PyRo's Horse Bets.

UnitedIrishman

Just looking at the entries for tomorrow whilst working and noticed that tomorrow marks the one year anniversary of one of my biggest punts on one of your selections - Corsica @ 9/4 - in the opener of the July festival. Here's hoping for the same success this year. Even if it isn't, that day paid for quite a few losses I've had!

x PyRo

They were the days mate! Would be nice to get a couple of winners during the meet this season. Just need to find horses to go on the track now. Best of luck.

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Ladies Best was shocking. He finished last and was under the pump along way from home. I won't be backing him again, unless he shows something soon. Terrible effort, not much else to say.

-2.00pts on the day.

2:25 Newmarket - Glencadam Gold - 1.50pts e/w @ 25/1 (WillHill)

19 runners go to post in this competitive handicap and whilst it's tough to oppose the Varian trained favourite, Glencadam Gold looks to be a nice horse in the making. It's not often that a Henry Cecil trained 3 year old with a profile like this fellows would be available at 25/1, but that's the score here. The general belief is that he will excel over staying trips and the 1m 2f trip that he faces today could be inadequate. The Newmarket July course is quite stamina testing though and it could be a sufficient test for him, assuming they go quick enough up front (which is very likely). He's got a nice cruising speed, a decent turn of foot and will enjoy conditions today, so the price looks all wrong. He does come with his quirks though and disappointed last time out, so 25/1 could look right after the race. I'd still take a chance on him grabbing one of the available 4 places and hopefully he'll go well.

Last time out, at Royal Ascot, Glencadam Gold tackled the King Edward VII Stakes over 1m 4f. That's a Group 2 contest and it was run on softish ground, which he just didn't seem to move well on. The majority of the field pulled hard as the pace wasn't great early on. My selection for today's race was one of those to race keenly and ended up running a shocker, as he was virtually tailed off in the end. A couple of the field, who were miles ahead of them, re-oppose here but with quicker ground, a stronger gallop and a more suitable track, I'm fully expecting Cecil's charge to get a lot closer to them. It'd be very harsh to judge him on that effort alone and I'm convinced a big handicap awaits this horse, even though he has proved to be very awkward in the past.

Previous to disappointing last time out, Glencadam Gold was improving with every run. He didn't make his 2 year old debut until October of last year and when he did, he put in a decent effort in a soft ground maiden over a mile at Nottingham. He was beaten 6 lengths by his stablemate but still managed to come home in 2nd. It wasn't a run that'd set the world alight but it took him a long time to hit top gear and it was fairly eye-catching considering it was his first outing. Next time out, on a sound surface at Redcar over a mile, Glencadam Gold made no mistake when sent off as an odds-on favourite in a 16-runner maiden. He didn't beat a whole pile but put in a workmanlike performance to score by an ever increasing 2¾ lengths. After the race, he was said to be a horse who'd improve for the experience and should make a good 3 year old.

Glencadam Gold was put away after that and didn't comeback until April of this year. A competitive and traditionally useful handicap was assigned as his first task for the season, this time over 1m 2f at the Rowley course here in Newmarket. Tom Queally, who was on board for the first time, settled him towards the rear of the field and began to make headway a long journey from home. Once put into contention, the horse quickened very nicely to hit the front before getting found out by the uphill finish. It's possible that the lack of race fitness went against him but I think he was produced much too early anyways. He doesn't seem to like it when put into the lead and he was probably content to come home just a half-length behind the winner.

It was a similar story next time out at Sandown. Glencadam Gold was slowly into stride and looked to have a huge task on his hands when turning for home, as the early pace wasn't great. However, he motored into contention once things quickened (relished the uphill finish) and was only let down by a combination of wandering around under pressure and holding his head high. He just didn't seem to want to go by the leaders but connections said he sulked with the first-time tongue-tie being on board. Whether that's the true reason or not is beyond me, but he really should of won that race, even though things probably weren't run to suit him. Dominant was the unlucky horse though, as he was unable to get a run before being hampered. He has since come out and won impressively, so the form looks more than decent. I don't think Cecil's horse is as good as that fellow, but Roger Varian's runner should be up to competing at a very high level.

A few weeks later, Glencadam Gold was returned to Newmarket and tackled 1m 4f for the first time. There was only 5 runners lining up but it was a fairly competitive contest nonetheless. With the tongue-tie off, he made no mistake when asked to pick up proceedings and despite idling in-front (and holding his head high), he scored by an easy 2¼ lengths from a useful type in Hawaafez. Henry Cecil's charge traveled supremely throughout and once again, showed a nice turn of foot to put things to bed. Those two attributes give cause for optimism now that he's dropped back to 1m 2f and with a likely solid pace from the off, he should have things run to suit. It'll be no easy task to win this and despite being 6lbs higher than that win in May, I'd of thought 95 was a workable mark for him if one passes over his run last time out.

Mijhaar was one of the horses who was mile ahead of him at Royal Ascot and looks exceptionally well-handicapped. However, if the rain doesn't come for him and the ground doesn't slow down, he may not have conditions to suit (has a high knee action). 5/2 in a field like this just isn't for me and I'd oppose him no matter how good I thought he is. He's a Group class horse running in a handicap off a mark of 96, so he's obviously going to be fancied, but there's plenty of useful types here. Seelo could be a nice horse too and shouldn't be 20/1, but he looks like one for races over further, as he seems to be paceless. He'll be one to keep a close eye on though, as there's potentially a lot more to come too.

