PyRo's Horse Bets.

budgemook

Nice one man!

argosy2006

Day of profit nonetheless,

x PyRo

I couldn't like Canford Cliffs any more if I tried. He's absolutely amazing and proved today what a wonderful specimen he really is. He showed speed, a wonderful turn of foot and brilliant determination to overturn the brilliant Goldikova, a horse who I'm convinced is inferior to him regardless of what people say. It took Richard Hannon's colt a little while to get past her as she's tough, game and extremely talented, but he completed the job in a great fashion, winning a shade cosily in the end. First maximum win bet of the year landed and although the price wasn't great, the horse surely was. Delighted with that performance and I think he can be even better.

Barolo Top showed decent speed in the early stages of his race but got outpaced at halfway and never figured in the finish. He'll be a good horse for nurseries later on in the season and into the notebook he goes.

Plymouth Rock was disappointing in the extreme having been backed from 16's into 8/1. He never got involved and I think a combination of things went against him. There's a big staying handicap in him though and I'm not giving up just yet, even though he's cost me a small fortune as I've backed him numerous times.

+2.50pts on the day. Modest profit, but it's better than losing it all.

2:30 Ascot - Strong Suit - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (StanJames)

I rarely take prices with firms that don't offer BOG, but the 14's available for Strong Suit are surely much too big and won't last, even though this horse proved most disappointing on his 3 year old debut. However, on 2 year old form, he should hold every chance of hitting the frame despite carrying a 5lb penalty for having succeeded in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at this meeting last year. The Richard Hannon trained colt has always been held in high regard and after defeating Neebras (ran well yesterday) easily on debut over 6f at Newbury, this speedy son of Rahy tackled Group company on only his second career outing. He put in a stunning performance to justify favouritism in a competitive heat and showed his raw talent to get up an defeat Elzaam by a nose despite suffering plenty of bad luck in running. The horse he beat that day disappointed on his 3 year old debut too, but has since come out and won a Listed contest by an easy 6 lengths and is as short as 12/1 for the Golden Jubilee Stakes on Saturday.

Strong Suit disappointed in his following couple of runs as a 2 year old but didn't run too badly regardless. It's his only run so far of 2011 which is the basis of his 14/1 price-tag and given the amount of things that seemed to go wrong for him on that day, I feel it's best to forgive him that run and hope that his class returns as I expect it to. 2 year old form doesn't always follow on into the next season and whilst this fellow would give the impression that he hasn't trained on, connections believe that a recent (after the Greenham) wind operation could be the answer to their prayers (and mine!).

Strong Suit was a well-backed 9/2 shot when aiming to overturn Frankel in the Group 3 contest at Newbury. However, having acted up in the prelims and taken a fierce hold early on, he never had a chance of getting involved. He obviously had problems with his wind and had a tongue-tie on, but now that's off and he comes here to the scene of his greatest performance on the back of a wind-op, so if everything goes to plan and he bounces back to his usual abilities, 14/1 could potentially look a very stupid price. There's every chance he mightn't of trained on and doesn't retain his old abilities, but he has excuses for that poor effort last time out and should come back as a better animal. At his best, I don't think Strong Suit has too much to fear here. Codemaster looks useful but he's priced accordingly at 3/1 and wouldn't be for me.

Oracle only looked up to Group level last time out and may be flattered by that run, whilst I don't think Fury is all he's cracked up to be by connections, despite his obvious talent. The French horse could be anything but I'm not taking 9/2 about him, not a hope. Western Aristocrat looked a lovely, big type in the paddock when I was at Haydock, but he's never worthy of being half the price of my selection, regardless of his excellent connections. He could and should go well, but I think Strong Suit is seriously underestimated and shouldn't be much bigger than 6/1. He's got the talent, he's got the speed, he's got the scope to improve over this trip, he handles this track and he's likely to get his ground today. I fail to see how he won't go well, unless he's completely lost it. Medium each-way stakes at a price too good to turn down. Fingers crossed that he bounces back, because if he does, things could get rather interesting!

x PyRo

3:05 Ascot - Field Day - 1.50pts @ 25/1 (WillHill)

I really need to quit getting tempted by big priced runners but Brian Meehan's Field Day is a lot better than she's shown last twice and can overturn some of her recent form with the other runners here. This 4 year old filly was a more than useful 3 year old, landing a 4-runner handicap before gaining a most impressive victory in a C&D Listed contest, in which she won by an easy 3 lengths. A couple of her opposition that day were well behind, including I'm A Dreamer who's a 9/2 shot here, although she was hampered but still wouldn't of won.

