PyRo's Horse Bets.

x PyRo · 12-05-2011 3:54am

4:45 York - Boston Blue - 1.5pts e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365)

This is a potentially mental bet as this horse showed little if anything for his new yard last time out but he certainly didn't give his true running and could be reignited by the return of a visor. Boston Blue isn't the most straight forward of characters, but he's extremely game and unexposed in the main, and very unexposed at these staying trips. He was exceptionally consistent in handicaps from 1m 3f to 2 miles last year, never beaten by more than 6 lengths despite looking down and out on a couple of occasions. He only managed to get his head in-front on one occasion, but also had 2 seconds and 3 thirds to his name in a season that consisted of a maiden run and 8 handicap outings. All of those outings were for William Knight, and whilst he remains with the same owners, he has since moved to the Tim Etherington yard. I'm not sure why he's moved, but Etherington isn't a half-bad trainer given his recent record with a very average string, plus he enjoyed a good time of it last year with 6 winners from just 57 runners. I don't know very much about him but he seems capable of getting winners and Boston Blue looks priced on stable prowess, or the lack of. Dale Swift also looks like an interesting booking for this yard and he had 22/1 & 25/1 winners for them last year. There's not many better 5lb claimers out there and he leaves this horse looking exceptionally well weighted, despite the toughness of the race.

Boston Blue gained his only win off a mark of 9lbs lower, but he has placed off 81 & 80, which he runs off today. However, Swift's 5lb claim brings him down to effectively run off 75 and the visor seems to bring the best out of him, as it did when he ran game races in defeat in both previously mentioned placings, where he showed a great attitude in both and only lost out on the bob in the latter at Newbury. He's unexposed over this sort of trip and has shaped as if it'd suit, so this mark could well prove to be below his actual abilities over this trip, on ground that's probably ideal. The track will suit his style and he's well drawn to get a nice early position. The handicapper has also dropped him 3lbs for that recent poor run but he was entitled to be in need of it and was without the headgear that day too. He was held up towards the rear in a race run at a good gallop and never got into it. With the extra distance, the return to a galloping track and the drop in the weights, I can see him outrunning his current price of 40/1. I'm getting tired now so I'm not going to mention all that I was going to but he's worth small/medium each-way stakes in a race where he's entitled to be a shorter price than this. 16's would be a fairer price in my opinion and if he returns to his old level of form, he'll be tough to keep out of the frame.

seanhynes · 12-05-2011 1:40pm

followed u,duchess didnt get a place:(

x PyRo · 13-05-2011 2:36am

Duchess Dora was well-supported in her bid to win second time up this season, but she saw too much light from a draw that ended up being unfavourable. 6th place was all she could muster in the end, although it was a promising run and she'll be landing another win very soon I'd imagine. Disappointing that she didn't place at least but them's the breaks.

Crystal Gal showed much more this time, compared to her debut for Lucy Wadham. However, she never really improved on her sit in mid-div and managed a 10th place finish, ending up 3¾l behind the winner. It wasn't spectacular but the yard have a nice type on their hands and she should get a little bit of leeway from the handicapper after that, which will keep me interested for next time out. She's classy on her day, but today wasn't it.

There was significant support for Boston Blue, who I backed at 40/1 last night. He eventually went off at 16/1 and the reapplied visor seemed to be doing the trick, as he got out quickly and settled into a nice rhythm in behind the leader. Dale Swift was still sitting fairly quietly on him coming into the last half mile, which I wasn't expecting as this fellow is usually under the pump a fair way out.

They were in a 3-way tie for the lead with a few furlongs to go and Boston Blue still remained in with a shout until just over a furlong from home, but he weakened there after to finish 8th in the end. Once again, this animal showed a lot more than he did last time out and he'll probably remain of interest over similar staying trips again. It may just be that he needed that run to be fully wound up and I'd like to see him at that sort of trip (2m+) again, either at Pontefract or Goodwood.

-10pts on the day and a fairly hefty loss. That's tough to take but I'll soldier on and pray for a change of fortune at some stage soon. It's Friday the 13th today, so given that this is an unlucky day, it's bound to reverse my jinx and I'll find a winner!

2:00 York - Deauville Flyer - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

Talented 5 year old who progressed nicely last year, mainly over staying distances which seem to be his strong point but also has a course win over this 1m 4f trip to his name. Deauville Flyer made a pleasing return to action this year when running over 2 miles at Ripon, where he finished 5 lengths off the pace on ground possibly too lively for his liking, but he stall ran up to his mark. Being a horse who seemed to need his run last year, I'm expecting a much better performance here, with fitness likely to improve and conditions to suit at the track where he gained both of his handicap wins last year (off 80 & 84, the latter easily). The form of Tim Easterby's yard is a slight worry, as they've only had 3 winners from their last 64 runners, which is quite poor by his standards. However, plenty of his runners have shaped as if being in need of the run and plenty of them have finished in the places, so whilst the overall win stats look poor, it may be overstating the problem. They seem to hold this fellow in high regard and expect even more improvement in his 5 year old campaign, even though this fine son of Dubai Destination is still 8lbs above his last victory, he strikes me as the type to do even better with age and he's still not overly exposed having only had 17 career outings.

It could easily be argued that Deauville Flyer is an out-and-out stayer who won't be suited to this trip off a mark of 92, but he has a high cruising speed that helps him travel extremely well when on song. If he can get into his stride nice and early on the back of what I hope will be a strong pace, I can't see him failing to get involved once they turn into the long home straight here, which will help to give him plenty of time to finish with his traditional late flourish. Another positive is the booking of Kieren Fallon, who has a cracking record when riding Easterby's older horses. In 27 outings, he's gained victory on 7 occasions, giving the pairing a strike-rate of 26%. Fallon was also on board this fellow when he finished with a late rally to get up to beat The Fonz over C&D, and that fellow's an 8/1 shot here, yet they meet on identical terms, with both deemed to have improved 12lbs since. I can't understand how Easterby's runner is a bigger priced given that he beat the Stoute trained horse despite being totally unsuited to how the race panned out, and the ground was much quicker than I believe to be ideal. I expect to see that form upheld given the likely strong pace and slightly slower ground, which are both in my selections favour.

Current and likely favourite, Kansai Spirit, was a nice winner for me on a couple of occasions last year. However, I think he'll be doing excellent to get involved here off a mark of 98. He's obviously progressive and going the right way, but he looks to short to get involved with in a field like this. Fitness also has to be taken on trust in what is his first outing since the beginning of September. I feel he's vulnerable here, even though he's likely to be up to contesting Listed/Group 3 level at some stage in the coming months. The price just doesn't make the risk with it, for all that he is talented. Chilly Filly was another outsider who interested me at 25/1, as she should relish the return to a sound surface, having failed to impress on her final start for the Johnston yard on soft ground. James Given is bound to get a win out of her at some stage but she has form to overturn with a few of the runners here and may find it tough to defy a mark of 92. I also think she'll need slightly further to be at her best, unless the handicapper gives her a chance. Many more come into the conclusion but I've a strong fancy for Deauville Flyer, who's talented, suited to conditions, a strong traveler and a very likely improver throughout the year. He should be spot on for having had a recent outing and looks overpriced at an attractive 14/1. Medium each-way stakes and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go off single figures tomorrow. I just hope it's not run at a muddling pace, because if it is, this fellow will find it very tough to get involved. There's a few potential pace angles though, and I expect it'll be a truly run contest, with Tim Easterby hopefully picking up the £25,900 prize for the winner.

x PyRo · 13-05-2011 4:06am

3:35 York - Captain Kolo - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)

Not usually a race I'd bet in but Captain Kolo could be worth siding with at a nice price in this 3 year old handicap. He's probably going to be a better animal over further, but for now this may not be beyond his capabilities if he comes on for his recent outing over this 5 furlong trip at Haydock. This is another one trained by Tim Easterby, and connections backed him strongly in that contest last month, where he finished a 5 length 10th, behind a couple of todays rivals. This well-bred and sizable gelding was sent off the 9/2 second favourite, having been backed in from an opening show of 13/2. He broke well and took a prominent position in behind the very solid gallop. However, David Allen, who deserts him today, was rowing a long way from home and Captain Kolo couldn't go with them and stayed on at the one pace. Being a sizable animal, he was entitled to need the run and it's quite possible that the very lively ground wasn't suitable, even though he seemed to move well on it. He's bred to appreciate slower ground, as shown when winning a Catterick maiden on his second career start last year. The ground was soft that day and that proved to be ideal as he showed plenty of bright early speed to get over from a poor draw to make all of the running and score a shade cosily. The form of the race isn't exactly brilliant, but this horse is very talented and showed plenty of potential on that day back in October (didn't appear until the previous month, had colic).