Loads more have claims but Glencadam Gold is overpriced for a yard in good form of late and he's a horse who has a lot more to come. He's awkward, possibly ungenuine and has plenty of quirks, but there's no doubting that the talent is there somewhere. This could be one of the first times that he'll have a race run to suit and 25/1 does look very big. If he came here on the back of that win here at the Rowley course, he would probably be around 10/1. There's plenty more to come from this fellow and if it all came together here, he could get involved. I'd like to see him produced quite late, as he's stopped when put into the lead or asked to go by in the past and that's not ideal. He's had 4 runs this year though, so he should have learned enough by this stage. I don't like quirky horses though, so it's a small-ish each-way bet for me. Hopefully he'll go well.

3ndahalfof6

GL sir interesting pick I will be firing at this 1.

x PyRo

Disappointing stuff from Glencadam Gold. He traveled fairly well but was outpaced with ease and could only manage a distant 12th. There's a fair chance that he's only up to defying that mark over longer trips and being related to some strong stayers, his future lies over further. The ground wasn't to his liking either and his turn of foot seemed to be non-existent. Poor effort though but one to keep an eye on.

-3.00pts on the day.

1:20 Newmarket - Hezmah - 2pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

Plenty of unexposed, potentially progressive types lining up for this C2 Fillies' Handicap over 7f and chances could be given to many. However, John Gosden could hold a strong hand with £90,000 purchase Hezmah. This well-related 3 year old filly didn't see a racecourse at 2, possibly due to her large frame causing her to be a bit backward. Despite having no experience when tackling what seemed to be a decent maiden in April, she knew her job well and scored by a ready 2¼ lengths over 7f at Newbury. That was on fast ground and whilst today's conditions could be a fair bit slower, there are signs that it may not inconvenience.

The way Hezmah traveled on debut was impressive and she showed a good turn of foot to put things to bed, although it took a little while for her to hit full stride and shake off the runner-up. It's a different proposition today, as she faces a much stiffer track, but it should suit as the way she galloped out to the line first time up was impressive. The ability to see out the trip is essential around here, but it seems like she'll have no problem in that regard, it's just a case of whether she's good enough to win off a mark of 87. I think she should be though and John Gosden is sure to have her firing on all cylinders in an attempt to win again.

The basis for an 8/1 price about Hezmah is down to the fact that she failed to impress second, and last, time out at Ascot. That race was only 12 days after her debut and represented a step up in trip to a mile. She traveled well throughout and moved into contention quite nicely, although she didn't handle the bend too well. Once put asked for an effort, she didn't find a whole pile and ran a bit green before fading into 4th place. That wasn't the strongest of contests but with so little time between her races, it was no surprise to see this inexperienced filly perform below her abilities. Now that she's freshened up with a break of just over 2 months, I'm expecting to see her follow on from that impressive debut run.

John Gosden has his yard in great order of late, as 7 of his last 33 runners have won. He's got a 20% strike-rate at the July course in the past 5 years and the Gosden/Hills partnership have 5 wins, 4 seconds and 2 thirds from just 23 runners here. I'm not a fan of the jockey at all but he was on board this filly for both of her runs and will hopefully give her a good ride. He also rides the course fairly well, although that's surprising as the amount of horses who seem to get unbalanced under his control is shocking (even at easier tracks). Getting unbalanced around here happens quite a lot and I'd be hopeful that it won't be an issue with Hezmah, as she seems to be a nice, fluent moving type. The ability to handle the slower ground is an unknown and fingers crossed that it won't be an issue. Of the rest, Sweetie Time and Instance would be the only other runners I'd consider backing. John Gosden's filly looks to be the best value at 8/1 though and I think she should be a bit shorter. Conditions will hopefully be alright, the track should suit and she'll be freshened up nicely on the back of a decent break. There's a lot more to come from her and hopefully it'll start here.

x PyRo

1:50 Newmarket - Dozy Joe - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Boylesports)

It's hard to make any sense of this race but Ian Wood's 3 year old, Dozy Joe, could have a chance at fancy odds. This consistent and progressive colt hasn't run a bad race since his debut as a 2 year old. Whilst he wouldn't be the quickest or most talented of the field, he's a great trier and often finishes his races well. This is the first time he'll be facing a stiff 6 furlongs and with a likely rapid pace to run at, I think everything will pan out to suit. Whether he's good enough is another thing, as a mark of 89 is towards the higher end of his abilities. There could potentially be more to come though, as he's lightly raced (like most here) and I'll happily take a chance at odds of 40/1.

Many of today's field ran in the valuable Bond Tyres Trophy at York, which is run over the same trip as this race. Dozy Joe also lined up and finished behind plenty of today's rivals. A 5 length 11th of 20 was all he could muster but once again, his best work was done at the finish. That track places a lot of emphasis on speed and the pace didn't collapse at all, so it may not be as modest a run as it looks on paper. With this track putting more of an emphasis on stamina, he should be running on late when those racing upfront begin to flounder. His tendency to get outpaced in truly run races will always leave him vulnerable in a contest like this, but he'll have more time to hit top gear at this course and hopefully his willing attitude could help him get a well deserved victory in a top race.

