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PyRo's Horse Bets.

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  • Registered Users Posts: 17,965 ✭✭✭✭Gavin "shels"


    Unlucky with Confessional, still 2nd place is quality.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,852 ✭✭✭budgemook


    Is it 1/4 odds bookies paying on that one does anyone know. PP if it helps


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,335 ✭✭✭✭UrbanSea


    Aw unlucky. Talk about a blanket.


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Frustrating day. Confessional, one of many unlucky horses in the race, just couldn't get through at the right time having been stuck in behind a few others. However, when he did get through, he flew to get within a neck of the winner, his stablemate Captain Dunne. With a clear run, I've little doubt that he'd of went on to land the spoils, but that's how she goes. Cracking effort from a very talented horse and there's surely more to come from him. He'll eventually gain compensation for that and hopefully I'll be on. Each-way money at 16's wasn't half-bad, but it could of been so much better with some luck.

    Seville was held-up and based on my opinions of the horse, his chances were shot there and then. Had he raced handier (tracking), I think things could of been a lot different. No need to make excuses for him, but being held up in rear wasn't ideal for a horse who lacked the instant turn of foot needed to make ground at the right time. There's plenty more to come from him and I'd be surprised if hold-up tactics are pursued with in any decent-sized fields that he partakes in. The horse has loads of talent and is capable at the top-level, he was just never given a chance today. Glad to see Carlton House beaten mind, purely because the BBC wouldn't shut up about him.

    There was a few quid about for Life And Soul, who really needs a fast pace to be at his best over this trip. He got anything but that, as they crawled for a long way and turned it into a three furlong sprint. He raced keenly throughout but still ran extremely well considering. He was in second coming into the final furlong (still running on well) and only lost third in the final strides. He travels like a dream though and taking a keen hold in a race that turns into a sprint was never going to favour a stayer like him, so it was a more than encouraging run. He's on a winnable mark and the next time he gets a truly run race (and/or gets stepped up in trip), I think he'll be back in the winners enclosure. Can't complain as it was a good effort in the circumstances. It was good to see Mark Johnston was "always trying" in this race. Pity he can't do the same when I back any of his horses!

    Fireback ran a very good race to finish third in the end, just losing out on second in the final strides. He got the fast pace he wanted but got outpaced at the 2 pole, before sticking on to his task very gamely in the end. He's sure to be nearing the peak of his powers again and can continue to be competitive off this sort of mark in these big-field contests. He's only a 4 year old, still lightly-raced, so I doubt he's handicapped beyond his abilities just yet. I'll be interested in him next time out, price, track and ground dependent.

    -5.00pts on the day. No winners from 7 bets at the Derby meeting, which is disappointing but 3 of the 7 bets placed (2 seconds) and another just lost out on a place in the last strides. No selections tomorrow (no flat racing anyways) - I'm off out on the beer tonight!

    Stat Attack -

    Bank - 224.56pts (+124.56pts)

    2011 Flat Stats ; +10.77pts

    Bets - 95
    Wins - 8
    Placed - 27
    Win SR - 8.4%
    Staked - 250.00pts
    Returned - 260.77pts
    ROI - +4.3%


    *Placed bets don't include the winners.

    So many places, not enough winners. Although it's on the rise now.

    20 bets since my last update, in that time the stats are -

    Profit - +27.51pts

    Bets - 20
    Wins - 4
    Placed - 6
    Win SR - 20%
    Staked - 50.00pts
    Returned - 77.51pts
    ROI - +55%


    *Placed bets don't include the winners.

