PyRo's Horse Bets.

OutlawPete · 22-05-2011 5:09am

Congrats on Brown Panther X, early doors flat season is tough for the best of form readers like yourself, lots of horses needing a couple of runs before showing their true ability or even been asked to show their true ability

I've always believed the flat season is really all about June, July and August, when it comes to the UK & Ireland anyway.

Here's a t-shirt to get yourself now, for luck

x PyRo · 22-05-2011 5:50am

Cheers Pete, nice shirt but I'll just have a keg next Saturday in worship of the great Brown Panther! I'm actually heading over the Haydock for next Saturday's card, which should be alright. Can't wait to be honest. :pac:

The main problem with this year has been my obsession with trying to find big priced winners, and opposing the blatantly obvious (although it's very rare that I back an outsider in a race that the favourite wins, I usually just pick the wrong outsider!).

60 of my 75 bets have been double figure prices. Just the 1 has won, 16 placed. It's not even funny how many have placed, all at very nice prices too.

15 bets at single figures, 3 winners (7/2, 9/2, 13/2) and 6 places.

I think it's 85% of winners come from the top 6 in the betting. I'll be concentrating on finding roughly half of my bets in and around the top 6 (I clearly do better when searching for shorter priced runners, rather than searching for reasons to oppose), with the rest being the usual outsiders. It should help keep the odd winner coming in and the confidence high, which will also help when it comes to backing the outsiders too.

It's a fairly simplistic change of plan, but it worked a treat last year and for some reason I got into a constant habit of finding numerous reasons to oppose horses who actually have great chances (bad habit and an obsession with fancy priced winners). I wouldn't of backed Black Panther usually, even though he obviously had huge scope for improvement on a track like this and in general.

Things are going to pick up soon, I can feel it!

:pac:

x PyRo · 24-05-2011 3:04am

3:40 Ripon - Prince Of Dance - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Bet365)

I'm going to take another chance on Tom Tate managing to bring Prince Of Dance back to form, as this one-time 108 rated 5 year old has a lot of talent, and shaped as if he retained enough of his ability when finishing 6th of 20 over C&D last time out. That was off a 2lb higher mark, and he was poorly drawn to attack that day, plus the fact that he only faces 10 rivals today could be another positive. Whilst it wasn't an awe-inspiring run by any means, it was a big step up on his first 2 outings for this yard, in which he was a long way off the pace.

As a 3 year old (unraced at 2), Prince Of Dance was unbeaten for Tom Dascombe, winning a maiden in very taking fashion, before landing a 15 runner handicap (quite cosily) off a mark of 94 on just his second career outing, which is no easy task. Connections then stepped him up to Listed level, where he showed an exceptional attitude to hold off previous Group 2 winner Shaweel and future Group 3 winner Bushman, all despite pulling like a train in the opening stages. The common link between his winning performances is ground that isn't too quick, and with rain a possibility on the already watered ground, conditions may be suitable enough for this gelding. It won't be any worse than good, but off this mark, he's surely capable of getting involved.

Last time out, Prince Of Dance finished 6¼ lengths off the pace (in 6th), with the first two re-opposing here. He's now 4lbs better off with David Barron's (formerly of Tom Tate) Suits Me (2nd) and 9lbs better with the winner of the race, Dandy Nicholls' vastly improved Snow Bay. The weight differential alone would entitle my selection to finish a lot closer to that pairing, but with the ground being very lively that day, and the early pace being quite sedate, I don't think Prince Of Dance has optimum conditions. Today, he should get a good pace to run at, and slower ground, so the fact that he's double the price of those re-opposing is quite appealing to me. There's a few other good animals to contend with today, but I still feel 14/1 is underestimating this horses chances of getting into the money.

He showed signs of re-finding that previously impressive attitude last time out, as despite being niggled when the race began to turn into a sprint, Graham Gibbons' mount kept going all the way to the line, with a lack of a rapid turn of foot being his downfall. With a stronger pace to run at, he may not need such an instant reaction to the tempo quickening, plus the ground should certainly help. Prince Of Dance could easily bounce back to his old self, but there was some money about for him last time out and Tate was previously confident of helping the animal get back to his former glory, as he really struggled as a 4 year old (Dascombe's yard were going through a terrible time of it).

His trainer, Tom Tate, has an exceptional record around Ripon, with a 24% strike-rate from 102 runners and a 120% ROI. He also rarely books Graham Gibbons, who is one of the top jockeys at this course. He's one of my favourite jockeys and has ridden this fellow on a couple of occasions, including last time out, so hopefully it's third time lucky for this partnership. This should prove to be a tough contest to win, with the progressive Lord Aeryn and Luca Cumani's potential improver Saint Pierre lining up, but I feel Tom Tate's charge is worth taking a small each-way chance on. If the heavens opened, 5/1 would be a fair price about him. As it stands, I thought he'd be around 8/1, so 14's are certainly acceptable. With the pace being strong, fitness likely to have improved, a better effort last time out and a positive jockey booking, Prince Of Dance, a previous Group 1 competitor, could get involved in the shake-up. He's a better animal than his rating suggests, and he'll bounce back to form at some stage this year, hopefully today.

x PyRo · 25-05-2011 2:45am

Very disappointing effort from Prince Of Dance. He was beaten a long way out, but was well-supported before the off, so it seems that he was fancied to run a lot better than that. I still think he's worth pursuing for a while yet and it'll be interesting to see how the handicapper reacts to that run. He should get another few lbs off the back, which pretty much assures that I'll have a few quid on next time out too.