On breeding, Captain Kolo would be expected to improve with age. He's only had 4 runs too, and although he disappointed last time out, he's shown more than enough to suggest that a handicap mark of 76 should be below him. It's possible that he'll need an extra furlong to improve on this mark, but with the ground not as lively today as it was last time out, I think we could see a good run over this trip, plus with 4 places being paid and odds of 18/1, he's surely worth taking a chance on. David Allan deserts him to ride the other charge from this stable, but Duran Fentiman gets the leg up and I think he's a more than decent jockey. He's riding quite well of late and getting plenty of winners. This is one of only two rides for Duran at York, although the other is on Mister Hughie in the next race and that's looks to be his main one. Of the rest, Eland Ally interested me at big odds of 28/1, given the bright speed she showed on a few occasions. It's a risk backing her now that she's dropping down in trip and this is her seasonal debut, so I'll pass over for the time being. The well-bred Stoute filly, Apace, has claimes if appreciating the drop in trip, but she's another that you'd have to take a leap at and odds of 12/1 don't really appeal given that she previously relished a step up to 7f and now runs over 5f. It's interesting, but I can't get my head around how she'll go. Many more come into it but Captain Kolo is worth siding with at the price, and it could get bigger in the morning. I'll forgive his poor effort last time out and hope he'll come on significantly for it, because if he does, he's sure to have a good chance here. The track is taken to suit and I think the slower ground (even though it's still fast enough) could see him in a better light. He's probably one for the latter stages of the season, but minimal each-way stakes won't hurt and I'll take a chance.

x PyRo · 13-05-2011 4:59am

4:10 York - Our Jonathan - 3pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Half asleep so I'm keeping this one relatively short, but Kevin Ryan's 4 year old gelding, Our Jonathan, looks to have very solid claims off a mark of 94 in this 6f sprint. He was a Group 3 winning juvenile and like many of those, went on to struggle as a 3 year old, in a season which he began with a rating of 111. Things looked set to be tough but having had 6 runs last year, he returned to Doncaster to run off a mark of 93 and after being gelded. In the hands of Jamie Spencer, who also rides today, the Marwan Koukash trained sprinter finished a good running-on ¾l 3rd of 20, behind Horseradish, who he re-opposes on 3lb better terms, enough to overturn the form I believe.

Our Jonathan was held up at the rear of the field that day and had to take a passage on the outer of the field to challenge. He made rapid headway but the winner had flown and got first run, whilst Kevin Ryan's charge had already been under the pump to pass all bar one. It was a very encouraging return for this well-bred son of Invincible Spirit and I expect to see an even better effort here. The Ryan yard are in cracking form with 14 winners from 62 runners (23%) in the past fortnight and Jamie Spencer is riding well and rides well here. The Marwan Koukash owned runners are going very well and he's having a cracking year so far, with 21% of his runners seeing the winners enclosure. This looks a very achievable target for Our Jonathan and he should go very well, with everything to suit. It's a very competitive handicap and there's 4 horses vying for favouritisim at the moment, but I think 7/1 is a very fair price about this fellow and he's worth a medium sized stake.

Of the rest, I'd be interested in my old favourite Cheveton, but only if the heavens opened and flooded the ground. It'll be hard for him to defy his current rating but a few bad runs and leeway from the handicapper will see him become very interesting towards the end of the season again. Although he's getting on in years and who knows how much he has left to give. He's a classy handicapper though and it's be nice to see him go well again. Mister Hughie also runs, and I'm avoiding him for the first time in an age because I don't think he'll appreciate this trip at this track. If he wins I'll break down in tears and never gamble again! He's bound to win now. Anyways, I'm sticking with the Ryan/Spencer/Koukash combination to land the spoils here.

Lavattack · 13-05-2011 2:37pm

x PyRo wrote: »

4:10 York - Our Jonathan - 3pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

Half asleep so I'm keeping this one relatively short, but Kevin Ryan's 4 year old gelding, Our Jonathan, looks to have very solid claims off a mark of 94 in this 6f sprint. He was a Group 3 winning juvenile and like many of those, went on to struggle as a 3 year old, in a season which he began with a rating of 111. Things looked set to be tough but having had 6 runs last year, he returned to Doncaster to run off a mark of 93 and after being gelded. In the hands of Jamie Spencer, who also rides today, the Marwan Koukash trained sprinter finished a good running-on ¾l 3rd of 20, behind Horseradish, who he re-opposes on 3lb better terms, enough to overturn the form I believe.

Our Jonathan was held up at the rear of the field that day and had to take a passage on the outer of the field to challenge. He made rapid headway but the winner had flown and got first run, whilst Kevin Ryan's charge had already been under the pump to pass all bar one. It was a very encouraging return for this well-bred son of Invincible Spirit and I expect to see an even better effort here. The Ryan yard are in cracking form with 14 winners from 62 runners (23%) in the past fortnight and Jamie Spencer is riding well and rides well here. The Marwan Koukash owned runners are going very well and he's having a cracking year so far, with 21% of his runners seeing the winners enclosure. This looks a very achievable target for Our Jonathan and he should go very well, with everything to suit. It's a very competitive handicap and there's 4 horses vying for favouritisim at the moment, but I think 7/1 is a very fair price about this fellow and he's worth a medium sized stake.

Of the rest, I'd be interested in my old favourite Cheveton, but only if the heavens opened and flooded the ground. It'll be hard for him to defy his current rating but a few bad runs and leeway from the handicapper will see him become very interesting towards the end of the season again. Although he's getting on in years and who knows how much he has left to give. He's a classy handicapper though and it's be nice to see him go well again. Mister Hughie also runs, and I'm avoiding him for the first time in an age because I don't think he'll appreciate this trip at this track. If he wins I'll break down in tears and never gamble again! He's bound to win now. Anyways, I'm sticking with the Ryan/Spencer/Koukash combination to land the spoils here.

Really ??:D:D

UrbanSea · 13-05-2011 2:56pm

I don't think Mister Hughie strikes me as the type that wants to be giving away lumps of weight anyway.

ft9 · 13-05-2011 4:05pm

I just got on Our Jonathon, into 9/2 now with PP.

Hope I bring you some luck, haven't been on your selections in a while!

x PyRo · 14-05-2011 12:42am

Sorry lads. Not to be. The gambling Gods hate me!

Another day of frustration and disappointment with 2 more places to add to my records, with a winner continuing to elude me. First up was the 1m 4f contest at York, where I'd backed Deauville Flyer at 14/1. I was fairly confident in him placing and he duly obliged, but looked likely to win at one stage. He hit 2.68 in running when joining the leaders down the middle of the track and despite staying on pretty well, he couldn't keep up and finished a gallant 4th. There'll be another nice handicap in him at some stage, but I'd imagine it'll come over further. Cracking effort from him all the same and he saved the day from being a disaster.

Captain Kolo got some rain before the off and this should of helped him a lot, but he was outpaced at halfway and never landed a blow, eventually coming home in 11th. He's definitely one to side with in the future and will be interesting upped in trip on slower ground. He's talented and speedy, but today wasn't his day. A sharp 6f would be ideal and he has plenty of scope for improvement. Definitely one for the shortlist.

Of the rest, Eland Ally was my second choice when she was 28/1 last night. Connections got stuck in and she eventually went off at 12/1. She ran into a place and looks one for the future, although reserved tactics over 6f will probably be her optimum for the moment. Apace was the other one that came into consideration and she also placed, coming 2nd in the end. The step down in trip was clearly a plus given how things panned out and she showed plenty of pace, but is another one who'll probably ply her trade over 6f. The winner was another one I looked at and he was dropping down in trip too. I avoided him because of how well he stayed up the Pontefract hill and thought this would be too much of a speed test for him, but alas, it was ideal. Them's the breaks.

Our Jonathan was my only straight win bet on the day and I really fancied his chances. He was fairly well supported throughout the day but it proved to be another frustrating selection as he could only muster 3rd place, despite finishing like a train. Spencer had him held up in rear and decided to try zig-zag his way through the field. I don't think it was a bad ride or anything but he went searching for gaps that just weren't there, even though there's plenty of those stories in big-field sprints. This horse will land a nice handicap at some stage soon, but he'll need luck if they pursue with such reserved tactics, although it seems to be the way to get the best out of him. It was a good run mind and he got within 1½ lengths of a Group horse running in a handicap. Cracking run from the second too and 3rd place was a fine effort from Kevin Ryan's well handicapped 4 year old.

+/- 0pts on the day. Could be worse. A winner would be nice though.

1:45 Newmarket - San Cassiano - 1.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365)

A very decent 1 mile handicap in the offing here. The one catching my eye at tasty odds is the Ruth Carr trained 4 year old, San Cassiano, who like most of his stablemate's, looks exceptionally well handicapped following a few disappointing efforts when the yard couldn't buy a winner. However, the excellent Ruth Carr has witnessed her string improve dramatically in recent weeks, with 6 winners from her last 17 runners giving her an excellent 35% strike-rate for the past fortnight, with a massive LSP of +£44.50p. She's on a run that God would be proud of and now makes a 350 mile round trip to run just the one horse at Newmarket, which looks mightily interesting given that she's only had 1 previous runner on the Rowley mile, and that was a 10/1 winner this time last year. The omens look good and this fellow certainly has enough raw ability to get involved here at a course he's built to love.

