PyRo's Horse Bets.

TheMilkyPirate

Fairly sweet on the chilli myself but have gone for teolane, could be kicking myself in 5 minutes but what harm.

Good luck.

PEACEBROTHER

Never got involved !!!! Somethin seemed a miss with him

x PyRo

There was nothing a miss with her, she just couldn't go on the ground. It happens, especially given that they're two year old's, and fillies.

Looking forward to tomorrow already!

budgemook

It seems that when going to back sweet chili today I accidentally backed samitar instead. Ha ha. Nice one. Either that or pp made a mistake

x PyRo

I picked the right races to oppose the short-priced favourites, although the only problem was that I picked the wrong horses to oppose them with. Sweet Chilli ran well below what I think she's capable of and barely went a yard on the ground. She's probably not up to that level anyways but should of done better if handling the conditions. She'll be one to keep an eye on when it's not so testing. Disappointing effort though.

Circumvent had everything to suit, as the rain left him with ideal conditions. He broke fast and got into the lead before traveling strongly until just after they turned for home. He set a decent pace but couldn't sustain it and faded within seconds after being headed. He's not good enough for Group races and he's too high in the weights for handicaps, so he'll be tough to place. I won't be backing him for a while anyways. Beachfire, who I backed last time out, went on to win with ease to add insult to injury. I wasn't convinced that he'd handle the ground but he loved it and flew through the field to score at 16/1. Pity I just didn't give him one last chance.

-5.00pts on the day. Could be worse.

3:05 Ascot - Poet - 1pt e/w @ 14/1 (Ladbrokes)

I'd imagine Clive Cox will be doing his rain dance at the moment, as the worse the ground is, the better chance Poet has. This front-running 6 year old seems to have come back as well as ever if judged on his efforts so far in 2011. To date, he's got 5 wins, 4 seconds and 6 thirds from his 23 racecourse outings, which shows how consistent he's been. His attitude is absolutely faultless as he's as game as they come and gallops all day. The only problem is he lacks any turn of foot and has to burn them off from the front if he's to land the spoils. He'll face plenty of challenges for the lead here but seems to be capable of running well alongside or just behind the pace, so that should prove no obstacle. The ground is the key, as he's only ever won on GS or worse, including twice on Heavy going. The more rain that comes, the better the price of 14/1 will look.

Poet comes here on the back of a disappointing effort over this 1m 4f trip in France. Apparently he had excuses so it may be best to draw a line under that effort and concentrate on some of his other form. First time up in 2011, Clive Cox's charge tackled the Group 3 John Porter Stakes at Newbury, a track where he's run well in the past. It was a fairly weak renewal of the race so he would of been expected to do well (strongly backed throughout the day). However, the ground was pretty quick and that's a complete disaster when it comes to this horse. He still produced a good effort in defeat, finishing a fairly close up 3rd in the end, sticking to the task well after being headed. Connections would of been more than pleased with that effort on only his second attempt at the 1m 4f trip.

Next time out, Poet tackled the Brigadier Gerard Stakes, a Group 3 race over 1m 2f at Sandown. The ground was officially GS, which is alright for him and he produced another cracking effort in defeat, going down by a length to the exceptional Workforce. The pair pulled 11 lengths clear of the field and it was probably a career best effort from Clive Cox's charge, who would of appreciated some more cut in the ground. He cut out all of the running and was 6 lengths clear until they met the rising ground, where the winners superior ability finally shone. Stoute's beast wasn't fully tuned up, but it was still a more than impressive effort from him despite beating only beating previous Group 3 winner Poet. That effort can be marked up as a sign of what this horse can do, and despite tackling a Group 2 now, he's not without a chance with favoured conditions underfoot. He's also very unexposed at this trip having only tackled it on 3 occasions and this will be the first time that he should get genuinely soft ground on British soil (over the trip). It could eek out any amount of improvement and the cheekpieces, on for the first time, could also help.

The main problem is the opposition, as Poet comes up against impressive Chester winner and former stablemate, Await The Dawn. He's priced up at 4/5 and despite being impressive last time out, I feel that price is hilarious. His only effort on soft ground was a visually impressive maiden win at Naas over a mile. He won by an easy 4 lengths, but beat absolutely nothing. Plenty of the runners have been running over hurdles since and the rest are bog standard on the flat. I don't think that's any sort of indication that he's up to handling soft ground with ease. That win at Chester was a Group 3 race and he scored by 4.5 lengths over Distant Memories. To put things into perspective, that animal was nearly 8 lengths behind Poet when he landed a Group 3 at Haydock on soft ground.

Distant Memories is also a much better animal on soft ground and with the going at Chester being GF, he got too close to O'Brien's colt for my liking. Next time out he was 16 lengths behind Poet at Sandown on much more favourable ground, so the form of the favourite's last outing isn't strong, plus the 3rd horse was poor at Listed level since. Await The Dawn could be a couple of leagues ahead of anything here, but the doubt over the ground leaves me thinking he's too short in the betting. He's also tackling an extra 2f at a much different track, although the trip should be no issue. He only faced 4 others at Chester too, and it wasn't a very hot contest to say the least. He'll probably win here but there's more than enough reasons to take him on in my opinion. Poet will love the ground, he'll love the track and he's likely to have a race run to suit. If he bounces back from his failing out in France, he could be a lively outsider and should be good enough to grab a place at least. Hopefully he will. Small each-way bet for me, 14's are too big.

x PyRo

3:45 Ascot - Definightly - 1.50pts e/w @ 16/1 (StanJames)

There's 17 runners currently listed to go to post in this Group 1 contest and Definightly might just have a very lively chance of upsetting the odds in what looks a tricky contest. This once frustrating type came into his own as a 4 year old, winning 4 times in 2010 and proving himself to be most progressive. The key to him is soft ground and the blinkers which were added in August. With soft ground pretty much assured for today's racing at Ascot, he'll have conditions to suit. Whether he's good enough to win a Group 1 is another story, but he's certainly entitled to take his chance and looks the liveliest of the Roger Charlton trio in a race he landed in 2001.

Definightly improved so much for the fitting of headgear and switch to prominent tactics when taking a 7 runner handicap over this 6f trip at Goodwood in August, a track where he had previously won at. That was off a mark of 88 but the visual impression he left was that of a potential Group performer, as he scooted clear unchallenged in the soft ground. A couple of weeks later, connections brought him back to Goodwood in an attempt to gain his 3rd victory at the track in as many outings. This time he tackled Listed company for the first time since finishing last in France as a 2 year old. A similar story unfolded, as Definightly set out to make all of the running, traveled supremely well, then put the race to bed within a matter of strides. The official winning margin was 6 lengths and he took another giant stride towards taking on the Group performers.