Of the rest, Steps is likely to be favourite and comes here on the back of a couple of wins this year. Whilst he looks good on what he's done to date, this race represents another step up in class and he's now 12lbs higher than winning on his penultimate start. I think he's underpriced at current odds of 8/1 and I'd prefer to take him on. He's also upped in trip and a truly run, stiff 5 furlongs may just suit better. Plenty of guesswork involved and although he could be good enough, I wouldn't make him favourite. I backed Swiss Dream last time out when she ran a good race in that contest at York. This track should suit a lot more but I'm not keen on backing something that'll be towards the head of affairs in a big field. She'll be there to be shot at and with plenty of pace elsewhere, things just mightn't go to suit. She has a chance though. Lexi's Hero is too short at 9/1, St Augustine looks more suited to speed tracks and Forjatt just doesn't look that well handicapped.

I'm bound to have just dismissed the winner somewhere there! However, there's enough reason to hop on an outsider here and I think I'll get a run for my money with Dozy Joe. He's ultra-consistent, seems to be improving (based on good run first time out in 2011) and is likely to be suited to how things are run. His effort last time out can be written off as a race run like that on a speed track just isn't to his liking. He should love Newmarket and has Mickael Barzalona on board for company. He's an amazing jockey and is still riding out of his skin. It's a fairly interesting jockey booking for Ian Wood, although it might just be a spare as most of this fellows former partners are riding elsewhere. Regardless, there's no better man to have on board and this is the first time I'll have backed one of his rides, so hopefully it's a lucky one. The horse has enough talent to run into one of the 4 places that are available and it would be a deserved success if he could somehow win this. It's unlikely though and probably won't happen, but 40/1 is too big and a minimal each-way bet will do no harm.

x PyRo

5:20 Newmarket - My Freedom - 3pts @ 7/1 (WillHill)

Another tricky big-field handicap to solve here but My Freedom could well be the answer to the equation. This lightly-raced Godolphin colt looked every inch a smart performer when running out a convincing winner on debut last August and whilst he has been beaten favourite last twice, he's had valid excuses for under-performing. That debut run was over 6 furlongs at Nottingham and Saeed Bin Suroor's charge traveled, quickened and ran on like a horse going places, even though he was a bit green in the process. The thoughts were that he'd improve for that run and whilst he disappointed second time up (last run in 2010), it was mainly due to racing too keenly and in snatches. Dettori, who was on board for the first time and is back on today, didn't give him a hard time and that effort can be forgiven (only beaten 2¼l anyways). He cost a princely €260,000 and is a well-related sort who should really have more improvement to come, so his only run this year has to go down as most encouraging.

On seasonal reappearance, just a couple of weeks ago, My Freedom lined out in a 7-runner handicap at Newcastle over this 1 mile trip and whilst 2nd place was all he could muster, things didn't pan out to suit. The winner, Weapon Of Choice, was allowed an uncontested lead and set an average early gallop. He quickened things from the front and eventually stole the race under a fine front-running ride from Silvestre De Sousa. My selection broke slowly and despite getting back into a decent position under the hands of Ted Durcan, he wasn't close enough to be favoured by the way the race was run. He did travel exceptionally well though and was squeezed out at a vital time when making headway on the bit, so it was encouraging that he managed to close all the way to the line, eventually going down by just ¾ of a length. Also, that was his first outing for around 10 months, so race fitness should also be increased and he's be entitled to come on for it.

Newcastle is a fairly testing track and that seemed to suit My Freedom. This is his first outing at the galloping, undulating Newmarket July track and it's a place that should suit him perfectly. He handled both decent and easy ground when encountering them, so conditions should suit regardless of whether the potential rain materializes or not. Both of his best efforts have come in small fields, so the ability to handle a 19-runner contest is unknown, but at least Frankie Dettori will have plenty of cover for him and we shouldn't see a repeat of his final start of 2010, in which he pulled like a train. The pace should be strong too, and that's bound to help. He travels so well and seems to have a nice turn of foot, so everything should be run to help him utilize his strengths.

His trainer, Saeed Bin Suroor, had a slow start to the year but with 5 winners (24 runners) in the past fortnight, things are picking up a bit. He has a cracking 24% strike-rate at this course and Frankie Dettori has a similar strike-rate, so they clearly get the best out of their animals here. It's a place that should suit this horse and if he gets switched off and travels as well as he has done previously, there's no reason why he shouldn't go well. There are too many dangers to list, but Dhaular Dhar would be the only one I'd be remotely interested in back here. It should be a tough race to win, but 7/1 about My Freedom looks too big and I'll play medium stakes on him. He's open to any amount of progression (mark of 86 looks very workable) and assuming the race doesn't come too quick, he's bound to run a good one.

Soarer

Best of luck with your selections today boss.
July's a bit of a comedown from the heady heights of June so far, but there's plenty of time to catch back up.

Gonna do the Euromillions this evening, just in case!

Crowie13

Pyro,
I noticed Orpsie Boy (3/1) won again yesterday, any particular reason you didn't pick him? It was only after he won I realised I had backed him at 12's a few weeks ago after you picked him.

x PyRo

I don't back horses that won last time out unless I think they're nailed on. Didn't fancy him enough for the price to be worthwhile. Especially given his overall profile. He's not one who you'd expect to follow up under a penalty. I also hate backing horses who reappear very quickly. It can take too much out of a horse and they flop big time.