San Cassiano was previously trained by Ralph Beckett, but proved most disappointing after winning a 6 furlong maiden in impressive style on debut. He ran well next time out as a 2 year old but failed to make any sort of impression when he returned next season, failing miserably in bids to defy handicap marks of 89 & 90, before running poorly in a 7f claimer on his final start for that yard. Connections sent him to Ruth Carr's yard for a change of scenery and it had an instant effect, as he won a competitive 13 runner handicap over a mile at Ripon in the style of a decent horse, scoring by 2 lengths off a career low mark of 78. He reappeared a week later under a 6lb penalty at this track, but ran on the July course. That race represented a step up in class but he showed great determination to get the win despite taking the lead a furlong out and being quickly headed. He does shape as if in need of further than this trip, but a the Rowley Mile should provide a good enough test and he has the ability to go close.

San Cassiano then ran a decent race at Listed level before bombing out at Ripon on his final start of 2010. He's had 3 runs already this season, disappointing on the first couple before running what I thought was a respectable race at Chester last time out. It was a very competitive handicap in which my selection was trapped wide throughout in the hands of Franny Norton, and despite not having the pace to threaten the leaders at any stage, he continued to gallop on until the line and shaped as if a return to form may not be too far away. He wasn't an obvious eye-catcher, but this track is taken to suit him a lot better than Chester did and I feel that it will be a sufficient stamina test, even though he has a reasonable cruising speed too. He's game, responds to pressure, and is suited by conditions. Added to that, he's given a chance by the handicapper and is now just 1lb above his last winning mark, a mark which looked well below him on the day he won. Whether he can truly find his best form is yet to be seen, but the signs from the yard suggest their horses are running themselves back to form and that great to see. I expect Ruth Carr will have plenty of nice priced winners throughout the summer and she's definitely a trainer to keep on your side. Ignore the stats for her throughout the winter and just look forward to making money on her animals during the summer. She can train horses exceptionally well, despite plenty of people claiming otherwise.

This will be a tough race to win by all means, with the inclusion of a Godolphin horse, Con Artist, who could be a Group horse in waiting. I just couldn't be taking 4/1 about him and reckon he's far too risky a proposition, even though he warrants maximum respect here given connections and his previous potential. Andrew Balding's Brick Red is another very talented animal but he's likely to have other targets planned for him and may need a bit of rain regardless of that. Hughie Morrison has had a slow start to the year and I wouldn't be too keen on Nazreef here, even though he shaped well in the Spring Cup last time out. He's still entitled to go well and be there or thereabouts, but the price isn't attractive enough for me. There's plenty of others who could have fair cases made for them but I'm going to stick with Ruth Carr here. She books Seb Sanders for the ride and that also looks interesting. He took the reins on San Cassiano in that Listed run at Goodwood and has 2 wins from just 12 rides for this yard. He also rides the track well and is prone to the odd big-priced winner here too. 22/1 is too big for this animal and I wouldn't be surprised to see him go very well. He doesn't have that instant turn of foot that you'd like to see, but he gallops and gallops all day when on song. As previously mentioned, conditions are ideal and I'm pretty sure the track is built to suit him. 12's would be my idea of a fairer price about him and I'll have a small/medium each-way bet on him making the frame. The yards form can't be ignored and this fellow looks to have a decent chance of increasing their recent string of brilliant results. He'll probably sit in either behind or alongside the pace and hopefully it'll give way and he'll gallop on to the line to win. He won't do things overly quick, but he's resolute and capable. Hopefully he'll go well.

x PyRo · 14-05-2011 2:35am

2:50 Newmarket - La Vecchia Scuola - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Another good race to get stuck into now and I'm siding with Jim Goldie's mare La Vecchia Scuola, who looks to be the stables second string based on the betting, but I think it's all wrong. Whilst this 7 year old disappointed in the Chester Cup over 2m 2½f last time out, I fancy her to come back with a much improved effort at a course where she ran beyond exceptionally well on her only start here. That was in the 32-runner Cesarewitch Handicap over 2m 2f on Good-to-Soft ground, from a 4lb lower mark that she faces today. She was sent off as a 33/1 shot that day and there was fair doubts over her ability to handle the trip, as it's a fair test of stamina. William Buick, who's also on board today, settled her towards the rear and she traveled very well throughout. The pair made steady headway from 3f out and came with a storm run to chase the winner under strong urging from Buick, but despite his best efforts, they couldn't past the winner who had 10lbs less weight to carry. That was a cracking effort given the stamina test and cut in the ground, which given her overall profile, doesn't seem to be ideal. Todays ground is much faster, and despite stepping down a ½ mile in trip, this should be a much more suitable test.

La Vecchia Scuola was under the pump a fair way from home in the Chester Cup, but that was only her second start of the year and her first in this code. She ran a shocker in the same race last year (after very long layoff, but was supported) before finishing a gallant 2nd over 1m 5½f at the same track next time out (20/1). I'm hoping she'll put in a much better effort here too and the price looks much too big. Despite being a good stayer on the flat, she has plenty of speed too, having won over 1m 4f at Pontefract last August. The ability to see out this trip on the back of a solid gallop is vital, and I've no doubts that she'll be able to travel sweetly on the back of a quick gallop. I'd like to see similar tactics as used in the Cesarewitch, where she was held up before coming with a late run to put in a career best performance. Whether they'll do that is debatable as she raced handy on her previous couple of starts on the flat.

Goldie's yard seem in good knick and they're making a hell of a journey (750 mile round trip) to run this mare and Nanton. That horse hasn't won for a year and a half, although he has raced in some good company in the mean time. He's still a couple of pounds higher than his last win and although he shaped quite well over a shorter trip last time out, I think the two Goldie runners are priced the wrong way around. I could list danger after danger all night, but I'm going to take a small each-way chance on La Vecchia Scuola. I think this race will pan out in her favour much more than her outing last time out and the return to Newmarket can only be a plus. The one worry is the ground may be too fast, as perfectly good ground is where she does most of her winning, but she's run well on GF before. William Buick knows the horse having ridden her on two occasions and I think it's a positive to see him booked again, especially as he's riding well of late. I thought she'd be around 14's and certainly not 25/1 (28/1 non best-odds with SJ), which looks too generous. Small each-way bet for me and hopefully she'll go well. A little bit of rain would do no harm either (light showers possible).

x PyRo · 14-05-2011 3:30am

2:35 Newbury - Kingsgate Choice - 2pts e/w @ 25/1 (StanJames)

Can't see 25/1 lasting long for this fellow, as it's much too big and only available with the one firm. Kingsgate Choice was originally thought of as a top-class sprinter, expected to make it into a Nunthorpe Stakes competitor, and despite having plenty of poor runs to his name since originally showing loads of promise, he looks thrown in here with a mark of 87. His recent efforts warrant that mark but I think he made a decent return to action when finishing a 6¾ length 11th in similarly competitive handicap from a poor draw at Ascot. Whilst he was outpaced in last and looking likely to stay there coming to the 2 pole of the 6 furlongs, he was running on quite well inside the last and made plenty of ground. He's fully entitled to come on for that outing and did seem to need it last year. On his second run last year, he ran in 5f handicap off a mark of 74 at Ffos Las, and despite taking a strong hold, he ran out a more than convincing winner. He beat nothing that day but he done it in a grand style.

Next time out, over 5 furlongs at Windsor, Kingsgate Choice lined up off a mark of 81. Whilst it wasn't a race that would hold a candle to much of the form on offer elsewhere in this race, the then 3 year old colt won it in a very nice style once again, beating a horse named Humidor, who was most progressive after that and was last seen beating the current favourite for todays race with a bit to spare off 87. My selection absolutely hammered him that day and only found top gear in the final furlong, so a return to anything like his best will see this 25/1 price-tag look absolutely huge. Whether he's capable of doing that is unknown but I like backing horses who've shown little since being initially impressive. Talent doesn't just fade away in a few runs and this horse always looked like he'd make into a nice 6f sprinter. He disappointed in 2 of his 3 subsequent runs but in-between those efforts was a fine 1½l 5th place in a similar handicap to this, off a 3lb higher mark (over 5f). Kingsgate Choice met trouble in running that day and still ran very well, shaping as if a step up in trip would do no harm. I think he's given a very big chance here and should be perfectly suited to conditions. 4 year olds have won all 4 runnings of this race and with 8 of the 19 runners being that age, I think the recent trend will be holding up.