They decided to take a crack at the Ayr Silver Cup a week later, as Definightly was officially 10lbs well-in despite racing under an 8lb penalty. However, things conspired against him and between the ground being too decent for his liking and racing on an unfavourable strip of ground, he flopped. A few weeks later a trip to Ireland was on the agenda for another Listed race and despite traveling like a dream throughout, Roger Charlton's charge found one too good. It was still a very good effort though and more proof that the ground is such a necessity with him.

Another trip to France came at the beginning of November, and Definightly, who had been on the go for a fair while, finally got his chance to tackle Group company. The ground was described as "very soft" and given his love of that ground, it was surprising that he was deemed to be an 18/1 shot. However, he ran like an odds-on favourite, landing the spoils in the most impressive fashion. The leading pair pulled a long way clear of the 3rd placed horse, and that was the now Andrew Balding trained Dalghar, who's deemed to be a 10/1 shot here. My selection was a full 9½ lengths ahead of him and I see no reason as to why the form should be turned around (if the ground stays soft here), unless Definightly, who comes here without a prep, isn't race-fit. He did win first time up last year on unsuitable ground, so it's possible that he could be one to catch fresh.

Of the rest, Bewitched is more than useful but looks much too short at 4/1. She's got plenty of speed, talent and a wonderful turn of foot, but I can't see her price as being fair. Hooray is surely going to find it tough given that she's 3 year old filly. Her talented is undoubted but I think she's bound to find this a step too far for her. Elzaam seems to be a fast ground horse, as is Delegator and many more. I think Definightly has a lot to like about him and given his brilliant cruising speed combined with a lovely turn of foot, he's surely capable of getting involved on ground he'll relish. Olivier Peslier takes the ride and he's a good man for the big occasion. They should get a nice position from a great draw in stall 17 and one of the places is surely achievable at least. It'll be an awful tough race to win and 90% of the field could be given a chance, but the mud-loving Roger Charlton trained 5 year old should have no excuses. Small each-way stakes again.

x PyRo

4:25 Ascot - Colonel Mak - 1.50pts e/w @ 25/1 (Bet365)

This race is an absolute minefield but David Barron could have a lively contender in Colonel Mak. He's a fairly heavily campaigned 4 year old, having already seen the racecourse on 22 occasions. However, he proved most progressive when landing back-to-back handicaps between August and September last year. The first of those was off a mark off 88 in which he scored by a nose on similarly testing ground at Leicester. The leaders weren't coming back to him that day, so to see him get the verdict was quite impressive given the amount of ground he had to make up in the final furlong. Jamie Spencer produced him with a perfect run having switched him late on and David Barron's charge got his head in-front for the first time in well over a year.

Next time out, under a 5lb rise in the weights, Colonel Mak was assigned a seemingly tough task in the Ayr Silver Cup. He was sent off as a 33/1 shot under the guidance of Phillip Makin and being one of only a few 3 year old's in the field, he probably wasn't expected to do a whole lot. However, having raced prominently throughout, Colonel Mak came through to take up proceedings inside the final furlong and ran out a fairly convincing winner. Despite looking fairly exposed for his age, he'd found improvement for his masterful trainer and landed the spoils in this 25 runner race. He got another 7lb rise in the weights and flopped next time out at York, with no obvious reason for such a bad performance.

He's come back this year and put in a couple of modest efforts and one shocker, although he'd of been expected to need his first outing. That was probably the best run of the lot though, as Colonel Mak finished a 4½ length 10th of 20 under top-weight in a hot handicap at Doncaster. I think a stiffer test suits him, so it was a pleasing result considering. Next time out, it was a similar story, as he ran on late again having been held up in rear but never got involved. That was a 24 runner race over this 6f trip at Newmarket, although the ground was possibly too lively to see him at his best. His latest run, a couple of weeks ago, was the worst of the lot. Although that was over 5f at Musselburgh, a trip and tack which don't suit, plus he had an awful draw. There was a few quid about for him before the off, although it proved to be no positive at all. He ran a shocker, but there's plenty of reason to believe that things weren't to suit.

Now that Colonel Mak returns to a slow surface, his best trip and a stiff-ish track, there's no reason why he can't go well. He's got a plum draw in stall 24 and the 5lb claimer that was on board for all his runs this year is replaced by the talented Lee Newman, former Champion Apprentice. Newman is riding oh so brilliantly of late, with 5 winners from his last 17 runners, and having finally got some luck with regards to good rides, there'd be no better way to announce himself back on the scene. I think he's Barron's stable jockey now and although Barron has another more fancied (according to the betting) runner in the field, Colonel Mak could be the most suited to how things pan out here. He's got the speed, he's got the staying power and he's got the turn of foot to get competitive here and 25/1 looks a lovely price. The yard were out of form but had a couple of winners yesterday (both with Newman on) and hopefully that signals a return to form for their horses too. I was going to have a few punts here, with Hoof It, Cheveton and Nasri being the others I was interested in, but I'll just stick with the one and yet again, play small each-way stakes. This horse has the talent and should have things run to suit, so with more experience in the saddle and ideal conditions, he could go well. 25's look a good price and 5 places are being paid, so hopefully he'll grab one of them at least.

x PyRo

5:00 Ascot - Sharaayeen - 2pts e/w @ 8/1 (WillHill)

Another very tough race but Barry Hills' 4 year old, Sharaayeen, could be a Group horse in the making. He improved to no end when switched to more reserved tactics on his final 2 starts of last year. Before that, he had run well in the main, but just didn't seem to see out his races when racing up towards the head of affairs and he was beginning to get a little disappointing, despite shaping as if he'd make a nice horse when winning as a 2 year old. There should definitely be more to come from him this year and the fact that he held some fine entries in staying events suggests that connections clearly think he'll continue to improve. Given that he's so well built and is such a strong galloper, a step up in trip looks to be the long-term plan, but for now, 1m 4f over a track like this should prove ideal.

Sharaayeen proved most progressive towards the end of last year, finishing 2nd to Taqleed (who he re-opposes on worse terms here) at Newmarket before going on to land a handicap by an easy 5 lengths off a mark of 78, looking like a potentially classy horse in the making. It's arguable that he beat very little and probably true, but the way he done it was extremely impressive and bode well for the future. The handicapper upped him 13lbs in the weights and he was forced to go up in class and trip to find a suitable race. A return to Newmarket was the plan of attack once again but he succumbed a terrible ride from Tadhg O'Shea. When O'Shea switched him right from a poor position he proceeded to make relentless progress to take 2nd just a furlong from home, but he had done his bit and ran out of steam in the final half furlong. It rated as another career-best effort though and the horse got another couple of lbs from the handicapper, which was probably fair. A break was the order of the day after that.