    Things have definitely picked up of late and hopefully there's lots more winners to come.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,210 ✭✭✭argosy2006


    If you can make next 20 like last 20 then
    game on


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  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    7:15 Windsor - Chain Of Events - 2pts e/w @ 7/1 (Bet365)

    When Neil King has runners on the flat they always warrant respect, and that comment applies to the in-form Chain Of Events, who looks a massively improved performer since coming back for his 4 year old campaign. Having originally cost 85,000gns as a yearling, this one-time Barry Hills trained (raced 5 times, sold for 18k gns) only managed an average maiden win during his 2 & 3 year old campaigns. However, having returned in May at Newmarket, on the back off a winter break, Neil King's charge took advantage of a career-low handicap mark to land the spoils in an average C5 handicap by 3½ lengths. It was the style of the victory which was most impressive, as he traveled supremely throughout and put the race to bed within a couple of strides, only needing a light reminder to settle proceedings.

    Similar comments applied for the next time Chain Of Events went to the racecourse, as once again, he traveled with supreme authority over 1m 2f at Sandown (hit 1.13 in-running). He could only manage 2nd place in the end, beaten by a horse I had backed. However, the steep uphill finish at that course blunted his finishing effort and he couldn't hold on having taken the lead a furlong from home. Now that he's returning to a flat track with more of an emphasis on speed, I fail to see how he can't get involved from the same handicap mark as he faced last time out. He's never encountered a sharp track like Windsor, but given the price available, I'll happily take a chance on it proving no obstacle. The trip is his optimum, the pace should be strong and with the ground being potentially slower than the current GF that it's listed as, everything is likely to suit.

    The Racing Post analysts claim that the rain-softened ground "blunted his finishing effort" last time out, but I'm fully sure it was as a result of running out of puff from the steep 4f hill that's encountered at the end of the races around Sandown. You need a horse who gets further than the bare distance around there and I think it stretched him too much. Todays track should be much more up his street. With regards to the ground, both his wins have come on genuinely GF going, but I've got plenty of reasons to believe that Chain Of Events will handle most ground (full brother finished 2nd in G2 on GS, sire has good record on slower ground and handled cut himself). The ground is still marked down as GF but with plenty of rain around in the past number of hours, it's possible that it'll slow down a fair bit.

    Chain Of Events' trainer, Neil King, is 1-1 at Windsor in the past 5 years and when Eddie Ahern rides for them, his records is 3 wins and 2 seconds from just 6 runners (unplaced horse was 33/1 no-hoper). That's a pretty good record to say the least and Ahern, who rides at Folkstone earlier in the day, comes up to Windsor for just the one ride. He was on this horse for the first time last time out and I quite like the fact that he's booked again. The yard are in cracking form and they must think that another win is achievable sometime soon for their much improved performer, especially as this is his third outing in a few weeks. He's upped in class now but has run well at a higher level before, when seemingly not in as good as form compared to now. His best performances have come when carrying less weight and with 9st 1lb on his back, he has a nice riding weight to contend with today.

    Chain Of Events should be able to get a nice position from stall 5, although it'd be handier if he had a higher draw. They should also go a good clip upfront and that's exactly what he wants. There's no reason why this fellow shouldn't go well again and 7/1 is a nice each-way price about him. Medium stakes for me and I think he's got a great chance of adding to his 2 career wins. There are dangers galore, with previous selections Urban Space (7/1) and Meglio Ancora (20/1) also catching the eye, but Neil King's charge could relish this track and I'll take a chance on him gaining victory. This is my only bet of the day, nothing else stands out.


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,050 ✭✭✭✭eh i dunno


    Just threw €17 on him at 4/1. PP have a money back special if your horse is second to the favourite in this race :) Cheers Pyro for the write up


  • Registered Users Posts: 12,050 ✭✭✭✭eh i dunno


    Beaten by a length...Fair play going e/w Pyro


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,210 ✭✭✭argosy2006


    Another day of profit !. Only 1 length away from a huge pay out
    Keep em coming


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Another selection who finishes in second place to increase frustration. That's now four seconds in as many days and surely something will rattle in at some stage soon. However, Chain Of Events ran a good race, eventually going down by a length to an unexposed type over this sort distance. He traveled well again and found plenty for pressure, but the winner had flown and he couldn't make up any more ground in the closing stages. The ground proved no obstacle though and he'll be of interest again depending on price/track.