Kingsgate Choice has only had 9 outings and is only 4 year old, so there's still a high possibility of much more progression to come. Todays galloping track should suit him perfectly and he's likely to get a strong pace to run at, which is usually the case in sprints anyways! Assuming he comes back to anything like his best, he has a great chance of picking up one of the four available places. He's running off a mark of 87 but Kieren Fox takes off a handy 3lbs to make him look weighted even better. Fox is a very good young jockey and has 1 win and 2 seconds from just 5 rides around the Rowley course, the winner being a 25/1 shot also. Hopefully that's a good omen! He also has a very good record on the turf for trainer John Best, with 11 winners and 11 places from just 75 rides, giving the combination an impressive 15% strike-rate and a massive LSP of +£56. Best seems to have his yard in great shape, with 4 winners from his last 12 outings, including wins at odds of 8/1, 10/1 and 12/1. If this horse is to reach his potential then he's surely going to go close at some stage soon and hopefully it's today. Early on in the season should be his time of year and I think that recent run should have him spot on. I'm playing medium each-way stakes here and fingers crossed that he justifies it. He's a very talented horse and it'll all come together some day soon. Too many dangers to list once again but Summerinthecity (33/1) could be another lively outsider. I'll just stick with the one though.

x PyRo · 15-05-2011 3:05am

I managed to get everything spectacularly wrong yesterday. San Cassiano was still in with a shout coming into the last couple but he faded away when the tempo lifted. He's bound to get another couple of lbs from the handicapper and I'll be sticking with him, as he's up to winning off a mark in the 80's. Disappointing effort today mind.

La Vecchia Scuola was reported to have hated the ground and was never involved, whilst Kingsgate Choice showed a bit more dash before fading out of contention. I'll be sticking with the latter for a while yet, as he's exceptionally well handicapped if he comes back to himself. Going to leave Goldie's Mare well alone until she gets slower ground.

-9pts on the day. Horrible stuff but a couple of winners could rectify the whole lot. I've had 14 places (at decent prices) since my last winner, so no need to panic and change things around just yet.

3:10 Ripon - Kerrys Requiem - 2pts e/w @ 12/1 (PaddyPower)

Another 6f sprint to get stuck into here and I'm quite sweet on the chances of Kerrys Requiem, who makes her debut for the Tim Pitt yard. Despite having a record of just 2 wins from 36 outings, this 5 year old mare is consistent in the main, talented, and running off a career low mark. Whilst she has an 8 month layoff to overcome, I think she can get competitive here in this Fillies' Handicap. As a 2 year old, she was very decent and even has a place at Listed level to her name. The handicapper rated her as a 102 performer at one stage, but that dropped after she ran poorly in Group 2 and a Listed race, with a long layoff coming in-between both. She failed to get her head in-front as a 3 year old but had many decent efforts to her name, including placed efforts off marks of 85, 87, 88 and 89, the latter two coming over this C&D. She ran well as a 4 year old, winning once and making the frame in no fewer than 6 other outings. She had a fairly hectic season though and her form rather tailed off towards the end of it, bar the odd decent run.

It's clear that she acts to her best on sharp tracks and that's where the majority of her best form lies, having gained her only wins around Windsor and Goodwood, with good runs coming at Pontefract, Epsom, Brighton and Folkstone. This Ripon track is perfect for her, assuming she gets a good toe into the race, which is very likely here. Her C&D form reads 3(88)-3(89)-4(84), all much higher marks than she faces here today and she was exceptionally unlucky in her first outing here (hit 2/5 in-running then badly hampered when flashing home to win). She deserves compensation for that effort and I think she'll go close here.

Kerrys Requiem has had some interesting reviews from trainer Tim Pitt, who recently (last Sunday) had this to say about her on his blog -

"She has really blossomed of late and we do not have anything quick enough to lead her in recent work mornings. Even the application of blinkers to her regular lead horse on saturday was not enough but at least it had the desired effect on him and he was able to lead her a gear quicker and a shade further than in previous work mornings. Although she has only won twice from 36 lifetime starts she looks to run fairly consitently and has a 36% strike rate of finishing in the money as she has either won or been placed in 13 of her 36 lifetime starts. Watching her past races she looks as if she needs her head putting on the line and we will learn more about her after next week but she seems in very good form at home."

Fairly positive words to say the least, although whether she'll be readied first time up is anyones guess, but Kerrys Requiem ran a very good 2nd (from 3lb higher) first time up last year in heavy ground (wouldn't be ideal). Given that she has fast ground today and is likely to get a good toe into the race, I'm expecting a big performance and can't believe that one firm is offering 12/1. I'd of expected half that but there's no need to complain! Her trainer, Tim Pitt, had a lovely 28/1 winner with his last runner and is a very talented trainer, plus he has a fine record with sprinters. He's only based 30 odd miles up the road but came here to run just 6 horses last year, getting 2 wins (7/2 & 8/1) and another 2 places (11/2 & 9/1). They're very impressive stats around here, although it's from a limited number of runners. The man can certainly train 'em and previously turned a 90-rated 5 year old handicapper (and failed hurdler!) into a 2-time Group 1 winning Sprinter back in 2006. He's obviously not had the horses since getting 31 winners back in '06 and now only has a dozen animals in the yard, but he's more than capable of getting the best out of them and should have plenty of fun with this mare.

Again, how straight-forward she'll be on debut for her new yard and seasonal reappearance is yet to be seen, but at the odds, it's worth a go. Sean Levey, former Ballydoyle apprentice, takes the reins and he was the man who guided Pitt's 28/1 horse over the line last Thursday, on what was his first ride for the trainer. Levey is a very talented 3lb claimer and leaves Kerrys Requiem running effectively off a mark of 78. That should be enough to see her get involved if all's right and todays conditions are spot on. One firm goes 7/1, another 8's and another 9's, but the 12/1 on offer is much too big to turn down. I'm having a medium sized each-way bet and all going well, she'll come into the conclusion at some stage anyways. Two of the 3 year olds are currently heading the market, and although they're getting a 10lb allowance from the older fillies, I can't back them at such an early stage in the season, although they've got good claims getting that weight. I'll stick with the Pitt/Levey combination to come up trumps again and hopefully end my baron spell, which shows no signs of ending...

x PyRo · 16-05-2011 2:19am

It's very easy to make excuses but Kerrys Requiem was quite unlucky today I thought. She got slightly hampered coming out of the gates and despite seeming to travel quite well, Sean Levey couldn't find a gap for her to go through at all. He first went looking for a run through about 3f from home, then kept looking for another couple of furlongs, before he seemed to have the chance to switch left about 1f out, which he didn't accept. The horse was then left to come home at her own pace and only managed 7th in the end. She wouldn't of won anyways, but I'd take a guess that she would of managed a place if the splits came at the right time. Disappointing nonetheless but there's races to be won with her, even though she finds trouble quite often.

To kick me whilst I'm down, Pepper Lane made all to win, and I spent the last half of last season backing her religiously (without success). I thought this was possibly too competitive, but she obviously goes well fresh and likes these tracks. Pity I just didn't give her one more chance.

-4pts on the day. Spending more time on the races for now and much less time writing (or rambling) about them.

3:00 Bath - Bilash - 3pts @ 5/1 (Bet365)

I think that Reg Hollinshead's grey 4 year old colt, Bilash, should be the favourite for this race. Whilst he's not blessed with oceans of talent or potential, he could still prove beyond this mark of 68. He was a frustrating type during 2010, as he finished 2nd on 4 of his 9 outings, including some efforts that suggest he could be better than his rating. However, he finally got that elusive win added to his record on reappearance this year, but he managed to dead-heat with my old foe Absa Lutte, who I left well alone that day, of course. It was still a very good effort in a tougher race than this and I think the extra half furlong he'll face today will suit, as he was doing his best work late on and showed a decent turn of foot for once, which isn't usually the case. The fast ground is perfect and he has a C&D 2nd to his name on good-to-soft ground on his final start of 2010. Similar hold-up tactics to those deployed last time out will be used again I hope, as the pace is likely to be strong and I think they'll be coming back to Bilash as he begins to motor late on. He doesn't do anything too quick, but I expect a good run here.

Hollinshead makes a 230 mile round trip to come to a track where he has done reasonably well with limited runners and his stable are in fine knick of late. This is his only runner of the day and the booking of Jim Crowley looks a big plus, given that he's 5 from 27 (19%) for the yard. This is one of two rides for Crowley at Bath, before he heads off to Windsor, and his track record ain't half-bad. There's a few decent types in opposition, although plenty have very patchy records, including some of the market principles. The Name Is Frank was the other one I thought had a reasonable chance and he could be worth a small saver too. Wooden King is in the form of his life but looks much too short in the betting. He's a full stone higher than his C&D win in October and should be there to be shot at. Could have another win in him and is clearly on an upward curve despite being 6, but 11/4 is very skinny. Sermons Mount could go well if he's let, but he's 1 from 26 (win came over C&D) with 9 seconds for a reason, and despite being 16/1, I just can't back him with confidence. Has claims, like many of the rest, but probably best left alone. Overall, I think Bilash is worth siding with to follow up on his dead-heat victory (if I can call it that?) 9 days ago. Medium stakes, as I think he should be the favourite. He can throw in the odd shocker but I can see no obvious reason to suggest he won't go well.

x PyRo · 16-05-2011 3:14am

7:30 Windsor - Urban Space - 1.5pts e/w @ 33/1 (WillHill)

Fairly competitive handicap here with a few potential improver's lining up, but I'm siding with Conor Dore's Urban Space, who's been running poorly on the all-weather since joining this yard (once on turf, inadequate trip to blame). However, he returns to the scene of his last 4 career victories and he seems to love it around here. His course form (all around 10-12f) reads ; 5-2-1-2-1-2-1-2-1, which is impressive in any mans book. He handles all ground, is now rated 1lb lower than his last handicap win and has placed from a 5lb higher mark over 1m 2f at this course. Everything points in his favour here and I don't for one second believe that he's declined so much since leaving John Flint's yard last October. He hasn't beaten a rival home in his last 4 starts but doesn't seem to act too well on the AW and his only turf start was over 7 furlongs, which is way short of his optimum. He's now back running at 1m 3½f and that should be a big help, even without the return to this track.