Sharaayeen made a most pleasing return to action when just touched off at Newmarket once again. I backed him that day and he was sent off as a well-backed 9/2 favourite of 12. However, he just found one too good having traveled supremely and shown a nice turn of foot to boot. He was eventually run out of it in the final strides, losing to Times Up, a horse who has since won a Listed race by a more than comfortable 4 lengths. The form looks rock solid and although my selection is now 5lbs higher for finishing 2nd that day, his run of impressive performances may not be finished. I originally thought he'd be at his best on quick ground but the general consensus is that soft ground proves to be no obstacle to him. He did run that fine race on soft ground when given a poor ride by O'Shea and as he's obviously trained on well into his 4 year old campaign, it might be a positive for him, although that's pure guesswork. He looks like a Group performing stayer to me and must surely be capable of defying a mark of 98 if I'm to be proven correct there.

The Barry Hills yard are struggling for winners of late and that's an obvious concern, but Sharaayeen had a nice race 6 weeks ago and could be up to giving the yard their first Royal Ascot winner of the year with their last runner. He'll love the big field, as getting covered up seems to be key with him, so luck in running looks to be the biggest worry. He's a relaxed sort though and goes about his business well, so there'll be no problems with him getting too lit up. The draw in stall 3 is grand with regards to getting position and I'd expect to see Richard Hills, who rides the track well, drop him out towards the rear of the field. If they go a good enough clip up front, he's sure to be running on well towards the end. A place would be the least I'd expect for him if everything goes to plan and hopefully it will. Modun could be anything but looks too short at 7/2. Ryan Moore isn't exactly finding the winners easy to come by either, so hopefully he'll have another loser here. Life And Soul would be interesting if there was plenty of pace assured. He gets too lit up all the time and although he's got loads of talent, I think I'll leave him alone this time (backed him last twice). It'd be just typical to see him fly in though. Actually, I'm going to have a small saver on him just in case. A few others come into it but Sharaayeen has the talent and should enjoy this test, so hopefully he'll go well. 8/1 looks a good price and I'd say it'll be snapped up. Medium each-way stakes.

mailburner

got on definightly also last night at 16s ew
this fecker owes me plenty
todays the day hopefully

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

got on definightly also last night at 16s ew
this fecker owes me plenty
todays the day hopefully

ill never get the money back that fecker owes me and ive officially
given up on him now
just not good enough by the looks of it
might have needed the run i guess

x PyRo

He's good enough, just needs a bog to be at his best. The other side had the better ground and bigger pack, so he hadn't a hope with the way things panned out.

Doesn't bode well for Colonel Mak.

Something was amiss with Poet earlier too. Shite day of punting so far.

mailburner

thought the soft ground wouldve been perfect

don't see it ever winning at the highest level unless
they find a softish race for him abroad

time will tell i guess
frustrating to follow for me anyway

x PyRo

Doesn't matter how soft it is if they can't keep up with the other side (better ground over there apparently). He went off too quick as well. The French horse who raced on his side done amazingly well to come where he did. Would of been interesting if he had a low draw too.

Will be interesting to see how things play out in the Wokingham here. Colonel Mak is a huge price on betfair, so he's done for already I'd say.

x PyRo

Poor effort today. Poet ran no race at all and something was probably amiss. He had everything to suit, but you wouldn't think that by the way he ran.

Definightly showed bright speed but nothing else. He was drawn on the wrong side as things panned out (ground was worse there apparently) and faded into nothingness. Disappointing effort and he was probably biting off more than he could chew regardless.

Colonel Mak finished 3rd on his side but was drawn on the wrong end as it panned out. It was a decent effort though and hopefully there's more to come from him. Big fields seem to suit him, so it's a pity he wasn't drawn on the other side, even though high numbers had dominated before today. Frustrating!

Sharaayeen saw his chance blown at the start, as they went no gallop at all and he lacks a turn of foot in a race like that. There's some races in him though and hopefully he'll be a nice price next time out. He handles all ground and just needs to good toe into the race to be at his best. He traveled well today but when the tempo lifted, he dropped away tamely.

-12pts on the day. Disappointing, but it was still a great festival.


Stat Attack -

Overall Bank - 303.46pts (+203.46pts)

2011 Stats - +89.67pts

Bets - 128
Wins - 13
Placed - 31
Win SR - 10%
Staked - 350.00pts
Returned - 439.67pts
ROI - +25.6%

*Placed bets don't include the winners.

Royal Ascot Stats -

Profit - +75.88pts

Bets - 18
Wins - 4
Placed - 0
Win SR - 22%
Staked - 56.00pts
Returned - 131.88pts
ROI - +135%

Letyourselfgo

x PyRo wrote: »

Profit - +75.88pts

Class, well done.

x PyRo

Cheers dude, much appreciated.

---

Wasn't going to have a bet today, but I'm siding with this fellow again just in case he wins! Rehash of my previous write-up.

3:40 Pontefract - Shallow Bay - 3pts @ 6/1 (WillHill)

The in-form Walter Swinburn makes a 320 mile round trip to visit Pontefract with just 2 runners today, and I think he has a great chance in this competitive 1m 2f Handicap with the potentially very useful Shallow Bay. He's a progressive, lightly-raced type who looks to have a lot more to give, especially after returning this year with a couple of more than useful efforts in similarly hot handicaps. Whilst this won't be an easy race to win, this horse looks to have more than enough ability to go well at a track that should bring out the best in him. Some of his impressive form includes a 3l 2nd to a Sir Michael Stoute trained horse called Conduct. That horse sluiced in next time out in a very competitive 16 runner handicap off a mark of 85, and he looks sure to be competing at a high level once he returns to the race track. My selection looked to be running all over the field that day and just found the Sandown hill too much in the end, but was still clear of the rest. The form of the race is good though and he looks more than capable of defying a rating of 86.

Shallow Bay was done at 1.01 on seasonal reappearance (off 3lbs lower), when getting caught in the closing stages of a 1m 2f contest at Windsor. He seemed to steal a march on the opposition when slipping clear at the 3 pole, however, the lack of race fitness may have told in the end and the well backed favourite went down to a well-treated John Dunlop horse. That wasn't a bad effort though and at least confirmed that he had trained on well. Next time out, over the same trip at Newmarket, Shallow Bay was 7 lengths off the pace. However, the winner landed the spoils by 6 lengths and since ran a cracking ¼ length 2nd at Listed level (at Haydock when I was there), so the form isn't bad at all.

