PyRo's Horse Bets.

thesandeman

Looks like the British air done you good Pyro.

argosy2006

Awesome, Did you really get 3-1.
Incredible, it finished 11-10

bonescap

Great picks today!

naughto

hes back theres no doubt about it

addictive dream wins easy

CriticEyes

Well flucking did. savage picking. You little beauty!! Get in. Winner Winner Chicken Dinner!!

ghosttown

Good man Pyro, was only a matter of time. I enjoyed cheering on Spencer in that one for you, even if i'm keeping my money for Ascot in 2 weeks !

x PyRo

That's what I'm talkin' about! :pac:

Some buzz being right for once. Missed days like these. Just need to have more of them now. Great ride from Fallon on Submission & Spencer on AD, although the latter horse was a machine today!

Thanks for the messages and I'll do my best to post more of those. :pac:

budgemook

Had a double on. Legend!

The Recliner

budgemook wrote: »

Had a double on. Legend!

As did I

Good man Pyro

argosy2006

boo yaw!
Good prices good pts,

x PyRo

Thank you folks. I should of done a double too, but that would of been wishful thinking.

---

Everything that could go wrong for Submission went wrong. She was trapped 4 or 5 wide with no cover for the majority of the race, got very lit up and didn't handle all the turns at all. However, her class shone through and she showed a cracking attitude to hold on from the fast finishing second place. I'm still actually surprised that she managed to win and this is only the beginning, because once she comes into her own mentally, she'll be a very exciting talent. I'd imagine she'll be Listed level at least and has the cruising speed to contest good mile contests, although she could possibly excel over further if she learns to settle. Connections obviously fancied her as she was smashed in the betting, eventually going off at 11/10. 3/1 was a great price, even with the 20p R4. Great performance to win and she's one to stick into the notebook.

Addictive Dream was next up and he was also smashed in the betting, eventually going off as the 4/1 joint-favourite. I thought he had a fairly good chance of getting involved anyways, but he went on to win in the style of a horse who's well up to winning more races. Jamie Spencer brought him over to the far side, where a smaller group of 6 raced. They sat in behind the pace, made a move to lead at halfway, then scooted clear of that group before gaining the overall advantage with 1½ furlongs to go. The runners on the other side, despite obviously being favoured, couldn't get close to him and he won by a handy 2 lengths. I thought Spencer rode a very good race but he was clearly on a very talented animal, who won his second ever handicap, off a mark a full 14lbs higher than his last. This horse is still lightly-raced, open to more progression and is in the right hands. Hopefully he'll go on to contest some very good 6f sprints, as he's clearly got the ability and has just put in a career-best effort. Lovely return from a smallish each-way bet at 7/1.

+20.32pts on the day. I'm back nicely in profit for the year and will update the stats after Saturdays racing. I had a feeling that June would be good, and there couldn't of been a better start than that. Hopefully it'll continue.

3:40 Hamilton - Berbice - 0.75pts e/w @ 22/1 (WillHill)

I can understand why the bookmakers would want to take on Berbice, maybe having him priced at double figures, but to say he's a 22/1 shot here is absolutely madness. Fair enough, he boasts a poor strike-rate, he's ungenuine, he hasn't won for a couple of years, but he does have the form in the book to win this and his price is massive in my opinion. When Linda Perratt's yard hit form, they're certainly worth keeping an eye on, and having failed to have a winner from her opening 52 runners this season, things didn't look very good. However, she had a resurgence the other day at Ayr, where 3 of her 6 runners ended up in the winners enclosure (11/4, 13/2, 15/2). She runs a similar amount of horses today and many of them are worth a look in the market. Not least this one, who is vastly overpriced.

Based on Berbice's penultimate start over C&D, he holds every chance of overturning form with the favourite Klynch, who he meets on 18lb better terms for a 2 length beating (Berbice traveled like a dream, but found nothing having taken a keen hold early). My selection got stuffed by Ruth Carr's inmate last time out, but given his often in-and-out profile, it would be no surprise to see him run right back up to scratch. As I say, I can understand why people would want to take this fellow on, but I'm sure that you'll find far worse 22/1 shots out there and if he's bothered today, Berbice could win at a canter. If he's not on a going day, he'll be miles behind and it'll be 1.5 points wasted. It's still a chance worth taking, as everything's in his favour, with regards to ground, track and the likely strong pace.

Berbice was once a smart horse for Richard Hannon, rated 107 at his prime (at 2). Like many useful 2 year olds, he struggled to find winnable races at 3 and collapsed 31lbs in the ratings. His only win at 4 came in a poor 7f handicap on the AW and he ran consistently at 5, but also failed to win. This horse has been a huge disappointment in recent years and has even failed to go past runners he was cantering all over, but he's now rated 64 and well below ratings he's been competitive off in recent times. He travels strongly, often too strongly before finding zilch for pressure, but Paul Hanagan is on board for the first time, and there's no better man for coaxing a horse into giving his all. He could be the man to unlock the door on this animal and hopefully he will. I don't expect much from this fellow, but on plenty of his recent form (this & last year), he has to be given a decent chance of making the frame at least.