Jim Crowley is one of the top jockeys around this course and I'm siding with him once again, as he takes his first ride for Conor Dore's yard. This looks to be a very interesting jockey booking and hopefully he'll prove a big plus the the horse, who has plenty of talent, but I don't think he's been allowed to show it of late. It's possible that he could tail off and finish last again but the odds make a small each-way go worth it. Owner Andrew Page had a similar type last year, who Dore bought out of a seller. That one ran some average race before they booked Eddie Ahern to ride him off a career-low mark. He was quite well-backed but still went off at 8/1, which turned out to be massive as the horse went on to win a 7f handicap by an eased down 6 lengths. I'm not saying anything like that will happen but the booking of Crowley at one of his best venues looks very positive and the horse clearly loves it here. It could be a little sign that the horse will be going all out some day soon, although his form figures are a lot worse than those of the other horse they won with for the owner last year. Interesting enough all the same. Urban Space just might have a squeak at winning this and surely has a decent chance of placing at least. 33's look huge and I'd be surprised if they're available before the off, unless there's zero money around for him, which will put the writing on the wall before I've even taken out my spray can. It's an open contest and I wouldn't be surprised to see a mini-shock happen, as this horse is more than capable at this level. Surely he hasn't regressed that much in the space of half a year or so.

x PyRo · 17-05-2011 2:33am

Side note - 250,000 views.

Now if only I could give winners again...

Bilash ran alright to come 4th, didn't have the turn of foot to match the leading trio having traveled well. I'll probably leave him alone now as he looks very limited.

Urban Space ran well to come 3rd, landing the each-way part of my 33/1 bet. There was a 15p R4 too. He was trapped wide throughout and would of preferred a much stronger gallop, but stayed on stoutly despite never looking like winning. Could of been a different story if he got a nice position and a good toe into the race, but I'll take it! He's worth another go if returning to Windsor, where he enhanced his already impressive record.

+3.91pts on the day, not much, but a step in the right direction.

2:00 Nottingham - Restless Bay - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

I'm siding with Reg Hollinshead once again, this time with his 3 year old Restless Bay, who's probably the most exposed of the 14 runners here, but the majority of his 25 outings have come on the all-weather. He's a 3 time winner at Wolverhampton, where he goes particularly well, but he's still quite unexposed on turf and just 1lb above his last all-weather winning mark. Whilst he'll have to improve on his previous efforts, 20/1 looks too big and worthy of a small bet. He's often blown his chances over this trip by pulling too hard, but with a good pace likely, he should be able to pull out more in the finish than usually is the case. The fast ground is in his favour and a flat, galloping track looks ideal too. He's been on the go for a long time, racking up 25 runs in the space of 10 months or so, but he's been off for the last month and could return here a much fresher horse, despite it being a fairly short break. This race doesn't look overly tough either and despite plenty of potential lining up, this battle hardened 22,000gns purchase has the ability to defy joint top-weight here.

Restless Bay is still quite unexposed on turf, having only run on it 7 times, 3 over this trip. His distance form on turf reads ; 2-4-4, although the last of those was in a 4 runner conditions race, where he was very wrong at the weights. The other couple were in maidens and the form isn't worthwhile, but I think there's more to come from him over this trip on this surface. He's been competitive at class 3 & 4 level before, so the drop into a class 5 handicap should help, although he'll have more racing weight. However, that should be a plus given that he's up against inferior rivals, which could be what he wants, even though there's plenty here who could progress past his mark but I'll take a chance. He also ran well when 3 lengths behind Mr Optimistic over the minimum trip at Haydock last month. Whilst he only managed 6th in the end, he did break slowly before making decent progress, which didn't last too long. I think he was swept off his feet by quicker horses too easily and the return to further should suit (bred to get further than this too). Yard in good form, go well here and George Baker is a positive booking for his only ride of the day. 20/1 looks generous to me and he's worth minimal each-way stakes.

PEACEBROTHER · 17-05-2011 2:50pm

super pick Pyro , got him at 33s . A winner is coming very soon i can feel it

UrbanSea · 17-05-2011 8:46pm

Nice place. Won big winner to come would be nice!!

x PyRo · 19-05-2011 1:19am

Restless Bay ran a good race to land the each-way spoils at Nottingham. He was slowly into stride again but made good headway to contest the lead coming into the final furlong or so. He didn't really see it out as well as I'd hoped but held on for a small return all the same. Pity I took the night before price, as he was available at 33's during the day, before being backed into 20/1 on course.

+4pts on the day. Better than a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. I'll update the stats on Saturday, just gathering the courage to do so!

1:50 Haydock - The Caped Crusader - 1.5pts e/w @ 10/1 (WillHill)

The lack of any obvious pace is putting me off going in with a max each-way bet here, but The Caped Crusader looks to have a great chance of enhancing his good record in handicaps. Ollie Pears' 4 year old improved massively for having had a gelding operation (and a step up in trip), nearly making a winning debut in handicaps over this C&D on last years reappearance. He was sent off as a 33/1 shot that day but ran a cracker to finish ½ a length behind a Luca Cumani horse in the shape of Aktia, who was then rated 67 and is now rated 87. A few others have come out of that race and improved since, including todays selection for this race, who's now 10lbs higher than that run, but still looks well treated. He disappointed next time out when sent off as an odds-on favourite, but possibly through away his chance by pulling too hard, which he's done since. However, he won his on his next couple of outings, defying marks of 67 & 71 at Ripon and Chester respectively. Whilst both of those are sharp tracks, this fellow is a big, strong, long-striding horse, who looks like galloping tracks are exactly what he wants. He wouldn't exactly be blessed with out-and-out speed, but he's game, talented, and potentially a bit better than his current rating.

The Caped Crusader has won on both soft and good ground, whilst he probably has preference for the former, todays conditions shouldn't be overly quick. Originally, this son of Cape Cross was purchased for €100,000, but he showed little at 2 for Tom Tate and was subsequently sold for £2,200, which looks like an absolute bargain price. He's obviously bred to be quite good, and whilst he's yet to realize his full potential, he also has plenty of scope for improvement, having only run on 10 occasions, 6 of which have come in handicaps for Ollie Pears. He was unlucky to find trouble in-running on his final start as a 3 year old, but he was well supported to gain a third career win in the 18 runner handicap and I'm sure connections expect that he's more than up to winning off this mark. They got stuck in again on his seasonal reappearance just 11 days ago, which came at Thirsk. That was over a mile and a half, which is probably stretching his stamina a bit, although they didn't go much of a gallop and he paid for pulling hard through the early stages, despite looking to still hold a decent chance at the 2 pole. The handicapper has dropped him 1lb since, which isn't a whole pile, but leaves him looking well treated and in with a very good chance. He's also dropping in grade and looks the type who could excel carrying more weight against inferior rivals, which is the case here. I just hope something makes it a good test, as there seems to be a distinct lack of pace.

Ollie Pears hasn't had a winner for around 6 weeks, which on the face of it, doesn't look great. However, from his last 12 runners, 4 have finished 2nd and another came 3rd, having looked in with a huge chance of winning it. The stable are obviously in much better form than the bare results suggest, although it's nothing spectacular. Hopefully they'll break their duck here. Barry McHugh is the man in the driving seat here, and he gets on well with The Caped Crusader, having steered him to a win and a 2nd from his 4 outings so far. McHugh is a very talented jockey and boasts a record of 17 wins from 91 runners (19%, +£33 LSP) for this yard, with a further 17 finishing in the places. He has 1 win and 2 seconds from just 3 rides when teaming up with the yard at Haydock, so hopefully they'll add to that record with this fellow. Pears hasn't made this 220 mile journey too often (4 times in all) and this could be his best chance of a winner from his 3 runners. 10/1 is currently available and looks too big, I'd of thought 6's would be fair without pace assured, possibly half that if it was. This horse has a lot more to give and is fully entitled to come on for his recent outing on the back of a 7 month layoff, plus the trip was too far for him in a muddling affair. Plenty of dangers about, Hail Tiberius was the other who interested me at 12/1 but I'm not convinced that a drop in trip is what he wants. Ollie Pears could hold the trump card here and I'll play smallish each-way stakes on The Caped Crusader landing the spoils. He should go well if the ground doesn't prove too lively and if the pace is decent.

x PyRo · 19-05-2011 2:27am

2:50 Haydock - Whipphound - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365)

Only cost £1,000 as a yearling and probably not expected to be too good, but Whipphound shaped well last time out on his handicap debut over 6 furlongs at Chester. Whilst he only finished an 8 length 6th of 13, Mark Brisbourne's 3 year old was hampered shortly after coming out of the stalls and was under the pump towards the rear early on. That's not exactly ideal at Chester, nevermind when it's over a sprinting trip, so I think he did quite well to finish where he did. He responded quite well to pressure and ran on fairly well in the closing stages, which was encouraging on his first start for over 4 months. He also shaped as if the return to 7f may suit and this track could also play into his hands more than a Chester did.