Quite simply, it's not my thing and repeatedly following horses who won for you last time out will lead to heavy long-term losses. I don't want that!

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Hezmah traveled like a dream towards the head of affairs in her contest and she looked a sure thing to fight out the finish. However, when she met the rising ground and the jockey said "go", she said "no" and didn't pick up. More reserved tactics, an easier track and faster ground should see her to better effect. She's definitely one to keep on side and will be winning before too long.

Dozy Joe ran a fairly solid race but never got involved. Those racing handy had an advantage and things just weren't set up for my selection. He made modest headway at one stage and looked capable of stealing a place, but in the end, he was a fair way back. I've no idea if I'll side with him again but I probably will if he continues to be available at big prices. He'll win some day this year, even though he's on a tough mark. Those who I mentioned and avoided didn't win, so that's about the only positive to be taken out of the race.

Now for the one who got away. My Freedom was subject to strong support and was sent off as the 4/1 favourite (backed at 7/1) in his big field handicap. He traveled like a dream and took things up going so easily, but once struck with the whip, he veered right, then left, then right again. That cost him a couple of lengths at the very least and he was collared on the line by a fast-finisher. He lost out by a matter of inches and that's the difference between a 17pt profit on the day and a 7pt loss.

Absolutely gutting, as he was the best horse in the race (traded at 1.02 also) and inexperience was the only thing that beat him. The amount of speed he has is wonderful though and I don't think he'd be out of place in a big sprint, even though he was running over a stiff mile today and got it well. Producing him later would of been ideal and it's just a pity that he didn't like the whip on the day. This fellow will go on to bigger and better things, but the cat is well and truly out of the bag now, so getting a price about him mightn't happen for a while. Heartbreaking stuff.

-7.00pts on the day. Shorter write-ups for Saturday as it's going to be hectic with plenty of bets.

2:20 Newmarket - Commissar - 2pts @ 10/1 (Betfred)

A 7 furlong, Group 2 race for 2 year old's kicks off proceedings today and Commissar could be a very lively contender for Godolphin. The basis for his 10/1 price-tag is a disappointing run in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot last month, and whilst it was a terrible effort, he had a sound excuse. He was sent off as a well-backed 8/1 shot in the 23-runner field and given how things panned out, the draw in stall 6 was against him. Frankie Dettori positioned him in mid-division on the far side but once the groups merged at half-way, Al Zarooni's charge was running down what was probably the slowest strip of ground on the track. He wasn't given a hard time of it when beaten and although it was a shocking run, much better can be expected today.

Previous to that, Commissar was an impressive winner over 5f at this track, albeit on the Rowley course. He was trained by Paul Cole then (in May) and looked every inch a top-class juvenile when routing his rivals over 5f, which is probably an inadequate trip for him. The form of the race hasn't worked out too well but the horse won by an easy 5-lengths and it was impressive enough for Godolphin to acquire his services. That race was only a couple of months ago and whilst the Royal Ascot flop is fresh in the mind, his previous run suggested that he was a very talented horse. The return to a much stiffer track on quick ground should suit and breeding suggests that this longer 7 furlong trip will be ideal.

Fort Bastion is too short in the betting for me to get involved with him. He ran well to come 2nd in the Listed class Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot over 7f, so he's one of few in this race with experience over this trip. However, that was on genuinely soft ground and how he'll go on a quicker surface against this opposition at a stiff track is an unknown, so 2/1 is too skinny. He's entitled to go well but I feel that Commissar looked more impressive when winning that maiden at the Rowley course. Mahmood Al Zarooni has his string in great form and Frankie Dettori rode a winner and a couple of seconds on his return from suspension yesterday. This horse could bounce back to form and 10/1 looks much too big. He traveled so well on his penultimate start and quickened nicely too, so there's bound to be more to come, especially over what is, potentially, a more suitable trip. His run last time out can be ignored and I'm quietly confident that he'll run a big race today.

x PyRo

2:55 Newmarket - Mont Agel - 1pt e/w @ 12/1 (WillHill)

Tough race to get to grips with but Mont Agel looks interesting now that he tries 7 furlongs for the first time since making his debut. Michael Bell's charge is lightly-raced having only lined out on 10 occasions and he was highly tried at both Listed and Group 3 races. Overall, he's unexposed in handicaps and this is only his fourth outing in one. A truly run 7f at a stiff track looks sure to suit and despite failing to win since his second career outing, which was in a maiden, this fellow has plenty of talent, more than enough to go close here.

The main piece of form that gives Mont Agel a chance here is his 2nd to the winner of this race last year, St Moritz. That was a Listed handicap back in May, run over a mile at York. In the end, Michael Bell's 4 year old went down by just a head, and just couldn't peg down the exceptionally game winner. It represented a career best effort for my selection though and a return to something like that form would see him go close here. He even had previous favourite for this race, Dance And Dance, in behind. The overall form is solid and 12/1 is overstating his chances here.