    +0.10pts after the 25p R4 is taken into account. Woohoo!

    3:35 Redcar - Ginger Jack - 1.50pts e/w @ 12/1 (WillHill)

    With Geoffrey Harker's yard running like there's no tomorrow, Ginger Jack, a recent recruit from the Mark Johnston stable, looks mightily interesting on the back of two decent pipe-openers for new connections. They forked out a princely 70,000gns for this well-bred sort and given that he's not overly exposed, there could be plenty more to come. There's a fair chance he'll mature into a nice horse over 1m 2f+, but he's already got more than enough form over this 1m trip to suggest that he could go well here, especially as the handicapper has loosened his grip, returning him to his last successful mark of 87. Johnston seemed to think plenty of this fellow last year but also stated that genuinely fast ground may be the key to him. Today, he gets exactly that, bar any extra rain. I see no reason for him not to go well and 12/1 looks worthy of a bet, despite this being a more than competitive contest.

    Ginger Jack, successful in 4 of his 11 outings last year, had previously shaped as if he'd probably progress into a Listed class performer. Considering connections paid a very decent fee for him, there's a fair chance they think he'll be capable of progressing past the mark he was when purchased, which was 92. I'd say it's extremely likely that he'll prove to be better than this rating of 87, but it could be a case of when connections decide to go flat out with him, as he was easy to back last twice in races that he'd be more than capable of winning. However, he was only beaten by 7 lengths on both occasions, shaping as if needing the run first time out and failing to get a clear run when going OK last time out. Given that he's at his best when taking a prominent position, I'd imagine that was just a ploy to either protect his handicap mark or wait for another day. It was an encouraging effort though and the straight, flat, galloping mile that he faces today could be right up his street, especially if they go off fairly lively in-front.

    I would of liked to have seen a more positive jockey booking that Duran Fentiman, even though I do rate him. He's 0-3 for this yard, although they were on board big priced runners (16/1, 50/1, 66/1). Fentiman is having a very good year by his standards, although results have slowed down of late with only 1 winner from his last 30 rides. I hate when the stats aren't impressive but given the price, I'll take a chance. The opposite can be said about Geoffrey Harker, as his yard are flying of late. 4 of his last 8 runners have won and he's having a productive start to the 2011 flat season. He comes here with just this fellow today and hopefully will add to that recent impressive form. With a couple of outings under his belt, Ginger Jack should be spot on here. Whether or not he'll be waited with for a different day is another story, but he's priced very attractively in a contest that he's more than capable of getting involved in. I'll play fairly tentative each-way stakes. If he doesn't win today, his turn won't be far away, so it's worth sticking him in the notebook regardless.

    Of the rest, Boom And Bust is far too short as he's now upped in grade to tackle much better horses. Connections make a long trip to run this animal and he warrants a lot of respect, but he's climbing the weights and the ranks, which leads me to believe that 4's are much too skinny. I prefer horses falling down through the ranks, not going up, so he's passed over. Collateral Damage would be of massive interest if the ground wasn't so lively. He's exceptionally well handicapped and ran a cracking race over an inadequate 7 furlongs last time out, but he doesn't go on fast ground and if there's no rain, I couldn't recommend him at the price. Northern Fling is interesting for Jim Goldie and Kiwi Bay boasts a very good track record, but Ginger Jack has a lot more to offer his new connections, gets his ideal conditions and should have a nice pace to run at. It's hard to know if he'll be all out to land this prize, but if he is, he'll be sure to take a lot of beating. Can't see 12's hanging about during the day. Hopefully he'll go well.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 4,791 ✭✭✭prospect


    Is there a button to thank an entire thread?