-2pts on Tuesday.

3:15 Ayr - Duchess Dora - 3pts @ 4/1 (WillHill)

Interesting handicap here, with claims there to be made for the majority of the field if you delve deep enough. However, I'm going to side with Duchess Dora again, who I've backed on both of her previous outings this year. She looks exceptionally well-handicapped on her best form and can take advantage of some leniency from the handicapper, who now has her rated a full 9lbs lower than her handicap success first time out last season. She's was bred to be a good 2 year old, and that she was, landing a maiden and 2 nurseries off marks of 80 & 87. She disappointed at Listed level next twice, with valid excuses for the second run (non-stayer over 6, but had held every chance).

Her handicap mark of 93 looked to make things tough for her on her opening run as a 3 year old, but this attractive looking filly defied odds of 14/1 to finish a short head in-front of Fratellino, who's a very talented colt, last seen finishing 2nd in a big 24 runner handicap at Newmarket (off 90). My selection traveled so well over the minimum trip at Beverley (where she goes well) that day and cruised into contention just over a furlong from home, but she hit the front a bit too early and began to idle, giving the second placed horse a chance to come back into contention. However, she held on in a very game fashion and let the then 5lb claimer, Ian Brennan, off the hook for failing to hold on to her for longer, even though it wasn't a bad ride but she had shown similar tendencies before.

Duchess Dora failed to get her head in-front throughout the rest of her 3 year old campaign, but she still ran some very good races and her next 5 races consisted of form reading ; 4-3-4-4-3, never beaten further than 2¼ lengths, including a tilt at Listed level, where she pulled too hard early on but still managed a staying-on 1¼l 4th. She had 4 more starts from September onwards, but disappointed in all bar one and that was on her return to an unconventional track. She has run well here in the past when rated 9lbs higher and I see no obvious reason why she can't improve on her 3rd placed effort that day, even though some of the opposition are better than what she faced then. The ground today is interesting, as she's done most of her racing on good or better, but has a couple of decent soft ground efforts to her name, including over C&D. It'll be fairly testing today, but she should handle it without problem.

Duchess Dora was a well-backed 7/1 shot (from 16's) in a 17 runner race (had poor draw) at her beloved Beverley on seasonal reappearance. She traveled strongly but got hampered in the run-in, which led to Paul Hanagan giving her an easy time of it inside the closing stages, as she couldn't of won anyways. That run was expected to bring her on a fair bit and she was, once again, heavily backed last time out over the minimum trip at York. I also picked her out that day, and possibly jinxed her in the process! The draw wasn't overly kind and she got too much daylight on the outside of the field, but stuck to the task fairly well to come home in 6th place. Those drawn quite low did not fare well that day and she was well ahead of anything from the lower third of the draw. With those 2 runs, she should be spot on fitness wise, although given the amount of money last twice, I don't think there could be any worry with that anyways. Her connections certainly like a punt, and hopefully they'll be after monies lost here, as although her price isn't huge by any means, it's quite a bit bigger than I thought would be fair. I'd mark her down as a 2/1 shot here (possibly worthy of being shorter), as I don't think there's a rival who would hold a candle to her if she's in tip-top form and handles conditions.

John Quinn seems to have his yard in decent order, and despite a relatively quiet period in April, he's had 2 winners from his last 8 runners, with another 2 finishing in the places too. The yard make a 430 mile round trip to run Duchess Dora here, and this is their only runner at the meeting, with 4 others heading to Beverley (which is a lot closer to home). It could be significant or it could mean nothing, but Quinn doesn't venture this far north too often, and from 12 runners here last year, he had 3 winners and 6 places, with the other trio also hitting the frame (4th's and a 5th). His C&D record is 5 wins (23% SR) and 4 places from just 22 runners, with a 109% ROI. Paul Hanagan, who takes the reins for the second time on this animal, is the top jockey around Ayr, and he's sure to prove a plus to this speedy filly. His record when riding Quinn's sprinters over the minimum trip is quite impressive, with 20% of his 54 rides winning and the ROI being 72%. It's clearly a combination to take note of, even though it's not overly significant.