In time, Shallow Bay should get 1m 4f at least, but for now, the 1m 2f he faces here should suffice. The pace is likely to be good and if he can travel like he has on many an occasion, I think he'll relish the stiff uphill finish that he faces here. He got absolutely no luck in-running when tackling a similarly hot handicap at Sandown last time out and despite finishing in 12th position, he should of won the race. Under the guidance of Eddie Ahern, this animal was traveling all over the field but just couldn't get out to mount a challenge. Having waited patiently behind a wall of horses for a couple of furlongs, the pair finally got out when they met the rising ground at Sandown and were finishing very fast. I'd imagine they'd of grabbed a place at least but yet again, Shallow Bay met interference mid-run and was stopped in his tracks. He's worth taking another chance on here and with some luck in the race, I'm convinced he'll get involved. The only worry is whether this comes too soon, as that race was little over a week ago.

The ground is currently listed as being GF and although Shallow Bay goes on any ground, some rain wouldn't go amiss at all. Regardless of that, he's sure to have a good chance here and has a draw that should ensure a decent racing position. Kieren Fallon takes the ride for the first time and he's a very interesting booking. He's 1/3 for Swinburn and rides this course better than anyone. With the Swinburn yard hitting top gear now, their horses need full respect, and I think this fellow is overpriced and underestimated at 6/1. 4 of the yards last 6 runners have won and their course record isn't bad either, having had 5 wins and 10 places from 42 runners. It's the type of place that this horse should go really well at, as it tests everything that he's very good at. He travels, has a turn of foot and stays very well. He can also race on the front-end, which pays dividends around here usually.

The big worry is John Gosden's Dhaamer, as he's very talented and obviously in-from having run a cracker on ground more than quick enough for him at Epsom. If the rain doesn't come, he'll probably be pulled out though, and Shallow Bay will be enlisted as favourite. Even if there's a R4, 6/1 should beat the price he'll go off at. He also holds an entry in the John Smith's Cup at York in a few weeks, and to get in, I'd imagine he'd have to win this race. Similar comments apply to Gosden's runner, as he also has an entry in that race. This race should really be between the pair of them but I'll side with Walter Swinburn to increase his very impressive recent record. 6/1 is a great price based on how he shaped last time out and he's going to progress past his mark of 86 before too long. There's no reason why he shouldn't go well so I'll have medium win stakes on him. Hopefully he does the business.

PEACEBROTHER

Just Wondering Pyro what was biggest price winner you had in horses (single bet )

x PyRo

Biggest priced one I've backed (posted here too) was nearly 151/1, on Betfair. Won like an odds-on shot! Didn't have a lot on at that price but it was a tidy payday. Had more on at 33's with one of the online firms too. Pity I don't use Betfair prices for the thread. :pac:

Apart from that, there's been some others around 25-33/1+. Can't remember, but the one at Galway sticks out.

x PyRo

No luck on Sunday as Shallow Bay failed to give his running. He was completely unsuited by the stop-start nature of the race and although he had an ideal position turning for home, he was under the pump and making no impression. He's going to need a truly run 1m 2f to be at his best or even another couple of furlongs. He's definitely much, much better than that and I'm not giving up hope just yet. A bit of cut in the ground wouldn't go astray either.

-3pts on the day. Disappointing.

Keeping things fairly brief today.

3:50 Salisbury - Linnens Star - 1pt e/w @ 16/1 (VC)

Competitive C2 Handicap in the offing here with many useful types lining up. It may pay to side with the unexposed Linnens Star who represents the in-form Ralph Beckett yard. Having only had 8 career runs to date, this capable 4 year old looks to have a lot more to give. I reckon he'll be at his best over further than this 1 mile trip, but for now he may be able to get away with it. Salisbury is a fairly stiff track and the last half-mile is uphill, so the ability to get the trip is a must. He'll certainly get it but whether the race is run to suit is another thing.

Last time out, Linnens Star shaped quite well over an inadequate 7 furlongs at Newmarket. Despite holding every chance in the closing stages and being bang there with less than a furlong to go, he just couldn't quicken when asked. It's possible that the GF ground wasn't to suit against that calibre of opposition either, although he did win his maiden on a fast surface. However, it was a slowly run race in which he was able to keep up with the tempo quite easily, so with the emphasis on speed in the closing stages, he never really had a chance. It was a more than encouraging effort though and the handicapper also deems him worthy of a 2lb drop in the weights, which is handy.

It took Linnens Star a couple of outings to hit full stride last year and with this being his third run of this campaign, his match sharpness should be spot on. This race does represent a step up in class but he ran well at this grade last year over 7f on soft ground off a 3lb higher mark. I think he should prove good enough to win a race like this and hopefully it'll be today. Ralph Beckett hit a flat spot over the past couple of weeks but with 2 winners and a couple of places from his last 6 runners, his animals may just be running themselves into form. He's got a decent course record and comes down here with just this fellow today.

Jim Crowley is on board as he has been for 7 of this horses 8 runs and this is one of only a couple of rides for him at the track before heading to Kempton. The other would be a big outsider. Crowley rides the track well and should be able to get this fellow a nice position from stall 12. Some of the market leaders are vulnerable in my opinion and the lightly-raced Linnens Star could be the one to take them on with. Conditions will be fine, the track will suit and if he gets a good pace to run at (or even makes it himself), I think he'll run a good race. Leviathan is worthy of a lot of respect but I think he's too short to side with at 4/1. He's entitled to go well but finds it tough to get his head in-front, so I'll oppose. Ralph Beckett's charge is one that's worth keeping an eye on over the coming months, so I'll plump for him here. Hopefully he'll go well.

x PyRo

3:05 Carlisle - Ailsa Craig - 3pts @ 11/2 (WillHill)

16 runners set to go to post for this decent contest and last years winner, Ailsa Craig, looks to have a very good chance of following up. This one-time Richard Hannon trained mare looks to be running herself into form and now that she's on her last winning mark, she's sure to put up a bold bid to retain her title. Edwin Tuer got the best out of her last year, as this fairly talented mare won 3 handicaps and clearly benefited for the change of scenery. I don't know a lot about the trainer but his overall record suggests he's not half-bad at all and his animals are firing on all cylinders of late, so hopefully this will be another winner for him.