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Plenty of money about for Ginger Jack during the day, as he touched around 6/1 in place. However, he opened up at 12's on course, drifted to 14's, was held-up from the get-go and never got put into the race. The Harker clan are playing around with this horse and I'm just going to repeatedly back him until he comes good, which should be soon. Frustrating to back a horse that wasn't even trying but them's the risks.

    -3.00pts on the day.

    2:20 Haydock - Dahaam - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

    There's 8 runners currently listed to go to post in this extended 1m 2f contest, with many in with a chance. However, Dahaam may be worth taking another chance on despite disappointing effort at this course last time out. Formerly of Godolphin and Brian Meehan, this David Simcock trained 4 year old is yet to strike in a handicap but has performed well on a few occasions. He's still lightly-raced having only had 10 career outings (6 on turf) and he's now racing off a career-low handicap mark, which makes him look quite interesting. On his penultimate start over 1m 4½f at Chester, Dahaam ran a creditable 3rd in a similarly competitive race. That track probably didn't suit and he didn't have the best of luck in-running, but once in the clear, he stayed on well to run into the places.

    He runs off 2lbs lower today and any sort of improvement on that effort, around a track that should suit, will see him get into the frame. He weakened quickly last time out and wasn't given a hard time of it, but the race turned into a sprint and this horse doesn't have the gears to be competitive in a race run like that. The pace isn't assured here either and that's a worry, but the price negates that in my opinion. Dahaam is clearly a useful animal and has more than enough ability to play a part here. Jamie Spencer takes the reins and he knows this horse well, having ridden him on 5 occasions. Spencer has a 21% strike-rate at this course in the past 5 years and is riding exceptionally well of late, with 10 winners from his last 36 rides. He teams up well with any Marwan Koukash owned runners and with David Simcock's yard chugging along nicely, a big run could be expected here. Simcock is also making a 350 mile round trip to come here with his 4 runners and usually does well at the track. Small/medium stakes as there's many dangers and no assured gallop. This fellow could still run a cracker though and he's more than capable of getting involved.


  • Registered Users Posts: 878 ✭✭✭sonnky


    6th Pyro Unlucky man!:(


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Never had a hope dude. :( On we go! Crap racing today mind


    No luck with Dahaam. Ground may have went against him and none of the runners in his race, bar the winner (who made all), got involved. Disappointing effort to say the least but I still think he's a decent horse and very well handicapped. Going to keep an eye on him for a while but his last couple of runs have been less than inspiring.

    -2.00pts on the day.

    7:20 Haydock - Taurus Twins - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (Bet365)

    Plenty of prominent racers lining up for this 5f contest but Taurus Twins has the speed to burn them all off if he's on a going day. I backed him at 16's when he landed a hotter contest over this trip at Windsor and although he's 5lbs above that mark now, Dale Swift's claim brings him back to the same mark. Given that he's a very talented rider and exceptional when riding over sprint distances, there should be no problems for him on board this uncomplicated animal. A high stall usually pays dividends here, especially with front-runners, and this speedy 5 year old has landed an ideal sit in stall 11. I'm hopeful that he'll blast off in-front and nothing will be able to catch him. That's how things worked out for his last win, although there was an exceptional tailwind that helped him go on to break the previous course record. However, it's obvious that speed is his game and he's posted some good runs since, so there may be no better time to catch him again.

    Taurus Twins is a fairly consistent horse with a more than acceptable strike-rate, having landed 4 of his 25 career starts on turf, including a further 6 second places. He's yet to win at a mark above 72 but the riders claim leaves him effectively running off that mark and given the fact that he drops back into a C5 contest for the first time since winning a shade cosily at Nottingham in '09, he's bound to go well. He was drawn poorly last twice, the first time being a fine second over 5f at Catterick. He couldn't get to the front that day and never got near the leader, but it was a fine effort nonetheless. There was also plenty of money about for him that day and connections seem to think that he'll be capable of going in again soon.