Mont Agel ran poorly since, in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot, but the draw went against him so the result was half-expected. It can be forgiven quite easily and if you pass through it completely, he comes here with a very live chance. The track should suit, the trip on the back of a true pace will suit and his draw in stall 5 should prove to be a decent one. Michael Bell comes down with just one runner and he should have this fellow spot on for today. After that second at York, Bell said he expected Mont Agel to cope with a rise in the weights and said that there will be more to come. The only worry was that he said it would come on an easy surface, so how he'll go on the likely quick ground is up for debate. I still think he comes here with a lively chance and small each-way stakes will do no harm. 4 year old's do well in this race, so the others I was considering were Shamandar and Fireback, but Bell's runner looks the best of the lot and I'll take a punt on him. Hopefully he'll go well.

x PyRo

3:35 Newmarket - Hitchens - 1pt e/w @ 40/1 (Bet365)

David Barron has previously said that he thinks Hitchens could cut it at the top level and I think he's worthy of a chance here. He has raced on 36 occasions and although he wouldn't be expected to still have improvement in him at this stage, a career-best effort was achieved on his penultimate start. Barron brought his talented 6 year old over to The Curragh back in May to contest a Group 3 race and whilst it wouldn't be form that entitles him to go well here, he won the race quite impressively. Fran Berry was on board that day and he waited patiently for a gap on board this battle-hardened sprinter. Once he got a clear run, he picked up impressively and won going away at the stiff Irish track. He's relatively unexposed at stiff tracks and I think this place will suit ideally, so there could be an outside chance of him getting involved.

Delegator is obviously talented and should go very, very close. However, Hitchens was just 1½ lengths behind him in the Duke Of York Stakes at York in May, before he won the Group 3 race in Ireland. Barron's charge just couldn't sustain his effort as long as the leading trio could and he had to settle for 4th place in the end, despite getting alongside the leaders in the final furlong. The way he traveled into things gives cause for a lot of optimism and if he can be waited with until the last moment, he may have a chance to utilize his nice turn of foot. The faster the ground gets, the better and it was soft ground and a poor draw that ruined his chance in the Golden Jubilee at Royal Ascot last time out. A line can be put through that effort and we should get a chance to see the real animal here.

The pace should be rapid and the ability to stay right to the line will be essential. Hitchens is a real trier and his solid attitude will come in handy here. He's got an equally hard trier on board today, as the in-form Silvestre De Sousa hops back on board. He's got 3 places from 3 rides on board this fellow and does well when riding for David Barron. It will take some effort for this 6 year old to land the spoils here but I don't think there's a lot between the top sprinters and surprise results are always a possibility. Dalghar and Regal Parade were the others I'd consider at a price but David Barron rarely leads me astray. I think he's got a lively outsider here and if the ground quickens up sufficiently, 40/1 could look a huge price (70.0 on the exchange, lovely!). He could come nowhere or he could run a cracker. Small each-way stakes for me and I wouldn't be one bit surprised to see him in the money. 1/3 odds for a place also.

x PyRo

2:30 Ascot - Mon Brav - 1pt e/w @ 22/1 (Bet365)

£31,125 for the winner of this competitive sprint handicap and I expect Mon Brav to relish the return to a fairly stiff 6 furlongs, even though his handicap mark makes things tough. Brian Ellison can work the oracle to great effect with other trainers castoffs and he has done so with this fellow too, as he's put in 5 solid efforts from 5 runs since joining the yard. 2 of those were wins on his first couple of outings for the yard, coming off marks of 75 & 81. He has had valied excuses for the pair of lesser efforts to date and overall, this horse seems to be going the right way despite having a slightly exposed look about him.

Mon Brav runs off 87 here but has a fine 2nd place to his name in a big-field handicap at Doncaster last month when rated 2lbs lower. He was beaten a length by Dungannon and meets that runner on 3lbs better terms. Andrew Balding's charge is a 10/1 shot, while Brian Ellison's is a 22/1 shot. I just don't think that's right. My selection performed below his abilities last time out but that was over 5f and I think he's a 6f horse, so the return to this trip is a positive for sure. The track will suit and the ground poses no issues. Whether he's good enough is the biggest worry. I think he could be.

Connections got stuck into Mon Brav last time out, as he was a well-backed 4/1 favourite. They obviously thought the trip was no problem for him and whilst he does have 4 wins over the minimum trip, I think he needs 6f to win off this mark. The slightly stiff Ascot track and 6f trip will be much more to his liking and I really think this mark is workable, even in a contest like this. Sean Levey, a talented 3lbs claimer, is booked for the ride and his form on this fellow reads 1-1-2. They get on well and could enhance those fine figures here today. Of the rest, previous selection Lutine Bell has a chance and so does Racy, but Ellison's 4 year old could have more to give and looks the value call at 22/1. I've no idea if stall 1 will prove to be a good draw but at least he'll have pace to run at, which he needs. Small each-way stakes again and this is one I expect to run a decent race.

x PyRo

5:30 Ascot - Addictive Dream - 3pts @ 13/2 (Bet365)

Another tough race, like them all today, and the one I like is Walter Swinburn's Addictive Dream. This fellow owes me nothing after I backed him when he won on his penultimate start but the manner of his victory really suggests that he could be up to winning off this mark of 98. He missed Royal Ascot but was seriously fancied for one of the big handicaps and despite running below his abilities last time out, a first class 2 handicap win could be coming his way. Recent stable form is a big worry, as they're not firing too well and that's the only thing holding me back from going all in on this bet, as I think he should be significantly shorter in the betting.

