PyRo's Horse Bets.

Soarer

Backed him e/w @ 4's (amateur I know!), and got my stake back with the 2nd place finish.

Thanks Pyro!

scopper

Nothing amateurish about breaking even in this game.

x PyRo

Rastaban was subject to strong market-support yet again, eventually going off at 3/1. Original fears about a lack of pace came through as everyone was reluctant to take up the running. Despite missing the kick, my selection was able to make up the ground easily and get into the lead. He wasn't one bit happy in-front and the effort produced can be marked up significantly. It wasn't until the closing stages that he was caught and in the end, he finished a gallant second, beaten by just a head.

Haggas' horse most certainly needs a pace to run at and I feel we haven't seen the best of him yet. Jamie Spencer gave him a fine ride in the circumstances and it was a pity that the drifting Gosden horse proved to be quite useful. The form of the race is pretty pointless given how things panned out but Rastaban is sure to be up to winning off this mark. He's related to plenty of useful middle-distance horses and a step up in trip awaits. On the day, he was unlucky to be beat but he gave it a cracking effort and I can't complain. He has a wonderful attitude and will get his just deserts some day. Pity it wasn't today.

-2.00pts on the day. No harm done but it would of been a nice bank booster if he could of held on.

2:30 Hamilton - Jarrow - 3pts @ 7/1 (Bet365)

It's not easy to get to grips with this seemingly wide-open sprint handicap and every runner in the field comes with an element of risk if things pan out as I expect them to. However, if Dandy Nicholls' 4 year old, Jarrow, could return to his best, he's sure to have a say in the concluding stages. He's a former Mark Johnston trained animal and it's no surprise to see pieces of good and bad form littered across his record. Similar patterns have unfolded since joining this yard and whilst it's hard to know what animal will step forward today, he's potentially thrown in on his best.

Jarrow has run on 4 occasions since joining this yard for his third year of racing. The first was a decent 5th on very lively ground at Redcar, a race in which he traded at 1/5 in the run. He looked sure to come on for the run and duly stepped up on that effort when finishing 2nd in a 19 runner field over 6f at Doncaster. It probably wasn't the best big-field handicap out there but it was his best run for a long time, as he was running off 14lbs lower than his career-high mark of 90, achieved when winning easily on his 3 year old debut. A similar effort to that run at Doncaster would see him make the frame at least and now that he's tackling a much stiffer track, I feel things will be much more in his favour.

Connections decided to drop Jarrow back to 5 furlongs after that effort at Doncaster and that didn't pay dividends, as despite going off the well-backed 4/1 favourite in a competitive heat, he came stone-last. That track over the minimum trip was never going to suit and I feel passing over that run is the smartest thing to do. He shaped more encouragingly when chasing a strong pace last time out at Thirsk and wasn't fully shaken off until the final furlong. He also had an unfavourable draw and may not have had an ideal racing position, so the run could be better than the bare result. Again, I think the track was not suitable and Hamilton should see him in a much better light.

Jarrow is definitely going to strike for these connections soon and when the owners (Dab Hand Racing) come to this track, they seem to mean business, as 2 of theirs 4 runners have landed the spoils here. David Nicholls makes a long journey to run a couple of animals and the other is an unattractive sort in a claimer. Adrian Nicholls is only coming down to ride this fellow and he has been on board for all of his runs this year. I'm not a big fan of Adrian but when riding for these connections, he boasts a fine 22% strike-rate and a +£48 LSP. They could mean business today and I think the horse has nothing to fear here.

Red Cape is a good horse but doesn't win very often. He's currently favourite, which isn't right. Mandalay King is in good form but steps up in trip and class. He also has to overcome a career-high mark and yet he's holding second favouritism at the moment. A few others have a chance and despite the betting suggesting it's a wide-open affair, it's really not. If Jarrow runs to his best, he wins. I'm not saying he will run to his best, but there's a chance that he could and 7/1 is too big. Medium stakes for me and with a bit of luck, he'll be getting involved.

prospect

Put 2.5e/w on Rastaban, took back a profit of 0.62

Better than nothing

Soarer

Massive manlove coming your way!

getonmyhorse

Legend!!!

x PyRo

Happy out!

Iluvjazzmasters

Thanks Pyro, your a gentleman with taking time out to post your tips time and time again! A pint for you if your ever in Kildare!:D

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

Happy out!