David Simcock's runner has obviously improved since, but the way in which Field Day landed the spoils that day suggested she was potentially up to contesting some very useful Group races, and she duly did. She went on to finish a close up 2nd on her next outing, which was a soft ground Group 3 contest at Deauville. Next time out, she tackled Group 1 company in France again, this time she was a more than useful 4th of 11 in the Prix De L'Opera on very soft ground (when tackling older mares for the first time). Given the way she ran on ground much softer than ideal, I feel that performance can be marked up significantly despite being 8 lengths behind the leading duo, who were some way clear of the rest.

The main problem is the recent form of Field Day, as she's posted a couple of fairly disappointing efforts on her only starts this year. However, she could of been expected to come on for the first of those runs, which was over 1m 1f at Newmarket on very lively ground. Connections seemed to get stuck in as she went off a well-backed 5/1 co-favourite of 4, but never got into the race. She ran on well to grab 4th place in the closing stages but never had a chance of landing the spoils (took a fierce hold for a long time, possible excuse), finishing 8 lengths behind the impressive I'm A Dreamer in the process. I'm hopeful that the form can be turned around as this filly seems to take a while to come to hand and may improve for the recent outings.

The second of those runs was a Group 2 at York over 1m 2f, in which the pace was very, very slow. This didn't suit Field Day at all and she pulled hard for most of the race. When the pace lifted, she had no answer and was allowed to come home in her own time, being spared a hard race in the process. She's got form to turn around with the 2nd placed Sajjhaa from that race but given how things panned out, the form is pretty worthless anyways. The pace isn't assured here either, but the step back to a mile is bound to suit, along with the return to the scene of her greatest win.

Brian Meehan's yard were also in shocking form at the time of this filly's defeats and they're going a lot better now, having had 5 winners and plenty of placed efforts from their last 37 runners. Ryan Moore is booked and he's got a cracking 19% SR for this yard (93 runners, 18 winners, 20 places), including a 42% ROI. Moore will be capable of getting the best out of Field Day and I think we'll see a much improved animal here. 25/1 is much too big and I think her realistic chances lie around the 10/1 mark, even though recent form would make that price too short. Small/medium each-way stakes and hopefully she'll go well. A return to form would give her a great chance, as she's not lost her talents just yet I'm sure and recent stable form is a plus. They also expected her progression to continue this year, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see her come right at the third attempt. The previously mentioned I'm A Dreamer is a huge worry, but too short to risk.

OutlawPete

x PyRo wrote: »

I couldn't like Canford Cliffs any more if I tried.

Well tipped XP :P

x PyRo

It's something like that. :pac:

x PyRo

The Royal Hunt Cup - 4:25 Ascot

29 runners set to go to post in this massively competitive handicap and I'm going to chance my arm with a few runners here. Keeping it fairly brief as it's a race I could write about all day and still get it very, very wrong. I'm going to concentrate on some of the younger, unexposed types who have high draws, the first of which is a previous selection from Walter Swinburn's yard, Julienas. This 8-time raced 4 year old has run well on both occasions this year, finishing 3rd on each, including a ½ length defeat in a useful 15 runner handicap at Sandown. It's clear that a stiff mile suits this fellow and although there are stiffer miles than Ascot, this test should suit. He's a game and talented performer who likes to race on the front end, so the draw in stall 24 should ensure that he'll get a nice position and hopefully avoid any in-running carnage that may ensue. His yard are in decent form and Eddie Ahern takes over from Adam Kirby. The 18/1 price-tag on offer isn't half-bad and I think he's more than capable of running a big race.

The next selection is 50/1 outsider Greensward, who represents the same trainer as one of my earlier selections. Brian Meehan's 5 year old is better known for his exploits over shorter distances, but has a couple of efforts in big fields over 7f that would give cause for optimism with regards to him seeing out this trip. His only outing over 1m was over C&D but he paid for racing alongside a very strong pace and faded away quickly. However, a ride with more restraint could see him in a better light over this trip and I wouldn't be surprised to see him put in a bold bid here. His effort in a similar 30 runner handicap over 7f at Newmarket last October was encouraging, as Greensward finished a 2½ length 6th in the end, flying towards the death when meeting the rising ground. A stiff mile could bring out the best in him if they go fast and I think he's well worth a try at this trip. He'll need a lot of luck in running to be involved but has a nice sit in stall 29 and has capable 3lb claimer Louis-Philippe Beuzelin on board. He's got a riding weight of 7st 13lbs which is handy and goes on the ground too. It'll take a career-best effort to see him get involved, but with 5 places paid and odds of 50/1, he's worth taking a chance on. As I said earlier, the yards recent form is encouraging and Meehan seems to think he's capable of more progression, as he held onto him despite bringing him to the sales in the autumn. He's not a winner in waiting or anything, but could have a squeak at massive odds.