Being only a 5 year old, it's quite possible that Ailsa Craig isn't finished improving just yet. She won't have to if she's to take the spoils here and a similar run to that which seen her come a short-head 2nd to City Of The Kings last time out would probably suffice. That was over 1m 2f at Ripon on good-to-soft ground. She was only caught in the closing stages having taken up the running just over a furlong from home. She obviously stays well but this fairly stiff, galloping mile is ideal, especially on ground that she'll go on with ease. She's 2/3 here at Carlisle and although she's 6lbs higher than when winning this last year, she's on her last winning mark and put in a career best effort last time out. The signs are more than positive and there's no reason for her not to go well. Racing prominently in big fields also seems to bring the best out of her, so the draw in stall 3 should ensure she'll get a nice sit in behind the leaders.

Edwin Tuer comes here with his yard in fine form, having had 4 winners from his last 8 runners. His form in June reads ; 4-1-1-2-1, which is obviously very good and he's 3 from 5 at this course in the past 5 years. Statistically, everything points to a good run and it's clear that the horse goes well here, so hopefully she will do again. Tony Hamilton does well when riding for this yard and he's got 2 wins and 2 places from 6 outings on board Ailsa Craig. They get on well and with the horse likely to be hitting top gear on what is her 4th outing this year, she can be expected to run a good race. Of the rest, One Scoop Or Two (10/1) and the Roy Bowring trained West End Lad (25/1) were a couple who I was quite interested in too, but I'll just stick with the in-form trainer to find another winner here. 11/2 looks a cracking price and I'd be surprised if she wasn't backed in to at least 4/1. Medium stakes for me and hopefully she'll go well.

x PyRo

Poor day and I was unfortunate enough to pick animals who ended bring up unsuited by where they were positioned. First up was Ailsa Craig and she was a well-backed 4/1 favourite in an attempt to follow up her win in the same race last year. However, having taken (what seemed to be) a nice position in behind the leader before turning for home, she was positioned alongside the rail which didn't help. There was a bias towards the middle/far side of the track as there was better ground there (winner came widest of all into the straight) and by the time Tony Hamilton moved her out towards the better ground, she was spent. It's also possible that the race came too soon, as she had only ran a week before.

Disappointing effort all the same but I suspect she'll be back to her best if getting a few weeks off the track. She's got the talent to win another race off a similar mark and hopefully she will. Her trainer, Edwin Tuer, won with his only runner at the track. Pity I didn't back both of them given the recent stable form. He doesn't have too many animals, but he's a trainer worth keeping an eye on.

It was a similar story for Linnens Star as he raced stand-side in a race where those racing on the other side, and later down the middle, were favoured. He traveled extremely well towards the rear of the field though and was one of the last to come off the bridle, although he found nothing for pressure having made a bit of headway before weakening into 7th place. I think he lacks a real change of gear and could well benefit for a step up to 1¼m. He should also get some more leeway from the handicapper and is surely capable of landing a race off this mark, although a step back down in grade would be handy. He was flying a bit high today but shaped well enough to suggest he'll be hitting top gear soon. I'm not giving up just yet.

-5.00pts on the day. I'm missing Royal Ascot already!

3:20 Newcastle - Silver Rime - 1.50pts e/w @ 12/1 (WillHill)

With heavy rain likely, this very competitive C2 Handicap could go the way of Silver Rime, who clearly enjoys getting his toe into the ground. His run last time out, at this course, was less than inspiring but it was over 6f (first attempt) and he just doesn't have the speed to be competitive. He stayed on past beaten horse that day but was still 17 lengths off the pace in 7th place. Now that connections step him back up to a mile, he should have things run to suit and will relish the extra distance. The main worry is Linda Perratt's recent form, which is very poor, but I'll pass over that given the odds.

Previous to disappointing last time out, Silver Rime ran a cracking race when coming a fast-finishing 3rd of 12 at this track over 7f. He was only 1½ lengths off the pace that day despite encountering GF ground and although he handles those conditions, he's never won on such quick ground. The form of the race shouldn't be too bad either, as Leviathan was ¾ of a length behind him and won yesterday from a 2lb higher mark. It was a much improved effort from Linda Perratt's 6 year old, as he had previously ended 2010 out of sorts having had a fruitful campaign beforehand. He's now only 3lbs above his last winning mark, which was a comfortable success at this course (7f) and with Phillip Makin back on board (gets on well with the horse), the signs are positive.

Silver Rime is now into the fifth season of his career and although he's a 6 year old, he's still quite lightly-raced under optimum conditions. A relatively stamina testing mile on softer ground is what he wants and that's what he gets today. He's never run over the Newcastle mile and wasn't stopping on both occasions that he faced 7f at this track. I think he'll relish the extra distance here and assuming they go a decent clip upfront, he should be getting involved come the closing stages. Phillip Makin has a very good record when riding for the Perratt yard and he's got an exceptional record on course. He's also won on board this horse before and has an exceptional talent in the saddle, so hopefully he'll show that here.

The opposition are no mugs at all, with the likes of Tiger Reigns (bit high in the weights), Kiwi Bay (hard to win with away from Redcar) and Tartan Gigha (seemingly out of form) all lining up. Big claims could be given to Prince Of Dance, who I've backed on numerous occasions. He's talented and will be suited by conditions, but he's let me down so often that I don't want to risk him any more. He's attractively handicapped though and moved nicely last time out before running out of steam, so 9/1 does look a nice price about him. He's a bit of a liability and is probably best left alone for the time being. This race is also a lot hotter than the race he encountered last time out. Collateral Damage is another who'll relish conditions but with most of his races being won at speed orientated courses (compared to this) and his price having shifted from 18's into 10/1 already, I'll take him on too. Silver Rime is the one to be on as he'll love conditions, goes well at the track and has shaped as if coming back to himself on his opening couple of runs this season. His run last time out is best ignored and taking it out of the equation, he's never a 12/1 shot here. 8/1 would be fair and 6's wouldn't be unrealistic. I think he should go well here and I'll play small/medium each-way stakes.

x PyRo

3:30 Warwick - Go Nani Go - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (WillHill)

Another tough race to get to grips with but if any rain comes down at Warwick, Go Nani Go will surely prove to be overpriced at his current odds of 20/1. His recent form is unspectacular since he joined the Ed de Giles team but having only raced on 12 occasions he's surely capable of defying this career-low handicap mark of 75 (11lbs below peak rating), assuming he's in the mood. He was previously a decent sort in his 8 outings for Bryan Smart and one he held high hopes for, but they didn't materialize and he stood little racing at all. However, he ran quite well on his opening pair of starts for his new stable and although he's flopped twice since, I think another chance can be taken as he should really appreciate this speed testing track.