    It was a similar story last time out, as Taurus Twins fared badly in terms of the draw, this time at Sandown. To make matters worse, he missed the break slightly and was held up towards the rear of the field, which isn't a position that he'd find ideal. He also failed to get a clear run at a vital stage but did make fairly good headway to come a 2l 6th, being nearest at the finish. This was in a race where many failed to get involved and it was a more than acceptable effort from a horse who wants to be racing towards the front end (stayed on very well up the steep hill which was encouraging too). He seems to be doing very well at the moment and despite having an exposed look about him, he's still only 5 years old and could be capable of more, especially considering how sprinters can find improvement out of nothing. This contest is most certainly not beyond him and the only worry I have is whether he's capable of lugging 9st 7lbs to victory. That's not exactly a huge concern but his overall profile suggests that he does best when carrying less weight against better animals.

    The course should hold no problems as Taurus Twins ran alright on his only start here, which was a 15 runner handicap. He only managed a 5l 5th but was racing on the "wrong" side (on the day) and won the race out of his group. The ground is currently listed as GS in one place and GF in another, so God knows what it's actually like (it was GS yesterday). This fellow has no problem with either, although he mainly races on a sounder surface. His two efforts on GS resulted in second placed finishes, including a 24 runner handicap at Ayr. Regardless of how the ground is, he should have no excuses in that department. His trainer, Richard Price, seems to have his runners in good knick this year and has a very good 5 winners -28 runners record here (18% SR, +£34 LSP). Dale Swift is 2 from 4 on board Price's animals, although all of those rides have come on my old favourite, Cheveton (inc. win over C&D). It's slightly interesting that he's now booked to ride another one of the stables horses and I think he's the perfect partner for this horse.

    Of the rest, Ballarina is running well but is never a 4/1 shot. She's been running in C6 handicaps on unconventional tracks and despite being in good form, her price is hilarious. She could well win but she's 8lbs above her last winning mark. Not for me anyways. Red Roar is another who is running alright but most of her form comes around places like Beverley and Musselburgh. She should have things run to suit and takes a big drop in class, but I don't think she's the most likely winner here. Definitely has place claims again. Tyfos was the outsider I was interested in, as he drops in class and drops in trip, which I think will suit. He has buckets of pace but is another who likes to force things and may not be suited by the inclusion of so much pace throughout. I definitely wouldn't discount him though and will have a tiny each-way saver. Taurus Twins is the one to be on though and 8/1 looks a cracking each-way price about him. I thought he'd be around 4 or 5/1 at most. He's speedy, talented, in good form and suited by conditions, so there's no reason why he shouldn't go well. He's got a top claimer on board and looks potentially thrown in here if putting his best foot forward. The ground shouldn't be a problem and a track like this is ideal. Medium each-way stakes and I'd take a guess that he'll be a lot shorter come race time. Plenty could go wrong though, but he warrants the utmost respect in a contest like this. Hopefully Swift sends him straight to the front and he shows them a clean pair of heels. He's more than capable of doing it.


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Got it into my head that it was a C5 contest. It's actually Class 4.


  • Registered Users Posts: 857 ✭✭✭thedini


    Hey Monterosso, keep up the good work.;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 176 ✭✭monaghanman10


    cheers for the tip.was 4s when i got him but happy out still


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Good buzz. :-)


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,300 ✭✭✭✭SteelyDanJalapeno


    Ya sexy beast!

    got on at 6/1!


  • Registered Users Posts: 34,169 ✭✭✭✭The_Kew_Tour


    I think you should get The Pricewise Job in racing post:)


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  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    haha, wouldn't go that far. :D Pity I'll never ever show a profit to SP. I always end up on steamers. +25pts to prices taken this season, -38pts to SP. Shows how important it is to take the prices.

    Cheers for the replies lads.