Duchess Dora will have form to turn around with Judge 'N Jury from their meeting at York last time out. They're currently battling it out for favouritism here today, but Ronald Harris' charge is winless since July of '09. He's clearly a tough horse to win with nowadays, having previously won no fewer than 7 times in 2007. He should enjoy conditions here today, and the track, but I feel he'll be very vulnerable towards the head of affairs. I think the form can be overturned, as my selection didn't have things to suit last time out and does so here. 7/2 for Judge 'N Jury is skinny, and although he has fairly solid claims, I'd much rather take his battle-hardened 7 year old legs on with a younger horse. Strike Up The Band is another aging animal who hasn't landed the spoils since August of '08, and 5/1 looks too short despite a good run last time out. He's 4lbs higher for that recent 2nd at Thirsk, and although conditions suit him too, he ran awful here over C&D last year.

La Toreador has no issues with winning, but he's up 5lbs for beating the previously mentioned horse at Thirsk, and with most of his best form being on a sound surface, I couldn't have him. The Nifty Fox looks interesting in headgear and gets his ground today, but despite having won around here in '07, he seems better suited to the more unconventional track. His yard are out of form too. A few others could be given a squeak, but Duchess Dora is ready to win again and I'll take a medium sized chance on her doing so. She's got talent, should handle conditions, travels well, loves running off a strong pace (gets that here) and represents an interesting trainer/jockey combination. There's no reason why she shouldn't go well and 4/1 is too big. I'm very, very, very tempted to put maximum stakes on this one, but I'll play it cautiously for once, as John Quinn is a hard man to predict. However, he has a filly who seems ready to hit form, and she's capable of putting a winning streak together (given this lowly mark and how good I think she is) if she could get her head in-front. Hopefully she will.

That's my only bet today.

x PyRo · 26-05-2011 2:53am

Duchess Dora was supported again in her bid to get off the mark at the third attempt this season. However, things didn't work out for her and a close up 3rd place was all she could muster. It was a fine effort in a race where coming off the pace suited (DD was ridden handy), and she's sure to make her presence felt again soon. It's quite possible that she paid for racing a bit freely in the opening stages but she stuck to her task well and held every chance coming into the final furlong, but it wasn't enough as 2 runners came from off the pace to swamp her. She'll be interesting again next time out.

-3pts on the day.

I'm busy-busy getting things sorted out before I head off to England on Friday afternoon so the following write-ups will be shorter than usual. There's also a fair chance that I won't be posting anything (thank God says you!) for Friday, Saturday or Sunday, as I'll be track-side at Haydock! Can't wait.

Just the two today.

3:20 Ayr - Dasho - 2pts @ 11/1 (WillHill)

The market is finding it tough to split the leading trio here, with them all priced at 5/2. However, Dasho looks worth another try over this trip given his undoubted promise last time out. He's bred for further and switched to sprinting for the first time when tackling decent classified stakes at Haydock, in which he finished 4th. The 3 horses ahead of him do look quite decent and it was encouraging to see him rattling home despite meeting trouble in running from one of Jamie Spencer's "what am I doing?" rides. With a clear run, he would of placed at least, with a clear run and a stronger early pace, I'm sure he'd of troubled the potentially very decent winner. He does have quite a bit of early speed, but waiting tactics seemed to suit and I'm hoping they're used again here.

The pace is likely to be better and Dasho now encounters soft ground for the first time, something he shapes as if being suited by. He's from a small yard and I think he's priced up based on that, as they wouldn't be notorious for getting winners. However, this horse looks capable of landing a handicap off this mark of 77 and I've doubts over plenty of the rivals, bar my previous selection Captain Kolo, who will love conditions but I was hoping for 4/1 at least. He's a big horse and only ran 3 days ago, so how he will be after such a short break is questionable, enough so to make 5/2 a price I couldn't take. Mr Optimistic looks like a fast ground horse, as does Thirteen Shivers, so the 5/2 about them isn't appealing either, even though they could win it. None of the others float my boat so I'll have a small/medium win bet on Dasho landing the spoils, as he's clearly talented and has a jockey on board that I'm quite fond of. The track should also be right up his street and the yard make an 800 mile round trip from Epsom to run just 2 horses. They had a decent 4th place from their only runner here yesterday. Hopefully this son of Dubawi (a sire I've loads of time for) will run well.

6:00 Sandown - Rock The Stars - 3pts @ 6/1 (VC)

Disappointed as favourite last time out but Rock The Stars has more than enough to like about him in a contest like this and I expect a much better performance here. It's quite possible that Ffos Las just wasn't exactly to his liking (steady early gallop no help either) and the return to a place like Sandown is taken to help him get off the mark for the first time since landing his opening 2 handicaps in June last year. Both of those wins were over a mile, the latter being at a similarly testing track, and although todays trip is 2f longer, he has placed on 4 of his 6 attempts at this trip, staying on well nearly every time. It's his first visit to Sandown, but the uphill finish will definitely help him and with the strong handling of Ryan Moore, I think he's going to get involved in the finish here.