The race Addictive Dream won was a very useful contest at Ripon and it has been advertised well since. Despite racing on what seemed to be the wrong side (was miles clear of the rest in his group), he won by an easy 2 lengths off a 7lb lower mark. John Fahy hops on today and takes off 3lbs, so he's effectively running off a mark of 95, which looks very workable. The return to 5f is an interesting move, as I previously thought 6f would be his trip. However, the 5f at Ascot is stiff enough to suit him and he travels so well. He's got the speed, turn of foot and ability to land the spoils, it just depends on whether he puts it all in as he has shirked the issue on occasions before.

Last time out, Addictive Dream fell victim to a relatively poor Jamie Spencer ride. In the end, he couldn't quicken when seeming to have a great chance but he ran into trouble mid-run and that possibly put paid to his chances. Before that, he traveled very well and looked the likely winner. It was a race he really should of won but it's the reason he's a 13/2 shot here and I'm quite happy that he lost last time out. There are a couple of similarly useful types in the field but if this lightly-raced 4 year old gets into a nice rhythm, he should prove to be hard to beat. He's got enough talent to progress even further and I'd imagine he'll be subject to strong support throughout the day. 13/2 is a price worthy of medium stakes and I feel he should be around the 3/1 mark. It's not an easy race by any means, but he's more than up to winning it and hopefully he will. Medici Time was the other catching the eye and may be worthy of a saver.

x PyRo

2:05 York - Group Therapy - 2pts @ 9/1 (Ladbrokes)

Another David Barron selection for me here and whilst I don't think Group Therapy is ideally suited to this track (would prefer stiffer track), he's sure to be suited by the drop to Listed class. This former Jeremy Noseda trained 6 year old was picked up by connections for 85,000gns at the end of last year and moved to the Barron yard for his 2011 campaign. He hasn't cut much ice to date but he has shown more than enough to suggest that he could get involved at this level. His new trainer is more than capable of getting the best out of any animal and I feel it's only a matter of time before he finds the key to this often strong-finishing sprinter.

Group Therapy has only run 3 times for his new yard, the first of which came in the Group 3 Palace House Stakes at Newmarket in April. He pulled too hard under restraint and despite having previously went well fresh, he never stood a chance after that. Next time out in the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock, Group Therapy put in a much improved effort. There was a scorching pace up front and he settled much better this time, but got outpaced towards the rear of the field. However, he stayed on well to come within 3 lengths of the winner in 5th place (current favourite 1 length ahead in 4th) and I feel it was an effort that should entitle him to go close here. He has since run poorly at Royal Ascot and despite having no excuses, it was a Group 1 and he probably isn't good enough to compete in those.

The 9 year old veteran, Borderlescott, is the obvious danger to my selection. He ran well last twice and has finished ahead of Group Therapy on a couple of occasions, albeit not by far. I just think the price differential is too big and should be a lot closer. He'd be worthy of selection if he wasn't 7/2 and Barron's was a lot shorter than 9/1. It's a standout price and I'd be surprised if it held up all day. The rest of the opposition contains some decent yet average enough types and I think the pair I've mentioned could have the race between them. It's a sprint though and anything can happen in them. I just think the Barron/Crowley partnership could come up trumps here and 9/1 is much too big. Small stakes, as I hate backing in races that aren't handicaps.

x PyRo

2:40 York - Sabotage - 1pt e/w @ 20/1 (Ladbrokes)

The return to 1m 6f looks sure to suit Saeed Bin Suroor's Sabotage and I think he could be capable of lugging around 9st 13lbs to victory in this competitive handicap. He does look like a real stayer and despite having a poor strike-rate in the main, he's 1 from 1 when the wonderfully talented Mickael Barzalona is the man on his back. He takes the ride today for the first time since the pair won a 2m handicap out in Meydan last year and there could be a chance that they'll get back to winning ways here. The horse ran well over C&D as a 3 year old and although he flopped when tackling a Listed race over C&D last year, it does seem like the type of track he'll go well at again. He's 20/1 for a reason, but I feel it's too big.

Last time out, Sabotage tackled an 8 runner Listed contest at Newmarket. He was sent off as a 20/1 shot and wasn't expected to do too well, but in the end, he finished just 4½ lengths behind Jukebox Jury in 5th place. I think that run can be marked up significantly as the winner got to dictate a steady early gallop before quickening the tempo later on. The race wasn't run to suit a stayer at all and although a handicap is a very tough ask with a big weight on board, he comes here on the back of what has to be considered a very good effort. It was probably one of his best runs ever, so that's encouraging at least. He also seems to take his racing well, so the 2 week gap shouldn't pose any problems.