His course form is good, having run well on all 3 starts here and he handles the ground. If things fell the right way, Berbice could look like an odds-on shot. If he doesn't bother, he'll look like a 200/1 shot. The current price negates the risk and I'll have a minimal each-way bet on him. Hanagan's course record is exceptional and if anyone can get this horse to win, it'll be him. It's a poor race but still ultra-competitive, as many of the others could be on a going day too, not least Jobe, who could be thrown in here if recapturing any of his old abilities. However, I'll take a chance on the Perratt/Hanagan combination to come up trumps.

x PyRo

6:30 Sandown - Fantasy Explorer - 1.50pts e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365)

I'm always interested in John Quinn's runners and I feel that Fantasy Explorer should be primed to strike, especially at a track that he's likely to enjoy. This fellow is now in his twilight years, being an 8 year old, but this one-time 91 rated animal showed up well last time out, where he finished an unlucky in running 5th of 8 in a decent contest at his beloved Newmarket. Whilst he wasn't definitely going to go on to win, he was traveling well as they met the rising ground. Luck wasn't on his side, as despite having a gap to go through for a long time, Jimmy Quinn was planning to produce him late. However, he waited for too long and this strong-travelling gelding was squeezed out of contention. He stayed on once paced up the hill but it could of been a lot different and I'll happily put that down as a very encouraging run from a horse (now 2lb lower) who hasn't stood much racing in the past 2 seasons (6 runs since November '09).

Fantasy Explorer may not have won for a long time (Oct '09), and it's been even longer since he's tasted success on the turf (Sep '08), but it's clear as day that he retains enough ability to get involved in a Class 4 0-85 Sprint Handicap, especially over 5 furlongs at a track that takes a fair bit of getting (has loads of pace for 5, enough stamina for 6, ideal here). Bar a lot of rain, he gets his preferred genuinely fast ground and he races at a level where he's got an exceptional record (3 wins, 1 second, 8 runs in C4 company). He's placed on 4 of his 7 outings at C3 level, and won once, placed 3 times in 15 C2 contests. Regardless of slight decline, there's no animal in the field today that he's not capable of beating and John Quinn is sure to be able to get this fellow back to winning ways before long. It'll just be a case of getting the right amount of luck at the right time, but this fellow has a good conversion rate having won 6 of his 37 outings, although he's got 8 seconds and 2 thirds to his name also. I think he'll be the most suited to how things pan out and it'll boil down to whether he's in the mood to take advantage or not, but given that he has a very good attitude usually, I see no reason for things to change here.

This is the first time that Fantasy Explorer will be tackling the Sandown hill, but John Quinn is making a 460 mile round trip to bring him here, and I feel it's not planned to be a pointless exercise. Quinn comes here with just one runner, to a track where he has had 7 winners and 3 seconds from just 24 runners (29% SR, 86% ROI). Over the flying 5 furlongs at Sandown, Quinn has a 5 winner, 2 seconds record from 13 runners (38% SR, 186% ROI). He certainly knows the time of day and it's quite easy to read his intentions when he makes the long journey from Settrington to Sandown. The booking of Dane O'Neill is an odd one, as he's only ridden for the yard on one occasion, a well-fancied 3rd placed runner on the all-weather. O'Neill is a jockey I've plenty of time for and he's done me many a good favour in the past, so hopefully he proves to be a positive on his first ride aboard this uncomplicated horse.

Island Legend, Cape Royal and Taurus Twins should all ensure this is going to be a furiously run race. When the pace, as I expect, gives way as they're coming up the hill, I think that O'Neill will be sitting pretty in behind them, that's what I'm hoping for anyways. His finishing kick seems most effective off a truly run pace and he's 99% sure to get that here, so hopefully it's as potent as the old days. There are dangers who will also thrive on this, but I think Fantasy Explorer should be hard beaten if he can put it all in today. 13/2 is a cracking price and I'd imagine that he'll be well-supported throughout tomorrow and could go off circa 4/1. Medium each-way bet for me, as I'm playing it safe and don't really want to play big stakes on an older horse, who could easily disappoint. He has a great chance though and I'd be very surprised if he didn't run a good race. Conditions are ideal, track should be ideal, strong jockey on board, race run to suit and he's very well-handicapped. Hopefully he'll oblige.

x PyRo

7:35 Sandown - First Post - 1.25pts e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill)

Highly competitive contest but despite being 6lbs above his last winning mark, First Post looks a horse capable of giving more. He disappointed last time out over 1m 2f at Newmarket but didn't look completely at home on that track (pulled hard too). He now returns to the scene of his last win (drops in grade too) and gets partnered with jockey Andrea Atzeni, who has ridden him to a couple of his better career efforts, including that C&D win last August. Atzeni was also on board for the horses penultimate run, in which he finished a 1½ length 3rd of 18 in a hot handicap over a mile at Ascot. I don't think that track is exactly what he wants (although he's run well there twice things happen to quick for him) and on the basis of that form, he holds a cracking chance here if running to a similar level at what seems to be his most effective venue (long run-in, stamina testing hill).