The John Hills yard haven't had too many winners of late, but their runners seem in decent order and with Rock The Stars having 2 recent runs under his belt, he's sure to be in good order here. The booking of Ryan Moore is most certainly a positive one, and he has yielded good results for them in the past, with 7 wins and 12 places from just 44 rides on the flat (16% SR, 49% ROI). It seems to be a sign of intent and the horse was well-supported last time out, so he's bound to be showing something good at home. The pace isn't assured, and the horse would like a good gallop to be at his best, but the price makes up for that (and he has run well in muddling races before). I think he has enough good form to be around the 3/1 mark, with his recent outing being the only reason he's so big this time around. The ground is grand, the track is perfect, the jockey booking is strong and the opposition don't look to be anything insurmountable. The current favourite is the only horse I'd be very worried about, as he looked quite decent last time out. However, he has a 7lb rise in the weights to contend with and strays away from the track where he goes best, so I'll avoid at the prices. Rock The Stars is worth taking a chance on and I'll play medium stakes on him doing the business. I don't expect 6's to be about for too long.

CriticEyes · 26-05-2011 6:25pm

Cheers Pyro. Put a small single on the 1st and 2nd one and a small double. When the 1st one didn't come in i put a bit more on the 2nd one. Had a good feeling about it. Savage shout. Thanks again. Good luck with the rest of your picks in the future.

x PyRo · 26-05-2011 6:51pm

Cheers for the comment CE, hopefully that's a sign of things to come now. Had some horrific form myself but feeling confident again. It's so much easier when things click a bit more often.

Just need to add some consistency now.

Dasho was well supported in his bid to get off the mark over sprint trips, eventually halving in price to go off at 11/2. A combination of pulling much too hard and racing into the wind didn't help matters. He faded fairly tamely having been still in the mix just over a furlong from home. Disappointing but he should be a good price next time out, so I won't be giving up just yet. Into the notebook he goes. The favourite was very disappointing and I would of backed him if it wasn't for the short gap between races. Dodged a bullet there but ran into another one anyways.

Rock The Stars finally came good over 1m 2f, and was a well-backed 7/2 favourite. I was full sure that he was going to be beaten when he came under pressure (with many more going far better) but the steep uphill finish brought out the best in him, and he won by 4½ lengths, going away at the finish. There's more races to be won with him and surely a step up in trip wouldn't go astray, especially if it was around this course again. Great ride by Ryan Moore (as all winning rides are!) and a tidy return from my 3pt @ 6/1 bet. Hopefully there's more of them to come.

+16.00pts on the day. That's the first really profitable day I've had this flat season and brings the overall loss back to just 5pts (It's 40pts at SP!). Things will hopefully pick up now and there'll be less losers posted!

thesandeman · 26-05-2011 11:50pm

Nice one Pyro.
Hopefully that bank will start you off across the water B-)

argosy2006 · 27-05-2011 12:23am

Great bet,Backed well
Great 3 pointer ,Won well

Derek! · 27-05-2011 12:26am

I'm delighted for you Pyro well done

and for anyone who got on it

x PyRo · 27-05-2011 1:14am

Cheers lads, very, very happy with that one.

Think I've cracked where I've been going wrong for so long, including on the NH scene.

It's funny as when I got to know more, I got significantly worse, just because I was putting too much emphasis on certain aspects which I had "uncovered". Now I've kind of (still need to tweak them) figured them out in terms of importance, which makes it much easier to sort out things in my head! Less complications.

Hopefully that'll change now and I might get some form back soon. Amazed that I'm only 5 points down despite having such a bad strike-rate. Shows how much of the outsiders were finishing in the places, but never winning, bar Taurus Twins.

Roll on the rest of the season!

Backing Watch Amigo (1pt e/w, 16/1 with Hills) in the 4:05 at Newmarket, but no time to give much reasoning.

Quick run down - Ground likely to be ideal, he's 3/6 over trip, Swinburn yard in cracking form (6/28 last fortnight), interesting booking of Kieren Fallon for only second time ever, likely to improve (fitness wise) for recent AW run, dropping back to ideal trip after 3 failed attempts over a mile, suited by stiff 7 furlongs, lightly raced having only had 10 starts, looked highly progressive previous to being stepped up in trip, should get ran run to suit and has plenty of form to assume that 85 is not an insurmountable task.

This is a tough race but there's no doubting that he's capable of landing a class 3 event, especially in a race where he should get plenty of cover. He's got a decent cruising speed, finds for pressure and has a nice turn of foot. Pretty much everything that you want in a big field handicap. Has run well at the track over a mile too, although that stretched him, so 7f here should be ideal. He's worth a small e/w bet.

I'll be back on Sunday. Doubt I'll have any net access over the weekend.

x PyRo · 31-05-2011 12:35am

Back in action now.

Watch Amigo was subject to a big gamble on Friday, eventually going off at 5/1 having been 16's the night before. He disappointed and never got involved (9th in the end) but remains one to keep on the right side of. Connections clearly think a mark in the mid-eighties is not beyond him and so do I, so it'll be interesting to see where he goes next time out. Hopefully he'll be a decent price though.

3:15 Leicester - Azameera - 2pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

Clive Cox has a potentially very decent filly in the form of Azameera, who is sure to be better than her current rating of 78. However, she's had her problems since landing a hot-maiden at Salisbury last September, in which 7 of the other 16 runners have won since. I wouldn't be too keen on maiden form at all but the way she won it was in the style of a very nice horse and she's had excuses on her subsequent 2 runs, so she looks to be one to keep on the right side of for the moment.