Last but not least, I'm going to give one final, final, final chance to Hacienda, a Mark Johnston horse who has lost all his form (I wonder!) and gets to run off his lowest mark in a long time. I backed this 4 year old last time out when he faded to nothing at Epsom, but it's highly possible that he just didn't like the track. His only visit here was a pitiful effort in which he was second last, but had a poor draw and never got a chance to give his running. With a plum sit in stall 26 and his bright early speed, I'm expecting that he'll get a nice position either beside or behind the leaders and may just run a bit better than he did last time out. I'm sure Johnston could find much easier races for this fellow but he was previously rated 96 and has run a couple of good races this year, so at least he's capable of running well. Silvestre De Sousa takes over in the saddle and it wouldn't be the first time that Johnston's had a shock winner from one of his "out of form" animals. This is his only runner in a handicap where he's had horses run well before and he's got a good one in here, even though recent efforts would suggest otherwise. With over £60k for the winner, I'd be surprised if this horse wasn't "always trying" and hopefully he'll be capable of keeping up to his work once asked to quicken. He's got talent, goes on the ground and is exceptionally well handicapped on his best form. The track should hold no obstacles and 50/1 looks a very nice price about him, even though it'll be tough to win this race. Hopefully he'll go well.

Selections -

Julienas - 1.50pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)
Greensward - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)
Hacienda - 0.50pts e/w @ 50/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)

x PyRo

5:35 Ascot - Blessed Biata - 2pts e/w @ 14/1 (VC)

I made a ten-to-follow list at the start of the season and William Haggas' Blessed Biata was top of the pile.

The following is what I said about her back in March -

"The first of my 10 to follow is a William Haggas trained 3 year old filly, who certainly hasn't hit her peak of yet. I had high hopes for her after her debut run over a potentially inadequate trip and I've even higher hopes for her now, especially given her excellent run in an extremely valuable Fillies' race. I actually backed and posted Blessed Biata up that day, at odds of 50/1, which she out-ran and was very unlucky not to finish in one of the four available places, or even win (may have won with a clear run). It was in the Tattersalls Millions 2 year old Fillies' Trophy, with a prize pot of no less than £300,000 and to say she ran with credit would be understating how well she done on only her second career start. She was held-up in rear for the 7 furlong contest and proceeded to run on extremely well in the closing half mile but was denied a clear run 2 furlongs from home and then again was found to be short of room just a furlong for home, before producing an impressive late run under pressure to finish 1.75 lengths behind the winner, Masaya. However, given her late thrust and finishing position, I'm of the opinion that she'd of landed the spoils with a clear run, and won me a lot of cash! It wasn't to be but she showed a good attitude under pressure and the fact that she ran so well on truly soft ground leads me to believe that there's a lot more to come, especially when she'll embark on her 3 year old campaign, likely to be starting in the middle of April.

Better ground and a step up in trip should see her show significant improvement and I was really hoping she'd be entered in the 1,000 Guineas but that hasn't happened so far, with connections eying up a charge at either the £150,000 Tattersalls Millions 3 year old Sprint over 6 furlongs or the £300,000 Tattersalls Millions 3 year old Trophy over 1m 2f, if current enteries are anything to go by. I'm not really sure she'll get the latter trip so the Sprint looks like the most likely avenue and she should be a decent price for that contest. Blessed Biata is out of an unraced dam, but she's out of the 1989 1,000 Guineas second, Kerrera, who was also blessed with buckets of speed and was very competitive at Group level over 5 & 6 furlongs, along with posessing the stamina to go a mile. Whether her grand-daughter is anywhere close to that level is yet to be seen but early signs are positive and she should make a cracking 3 year old.