Anything else tickle your fancy today?

x PyRo

Iluvjazzmasters wrote: »

Thanks Pyro, your a gentleman with taking time out to post your tips time and time again! A pint for you if your ever in Kildare!:D

Cheers mate, I've very little else to do so it's good fun! Great buzz when they win too.

Soarer wrote: »

Anything else tickle your fancy today?

Not really mate, was going to back Catalyze at Epsom but can't be too confident so I left it. I'll avoid getting greedy!

Soarer

x PyRo wrote: »

Not really mate, was going to back Catalyze at Epsom but can't be too confident so I left it. I'll avoid getting greedy!

So what you're saying is 4pts win on Catalyze @ 7/1?

Soarer

I love when "not confident" tips place!;)

x PyRo

Should of won it. Just paid for chasing the pace too much. Well-backed though and today was the day. Keep an eye on him. Will win soon.

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Not a bad Thursday at the office and it made up for the second place on Wednesday. Jarrow was subject to the usual jinxing by Hugh Taylor (we never click!) but it couldn't stop him gaining a ready success at a track that's ideal for him. Adrian Nicholls had him settled well in rear and when everyone else was rowing along, he was still traveling well on board this previously more than useful 4 year old. When popped the question, he showed a nice turn of foot to sweep past the long time leaders and score comfortably.

The pacesetters were not coming back to him, so I feel this effort can be marked up significantly and he could be competitive in useful sprints when things fall his way. I give Nicholls enough criticism when he doesn't ride too well but he got it spot on here. Great ride, great horse and a great price (was never a 7/1 shot). One bet, one winner and no complaints for once!

+21.00pts on a very, very good day. July is rolling along nicely as I'm +33.33pts for the month and showing a ROI of 68%. It's a pity all of this will come to a crashing end once the NH season starts again!

7:45 Hamilton - Mister Hughie - 2pts e/w @ 16/1 (PaddyPower)

There's a few other races to go through yet but I'm going to kick things off with the John Smith's Scottish Stewards' Cup. This Class 2, 6f Handicap is quite competitive and it'll be hard to land on the winner. In the past, it has paid dividends to side with those who don't carry the burden of much weight on their backs. Regardless of that, I'm doing the opposite here by siding with my old friend, Mister Hughie. This talented 4 year old looks to face a tough task in a bit to defy a mark of 100 and a racing weight of 9st 10lbs. However, I'm of the opinion that he's up to Group level if racing on a stiff track, so it'd be silly not to back him in a handicap at a stiff track. 16/1 vastly overstates his chances and if he is let rip, there's a fair chance he'll be flying late in a bid to gain career success number 6 at the 27th attempt.

There's no doubting that Mister Hughie has class and despite looking badly out of form during 2011, he ran much better last time out in a Listed contest over the flying 5 furlongs at York. A track like that really suits the speedy types and he just can't warm up in time. It was very encouraging though, as the recent Tim Easterby recruit was flying at the death and finished in 6th place, just 3¼ lengths behind the winner. The losing distance sounds like a lot in a 5f sprint but this was the first time he had run a creditable race over a speedy 5f since finishing an unlucky-in-running 1 length 4th to Borderlescott in the King George at Goodwood last year. That's a Group 2 contest and adds further proof that this horse can be a potent force when things fall his way. The effort can be marked up significantly too, as the Goodwood track just isn't for him.

Mister Hughie showed next to nothing in his first 3 outings since leaving Mick Channon to join Tim Easterby's yard. The only form of worth since joining this yard is his run last time out and I feel it's more than enough to be relatively confident here. He's warming to the task nicely and the return to a stiff 6f could be a smart move. He's equally effective when running over a stiff 5f, as seen when beating Prohibit in impressive fashion last year in a Listed contest at Beverley. However, he'll need plenty of time to peg back the leaders at a place like Hamilton and I feel this trip, at this track, is ideal. The ground will be no issue as he likes it fast and he also landed a 6f Handicap off a 5lb lower mark at the stiff Newmarket track last year.