That debut win was over 7f at Salisbury, where this 65,000gns purchase defied odds of 33/1 to run out a comfortable 1¼ length winner, beating John Gosden's very well-bred Aneedah, who is now a 97 rated filly. That was a race run at a modest gallop and racing handy paid dividends. Adam Kirby (on board again today) had his mount well positioned throughout and was niggling away at her a few furlongs out, but when push came to shove, she responded in the manner of a very nice filly and found plenty for pressure, before going away in the closing stages. It may have been that the race turning into a sprint flattered her a lot, but connections think she's on a workable mark now and that once she sorts some mental flaws, she could be quite useful.

Azameera ran a couple of weeks after her maiden success, this time in a hot 2 year old nursery off this mark. She was well-supported in an attempt to make it 2 from 2, eventually going off as the 9/4 joint-favourite. Things didn't go her way and she missed the break before reportedly hanging left throughout. However, she returned home from Newmarket with a sore shoulder and that's probably the reason why she underperformed by a long way. A long break was then declared the order of the day and she didn't return to the racetrack until a couple of weeks ago. Yet again, Azameera was backed in an attempt to win a handicap, but there proved to be a few chinks in her armour and she faded into a 6½ length 7th of 11, having pulled hard early on and raced alone in the straight. 2f from home, she looked to hold every chance (hit 2.66 IR) but found very little afterwards, possibly down to racing so free beforehand.

With the early pace likely to be better here, and the track being more to her liking, I think we could see the real abilities of a filly that I expect to be capable of defying a mark in the mid-eighties before too long. She will have to grow up a fair bit though, but Clive Cox is a very good trainer and will eventually unlock the key. 3 horses (5th, 8th & 9th) have come out of that race and run recently, 2 of which have won. It's quite possible that given how things went in that race, the winners could keep coming out of those who failed to land a blow, and I'm hoping that trend will continue, although there's so much more to it. Azameera should get further in time, but looks more than capable of getting involved here if the cards fall her way. The pace should be good, the ground is likely to be suitable, the track is too her liking and the race is by no means too hot to handle.

Her trainer and jockey are in good form and Azameera is likely to strip fitter for that recent outing at Haydock. I don't think that was her true running at all and it's interesting that she's back out again just 12 days later. There are plenty of potential dangers and even some who are similarly unexposed, but this filly is filled with potential talent and looks a very backable price at 7/1. Small/medium win bet for me and I wouldn't be surprised to see this one go off a fair bit shorter than she is now, but I don't like backing fillies against the boys, so it's a more tentative (stake-wise) selection than it would be if she was against her own sex. There also seems to be plenty of overnight money for Ian Williams' handicap debutant Mr Dream Maker, who was 10's earlier with one firm and is now 7/2. That's a potentially interesting horse in his own right but I've missed the boat and think he's way too short now. Clive Cox's filly is the one to side with here and she's got plenty more to give in this sphere.

x PyRo · 31-05-2011 2:04am

4:45 Leicester - Equuleus Pictor - 3pts @ 13/2 (Boylesports)

This is likely to be very fast & furious and should help set things up for the often fast-finishing Equuleus Pictor. Whilst he doesn't win as often as he should, and is getting on in years, this 7 year old retains plenty of the his ability that saw him peak at 89 just under 2 years ago. That's a long time in racing but he's now running off a mark of 71 on the back of a couple of very encouraging efforts in races where things were against him. Today, there is plenty in his favour and his very long losing run can come to an end, at the 25th attempt (my lucky number!).

Equuleus Pictor only has one fairly significant problem here and that's the fact that all of his 6 career wins have been gained with cut in the ground, but that's according to the Racing Post. Timeform have the ground listed as "good" for 2 of his wins, so who's right is anyones guess. His 2 runs this year were on GF and he ran well both times, so with todays ground unlikely to be as fast, it may not be such a problem. The most recent effort, over 6f at Windsor, was very encouraging as he showed a good attitude to keep battling all the way to the line despite being beaten. 6f on fast ground is not one bit ideal, but the drop back to 5f on the back of a rapid gallop at a stiff track may be (not 100% sure the track is ideal), and I think this fellow could end his long losing streak under the expert handling of Cathy Gannon, who has ridden him last twice.