Go Nani Go hasn't won since his debut as a 2 year old, over 3 years ago. Originally, he was being talked up as a potential Royal Ascot contender but he ran poorly second time up (4 runner race on quick ground, took fierce hold), in a race that probably decided that he wasn't up to taking on some of the better 2 year old's. He only had a couple more outings in '08 and ran poorly on his only start of '09. 2010 was more encouraging as he wasn't beaten further than 3¼ lengths in any of his 3 starts but once again, failed to get going. He's obviously had some sort of problem and hasn't lived up to expectations nor had as many outings as he should, but he's had 4 outings in as many months this year and may be coming to hand finally.

Go Nani Go has done the majority of his racing on quicker surfaces, but his overall profile suggests cut in the ground would be no harm. The ground is currently decent and the potential rain is no sure thing. However, if it does lash down, he's sure to have favourable conditions at a track that will suit him perfectly. The odds make it a bet worth taking a chance on and I think he'll get that elusive win sometime this year, hopefully today. His run last time out is probably the main reason 20/1 is available, as he faded away very tamely. That was over 6f at Windsor and a combination of chasing the winner (who set a very good early pace) and running on very lively ground at that track took its toll, as once he felt the pinch, he had nothing more to give. It could be a similar scenario here if the rain doesn't come, as this race has plenty of pace angles. He does have the pace to lie up with them though and will hopefully finish off his race better than he has done of late.

Go Nani Go's run over 5f at Windsor in April was encouraging, as despite being drawn poorly and racing from the rear, he finished off his race well in a contest that favoured front-runners (strong tailwind). The winner, my good friend Taurus Twins, has won since and overall the form looks decent. My selection is now 5lb lower, running over a furlong further (which I think will suit) and likely to be fitter for having had a few runs this season. If he's ever going to cause a shock, it could be now. Ed de Giles is 1 from 1 at the course, having had a 12/1 winner here ten days ago. I know absolutely nothing about him so I'm not even going to pretend that I do. Pat Cosgrave come here for just this ride before heading off to Leicester and he seems to be riding well of late. It's worrying that he's 1 from 52 at the track, but having had a further 8 seconds and 6 thirds, the stats look worse than the actually are. He's a capable jockey and just had his first Royal Ascot winner (in a Group 1), so confidence will be high and hopefully he can pass that on to his animal today. Of the rest, Tyfos was interesting, as was Westwood, although he'd definitely need rain to be at his best. Go Nani Go seems to be capable of running on any ground, and although the potential rain would be a massive help (IMO), I think he's worth taking a chance on regardless of the ground. Hopefully he'll go well and small each-way stakes for me at 20/1, which looks much too big.

x PyRo

Another poor effort yesterday as neither selection managed to get involved. Silver Rime raced on the wrong side throughout and despite looking as if he'd win the stand-side mini-race, he faded into 2nd of the 5, 9th overall. It was an advantage to race with the main pack and I think this run can be forgiven. He's well handicapped and will be one to fancy again soon, preferably if the stable were in better condition.

Go Nani Go didn't really go at all, finishing 9th also. No rain came for him and if anything, the ground quickened up. He was held-up early on and never made any headway when asked to quicken, so it can only go down as another disappointing run. If he gets some cut in the ground, I think he'll be very capable of going close off his current rating, especially at a speed testing track. He's a lot better than what he's shown to date and I think I'll pursue with him for a while. Being from a relatively small stable, he's likely to be a big price more often than not and hopefully he'll hit the jackpot soon.

-5.00pts on the day and normal service has resumed. Hopefully there's another winner on the way.

3:25 Doncaster - Overrule - 2pts e/w @ 11/1 (PaddyPower)

Brian Ellison couldn't have his string in better form of late and he looks to have another good chance with Overrule. This dual-performing 7 year old is exceptionally well-handicapped on his old form and comes here on the back of a relatively improved effort having failed to shine on his opening couple of runs this year. He cost $190,000 as a yearling ($60,000 as a foal) and had a career-high rating of 91 when trained by Jeremy Noseda (reached 90 for this yard). He'll be running off 76 today with an exceptionally talented 5lb claimer on board, so he's potentially thrown in here if reproducing his old spark. With the yard in such cracking form, there may be no better chance to catch this fellow.

It's exactly 2 years to the day since Overrule last tasted victory on the flat and although that sounds like a long time, he has only run on 7 occasions since. That win was a 5 length demolition job of a 15 strong field at Carlisle and from a 3lb higher mark. Chasing a solid gallop on fast ground seems to be what he's in need of to be at his best and whilst the gallop is far from assured, the ground should be quick enough for him. The 1m 6½f trip holds no worries and he's run well on both occasions at this track. The lack of any real pace has to be a worry but Mark Johnston's Perpetually has made the running before and likewise with Luca Cumani's Kazbow, although the pair of them are happy enough to sit in behind the speed too. I still think the 11/1 price-tag makes it a risk worth taking and if he gets a gallop to run at, he should go well.

Overrule was very poor on his opening couple of runs this year (easy to back) but shaped a lot better last time out when tackling an inadequate 1m 2f at Newcastle (also easy to back). Whilst on paper, the 8¾ length 9th of 12 doesn't look a great performance, but he was only hitting stride inside the final furlong having failed to pick up on the back of a very steady pace. I believe it was a much more improved effort on what he had previously shown and with a further half-mile to tackle here at a track that is more suitable, there's plenty of cause for optimism. Whether he's good enough to win this nowadays is another thing but he is thrown in here on old form and even on the couple of efforts he put in last year (only raced twice on the flat during 2010, ran creditably both times).