Everything is pointing towards a big run here and Tim Easterby is making a 400 mile round trip to run just one horse, so hopefully he means business. He boasts a fine course record having had 16% of his runners enter the winners enclosure. From his last 6 runners here, 3 have won and a further 2 have finished second. It has obviously been a happy hunting ground for the yard and although Mister Hughie disappointed in a 3 runner affair on his only C&D run (needs cover, couldn't get it), he's bound to love the place as the fast pace and mid-race cover that he needs is virtually assured. His stiff track form is brilliant too and hopefully he'll make it even better here.

Strong handling is a must for him and Daniel Thudhope is the man in the driving seat today. He has impressed me on numerous occasions this year and should prove to be an ideal partner for this quirky animal. The pair are likely to be out towards the rear of the field struggling to go the pace, but once the horse finds his stride, they're sure to be powering home in the dying stages. He likes a long, testing run-in here and that's what he'll get on this straight track. If he's trying, I fail to see how he can't get involved and medium each-way stakes are the order of the day. Of the rest, previous selection Colonel Mak should be a contender in an attempt to make it 3 from 3 at the course. I just get the feeling that a bit of cut would do him no harm and the fact that he hasn't shown too much of his usual zip of late is quite disappointing. He's worthy of a stake saver though and 12/1 is too big. Regardless, Mister Hughie is the main selection and one I expect to see run a big race. He's got loads of talent and still holds a Group 3 entry for next month, so connections must expect a handicap to be within his grasp. 16/1 here is about twice the price that I feel he should be. Worries are whether he's fully tuned up for this and if he's able to lug that weight to victory. I'll take my chances though and hopefully he'll go well. 4 places are also being paid as it stands.

x PyRo

Feck it, one will do. Going to rape the bookies on Saturday instead.

prospect

Drew a 0.66 profit on Catalyse, even your non-tips are money making.

All Hail...

LightningBolt

Mister Hughie a non-runner today. Backed last night and just checked again to see if the price had changed...

x PyRo

Gutted that he's a non-runner. Really fancied him today.

Would actually side with We Have A Dream in that race now and The Galloping Shoe shouldn't be 14/1 in the race after. Although money for Union Island looks ominous.

Not going to bother backing anything until tomorrow. Been going through the cards and it looks impossible.

Derek!

It was a real shame about Mister Hughie not runnin today after you goin to the trouble of doin a big write up
Goodluck with tomorrows picks though, hopefully you make some money

x PyRo

It's annoying but that's how she goes. Cheers dude, hopefully there's some luck in the offing.

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2:20 Newbury - Markab - 2pts @ 11/2 (Ladbrokes)

10 runners go to post for this 6 furlong, Group 3 contest and Henry Candy's 8 year old, Markab, is fancied to bounce back to form. On the face of it, he has been disappointing on both of his outings this year but I believe they're easily excused and a return to anything remotely near the form of when he won the Group 1 Betfred Sprint Cup at Haydock last year would see him win this. The main worry is potential rain getting into the ground and ruining his chances, as good-to-firm ground brings out the best in him. I still feel he's a class above these rivals and it's a risk worth taking, although I'm playing smaller stakes than I usually would on a horse that I think should land the spoils. The ground is just too much of a worry to go in any bigger.

Regardless of that, Markab is still worth siding with. He should be freshened up sufficiently on the back of an 8 week break since putting in a pair of poor performances. The first of those was in the Group 2 Duke Of York Stakes and he was expected to be in need of the run. Also, the 5lb Group 1 penalty didn't help him and all in all, it was a fairly satisfactory seasonal debut for a horse in need of a pipe-opener. Connections decided to drop him back in trip to tackle the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock just 10 days later and given the fact that he has never won over the minimum trip, it was never going to suit. He also had to contend with a 7lb penalty for that race and it was a much tougher race than what he faces today.

With the return to 6f combined with the return to Group 3 company, minus a penalty, Markab could potentially win this easily. I don't think there's a whole lot to beat here and only a few can be given realistic chances of getting involved. If the ground held up and it was genuinely fast, this would be max bet territory. Overall, Markab has only had 2 runs in Group races over 6f when the ground has been fast. Both of those runs ended in impressive victories for this animal. He's 8 years old and may be expected to be on the downgrade, but considering he hadn't even won a Group race until last year, he may be capable of winning another couple. He's got plenty of speed and a good attitude, so he's always worthy of respect at this level, regardless of his recent form. Again, the ground is the only thing that could scupper his chances.