The John Spearing yard are yet to hit any sort of a gear yet, having failed to get a winner from any of his 23 runners on the flat this year. However, with many shaping as if in need of the run, Equuleus Pictor is sure to be nearing peak fitness. He's had another 43 days since his last run, but he's needed a warm up in the past and should be spot on now. He's well handicapped, well suited by the return to 5 furlongs and should love having a fast pace to run at, with Verinco, Cape Royal and many more capable of setting blistering fractions from the get-go. Leicester is not a track sure to suit him though and it is a risk, but I consider the price much too big, therefore making it a risk worth taking. More rain is also a possibility and if the heavens opened, I'll be left with 13/2 about a horse who should be around the 2/1 mark. Cathy Gannon rides the track exceptionally well and John Spearing has a decent record around here. He's also a very good trainer of sprinters and will have this fellow back in the winners enclosure before too long. This is an open contest, but I think the price is much too generous and I'll take a chance on this speedy 7 year old gaining career win number 7. Medium stakes as I think he should be the favourite.

x PyRo · 31-05-2011 2:49am

3:30 Redcar - Antoniola - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)

Out of form and looking out of any ability, but Antoniola has the ability to go close here if on a going day. Tim Easterby's 4 year old gelding has proved to be disappointing in the main and hasn't won since his juvenile days, but he ran a few good races as a 3 year old off much higher marks. He's been very disappointing so far this year, having failed to land a blow on all 4 of his outings and being unable to finish within 12 lengths of the winner in any of them. However, Easterby's runners who seem out of form have a tendency to bounce back at some stage, and with the eye-shield/blinker combination on for the third time in a row, it may have the desired effect (or something could be planned!). I quite like backing horses after they've had a couple of runs in a new piece of headgear and it wouldn't be the first time that a horse has taken a couple of runs to see it take full effect.

Antoniola ran one of his best races last year when having a tongue-tie on for the third ever time and he was also very well-backed on that occasion. Graham Gibbons was the man to ride him that day, but they could only manage a 2nd place to Parvaaz, then rated 76 and last seen running off 93. Gibbons is a top-notch jockey (rides well here too) and had 2 winners from 3 rides at this course yesterday, including one for this yard. He comes to Redcar today for just this ride (yard has plenty of other runners here) and is still the only jockey to win on this tricky horse, so I wouldn't be surprised if today was the day for Antoniola. Conditions are grand for the horse, the step back in trip should help and he's ideally suited to flat, galloping tracks.

He's absolutely thrown in here if coming back into any sort of form and 18/1 looks huge. There's some decent animals in opposition here but nothing spectacular and a run matching a couple of his efforts last year would see this horse go very close. The yard being in horrific form of late would be a worry, but with 4 runs under his belt, the horse should be fit and capable of getting involved, especially at a track where he's run well before (on only visit). Mr Emirati was another who interested me at big prices. I'll play small each-way stakes on the Easterby/Gibbons combination providing another winner here at Redcar. There was also some support for this horse last time out and he looked in with a chance at one stage, before weakening and Hamilton, a track that I don't think suits. The return to Redcar could do the trick, and if it does, I'll be very, very happy! 18/1 is a huge price in my opinion, even though the horse has his quirks and there's plenty of risk in backing him, but for small stakes, the return could be a nice one if things pan out in his favour. Hopefully they do.

thesandeman · 31-05-2011 3:00am

How did you get on? Was watching out for a Sligo shirt being thrown in the air on telly but I didnt spot it lol.

x PyRo · 31-05-2011 3:05am

Not very good! Didn't have a single winner.

Had plenty of seconds mind. God I hate seconds!

Great day out (bar having the mother of all hangovers) and really enjoyed spending most of my time in the paddock. Thought Dascombe's 2 year old Cape Moss looked like a cracking horse and he'll be winning some races over further (ran over 5, missed the break, got outpaced then stayed on well). Keep an eye on him!

thesandeman · 31-05-2011 3:27am

Oh I know. Think I might start doing place multiples myself but if I do that everything will start winning and Ill be kicking myself lol.

x PyRo · 31-05-2011 2:04pm

That's always the way Sandy. Every time I change something, the thing I was doing before starts to work!

3:30 Redcar - Antoniola - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365)

The 6/4 favourite's out so I'm having another 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365)

He may well run another shocker but this price is absolutely massive IMO. He's more than capable of bouncing back to form.

CriticEyes · 31-05-2011 3:23pm

Good start. Thanks very much for your tip. Good luck with the next few.

budgemook · 31-05-2011 3:27pm

Beeeeauty

yaaaboy · 31-05-2011 3:32pm

You sir are a scholar and a gent, excellent picking Pyro! Got on amazeera this morning and he was drilled into just before the race - gamble landed !!!

x PyRo · 31-05-2011 3:42pm

Cheers lads, that's more like it. Just need another lot like her over the coming months and I'll be happy.

Although Antoniola went and ran a very poor race after. Oh the joys of being a gambler!

budgemook · 31-05-2011 3:45pm

x PyRo wrote: »

Cheers lads, that's more like it. Just need another lot like her over the coming months and I'll be happy.

Although Antoniola went and ran a very poor race after. Oh the joys of being a gambler!

Wouldn't worry about that, Come on Equuleus Pictor!

argosy2006 · 31-05-2011 4:00pm

7-1 with 2 pts on, backed into 10-3,
wish i had backed it,

, MAGIC,!
This is more like the old pyro!!:P

UrbanSea · 31-05-2011 4:12pm

Well done Py.