    Side note, thread reached 5,000 replies. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 18,584 ✭✭✭✭kippy


    x PyRo wrote: »
    haha, wouldn't go that far. :D Pity I'll never ever show a profit to SP. I always end up on steamers. +25pts to prices taken this season, -38pts to SP. Shows how important it is to take the prices.

    Cheers for the replies lads.

    Side note, thread reached 5,000 replies. :D

    Taurus Twins has paid for my car service - Cheers xPyro!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 4,210 ✭✭✭argosy2006


    This horse has been kind to you :P


  • Registered Users Posts: 453 ✭✭Denners.ie


    Do you have any idea what your win ratio is for horses who are 7/1 and under? I will work it out soon but I would think it is a crazy success rate, on the plus side of 50% at a guess.

    Well done today

    clapping.gif (Yes I did steal this from you :pac:)


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Cheers lads. Happy with how things are going now.

    I'll post the "form" of selections priced at 9/1 (advised) or less...

    1-4-4-2-0-1-3-2-4-4-5-2-6-3-4-1-3-3-1-1-5-1-1-2-2-0-4-3-2-6-1

    31 selections
    8 winners
    11 placed

    Not quite 50%. :(

    :pac:

    Attached my flat season spreadsheet to the post (not sure if it'll work, had to change format for it to upload and use Excel).

    Red = Drifter and/or Loser
    Orange = Price didn't move
    Purple = Steamer
    Green = Profitable bet


  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    That is some seriously colourful **** you've made there!

    Nice going :)


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    haha, I was seeing how many people would come back blinded! I get creative when bored. :pac:

    Cheers Nulty, hopefully the tipping app will be flying soon.


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    Good ol' Taurus Twins came through for me again, landing the 5f dash at Haydock. He made all of the running along the stand side and wasn't for catching. He was well punted from 8/1 into 4/1 joint-favourite and with Richard Price's yard going well, a good run looked on the cards. The softer ground brought out further improvement and it'd be interesting to see him run on it again, as his form on GS now reads 2-2-1. He's a cracking little horse and a great trier, so hopefully there's another win or two in him soon. Kudos to Dale Swift for a great ride.

    +20pts on the day. More of that please!


    2:40 York - Gala Casino Star - 1.50pts e/w @ 11/1 (PaddyPower)

    This is a wide-open 18 runner handicap and tough to get a grip of, but Gala Casino Star could give Richard Fahey, York's top-trainer, another victory at the course where he's got 71 winners to his name. This 6 year old animal was rated 90 in his prime and finally ended a losing run of 29 when landing the spoils at Hamilton on his penultimate start (beginning of May). The opposition probably weren't the best that day and only the 3rd has run well since (won). However, this C4 0-80 (4-16 in this grade) is most certainly not beyond him and he's only 4lbs above that winning mark having failed to run well last time out (valid excuses). With things much more in his favour and the reunion with Paul Hanagan, a big run can be expected.

    Hanagan hasn't been on board for a long time and Gala Casino Star is usually partnered with claimers. There's no doubting that he's still well-handicapped despite running under a rise in the weights and I think connections were messing about with him on the all-weather, as he never had ideal conditions. This time last year he was rated 88 when Hanagan was last on board, and now he's rated 73. He's also won over C&D from a 10lbs higher mark, and won easily too. His record around this trip (all within 9f) includes 4 wins from just 6 outings (third on other 2 occasions) and given that his overall record is 5 from 40, that's pretty impressive. He was also dropped back to a mile at Ayr last time out (also had first time cheekpieces - off now) and I think his handicap mark was being "protected". The return to York and fast ground should be a positive, and with no doubts over a good gallop, he should really make the frame at least. He's yet to win in a big field but his record in them ain't too bad. The key will be producing him late as Lee Topliss did at Hamilton and I see no reason why Hanagan won't be able to do that.

