

Stevie Drowne takes the ride on The Galloping Shoe for the second time ever, and he had a big effect on when they finished a gallant 40/1 3rd in a similar contest at Haydock (1m 2f) last June. That was off an 11lb lower mark but the race was run at a slow tempo and that's not what my selection needs, so the inclusion of likely favourite for todays race, Becausewecan, makes things all the more suitable for Alistair Whillans' charge, who should really enjoy having a good tempo to toe him into the race. When racing over 1m 2f, this fellow has never been beaten by further than 4½ lengths in his 6 attempts at the trip, which is testament to his game attitude as he didn't have things to his liking on a few times, and looked likely to tail off on a couple of occasions too. His recent efforts were quite laboured, especially last time out at Newcastle on fast ground, where he was a detached last before finishing strongly to get within 4 lengths of the winner. He stayed on exceptionally well and was eating up the ground inside the last couple of furlongs. It was a pity the race wasn't over further or he'd of been adding his third career win. I think the slower ground today should help, even though he has fast ground form and wins, but his best effort came on truly soft ground and todays Good (GS in places) should be right up his street. He's had 2 runs on the flat during April, so he should be spot on here and he also had 4 runs over hurdles in the winter, which is usually good for a horse. He wasn't great in that code but I think he could land a nice race this year and hopefully it's today. The dangers are all over the place, and I'm not going to bother listing them as I'd be here all night, but The Galloping Shoe definitely has the potential to get involved here at a tasty price. He's game, suited by the track, conditions and way the race should pan out, which leads me to believe that 10/1 would be a fairer reflection of his realistic chance. Hopefully he'll be staying on as well as ever, and if he doesn't hit his usual flat spot, he's bound to be involved at the finish. Smallish each-way bet for me but I think he can outrun his odds if he gets settled in rear and is produced at the right time by Steve Drowne, who's an excellent jockey.

Lavattack · 11-05-2011 12:34pm

missed 11/2. small bet at 5/1 tho

x PyRo · 12-05-2011 1:32am

Another tough day at the office for Mark Johnston with Sand Skier, who was the victim of some early scrimmaging which cost him a favourable position. He dropped away very tamely but I'm 100% convinced that he'll have his day soon and isn't in terminal decline, as a few people have said to me! Today obviously wasn't his day and I'd imagine the handicapper will drop him another couple of lbs, which will help to keep him in my mind for next time out. He's a talented horse and shouldn't be judged on what he's shown this season. Johnston will get him right soon and he'll dot up.

The other one I was interested in was Right Step, who was 33/1 last night. I thought he came through with a winning run just over a furlong from home but he couldn't hold out the very impressive winner. I clearly picked the wrong horse, but I'm slightly pleased that the Alan Jarvis trained 4 year old didn't win, or else my "I'm a jinx" theory would have even more substance to it.

Next up was Dandy Nicholls' 6/7f performer Regal Parade, who was a near max-confidence selection for me. However, it wasn't to be and I had feared the worst as he was slowly away, which doesn't help over this trip. Adrian Nicholls positioned him nicely though and came with a solid run up the stands rail despite being nudged along early on to keep position (wasn't helped by Dettori nudging into him on the winner).

Regal Parade looked likely to win with that quick burst of pace having finally found his stride, but Dettori had him covered on the impressive winner Delegator, who's surely going to excel at this trip throughout the year. The best horse on the day won, and I've no complaints, but it would of been nice to finally get a winner after what seems like an age.

The Galloping Shoe was my outsider of the day at 25/1, but he outran his odds to finish a slightly unlucky 3rd, just losing out on 2nd place on the bob. He was under the pump a long way from home, as is typical with him, but his truly game and impressive attitude stood him in good stead. However, luck wasn't really on his side as when he was finding his full stride, he was denied a clear run on a couple of occasions, even though he was looking a bit one paced at the time.

When the gaps came, he stayed on very well to finish less than 1½l behind the winner, who got first run on him. It could of been different with a clear run but in a race run to suit those racing handy, I thought he done exceptionally well, especially as the pace wasn't overly strong and it was his first attempt at the trip. He should get further than this trip and he'll be winning races off this mark of 82 around these middle distances, and he's still yet to be beaten by more than 4½ lengths in 7 attempts at 1m 2f+. He's not blessed with talent, but he's as game as they come. His trainer has also done an excellent job with him and their runners should be kept a close eye on, as plenty pop up at very nice prices.

+0.88pts on the day. Pretty insignificant profit on the face of it, but I was looking at a 10 point loss if TGS didn't get into the places. Happy enough with that, as it could of been a lot worse. Hopefully there's a winner coming at some stage in the next few months...

1:30 York - Duchess Dora - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Cracking 5 furlong sprint here with plenty of interesting candidates, none more than John Quinn's filly, Duchess Dora, who looks exceptionally well-handicapped on her best form and can take advantage of some leniency from the handicapper, who now has her rated a full 8lbs lower than her handicap success first time out last season. She's was bred to be a good 2 year old, and that she was, landing a maiden and 2 nurseries off marks of 80 & 87. She disappointed at Listed level next twice, with valid excuses for the second run (non-stayer). Her handicap mark of 93 looked to make things tough for her on her opening run as a 3 year old, but this attractive looking filly defied odds of 14/1 to finish a short head in-front of Fratellino, who's a very talented colt, last seen finishing second in a big 24 runner handicap at Newmarket (off 90). My selection traveled so well over the minimum trip at Beverley (where she goes well) that day and cruised into contention just over a furlong from home, but she hit the front a bit too early and begun to idle, giving the second horse a chance to come back into contention. However, she held on in a very game fashion and let the then 5lb claimer, Ian Brennan, off the hook for failing to hold on to her for longer, even though it wasn't a bad ride but she had shown similar tendencies before.