Previously to that, Whipphound had modest form on the all-weather, landing a seller and a claimer, both over 6f at Wolverhampton. Whilst that doesn't sound too inspiring, the handicapper deemed those efforts worthy of a 12lb rise in his ratings, which would normally look very unfair. However, this horse does seem to have quite a bit to like about him, and may yet excel over this sort of trip. This won't be the easiest of races to win, with two potentially classy types lining up in the shape of Prince Of Burma and Youhavecontrol. Regardless of that pair, the rest look to be a fairly average bunch (although unexposed) and if the market leaders flop, I wouldn't be surprised to see a nice priced runner landing the spoils here. It's a 0-80 handicap for 3 year olds, and my selection is 3lbs below the ceiling, which would require a cracking effort to see him win this. I just thought his reappearance run was quite decent and he's fully entitled to come on for it, so 20/1 looks too big. The yard are also capable of pulling out big-priced shocks and Graham Gibbons, who rides this fellow today, has orchestrated a fair few of them.

Whipphound is Brisbourne's only runner of the day at Haydock, and he boasts a decent record around here, having had 19 wins from 242 runners, with the LSP being +£81. The strike rate isn't overly impressive (8%), but the level stakes profit is, mainly down to the prices that his winners have come in at. He's also had a further 35 runners finish in the places, so his track record ain't bad at all. Graham Gibbons also boasts a big LSP here, with it currently reading +£71, which comes on the back of 21 wins and 45 places from 235 rides. Also, none of his winners at Haydock have come from runners out of the Brisbourne yard. When they team up together, they also boast huge returns, having had 8 winners and 10 places from 59 runners, with a massive LSP of +£58, which is nearly a 100% ROI. All of this doesn't really matter, but it's interesting nonetheless and they're clearly a formidable partnership. It'll take a very good effort for this horse to win, but he's only run twice on turf, once over this trip (on all-weather) and despite looking exposed having had 8 runs, he is actually as unexposed under these conditions as most of the others. The slightly slower ground could also be more suitable than it was last time out. If he's ever going to defy this mark in a handicap, it could be now and 20/1 looks worthy of minimal each-way stakes. I'd imagine his price will be around 33/1 in the morning, but I'll take a cut at it now anyways.

x PyRo · 19-05-2011 3:21am

4:00 Haydock - South Cape - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill)

Not one to place too much faith in but with a solid pace likely, South Cape could be in his element here and win second time up in successive seasons. At 8 years old, there's probably not a whole lot more to come from this animal but he's exceptionally talented when everything falls his way and it could do here. His rating is the big worry, as he hasn't defied a mark this high since 2007, although he hadn't won over a mile until '09, and has done so twice since. Connections took the same path as last year and decided to run him in the Spring Cup at Newbury again, from a 7lb higher mark this time around. A 10 length 13 of 25 was all he could muster but it wasn't a half-bad reappearance run and this should prove much easier.

Whether he's up to winning a class 3 handicap off this mark is yet to be seen, but 14/1 looks to be a price worth taking a chance on and trainer Gary Moore is making a 460 mile round trip to run just the one horse, which could be a little hint in itself. He rarely ventures up towards Haydock and this is the first time that South Cape will run here in his 61 race career, but he seems at home on galloping tracks, having previously excelled around the likes of Goodwood and Chester. Tadhg O'Shea is the man in the saddle today, and whilst he wouldn't be a jockey I'd place a whole lot of faith in, he gets on well with this horse and has won on him 3 times from 11 rides. O'Shea has only ridden for Moore on 5 occasions and not since winning aboard this fellow at Nottingham in '09, so it looks slightly interesting that he's back on board today.

Another thing that's interesting is the reapplication of cheekpieces, which haven't been used on South Cape since October of '09. He only ran one very good race in them, from 3 attempts, but was well-supported on that occasion (with them on second time up). The yard certainly like to have a punt, and this could be a sign of intent once again. He holds an entry in the Royal Hunt Cup next month at Ascot, so that's probably his main target for the year. Although I'm not too sure whether he'll get in off his current rating (lowest last year was 91). If he does need a few lbs to get into the race, I'd imagine they'll be trying to go close here. The yard are damn tough to catch right but overall, this fellow looks interesting, even though this run could be used to have him primed and ready for next months outing (if he gets in). Regardless of that, I'll take a chance here, as the horse had a good year last year and shows no signs that age is catching up with him. He made a relatively encouraging reappearance and should get things run to suit here, on ground that's probably his optimum. The track should suit, the yard make a long journey to run him and the opposition don't look above him at all. Hopefully he'll go well, but I'll play it cautiously and just use minimal each-way stakes again. If he's primed and ready, 14's won't be around before the off. If there's zero money about for him, I'd expect that hopes of a place would be ambitious. It's a risky bet, but could be worth it if the positive signs are exactly that.

x PyRo · 19-05-2011 4:09am

5:35 Haydock - Pittodrie Star - 0.5pts e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365)

Not going into too much detail for this race but it may pay to have a small bet on Pittodrie Star from the Andrew Balding stable. This is quite a tough heat and there's plenty of potential improver's in the line up, but this 4 year old may come back a better animal for having had a few months off. He didn't appear in 2010 until the middle of August and ran 11 times between then and the middle of January. He won once, finished second twice and third on a couple of occasions also. Whilst the majority of his better runs have come on the all-weather, he's never raced beyond 1m 2f on turf, and only raced over that trip twice. There's quite possibly more to come and I think the break should do him the world of good. He didn't run too badly after a break last year either.

The pace is likely to be strong over this mile and a half trip. That's exactly what Pittodrie Star wants, as he often hinders his chances by pulling quite hard. If he can get some cover towards the rear of the field and settle himself down a bit, I've no doubts that he's up to defying a mark like this against decent opposition. The Andrew Balding yard are in good form, with 4 winners from their last 14 runners. They also make a near 400 mile round trip to attend this meeting, although there's 3 others runners representing the stable today. It's not easy to get them right either, but the return to a galloping track, which should provide a good stamina test for this animal, looks ideal and he could well outrun his odds of 22/1. David Probert takes the reins and gets on well with the horse, having ridden him on the majority of his racecourse outings. Probert is a top man for defying big prices and he has a great record for this yard, with 16% of the combinations runners tasting victory. Their record around here isn't too bad either, although it's nothing spectacular.

Of the rest, The Only Key was tempting me in again and owes me nothing having landed each-way spoils at 50/1 on the only occasion I backed her. I think she's interesting up in trip but may find this a notch above what she's capable of doing. 14/1 doesn't look a bad price about her though. Rock My World is very interesting and likely to make it into a very nice middle-distance animal. However, there's too many unknowns about her to go taking 6/1 and I'd rather oppose on the back of a 260 day layoff. She's also only made it to the racecourse on 2 occasions, once at 2 years old and once at 3. Could be anything, but won't be carrying my cash. Goldtrek might prefer a sharper test than this and may not be up to this level, but she's a strong traveling filly who warrants a lot of respect too. Shaped well on reappearance but may need quicker ground. Wouldn't discount her though. All in all, I'll stick with Andrew Balding to land the spoils with Pittodrie Star. He's fairly unexposed under these conditions, likely to come back better from the break and should be suited by this test. Connections seem to have backed him on a number of occasions and must think he's capable of more than a mark of 75. The 22/1 price-tag looks much too big and I'll have very small each-way stakes on him hitting the frame. 4 places are being paid also, which is a bonus (assuming nobody drops out). That's my final bet of the day and hopefully the elusive winner pops up somewhere.

POINTBREAK · 19-05-2011 11:50pm

I think this applies to you as well as pricewise. The relationship between losing streaks and the price of selections is very significant.

x PyRo · 20-05-2011 3:14am

Interesting stuff. Wouldn't be the first time I've gone on a long losing streak, but this is nearly doubling what I've done before. Tough to take, but them's the breaks. Just got to change it now.

The Caped Crusader landed each-way spoils after finishing 4th in his race. He was well supported and eventually went off at 6/1, but proved to be very disappointing. I think the ground may have been against him on the day, but he's well handicapped and worth another go next time out, depending on the price. Got a few quid back from that bet at least.

Whipphound showed plenty of early dash to race handily on his step up to 7f. However, he didn't really see it out too well and was short of room coming into the closing stages, although he was beaten then. He may be a bit high in the weights, so I'll leave him be now.

South Cape was friendless in the market and ran accordingly. He was never given a chance of getting involved, and I'll be on him next time out, if the cheekpieces are still on.