I'm not one who knows too much about the effects of breeding and bloodlines but Haggas' filly is closely related (half-sister) to German 2,000 Guineas winners Dupont and Pacino, both of which were untried over sprint trips but proved to be top notch milers on the big day. They were both sired by the high-class miler, Zafonic, who has sired a lot of animals to be impressive 2 year olds (early bloomers). Whilst Blessed Biata is sired by American sprinter Mr Greeley, an improver at 3 (hopefully she follows suit) and sire of 54 Stakes winners, 24 Graded/Group winners and 10 of which were victorious in G1's. She's bred to have plenty of speed but could well have enough stamina for the Guineas, so it's a bit unfortunate that she'll be swerving that, even though connections obviously know a lot more about her than me but I think she could more than hold her own if the ground came up good, seeing as she got home so well over 7 furlongs on soft going. We'll probably never know how that'd pan out but there's many winnable targets for her this year and hopefully she'll have trained on and filled out for her 3 year old campaign, before going on to land some black type.

She didn't race until September of last year and had 3 runs in the space of 6 weeks, the last of which was a huge disappointment, so it's more than possible that she'll be a “backable” price first time up. I posted her up that day too, this time at 10/1 in a Listed contest over 7 furlongs at Newbury on soft. I had double my usual maximum each-way bet on her and was extremely keen on her chances, as were connections because she halved in price to go off as the 5/1 second favourite. However, she broke slowly and ran very flat, finishing an eased down 9th in the end, ultimately proving very disappointing and costing me a lot of cash! Blessed Biata didn't seem to get home on the ground this time (stayed on remarkably well on simlar going the time before) and didn't pick up at all, shaping as if she'd need better ground but certainly didn't run close to the level of her previous start. Every cloud has a silver lining and despite running poorly (wasn't given a hard time when beaten), that virtually assures she'll be going off at a nice price next time out and I'll be duly accepting it. We'll more than likely be collecting off her at some stage during the season and I've extremely high hopes for this filly, as do connections based on certain entries last season and this, so hopefully she'll live up to expectation. Good ground over 7f/1m on a flat-ish track should be ideal and early market indications should also be noted. Keep a close eye on this filly, she's going places."

---

Today she should get the decent ground that I think she'll enjoy and also gets stepped up to a mile, which should also suit. Given the way she finished in softer ground up the Newmarket hill, the test she'll face here today at Ascot should suit and I've no doubt that she'll go on to be a very useful animal. This is a Listed Handicap and Blessed Biata runs off a mark of 93, which should prove to be below her true abilities. I think she's got plenty of room for improvement and the quicker ground could help bring that out. How forward she'll be first time up is anyone's guess but Johnny Murtagh gets the leg up for a yard that boast a cracking record around here. Murtagh is also riding well and has an amazing 20% strike-rate at Ascot, including 37 winners at the Royal meeting. He's bound to prove a positive to this animal and I think she can go well here in a race that's not beyond her if readied. Medium each-way stakes as I think I'll be collecting on her sometime soon, hopefully today.

prospect

Greensward is a non-runner I'm afraid.

thesandeman

Strong Suit being mentioned all over the place. Lookin good ;-)

UrbanSea

Haha, I just knew you'd back Blessed Biatta

applehunter

Good Start to the day Pyro.

UrbanSea

Nice call Py.
Always thought he was a very attractive colt.

naughto

gud man pyro had 1st and 2nd in that race

Soarer

Back Strong Suit at 10's, and wouldn't have backed at all if it wasn't for Pyro!:D

Cheers head. Virtual pint for you!;)

thesandeman

WOOP!! We are off B-)

PEACEBROTHER

You my friend are simply amazing
Got him at 11s
Great pick and thoroughly deserved !!!:D:D:D

The_Kew_Tour

this is the second time I have backed your tips and first one wins.

If I could thank you hundred times I would. I got him at 10's but winner is winner..No matter what im up today now.

thesandeman

Youll get paid 11s Kew. Almost everyone is BOG these days.

budgemook

Jungle is Massive!

MikeyGorse

Followed you with Blessed Biata,could only get him at 8's with PP,definitely need to open up a few more accounts.

SteelyDanJalapeno

I love you Pyro!

Julie-anus!

x PyRo

el_greco

You are on a roll Pyro, well done!

Nuri Sahin

x PyRo wrote: »

The Royal Hunt Cup - 4:25 Ascot

Selections -

Julienas - 1.50pts e/w @ 18/1 (Bet365 - 5 places)

Wub you

SteelyDanJalapeno

quick withdraw!

thesandeman

Pyros found his Mojo :-D

Derek!

Pyro I think I speak for everyone here when I say your a legend

budgemook

Brilliant! Last weekend before pay day and all. Who came 5th in the 4:25?

UnitedIrishman

Well done sir, had Strong Suit and Julienas.

Pity I lost half my profits on Shumoos in the last one there.