In the past fortnight, the Brian Ellison yard are running at a 33% strike-rate having had 9 winners from their last 27 runners. There's no better time to catch their runners and Dale Swift looks a solid booking. He's had 3 wins and 2 seconds from his last 5 rides with the yard, which is obviously impressive form too. He's been on board this fellow before and takes off a very valuable 5lbs to leave Overrule carrying just 8st 7lbs. Carrying that weight, off this mark, at C4 level means he warrants a lot of respect and I'm sure he's capable of going close. The yard make the trip to Doncaster with just the one runner and I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong market move for him here. His recent outing suggests he's coming back into himself and I think he can go well here. The opposition are no mugs though, with plenty being well-handicapped and capable on their day. Montparnasse (11/1) was one I quite liked and Bollin Greta (14/1) wouldn't be without claims either. For various reasons, not least value, Overrule seems to be the one to take a punt on here and I think he's worthy of a fairly decent stake. If he improves for the step up in trip as I expect him to, a place would be the least one could hope for. The big worry is the pace, but he's never an 11/1 shot and I'll happily have medium each-way stakes on him.

x PyRo

7:25 Newcastle - Ancient Cross - 3pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

Competitive C2 5f Handicap in the offing here and with plenty of speed on, Ancient Cross should be capable of adding to his win record at a track where he goes well, albeit without winning. This talented and most progressive animal has a very poor strike-rate for a horse of his ability, having only managed victory on 3 of his 37 career outings. However, having a further 10 seconds and 7 thirds, it's clear that he's most consistent. He's progressed from a career-low mark of 63 in 2009 to be rated as a 95 animal now, and one who looks capable of being better than this mark. The way he travels through his races is sublime and he's capable of getting involved in races from 5f to a mile. Although his finishing kick often leaves a lot to be desired, but it isn't for the want of trying. The ground today may just help that.

Ancient Cross been called plenty of his names in his time, as he doesn't finish off his races as you'd expect, but he does try hard and just needs expert handling to win. Graham Gibbons gets on very well with him and although he has let him go too early on occasion, he was the man who guided the horse to an impressive win in an 18-runner field at York last month. He showed a more than willing attitude to take over the running and hold off the cavalry in behind having traveled wonderfully yet again. He's up another 6lbs for that win but shaped as if it's not a mark beyond him when finishing a 1l 3rd behind Medici Time last time out, again at York (off this mark). As usual, he traveled supremely but Gibbons let him into the lead a bit too early and he couldn't hold on to the winning position towards the end. It was another gallant effort though and rates as a career-best, so the horse is still going the right way despite constant weight rises and age. There should still be more to come.

With testing soft ground and a stiff track here, I think you're going to need to side with a horse who stays further and definitely goes on the ground. The Mick Easterby trained Ancient Cross fits the bill in this regard too and he has solid form at this track, ranging from 6f to 1m. In his 7 outings at this course, his record reads ; 4-2-4-4-3-4-5 (Gibbons only ride here was the 2nd) and he's never been beaten further than 4 lengths here. This will be the first time he encounters the flying 5 furlongs at this track and given how well he did at the speed orientated York track in May, I think this trip at this testing course will be right up his street. He'll have to be moved from that sit in stall 11, as it isn't ideal, but with so much pace to run at, he's sure to be tanking along in behind them assuming all goes well. I just hope that the pace gives way and he doesn't have to go chasing it, as that wouldn't end well. Gibbons will hopefully let him go in the last ½ furlong and he'll scoot to another well-deserved victory. It's a pity that it probably won't pan out anything like that but he's more than capable of winning this and he's by far the best horse in the race (regardless of ratings). Whether he'll be able to show it and win is another thing, but I think he should be the favourite.

Yard form is a bit of a worry, as Mick Easterby has gone 20 runners without a winner and there's only been a single place in that time. Previous to that, they were going alright and Ancient Cross has no worries with regards to recent form. The Easterby/Gibbons combination has proved to be most fruitful in recent years, with their 16% strike-rate and 40% ROI being most impressive. Gibbons had a lean spell over the last while but results have picked up of late, including a win and a second here yesterday. Hopefully he'll be adding to that recent upturn in form with another win here. Former selection Confessional lines out here and although he has form on softer ground, it wouldn't be enough to suggest he can perform to his best off this sort of rating. I think he's opposable on that basis and 8/1 looks skinny.

Racy should have a race run to suit and looks open to any amount of progression, but with all of his form being on a quick surface, I'd rather take him on too. Brian Ellison's Mon Brav could find things happening too quickly for him, although the stiff track will help. He's another former selection of mine but I just don't think he's as favoured as today's choice. He's talented though and in-form, so warrants respect. Claims could be given to a few others too but I think that Mick Easterby's Ancient Cross is the class horse in the race and overpriced at current odds of 9/1. I'd mark him down as the 5/1 favourite (at most) if I was the odds compilers and he's worthy of medium win stakes. I would go each-way usually but I think he's got a fairly solid chance of winning if following through with the inevitable strong travelling effort that he produces time after time. Hopefully he will do so again and kick away from them when popped the question.

x PyRo

8:40 Newmarket - Chain Of Events - 3pts @ 6/1 (Bet365)

When Neil King has runners on the flat they always warrant respect, and that comment applies to the in-form Chain Of Events, who looks a massively improved performer since coming back for his 4 year old campaign. Having originally cost 85,000gns as a yearling, this one-time Barry Hills trained animal (raced 5 times, sold for 18k gns) only managed an average maiden win during his 2 & 3 year old campaigns. However, having returned in May at Newmarket (Rowley course), on the back off a winter break, Neil King's charge took advantage of a career-low handicap mark to land the spoils in an average C5 handicap by 3½ lengths. It was the style of the victory which was most impressive, as he traveled supremely throughout and put the race to bed within a couple of strides, only needing a light reminder to settle proceedings.

Similar comments applied for the next time Chain Of Events went to the racecourse, as once again, he traveled with supreme authority over 1m 2f at Sandown (hit 1.13 in-running). He could only manage 2nd place in the end, beaten by a horse I had backed. However, the steep uphill finish at that course possibly blunted his finishing effort and he couldn't hold on having taken the lead a furlong from home. It was a good effort in defeat though and represented a similar level of form as when winning on his previous outing. I selected him next time out when he ran at Windsor, on the basis of the speedier track being in his favour. 2nd place was to be the result again as Neil King's charge found another just that bit too good. It was a very good effort though and is rated as a career-best. I'd imagine that the speed test caught him out mid-race (did travel well though and found for pressure) as the winner stole a march a couple of furlongs from home and now that he returns to a stiff track, he could go one better.

Chain Of Events is up another couple of pounds for those back-to-back seconds and although he's on a joint career-high mark, he's fairly unexposed having only had 15 career outings. There's also a fair chance that he'll be getting his favoured quick ground today and that could help see further improvement. His win here at the other course was on quick going, as was his maiden win, so the faster it is, the better (it seems). He handles all ground though, so it wouldn't be a worry if it lashed down, although that looks unlikely at the moment. The horse also has decent form around here in the past and given that he looks a much improved animal this year, he could get into the winners enclosure at the fourth time of asking on the July course. Hayley Turner hops back on board for the first time since winning on this fellow last month (Eddie Ahern on last twice) and she's riding quite well of late. She also has a fine record on course over the past 5 years. The King/Turner combination is 4 from 24 with a 35% ROI, so they seem to be a decent partnership, albeit from a limited amount of runners. The yard are in good form this year too.