SteelyDanJalapeno · 31-05-2011 7:10pm

Thank you Pyro! was on Azameera! Beauty

x PyRo · 01-06-2011 2:25am

Cheers for all the comments lads, really appreciate it. Pity the other two were no great shakes, but at least that hot-streak I'm due may not be too far away.

A cracking start to the day when Azameera justified strong, late support to land the handicap off a mark of 78. It's clear as day that she's going to make it into a nice filly and she done it in fine style, running on late having been ridden to lead well inside the final furlong. She was a bit keen early on and didn't break overly well, but responded well to pressure once popped the question. It probably wasn't the best of races but I also think it wasn't run fully to suit, so she'll be more than capable of going on to compete at a higher level when things are in her favour even more (stronger gallop, faster ground). She also gives the impression that she'll be better over further, although she's got plenty of speed too. It'll be interesting to see how she develops throughout the year. Hindsight is a wonderful thing, but I'm kicking myself that she was my smallest stakes bet on the day, as I really did fancy her chances quite strongly. 7/1 was a nice price though.

Antoniola was another selection from the Easterby yard, who just aren't firing like they can. He was nibbled at (16's into 11/1) in an attempt to recapture some form but ran a quite poor race in the end, fading quite tamely. I've no idea whether I'll stick with him next time or not, but he's so well-handicapped that I'll find it hard to pass over him if the race is suitable. The other one I liked, Mr Emirati (33/1), ran an eye-catching race to stay on late and he may not be too far away from finding his way again. He could be worth keeping an eye on too.

Equuleus Pictor was the strongest of my two wins bets and was also fairly well supported, eventually going off at 9/2. The ground was probably a bit lively but having initially looked like he wasn't going to get involved (was losing ground up the hill), Cathy Gannon helped him find full stride and he began to hit top gear on the level. However, the winners rider, Leonna Mayor switched her mount to the right and plowed into my selection, ruining any chance he had (was snatched up, lost valuable momentum). If it hadn't of been for that, I reckon I'd of been on the winner and Six Wives would of been the unlucky horse of the race as he wouldn't of got a run through if it wasn't for nailing Gannon's mount. That's how it goes though and sometimes they work in your favour, just didn't work today. I'll be interested in EP once he goes back to either York or Windsor, as he's going to win again soon.

+7.00pts on the day, which is another step in the right direction. Loss for the season is at 0.74pts at the moment, so I'm nearly there. Hopefully there's another couple of winners to come.

4:50 Nottingham - Submission - 3pts @ 3/1 (WillHill)

This should be a very decent Fillies' Handicap, but Luca Cumani's Submission looks to me as if she's another potential Group performer running off a lowly handicap mark. This 79 rated filly is likely to excel over further, at least that's what breeding would suggest. However, Luca Cumani says that a lot of her sire's offspring can be overly keen and are often deceptive in how far they'll actually stay, so running her over a mile seems the logical step, for the moment at least. Given that she has a high cruising speed, the distance will be no problem at all, especially if she settles (can take a pull). Interestingly, she still holds an entry in the Group 2 Ribblesdale over 1m 4f at Royal Ascot in a couple of weeks, so connections obviously think a lot of her, and I do to. I'd just be surprised if she'd relax over such a trip but if she goes for it (will probably have to win well here), the price is likely to negate the risks involved and I'll probably be a backer. Ascot is the type of track she'd love.

As a juvenile, Submission ran well on her opening couple of career starts, the first being a 2nd place over 7f at Lingfield, in a race where she was an un-fancied 40/1 shot. The form of that race is worthless, but she showed a good attitude to finish where she did, having initially raced very free and was outpaced before staying on again. Lingfield was never going to show her in a great light anyways, so it was a most encouraging effort. She reappeared just under a fortnight later, this time at Kempton (7f, Fallon on board) and this time she was fancied, eventually going off as the 7/4 favourite in a 12 runner field. The race looked more competitive than the last one, but yet again, the form is completely worthless. However, she won it as easily as you like and was 5 lengths clear inside the final furlong without being asked a question (pushed out). A fast-finishing animal reduced the deficit to 1¾ lengths in the end, but she could of won by any distance. It was visually impressive, as she traveled notably well throughout and quickened away with ease. The long straight suited her and she's got a similar finish here today, at a track that is likely to be ideal.

Next time out, in the middle of October, connections stepped her up in class, this time at Newmarket in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes. 8th of 10 was her finishing position in the end, but that did not tell the whole story, as Submission was unlucky in running (didn't get a clear run) and got shuffled to the rear before losing her action coming into the dip. She also raced quite keenly and didn't look one bit at home on the track. I'm also convinced that she is a fast ground horse, so the cut in the ground may not have been ideal. Fallon didn't go hard on her once she was beaten and she also seems to be bred to improve at 3, so that run is quite easily forgiven. This horse is clearly full of potential and has plenty of ability as it stands, so I think she'll be making up for her only failing at Group level before too long, which obviously makes her at very attractive proposition running in a handicap off 79.