First Post is still fairly lightly-raced, having only run on 16 occasions. He's been generally consistent and progressive, with 3 wins, 2 seconds and 3 thirds. How much more to give is up for debate, but he does give the impression that a mark of 80 at a place like this is not beyond him, although he's a horse who will need things to go to plan. He doesn't exactly have a great turn of foot but gallops all day, which is why I think this track is perfect. The long run-in combined with the stamina testing hill will ensure that, if he's not spent by then, he'll be capable of making up ground on horses who have a superior burst of speed. However, he can lay up off a good pace and seems capable of catching horses when he has a target to aim at. It's more likely that the leaders will have to come back to him and I highly doubt he'll be bursting past anything, but that's why I find his Ascot outing so encouraging, plus the form is rock solid.

The form of the Derek Hayden Jones yard would also be a slight worry, as he's only had 2 winners from his 45 runners so far this year. However, he's had a further 6 seconds and 4 thirds, so I may be looking into that a bit too much. His recent 10 runners have been well below form, although none have went off at single figures. Haydn Jones makes a 300 mile round trip to come here with First Post, his only runner of the day, and books Andrea Atzeni again, a man who can get this horse going. The pairing have decent stats from a limited number of rides and Haydn Jones has a decent record here - 3 winners, 7 places from 27 runners (11% SR, 93% ROI). He's a trainer I quite like, although I don't know a whole pile about him, but I've backed winners out of his yard before. He can clearly train well and had a good year last year, so hopefully there'll be another winner coming here today. Being a 17 runner handicap, First Post has dangers surrounding him. However, he drops in grade, drops in trip, returns to a track he loves and gets his favoured fast ground. There's no reason he shouldn't go well and I'll have a small each-way bet on him going close. 4 places paid assuming more than one doesn't drop out.

Nuri Sahin

x PyRo wrote: »

6:30 Sandown - Fantasy Explorer - 1.50pts e/w @ 13/2 (Bet365)

x PyRo wrote: »

7:35 Sandown - First Post - 1.25pts e/w @ 14/1 (WillHill)

Cheers dude. Small amounts for interest(/clueless when it comes to horse racing so don't want risk much )on both.. but E/W money from both

Also my mate tipped Jobe @ 12/1 in the race at 3.40 at Hamilton, so good day all round - http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/860/89045391.png/

argosy2006

That's another day of profit !
Fantasy Explorer left it just to late, Unlucky.
First Post could have won too, veered around

x PyRo

Cheers lads, just wasn't to be today. Ah well.

Ade, I removed that giant quote btw. :pac: My tiny screen couldn't handle it!

---

So close yet so far, although that wouldn't be a comment applied to Berbice, who disappointed yet again. He pulled hard, cocked his head in the air and didn't get involved, despite being close enough inside the last couple. He's a frustrating horse and won't be carrying my money any time soon. To kick me in the balls even more, my second choice, Jobe, ran out a convincing winner under attacking tactics that I thought would be employed. Can't pick 'em all I suppose.

Fantasy Explorer, my strongest bet of the day, ran a creditable race to come a neck second. He was fairly strong in the market and Quinn obviously expected a good run, but it just wasn't good enough. Despite having plenty of front-runners in the field, the pace wasn't exactly as I'd expected, with the winner getting to dictate matters as the wide-drawn front-runners never got up to challenge. This wasn't ideal for my selection and he still managed to come a close up second. A stiff 5 furlongs suits him and he's well handicapped and in good form, so he's worthy of consideration next time out, depending on his price. He traded at 1.52 in-running and despite looking as if he'd go past the winner, he just couldn't find the extra kick to do so. Gallant effort though and a small profit despite a 15p R4.

Now for the one who got away - First Post, subject to a late jockey change, proved to be most frustrating as he hung away what looked to be a great chance of victory in the competitive 1m handicap. He was partnered with 5lb claimer Harry Bentley, whom I'm a big fan of but his poor use of the whip cost him. The horse hung all over the place and that's the only reason he lost here in my opinion, as he was only ¾l behind the winner at the end. Bentley hit him a few times on his right, horse went badly left, he put the stick into his left (took a while to do it), hit him to get him back on the right track (which he did), then went at him again with the left and he began to hang that way again. It's not like it was an awful ride or anything, as I'm sure it's not easy to do, but given how the horse responded to bring hit on his right hand side first time, he shouldn't of went at him on the same side after straightening him up. I could be wrong (in terms of the whip use), but that's what cost the horse a victory here. I'll be on again next time he's at this course. Profit from this bet too, but it could of been a lot nicer.