    Gala Casino Star has ran well on nearly every turf start this year, finishing 3rd in a couple of 11 & 20 runner handicaps before winning his penultimate start. He didn't run overly bad last time out but 1m is too short for him nowadays and he would of preferred a stronger gallop on quicker ground. They should go fast up front today with so many prominent racers in opposition and I expect Hanagan and his mount will relish this. He's not the strongest of travelers so there's a fair chance he'll be pumped along a fair way from home, but he's game and responds to pressure, which is all you can ask for. The long run-in and flat, galloping nature of the track will also suit and with ground conditions to suit, there should be no excuses. I think 11's are huge and this race should no be an impossible task for a horse who has seemingly found his form again, even though I think there's plenty more to it. He gets the nod though and is worthy of small/medium each-way stakes. Count Bertoni, Barren Brook and Ours were the next three I considered, but Richard Fahey's charge is taken to beat them all. Hopefully he will. There's also 4 places being paid as it stands.


  • Moderators Posts: 8,719 ✭✭✭x PyRo


    3:15 York - Ocean Transit - 1pt e/w @ 10/1 (VC)

    With the Richard Price yard in flying form and Ocean Transit being very unexposed over this sort of trip (on the flat), I think she holds every chance of getting involved here. She's a high-class hurdler who placed in a Grade 2 at the Cheltenham festival (done me out of a place that day!) and also performs very well in this code. I was at Haydock when she ran over 2m last time out and she finished a cracking 2 length 3rd behind useful stayer-in-the-making, Activate. Luck wasn't on her side that day as she got into a barging match with the 4th placed horse (who I backed e/w on course) and regardless of that, she put in a career-best performance in a fairly hot handicap. With pace virtually assured and quick ground to suit, there's no reason why this 6 year old mare can't get involved on what will only be her second start beyond 1m 2f in this code. Most of her outings on the flat have come around 5, 6 & 7f, so it's odd to see a horse like this being capable over such a distance.

    Ocean Transit will be partnered by Adam Beschizza, who is 1 from 1 on board her. He's a top-notch 3lb claimer and seems to be riding quite well this year. He's also exceptional over these longer distances and strong in a finish, which should come in handy here. Richard Price makes a 350 mile round trip to run this mare and his yard are performing wonderfully of late. 5 of his last 20 runners have won and a further 5 have placed, which is phenomenal form for a fairly small yard. With Ocean Transit likely to head off for a summer break soon enough, I think there may be no better time to catch her. She's never run here at York but the track is taken to suit and genuinely fast ground seems ideal, even though she's got plenty of form on slower surfaces (trainer waited with her for genuinely soft ground before). Given that she likes to race handy, her sit in stall 1 is ideal and she should get positioned nicely from there. She's definitely up to this level and has a nice racing weight of 8st 11lbs after Beschizza's claim is removed.

    Of the rest, I'd love to see La Estrella line up and run a cracker, mainly because he's had so much trouble with his front legs in the past couple of years. It would take some effort for him to win this off 86 though and I wouldn't be overly keen to snap up the 20's available. It'd make a great story if he could win though. Kazbow would also be very interesting for Luca Cumani if he didn't run so horribly bad last time out. That was his seasonal debut though but he just faded into nothing having previously looked more than useful on a couple of outings last year. This track should suit him a lot though and he's unexposed at the trip, so I couldn't rule him out for sure. Hardly banker material though. Descaro has a chance too but he needs about 5 miles to be at his best and Dark Ranger should find things tough under a penalty. Ocean Transit looks worthy of a small each-way bet and I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see her run a cracker. Not overly keen on backing the ladies against the men mind, hence the smallish stake.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 7,838 ✭✭✭Nulty


    Looking through your spreadsheet I noticed you backed Wildcat Wizard (Ponty) just before I did (Newmarket). He's a very interesting horse. I'm waiting for him to pop up in the right race. I was hoping he'd be going to Ascot tbh but no sign of him. Maybe later in the campaign unless something happened to him and he's injured.

    Break a leg tomorrow


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