Duchess Dora failed to get her head in-front throughout the rest of her 3 year old campaign, but she still ran some very good races and her next 5 races consisted of form reading ; 4-3-4-4-3, never beaten further than 2¼ lengths, including a tilt at Listed level, where she pulled too hard early on but still managed a staying-on 1¼l 4th. She had 4 more starts from September onwards, but disappointed in all bar one and that was on her return to an unconventional track. Whether York will actually play to her strengths is debatable, but she has run well here in the past when rated 8lbs higher and I see no obvious reason why she can't improve on her 3rd placed effort that day, even though some of the opposition are better than what she faced then. The ground today is also ideal and she comes here on the back of a recent comeback run, for which she was a well-backed 7/1 shot (from 16's) in a 17 runner race at her beloved Beverley. She traveled strongly but got hampered in the run-in, which led to Paul Hanagan giving her an easy time of it inside the closing stages, as she couldn't of won anyways. That run should bring her on a fair bit and I expect a much better performance here, with things likely to suit.

They'll go a good pace and she should get a grand position from stall 3. I expect to see her tanking along coming into the final couple of furlongs and if she can be waited with for a while and produced late by Kieran O'Neill, she'll be bang in contention to pick up 1 of the available 4 places, at the very least. Young 5lb claimer Keiran O'Neill looks to be a very promising jockey and he seems to produce his best results around the sprint distances. He's been picking up rides for the likes of Richard Hannon, Paul Cole and Andrew Balding since he's moved over from Ireland, so he seems to be held in fairly regard. He's already had 5 wins, 4 seconds and 8 thirds from his first 46 rides (11% SR) this year, which isn't bad for a young up-and-coming 5lb claimer. His claim leaves Duchess Dora carrying an exceptionally low racing-weight of just 7st 11lbs and that's surely a plus. Ian Brennan had previously formed a good relationship with this horse and despite being an in-experienced claimer too, he won first time up on this filly, so hopefully O'Neill can follow suit. John Quinn's yard aren't in great form since a hot-streak in Feb/March, but they're capable of coming back into form at any stage and are sure to have this filly in good knick here. Overall, I think this strong-travelling type can go very well here if she can run to her ability, as she's definitely well-handicapped, suited by conditions, well-drawn and overpriced at 8/1. Chances are that she'll be getting involved here and I'll play medium each-way stakes that she does exactly that.

x PyRo · 12-05-2011 2:56am

3:00 York - Crystal Gal - 1.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

I can't help but think that there's a lot more to come from this 4 year old filly, who recently joined the Lucy Wadham stable for a princely sum of 150,000gns, having previously run out of the Kevin Prendergast stable in Ireland. Whislt Crystal Gal doesn't exactly inspire form students on her most recent outing for her new yard, she showed she can cut the mustard at a top level when finishing a 3 length 7th in the Irish 1,000 Guineas last year. It wasn't an amazing run by any means but given that it was a big field Group 1 contest with many classy types, I'm of the opinion that it was an effort to suggest that she'd be well treated in a handicap off a mark of 99, especially around a track like York, which should suit her running style. 6 of her 8 runs last year came at The Curragh, with the other couple coming at Leopardstown, and despite having gained her only win at the former track, she seemed most at home on the flatter Leopardstown track, despite holding a lower level of form there (ground was soft both times, possible excuse but ran well enough both times).

York, being a very fair track and a galloping horses dream, should be exactly to the liking of this well-bred daughter of Galileo, who looks sure to have a future over further, but for now, a truly run mile could, and should, suffice. She also has form on pretty much all ground, so whatever the going is shouldn't be a worry, although she produced her best on fast-ish ground in that Group 1 race last May. She has also placed at Group 3 & Listed level and was deemed good enough to run in the Irish Oaks, although never got involved. Surely a good run off a mark of 99 in a handicap is not beyond her, despite the fact that she has a very inconsistent profile.

Crystal Gal made her debut for the Wadham yard on the first day of this month, over 1m 1f at Newmarket. She never really looked at home on the track that day and pulled like a train for the opening few furlongs, eventually forcing Paul Hanagan to allow her to make the running. She emptied very quickly from the 3f pole and didn't fill anyone with much confidence, but she's entitled to come on for the run and connections will now know a lot more about her despite it being a virtual no-show. That was also a Group 3 contest and she now drops into a Listed handicap, which may well prove to be below her abilities if she can find that sparkle of old. I'm a big fan of Lucy Wadham and she does well with the horses she's got. Whilst she doesn't exactly have many runners on the flat, so far she's had 3 winners and a second from just 5 runners.

The booking of Ryan Moore looks quite significant and she's only booked him on 2 occasions before, both of whom finished in second place, so hopefully they can go one better here. Wadham makes a 300+ mile journey to come to York, and she's only come here once before. It could be significant, or it could be worth nothing, but I think this track will be to the liking of Crystal Gal, who's a lot better than her pipe-opener for this yard showed. Ryan Moore has a cracking record around this course and should prove to be a big benefit to this animal. If he can get her switched off in behind the leaders or in mid-div, I think she'll have a chance of showing her true class assuming they go quick enough up front. She's soundly drawn in stall 9 and should be able to get a decent sit from there. Whether she's just gone completely off the boil or still remains her old ability is yet to be seen, but at a price of 25/1, she's surely worth taking a chance on here. 4 places are also being paid as there's 19 runners listed to go to post. She should appreciate a big field and a bit of cover, which is bound to see her settle down a bit (got too much daylight last time out). She's a risky one and could well finish a tailed-off last, but the price warrants taking a chance on and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes. Hopefully she'll go well and recapture some of her old efforts. I'd still consider her at 12/1 here, so 25's are very generous and may not last too long.

PyRo's Horse Bets.

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