+2.19pts on the day.



2:10 Epsom - Hacienda - 1pt e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

Backing a Mark Johnston trained runner always comes with plenty of risks, but there's no doubting that Hacienda has the ability to bounce back to form, especially around a track that I think he's likely to enjoy. Things haven't went to plan for him since his opening 2 runs this season, as he's dropped away tamely last twice. However, I think he's one for the unconventional tracks and his only exceptionally poor performance, which was last time out, was around the galloping plains of Haydock. Previous to that, he made his comeback over an inadequate 7 furlongs at Thirsk, a race in which he finished a gallant 2nd, staying on well despite never having the pace to trouble the winner.

Hacienda was then sent off favourite in a similar contest to this, at Sandown, where he could only manage to come 6th of 15. He was just 2¾ lengths behind Wannabe King, whom he now meets on 7lb better terms, yet the latter is half the price that Johnston's is? The mind boggles, especially as my selection for todays race is much more likely to enjoy Epsom than he did Sandown. I'm not saying he'll win or definitely overturn the form, but the price differential isn't right at all, but that suits me fine.

Hacienda was then sent off a 7/2 favourite on his return to Thirsk, this time over a mile, which seemed ideal. However, he disappointed and failed to land a blow in the 15 runner contest, although I'm rarely too inspired when it's Royston Ffrench on board. Thirsk is too flat for him with more of an emphasis on speed, I think the perfect mixture of speed and stamina around Epsom will be too his liking and we could see a much better effort from a 4lb lower mark. There's no doubting this horse is well handicapped and like the majority of Johnston horses, a sudden return to form isn't impossible by any means.

The yard do have another runner in the race, the more fancied Tartan Gigha, who I was also interested in at 10/1. He's landed this race for the past 2 years and is also exceptionally well handicapped with excuses for his last few efforts, but I don't want to back him for the simple reason that I think 10's are too short. He's clearly talented but this is a tougher renewal compared to the last couple and I'll avoid, even though he's got a good chance. Hacienda is owned by Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum and when Greg Fairley rides his runners, the stats are positive. They've had 91 winners from 438 runners in the past 5 years, with a 21% strike-rate and a +£20 LSP. Fairley is riding well of late and has won on 3 of his 11 rides around Epsom Downs for Johnston. He comes here for just 2 rides and the other is one I wouldn't give a massive chance to.

I think 25's are very generous about Hacienda and he's likely to enjoy how things go here. He's tough, game, stays well and has enough speed to sit in behind what should be a good pace. It's quite possible that he could make the running himself but with a few others potential pacesetters in opposition, I think a prominent tracking position will be the order of the day. If all goes to plan and he doesn't fade away early on, I'd imagine they'll be trying to quicken the tempo early on, as the horse isn't one who's going to show a rapid turn of foot to catch the leaders if the pace shows no signs of giving way. He's nearly assured to stay the trip if ridden correctly and attempting to burn them off early on could pay dividends around here. It's so hard to know what Johnston is planning so I'll just have a small each-way stake on this one, but there's no doubting that he could go close if recapturing his best and being let at it.

x PyRo

3:25 Epsom - Right Step - 3pts @ 13/2 (WillHill)

If ever there's a horse that deserves to win a nice handicap it's Right Step, who's constantly climbing the ratings despite failing to win. However, despite going up the weights and having plenty of placed efforts to his name, this relatively lightly raced 4 year old colt seems to be improving all the time. He's posted career-best efforts on each of his last 3 outings and shows no signs of failing to run his race, so to get 13/2 about him in this contest is pretty attractive, especially with the wonderful Ryan Moore taking over in the saddle. He's trained by Alan Jarvis and he has his yard in good knick this year, with 5 winners and 6 places from his 37 runners (14% SR). His runners seem to go under the radar quite a bit and keep getting sent off at odds much too big, as his +£49.75p LSP would suggest. The man can train though and he's done a fine job with Right Step, who, after 3 consecutive second places, deserves to gain his second career win.

His failings to win are not down to a poor attitude, as Right Step is an out-and-out trier, he just always runs into one too good. Last time out, he was unlucky to come up against Roger Varian's unexposed improver Pekan Star. Before that it was Akhmatova, last seen attempting to tackle Listed and Group 3 level. Lost In The Moment, a Jeremy Noseda trained colt was the horse to beat him previous to that, and he's since landed a big handicap at Meydan off 97. I'm sure Jarvis is tearing his hair out as his charge has went up 10lbs in the handicap without winning, but it's a testament to his progression and he's being overlooked once again.