Submission didn't run again until 4 weeks ago, where she lined up over a mile at Goodwood, a track where I expected to see her swept off her feet. However, connections (or someone!) didn't think that and plowed into her inside the final few minutes of betting, as she was backed from a high of 16's into 6/1 just before the off. Good things were obviously expected in what was a fairly weak race (bar the winner) and once again, luck in-running was nowhere to be found for this animal. She was denied a clear run on a number of occasions, not least 2f out when JP Guillambert went searching for a gap. It just wouldn't come and a mid-division finish looked likely, but once it did come, very late on, she flew to lose out on 3rd place by a narrow margin under the most tender of rides. She wasn't tapped with the whip at all and was just pushed out hands and heels, which Luca Cumani has declared wasn't "the best of rides".

The winner of that race, Beatrice Aurore, would probably of won regardless, but my selection for todays race would of gave her a bit of a scare if she got through. That animal has since won a Listed contest with relative ease and is quietly fancied for the Epsom Oaks this weekend. The rest of the animals may not be up to much, but Submission would of given the winner a good run for her money and that gives her huge claims here, especially as she's running at a more conventional track this time around. The ground should be no problem, they'll go a decent clip up front and if she settles, I find it hard to see anything here capable of beating her. Kieren Fallon comes to Nottingham for just 2 rides, the other is an old selection of mine who finds winning nearly impossible and wouldn't have much hope today in my opinion. Submission is his best hope of a winner and also Luca Cumani's only runner of the day, at a track where he doesn't use Fallon too often. The pair have a fine record and can enhance it here with a potentially very nice type. She's also a mighty fine looking animal and still has plenty of scope for improvement. There's a couple of similarly lightly-raced dangers here, notably Manaaber, so I'm going to play it cautiously and have a medium sized bet. 3/1 is a brilliant price, even though it's at the low-end of what I'm willing to play, but I think she should be around half that, at the very least. I wouldn't be shocked to see her perform badly, as she obviously has some quirks, but with some luck and things being run to suit, she'll be on the scene and hopefully finishing strongly at a course that should be made for her. Fingers crossed that she'll go well.

x PyRo · 01-06-2011 3:09am

8:10 Ripon - Addictive Dream - 1.5pts e/w @ 7/1 (WillHill)

Getting fairly tired so I'll keep this brief enough. With the pace likely to be strong, Addictive Dream could finally do what he's been threatening to do of late and land a decent handicap. Sent off as favourite in 2 strong sprints so far this season, Walter Swinburn's 4 year old gelding is clearly well thought of and expected to be capable of defying a mark of 91. He still holds an entry in the Wokingham Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race in which I don't think he'd be out of place. For the moment, I think this 17 runner handicap at a track like Ripon is likely to be well within his capabilities and I think he should be the favourite here, although it's probable that he will be come the off.

Addictive Dream made his seasonal reappearance at Goodwood over 5 furlongs, in which he produced a career best effort in finishing a ¾ length 2nd to Humidor, who is a very good horse in his own right. They went hell for leather up-front that day and the time was nearly enough to break the track record, so the ground was possibly plenty lively enough for Walter Swinburn's charge. He held every chance of winning, but tended to look awkward under pressure and just couldn't go past the winner when upsides. It looked as if he'd be fully entitled to come on for the run and connections turned him out a couple of weeks later at Newbury, this time over 6f and under an extra 4lb rise in the weights. That was a class 2 contest, which represented a step up in class for the lightly-raced Addictive Dream, but connections got stuck in again and he was sent off as the 9/2 favourite in the 18 strong field. They didn't go overly quick early and I don't think Newbury fully plays to his strengths, so to finish off his race well to come a 3 length 4th wasn't a half-bad effort at all.

The Walter Swinburn yard are flying of late, with 7 winners from their last 27 runners and show a +£36 LSP in that 2 week period. They make a fairly long 400 mile round trip to run Addictive Dream, their only runner at the track. They've only ever had 14 runners here, which has resulted in 2 winners and 3 places. Jamie Spencer is the man entrusted with the steering and he's a very interesting booking for the yard, as he's only done so on 31 occasions for them, resulting in 5 wins and 9 places. He's riding well of late but has an exceptional record here, with 18 wins (23% SR, 23% ROI) and 21 places from just 79 rides. He has a couple of other good chances on the day, but I think this could be one of his best hopes of a winner and very much doubt that Swinburn is making the trek down to Ripon for nothing. Addictive Dream is suited to the track, the trip, the ground and this represents a drop in class too. There's a fair bit more to come from this lightly-raced 4 year old (9 career runs) and I'm sure he's overpriced at 7/1, although it is a tough enough race. Things should be run more favourably today and the ground won't be as lively as has been the case last twice. He's a nice horse and more than capable of getting involved, so I'll play smallish each-way stakes on him doing so. 4 places being paid if no more than one runner drops out.

budgemook · 01-06-2011 4:55pm

Woohoo!

blindpilot · 01-06-2011 5:00pm

Nice one Pyro.

PyRo's Horse Bets.

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