Of the rest, Deacon Blues is on the upgrade and worthy of respect. However, 3/1 about a horse who won a handicap off 98 last time out just isn't appealing. He's entitled to progress yet again and it was a hot-handicap, but that's not a fair price in my opinion. There's not a whole pile between top-level handicap sprinters and low-level Group sprinters, but previous to that win, he was rated 20lbs below my selection and is still rated 11lbs inferior. I'd rather oppose, as I think he's vulnerable here. Pastoral Player is talented and worth his place in this field, but ultimately, I don't think he's as good as Markab, yet he's a shorter price. A couple of others could have cases made for them but I'll play small win stakes on Henry Candy's charge. At his best, in his conditions, he'd rout this field and although he disappointed when favourite in this contest last year, he could make it second time lucky. 11/2 is a cracking price about a horse that I think should be favourite and the ground is the only thing that will cause him to lose. If it lashes down, Regal Parade is the one to be on.

x PyRo

4:05 Newbury - Dux Scholar - 4pts @ 9/2 (PaddyPower)

I won't make millions backing 9/2 shots but I think there's a very strong case to be made for Dux Scholar. This lightly-raced Michael Stoute trained 3 year old was a very useful juvenile and should of managed to pick up a couple of Group 3 races. He was produced too early in the first and hung away his chances in the second before getting nabbed on the line. However, it's clear that he's very, very useful and should take all of the beating here. Connections obviously think a lot of him and he still holds an entry in the Group 1 Celebration Mile at Goodwood next month. If he's to go there with any hope at all, victory will have achieved here in an impressive manner. Although this is over 2f further and it's the first time that he'll race past a mile.

Dux Scholar has plenty of speed, more than enough for a mile, but this step up in trip does look interesting. He has always shaped as if he'd stay further and breeding suggests that he'll get plenty of stamina from his dam's side. This is a relatively easy, galloping track and he ran a cracker on his final juvenile start over 7f at this course. That run was in one of the previously mentioned Group 3 outings and Stoute's charge was only caught in the final strides of the contest. That trip isn't exactly ideal either and at least we know he'll enjoy it around here again.

Dux Scholar looked as if he'd need an outing when he lined up in a Listed race at Windsor on reappearance this year. However, he ran a cracking race to finish a ¼ length 3rd to Nationalism, just losing out in a photo. He was receiving weight all round there and he probably was entitled to finish close anyways. They went a good clip in that race and the pace wasn't giving way, so to see him sprout wings from the rear of the field and close to within the smallest of margins was very encouraging. He showed a great attitude in the process and there's sure to be more to come from this talented 3 year old. With race fitness being improved and a step up in trip being an interesting move, I think he should take all of the beating here. He's still capable of mixing it in Group races and although there's some useful types lining up too, I think he's the best of the lot.

Dux Scholar is also in receipt of 10lbs from the older colts and at the weights, he's expected to have a say in things. I think it's time to take on the older horses with the classic generation and Michael Stoute's runner bids to give him another win in the race. He last won it with a 3 year old in 2006 and I'm hopeful that it'll be a similar result here. There's nothing in the field to fear and the French colt, who I know nothing about, is the only one I'd really fear. He hasn't run for a long time though and may be vulnerable too. Overall, Dux Scholar shaped so well last time out that I think he's going to run another cracking race. The trip should suit, any ground will suit and the opposition shouldn't be too much of a concern. 9/2 is a great price and I'll play borderline maximum stakes on him landing the spoils.

x PyRo

No more. Impossible punting day.

x PyRo

Rain has hit Newbury. If the ground stays GF I'll be shocked.

Will do Dux no problem (9/2 will be disappearing soon) but anyone thinking about siding with Markab can probably forget about it imo. I'd say he'll be taking a walk in the market soon.

/sleeps

Edit : Candy says rain will do him no harm. Don't buy that myself. That Tanya one on The Morning Line gave him the kiss of death anyway.

/re-sleeps

ft9

Come on Dux....!

x PyRo

Jinx.

x PyRo

BOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOM.

ft9

Dux wins!

Yardie

Great stuff PyRo!

ft9

Lucky charm more like!

mailburner

pyro you legend
thank you very much
the 4pts caught my eye last nite and
i took the 9/2
great picking

SteelyDanJalapeno

ya beaut!