The favourite in this race, Beaumont's Party, for all that he's an improved performer, has only landed C4 & C5 handicaps on his last couple of outings. Fair enough, he's going the right way and seems to have lots more to give, but he's now tackling a C2 contest where the highest rated animal is 102. On his last couple of outings (which he won), he's faced animals rated 85 & 75, at the highest. He won as you like but this is a massive step up in class and he's down as a 3/1 shot? Give me a break. Ground, track, etc etc are no problem to him but surely that price is hilariously unfair? He's also now running off a mark of 89, a full stone higher than the first of those victories for his new yard. I'm not saying he won't win or perform well but it's like a solid high-level handicapper hopping into Group level against very good horses and being installed as the short priced favourite, it's just wrong. I hope he's beaten now or else I'll look stupid!

Right Step is solid, proven at this level, going the right way, suited to conditions and well drawn to sit in behind the pace. There's nothing here that suggests to me he can't get involved. Alan Jarvis has his yard in good knick (3 wins from last 11) and has a more than decent record around here. He's dropped the claimer that was on board last time out and is replacing him with Ryan Moore, which is a very positive move, although the horse is effectively carrying 8lbs more than last time out. Regardless of that, the more experienced and powerful handling of Moore is bound to be a plus, especially as he has an excellent record around this unconventional track. Right Step is well-balanced, has a lovely stride and has the gears to be right at home around Epsom. He stays very well and assuming he gets a good toe into the race, I'll be expecting him to make the frame at least. There's more dangers in the line up but I feel this fellow is overpriced and underrated in this contest. There's no reason why he can't find the added improvement to go well here and the jockey should prove to be a big positive. Hopefully he'll go well, as I'm playing medium win stakes on this fellow. Tres Coronas may be worthy of a stake saver, as he scares me the most!

x PyRo

(Investec Oaks)

4:05 Epsom - Fork Handles - 0.50pts e/w @ 66/1 (Bet365)

There's a fair chance that this is a pointless waste of a few quid but I think Fork Handles has plenty more to give and looks an interesting proposition in a race that's wide open. Whilst this fairly averagely bred filly doesn't have the form in the book to trouble some of these, a few of her eye-catching staying-on late performances have caught my eye, not least when she was just over 6 lengths behind Wonder Of Wonders in the 1m 3½f Chesire Oaks a month ago. Despite being comprehensively beaten on paper, Mick Channon has come out and said that "she didn't handle the course at Chester on her reappearance, she was on the wrong leg a lot of the time and ran very well in the circumstances.", before going on to say "I was pleased with that effort. She's still in the Oaks - I'm not closing any doors yet - but we might keep her for the Ribblesdale or something similar." Whilst those statements would give the impression that she'll probably not handle the Epsom course, I'm more than happy to take a chance at odds of 66/1.

Despite seemingly being bred for around a mile, Fork Handles strikes me as the type who'll stay all day, and if things could just come together for her today, it wouldn't be a shock to see her make the frame. On official ratings, form and raw scope, she's got the world to find with the likes of Blue Bunting, Havant and even stablemate Zain Al Boldan, but this likable type, in the words of her own trainer, is "a smashing filly, has scope, size and a bit of the right sort of attitude." Mick Channon clearly holds her in decent regard and as must Dr Marwan Koukash, who's been running her in stakes races since she won a maiden that would of seen her nicely weighted for handicaps.

Fork Handles has proved to be disappointing on a few tilts at Group level, but all 3 of her efforts were on GS ground over 7 & 8 furlongs, conditions I don't think are ideal. All of her runs on fast ground have seen her finish to good effect and the combination of a track requiring speed, stamina and gears should help. Whether she handles the ups and downs is the only thing I'd be worried about but the price makes it worth a tiny go. Jamie Spencer is on board and riding as well as ever, Mick Channon has his yard in better knick than he's ever had before and if he thinks everything was wrong for her last time out, then surely she's capable of getting a lot closer to the current 7/2 shot Wonder Of Wonders? I certainly hope so anyways. 66's look big and I'll play tiny each-way stakes on her going close. I couldn't be tempted by many of the others and if this filly handles the track, I feel she could run a big race. She should also be a lot fitter for that effort last time out and if things had of went her way in the race, she wouldn't be this price. Hopefully she'll go well and doesn't tail off!

SteelyDanJalapeno

Threw the 3 of em in an E/W Patent for the Bank holiday craic!

x PyRo

They'd break your heart at times!

Right Step deserves to win a massive race sometime!

argosy2006

Very Unlucky!
2nd again,

prospect

argosy2006 wrote: »

Very Unlucky!
2nd again,

Stuck 1 e/w on this and won 0.30c

thesandeman

Need a screenshot!

x PyRo

Tough day at the office and it started on a poor note with Hacienda dropping away in hilarious fashion. He was ridden towards the head of affairs and was still going alright after they turned for home. However, once Greg Fairley said go, the horse surely went, although it was in the wrong direction as he dropped out of contention within a couple of strides. Disappointing but they're the risks when backing a Johnston horse. That wasn't his true running and he'll probably get another few lbs from the handicapper, before going on to win in lesser company. Keep an eye on that horse, as he's going to trot in some week soon.