Pittodrie Star ran a cracking race to finish 4th also, but with one runner pulled out during the day, the place terms dropped from 4 to 3. To make it worse, he went off at 33/1 and it would of been enough to take me into profit on the day. Fairly annoying. He's a horse to keep on the side of for the future though, and could end up making the grade in staying handicaps.

Small loss of -2.75pts on the day.

No bets for Friday. Poor stuff all round. Flowing Cape is out again though (3:40 Bath, 4/1 at the moment). I think he has a good chance, but a day without a bet will do no harm.

x PyRo · 21-05-2011 12:43am

Brilliant days racing ahead, and loads of bets! Hopefully today's the day.

2:00 Haydock - Brown Panther - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

The price is fairly skinny for this one but Brown Panther could be a horse going places and a mark of 81 should not inconvenience him one little bit. The one worry would be the potential of the opposition, as many similarly unexposed types line up for this 3 year old handicap, but Tom Dascombe's charge could prove to be the best of them. Previously entered for the Derby, he had one run at 2, which was on the all-weather around Southwell over 7 furlongs. That was at the back end of the year (November) and this home-bred colt has obviously taken some time to come to hand, but he made a nice start to score over a trip that would be considered a long way shy of his optimum. Brown Panther ran out a 1 length winner, despite running green and being forced wide coming for home. He showed a nice, game attitude to win going away, and whilst the form is not relevant here, there was plenty to like about they way he went about business.

That effort was deemed good enough to give Brown Panther an opening handicap of 73. Dascombe readied him for another stint on the all-weather, this time over 1m 3f, which looked sure to suit. Connections also backed him throughout the day, but he was easier on course having been quite green in the paddock. In the race, he pulled quite hard early on, then failed to make any sort of headway under pressure, eventually finishing in 4th place. It wasn't a bad effort on the back of a break and I'm not convinced that the polytrack surface was ideal. He reappeared 2 weeks later, this time over 1m 4½f at Chester, a track I didn't think would be ideal for an out-and-out galloper, which he looks to be. However, despite having raced keenly again, he managed to get his head in-front in the final strides of this decent handicap, beating some potentially useful sorts. He had looked beaten coming into the closing stages of the race, having failed to quicken when the 2nd & 3rd horse scooted clear, but he eventually found his stride and came home very strongly to win by a neck.

Brown Panther is now hit with an 8lb rise in the weights, but he's clearly very talented and open to a lot more progression. The track and the slightly slower ground are taken to bring out even further improvement, and the long home straight seems to be exactly what he's looking for. He seems to be the type to improve with his racing and I think he could end up rated a lot higher than his current mark of 81. Tom Dascombe's yard have taken a while to get going, but they are hitting full stride now, with no fewer than 4 winners in the past 2 days (from 7 runners). 5 of their last 10 runners at this course have tasted success, and this is the only one they're bringing down today. The Dascombe/Kingscote combination have a 25% strike-rate here at Haydock and with both in such good form, I think they can increase that today. Richard Kingscote is also coming down for just this ride, before heading off to Newbury.

Another interesting and pointless thing is that in the Manor House Stables "5 to follow" competition, Brown Panther is selected by owner Michael Owen and his jockey Richard Kingscote. It doesn't mean a whole pile, but this horse is clearly well thought of and there's sure to be a lot more to come. I've actually taken 4/1, but the price changed mid write-up, so for the purposes of posting it, I'm using 7/2. I think he'd be entitled to be even shorter again (circa-2/1) and I'll play medium stakes on him making it 3 wins from 4 attempts. There's more to come from this big, strong, long-striding animal and I think he can improve again to land this. Of the rest, Wayward Glance was the other who caught my eye and could give Dascombe's charge the most to think about. Hopefully he won't!

x PyRo · 21-05-2011 2:26am

2:30 Haydock - Indian Jack - 0.5pts e/w @ 25/1 (WillHill)

Wide-open 17 runner handicap in which claims can be easily made for many, but Indian Jack could hold a lively chance of grabbing a place, of which there is 4 available as it stands. Alan Bailey's 3 year old is yet to prove his worth on turf, plus he's dealt the toughest draw of the lot. However, his hat-trick on wins on the all-weather at Kempton gave plenty of cause for optimism, having won a maiden, before landing handicaps off marks of 79 & 85. They were all typical AW race, in which the early pace was sedate before it lifted markedly as they turned for home, and despite this fellow looking like he was going nowhere on a couple of those outings, he responded well for pressure and eventually got on top.

The best of his runs came last month where he returned to a mile for the first time since finishing 2nd in a heavy ground maiden at Nottingham. The pace was very slow early on and Kieren Fallon nearly stole the race from the front on Tasfeya, only to be denied by a late run from Luke Morris aboard my selection for todays race, who took an age to pick up. It's quite understandable that it took him so long to get going in a race run like that, and with the pace virtually assured here, Indian Jack should have things much more to suit. He's another one who will enjoy the long run in, and the ground should also be in his favour. He disappointed last time out on rain softened ground at Sandown (track possibly didn't suit either?), finishing well adrift of the leaders, but he's surely worth another chance here.

Alan Bailey seems to have his yard in good form of late, although they're getting more places than winners, but he's sure to have this fellow readied in an attempt to land the £37,386 pot for the winner here. He's also making a 360 mile round trip to run just 2 runners, the other being a virtual no-hoper. It's also interesting to see that Luke Morris isn't on board here (on board last 5 outings), with Barry McHugh riding for this yard for the first time since '08 (only had 3 rides). McHugh is a very talented jockey and comes here for just 1 ride, before heading over to Chester for 3 rides, the first of which is 1½ hours after this one. It's hardly significant or anything, but looks slightly interesting, even though the tracks aren't too far away from each other. He only has 1 win from his last 20 rides, but a further 8 have placed, so he's not going too badly of late. His record on track isn't too bad either, with nearly half of his 33 rides making the frame at least, although only 3 of them have won.

Regardless of all of that, Indian Jack looks overpriced here and looks priced based on a single disappointing performance, which looks harsh considering things may have been against him. He'll have a tough job overcoming the draw here, but the pace should be good, the ground will suit and the track should be right up his alley. 25/1 seems generous to me and I'll have a minimal each-way bet on him. Cutting down my stakes in this sort of race until I catch one of them right, so this would normally be a higher stakes selection if my inability to pick a winner wasn't such a worry. However, this horse could eventually be capable of defying a mark in the 90's, so he'll be worth siding with until he lands the spoils on turf, which may not be too far away.

x PyRo · 21-05-2011 4:03am

3:00 Haydock - Stone Of Folca - 0.5pts e/w @ 20/1 (Betfred)

It will take an almighty effort for a 3 year old to win this Group 2 against older horses, but Stone Of Folca is an animal I really expect to come of age this season. Highly tried as a juvenile, John Best's charge failed to get his head in-front but made some gallant attempts at doing so, most notably when 4th in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes and when finishing a ¼ length 2nd to Zebedee in the Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood. He looked the most likely winner coming to the closing stages in those races, but possibly paid for his tendencies to take a keen hold mid run, although in the Group 2 race he just hit the front too soon. However, he's such a strong traveler that you'd have to think todays likely pace is going to suit, as it should be blistering given the inclusion of so many front-runners.

It was a similar scenario, pace-wise, when Stone Of Folca tackled Group 1 company against his elders for the first time on his final start of 2010. I actually backed him that day, in the Nunthorpe, expecting that the rapid pace and weight allowance for age would of given him a huge chance. He was beaten before halfway, but certainly didn't run up to his level of form and the excuses were that he was possibly over the top by the time of that race, in August. I've no idea how true that is, but he should definitely make into a lovely 3 year old, once his quirks are a thing of the past. He doesn't seem to like going to the racecourse and gets all buzzy beforehand, especially in the paddock, where he's acted up on numerous occasions.

On his seasonal reappearance at Folkstone, it was a similar story as Stone Of Folca was reluctant to post and raced keenly once again. He scored by ½ a length to a rival rated 36lb inferior, but was value for much more than the winning margin, thanks to a cheeky ride from Luke Morris. That form would rate him as a low-level handicapper and is nothing worthy of getting involved here, but it was good to see him get his head in-front regardless. John Best has since brought him to a couple of race meetings since in an attempt to calm him down, and it has apparently worked. If he doesn't act up today and appreciates the pace as much as I expect him to, he could cash in if some of the market leaders fail to run to their full potential. Frederik Tylicki also takes the ride on him for the first time and he's a classy jockey. Hopefully he'll prove a positive to this animal, who needs confident, intelligent handling.