There's a fair chance they'll go a decent clip here and that'll suit Chain Of Events, as he travels so well when getting into full stride. He's sure to have things run to suit and given his recent form, looks overpriced at 6/1. It's a tough little heat though and plenty could be given claims, including Ivan Vasilevich. He's only a 3 year old but comes here in-form having won 3 races already this year. However, I think he was flattered last time out having managed to dictate terms from the front and he shouldn't get to do so here. 4/1 looks skinny and at the moment, I don't think 7lb claimer Lewis Walsh is very good in the saddle. He has won on this fellow before but that was from a 10lb lower mark and although the horse has progressed since, it could be tough for him today. He's also 12lbs worse off with Black Pond (beat him by 1¾l with Walsh up) and that one's a 14/1 shot here. I think his current price isn't justified at all and wouldn't be surprised to see it ease out considerably (last run was on the all-weather too).

Indian Valley shaped well on her return last time out and although she's a decent type, she will have to find significant improvement for the step up to 1m 2f. Plenty of rain wouldn't hinder her chances either, but at the end of the day, both of her career wins were in claimers. 6/1 looks skinny, but new yard (debut LTO) could unlock further improvement. Lord Theo goes well here but he doesn't go well fresh and looks too short at the prices too. Overall, I think Neil King's Chain Of Events could be open to further improvement and could well strike again. He's 6/1 at the moment and I'd be surprised if he wasn't backed. The inclusion of one of his stablemates is interesting and that one was massively gambled on before, so who knows what's planned. I'll stick with the one who's currently favoured in the betting and I think he's worthy of medium win stakes. It's not really worth my while going each-way at this price and hopefully he'll hit the holy grail.

x PyRo

Ancient Cross drifts to 11/1 and hammers home. Gerrrrin!

Derek!

x PyRo wrote: »

Ancient Cross drifts to 11/1 and hammers home. Gerrrrin!

Lovely stuff Pyro well done

sonnky

Duchess Dora won on Satuday!

x PyRo

Had a few no-bet days for various reasons but I'm back in action now, and hopefully there's another winner for me in what has been a brilliant June. Stats et all will be updated after Thursday.

The first of last Friday's selections, Overrule, ran a solid race to finish in 5th position having been unfavoured by the stop-start gallop. It was a much better effort though and he's ready to win again soon, so I'll be keeping my eye on future engagements. Disappointing that I didn't get a return from a fairly sizable bet, but I'm confident that the money will be coming back soon.

The second selection, Ancient Cross, was subject to zero support and drifted out to 11/1 on-course. However, the consistent and strong-traveling sprinter put in a stunning performance to land the spoils with relative ease. He traveled well, as usual, before putting the race to bed with an impressive turn of foot. He was never for catching and landed a nice 3pt bet for me in the process. He's going to be forced up in grade soon I'd imagine but he's clearly thriving and the way he moves through his races gives plenty of cause for optimism at a higher level. +33pts from a 3pt bet at 11/1.

Chain Of Events, my last selection, ran a modest race having been punted into 9/2 favourite. I see no obvious reason as to why he didn't continue his good run of form so it was most disappointing. He had everything set up to suit but just wasn't good enough on the day. There's still another race in him off his current mark I reckon and I'll keep an eye on him.

+26pts on the day. Happy out!

3:30 Catterick - Orpsie Boy - 1pt e/w @ 18/1 (VC)

Being a constant fast-finisher over a certain trip doesn't mean they'll definitely get further, but I think Orpsie Boy should relish the return to 7f, despite having won all of his races over 5 & 6f. Ruth Carr's inmate was formerly a very useful type and was rated 102 in his prime. Now in his twilight years as an 8 year old, it's possible that he doesn't have a whole lot of wins left in him, but with 55 of his 63 career efforts being over shorter than this trip, he's not overly tried at this distance. Also, this will be his sixth start for the yard, having previously run all of his races for Nick Littmoden, and it's possible that Ruth Carr could still find some more improvement from him yet.

Orpsie Boy disappointed last time out in a 20-runner handicap over 6f at York. However, he's probably a better animal when going around a bend, as his form would indicate, so the return to Catterick should be no bad thing. He has previous experience of the track having finished 5th of 8 over 6f here on debut for this yard last July, and once again he was flying at the death. I think the extra furlong at a speed orientated track will be right up his street and he's pretty much a sure thing to see out the trip, so it holds no worries. All he wants is a solid pace to run at and fast ground - the former is virtually assured and bar any significant rain, similar comments should apply to the latter. Whether he's good enough to land a competitive race like this, at his age, is debatable, but there's no doubting that he's well treated on plenty of his form down the years.

Orpsie Boy usually goes well fresh and showed that once again on seasonal debut, where he was a fast-finishing 5th of 14 in a competitive 14 runner race at Haydock. I don't think the track is exactly what he wants and the return to a sharper test should suit, even though York obviously didn't go as planned last time out, although that is a fairly galloping track. This place suits those nippy, short-striding types and he seems to fit the bill quite well. It's not that he's a winner-in-waiting or anything, but he's showed enough to warrant a lot of respect here and 18/1 seems to do the opposite. The yard know the key to him having got him to victory at the second attempt last year and should be capable of finding him another nice race off this mark soon, so hopefully this is it.

Ruth Carr couldn't be having a better time of it lately, and despite having a terrible run on the all-weather through the winter months, her training prowess is really shining through at the moment, as many of her well-handicapped animals are winning or running well. In the past fortnight, from a total of 25 runners, Carr has had 4 winners and 5 seconds, which is outstanding form. Today, Carr books course-specialist jockey Silvestre De Sousa, which seems to be a sign of decent intent. He's never been on board this fellow before but boasts a fine record when riding for this yard, having had 11 winners and 26 places from 81 rides on board their animals. His course record is phenomenal, as he's got 40 wins and 42 places from just 194 rides. Overall, that's a win-rate of 21% and he shows a gigantic LSP of £137 here too.

There's no better man to have on board at this tricky track and De Sousa should prove to be a massive plus to Orpsie Boy. It'll be a tough race to win, or even place in, but this horse is more than capable and should have everything run to suit. Dazeen (7/1) and Pelmanism (6/1) would be the others I'd have an interest in but Ruth Carr's veteran is a much more attractive price at 18/1. I'd rate him to be worthy of a shorter price than that but due to the toughness of this contest, I'll just play minimum each-way stakes. Hopefully he'll go well and notch up another win for the in-form Carr stable.

x PyRo

hahaha, it won!