I got a bit greedy and backed Right Step win only, which seemed like a great idea at the time given how much I fancied him. However, as always, he found one too good and finished second to a course specialist. It was another cracking effort carrying much more weight than he was last time out and in a race of this nature. He's climbing the handicap without winning but he's clearly progressive, game and talented, so he's bound to get compensation for all those defeats some time soon. He's a brilliant horse, it's just a pity that there's always one that bit better. Can't complain, but a handier racing position would of made a huge difference.

There was a few quid about for Fork Handles, who was backed from 100/1 into 40's. Probably only took a few quid to move that but I thought she could run a good race regardless of the price. It wasn't to be, as she never landed a blow and was eased quickly, suggesting all may not have been well. She's still a very promising filly in my opinion and that effort can be quickly brushed under the table, as she's much better than that. It's obvious now that she's not up to this level but I wouldn't dismiss her totally from winning a Group race of some kind. If she goes for the Ribblesdale, I'll back her. She's a monster of a horse and it may have been that Epsom was completely against her. I hope that's all it was anyways.

-6.00pts on a disappointing day but hopefully things will change around on Super Saturday!



1:40 Epsom - Rain Mac - 3pts @ 4/1 (Bet365)

Exciting 3 year old handicap in the offing and with John Gosden's yard being in such great form this year, Rain Mac is bound to make his mark here, assuming he handles the track of course. This lightly-raced, well-bred colt has more than enough about him to suggest that a mark of 86 may not be beyond his true capabilities, and having had an impressive pipe-opener over this 1m 2f trip at York, he's going to be capable of running much better. Gosden has his yard in good knick, but with so many improving for the run and winning second time out, his horses are always worthy of respect. Rain Mac could of made a winning seasonal debut if it wasn't for poor positioning in a slowly run race and despite racing off a pound higher here, he can gain compensation.

Sud Pacifique, a potential Royal Ascot runner, was the horse who Rain Mac finished a 3 length 3rd behind last time out. They ran off the same rating that day and if Jeremy Noseda's impressive colt was lining up here (having not run at York), he wouldn't be priced up at 4/1. I think Gosden's runner will prove to be a better horse in the long term (although that's pure guesswork but I don't think that running is correct for numerous reasons) and he warrants maximum respect here in a contest where he should get things run to suit (needs a fast pace). There's plenty of similarly unexposed potential improver's but only one truly worries me, and that's Roger Varian's Boogie Shoes. However, despite winning comfortably last time out, I'd question what he's beaten that would warrant him being the 11/4 (and shortening) favourite. He's opposable, on the form not being good enough, although he looked visually impressive. There's also a 7lb rise in the weights to contend with. Not for me anyways, although the track should suit.

Rain Mac missed the break slightly in that C4 handicap at York and given how well he did when racing handy on his impressive maiden win last year, I don't think the hold-up tactics were exactly ideal, although he did run on well before being caught flat footed inside the final furlong. His effort petered out towards the end but I think he wasted too much energy to get himself into contention on the unfavoured part of the track and subsequently had nothing else to give. More prominent tactics on the back of a stronger gallop is likely to pay massive dividends, and the only worry is the ups-and-downs of the Epsom racecourse. A speed and stamina test should suit though, and having handled the dip at Newmarket with relative ease (and excelled on the hill), he looks a well-balanced type capable of going around here. Plenty of guess work backing a lightly-raced 3 year old around a place like this but he's surely worth taking a chance on.

That maiden win last year was over 1 mile at Newmarket, where Rain Mac ran out a convincing winner in the end, despite having a few problems. He was caught very wide throughout having been drawn poorly, got outpaced (showed a fine cruising speed beforehand) and got hampered, before rallying to win going away. He proved that day that a mile probably wasn't his optimum trip, although given the fact that it was another slowly run race, I think he done exceptionally well to win in that manner. It's debatable what he beat but there's been plenty of winners out of the race since (at a lower level mostly). Everything went wrong for Rain Mac that day but a combination of raw talent and a fine attitude got him through. He's running over further now, at a track that mixes all the attributes he has and in a race where one of the numerous prominent racers is bound to make it a good test. I think the John Gosden/William Buick combination could be very hard to beat here and 4/1 looks a more than acceptable price. I'd have him in at around 5/2 with claims for being even shorter. This horse should be even better than he was last time out and considering how things panned out, he ran a great race. Hopefully he will do so again.

x PyRo

(The Epsom Dash)

3:15 Epsom - Confessional - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (WillHill)

Saying this is going to be fast and furious is an understatement, it's also an awfully tough race to get to grips with. However, I'll happily take a chance on the Tim Easterby trained 4 year old, Confessional, who despite being the apparent second-string from the yard, looks to hold every chance of going well. Whilst he's probably not the horse with the most raw ability in the field, he's more than capable of getting competitive off this mark of 91, especially given a couple of his efforts already this year. With draw being key in the big-field sprints around Epsom, you're going to want a horse positioned relatively high.