Dangers lie in wait all over the place. Fox Hunt has a great chance assuming he's still always trying. However, he's carrying top-weight and is half the price of my selection, which I can't have. Vulcanite could improve significantly yet and looks to have a solid chance, but he's only 10/1 also. Sabotage should be benefited by the return to this trip, he'll love the return to this track and the stylish Barzalona being back on board is yet another positive. He's 20/1 here and I think that's much too big. He's more than capable of getting involved in a race like this and he's sure to be running on when the rest are floundering. Small each-way stakes yet again. It's not easy to find any sort of solid betting proposition in these races. I think he's the best value in the race though and could give Godolphin another winner. 4 places are being paid too.

x PyRo

3:15 York - Green Destiny - 3pts @ 8/1 (Bet365)

I reckon some of the relatively unexposed 4 year old's are going to take this contest and Green Destiny is worth another chance despite failing to give his running last time out. Previously, William Haggas' charge had looked most impressive when routing a very strong 19 runner field at Newmarket in April. That was over 1m 1f on fast ground off a 12lb lower mark and whilst today's race will be a tough one to win, if he came here on the back of that effort you can be assured that he'd be a lot shorter than 8/1. I absolutely hate backing single figure prices in races like this, but this fellow has oceans of ability and should go well. The return to a fast surface may also suit.

Last time out, Green Destiny flopped when sent off as the strongly-supported 6/4 favourite in a 14 runner Listed handicap. However, he got mauled at the start and lost his prominent position. He then couldn't get past a wall of horses and after making some headway, he had nothing else to give. It was a most disappointing effort but I find it easy to forgive a run like that and things just conspired against him. With a bit of luck, he'll look the the potential Group horse that we witnessed at Newmarket back in April.

William Haggas has his string in fine order, with 9 of his last 33 runners landing the spoils. He also has a great record when coming down to York, so hopefully that'll be enhanced here. Today he sees fit to book Adam Beschizza, one of the finest claimers out there. He takes a very valuable 3lbs off the back of the lightly-raced Green Destiny and that's bound to help. I think he's an excellent jockey and is much better than Michael Hills, the man who was on board last twice. Beschizza has also ridden this fellow to victory before and that's yet another plus. I think the pair should go well here and 8/1 looks like a wonderful price. Medium stakes for me, as he shouldn't be this price and his previous run is easily forgiven. Pekan Star is the obvious danger as he won last time out despite meeting trouble. However, the price is just too short to bother with in a race of this nature. Even 8/1 is too skinny, it's just that I think he should be shorter again. Hopefully he'll go well, as he's potentially very, very useful.

x PyRo

I'd say that's enough!

Such a brilliant days racing ahead.

The_Kew_Tour

Will back these seeming like I have my flat to myself all day and can watch the races in peace:)

Mr E

Best of luck, xP.

x PyRo

Disaster averted, thank fuck. Green Destiny.

3ndahalfof6

won it in fine fashon, still 2 to go so good chance of ++++ points me thinks, well don sir.

x PyRo

Cheers mate, hardly a vintage day but the 18 point loss that was looking likely is now a 9 point profit at least. Relieved would be an understatement!

x PyRo

Hitchens places, 1/3 of the odds at 40/1. Lovely. Thought he was going to win it too!

This is a great day now!

The_Kew_Tour

The_Kew_Tour wrote: »

Will back these seeming like I have my flat to myself all day and can watch the races in peace:)

Thank you X PyRo

Got Green Destiny at 8/1 and Hitchen 40/1 e/w both at PP down the road from me..

Only horse I did outside your bets was Perken star..

Still have Addictive Dream to come so could out to be really good.

Up 34 quid now no matter what

x PyRo

Nice one mate, glad it paid off in the end. I feared the worst after the first five. Hope Addictive Dream can run well now and put the cherry on top of the icing.

On a side note ;



:pac:

The_Kew_Tour

x PyRo wrote: »

Nice one mate, glad it paid off in the end. I feared the worst after the first five. Hope Addictive Dream can run well now and put the cherry on top of the icing.

:pac:

Ya like you was thinking it was going be one those days...Normally if I back horses and first few don't run well none of them will, but was nice change..

x PyRo

At Newmarket, Commissar was poor in his race and never really stood a chance. He drifted to 16/1 before the off having messed about in the preliminaries and that run was probably expected. He's much better than his last couple of efforts and eventually it'll come together. One for the notebook.

Mont Agel was drawn well but Hayley Turner followed the rest in going to the other side. They wouldn't of won anyways but the jockey (and others) being a sheep cost the horse a chance of running a better race. He ran terribly and there can't be any complaints. It looks like he'll be one for the end of season handicaps when the ground is softer.

David Barron was correct, as Hitchens proved that he's up to running his race at Group 1 level. He traveled well but they didn't go overly quick up front, which isn't ideal for him. Once the tempo lifted, he used too much of his burst of speed just to stay in contention and had nothing left when running up the hill. A comfortable 3rd place was the final result and a +12.33pt profit was achieved from a 1pt e/w bet at 40/1, 1/3 odds for a place. Happy out and I think he'll be capable of continuing to go well at the top level. Barron has worked magic to have this 6 year old on the go all the time and constantly running well. He's a credit to the man. Brilliant trainer.

Over at Ascot, Mon Brav was subject to very strong support and was backed in to 10/1 from 22/1 last night. However, he ended up running in a very small bunch down the middle of the track and never stood a chance. He came home second last and ran a shocker. There's valid excuses though and this horse will be up to winning off this mark, so he's one to pursue with for a while yet. Disappointing effort from him but completely excusable.

Addictive Dream raced handily in his contest and was still bang there with a furlong to go. However, he just didn't kick on and there was probably too much use made of him early on. Given how things panned out, I'd of preferred to see him waited with but it wasn't to be. He's a very useful type and there's a big handicap in him someday. 5th place was all he could manage today but the return to 6f will suit and he's better than that.