Overdose is going to be the favourite bar a massive punt on something else, but I know very little about the "Budapest Bullet" and I'd rather just oppose him, as there's a fair chance he's just priced up on his reputation alone. He'll be interesting to see in action now that he's facing some decent rivals. 2/1 looks very skinny, especially considering the horse who finished 2nd to him last time out was having his first ever run, and the 3rd was a previous all-weather handicap winner in France, over 7 furlongs too. Not one for me anyways. Big things are expected of Kingsgate Native this year, and Sir Michael Stoute's 5 year old landed this race last year. His form rather tailed off after that and although he's entitled to be involved once again, I'm not convinced that running behind a blistering pace is exactly what he wants. 5/1 looks too short. Many others could have a squeak, but with so much potential pace, it may pay to side with the John Best trained Stone Of Folca, who travels well, and will eventually follow through with his threats to land a Group race. Hopefully it's today, and 20/1 looks to be a price worthy of a minimal each-way bet. That price could get bigger tomorrow also, so it may be worth holding off on it until then, if anyone's having a bet of course. It'll be tough for a 3 year old to win this, but he gets an 8lb allowance, has conditions to suit and horses his age have landed this race before.

x PyRo · 21-05-2011 4:50am

3:40 York - Mon Brav - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Boylesports)

Flying for new yard, having landed handicaps off marks of 75 (5f) and 81 (6f) since leaving Declan Carroll to join the in-form Brian Ellison stable. Whilst it would look a tough task to see Mon Brav notch up his hat-trick in a class 2 0-105 handicap, he's clearly in the form of his life and may be capable of defying a mark of 85. He had plenty of outings at 3, 13 in total, but his career best effort was victory in a 5 runner handicap off a mark of 78, so he's already surpassed what he achieved for his former trainer in just 2 runs for his new yard.

He's also won over 6f for the first time, and although he now steps back to the bare minimum, the likely good pace should help see him in a good light. The removal of his usual headgear has also contributed to the recent surge in form and Mon Brav no looks a lot more straightforward than previously. It's typical of sprinters to take off and improve rapidly in a short space of time, so hopefully it's more of the same for this lively animal. He's still only 4 years old, so it's not beyond him by any means.

Brian Ellison seems to have his stable in fine order of late, with 5 winners (and 5 places) in the past fortnight, from 27 runners. His record at the track isn't great, with just 6% of his 130 runners winning, but he's booked Paul Pickard to ride, and he's 2 from 6 over C&D, with the winners coming 7/1 & 16/1. He takes off a handy 3lbs to leave Mon Brav carrying just 8st 5lbs, in a race that low-weighted runners have done well in the past 10 years (8/10 carried 8st 12lbs or less). 9 of the last 10 winners have been aged 4 or 5, so he also fits into that category, although so do many of the rest.

Mon Brav is drawn down the middle in stall 10, which shouldn't pose any worries, and with most of the pace being drawn low, he should be able to get over to keep close enough order on them. There's plenty of potentially good horses lining up, with the likes of Humidor, Doctor Parks and possibly even Taajub looking like they'd be able to get involved. Claims could be made for many more too, possibly the whole field, but Mon Brav is an improved horse and could be capable of defying a 4lb rise despite lining up in a much tougher race. He ran OK over C&D as a 2 year old, but won over C&D last year, so the track holds no fears, although he bombed out on his 2 most recent outings here (has reasonable excuses). I think he'll run a good race and I'll play small each-way stakes again. Hopefully his winning streak won't end here.

x PyRo · 21-05-2011 5:24am

2:45 Goodwood - Beachfire - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

I really don't like backing short prices, but Beachfire was absolutely crying out for a step up in trip, which he now gets and I feel it makes him worthy of being shorter than he's currently priced. John Gosden's 4 year old certainly has a mind of his own and often needs rousting along quite early in his races, but there's no doubting his talent, nor his strike-rate in handicaps, which reads 3 wins and 2 places from 6 outings. He's progressed a full 18lbs in the past year and I think there could be a lot more to come in 2011, as I expect he'll be rated in the 100's and tackling Group races before too long.

Beachfire has had 2 runs already this season, the first of which was over 1m 2f at Epsom. He only ran on past beaten horses in the final stages, but the first time blinkers didn't seem to have any sort of effect on him, although the track was seemingly against him that day. It wasn't a bad pipe-opener though and he duly stepped up on that form when finishing 2nd to Jutland at Chester, a race in which I opposed him based on track and distance, although my selection that day finished 6th of 8. John Gosden's charge finished fast as usual, but he was never going the pace to catch the winner over a trip that I expect to be on the short side, with his class being the only reason he's landed 3 handicaps and a maiden over 10f or less. He's not even really bred to appreciate too much further than a mile, he's just a very odd horse!

The return to a track with a longer run-in is sure to suit Beachfire, and he's won here over 1m 2f, when landing a 15 runner handicap off a 7lb lower mark. He just got up in the last strides having been ridden early on, beating a very useful field. The move to sweep him wide into the center of the track and allow him to make his move from there paid dividends, and although the field isn't quite as big today, he could have the opportunity to use similar tactics once again. William Buick will be made to earn his fee, but this horse should take a lot of beating here. The opposition don't worry me, more so the lack of any obvious pace, even though there's a few potential pace angles, but nothing set in stone. Hopefully one of the Johnston horses will blast off in-front and make it a true test, which my selection would relish.

Harlestone Times is the only blatantly obvious danger, as he's similarly lightly-raced and progressive. He's also a course winner but I don't think he's as talented as John Gosden's colt, so the price-tag of 5/2 is not one bit appealing to me. I'm sure he'll run his race and probably a good one at that, but he's up 6lbs for finishing 2nd (placed 3rd) last time out, and the form's been franked. He's just not a fair 5/2 shot in my opinion and I'm happy to take him on. Beachfire represents an in-form stable, he's talented, suited by conditions and has a lot more to offer this game. The step up in trip is taken to bring out big improvement in him and if he's on a going day, he should prove very tough to beat. I think he should be around the 2/1 mark, so 7/2 is worthy of a medium sized bet. I'd go in bigger if it wasn't for his quirks and the lack of obvious pace, but he should go well regardless.

naughto · 21-05-2011 2:18pm

2:00 Haydock - Brown Panther - 3pts @ 7/2 (Bet365)

he won it great start to the day

x PyRo · 22-05-2011 4:38am

Finally managed to end my horrific losing streak, at the 49th attempt (awful). Brown Panther, well-backed (went off 2/1, backed at 7/2) in his attempt to gain another scalp at handicap level, showed a wonderful turn of foot to defy his 8lb rise for that Chester win last time out. He traveled supremely well, but met trouble in-running coming to the concluding stages. In the end, it didn't matter, as he ran on well to score in a most convincing manner. I thought he'd be capable of running in Group races at some stage, but now I'm absolutely convinced. Holding him up seemed to work a treat and this horse is bound to be rated 100+ by the end of the season. Really impressed with his performance.

Indian Jack was disappointing, although he was only a small stakes selection. He missed the break, but got a nice position along the rail, made headway 3 out, then faded under pressure. He didn't stride out very well on the ground (looked very awkward under pressure) and possibly it was against him, although I thought he looked like a quick ground horse before this (even though breeding suggests otherwise). It'll be interesting to see where he goes next, as this certainly wasn't a true running of his abilities. He's going into the notebook for the end-of-season handicaps anyways.

Beachfire was next up, over at Goodwood. He was well-supported in an attempt to make a winning start over 1m 4f, but he proved to be disappointing again. He was slowly away, as is usually the case with him, and pushed along in rear early on. That didn't set off panic stations, as I thought that would probably happen, but having made good progress after they turned for home, he proved to be one-paced inside the last couple of furlongs. I was convinced the step up in trip was ideal and maybe it wasn't. He's worth another crack at it though, but his quirks put me off backing him again. If he didn't have them, Group races would be easily achievable in my opinion.

It was back to Haydock for the Temple Stakes, where I had backed Stone Of Folca. He ran an alright race to finish 9th, but never looked like getting involved. There's races to be won with him, I just don't think he'll be landing any G1's against his elders for the time being. Should eventually make the grade though, as he has loads and loads of speed. Overdose was fairly poor and readily opposing him was one of the very few things I got right about that race.

Over at York, Mon Brav ran a decent race to finish 9th. I think he showed enough to be considered in with a big shout of landing a similar handicap, although it'll probably be over 6f. He traveled well until the final couple of furlongs and got slightly outpaced, before keeping up the gallop all the way to the line. Paul Pickard reported that the saddle slipped during the race, which is probably why he seemed to allow the horse to come home at his own pace. He remains a horse to keep on the right side and I expect him to win again soon.

+3.50pts on the day. Nothing much, but it's nice to finally get a winner. I'm going to stick with the plan of picking the odd shorter priced runner (anywhere as low as 3/1), just to try and increase the amount of winners I'm having, for confidence if nothing else.

Stat Attack -

Bank - 197.05pts (+97.05pts)

2011 Flat Stats : -16.74pts

Bets - 75
Wins - 4
Placed - 22
Win SR - 5.3%
Staked - 200.00pts
Returned - 183.26pts
ROI - -8.3%

Not going well, but I'm actually happy enough with that, considering I've only dropped about 40 points having failed to back a winner in nearly 50 selections, staking around 150 points in the meantime. Things will pick up soon I hope, just need to convert some of those places into winners. 4 winners from 75 bets is horrific, but an additional 22 places is just annoying. Even 5 of them winning would of made a huge difference to the records. Ah well, on we go.

No bets Sunday.

PyRo's Horse Bets.

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