Confessional has a nice position in stall 13 of 16 and assuming he breaks alright, there'll be no excuses on that front, as he should get a nice position. He's also tactically versatile and can do it from the head of affairs or from off the pace, so the world's his oyster in that regard. Paul Mulrennan takes over in the saddle and he's a jockey I've a lot of time for. This horse is a quirky type and may be better off with someone who knows him inside out on board, but as long as he isn't walloped with the whip (doesn't like it at all!), there should be no complications. The pace is likely to be frighteningly fast and this is no problem to Easterby's charge, who has more than enough pace to lay up with them. He can be quite lazy though, so it would be no surprise to see him under pressure early on, but he will be staying on strongly bar disaster.

Captain Dunne, the other runner from this yard, is the current favourite here. Whilst he was only pipped by the smallest margin in a French Group 3 contest, I don't think he's much better off in this race compared to my selection. They faced-off at Chester over the flying 5 furlongs, and Confessional was only 1¾ lengths behind his stablemate, who had a better passage through having got a handy position early. My selection was held-up and had to challenge wide as they turned for home, where he then made relentless progress to finish ½ a length behind the leading trio. That was an exceptional run given how things panned out at a tricky track like Chester and a straight 5 furlongs suits him a lot more. He gets that today and given how he ran at Goodwood (similarly quick 5f) last year, it'd be no surprised to see him relish Epsom on his first outing here. The horse is also only 3lbs above his last win and that was a very easy one indeed. Given that he's only a 4 year old, there's quite possibly more to come from him, especially tackling a track like this. It's not an easy race to punt in, so I'll just play minimal each-way stakes at a price I consider much too big. I'd mention dangers but the whole field is a danger, so there's no point!

x PyRo

(The Epsom Derby)

4:00 Epsom - Seville - 3pts @ 7/1 (Ladbrokes)

This should be such an exciting race and the one I'm quite taken by is Aidan O'Brien's high-class Seville, who is supremely bred, talented and has all the attributes of a horse capable of winning a Derby. He's never a 7/1 shot in my book, as his running behind Carlton House isn't a true reflection of his abilities, even though he ran a cracker considering. Against a top-level horse, a 1m 2f race turning into a sprint is never going to favour this fellow, and although it obviously didn't favour The Queens horse either, I think that form can be reversed with relative ease.

Firstly onto the favourite - Being out of Street Cry, there has to be massive doubt about Carlton House actually staying the 1m 4f trip if this race is truly run. Over 12 & 13f, that sire has a record of 2 winners from 42 runners. Whilst none may has the class of this animal, it's still quite an uninspiring statistic, especially due to the amount of speed that Carlton House showed when winning the Dante Stakes at York. That race was over 6 seconds above standard (showing how slow they went early) and surely it can't be considered form worthy of being a 5/2 shot in a field with some animals bound to improve for the step up to this trip. I don't think he'll see it out well enough to win (if they go fast early) and I don't think he's a worthy favourite. I'm not saying he'll lose, nor am I saying he'll fail to perform well, I'm saying he doesn't hold enough positives to be worthy of this price tag.

There seems to be stamina from his dams side, although she had a stamina influencing sire which Carlton House does not have. The peak of her powers came over 1m 2f too, and I think similar traits apply to her son. If this turned into a sprint, it'd be hard to get him beaten, but as it will probably end up being run quickly enough, I just couldn't have him, regardless of his obvious class. In fairness to Carlton House, he did pull like a train early on in the Dante and was fairly lit up, so to do what he did was impressive, I just don't think he's in with as big a chance as he's priced to have.

Seville, on the other hand, is bred to relish the extra yardage today and I fully expect a big performance from this class son of Galileo. His performance to finish within 1½ lengths of Carlton House was very good given how things panned out and with a much more favourable pace (over a longer trip) in the offing here, that form can be reversed. Seville is an exceptionally well-balanced, talented individual and he's sure to have a lot more to offer this game at the top level. Epsom should hold no fears for him and the track is likely to suit a lot more than York did. I'm hoping he's ridden close to the pace and attempts to burn them off from the front after they turn for home, as there's no doubting that he'll see out the trip and giving the speedsters no time to wait around could pay dividends.

Christophe Soumillon, who was also on board last time out, comes over to Epsom to ride his first Derby contender, on what is his 30th birthday. That has absolutely no bearing on anything, but I thought I'd mention it! There's not many better jockeys than him around and having experienced this horse before, he's bound to know what to do to get the best out of him. The horse does look quite an uncomplicated ride anyways so it won't take expert handling to have him in contention, but knowing what to do and when to do it will be key here, as having a good finishing kick often pays dividends in the Derby and I think that may be the one thing Seville lacks. However, there's numerous ways he can go about winning this and tearing off from the 3 pole, if at all possible, would be my preference with a horse like this. He also ran well as a 2 year old in the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy when finishing less than a length behind Casemento over a mile, so he doesn't exactly lack speed.