At York, Group Therapy ran a solid race to come home in 5th place. I said I wasn't convinced that the track would suit and that's exactly how it played out, as David Barron's charge got going far too late at the speed orientated track. He needs more time to find his stride and the return to a stiffer track will suit. It was still a fine effort though and he was galloping and gaining ground all the way to the line. There's a Listed race in this fellow at the very least and that'll hopefully lead to him being more competitive in Group races after getting a confidence booster. He was also very weak in the market, so I doubt today was the day anyways.

Sabotage came home in 11th place and whilst it looks like a poor run on the face of it, he shaped quite well for a long time. He had to get over from a wide stall and raced wide for a good while. The pace wasn't strong, which is odd for a big field contest, and once the tempo quickened I thought the writing was on the wall for a dour stayer like him. He stuck to the task well for a long time though and was only fading away in the final furlong or so. A bit of leniency from the handicapper wouldn't go astray and some day he'll get into the winners enclosure again. I doubt it'll be on though, as he needs too many things in his favour.

My best bet of the day, Green Destiny, scooted in with relative ease. That's the third year in a row that I've had the winner of the race and it's been a lucky one for me. William Haggas' charge settled towards the rear of the field and was always traveling powerfully. He had to be reined back with a few furlongs to go as his jockey went for a gap that wasn't there but once he challenged down widest of all, he picked up impressively and won readily. He's a Group horse in waiting and today's performance was sublime, although the same can't be said for the commentator who hadn't even mentioned him until the race was won. +24.00pts from a 3pt bet at 8/1 and thank God one of my darts landed in the right place. Fantastic!

+23.33pts on the day and that's more like it. A winner and a place from no less than 8 bets isn't great going, but at least it was one of the strong selections who won and the big outsider who placed. I'm actually showing a profit to starting price now, which doesn't happen very often!

The profit to advised stands at +137.50pts and is steadily increasing. Monthly profit stands at +12.33pts Hopefully the rest of July will be kind to me and there's more winners to come. I'll update everything next week.

x PyRo

8:30 Sandown - Rastaban - 2pts @ 13/2 (Bet365)

Only 7 runners go to post here in what looks to be a reasonably competitive 3 year old contest. William Haggas comes down to Sandown with a single runner and he could go well. Rastaban, a maiden winner on his second of a couple of outings as a juvenile, comes here on the back of a disappointing effort over C&D, in which he was a very well-backed 4/1 favourite of 14. It wasn't a run void of promise though, as Haggas' charge was given far too much to do in the race by Johnny Murtagh.

Rastaban was held up a long way behind a very solid pace and it proved impossible for him to make an impression on the leaders. You'd think that it would suit a horse who was virtually assured to stay the trip but I think he's one who needs to grind down those in front and won't be capable of chasing from a long way back. The way he moved at various stages of the race was encouraging and although he shapes as if being in need of further than the 1m 2f trip that he faced then and now, things could prove to be more favourable today.

Mr Perceptive (a 16/1 shot then) finished in 2nd that day, a full 5 lengths ahead of Rastaban back in 8th place. However, the 4lb swing in the weights will help my selection and given how I think he under-performed that day, there should be enough in the tank to turn that form around. There's also a big price discrepancy, as the former mentioned is 3/1 and William Haggas' runner is 13/2. On the form of that race alone, it seems correct, but I'm pretty sure that the lightly-raced Rastaban will go on to be the better horse and if he's on the job today, he shouldn't be available at this price.

Aiken is currently holding favouritism at 2/1 and that looks phenomenally short. He's fairly well-related and from a good yard but both of his career runs have come on a softer surface and his last time out win was at Chester, which is a completely different proposition to what he faces here. He didn't achieve a whole pile either, as the ½ length 2nd is an average 69 rated animal. Gosden's runner should have a lot more to come, but the price isn't attractive on what is his handicap debut. Misty Isles was also an impressive and easy winner last time out, but that was at Brighton in a weak maiden. She looks useful but again, this is a different proposition and a mark of 79 may not make things easy. Her 4/1 price-tag wouldn't be for me.

Overall, Rastaban will probably need further in time and he's not one to place a whole lot of faith in. However, he looks likely to be suited to this smaller field contest. It's also a weaker race when compared to that of which he faced last time out. A good gallop to chase would be nice and isn't assured, so that has to be the main worry. I'm still willing to overlook that as he ran a cracker on his penultimate outing in a much tougher no-pace-race. His yard are in cracking form with 11 winners from their last 33 runners and Jamie Spencer is in a similar rich vein of form. The pairing boast a fine 20% strike-rate and this fellow is the only runner that Haggas sends out to Sandown. He will improve in time but a mark of 75 shouldn't be beyond him at all and conditions are suitable today. I think his price is a shade generous and I'd be surprised if he doesn't go off circa 4/1. Connections will be keen to get him off the mark sometime soon and this could prove to be an ideal opportunity. Small stakes though, as anything could happen. Hopefully he'll go well.

restingpilgrim

Backed him last time he ran. Terrible ride by Murtagh sitting well off the pace. Be prepared for Hugh Taylor tipping him so price might fall sharply.

Soarer

Already into 4's.