Also, like most Aidan O'Brien horse, he should improve for having had that recent outing and if he does, we could see a totally different beast with more favourable race conditions thrown in too. Recital would be the only other one I'd have big concerns about, as he could be class. I just think there's plenty of risk involved in backing him and his price is shorter than Seville's, which I don't think is correct. It should be really interesting to see how they get on anyways, but I'll side with the latter, who oozes class and has plenty more to come. Medium stakes for me, although I should probably just play it safe in a race like this, but I'll take a shot. The price is a few points too big and the horse should run his race. Hopefully he's good enough.

Gavin "shels"

That be your only bet on the Derby? Was hoping you might have chosen a nice longshot one (aka the one I've picked aka Memephis Tennesse 28/1 )

x PyRo

No more for me dude. Staking too much as it is! GL with yours.

4:50 Epsom - Life And Soul - 2pts @ 15/2 (WillHill)

Hard to split a couple of these but the Amanda Perrett trained Life And Soul put in a career-best effort when finishing 3rd in a hot-handicap over this trip at Newmarket on seasonal debut. Whilst he ended up just over 2 lengths behind the leader, things could of been a lot different if Neil Callan kicked on when he had the chance, but as he had so much horse underneath him at the time, he held onto him. In the end, the pair got outpaced by the leading duo and the flood of support that came for the horse left in the bookmakers back pocket, unless they backed it each-way of course! However, to come back from a long enough lay-off and run like that was highly encouraging, so I think he's worth siding with once again.

Life And Soul proved most consistent last year and only put in one really poor effort (hampered mid-run). The rest of his exertions saw him progress from a 75 rated handicapper all the way up to 93. Given that he's only raced on turf 12 times and is still only a 4 year old, it's quite possible there's more to come. The impression is that he'll see out further than this 1m 4f trip, as his entry in the Irish Leger would suggest. However, that entry seems to be a strong indication that connections think quite a lot of him and surely this mark is not insurmountable. With enough pace on here, Life And Soul should get the chance to utilize his best traits - traveling and staying. He probably lacks the finishing kick that a lot of the top-level handicappers have over this trip, but with a good pace being likely here, everything could fall his way. His yard is in good form this year, he has a jockey on board that I really rate and he's at a track where he has run well before (2nd behind Dandino over 1m 2f). 15/2 looks a cracking price for an in-form, progressive and talented horse who may just find this handicap beneath him if everything went right. He should go well and I'll have small/medium stakes on him winning.

UrbanSea

Rain Mac doesn't go

x PyRo

Having another bet.

5:25 Epsom - Fireback - 3pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

With Andrew Balding's yard flying and Fireback coming here on the back of a decent pipe-opener, there may be no better chance of catching this lively 4 year old. He was progressive throughout 2010, landing handicaps off 78 & 84, ending the season rated 90 having started it off a mark of 73. One of those wins was an impressive 3 length victory in a 15 runner handicap on the Lingfield turf, and given how well he handled that tricky track, there should be no reason why he won't do the same here. He's got the stamina for 7f and the speed for 6, so the trip holds no qualms around here. The genuinely fast ground is also another positive and the horse has the benefit of Jimmy Fortune on board, a man who I think is an exceptional jockey.

Andrew Balding has had no fewer than 4 winners from his last 10 runners, including 2 seconds. His winners have come at odds of 8/1, 9/1, 9/1 and 10/1, so it's not like they were overly fancied. In the past couple of weeks, he's had 9 winners from 36 runners and is running at a strike-rate of 25%, which is more than impressive. His record on track is phenomenal, with 11 winners from 45 runners in the past 5 years and he's 3 from 8 with Fortune on board, including a further 3 places. They seem to mean business with Fireback here and the horse should have no excuses. The only worry is that he's still 4lbs above when winning a 20 runner handicap at Newmarket last July, but given his overall profile, it'd be no surprise to expect further progression from a horse who's only raced 11 times and 3 of them were modest maiden efforts to get a nice handicap mark.

A truly run 6f is ideal and connections say he's strengthened up well over the winter, so it's likely that there's lots more to come, although it's always hard to win in these competitive sprints. Fireback has an OK draw in stall 9 and he should be able to get a nice position in behind or beside the leaders from there, with a bit of luck of course. I've missed the 10's that were available last night and he's only 7/1 now, but I think that's a very backable price. Money for Balding runners is also quite significant and if this is the right money forcing the move here, I'm sure they'll be expecting a big effort from their only runner at Epsom today. I'll play medium stakes on this one, as the price is very attractive even though it's shortened.